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Observer Research Foundation (ORF)

Founded in the 1990s, Observer Research Foundation aims to: aid and impact policy formulation and evolve policy alternatives; create a climate conducive to effective policy implementation; strengthen India's democratic institutions to enable coherent, reasoned and consistent policy-making; provide reasoned and consensual inputs representing a broad section of opinion to improve governance, accelerate economic development and ensure a better quality of life for all Indians; monitor the strategic environment; work to achieve international peace, harmony and cooperation; and give direction to Indian foreign policy.

6 articles from Observer Research Foundation (ORF)

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4 pathways to cooperation amid geopolitical fragmentation

What India’s G20 presidency tells us about its approach to geopolitics

5 experts on how to advance global peace and stability in a new era of geopolitics 

Setting a path to green, resilient and inclusive development

Global trade after COVID-19: From fixed capital to human capital

Geopolitics and investment in emerging markets after COVID-19

Strategic Outlook on Geopolitics

An intensifying climate crisis, fragile global economy, and the emergence of critical questions around frontier technologies are converging against the backdrop of a deteriorating securit...

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Samir Saran

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Anti-semitic attitudes of the mass public: estimates and explanations based on a survey of the moscow oblast.

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JAMES L. GIBSON, RAYMOND M. DUCH, ANTI-SEMITIC ATTITUDES OF THE MASS PUBLIC: ESTIMATES AND EXPLANATIONS BASED ON A SURVEY OF THE MOSCOW OBLAST, Public Opinion Quarterly , Volume 56, Issue 1, SPRING 1992, Pages 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1086/269293

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In this article we examine anti-Semitism as expressed by a sample of residents of the Moscow Oblast (Soviet Union). Based on a survey conducted in 1920, we begin by describing anti-Jewish prejudice and support for official discrimination against Jews. We discover a surprisingly low level of expressed anti-Semitism among these Soviet respondents and virtually no support for state policies that discriminate against Jews. At the same time, many of the conventional hypotheses predicting anti-Semitism are supported in the Soviet case. Anti-Semitism is concentrated among those with lower levels of education, those whose personal financial condition is deteriorating, and those who oppose further democratization of the Soviet Union. We do not take these findings as evidence that anti-Semitism is a trivial problem in the Soviet Union but, rather, suggest that efforts to combat anti-Jewish movements would likely receive considerable support from ordinary Soviet people.

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Where to watch movies for free in Moscow this summer

People watching a movie in a Pioner 24-hour open-air cinema in Gorky Park.

Temporary cinemas will be popping up across Moscow very soon, starting from July 16. All of the spots are brilliant examples of either constructivist or avant-garde architecture, so expect striking settings. A selection of classic Soviet films will be aired using cinematic equipment from the last century. All the screenings are free although online registration is required beforehand, while there will also be guided tours of the spaces, organized by the “Moscow through the Engineer's Eyes” company.

Registration will be open soon at mos-kino.ru

Bread factory

Following the success of former factories transformed into art spaces (VinZavod, Arma, Trekhgornaya manufacture), Khlebzavod (“bread factory”) No 9 is one newly opened joint that is attracting creative types from all over the city. The movie Time! Forward! will be screened in the building’s boiler room on July 16. It follows workers from the Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, one of the largest steel companies in Russia, and is based on a novel by Soviet writer Valentin Kataev.

What’s more, Khlebzavod is a monument to constructivist architecture. Where better to watch such a film?

Novodmitrovskaya St. 1

Roof of the Narkomfin Building

The Narkomfin Building was originally designed to house high ranking employees at the Commissariat of Finance. It was built by architects Moisei Ginsburg and Ignaty Milinis. Also a fine example of constructivism, it’s currently in a state of disrepair, locked down, and fairly difficult to get into - which is like a red flag to a bull for more adventurous types.

However, on July 30 the place will be opened up and people will be welcomed onto the roof to watch the film Faith and Truth.

Novinsky Blvrd . 25b1

Khrushchyovka courtyard

A courtyard located in the 9th experimental block of the Novye Cheremushki district will turn into an outdoor cinema this summer. Cheremushki is the first district where Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchyov decided to build the iconic Khrushchyovka apartment blocks in the 1950s. As a result, thousands of Russians were given their own pads after decades living huddled together in communal apartments known as kommunalka .

Cheremushki is the adapted film-version of Dmitry Shostakovich’s operetta and will be shown here on Aug. 6. The organizers of the multiple screenings - the Moskino cinema chain - say they will revive the Soviet tradition of neighbors meeting in courtyards for a good old tongue wag. There will also be a guided tour of the block.

Address to be confirmed at mos-kino.ru

Pioneers Palace

If you want a slice of the postwar Soviet avant-garde style, head to the Pioneers Palace at Vorobyevy Gory. Pioneers Palaces were youth centers for sport, creativity, and hobbies for Young Pioneers (a communist organization for children) during the Soviet Union. There were dance classes, martial arts, drawing, and many other activities.

To Love a Man , a movie about two young architects building a new town in Siberia, will be shown here on Aug. 22. There will also be a lecture about building experiments in the 20th century.

Kosygina St. 17b2

A secret place

The last cinema venue remains a secret. On Aug. 27 there will be a screening, but at the moment no one knows where. Information will appear on mos-kino.ru but those who attend all four screenings above will be able to guess the last location.

A talk about architecture and Soviet history also will be hosted here.

The Unique Burial of a Child of Early Scythian Time at the Cemetery of Saryg-Bulun (Tuva)

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Pages:  379-406

In 1988, the Tuvan Archaeological Expedition (led by M. E. Kilunovskaya and V. A. Semenov) discovered a unique burial of the early Iron Age at Saryg-Bulun in Central Tuva. There are two burial mounds of the Aldy-Bel culture dated by 7th century BC. Within the barrows, which adjoined one another, forming a figure-of-eight, there were discovered 7 burials, from which a representative collection of artifacts was recovered. Burial 5 was the most unique, it was found in a coffin made of a larch trunk, with a tightly closed lid. Due to the preservative properties of larch and lack of air access, the coffin contained a well-preserved mummy of a child with an accompanying set of grave goods. The interred individual retained the skin on his face and had a leather headdress painted with red pigment and a coat, sewn from jerboa fur. The coat was belted with a leather belt with bronze ornaments and buckles. Besides that, a leather quiver with arrows with the shafts decorated with painted ornaments, fully preserved battle pick and a bow were buried in the coffin. Unexpectedly, the full-genomic analysis, showed that the individual was female. This fact opens a new aspect in the study of the social history of the Scythian society and perhaps brings us back to the myth of the Amazons, discussed by Herodotus. Of course, this discovery is unique in its preservation for the Scythian culture of Tuva and requires careful study and conservation.

Keywords: Tuva, Early Iron Age, early Scythian period, Aldy-Bel culture, barrow, burial in the coffin, mummy, full genome sequencing, aDNA

Information about authors: Marina Kilunovskaya (Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation). Candidate of Historical Sciences. Institute for the History of Material Culture of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Dvortsovaya Emb., 18, Saint Petersburg, 191186, Russian Federation E-mail: [email protected] Vladimir Semenov (Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation). Candidate of Historical Sciences. Institute for the History of Material Culture of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Dvortsovaya Emb., 18, Saint Petersburg, 191186, Russian Federation E-mail: [email protected] Varvara Busova  (Moscow, Russian Federation).  (Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation). Institute for the History of Material Culture of the Russian Academy of Sciences.  Dvortsovaya Emb., 18, Saint Petersburg, 191186, Russian Federation E-mail:  [email protected] Kharis Mustafin  (Moscow, Russian Federation). Candidate of Technical Sciences. Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology.  Institutsky Lane, 9, Dolgoprudny, 141701, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation E-mail:  [email protected] Irina Alborova  (Moscow, Russian Federation). Candidate of Biological Sciences. Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology.  Institutsky Lane, 9, Dolgoprudny, 141701, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation E-mail:  [email protected] Alina Matzvai  (Moscow, Russian Federation). Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology.  Institutsky Lane, 9, Dolgoprudny, 141701, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation E-mail:  [email protected]

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Assessing South Korea's nuclear dilemma amid Pyongyang’s live-drills

Author : Abhishek Kumar Singh

Expert Speak Raisina Debates

Published on jan 18, 2024.

The continuous threat from Pyongyang is pushing Seoul towards developing its indigenous nuclear defense

Amidst the ongoing conflicts between Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas, the Korean Peninsula also faces a persistent crisis due to North Korea's continual nuclear rhetoric. The recent artillery shells fired by Pyongyang near the sea border have created a furore in the region. According to Seoul, Pyongyang fired over  350 rounds of artillery over the last weekend. The firing was a reaction to the military activities conducted by what was referred to as South Korea's ‘ military gangsters ’ and the border-based drill exercises. Moreover, the launch of the Hwasong-18 , an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in December 2023, and the declaration of a nuclear attack ‘ anytime ’ has marked a significant development. Kim Jong-Un also reiterated the threat to nuke the United States (US) if provoked and asserted that the launch was due to military confrontation hysteria against the former.

The firing was a reaction to the military activities conducted by what was referred to as South Korea's ‘military gangsters’ and the border-based drill exercises.

The recent heightened threat is particularly concerning for South Korea. Even in 2022, over 70 missiles were fired by Pyongyang leading to an increased demand for developing nuclear weapons by the South Korean public. This piece explores Seoul’s complexities of grappling with a nuclear challenge, domestic pressure for greater autonomy, external threats, and the developing facets of international security.  

Navigating Seoul’s nuclear dilemma  

Seoul depended largely on Washington for its security , however, in the post-Cold War era, to gain economic benefits and counter Pyongyang’s rising threat, it started engaging with Beijing. Seoul’s accommodating foreign policy has not allowed it to strike a balance between its alliance and autonomy, making it tougher to navigate its foreign policy independently, especially its nuclear policy. In light of growing Pyongyang’s nuclear threat, Seoul has found itself in a web of geopolitical situations depicting its complex and multifaceted nuclear issue.  

To independently navigate its foreign policy, Seoul has been actively involved in multiple diplomatic engagements such as establishing closer ties with the QUAD and being vocal against Beijing’s aggressions, and multilateral initiatives like the New Southern Policy, and Indo-Pacific Strategy. South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol also recently discussed the potential for South Korea to develop its nuclear weapons or reintroduce US tactical nuclear weapons to counter the exponential rise of North Korea’s nuclear threat. Previously under Park Chung-Hee's rule, Seoul had initiated developing nuclear weapons only to get curtailed by Washington. Although Yoon has rejected the call for immediate nuclearisation, his statements have reshaped and initiated the domestic discourse on the country’s nuclear ambitions. Thus, it is important to explore the intricacies of this situation, considering the continuous threat posed by Pyongyang, internal factors pushing Seoul towards a nuclear defense, and the external factors advising caution.  

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol also recently discussed the potential for South Korea to develop its nuclear weapons or reintroduce US tactical nuclear weapons to counter the exponential rise of North Korea’s nuclear threat.

Domestic pressures: Security anxieties and a desire for autonomy

North Korea's looming nuclear shadow: A looming nuclear threat on Seoul emerges as Pyongyang persists in its missile barrage and unwavering pursuit of nuclear weapons. Pyongyang's invariable rhetoric of a nuclear attack was amplified after the former fired dozens of missiles toward Seoul in November 2022. One of the missiles landed in South Korean territory, the island of Ulleungdo, for the first time since the end of the Korean War (1950-53). These missile launches heightened tensions, prompting the South Korean government to issue an air-raid warning on the island. This had a significant impact on South Koreans with polls showing a noticeable increase in support for developing its indigenous nuclear defense.

A survey carried out by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies revealed that 64.3 percent of Koreans vouch for independently developing nuclear weapons. Additionally, a joint survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies indicates that over 70 percent of Koreans favour the idea of their state developing nuclear capabilities in response to rising nuclear threats. This sentiment is heightened by Pyongyang’s blitzkrieg of missile attacks on Seoul and its revamped nuclear strategy, reinforcing the perceived necessity for indigenous nuclear weapons.

Source: The Asan Institute for Policy Studies (2010-2020, 2022); Chicago Council on Global Affairs (2021)

Chinese belligerence: Beijing, as a longstanding supporter of Pyongyang, has heightened tensions by endorsing the Kim regime. This position is further exacerbated by China's recent declaration of a renewed threat to invade Taiwan. In case of an invasion of Taiwan, China might leverage North Korea's defense power to unlock an additional military front , creating a dual threat for both the US and South Korea. This particular strategy will discourage the US from getting involved in the Taiwan dispute. Furthermore, Beijing’s strong objection to the installment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in Seoul, followed by punitive economic coercions has greatly restricted Seoul's ability to deter and shield its security and economy. As a result, the South Koreans are considering China as a significant threat in the coming hence, want nuclear weapons to tackle the dual threats.

In case of an invasion of Taiwan, China might leverage North Korea's defense power to unlock an additional military front , creating a dual threat for both the US and South Korea.

Eroding trust in the US nuclear umbrella: The protracted dependence on the US nuclear umbrella has encountered challenges attributed to perceived inconsistencies in American commitment. Notably, the “ America First ” policies of the Trump administration, which included the proposal to withdraw up to 4,000 US troops from South Korea for financial reasons and an ambiguous stance on denuclearisation, have engendered apprehensions regarding the reliability of the nuclear umbrella. These developments have fuelled pro-nuclear sentiments within South Korea.

Despite the recently signed Washington Declaration , aimed at mitigating the nuclear threat by deploying nuclear-armed submarines in South Korea, it has not adequately addressed concerns among South Koreans regarding the US's ability to fully and credibly commit to their security, thus sustaining a robust nuclear debate in the country. There is a genuine concern that the US will prioritise its cities and citizens' safety over those of Koreans, prompting contemplation of developing indigenous nuclear capabilities. Furthermore, potential nuclear technology sharing between Russia and North Korea raises the possibility of South Korea seeking to revise alliance agreements to initiate a nuclear-powered submarine programme, referred to as an SSN programme. Gabriela Bernal, an independent DPRK watcher, suggests that if South Korea perceives abandonment by the US, there is a likelihood of future disregard for US wishes and a pursuit of the nuclear option to safeguard its security.

Technological prowess and nationalist aspirations: The momentum behind the proposal to develop nuclear weapons surged following the rejection by the US of President Yoon's suggestions, either to redeploy US tactical nuclear weapons to the peninsula or for South Korea to acquire its independent nuclear capabilities. This has fuelled a growing sentiment of national pride and a desire for strategic autonomy, bolstering arguments in favour of an indigenous nuclear programme. Additionally, South Korea possesses advanced scientific and technological capabilities crucial for potential nuclear weapons development, providing the country with greater control over its nuclear policies. However, the feasibility of South Korea emerging as a nuclear power in the current global context necessitates careful reconsideration, introducing uncertainties to the prospect of developing nuclear weapons at this juncture.

South Korea possesses advanced scientific and technological capabilities crucial for potential nuclear weapons development, providing the country with greater control over its nuclear policies.

Traversing the tightrope: Finding a sustainable solution

The nuclear predicament in South Korea reflects the wider challenges of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. Effectively addressing this requires South Korea to skillfully blend diplomatic efforts, regional collaboration, and a strong conventional defense, ensuring a secure future for both the nation and the broader region.  

Revitalising the alliance can assuage South Korea's security concerns through intensified security cooperation, joint military exercises, and a renewed commitment to extended deterrence, thus obviating the need for nuclear armament. In this vein, South Korea and the US recently finalised the establishment of guidelines for the planning and execution of a joint nuclear strategy by mid-2024. These guidelines encompass a broad spectrum of issues, including the sharing of sensitive nuclear information, the establishment of a pertinent security system, the formulation of consultation procedures for nuclear crises, the operation of a real-time leader-level communication channel, and plans for managing crises and reducing risks

Moreover, above bolstering Seoul's defense potential, there is an important need for an increased focus on addressing nuclear threat denuclearisation through  multilateral platforms like G20, United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and diplomatic efforts such as increased trilateral cooperation between South Korea, Japan, and the US, and the proposed resumption of trilateral talks between China, South Korea, and Japan. In addition, Seoul’s quest for inclusion in the Quad umbrella to discuss denuclearisation talks will apply pressure on Pyongyang beyond international sanctions. Although complete denuclearisation is not guaranteed, these efforts have the potential to reduce rhetoric and promote discussions on denuclearization.

Revitalising the alliance can assuage South Korea's security concerns through intensified security cooperation, joint military exercises, and a renewed commitment to extended deterrence, thus obviating the need for nuclear armament.

Although Yoon's recent weighing on nuclear development and striving to broaden diplomatic ties portrays Seoul’s refined strategic approach. However, to navigate this impending situation, a subtle balance must be maintained between the US-Korea nuclear alliance, addressing domestic security concerns, and engagement in diplomatic initiatives. The support of the US is important but even if the current US administration embraces a traditional method and offers reassurances to Korea, policymakers must remain vigilant of the future US administrations' different approaches post-US elections in 2024. Seoul’s challenge lies in finding a refined and comprehensive method that ensures its security and contributes to broader regional stability. Furthermore, South Korea’s economy is export-driven and any attempt of developing nuclear weapons can cripple its economy as it will be highly vulnerable to international sanctions. Moreover, it will destabilise regional security, promote an arms race, jeopardise its global standing, and aim to become a middle power. Therefore, the stance on developing nuclear weapons, despite being the best solution, remains vague but the demand will continue to grow in the future.

Abhishek Kumar Singh is a doctoral candidate in IR at Kookmin University Seoul.

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Abhishek Kumar Singh

Abhishek Kumar Singh is a PhD Candidate in IR at Kookmin University Seoul on a GKS scholarship. He worked as a RA under an Indian ...

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