icici securities research report pdf

• Research Methodology
• Market Insights
• Investment strategy July 2022

In today's era of knowledge economy and seamless connectivity, we are increasingly being burdened with an overload of information. Solicited or unsolicited information is inundating us through various channels like newspapers, magazines, television, e-mails, websites etc. It is important to breakthrough the clutter and get timely actionable advice which can be executed

ICICI Securities is dedicated to provide objective, independent and actionable research to our clients across various asset classes to help them make informed financial decisions. Our approach is a mix of top down and bottom up where we track the macro indicators to identify investment themes that are playing out. At the same time, we do extensive product research to ensure that we only advise the best in class products to our clients in each asset class. This approach ensures that we identify not only the correct investment theme but also the most suitable product to invest in the theme.

The best minds in the organization sit across the table every month to track the domestic and global macro environment in our meeting after monthly investment committee to ensure that we are up the curve in spotting investment themes to invest or avoid. Our investment committee consists of research heads from our institutional equity, retail, and I-SEC PD along with business heads of the ICICI Securities, Private wealth and retail business. This is further supplemented by inviting a renowned fund manager from the industry. This committee meets with a single point agenda of tracking the macro–economic environment and identify trends which can give actionable advice to our clients.

The investment committee is complemented by our stringent research across equity markets and different product classes.

Direct Equity

Our experienced and award wining research team of over 40 analyst offers timely and unparalleled company and industry insight on base of rigorous analysis. It is one of the widest coverage in domestic industry, with active coverage on about 200 companies across 16 sectors in large/mid/small cap universe. Another key aspect of our research is the monthly and thematic reports on various sectors, keeping the client up-to-date with the latest developments in the sector.

Our team is grouped into smaller teams, specializing in particular industry and sectors. This sector focus allows the analyst to maintain detailed level of knowledge of key drivers of each sector.

Each recommendation is backed by rigorous and in-depth analysis of not only the company's financials but also the management quality and depth, competitors and other external factors impacting the stock price. This ensures due weightage to both qualitative and quantitative factors. Regular interaction with company managements and various other stakeholders help our research analysts develop view on stocks and equip them to foresee upcoming trends well in advance to benefit our clients.

Our fundamental equity research combines expertise with innovative strategies to offer broad range of products including Model Portfolios, Monthly investment strategy, Equity tracker, Pick of the week, sector specific monthly reports, event and result updates and detailed company report.

Mutual Funds

We research mutual funds through a proprietary research methodology which evaluates the schemes and AMC across a wide range of parameters. These parameters are further supplemented by our view across different sectors as well as alignment with our overall investment theme in our investment committee. Some of the parameters used to filter and select mutual funds are portfolio risk and liquidity, risk adjusted returns, returns across various market cycles, past performance of the AMC in the asset class etc. The fund selection is further backed by interaction with the fund managers of the selected schemes on an ongoing basis to monitor their portfolio strategy and performance.

Managed Accounts

Selection on the PMS platform covers the following four broad parameters:

Research & Fund Management – Our selection process includes evaluating the qualification and experience of the investment and research team and their ability to conduct primary research and identify multi-baggers for clients.

Performance evaluation – Consistency of performance across market cycles and performance relative to peer group (PMS / MF) is evaluated for the scheme and the fund manager

Investment Strategy – The suitability of the investment strategy to client portfolios as well as its compatibility with I-Sec's investment outlook is considered along with the resilience of the strategy across market cycles.

Risk control guidelines – We evaluate the risk controls and guidelines followed by the selected scheme and AMC

Alternate Investments

Fund selection for alternate investments encompasses the following main themes:

Investment theme and strategy – Since alternate investment funds are usually longer-tenure products, we evaluate the theme of the fund in terms of novelty, suitability to the client's portfolio and availability of the proposition through other investing platforms.

Strength and experience of Investment Team – Alternate investment funds usually hold concentrated portfolios of 8 – 12 underlying investments of a tenure of 3 – 5 years, the selection and management of the underlying investments becomes crucial to performance. In our evaluation of the fund, we place strong importance on the background and experience of the fund team in investing, managing and exiting such deals and their ability and incentives to work together as a unit.

Portfolio construction and implementation strategy – The fund's ability and process of sourcing deals, evaluating them, investing in them and eventually, exiting them directly impacts investor returns – making this factor an important one in our evaluation.

Background and expertise of Fund House – The presence and experience of the parent group / fund house is also considered since it impacts the fund's ability of raise money from investors, and also, source, negotiate, manage and exit underlying investment deals.

Asset linked Debentures

Since structured products can be customized to take a specific view on any asset class, our selection framework comprises of the following two parameters:

Product Strategy – The prime parameter for selection of a strategy is its fit with our in-house investment outlook so that an investor in the product is able to successfully play out the view on an asset that has been taken.

Issuer profile – Structured products are issued in the form of asset-linked debentures, our evaluation process ensures securities available only from issuers of a high credit quality and issuing and repayment track record.

Equity Markets Overview & Investment Strategy :

Equity Markets Overview & Investment Strategy Equity indices continued to decline for the third month in a row, with the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 both losing ~5% in June. The fall was majorly seen due to concerns over global slowdown, soaring inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions etc.

Sharp selloff was seen in Metal, Realty and IT sectors whereas sectors like Auto & FMCG outperformed the markets.

FII’s were net sellers in equities to the extent of INR 502 bn. in June vs. INR 400 bn. in May, while Mutual Funds bought equities worth INR 206 bn. in June vs INR 273 bn. in May.

Mkt Cap to GDP is currently higher than long term average of 78.3. While we have a long term positive view on equities, there is an expectation of heightened volatility due to high valuations, rising geopolitical tensions and hawkish measures from global central banks to mitigate the rising inflationary pressures, especially in US.

Source: NSE, MOSPI, Motilal Oswal, ICICI Securities Research

1. The Indian equity markets remained under pressure in June due to major sell-off in global equities, rise in crude oil prices and rate hikes by central banks.

2. Selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to weigh on the benchmark indices. However, positive corporate earnings report by major companies for the quarter ended March-22 prevented further losses. Concerns over inflation were briefly eased to some extent due to fall in global prices of crude oil and agricultural commodities.

3. Going forward, we expect Nifty earnings to grow at CAGR of 22% in FY21-24E and 13.9% in FY22-24E. We are valuing NIFTY at 18,700 i.e. 20x PE on FY24E EPS of Rs. 935.

4. Indian markets are expected volatile over the short term and the future trajectory will remain guided by factors such as: 1) Rising Crude oil prices led by geo political tensions 2) trajectory of global inflation and interest rates 3) domestic macroeconomic factors and central policy actions and 4) RBI Monetary policy.

5. The expectation of domestic recovery in FY 23, allocation should be added to telecom, Infrastructure, and Engineering sector. Also incremental buying in leaders in BFSI due to improvement in credit growth and reduction in NPA’s post Covid.

6. The deployment into equities should be based on the risk profile of the client and the investment horizon:

a. Ideally a staggered approach across 3-6 months or at a 5-10% correction from the current Nifty levels should be adopted for building a quality portfolio.

b. Fresh Allocation to Mid- cap/Small Cap Funds (upto 10% of equity portfolio) should be considered with a medium to long term (4-5 years) time horizon through the SIP route.

c. Mutual fund focused on Contra/Value style of investment and Factor based strategies with factors like momentum/quality should be considered for fresh deployment at the current market levels.

Select Sectors Commentary :

1. The cement sector is likely to witness a glut of new supplies over the next three to four years (i.e. at 7.2% CAGR) based on the recent capex plan announced by major cement companies. Assuming some delays, we still expect supply CAGR of 6-6.5% vs. historical average of 4.4%.

2. This would lead to fresh rounds of consolidation especially in the mid and small sized cement players having high cost structure/bloated b/s. The near-term cost headwinds have already pressurized margins as player are unable to pass on the cost pressure due to moderation in demand in the wake of higher inflation.

1. The growth of Indian IT companies is expected to pick up in Q1, barring weakness in a few companies due to company specific events.

2. The deal execution normally picks up in Q1 as this is the first quarter of full execution after major/minor impact of furlough in Q3 and Q4, respectively.

3. However, margins are expected to take a hit on a QoQ basis on account of annual wage hike cycle for a few while rationalisation of employee costs for others. Margin impact will also be on account of visa related costs as well as uptick in travel related expenses as the economy opens up.

1. Banking sector has outperformed broader markets in last 6 months, this was mainly on account of improving loan book trajectory, improved asset quality and better earning trajectory.

2. We expect normalisation of business activities, as challenges due to pandemic have taken a backseat. The banking sector exited FY22 with credit growth of 9.7% YoY. Latest data for June suggests growth has reached the ~12% mark indicating healthy demand for credit. During Q4FY22, our coverage universe NII was up at a healthy pace of 17% YoY.

1. The FMCG sector has been going through challenging times due to very high commodity inflation in the last one year. The high inflation (~2x last year) in palm oil & crude based derivatives has compelled FMCG companies to take price hike to the tune of 10-15%.

2. The last quarter of FY22 saw revenue growth entirely contributed by prices & volume growth was flat to negative. We believe margin pressure would continue in Q1FY23 as well given commodity inflation was persistent until mid-June and volume growth would also be flattish.

1. Near normal economic activity, healthy retail sales (Q1FY23 averaging at ~92% of pre-Covid levels), robust demand in PV segment amid new launches in the SUV domain, cut in excise duty on fuels in May 2022 and plummeting key raw material prices (mainly metals) towards the fag end of the quarter post their peak in April-May 2022 were the key highlights for Q1FY23E

2. Total industry volumes in Q1FY23 are expected to jump up ~10% QoQ led by the robust performance by the industry leader in the 2-W space with rest of the categories (PV, 3-W, CV) witnessing de-growth QoQ.

1. Structural stories in pharmaceutical space like CRAMS and branded domestic formulations continue to deliver on their earning potential. We also draw comfort from companies with a diversified geographical presence in the branded space and select players in the US with portfolios of complex nature (specialty, biosimilars, injectable and complex generics with limited competition).

2. Domestic formulations business continues to remain main lever for growth during both tough as well as normal times.

3. On the company's front, Divi's Lab, Biocon, Ipca and Sun Pharma are likely to report 10%+ YoY growth.

1. Logistics continued to report a strong run-rate in April and May, in spite of higher crude oil prices, led by the economic revival and higher pent up demand for manufactured goods and services.

2. On the rail front, Dedicated Freight Corridor commercialization has led to improved turnaround times and more double stacking for our coverage container train operators, benefiting both on the topline and EBITDA front.

3. Surface logistics, continue to see continued elevated movement since March (7.8 crore e-way bills compared to 7.5 crore in April and 7.4 crore in May vs. 5.5 crore pre pandemic levels). Source: ICICI Direct Research

Debt Markets Overview & Investment Strategy :

Key Highlights 1. RBI has hiked the repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9%. The standing deposit facility rate stands adjusted at 4.65% and the marginal standing facility rate is at 5.15%.

2. Overall system liquidity remains in large surplus, with the average daily absorption under the LAF moderating to ₹5.5 lakh crore during May 4 - May 31 from ₹7.4 lakh crore during April 8 - May 3, 2022 in consonance with the policy of gradual withdrawal of accommodation

3. The MPC also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth.

4. These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth. The MPC notes that

a. Since the MPC’s meeting in May 2022, the global economy continues to grapple with multi-decadal high inflation and slowing growth, persisting geopolitical tensions and sanctions, elevated prices of crude oil and other commodities and lingering COVID-19 related supply chain bottlenecks.

b. Global financial markets have been roiled by turbulence amidst growing stagflation concerns, leading to a tightening of global financial conditions and risks to the growth outlook and financial stability.

c. The recovery in domestic economic activity is gathering strength. Rural consumption should benefit from the likely normal south-west monsoon and the expected improvement in agricultural prospects. A rebound in contact-intensive services is likely to bolster urban consumption, going forward. The investment activity is expected to be supported by improving capacity utilization, the government’s capex push, and strengthening bank credit.

d. Domestic interest rates have hardened due to concerns of higher inflation from the rebound in economy activities coupled with supply chain issues and sharp rise in freight costs. The shorter end of the curve is expected to re-align with normalization in the interest rates.

e. RBI has hiked reverse repo rate by 50 bps in June policy meeting as the inflation number in May at 7.04%, was higher than RBI expectations due to increase in prices of both agricultural and industrial products.

f. The focus of RBI will be focused on taking hawkish measures like withdrawal of liquidity from the system and hike in rates in the next few MPC meetings to bring down inflation below 6% by the end of the current financial year.

g. The Government also has taken measures like banning exports of wheat for controlling the domestic price, which has increased sharply in the last few months, tracking global prices.

h. Global central banks also have increased rates for controlling inflation which had been multi decadal high due to supply disruptions caused by the ongoing Russia – Ukraine conflict.

6. In a rising interest rate environment with steep yield curve, the duration risk needs to be calibrated at regular intervals. Hence Money Market and Arbitrage funds which offer tax efficient returns are ideal for short term parking upto 6-12 months.

7. The yields in 3-5 years AAA corporate bond/SDL segment have hardened sharply in the past few months and are trading around 7.25-7.5%. Hence, exposure to corporate bond Fund with roll down strategy or target maturity Fund in 3-5 year willl offer decent yields with an investment horizon of 3 years and above.

8. Also, Blended/Medium Term fund with a balanced exposure to decent quality AA and AAA assets is also likely to generate good carry returns with a time horizon of 3 years and above.

Source: RBI

Gold, Crude Oil and Currency Views :

1. Historically, Gold has had a negative correlation with equities and debt, and hence adding allocation to Gold in the portfolio can result in optimum portfolio diversification.

2. Gold prices decreased by 2.6% MoM in June’22. Strengthening of dollar is a negative for gold performance.

3. We continue to remain bullish on Gold from medium to long term perspective. Any dips in prices should be used to increase allocation. We continue to recommend (5% in core allocation) through Sovereign Gold bonds and (5% tactical allocation) through ETFs.

Source: World Gold Council, Bloomberg | Returns till 1 year are absolute; > 1 year are CAGR

1. Rupee depreciated by 1.8% while the dollar index went up by 3.0% in last one month

2. Rupee slipped in June owing to increase in crude prices and FII withdrawals from Indian markets.

3. We expect currency to remain range bound around current levels due to RBI intervention to prevent sharp depreciation.

4. However crude prices trading above 100 USD is a concern from CAD and fiscal deficit perspective. Also, further withdrawal of funds by FPI’s from Indian markets will put further pressure on the currency.

Source: Bloomberg, RBI | Returns till 1 year are absolute; > 1 year are CAGR

1. Crude Oil prices fell by 7.3% in last one month and has rallied by 40% since January’22.

2. The movement in Oil prices will heavily depend on the degree of sanctions imposed on Russian oil exports and increase in supply by OPEC countries.

3. However, despite the loss of supply from Russia, steadily rising output from other producing countries, coupled with slower demand growth, especially in China, is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit in the near term

4. We expect Crude to trade around the elevated levels of 100-110 over the next few months.

Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Bloomberg | Returns till 1 year are absolute; > 1 year are CAGR

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ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

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During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

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During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

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During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

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• ICICI PRUDENTIAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY LTD.
• SECTOR : BANKING AND FINANCE
• INDUSTRY : LIFE INSURANCE

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd.

NSE: ICICIPRULI | BSE: 540133

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ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. share price target

Icici prudential life insurance company ltd. has an average target of 601.57. the consensus estimate represents an upside of 2.17% from the last price of 588.80. view 19 reports from 7 analysts offering long-term price targets for icici prudential life insurance company ltd...

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