chemical hunger thesis

Advertisement

Environmental impacts of the nutrition transition and potential hunger eradication in emerging countries

• Original Article
• Published: 04 January 2021
• Volume 16 , pages 565–579, ( 2021 )

Cite this article

• Max Bamberger 1 ,
• Paul Behrens 1 , 2 &
• Laura Scherer   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-0194-9942 1  

1184 Accesses

7 Citations

12 Altmetric

Explore all metrics

The shift from traditional diets to a diet characterised by higher consumption of sugars, fats, processed foods and animal-source foods is often termed the nutrition transition. Although research has focused on the health outcomes of this transition, there is an increasing interest in environmental impacts. Here we investigated the potential changes in impacts driven by the nutrition transition in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey between 2011 and 2030. We combined a multi-regional input–output database (EXIOBASE) with food demand projections (OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018). In a business-as-usual scenario, we assessed the impacts of the projected dietary changes on climate change, marine and freshwater eutrophication, land stress and water scarcity. Then, we built a second, zero-hunger scenario to investigate the impacts due to the eradication of hunger by 2030, a target of Sustainable Development Goal 2. The results show that total growth in environmental impacts through food consumption is the highest for Indonesia (44–54%), India (35–43%) and Mexico (31–48%). The total impacts stay highest in Brazil (land stress), China (eutrophication) and India (climate change and water scarcity), mainly driven by meat, fish and dairy consumption, respectively. The zero-hunger scenario results in similar health improvements across all countries: 0.08 to 0.12 prevented disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per undernourished person. It would achieve the highest health improvements in India and China with around 375,000 human life equivalents of prevented DALYs combined. There are only slight trade-offs between hunger eradication and environmental goals.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save.

• Get 10 units per month
• Download Article/Chapter or eBook
• 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
• Cancel anytime

Price includes VAT (Russian Federation)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Rent this article via DeepDyve

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Traditional japanese diet score and the sustainable development goals by a global comparative ecological study

Climate-friendly and nutrition-sensitive interventions can close the global dietary nutrient gap while reducing GHG emissions

The health, environmental, and economic dimensions of future dietary transitions in Argentina

Aiking H (2011) Future protein supply. Trends Food Sci Technol 22:112–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tifs.2010.04.005

Article   CAS   Google Scholar  

Alae-Carew C, Bird FA, Choudhury S et al (2019) Future diets in India: a systematic review of food consumption projection studies. Glob Food Sec 23:182–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GFS.2019.05.006

Article   Google Scholar  

Aleksandrowicz L, Green R, Joy EJM et al (2019) Environmental impacts of dietary shifts in India: a modelling study using nationally-representative data. Environ Int 126:207–215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.004

Asia and Pacific Commission on Agricultural Statistics (2014) Revision of the methodology for the estimation of the Prevalence of Undernourishment. Vientiane

Begum I, Rahman S, Alam MJ, et al (2011) Bangladesh poultry sector: growth, competitiveness and future potential. In: Livestock: Rearing, Farming Practices and Diseases. pp 81–104

Behrens P, Jong JCK, Bosker T et al (2017) Evaluating the environmental impacts of dietary recommendations. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 114:13412–13417. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711889114

Blesh J, Hoey L, Jones AD et al (2019) Development pathways toward “zero hunger.” World Dev 118:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WORLDDEV.2019.02.004

Bouwman AF, Beusen AHW, Billen G (2009) Human alteration of the global nitrogen and phosphorus soil balances for the period 1970–2050. Glob Biogeochem Cycles. https://doi.org/10.1029/[email protected]/(ISSN)1525-2027.NUTRIENT1

Bray GA (2013) Energy and fructose from beverages sweetened with sugar or high-fructose corn syrup pose a health risk for some people. Adv Nutr 4:220–225. https://doi.org/10.3945/an.112.002816

Capper JL, Cady RA, Bauman DE (2009) The environmental impact of dairy production: 1944 compared with 2007. J Anim Sci 87:2160–2167. https://doi.org/10.2527/jas.2009-1781

Cohen MJ (2019) Let them eat promises: global policy incoherence, unmet pledges, and misplaced priorities undercut progress on SDG 2. Food Ethics 4:175–187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41055-019-00048-2

Dhanda JS, Taylor DG, Murray PJ et al (2003) Goat meat production: present status and future possibilities. Asian-Aust J Anim Sci 16:1842–1852

FAO (2008) FAO methodology for the measurement of food deprivation—updating the minimum dietary energy requirements. FAO, Rome

Google Scholar  

FAO (2018) FAOSTAT. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home . Accessed 7 Dec 2018

FAO, WHO, UNU (2001) Human energy requirements—report of a Joint FAO/WHO/UNU Expert Consultation. FAO, Rome

Ferry M (2020) What’s India’s beef with meat? Hindu orthopraxis and food transition in India since the 1980s. Sociol Forum 35:511–534

Gain (2014) The 3 ways to fix the global food system. https://www.gainhealth.org/knowledge-centre/3-ways-fix-global-food-system/

Gallego B, Lenzen M (2006) A consistent input–output formulation of shared producer and consumer responsibility. Econ Syst Res 17:365–391. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535310500283492

Gandhi VP, Zhou Z (2014) Food demand and the food security challenge with rapid economic growth in the emerging economies of India and China. Food Res Int 63:108–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.FOODRES.2014.03.015

Gill M, Feliciano D, Macdiarmid J, Smith P (2015) The environmental impact of nutrition transition in three case study countries. Food Secur 7:493–504. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-015-0453-x

Gödecke T, Stein AJ, Qaim M (2018) The global burden of chronic and hidden hunger: trends and determinants. Glob Food Sec 17:21–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GFS.2018.03.004

Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR et al (2010) Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science (80-) 327:812–818. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185383

Godfray HCJ, Aveyard P, Garnett T et al (2018) Meat consumption, health, and the environment. Science (80-). https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.AAM5324

Gustavsson J, Cederberg C, Sonesson U (2011) Global food losses and food waste: extent, causes and prevention. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Swedish Institute for Food and Biotechnology (SIK)

Guyomard H, Manceron S, Peyraud J-L (2013) Trade in feed grains, animals, and animal products: current trends, future prospects, and main issues. Anim Front 3:14–18. https://doi.org/10.2527/af.2013-0003

Harper LA, Denmead OT, Freney JR, Byers FM (1999) Direct measurements of methane emissions from grazing and feedlot cattle. J Anim Sci 77:1392. https://doi.org/10.2527/1999.7761392x

Harris F, Moss C, Joy EJM et al (2020) The water footprint of diets: a global systematic review and meta-analysis. Adv Nutr 11:375–386. https://doi.org/10.1093/advances/nmz091

Hocquette J-F (2016) Is in vitro meat the solution for the future? Meat Sci 120:167–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.MEATSCI.2016.04.036

INDDEX Project (2018) Data4Diets: building blocks for diet-related food security analysis. https://inddex.nutrition.tufts.edu/data4diets

Jarvis SC, Wilkins RJ, Pain BF (1996) Opportunities for reducing the environmental impact of dairy farming managements: a systems approach. Grass Forage Sci 51:21–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2494.1996.tb02034.x

Jolliet O, Antón A, Boulay A-M et al (2018) Global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment indicators: impacts of climate change, fine particulate matter formation, water consumption and land use. Int J Life Cycle Assess 23:2189–2207. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-018-1443-y

Kassebaum NJ, Arora M, Barber RM et al (2016) Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 388:1603–1658. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31460-X

Kieschnick J (2005) Buddhist vegetarianism in China. Of tripod and palate. Palgrave Macmillan US, New York, pp 186–212

Chapter   Google Scholar  

Lenzen M, Murray J, Sack F, Wiedmann T (2007) Shared producer and consumer responsibility—theory and practice. Ecol Econ 61:27–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOLECON.2006.05.018

Machovina B, Feeley KJ, Ripple WJ (2015) Biodiversity conservation: the key is reducing meat consumption. Sci Total Environ 536:419–431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.022

Mäenpää I, Siikavirta H (2007) Greenhouse gases embodied in the international trade and final consumption of Finland: an input–output analysis. Energy Policy 35:128–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENPOL.2005.10.006

Marlow HJ, Hayes WK, Soret S et al (2009) Diet and the environment: does what you eat matter? Am J Clin Nutr 89:1699S-1703S. https://doi.org/10.3945/ajcn.2009.26736Z

McMichael C (2013) Climate change and migration: food insecurity as a driver and outcome of climate change-related migration. In: Environmental deterioration and human health. pp 291–313

Merciai S, Schmidt J (2018) Methodology for the construction of global multi-regional hybrid supply and use tables for the EXIOBASE v3 database. J Ind Ecol 22:516–531. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12713

Milford AB, Le Mouël C, Bodirsky BL, Rolinski S (2019) Drivers of meat consumption. Appetite 141:104313. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APPET.2019.06.005

Moltedo A, Troubat N, Lokshin M, Sajaia Z (2014) Analyzing food security using household survey data

Munksgaard J, Pedersen KA (2001) CO 2 accounts for open economies: producer or consumer responsibility? Energy Policy 29:327–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(00)00120-8

Myhre G, Shindell D, Bréon F-M, et al (2013) Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing

Naiken L (2003) Keynote paper: FAO methodology for estimating the prevalence of undernourishment. Rome

Naiken L (2014) Methodological isses in the estimation of the prevalence of undernourishment based on dietary energy consumption data: a review and clarification. Rome

O’Riordan T, Stoll-Kleemann S (2015) The challenges of changing dietary behavior toward more sustainable consumption. Environ Sci Policy Sustain Dev 57:4–13

OECD (2018) OECD.Stat. https://stats.oecd.org/

OECD, FAO (2015) Aglink-cosimo model documentation a partial equilibrium model of world agricultural markets

OECD, FAO (2018) OECD–FAO agricultural outlook 2018–2027

Parker K, Salas M, Nwosu VC (2010) High fructose corn syrup: production, uses and public health concerns. Biotechnol Mol Biol Rev 5:71–78

CAS   Google Scholar  

Pfister S, Bayer P (2014) Monthly water stress: spatially and temporally explicit consumptive water footprint of global crop production. J Clean Prod 73:52–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2013.11.031

Pfister S, Bayer P, Koehler A et al (2011) Environmental impacts of water use in global crop production: hotspots and trade-offs with land use. Environ Sci Technol 45:5761–5768. https://doi.org/10.1021/es1041755

Pfister S, Boulay A-M, Berger M et al (2017) Understanding the LCA and ISO water footprint: a response to hoekstra (2016) “a critique on the water-scarcity weighted water footprint in LCA.” Ecol Indic 72:352–359

Popkin BM (1993) Nutritional patterns and transitions. Popul Dev Rev 19:138–157

Ramankutty N, Mehrabi Z, Waha K et al (2018) Trends in global agricultural land use: implications for environmental health and food security. Annu Rev Plant Biol. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-arplant-042817

Roser M, Ritchie H (2017) Meat production & consumption—our world in data. In: Our world data

Roser M, Ritchie H (2018a) Hunger and undernourishment—our world in data. In: Our world data. https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment . Accessed 26 Jan 2020

Roser M, Ritchie H (2018b) Food per person—our world in data. In: Our world data. https://ourworldindata.org/food-per-person . Accessed 6 Dec 2018

Ruby MB, Alvarenga MS, Rozin P et al (2016) Attitudes toward beef and vegetarians in Argentina, Brazil, France, and the USA. Appetite 96:546–554. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APPET.2015.10.018

Scherer L, Pfister S (2016) Dealing with uncertainty in water scarcity footprints. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054008

Scherer L, Verburg PH (2017) Mapping and linking supply- and demand-side measures in climate-smart agriculture. A review. Agron Sustain Dev 37:2

Scherer L, Behrens P, de Koning A et al (2018) Trade-offs between social and environmental sustainable development goals. Environ Sci Policy 90:65–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVSCI.2018.10.002

Scherer L, Behrens P, Tukker A (2019) Opportunity for a dietary win-win-win in nutrition, environment, and animal welfare. One Earth, Culver

Book   Google Scholar  

Shafiee-Jood M, Cai X (2016) Reducing food loss and waste to enhance food security and environmental sustainability. Environ Sci Technol 50:8432–8443

Shine KP, Fuglestvedt JS, Hailemariam K, Stuber N (2005) Alternatives to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases. Clim Change 68:281–302. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-1146-9

Simoes A, Hidalgo C (2011) The economic complexity observatory: an analytical tool for understanding the dynamics of economic development. In: Work. Twenty-Fifth AAAI Conf. Artif. Intell. https://oec.world/en/

Smil V (2002) Worldwide transformation of diets, burdens of meat production and opportunities for novel food proteins. Enzyme Microb Technol 30:305–311

Smith J, Sones K, Grace D et al (2013) Beyond milk, meat, and eggs: role of livestock in food and nutrition security. Anim Front 3:6–13. https://doi.org/10.2527/af.2013-0002

Stadler K, Wood R, Bulavskaya T et al (2018) EXIOBASE 3: developing a time series of detailed environmentally extended multi-regional input–output tables. J Ind Ecol 22:502–515. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12715

Steiner G, Geissler B, Schernhammer ES (2019) Malnutrition, hunger and obesity as symptoms of non-sustainable food systems and malnutrition. Appl Sci 9:1062

Steyn NP, Mchiza ZJ (2014) Obesity and the nutrition transition in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1311:88–101. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.12433

Subak S (1999) Global environmental costs of beef production. Ecol Econ 30:79–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(98)00100-1

Sun Z, Scherer L, Tukker A, Behrens P (2019) Linking global crop and livestock consumption to local production hotspots. Glob Food Sec. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.09.008

The World Bank (2019) Life expectancy at birth, total (years) | Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sp.dyn.le00.in

UN (2017) World population prospects—the 2017 revision. https://population.un.org/wpp/ . Accessed 6 Dec 2018

UN (2018) Sustainable development goals—Goal 2: Zero Hunger. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/

USDA (2019) USDA food composition databases. https://ndb.nal.usda.gov/ndb/ . Accessed 17 May 2019

Usubiaga A, Butnar I, Schepelmann P (2017) Wasting food, wasting resources. J Ind Ecol. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12695

Usubiaga-Liaño A, Behrens P, Daioglou V (2020) Energy use in the global food system. J Ind Ecol jiec. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12982

Willett W, Rockström J, Loken B et al (2019) Food in the anthropocene: the EAT-lancet commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems executive summary. Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4

Woodard DL, Davis SJ, Randerson JT (2019) Economic carbon cycle feedbacks may offset additional warming from natural feedbacks. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 116:759–764. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805187115

Xue X, Landis AE (2010) Eutrophication potential of food consumption patterns. Environ Sci Technol 44:6450–6456. https://doi.org/10.1021/es9034478

Yue Q, Xu X, Hillier J et al (2017) Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture: from farm production to food consumption. J Clean Prod 149:1011–1019. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2017.02.172

Download references

Author information

Authors and affiliations.

Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands

Max Bamberger, Paul Behrens & Laura Scherer

Leiden University College The Hague, The Hague, The Netherlands

Paul Behrens

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Laura Scherer .

Additional information

Publisher's note.

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Handled by Laura Pereira, Stellenbosch University Centre for complex systems in transition, South Africa.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 4936 KB)

Rights and permissions.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Bamberger, M., Behrens, P. & Scherer, L. Environmental impacts of the nutrition transition and potential hunger eradication in emerging countries. Sustain Sci 16 , 565–579 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-020-00887-7

Download citation

Received : 10 November 2019

Accepted : 24 November 2020

Published : 04 January 2021

Issue Date : March 2021

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-020-00887-7

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

• Consumption-based accounting
• Multi-regional input–output analysis
• Food demand
• Dietary change
• Zero hunger
• Environmental sustainability
• Find a journal
• Publish with us
• Track your research

Get the Reddit app

Slate Star Codex was the former name for a blog by Scott Alexander about human cognition, politics, and medicine. In 2021, the name was changed to Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/

A Chemical Hunger Discussion Thread

Now that u/slimemoldtimemold has finished A Chemical Hunger, I wanted to get everyone's takes on it.

Part I - Mysteries

Part II - Current Theories of Obesity are Inadequate

Part III - Environmental Contaminants

Interlude A - CICO Killer, Qu'est-ce Que C'est?

Part IV - Criteria

Part V - Livestock Antibiotics

Interlude B - The Nutrient Sludge Diet

Part VI - PFAS

Part VII - Lithium

Personally, I thought it was super interesting, and I had never heard a lot of this before despite studying biology in undergrad and having an interest in health/nutrition. My biggest criticism is the assertion that obesity rates started spiking around 1980. If you look at a graph of rates, sure, they did, but isn't that what one would expect to see if you're measuring the percent of a normal distribution above a certain threshold, and the mean of that distribution is slowly but consistently inching upward? I'm just not convinced that there was a sudden change in the underlying trend. That said, I still found the theory credible enough that I've started using the Brita filter instead of the tap water.

By continuing, you agree to our User Agreement and acknowledge that you understand the Privacy Policy .

Enter the 6-digit code from your authenticator app

You’ve set up two-factor authentication for this account.

Enter a 6-digit backup code

Create your username and password.

Reddit is anonymous, so your username is what you’ll go by here. Choose wisely—because once you get a name, you can’t change it.

Reset your password

Enter your email address or username and we’ll send you a link to reset your password

Check your inbox

An email with a link to reset your password was sent to the email address associated with your account

Choose a Reddit account to continue

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

• View all journals
• Explore content
• About the journal
• Publish with us
• Sign up for alerts
• Published: 11 September 2019

Tackling food consumption inequality to fight hunger without pressuring the environment

• Tomoko Hasegawa   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2456-5789 1 , 2 , 3 ,
• Petr Havlík 2 ,
• Stefan Frank   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547 2 ,
• Amanda Palazzo   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8167-9403 2 &
• Hugo Valin   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-0618-773X 2  

Nature Sustainability volume  2 ,  pages 826–833 ( 2019 ) Cite this article

4020 Accesses

51 Citations

103 Altmetric

Metrics details

• Environmental impact
• Environmental sciences
• Socioeconomic scenarios
• Sustainability

A Publisher Correction to this article was published on 11 November 2019

This article has been updated

Ending hunger is a Sustainable Development Goal of the UN. However, feeding a growing world population by increasing food production without implementing more sustainable consumption will threaten the environment. We explore alternative hunger eradication scenarios that do not compromise environmental protection. We find that an economy-growth-oriented scenario, which ignores inequitable food distribution and is aimed at ending hunger by increasing overall food availability, would require about 20% more food production, 48 Mha of additional agricultural land and would increase greenhouse gas emissions by 550 Mt of CO 2 equivalents yr −1 in 2030, compared with the business-as-usual scenario. If hunger eradication efforts were focused solely on the under-nourished, food demand would increase by only 3%, and the associated environmental trade-offs would be largely reduced. Moreover, a combined scenario that targets the under-nourished while also reducing over-consumption, food waste, agricultural intensification and other environmental impacts would reduce food demand by 9% compared with the business-as-usual scenario and would lead to the multiple benefits of reducing hunger and contributing to environmental sustainability.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals

Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription

24,99 € / 30 days

cancel any time

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 12 digital issues and online access to articles

111,21 € per year

only 9,27 € per issue

Buy this article

• Purchase on SpringerLink
• Instant access to full article PDF

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Similar content being viewed by others

Roadmap for achieving net-zero emissions in global food systems by 2050

The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection

The triple benefits of slimming and greening the Chinese food system

Data availability.

The data repository, including scenario data, is stored on Harvard Dataverse ( https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/RQZELX ).

Code availability

The authors declare that the program code used to generate results in this study is available from the corresponding author on request.

Change history

11 november 2019.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2017: Builiding Resilience for Peace and Food Security (FAO, UNICEF, WFP, WHO, 2017).

IAASTD: International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development Global Report (Island, 2009).

Alexandratos, N. & Bruinsma, J. World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision (FAO, 2012).

FAOSTAT (FAO, 2017); http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home

Maxwell, S. L., Fuller, R. A., Brooks, T. M. & Watson, J. E. M. Biodiversity: The ravages of guns, nets and bulldozers. Nature 536 , 143–145 (2016).

Article   CAS   Google Scholar  

Shiklomanov, I. A. Appraisal and assessment of world water resources. Water Int. 25 , 11–32 (2000).

Article   Google Scholar  

Smith, P. M. B. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 811–922 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

Rockstrom, J. et al. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461 , 472–475 (2009).

Obersteiner, M. et al. Assessing the land resource–food price nexus of the Sustainable Development Goals. Sci. Adv. 2 , e1501499 (2016).

Foley, J. A. et al. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478 , 337–342 (2011).

Rosegrant, M. W. S. et al. Quantitative Foresight Modeling to Inform the CGIAR Research Portfolio (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2017).

Erb, K.-H. et al. Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation. Nat. Commun. 7 , 11382 (2016).

Nelson, G. C. et al. Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2010).

Muller, A. et al. Strategies for feeding the world more sustainably with organic agriculture. Nat. Commun. 8 , 1290 (2017).

Springmann, M. et al. Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits. Nature 562 , 519–525 (2018).

Cafiero, C. Advances in Hunger Measurement: Traditional FAO Methods and Recent Innovations (FAO, 2014).

The State of Food Insecurity in the World Meeting the 2015 International Hunger Targets: Taking Stock of Uneven Progress (FAO, 2015).

The CELAC Plan for Food and Nutrition Security and the Eradication of Hunger 2025: Executive Summary (FAO, ECLAC, ALADI, 2015).

CELAC Food Security, Nutrition and Hunger Eradication 2025: Matters for Discussion and Regional Cooperation (FAO, 2016).

Drèze, J. & Sen, A. Hunger and Public Action (Oxford Univ. Press, 1989).

Gobin, V. J., Santos, P. & Toth, R. No longer trapped? Promoting entrepreneurship through cash transfers to ultra-poor women in northern Kenya. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 99 , 1362–1383 (2017).

Burney, J. A., Davis, S. J. & Lobell, D. B. Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107 , 12052–12057 (2010).

Valin, H. et al. Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security? Environ. Res. Lett. 8 , 035019 (2013).

Hasegawa, T. et al. Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger. Environ. Sci. Technol. 49 , 7245–7253 (2015).

Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Takahashi, K. & Masui, T. Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environ. Res. Lett. 10 , 014010 (2015).

Havlík, P. et al. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111 , 3709–3714 (2014).

Lin, B.-H., Smith, T. A., Lee, J.-Y. & Hall, K. D. Measuring weight outcomes for obesity intervention strategies: the case of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax. Econ. Hum. Biol. 9 , 329–341 (2011).

Springmann, M., Godfray, H. C. J., Rayner, M. & Scarborough, P. Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113 , 4146–4151 (2016).

Duffey, K. J. et al. Food price and diet and health outcomes: 20 years of the CARDIA study. Arch. Intern. Med. 170 , 420–426 (2010).

Colchero, M. A., Popkin, B. M., Rivera, J. A. & Ng, S. W. Beverage purchases from stores in Mexico under the excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages:observational study. BMJ 352 , h6704 (2016).

Global Food Losses and Food Waste—Extent, Causes and Prevention (FAO, 2011).

Legge sugli sprechi alimentari (Legge 19 agosto 2016 n.166): Disposizioni concernenti la donazione e la distribuzione di prodotti alimentari e farmaceutici a fini di solidarieta’ sociale e per la limitazione degli sprechi (16G00179) GU Serie Generale n.202 del 30-08-2016 (Gazzetta Ufficiale della Republicca Italiana, 2016); http://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2016/08/30/16G00179/sg

Herrero, M. et al. Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110 , 20888–20893 (2013).

Fricko, O. et al. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: a middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. Glob. Environ. Change 42 , 251–267 (2017).

Frank, S. et al. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security? Environ. Res. Lett. 12 , 105004 (2017).

Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly on Work of the Statistical Commission Pertaining to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development A/RES/71/313 (UN, 2017).

AQUASTAT Main Database (FAO, 2016).

Food Security Indicators (FAO, 2016); http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-fs/ess-fadata/en/#.V7KYqpgqq9I

Rand, W. M., Pellett, P. L. & Young, V. R. Meta-analysis of nitrogen balance studies for estimating protein requirements in healthy adults. Am. J. Clin. Nutr. 77 , 109–127 (2003).

Protein and Amino Acid Requirements in Human Nutrition: Report of a Joint FAO/WHO/UNU Expert Consultation (WHO, FAO, UNU, 2007).

Walpole, S. C. et al. The weight of nations: an estimation of adult human biomass. BMC Public Health 12 , 439 (2012).

Energy and Protein Requirements (FAO, WHO, 1973).

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) Database Version 0.9.3 (IIASA, accessed 1 August 2012); https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb

Download references

Acknowledgements

T.H. is supported by JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships and Global Environmental Research Fund 2–1702 of the Ministry of Environment of Japan. P.H., S.F. and H.V. are supported by the H2020 SUSFANS project—Metrics, Models and Foresight for European Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security under grant agreement no. 633692. P.H., A.P., S.F. and H.V. are supported by the UNIDO IS-WEL project—Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy and Land under grant no. 140312. T.H. is grateful to IIASA and NIES for the opportunity to visit IIASA and for this collaborative work with IIASA colleagues.

Author information

Authors and affiliations.

College of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu, Japan

Tomoko Hasegawa

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlík, Stefan Frank, Amanda Palazzo & Hugo Valin

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Contributions

T.H. and P.H. designed the research and carried out the analysis of the modelling results. T.H. created figures and led the writing of the paper. All authors contributed to the discussion and interpretation of the results and to writing the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tomoko Hasegawa .

Ethics declarations

Competing interests.

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Figs. 1–7, Table 1, methods and references.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article.

Hasegawa, T., Havlík, P., Frank, S. et al. Tackling food consumption inequality to fight hunger without pressuring the environment. Nat Sustain 2 , 826–833 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0371-6

Download citation

Received : 21 November 2018

Accepted : 31 July 2019

Published : 11 September 2019

Issue Date : September 2019

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0371-6

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

This article is cited by

Health burden from food systems is highly unequal across income groups.

• Lianming Zheng
• Wulahati Adalibieke
• Huizhong Shen

Nature Food (2024)

Reducing climate change impacts from the global food system through diet shifts

• Klaus Hubacek

Nature Climate Change (2024)

Justice considerations in climate research

• Caroline Zimm
• Kian Mintz-Woo
• Thomas Schinko

Global food expenditure patterns diverge between low-income and high-income countries

• Wanqi Liang
• Pathmanathan Sivashankar

Systematic scenario modeling for priority assessment of sustainable development goals in China under interaction and uncertainty

• Renlong Wang
• Shutian Cui
• Mingang Gao

Environment, Development and Sustainability (2024)

Quick links

• Explore articles by subject
• Guide to authors
• Editorial policies

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

An official website of the United States government

The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

The site is secure. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

• Publications
• Account settings

Preview improvements coming to the PMC website in October 2024. Learn More or Try it out now .

• Advanced Search
• Journal List

Hunger, Obesity, Public Policies, and Food-Based Dietary Guidelines: A Reflection Considering the Socio-Environmental World Context

Alessandra amorim.

1 Department of Food Engineering, Faculty of Animal Science and Food Engineering, University of São Paulo, Pirassununga, Brazil

Ana de Holanda Barbosa

2 Institute for Applied Economic Research, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Paulo José do Amaral Sobral

3 Food Research Center, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Nowadays, the world has been characterized by hunger, obesity, and food loss and waste (FLW). With the COVID-19 pandemic, the food issue became more intense, serious, and evident. Hunger demands urgent actions. Obesity levels have been raised and are removing health and quality of life from the population. Production planting practices and the food supply chain are not necessarily ecologically friendly. Sustainability issues greatly intensify social problems. As well as food loss (FL), food waste (FW), and sustainability concerns, obesity, and malnutrition are enhanced due to the lack of knowledge by the population. Processed food (PF), packaging, and additives, despite still needing improvement, are essential to food security control. Nowadays, hunger is not due to insufficient agricultural practices but rather to inequality and absence of adequate public policies. In the context of a certain abundance of food production and processing, the hunger scenario in contrast to FLW is an ethical, social, moral, and sustainable issue. In this context, a Food-Based Dietary Guideline (FBDG) can be an important public policy tool from the health, nutrition, environmental, and educational points of view. Despite the effort, the literature shows that FBDGs can be better used to fulfill healthiness and sustainability purposes. In this scenario, the elaboration/revision of the FBDG, adopting a clearer, simpler, and a better-suited communication strategy is essential. In this way, this article discusses the importance of the FBDG as a public policy tool, not only regarding health issues but also communication strategies, production sustainability, and humanitarian ones, which are crucial to FBDG's efficiency.

Introduction

Past centuries were marked by huge population losses resulting from hunger ( 1 , 2 ). Nowadays, hunger still exists. According to “The State of Security and Nutrition in the World” report, published by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO ( 3 ), around 650 million people suffered from hunger in 2019, representing an increase of 43 million people compared to 2014 and, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was estimated that around 118 million more people were faced hunger in 2020 than in 2019. By now, this estimation has not been confirmed yet or recalculated. Globally, 149 million children under the age of 5 years were stunted and 45 million were wasted in 2020 ( 4 ). Despite the global agreement to eradicate hunger by 2030, the world is off the path to achieve it ( 3 ).

At the same time, a greater number of people died as a result of noncommunicable diseases (obesity, diabetes type 2, cancer, etc.) ( 5 – 8 ) and malnutrition (undernutrition—dietary energy deficiency, micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity—dietary energy surplus) ( 7 , 9 , 10 ). Noncommunicable diseases and malnutrition are considered as the consequences of an unhealthy and unbalanced diet that can include high consumption of processed food (PF).

In 2016, 39% of adults worldwide—which represents 1.9 billion people—were overweight, being that 13% people were obese ( 11 ). According to WHO ( 11 ), in 2020, 39 million children of 5 years old were overweight or obese. Between the ages 5 and 19, the number was around 340 million in 2016. By 2020, it was predicted that a half of the world's population would be overweight ( 2 ). Since 1975, worldwide obesity has nearly tripled ( 11 ). Until now, there is no updated obesity statistic from the WHO, considering the COVID-19 pandemic. The readers interested in studying on malnutrition and other diseases issues are invited to consult HLPE report 12 ( 9 ), Willett et al. ( 7 ), and Swinburn et al. ( 10 ).

According to WHO ( 11 ), obesity is preventable. Obesity is the excessive fat accumulation on the body, measured by body mass index (BMI), which relates the weight by the square of its height in meters. Values >25 kg/m 2 indicate overweight and, over 30 kg/m 2 , obesity ( 11 ). The WHO ( 11 ) explains obesity as a result of an energy imbalance between consumed and expended calories. This imbalance occurs mainly because of the inadequate food consumption—quality, quantity, and frequency—and the sedentary lifestyle—the absence of efficient physical activity ( 11 – 13 ). To change this reality, investments in public policies related to health, agriculture, urban planning, transport, food processing, marketing, and education are essential ( 11 , 14 , 15 ).

The balance between a healthy diet and efficient physical activity is the key point to reduce obesity ( 11 ). Nonetheless, Carretero et al. ( 16 ) explained that diet is not a product. Diet is the amount of nutrients provided to the body. Each person has individual calories needs according to lifestyle ( 11 , 16 ). Salt, sugar, and fat intakes have to be restrained; however, their consumption also contributes to improving health. The transport and absorption of soluble vitamins are dependent on the fat in the intestine ( 17 ). In addition, adequate oil intake can affect the reproductive feminine system ( 18 ).

To avoid obesity, the WHO advise people ( 11 ) to limit energy intake from total fats and sugars; increase the consumption of fruit and vegetables, and legumes, whole grains, and nuts; and engage in regular physical activity (60 min a day for children and 150 min spread through the week for adults). Moreover, it advises the food industry for reducing the fat, sugar, and salt content of PFs, ensuring that healthy and nutritious choices are available and affordable to all consumers, restricting marketing of foods rich in sugars, salt, and fats, especially those foods aimed at children and teenagers, and ensuring the availability of healthy food choices and supporting regular physical activity practices in the workplace.

In the modern and globalized world, inefficient and imbalanced diets result in millions of deaths ( 5 – 7 , 11 , 14 ). Although hunger and obesity must be combated with equal intensity, according to Contreras and Verthein ( 1 ), hunger is immoral and more aggressive to health than obesity. According to Sen ( 19 ), the food security problem is not only related to food supply chain or food availability but also rather to an entitlement, as a consequence of lack of employment and the absence of good conditions of salary, which are more intense in underdeveloped countries.

The dramatic worsening of world hunger represents a violation of human rights ( 20 ). Urgent action and transformation in food systems are needed to ensure food and nutrition security. Public policies aimed to eliminate hunger and poverty are important as food insecurity is the result of political and economic choices. According to FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO ( 3 ), there are some important pathways toward food system transformation to address the major drivers of food insecurity, malnutrition, and unaffordability of health diets. These pathways are related to: humanitarian and peacebuilding policies in conflict-affected areas; scaling up climate resilience across food system resilience; strengthening the resilience of most vulnerable to economic adversity; intervening along the food supply chains to lower the cost of nutritious foods; tackling poverty and structural inequalities; and strengthening food environments and changing consumer behavior to promote dietary patterns with positive impacts on human health and the environment. Nevertheless, gender inequalities, for instance, must be also considered as the cause and outcome of unsustainable food systems and unequal food access, consumption, and production ( 21 ).

Since the Industrial and Green Revolutions, there has been an abundance of food production; however, it was not enough to guarantee food security despite the food industrialization. During the 20th century, according to Aguilera ( 22 ), the food industry has shown consistent improvement as a consequence of technological advancements that allowed moving from batch to continuous processing, resulting in the production of thousands of units per hour of microbiologically safe and nutritious food. In addition to food production rising, the food industry development also reduced waste and energy consumption.

The food system inequality and contradiction are a reflection of the lack of public policies and rulers' omission ( 1 , 5 , 6 ). Food is at the core of human health. Having no knowledge or having misinformation about food results in public policy issues ( 23 ). The State has a duty to promote society's knowledge, especially when it implies to safety and health ( 6 , 24 ). Farmers, Food Engineering, Technologists and Scientists, Nutritionists, and Communication professionals can also contribute to humanitarian issues ( 25 ). The modern world challenge is, amidst waves of irrelevant information, to promote knowledge and equity to a more demanding and in-need population ( 2 ). Thus, clarity is power ( 2 ).

Therefore, this review aims to critically discuss the importance of Food-Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDGs) as a public policy tool, not only considering health issues but also considering food production sustainability, humanitarian questions, and communication strategies, which are crucial to FBDG's efficiency.

Methodology

All the FBDGs presented in this manuscript were consulted on the FAO website ( 26 ), in which the link of the original dietary guidelines and the summary with the main information about the document content—such as official name, publication year, stakeholders' involvement, development process, implementation, evaluation, sustainability, and recommendations—for each country are available. The FBDGs written in English, Spanish, or Italian were read by the authors based on the original document, and the documents written in other languages (French, Arabians, etc.) were based on the FAO summary website.

The focus was to identify the strategies adopted on the FBDG construction, especially the ones regarding communication, food classification system, recommendations, and sustainability issues. The nutritional and sustainability analyses were based on the review articles and critical manuscripts developed by the experts in these areas, available on the main research platforms and newspapers, such as Web of Science, Science Direct, Pubmed, and The Lancet Commission.

In addition, the country selection was made with a goal to discuss all the world regions and different cultures (USA, Africa, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Arabian) to compare the strategies, social, and sustainability concerns, besides the nutritional one.

Food Supply Management in the Modern World

Food loss and waste (FLW) are the concepts used to describe losses during the food supply chain management ( 27 – 29 ). Nevertheless, there are divergent definitions about food loss (FL) and food waste (FW) ( 28 ). In this article, according to FAO ( 30 ), FL will be used to mean losses during the food production and/or processing while FW will be used to mean losses during the retail and domestic consumption. In other words, FL refers to losses at pre- and post-harvest, during the harvest, and food processing and FW refers to losses of food destined to human consumption ( Figure 1 ) ( 27 , 29 ).

Schema defining food loss (FL) and food waste (FW) in the food supply chain. Teuber and Jensen ( 28 ), with adaptions.

In addition to intensifying a clear contradiction between food production and hunger, reducing FLW is an urgent need to improve sustainability ( 28 , 30 ). FLW imply in the misuse of the world's limited energy. It represents an inefficient use of natural resources (particularly water and land) and a useless greenhouse gas emission ( 29 ), representing an evitable and unnecessary environmental impact ( 31 ). The world is going to have around nine billion people in the near future ( 32 ), thus, to feed this population, natural resources must be preserved.

Furthermore, adequate food is a universal, constitutional, and multidimensional human right advocated by the United Nations (UN) ( 33 ). Into sustainability dimension, this right is part of the duty to guarantee quality food access in sufficient quantities in the long term. Presently, at least 31% of the world's food production was lost or wasted, meaning that, around 1.3 billion tons of food have been wasted ( 1 , 27 , 34 – 36 ). According to Sharma et al. ( 35 ), the FLW represent 1.4 billion ha of fertile land, which encompasses 28% of the world agricultural area, 3.3 billion tons of CO 2 equivalents, and USD 936 billion undermanaged. Reducing FLW can represent USD one trillion in terms of the economy ( 29 ).

Food loss and waste occur during the food supply chain, from harvesting to home consumption ( 1 , 34 , 35 ). Between 25 and 40% of the vegetable production is lost due to the hygienic-sanitary conditions or because of a lack of standardization of quality criteria (size, color, texture, shape, appearance, etc.) or even due to the absence of an efficient cold chain ( 1 ). Moreover, 45% of the fruit and vegetables produced worldwide are not consumed, which corresponds to USD 2.6 trillion literally thrown in the trash, if social and economic aspects are considered ( 35 ). To reduce this impact, pesticides and synthetic fertilizers allowed by the Food Administrations and Agencies of each country are usually used. However, this method of reducing FL can imply in chemical contaminations harmful to the environment and to the customer's health ( 1 ).

On the other hand, according to Flanagan and Priyadarshini ( 34 ), 30% of the FW occurs during home consumption and 10% in the retail segment. Between 40 and 60% of all the household waste is FW, and 2/3 of the FW in Europe is avoidable. Furthermore, Flanagan and Priyadarshini ( 34 ) estimated that 50% of the human food production is wasted. Between 3 and 10% of the FW can result from inappropriate storing conditions besides labeling and shelf-life misunderstandings.

The population do not necessarily have knowledge about sustainability issues, FLW, and which kind of action they must take to reduce FW. For example, according to Williams et al. ( 31 ), UK consumers are more concerned about the discarding of the packaging than FW because they associate discarded packaging with environmental issues. Nevertheless, FW provokes huge environmental problems in underdeveloped countries. Moreover, there is a contradiction between sustainability discourse and consumption practices ( 37 ). In Brazil, routine habits such as eating, cooking, cleaning, and personal care are not sustainable ( 37 ), and they include FW resulting from exaggerated foodstuffs purchase ( 36 ). Some cultures—such as North-American and Brazilian—understand abundance as social growth and it directly implies (un)sustainable consequences ( 37 , 38 ). Moreover, domestic and routine habits are cultural and unconscious habits that follow moral and belonging rules ( 37 ).

The packaging system and industrialized food are criticized because of sustainability issues. It is true that some packaging and food production systems are not ecologically friendly yet (such as meat production and nonbiodegradable polymers). Moreover, there are chemical components applied in food production and food processes that can be harmful for health ( 1 , 39 ). However, most of the additives applied in the food industry are healthy and from natural sources ( 40 – 42 ). These additives are an important element to raise shelf-life and, consequently, reduce FW and hunger ( 40 ). As well as packaging, additives can be considered as more beneficial than damaging to the planet. In addition, scientists around the world are doing their duty to improve industry sustainability and develop a sustainable food supply system, such as emerging technology, circular economy, bioeconomy, and environmentally friendly packaging, among other approaches.

In a context of the certain abundance of food production and processing, the hunger scenario in contrast to FLW is an ethical, social, moral, and sustainability issue ( 34 , 36 ). Unlike the past centuries, hunger is not due to insufficient planting, but rather to the inequality and absence of adequate public policies ( 1 , 5 , 6 ), and FLW is even part of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the UN ( 27 , 43 ). Moraes et al. ( 29 ) described that government authorities have the role to advocate at all levels to implement sustainable programs. In this way, the FBDG can be a powerful tool.

Food Classification System

Currently, to improve health as well as to reduce noncommunicable diseases and malnutrition, more than a hundred countries worldwide developed FBDGs to orient their population in their food choices and healthy lifestyle. By classifying food and guiding people about the quantity and frequency of food intake, the FBDG also contributes to the achievements of SDGs ( 44 , 45 ). The FBDG recommendations can indirectly influence the amount of CO 2 emitted during the food production ( 15 , 44 , 46 ). Nonetheless, according to Ritchie et al. ( 44 ), the food intake and food classification recommendations are not clear. Therefore, to achieve the success of SDGs, an FBDG review is essential.

Food-Based Dietary Guideline is a public policy tool used by rulers—especially health authorities—to communicate and educate their population about food choices. The Italian FBDG highlights that this document must consider the environmental characterization, in other words, the FBDG must be appropriated to the economic, geopolitical, physical (availability), and sociocultural context ( 47 ). In this way, a multidisciplinary committee composed of technicians and scientists must elaborate the FBDG. Generally, health scientists (mainly nutritionists and medical doctors) elaborated food classifications ( 26 ).

Most of the FBDG used food classification by their nutritional composition ( Table 1 ). The North American FBDG classified food as vegetables, fruits, grains, proteins, and dairy ( 48 ). The Spanish one, in turn, classified food as wholegrain cereals and products, fruits, vegetables, olive oil, dairy products, fish, poultry, pulses, nuts, potatoes, eggs, red meat and meat products, sweets, snacks, and sweetened beverages ( 49 ). On the other hand, the Brazilian FBDG classified food according to what the authors considered as being food-processing levels ( 50 ). Moreover, in turn, the Uruguayan FBDG classified foods by their nutritional composition (vegetables and legumes; fruits; breads, flour, pasta, rice, and potatoes; milk and cheese; meat, fish, and eggs; seeds and oils; and sugars and sweets) and, inside these groups, distinguished them by their processing level ( 51 ) ( Table 1 ).

FBDG communication strategies relating to food classification.

FAO ( 26 ) .

Currently, at least seven food system classifications by processing levels are known ( Table 2 ). According to the Scientific Committee of the Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition ( 52 ), they are useful as complementary epidemiologic studies, such as the prevalence of obesity in specific geographical areas according to specific population groups—child, indigenous, and breastfeeding, for example—in economically disadvantaged sectors. Talens et al. ( 52 ) explain that each one of those classifications has its own definition of process and the classification coverage can be local (IFIC, UNC, NIPH, and IFPRI) or global (NOVA and SIGA). In addition, the readers interested in understanding more about these food classifications are invited to consult ( 52 ).

Food system classifications according to processing level.

Talens et al. ( 52 ) .

For being elaborated by health professionals, none of these classifications followed the definition of food processing as described by the Food Science, Technology and Engineering (FSTE) ( 53 ). Despite them being a processing level classification, most of these classifications were defined according to the food ingredients ( 52 ). Furthermore, only NOVA classification, whose description can be found in Moubarac et al. ( 54 ) and Monteiro et al. ( 55 ), was applied in an FBDG.

From the FSTE point of view, minimally processed food (MPF) is washed, sanitized, cut, or chopped foods, which are microbiologically safe and stable under the convenient packaging system, and are not thermally treated ( 56 ), while PF is a food product obtained by a sequence of unit operations ( 23 , 57 ), usually different from these related to MPF and with an important energy footprint ( 53 ). Overall, MPF is important because it is practical to use and can reduce cooking time and reduce FW at home, as these foods have been cleaned and cut, and their seeds and husks eliminated in the industry. And, PF is important mainly because of its long shelf-life, which means that the consumer can eat these foods several days or even months after-acquired. Nevertheless, overall, PF has also a negative appeal. However, the benefits of food processing must be recognized. For example, the benefits of food processing by thermal treatments include the inactivation of foodborne pathogens, natural toxins, or other detrimental constituents, prolongation of shelf life, improvement of digestibility and bioavailability of nutrients, improvement of palatability, taste, texture, and flavor, and enhancing functional properties, including augmented antioxidants and other defensive reactivity or increased antimicrobial effectiveness ( 58 ), besides contributing to decrease FLW. More definitions of PF foods and unit operations for food processing can be found in Jones ( 59 ), Floros et al. ( 23 ), and Aguilera ( 60 ).

Furthermore, recently, scientists from Sorbonne University (France) developed a nutritional system classification, called Nutri-Score (or 5C). Easy to understand, due to the adopted visual communication strategy, the Nutri-Score classification can be applied in food labeling ( 61 ). Nutri-Score classified food into five groups (A, B, C, D, and E) according to the food nutritional value, decreased from A to E ( 61 , 62 ). The Nutri-Score classification system is used by the French and Spanish Health Ministry ( 61 , 63 ). Botelho et al. ( 57 ) reinforced that, to identify the real source of nutrients, it is indispensable to examine food group classification. Furthermore, besides the FBDG use, food classification is also a strategic tool for epidemiological studies and health treatments.

Food-Based Dietary Guideline has been used as a tool to improve health and sustainability worldwide ( 13 , 43 , 59 , 64 – 67 ). As a strategy to achieve the UN's 17 goals, the SDGs also include clear and correct communication about nutrients and diet ( 16 , 43 ).

Proposing solutions to feeding issues is complex ( 23 , 68 ). It involves social, cultural, economic, and moral issues besides requiring a technical multidisciplinary knowledge. Generally, health professionals are involved in FBDG development ( 26 ). These professionals are experts in understanding how the ingredients and their nutrients are metabolized by the human body, representing something beneficial or not to health according to their frequency and quantity intake. This analysis is important to the success of FBDG; nonetheless, it is not enough to achieve its purpose.

Besides the nutritional point of view, these guidelines should also consider the fact that the target population, and the society as a whole, is made up of individuals who interact with each other. At most of the time, these same individuals respond to incentives and face trade-offs. Therefore, what is expected is that FBDG and/or policymakers have the knowledge of an optimal allocation of resources in the economy for consumers, producers, and the food system.

It should be noted that consumer demand for food is an important element in the formulation of several agricultural and food policies. Changes in food prices and income are the determinants of food demands. As Blundell ( 69 ) stated for some policy issues, the importance of empirical evidence on consumer behavior is indisputable. Price and income demand elasticities for food inform policymakers and researchers about how consumers make food purchasing decisions and help the design of effective nutrition policies.

It is a recurrent empirical finding, in several countries and at different historical moments that the participation of food expenditures in the family budget decreases as their income rises. In fact, this is one of the most established empirical findings and regularities in economics and is known as “Engel's law,” due to the studies by Engel ( 70 ). The reference for the validity of “Engel's law” is Houthakker ( 71 ), but Chai and Moneta ( 72 ) can be also consulted for a useful retrospective on Engel's work. Moreover, Chattopadhyay et al. ( 73 ) used Engel's law to develop a mathematical model that can be applied as a tool for economic policy formulation. In addition, Lancaster ( 74 ) proposed an alternative view on the consumer theory, that the goods are, in fact, a collection of characteristics. Sen ( 75 ), in turn, includes the functionality attributed by the person to the goods on the Lancaster consumer theory: In Sen's terminology, a “functioning” is what an individual chooses to do or to be, in contrast to a commodity, which is an instrument enabling her to achieve different functioning. Sen ( 75 ) states that it is not merely the achieved functioning that matters but the freedom that a person has in choosing from the set of feasible functioning, which is referred to as the person's “capability.” This has become the so-called capability approach. This approach has been immensely useful in the context of studying poverty, gender issues, political freedom, and the standard of living ( 76 ).

Engel's law has two broader implications for the structure of consumption expenditure ( 77 ). First, there is a tendency to food specialization of the poorer's budgets in the sense that they are less diversified than those of more affluent consumers. Within the food budget, cheaper, more starchy foods (such as rice, potatoes, and bread) are likely to be predominant for the poor, leading to less nutritious, less diversified diets ( 77 ). The second implication of Engel's law is related to the quality of consumption. The declining food share that accompanies income growth means that the quality of consumption rises. Moreover, as food is the good consumed intensively by the poor, there is a natural link between Engel's law and the measurement of quality. Based on a study for more than 150 countries, Clements and Si ( 77 ) found out some interesting relations between Engel's law, the variety of foods in the diet, and their quality. While the food share falls with higher incomes, there is a tendency for spending to be more evenly over foodstuffs reflecting a more diverse diet.

Diet, economic-social matters, and lifestyle are linked. Therefore, to achieve the purpose of FBDG, a multidisciplinary technical body is needed, and it includes social, economic, and human food chain (HFC) professionals. Health professional knowledge is part of the HFC. However, the HFC embraces soil handling, food production system, the complex and extensive food processing, filling and packaging, storage conditions at the sale point, and consumption. Thus, in addition to health professionals, the HFC must also be studied by Agronomists, Food Engineers, etc. Efficient actions toward better health standards applied in public policies demand interdisciplinary strategies, with public–private and academic support ( 5 , 14 , 23 , 68 ).

Some countries used different strategies in their FBDG, in some cases, including the target audience, such as the general population, breastfeeding, and children to the age 2, eldering, and indigenous ( 13 , 65 , 66 , 78 , 79 ). Generally, FBDGs encourage the consumption of water and a diversity of food in different proportions, always associated with regular physical activities ( 13 , 65 , 66 ). Ingredients such as sugar, fats, and salt are shown as items to be avoided or limited ( 13 , 26 , 65 , 66 ). Among all the FBDG presented in Table 1 , only those from Brazil and Canada do not recommend the regular practice of physical activities. In June 2021, the Brazilian Health Ministry released the “Physical Activity Guide for Brazilian Population” in a complement to FBDG. All FBDG can be found on the FAO website ( 26 ).

French, Chilean, and South African FBDG recommend the consumption of food rich in starch daily as a food base. According to Herforth et al. ( 65 ), more than half of the 90 FBDG analyzed in her review also encourage it. The UK FBDG, in turn, recommended several sources of carbohydrates as a food base, including bread and pasta. The South African FBDG focusing on regional foods was elaborated.

The Spanish FBDG—the healthiest country in the world, according to Bloomberg Global Health Index 2020 ( 80 )— opted for a visual communication strategy, in which combinations of physical activities and food choices were suggested, specifying quantities and frequencies. To Portuguese, Argentinian, and Chinese FBDG, healthy feeding should be complete, balanced, varied, and followed by physical activity. Italy—the second healthiest country in the world according to Bloomberg Global Health Index 2020 ( 80 )— developed a technical FBDG explaining some “true or false” food issues, clearly and straightforwardly. Chile's FBDG, in turn, recommends reducing the TV time and increasing the fast walking. USA's FBDG explains that the energy intake should be appropriated by the personal needs. In addition, the North American FBDG highlights that the food choice must respect the individual preferences and cultural habits.

Italian, French, Argentinian, Australian, Chinese, and Indian FBDG, besides the reduction of salt, sugar, and fat intake, also recommend to limit the consumption of alcohol. Brazilian, Canadian, Indian, Uruguayan, Ecuadorians, and Australian FBDG extend this recommendation to PF (Brazilian, Uruguayan, and Ecuadorian FBDG— “ultra-processed” food and, Canadian and Australian FBDG— “highly processed” food), whereas British and Indian FBDG extend to tabaco. Indian FBDG recommends limiting PF consumption, however, the distinction between industrialized food (PF) and fast food (restaurants franchise) is not clear. Ecuadorian FBDG, in turn, encouraged the reduction of PF, fast food, and sweetened beverages, as the Brazilian one. Among all FBDG presented in Table 1 , Japanese FBDG was the only one to orient their population to reduce FW. This is remarkable!

The majority of the countries adopted the visual communication strategy, except Brazil and Italy ( 13 , 65 , 66 , 79 ). Up to date, Italian visual communication has not been presented ( 26 ). Canada 1 , USA, 2 and France 3 also use a website to communicate with the population. According to Hess et al. ( 67 ), visual communication strategies do not change the FBDG efficiency and efficacy if the information is easy to understand and to follow.

To be effective, besides culturally accepted, the message must be clear, concise, practical, accessible, and easy to be remembered ( 59 , 65 , 78 , 79 ). The United Arab Emirates FBDG used a tourist/architectural-cultural landmark of the country as a visual communication strategy, the “Burj Khalifa”. This structure represents the feeding. The base of the structure is water. Each color represents a food group (cereals, vegetables, dairy, fruit, meat, and fat), and its proportion represents the quantity/frequency of the consumption ( 26 ). The Japanese FBDG applies a similar strategy (a popular toy).

There is a lack of data on the literature about the FBDG effectiveness. In the USA, according to Floros et al. ( 23 ), the FBDG implementation prompted companies to change the product's formulation and to create foods that are more nutritious. Baked products and cereals now have higher fiber content and use whole grains. Convenience-store food made of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains became available at the markets. The baby carrot, not existent as of then, was widely accepted by the target audience. After reformulations, the trans-fat content was reduced in many products ( 23 ).

All the FBDG shown in Table 1 classified food according to their nutritional composition, with an exception of the Brazilian FBDG ( 52 ). The Uruguayan FBDG classified food according to their nutritional composition and, inside each group indicated the processing level as well. In his strategy, the Brazilian FBDG classified food by their processing level based on the NOVA classification ( 50 ). Nonetheless, the main criterion on the NOVA classification is not necessarily linked to process as the action of processing food—using a sequence of unit operations—but according to the ingredients used in the formulation of the food, in other words, the product or chemical component added pre-, during, or post-processing.

In the NOVA classification, the term “ultra-processed” food stands out, which was associated with products with a low nutritional value ( 8 , 16 , 52 , 62 , 81 ). According to Monteiro et al. ( 55 ), “ultra-processed” food would be an industrial formulation with an additive not used in domestic cooking ( 8 , 81 ). Nevertheless, many Chefs are also using ingredients that are rarely used at home ( 40 ), but they are not considered as being “ultra-processed” food producers. Indeed, it is not so easy to define UPF because it can be so heterogeneous in nutritional composition, as demonstrated by Lorenzoni et al. ( 82 ), thus representing a heterogeneous group of foods with different characteristics.

Furthermore, according to Gibney ( 83 ), there was no official definition of the “ultra-processed” term, and the way that the author used it has changed over the years ( 16 , 32 , 52 ). Canada and Australia's FBDG do not use this strategy and also recommend avoiding “high processed” products, which are defined by them as products with high salt, sugar, and fat content; different from the “ultra-processed” definition.

According to the Scientific Committee of the Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition ( 52 ), there is no relation between health and the type or intensity of processing level ( 57 , 84 ). Nutritional quality and (ultra)processing are distinct concepts that can affect health in different ways by their own mechanisms ( 62 ). Nutritional value is related to the food formulation or composition ( 57 ), regardless of whether it is made at home, restaurant, or industry. Petrus et al. ( 53 ), Carretero et al. ( 16 ), and Knorr and Watzke ( 81 ) related that the argumentative basis of NOVA classification is ingredients and not process parameters. Adding ingredients is part of the formulation ( 57 ) and it is not related to process parameters. Process parameters arguments must involve temperature, pressure, time, amount or flow rate (for noncontinuous or continuous processes), and others, not ingredients. At home and in restaurants as well, homeworkers and Chefs also freeze, refrigerate, cook, ground, mold, dry, fry, and apply other unit operations ( 60 ). This made the Brazilian classification (NOVA) not comprehensible, accessible, practical, or viable ( 16 , 52 , 59 , 84 ).

Knorr and Watzke ( 81 ), Derbyshire ( 85 ), and Petrus et al. ( 53 ) considered the term “ultra-processed” more misleading than explanatory. Sadler et al. ( 84 ), Carretero et al. ( 16 ), Jones ( 59 ), and Talens et al. ( 52 ) reported that diets lacking “ultra-processed” food could also exceed the recommended amount of calories. In Brazil, salt and sugar intake is higher in food made at home than in industrialized ones ( 53 ). Ares et al. ( 8 ) described that the term “ultra-processed” is not widely understood. Galan et al. ( 62 ) showed that 21% of the ultra-processed food classified by NOVA has good nutritional quality. In addition, Petrus et al. ( 53 ) remind that the NOVA classification encourages raw or unprocessed food consumption, which cannot be safe and can increase foodborne diseases. Therefore, the NOVA classification and the “ultra-processed” term do not necessarily contribute to achieve healthily the SDGs. Consequently, the Brazilian FBDG should be revised in terms of its food classification system adopted.

Future Challenges

Obesity is not an individual responsibility factor due to mistaken motivational choices ( 23 , 86 ). Obesity and malnutrition can also be related to sustainability issues ( 7 , 12 , 86 ). The global warming consequences in food production will affect the underdeveloped countries more intensely, especially their economically disadvantaged part. According to Kleinert and Horton ( 86 ), solving malnutrition and obesity is necessary to implement sustainable business models with a focus on health promotion. It is not only enough to produce quality food but also self-sustainable and accessible food to the population.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that the current accessibility and production food system have not been efficient in protecting the population against hunger and obesity. In a social, economic, and health crisis scenario, we saw—at the same time—increasing hunger, obesity, and FLW ( 87 ). Not surprisingly, the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the UN's World Food Program. According to Berit Reiss-Andersen, chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, food access cannot become a weapon of war and conflict ( 88 ).

The current global food system not only fails in fulfilling the basic nutritional needs but also intensifies the pressure on the planet's sourcing boundaries ( 15 , 44 ). According to Earth Overshoot Day ( 89 ), a metric used to identify the point (in days) when humanity's demand for ecological resources exceeds what the Earth can regenerate at the same year, the Overshoot Day 2020 happened on August 22, 2021 and on July 29, 2021. The carbon footprint increased 6.6% from 2020. In other words, almost half of the planet resource consumption in 2021 will not be recovered in the same year.

According to Springmann et al. ( 45 ), the FBDG can also play a strong role in sustainability issues, which has not been adequately explored. FBDG, by guiding what and how much to eat, indirectly influences the amount of CO 2 generated during the food supply chain ( 15 , 44 – 46 ). Nevertheless, Ritchie et al. ( 44 ) report a lack of clarity in the recommendations.

In the future decades, the increasing population, urbanization, and globalization will pressurize the world, whereas natural sources will be increasingly scarce ( 14 ). Besides sustainability issues, it is worth noting one aspect regarding eating habits. In most western countries and based on women's increasing participation in the workforce, the food away from home (FAFH) is an increasing trend component of total food consumption and nutritional intake of adults and children. Empirical evidence shows that FAFH has been associated with poor diet quality ( 90 , 91 ). Hence, policies designed to influence nutritional and healthy outcomes would be incomplete if they did not address the role of FAFH ( 92 ).

In relation to home production (unpaid domestic and care work), it is interesting to note that, mostly women, home cooking declined in the late century and in the early years of the 21st century ( 93 – 96 ). Historically, food preparation and household cooking have been assigned to women, and food at home (FAH) has been linked to female gender roles and identity.

Women have also had an important performance in the traditional food knowledge (TFK). The TFK refers to a cultural tradition of sharing food, recipes and cooking skills, and techniques and passing down that collective wisdom through generations ( 97 ). According to Kwik ( 97 ), the value of this knowledge is hidden in a global food system offering an abundance of commercial convenience foods, which is a consequence of urbanization and is intensified by a dynamic lifestyle ( 98 ). In addition, in their study with children in the Netherlands, Folkvord et al. ( 99 ) explain that food exposition as the cooking programs on TV can influence eating behaviors. On the other side, according to Contreras and Ribas ( 100 ), the “omnivore's deculturalization” is not related to food industrialization but rather to food medicalization.

Although men have increased their contribution to home cooking ( 94 ), gender division of labor remains unequal, with women doing most of the household chores. In most societies, women keep carrying the responsibility for labor of food provision—the most basic labor of care. Another interesting topic to point out is related to the elderly or the ones who retire. Based on what was noted by Becker ( 101 ), that consumption is the output of a “home production” function that uses both expenditure and time as inputs. Aguiar and Hurst ( 102 ) were the first ones to address the topic of meal preparation. They recognize the inputs of food production include not only just food (modeled by food expenditures) but also the time spent shopping and preparing meals. They also showed that despite a sharp decline in food expenditures, neither the quantity nor the quality of food intake deteriorates with the retirement status. Also, what they find is that these declining expenditures are offset by increased time spent shopping and preparing meals, suggesting that time and money are substitutes in food production. Nevertheless, these practices are not necessarily defined only by prices/expenditure (some monetary measure) and time. Then, better FBDG outcomes would require other considerations, which are multiple (nutritional, environmental, social, and also economic among others) and varied.

Thereby, while the food production system does not pay attention to environmental, nutritional, social, and economic issues, no other measure will be efficient ( 15 ). The food production system begins in the cultivation technique, passing through processing food, filling, distribution to the market, and storage to provide effects on the human body. Despite an unquestionable technological development, while ensuring the scale production of microbiologically safe, nutritious, and appealing foods, the industry must also engage consumers and its stakeholders as well ( 103 ).

The food production chain will be sustainable to the planet and to the individuals only when the public–private partnership and academia are strongly established (Agronomic Engineering, Food Engineering, Health, and Public Policies) starting with a clear and an educational FBDG elaboration. In addition, the food industry must increase its transparency. A critical review of the abovementioned issues is essential for achieving the SDGs.

Malnutrition and obesity are the consequences of imbalance and inequality diet. Currently, with a certain abundance of food as a consequence of the food production and the food industry, the accessibility of food quality and balanced food consumption emerged as a new concern, both intensified by the absence of the population knowledge. In the contemporary world, malnutrition exists because of the inefficiency of public policies, social inequality, low purchasing power, and poor industrial-governmental agreements. Obesity is a preventable biopsychosocial and environmental pandemic, resulting from unhealthy lifestyles in a technological, sedentary, and urbane system. In this contradiction, the under-management resources are evidenced by the nonsustainable food supply chain practices, with high levels of FLW, which result in overload of the planet and rising food insecurity. To aggravate this situation, the daily population habits are not sustainable, most of the time, made unconsciously, and in 2020, the world was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic that challenged the social, structural, and ecological world system.

Because of this scenario already existing and serious even before the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide developed FBDGs with a goal to orient and educate the population in their food choices and, in consequence, in sustainability issues as well. The FBDG should inform the population about the current problems and orient their decision-making to mitigate them. However, this important public policy tool can and should be better used from a healthy, nutritional, social, and environmental point of view. Some FBDG, especially the Brazilian and the Uruguayan ones, choose an incorrect and misunderstood food system classification (NOVA classification) in terms of the process definition. FBDG must be clear, correct, and practical, otherwise, it will confuse the population and therefore lose its purpose and distort the economy.

With the COVID-19 pandemic, hunger, malnutrition, obesity, and FLW have been intensified. Evidence shows that we are not on the path to achieve the goals of SDGs. Moreover, we are facing a dramatic transformation in our access to and the availability of food—along with where we eat and with who. Therefore, a radical change in the feeding system is urgent and necessary.

Author Contributions

AA contributed to conceptualization, research, writing—original draft, editing, and reviewing. AB contributed to research and writing and reviewing. PS contributed to writing and reviewing, supervision, and project administration. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.

The São Paulo State Research Foundation (FAPESP), for the grant (2013/07914-8) and the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), for the grant of ALH (44.3196/2019-2), and research fellowship of PJAS (30.0799/2013-6). This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES): Finance Code 001 (MS fellowship of AA).

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Publisher's Note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank to Prof. Dra Silvia M. Franciscato Cozzolin (FCF-USP) for her critical review.

1 https://food-guide.canada.ca/en/

2 https://www.myplate.gov/

3 https://www.mangerbouger.fr/

Information

• Author Services

Initiatives

You are accessing a machine-readable page. In order to be human-readable, please install an RSS reader.

All articles published by MDPI are made immediately available worldwide under an open access license. No special permission is required to reuse all or part of the article published by MDPI, including figures and tables. For articles published under an open access Creative Common CC BY license, any part of the article may be reused without permission provided that the original article is clearly cited. For more information, please refer to https://www.mdpi.com/openaccess .

Feature papers represent the most advanced research with significant potential for high impact in the field. A Feature Paper should be a substantial original Article that involves several techniques or approaches, provides an outlook for future research directions and describes possible research applications.

Feature papers are submitted upon individual invitation or recommendation by the scientific editors and must receive positive feedback from the reviewers.

Editor’s Choice articles are based on recommendations by the scientific editors of MDPI journals from around the world. Editors select a small number of articles recently published in the journal that they believe will be particularly interesting to readers, or important in the respective research area. The aim is to provide a snapshot of some of the most exciting work published in the various research areas of the journal.

Original Submission Date Received: .

• Active Journals
• Find a Journal
• Proceedings Series
• For Authors
• For Reviewers
• For Editors
• For Librarians
• For Publishers
• For Societies
• For Conference Organizers
• Open Access Policy
• Institutional Open Access Program
• Special Issues Guidelines
• Editorial Process
• Research and Publication Ethics
• Article Processing Charges
• Testimonials
• Preprints.org
• SciProfiles
• Encyclopedia

Article Menu

• Subscribe SciFeed
• Recommended Articles
• Google Scholar
• on Google Scholar
• Table of Contents

Find support for a specific problem in the support section of our website.

Please let us know what you think of our products and services.

Visit our dedicated information section to learn more about MDPI.

JSmol Viewer

Towards the sustainable development goal of zero hunger: what role do institutions play.

1. Introduction

2. literature review, 2.1. institutions, 2.2. relationship between institutions and the “zero hunger” goal, 2.3. analytical framework, 3. methodology, 3.2. model specification and methods of estimation, 3.2.1. principal component analysis, 3.2.2. simultaneous equation modeling, instrumental variables (iv) and the two-stage least squares (2sls) method, three-stage least squares (3sls) method, 3.2.3. pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and random effects models, 4. results and discussion, 4.1. direct impact of institutions on sdg2 performance according to worldwide governance indicators, 4.2. direct impact of institutions on sdg2 performance according to political risk rating, 4.3. contrasting the direct impact of institutions on sdg2 in developing and developed countries, 4.4. indirect impact of institutions on sdg2 performance, 5. robustness check, 6. conclusions, institutional review board statement, informed consent statement, data availability statement, acknowledgments, conflicts of interest.

• UN General Assembly. Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. 21 October 2015, A/RES/70/1. Available online: https://www.refworld.org/docid/57b6e44.html (accessed on 15 December 2021).
• Mollier, L.; Seyler, F.J.; Ringler, C. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture. In A Guide to SDG Interactions: From Science to Implementation. Part Two: End Hunger, Achieve Food Security and Improved Nutrition and Promote Sustainable Agriculture ; Griggs, D.J., Nilsson, M., Stevance, A., McCollum, D., Eds.; International Council for Science (ICSU): Paris, France, 2017; Available online: https://council.science/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/SDGs-interactions-2-zero-hunger.pdf (accessed on 28 August 2021).
• FAO; IFAD; UNICEF; WFP; WHO. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. Transforming Food Systems for Food Security, Improved Nutrition and Affordable Healthy Diets for All ; FAO: Rome, Italy, 2021. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• FAO; IFAD; UNICEF; WFP; WHO. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020. Transforming Food Systems for Affordable Healthy Diets ; FAO: Rome, Italy, 2020. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• FAO; IFAD; UNICEF; WFP; WHO. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019. Safeguarding against Economic Slowdowns and Downturns ; FAO: Rome, Italy, 2019. [ Google Scholar ]
• FAO; IFAD; UNICEF; WFP; WHO. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2018. Building Climate Resilience for Food Security and Nutrition ; FAO: Rome, Italy, 2018. [ Google Scholar ]
• OECD. The Territorial Impact of COVID-19: Managing the Crisis and Recovery across Levels of Government ; OECD: Paris, France, 2021; pp. 1–140. [ Google Scholar ]
• Zhou, Z.; Wan, G. Food Insecurity in Asia: Why Institutions Matter ; Asian Development Bank Institute: Tokyo, Japan, 2017. [ Google Scholar ]
• Paarlberg, R.L. Governance and Food Security in an Age of Globalization ; 2020 Vision Briefs 72; International Food Policy Research Institute: Washington, DC, USA, 2002; p. 36. [ Google Scholar ]
• Echarren, P.Y. Hunger and Conflict. In Food Security and Global Security ; Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies: Madrid, Spain, 2013; Chapter 6; pp. 171–194. [ Google Scholar ]
• Abdullah, A.; Qingshi, W.; Awan, M.A.; Ashraf, J. The Impact of Political Risk and Institutions on Food Security. Curr. Res. Nutr. Food Sci. J. 2020 , 8 , 924–941. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Anser, M.K.; Osabohien, R.; Olonade, O.; Karakara, A.A.; Olalekan, I.B.; Ashraf, J.; Igbinoba, A. Impact of ICT adoption and governance interaction on food security in West Africa. Sustainability 2021 , 13 , 5570. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Ogunniyi, A.I.; Mavrotas, G.; Olagunju, K.O.; Fadare, O.; Adedoyin, R. Governance quality, remittances and their implications for food and nutrition security in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Dev. 2020 , 127 , 104752. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Önder, H. The impact of corruption on food security from a macro perspective. Futur. Food J. Food Agric. Soc. 2021 , 9 , 1–11. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Zawojska, A.; Siudek, T. Food Security and Country’s Institutional Environment: The Case of the European Union Member States. In Proceedings of the 170th EAAE Seminar ‘Governance of Food Chains and Consumption Dynamics: What are the Impacts on Food Security and Sustainability? Montpellier, France, 15–17 May 2019. [ Google Scholar ]
• Biermann, F.; Kanie, N.; Kim, R.E. Global governance by goal-setting: The novel approach of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2017 , 26–27 , 26–31. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Fukuda-Parr, S. Global Development Goal Setting as a Policy Tool for Global Governance: Intended and Unintended Consequences ; No. 108. Working Paper; International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth: Brasilia, Brazil, 2013. [ Google Scholar ]
• Glass, L.M.; Newig, J. Governance for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals: How important are participation, policy coherence, reflexivity, adaptation and democratic institutions? Earth Syst. Gov. 2019 , 2 , 100031. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Miyazawa, I.; Zusman, E. A Quantitative Analysis of the Effect of Governance on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): Implications for the Post-2015 Development Agenda ; Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Discussion Paper 2014-02; IGES: Kanagawa, Japan, 2015. [ Google Scholar ]
• Hall, R.E.; Jones, C.I. Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others? Q. J. Econ. 1999 , 114 , 83–116. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Acemoglu, D.; Johnson, S.; Robinson, J.A. The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. Am. Econ. Rev. 2001 , 91 , 1369–1401. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• North, D.C. Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (Political Economy of Institutions and Decisions) ; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 1990. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Hodgson, G.M. What are institutions? J. Econ. Issues 2006 , 40 , 1–25. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Acemoglu, D.; Johnson, S.; Robinson, J.A. Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. Handb. Econ. Growth 2005 , 1 , 385–472. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Weingast, B.R. Constitutions as Governance Structures: The Political Foundations of Secure Markets. J. Institutional Theor. Econ. 1993 , 149 , 286–311. [ Google Scholar ]
• Acemoglu, D.; Robinson, J.A. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty ; Crown: New York, NY, USA, 2012. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Vos, R. Thought for Food: Strengthening Global Governance of Food Security. Un Desa 2015 , 29 , 1. [ Google Scholar ]
• Pereira, L.M.; Ruysenaar, S. Moving from traditional government to new adaptive governance: The changing face of food security responses in South Africa. Food Secur. 2012 , 4 , 41–58. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Persson, T.; Tabellini, G. Democratic capital: The nexus of political and economic change. Am. Econ. J. Macroecon. 2009 , 1 , 88–126. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ Green Version ]
• Uchendu, F.N.; Abolarin, T.O. Corrupt practices negatively influenced food security and live expectancy in developing countries. Pan Afr. Med. J. 2015 , 20 , 110. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Helal, G.; Ahmadigheidari, D.; Kosoy, N.; Melgar–Quinonez, H. Exploring the Relationship Between Corruption and Food Insecurity on a Global Scale. FASEB J. 2016 , 30 , 1149. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Ionel, B. European Regulation in the Veterinary Sanitary and Food Safety Area, a Component of the European Policies on the Safety of Food Products and the Protection of Consumer Interests: A 2007 Retrospective. Part Two: Regulations. Universul Juridic Supliment 2016 , 16–19. Available online: http://revista.universuljuridic.ro/supliment/european-regulation-veterinary-sanitary-food-safety-area-component-european-policies-safety-food-products-protection-consumer-interests-2007-retrospective-2/ (accessed on 8 April 2022).
• Ionel, B. European Regulation in the Veterinary Sanitary and Food Safety Area, a Component of the European Policies on the Safety of Food Products and the Protection of Consumer Interests: A 2007 Retrospective. Part Three: Directives. Universul Juridic Supliment 2016 , 20–23. [ Google Scholar ]
• Ionel, B. European Regulation in the Veterinary Sanitary and Food Safety Area, a Component of the European Policies on the Safety of Food Products and the Protection of Consumer Interests: A 2007 Retrospective. Part Four: Decisions. Universul Juridic Supliment 2016 , 24–27. [ Google Scholar ]
• FAO. North-Eastern Nigeria: Situation Report ; FAO: Rome, Italy, 2017; pp. 64–65. [ Google Scholar ]
• Brinkman, H.; Hendrix, C.S. Food Insecurity and Violent Conflict: Causes, Consequences, and Addressing the Challenges ; World Food Programme: Rome, Italy, 2011. [ Google Scholar ]
• Messer, E.; Cohen, M.J. Conflict, Food Insecurity and Globalization. Food Cult. Soc. 2007 , 10 , 297–315. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Pawlak, K.; Kołodziejczak, M. The role of agriculture in ensuring food security in developing countries: Considerations in the context of the problem of sustainable food production. Sustainability 2020 , 12 , 5488. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2012 Global Food Policy Report ; International Food Policy Research Institute: Washington, DC, USA, 2013. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• World Bank; IFPRI. Gender and Governance in Rural Services ; World Bank: Bretton Woods, NH, USA, 2010. [ Google Scholar ]
• Hanjra, M.A.; Ferede, T.; Blackwell, T.; Jackson, J.; Abbas, A. Global food security: Facts, issues, interventions and public policy implications. In Global Food Security: Emerging Issues and Economic Implications ; Nova Science: New York, NY, USA, 2013; pp. 1–35. [ Google Scholar ]
• Timmer, C.P. Food security and economic growth: An Asian perspective. Asia. Pac. Econ. Lit. 2005 , 19 , 1–17. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Dreze, J.; Sen, A. Hunger and Public Action ; Clarendon Press: Oxford, UK, 1989. [ Google Scholar ]
• Mittal, A. The 2008 Food Price Crisis: Rethinking of Food Security Policies ; United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 2009; United Nations: New York, NY, USA; Geneva, Switzerland, 2009. [ Google Scholar ]
• Davis, O.; Geiger, B.B. Did food insecurity rise across Europe after the 2008 crisis? An analysis across welfare regimes. Soc. Policy Soc. 2017 , 16 , 343–360. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ Green Version ]
• International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Global Nutrition Report 2016: From Promise to Impact: Ending Malnutrition by 2030 ; International Food Policy Research Institute: Washington, DC, USA, 2016. [ Google Scholar ]
• Acemoglu, D.; Gallego, F.A.; Robinson, J.A. Institutions, human capital, and development. Annu. Rev. Econom. 2014 , 6 , 875–912. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ Green Version ]
• Acemoglu, D.; Robinson, J. The Role of Institutions in Growth and Development. Rev. Econ. Inst. 2010 , 1 . Available online: http://www.rei.unipg.it/rei/article/view/14 (accessed on 5 September 2021). [ CrossRef ]
• Aidt, T.S. Corruption, institutions, and economic development. Oxford Rev. Econ. Policy 2009 , 25 , 271–291. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ Green Version ]
• Rodrik, D.; Subramanian, A.; Trebbi, F. Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. J. Econ. Growth 2004 , 9 , 131–165. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Sachs, J.; Schmidt-Traub, G.; Kroll, C.; Lafortune, G.; Fuller, G.; Woelm, F. Sustainable Development Goals and Covid-19: Sustainable Development Report 2020 ; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2020. [ Google Scholar ]
• Svirydzenka, K. Introducing a New Broad-Based Index of Financial Development ; IMF Working Paper 2016; IMF: Washington, DC, USA; Volume 16, p. 1. [ CrossRef ] [ Green Version ]
• International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). ICRG Methodology ; International Country Risk Guide: Liverpool, NY, USA, 2016; pp. 1–17. [ Google Scholar ]
• Kaufmann, D.; Krayy, A.; Zoido, P. Aggregating Governance Indicators. Policy Research Working Paper 1999. Available online: https://ssrn.com/abstract=188548 (accessed on 6 September 2021).
• Hefeker, C.; Busse, M. Political risk, democratic institutions, and foreign direct investment. J. Polit. 2005 , 70 , 1040–1052. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Güney, T. Governance and sustainable development: How effective is governance? J. Int. Trade Econ. Dev. 2017 , 26 , 316–335. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• La Porta, R.; Lopez-de-Silanes, F.; Shleifer, A.; Vishny, R. The Quality of Government. J. Law Econ. Organiz. 1999 , 15 , 222–279. Available online: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3554950 (accessed on 20 August 2021). [ CrossRef ]
• Islam, N. Settler Mortality Rate as an Instrument for Institutional Quality ; Working Paper Series 2004; The International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development: Kitakyushu, Japan, 2004; Volume 28. [ Google Scholar ]
• Mauro, P. Corruption and Growth. Q. J. Econ. 1995 , 110 , 681–712. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Tebaldi, E.; Elmslie, B. Do Institutions Impact Innovation? Munich Personal RePEc Archive, no. 8757; Bryant University: Smithfield, RI, USA, 2008. [ Google Scholar ]
• Lehne, J.; Mo, J.; Plekhanov, A. What Determines the Quality of Economic Institutions? Cross-Country Evidence. SSRN Electron. J. 2014 . [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Stock, J.H.; Yogo, M. Testing for weak instruments in linear IV regression. In Andrews DWK Identification and Inference for Econometric Models ; Cambridge University Press: New York, NY, USA, 2005; pp. 80–108. [ Google Scholar ]
• Zellner, A.; Theil, H. Three-Stage Least Squares: Simultaneous Estimation of Simultaneous Equations. Econometrica 1962 , 30 , 54–78. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Sobel, M.E. Asymptotic Confidence Intervals for Indirect Effects in Structural Equation Models. Sociol. Methodol. 1982 , 13 , 290. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Eom, T.H.; Sock, H.L.; Hua, X. Introduction to Panel Data Analysis. In Handbook of Research Methods in Public Administration , 2nd ed.; Yang, K., Miller, G.J., Eds.; Auerbach Publications: Boca Raton, FL, USA, 2008; pp. 575–594. [ Google Scholar ]
• Jann, B. Plotting regression coefficients and other estimates. Stata J. 2014 , 14 , 708–737. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ Green Version ]
• Osabohien, R.; Osabuohien, E.; Ohalete, P. Agricultural sector performance, institutional framework and food security in Nigeria. Bio-Based Appl. Econ. 2019 , 8 , 161–178. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Asare-Nuamah, P.; Amoah, A.; Asongu, S. Achieving food security in Ghana: Does governance matter? SSRN Electron. J. 2021 . [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Rocha Menocal, A.; Sharma, B. Joint Evaluation of Citizens’ Voice and Accountability: Synthesis Report ; Department for International Development: London, UK, 2008. [ Google Scholar ]
• Scanlan, S.J.; Jenkins, J.C. Military power and food security: A cross-national analysis of less-developed countries, 1970–1990. Int. Stud. Q. 2001 , 45 , 159–187. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Teodosijević, S.B. Armed Conflicts and Food Security ; ESA Working Paper 289088; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA): Rome, Italy, 2003. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Gates, S.; Hegre, H.; Nygård, H.M.; Strand, H. Development Consequences of Armed Conflict. World Dev. 2012 , 40 , 1713–1722. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Jeanty, P.W.; Hitzhusen, F. Analyzing the effects of conflicts on food security in developing countries: An instrumental variable panel data approach. In Proceedings of the American Agricultural Economic Association Annual Meeting, Long Beach, CA, USA, 23–26 July 2006. [ Google Scholar ]
• Holleman, C.; Jackson, J.; Sánchez, M.V.; Vos, R. Sowing the Seeds of Peace for Food Security: Disentangling the Nexus between Conflict, Food Security, and Peace. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Technical Study 2. 2017. Available online: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7821e.pdf (accessed on 25 August 2021).
• Góes, C. Institutions and growth: A GMM/IV Panel VAR approach. Econ. Lett. 2016 , 138 , 85–91. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Schouten, G.; Vink, M.; Vellema, S. Institutional diagnostics for African food security: Approaches, methods and implications. NJAS—Wageningen J. Life Sci. 2018 , 84 , 1–5. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]

Click here to enlarge figure

Share and Cite

Galabada, J.K. Towards the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger: What Role Do Institutions Play? Sustainability 2022 , 14 , 4598. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14084598

Galabada JK. Towards the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger: What Role Do Institutions Play? Sustainability . 2022; 14(8):4598. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14084598

Galabada, Jalini Kaushalya. 2022. "Towards the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger: What Role Do Institutions Play?" Sustainability 14, no. 8: 4598. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14084598

Article Metrics

Article access statistics, further information, mdpi initiatives, follow mdpi.

Subscribe to receive issue release notifications and newsletters from MDPI journals

Food security and nutrition and sustainable agriculture

Related sdgs, end hunger, achieve food security and improve ....

Description

Publications.

As the world population continues to grow, much more effort and innovation will be urgently needed in order to sustainably increase agricultural production, improve the global supply chain, decrease food losses and waste, and ensure that all who are suffering from hunger and malnutrition have access to nutritious food. Many in the international community believe that it is possible to eradicate hunger within the next generation, and are working together to achieve this goal.

World leaders at the 2012 Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) reaffirmed the right of everyone to have access to safe and nutritious food, consistent with the right to adequate food and the fundamental right of everyone to be free from hunger. The UN Secretary-General’s Zero Hunger Challenge launched at Rio+20 called on governments, civil society, faith communities, the private sector, and research institutions to unite to end hunger and eliminate the worst forms of malnutrition.

The Zero Hunger Challenge has since garnered widespread support from many member States and other entities. It calls for:

• Zero stunted children under the age of two
• 100% access to adequate food all year round
• All food systems are sustainable
• 100% increase in smallholder productivity and income
• Zero loss or waste of food

The Sustainable Development Goal to “End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture” (SDG2) recognizes the inter linkages among supporting sustainable agriculture, empowering small farmers, promoting gender equality, ending rural poverty, ensuring healthy lifestyles, tackling climate change, and other issues addressed within the set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals in the Post-2015 Development Agenda.

Beyond adequate calories intake, proper nutrition has other dimensions that deserve attention, including micronutrient availability and healthy diets. Inadequate micronutrient intake of mothers and infants can have long-term developmental impacts. Unhealthy diets and lifestyles are closely linked to the growing incidence of non-communicable diseases in both developed and developing countries.

Adequate nutrition during the critical 1,000 days from beginning of pregnancy through a child’s second birthday merits a particular focus. The Scaling-Up Nutrition (SUN) Movement has made great progress since its creation five years ago in incorporating strategies that link nutrition to agriculture, clean water, sanitation, education, employment, social protection, health care and support for resilience.

Extreme poverty and hunger are predominantly rural, with smallholder farmers and their families making up a very significant proportion of the poor and hungry. Thus, eradicating poverty and hunger are integrally linked to boosting food production, agricultural productivity and rural incomes.

Agriculture systems worldwide must become more productive and less wasteful. Sustainable agricultural practices and food systems, including both production and consumption, must be pursued from a holistic and integrated perspective.

Land, healthy soils, water and plant genetic resources are key inputs into food production, and their growing scarcity in many parts of the world makes it imperative to use and manage them sustainably. Boosting yields on existing agricultural lands, including restoration of degraded lands, through sustainable agricultural practices would also relieve pressure to clear forests for agricultural production. Wise management of scarce water through improved irrigation and storage technologies, combined with development of new drought-resistant crop varieties, can contribute to sustaining drylands productivity.

Halting and reversing land degradation will also be critical to meeting future food needs. The Rio+20 outcome document calls for achieving a land-degradation-neutral world in the context of sustainable development. Given the current extent of land degradation globally, the potential benefits from land restoration for food security and for mitigating climate change are enormous. However, there is also recognition that scientific understanding of the drivers of desertification, land degradation and drought is still evolving.

There are many elements of traditional farmer knowledge that, enriched by the latest scientific knowledge, can support productive food systems through sound and sustainable soil, land, water, nutrient and pest management, and the more extensive use of organic fertilizers.

An increase in integrated decision-making processes at national and regional levels are needed to achieve synergies and adequately address trade-offs among agriculture, water, energy, land and climate change.

Given expected changes in temperatures, precipitation and pests associated with climate change, the global community is called upon to increase investment in research, development and demonstration of technologies to improve the sustainability of food systems everywhere. Building resilience of local food systems will be critical to averting large-scale future shortages and to ensuring food security and good nutrition for all.

State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020

Updates for many countries have made it possible to estimate hunger in the world with greater accuracy this year. In particular, newly accessible data enabled the revision of the entire series of undernourishment estimates for China back to 2000, resulting in a substantial downward shift of the seri...

Food and Agriculture

Our planet faces multiple and complex challenges in the 21st century. The new 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development commits the international community to act together to surmount them and transform our world for today’s and future generations....

Food Security and Nutrition in Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

The outcome document of Rio+20, “The Future We Want” (United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, June 2012) acknowledged that SIDS remains a special case for sustainable development. Building on the Barbados Programme of Action and the Mauritius Strategy, the document calls for the conv...

Global Blue Growth Initiative and Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

Three-quarters of the Earth’s surface is covered by oceans and seas which are an engine for global economic growth and a key source of food security. The global ocean economic activity is estimated to be USD 3–5 trillion. Ninety percent of global trade moves by marine transport. Over 30 percent of g...

FAO Strategy for Partnerships with the Private Sector

The fight against hunger can only be won in partnership with governments and other non-state actors, among which the private sector plays a fundamental role. FAO is actively pursuing these partnerships to meet the Zero Hunger Challenge together with UN partners and other committed stakeholders. We ...

FAO Strategy for Partnerships with Civil Society Organizations

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is convinced that hunger and malnutrition can be eradicated in our lifetime. To meet the Zero Hunger Challenge, political commitment and major alliances with key stakeholders are crucial. Only through effective collaboration with go...

FAO and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals

The Sustainable Development Goals offer a vision of a fairer, more prosperous, peaceful and sustainable world in which no one is left behind. In food - the way it is grown, produced, consumed, traded, transported, stored and marketed - lies the fundamental connection between people and the planet, ...

Emerging Issues for Small Island Developing States

The 2012 UNEP Foresight Process on Emerging Global Environmental Issues primarily identified emerging environmental issues and possible solutions on a global scale and perspective. In 2013, UNEP carried out a similar exercise to identify priority emerging environmental issues that are of concern to ...

Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

This Agenda is a plan of action for people, planet and prosperity. It also seeks to strengthen universal peace in larger freedom, We recognize that eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions, including extreme poverty, is the greatest global challenge and an indispensable requirement for su...

Farmer’s organizations in Bangladesh: a mapping and capacity assessment

Farmers’ organizations (FOs) in Bangladesh have the potential to be true partners in, rather than “beneficiaries” of, the development process. FOs bring to the table a deep knowledge of the local context, a nuanced understanding of the needs of their communities and strong social capital. Increasing...

Good practices in building innovative rural institutions to increase food security

Continued population growth, urbanization and rising incomes are likely to continue to put pressure on food demand. International prices for most agricultural commodities are set to remain at 2010 levels or higher, at least for the next decade (OECD-FAO, 2010). Small-scale producers in many developi...

The State of Food Insecurity in the World

When the 69th United Nations General Assembly begins its General Debate on 23 September 2014, 464 days will remain to the end of 2015, the target date for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). A stock-taking of where we stand on reducing hunger and malnutrition shows that progress in hu...

2024 SDG Global Business Forum

 The 2024 SDG Global Business Forum will take place virtually as a special event alongside the 2024 High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF), the United Nations central platform for the follow-up and review of the SDGs. The Forum will place special emphasis on the SDGs under

Expert Group Meeting on SDG2 and its interlinkages with other SDGs

The theme of the 2024 High-Level Political Forum (HLPF) is “Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda and eradicating poverty in times of multiple crises: the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions”. The 2024 HLPF will have an in-depth review of Sustainable Development Goa

Expert Group Meetings for 2024 HLPF Thematic Review

The theme of the 2024 High Level Political Forum (HLPF) is “Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda and eradicating poverty in times of multiple crisis: the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions”. The 2024 HLPF will have an in-depth review of SDG 1 on No Poverty, SDG 2 on Zero Hu

International Workshop on “Applications of Juncao Technology and its contribution to alleviating poverty, promoting employment and protecting the environment”

According to the United Nations Food Systems Summit that was held in 2021, many of the world’s food systems are fragile and not fulfilling the right to adequate food for all. Hunger and malnutrition are on the rise again. According to FAO’s “The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023

Second Regional Workshop on “Applications of Juncao Technology and its Contribution to the Achievement of Sustainable Agriculture and the Sustainable Development Goals in Africa” 18 - 19 December 2023

Ⅰ. Purpose of the Workshop At the halfway point of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the application of science and technology in developing sustainable agricultural practices has the potential to accelerate transformative change in support of the Sustainable Development Goals. In that r

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) 2023 Launch

On 12 July 2023 from 10 AM to 12 PM (EDT), FAO and its co-publishing partners will be launching, for the fifth time, the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report at a Special Event in the margins of the ECOSOC High-Level Political Forum (HLPF). The 2023 edition

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022 (SOFI) Launch

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World is an annual flagship report to inform on progress towards ending hunger, achieving food security and improving nutrition and to provide in-depth analysis on key challenges for achieving this goal in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021 (SOFI)

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021 (SOFI 2021) report presents the first evidence-based global assessment of chronic food insecurity in the year the COVID-19 pandemic emerged and spread across the globe. The SOFI 2021 report will also focus on complementary food system solu

Committee on World Food Security (CFS 46)

Ministerial meeting on food security and climate adaptation in small island developing states.

The proposed meeting will offer SIDS Ministers and Ambassadors the opportunity to explore the implications of the SAMOA Pathway as it relates to food security and nutrition and climate change adaptation. The ultimate objective is to enhance food security, health and wellbeing in SIDS. Ministers an

• January 2015 SDG 2 SDG2 focuses on ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition and promoting sustainable agriculture. In particular, its targets aims to: end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round by 2030 (2.1); end all forms of malnutrition by 2030, including achieving, by 2025, the internationally agreed targets on stunting and wasting in children under 5 years of age, and address the nutritional needs of adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating women and older persons (2.2.); double,by 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers, in particular women, indigenous peoples, family farmers, pastoralists and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other productive resources and inputs, knowledge, financial services, markets and opportunities for value addition and non-farm employment (2.3); ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality (2.4); by 2020, maintain the genetic diversity of seeds, cultivated plants and farmed and domesticated animals and their related wild species, including through soundly managed and diversified seed and plant banks at the national, regional and international levels, and promote access to and fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge, as internationally agreed (2.5); The alphabetical goals aim to: increase investment in rural infrastructure, agricultural research and extension services, technology development and plant and livestock gene banks , correct and prevent trade restrictions and distortions in world agricultural markets as well as adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets and their derivatives and facilitate timely access to market information, including on food reserves, in order to help limit extreme food price volatility.
• January 2014 Rome Decl. on Nutrition and Framework for Action The Second International Conference on Nutrition (ICN2) took place at FAO Headquarters, in Rome in November 2014. The Conference resulted in the Rome Declaration on Nutrition and the Framework for Action, a political commitment document and a flexible policy framework, respectively, aimed at addressing the current major nutrition challenges and identifying priorities for enhanced international cooperation on nutrition.
• January 2012 Future We Want (Para 108-118) In Future We Want, Member States reaffirm their commitments regarding "the right of everyone to have access to safe, sufficient and nutritious food, consistent with the right to adequate food and the fundamental right of everyone to be free from hunger". Member States also acknowledge that food security and nutrition has become a pressing global challenge. At Rio +20, the UN Secretary-General’s Zero Hunger Challenge was launched in order to call on governments, civil society, faith communities, the private sector, and research institutions to unite to end hunger and eliminate the worst forms of malnutrition.
• January 2009 UN SG HLTF on Food and Nutrition Security The UN SG HLTF on Food and Nutrition Security was established by the UN SG, Mr Ban Ki-moon in 2008 and since then has aimed at promoting a comprehensive and unified response of the international community to the challenge of achieving global food and nutrition security. It has also been responsible for building joint positions among its members around the five elements of the Zero Hunger Challenge.
• January 2002 Report World Food Summit +5 The World Food Summit +5 adopted a declaration, calling on the international community to fulfill the pledge, made at the original World Food Summit in 1996, to reduce the number of hungry people to about 400 million by 2015.
• January 2000 MDG 1 MDG 1 aims at eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. Its three targets respectively read: halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1.25 a day (1.A), achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people (1.B), halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger (1.C).
• January 1996 Rome Decl. on World Food Security The Summit aimed to reaffirm global commitment, at the highest political level, to eliminate hunger and malnutrition, and to achieve sustainable food security for all. Thank to its high visibility, the Summit contributed to raise further awareness on agriculture capacity, food insecurity and malnutrition among decision-makers in the public and private sectors, in the media and with the public at large. It also set the political, conceptual and technical blueprint for an ongoing effort to eradicate hunger at global level with the target of reducing by half the number of undernourished people by no later than the year 2015. The Rome Declaration defined seven commitments as main pillars for the achievement of sustainable food security for all whereas its Plan of Action identified the objectives and actions relevant for practical implementation of these seven commitments.
• January 1992 1st ICN The first International Conference on Nutrition (ICN) convened at the FAO's Headquarters in Rome to identify common strategies and methods to eradicate hunger and malnutrition. The conference was organized by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and was attended by delegations from 159 countries as well as the European Economic Community, 16 United Nations organizations, 11 intergovernmental organizations, and 144 non-governmental organizations.
• January 1986 Creation of AGROSTAT (now FAOSTAT) Since 1986, AGROSTAT, now known as FAOSTAT, has provided cross sectional data relating to food and agriculture as well as time-series for some 200 countries.
• January 1979 1st World Food Day World Food Day is celebrated each year on 16 October to commemorate the day on which FAO was founded in 1945. Established on the occasion of FAO Twentieth General Conference held in November 1979, the first World Food Day was celebrated in 1981 and was devoted to the theme "Food Comes First".

SLIME MOLD TIME MOLD

Mad science blogging, a chemical hunger – part x: what to do about it.

[ PART I – MYSTERIES ] [ PART II – CURRENT THEORIES OF OBESITY ARE INADEQUATE ] [ PART III – ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINANTS ] [ INTERLUDE A – CICO KILLER, QU’EST-CE QUE C’EST? ] [ PART IV – CRITERIA ] [ PART V – LIVESTOCK ANTIBIOTICS ] [ INTERLUDE B – THE NUTRIENT SLUDGE DIET ] [ PART VI – PFAS ] [ PART VII – LITHIUM ] [ INTERLUDE C – HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE REDDIT COMMENTS ] [ INTERLUDE D – GLYPHOSATE (AKA THE ACTIVE INGREDIENT IN ROUNDUP) ] [ INTERLUDE E – BAD SEEDS ] [ PART VIII – PARADOXICAL REACTIONS ] [ PART IX – ANOREXIA IN ANIMALS ] [ INTERLUDE F – DEMOGRAPHICS ] [ INTERLUDE G – Li+ ] [ INTERLUDE H – WELL WELL WELL ] [ INTERLUDE I – THE FATTEST CITIES IN THE LAND ]

Assuming you take our main thesis seriously — that obesity is the result of environmental contaminants — what should you do about it?

Our suggestions are very prosaic: Be nice to yourself. Eat mostly what you want. Trust your instincts. 

Diet and exercise won’t cure obesity, but this is actually good news for diet and exercise. You don’t need to put the dream of losing weight on their shoulders, and you can focus on their actual benefits instead. You should focus on your diet — not to get thin, but to make sure that you have enough energy to do everything you want to do in life. This means eating enough and making sure you get what you need. You should exercise — not to slim down, but to gain strength and energy, and you shouldn’t get discouraged when you don’t drop 50 lbs fast.

Don’t be mean to fat people. If you’re fat, don’t be mean to yourself about it. Don’t be a dick.

And this doesn’t apply to most of our readers, of course, but just in general — we gotta stop spending money on circular nutrition research. It’s clearly not going anywhere. Other theories of obesity don’t engage with the observations that are out there about the obesity epidemic , and try to explain the wrong thing.

Most theories focus on the dynamics of individual weight loss, under the assumption that obesity is the result of the normal mechanics of eating, exercise, weight loss, and weight gain. But we think that the dynamics of individual weight loss have almost nothing to do with the real question, which is why obesity rates are so much higher now than they were in the 1970s, and the rest of human history. Individuals can gain or lose 15-20 lbs from their set point, but this is messing around within the range of control — we only care about the set point.

Let’s say it’s 50 °F outside. If your thermostat is set to 72 °F and you open the door, your house’s temperature will drop at first and then will go back up to the set point of 72 °F. If your thermostat is set to 110 °F and you open the door, your house’s temperature will drop at first and then will go back up to the set point of 110 °F (assuming your furnace is strong enough).

This is a standard feature of how homeostatic systems respond to major disturbances — the controlled value swings around for a bit until the system can get it back under control, and send it back to the set point. So all the diet and exercise studies we’ve done over the last 50 years have just been an exercise in who can create the biggest, most jarring disturbance — but the lipostat always finds a way to bring your weight back where it wants it.

So all these “punch the control system as hard as we can” studies don’t tell us anything about why the thermostat is set to 110 °F in the first place, which is what we’re really interested in.

Get It Outta Me

Bestselling nutrition books usually have this part where they tell you what you should do differently to lose weight and stay lean. Many of you are probably looking forward to us making a recommendation like this. We hate to buck the trend, but we don’t think there’s much you can do to keep from becoming obese, and not much you can do to drop pounds if you’re already overweight. 

We gotta emphasize just how pervasive the obesity epidemic really is. Some people do lose lots of weight on occasion, it’s true, but in pretty much every group of people everywhere in the world, obesity rates just go up, up, up. We’ll return to our favorite quote from The Lancet :

“Unlike other major causes of preventable death and disability, such as tobacco use, injuries, and infectious diseases, there are no exemplar populations in which the obesity epidemic has been reversed by public health measures.”

The nonprofit ourworldindata.org has data from the WHO covering obesity rates in almost every country in the world from 1975 to 2016 . In every country in this dataset, the obesity rate either stayed the same or increased every single year from 1975 to 2016. There is not one example of obesity rates declining for even a single country in a single year. Countries like Japan and Vietnam are some of the leanest countries in the world (about 4% and 2% obese, respectively), but in this dataset at least, even these super-lean countries don’t see even a single year where their obesity rates decline.

We see the same trend even for smaller-scale data. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has a dataset of county-level obesity data from 2001 to 2011 , which is publicly available on their website. Using this we can look at obesity rates across the United States, and we can see how much obesity rates have changed in each county between 2001 and 2011. We see that between 2001 and 2011, obesity rates decreased in zero counties, stayed the same in zero counties, and increased in 3,143 out of 3,143 counties and county equivalents in the United States.

The smallest increase between 2001 and 2011 was in Eagle County, Colorado, where obesity rates went from 20.0% in 2001 to 21.5% in 2011, an increase of 1.5%. You’ll notice that this is Colorado once again, and it turns out that the five counties with the smallest increase from 2001 to 2011 are all in Colorado. Of the 25 counties with the smallest increase, 13 are in Colorado. The take-home here is that Colorado really is special. 

If we zoom in a little further on these data, we can find ONE case of obesity rates declining — they went from 22.7% in 2009 to 22.4% in 2011 in Fairfax City, Virginia, a drop of 0.3%. There were also two counties where rates stayed the same 2009-2011. But this is one county with rates going down, two staying the same, and 3,140 going up. If population-level reversals are this tiny and this rare, it’s hard to imagine that there is much an individual can do to change their own weight. 

But that said, here are a few ideas, approximately in order from least extreme to most extreme.

First off, there are a few things that won’t change how many contaminants you’re exposed to, but that may have an impact on your weight anyways.

1. — The first is that you can put on more muscle mass. This won’t affect your weight as it appears on the scale, but it does often seem to affect people’s body composition . The lipostat pays attention to how much fat you have, but it also seems to pay some attention to how much you literally weigh (see these studies in mice, and this recent extension in humans ). So if you gain muscle mass, you may lose fat mass. For advice on how to gain muscle mass, please see the internet.

2. — The second is that you could consider getting gastric bypass or a similar, related surgery . Our understanding is that these procedures are very effective at causing weight loss in many cases. However, they are pretty dangerous — this is still a surgical procedure, and so inherently comes with a risk of death and other serious complications. If you consider this option please take it very seriously, consult with your doctor, etc.

Many of you, however, are not just interested in weight loss, or are interested in weight loss along with reducing how many mystery chemicals you’re exposed to — “You stupid kids I don’t want to lose weight I want to get these contaminants out of my body!!!” So here’s a list of steps you could take to reduce your exposure and possibly lose weight, again approximately in order from least extreme to most extreme.

1. — The first thing you should consider is eating more whole foods and/or avoiding highly processed foods. This is pretty standard health advice — we think it’s relevant because it seems pretty clear that food products tend to pick up more contaminants with every step of transportation, packaging, and processing, so eating local, unpackaged, and unprocessed foods should reduce your exposure to most contaminants. 

2. — The second thing you can do is try to eat fewer animal products. Vegetarians and vegans do seem to be slightly leaner than average, but the real reason we recommend this is that we expect many contaminants will bioaccumulate, and so it’s likely that whatever the contaminant, animal products will generally contain more than plants will. So this may not help, but it’s a good bet. 

3. — The third thing is you can think about changing careers and switching to a leaner job. Career is a big source of variance in obesity rates, so if you have a job in a high-obesity profession like truck driver or mechanic, consider switching to a job in a low-obesity profession like teacher or surveyor. For a sense of what careers are high- and low-obesity, check out this paper about obesity by occupation in Washington State and this paper about obesity by occupation in US workers . If you are already in a pretty lean career, then ignore this one.

We think this goes double if you’re in a profession where you’re working with lithium grease directly, or even around lithium grease. Do what you can to stay away from the stuff.

4. — The fourth thing you can consider is changing where you live. The simplest is to change where you live locally — stay in the same area, but move to a different house or apartment. This one is tricky, and sort of a shot in the dark. How will you know if you are moving to a more or less-contaminated house? But if you suspect your house is high in contaminants, it might be worth moving. If you find specific contaminants especially concerning, you can try having your local water tested for them.

5. — A better option is to move to a leaner place altogether. If you’re in the United States, we recommend Colorado. Colorado is the leanest state , has exceptionally pure water sources, individual cities and counties in Colorado are extreme lean outliers , etc. Unbelievably, this comic exists: 

If Colorado doesn’t suit you, you can move to some other state — Hawaii and Massachusetts are not far behind. To find your dream location, look at the CDC’s list of states , or one of the datasets of county-level data like this one or this one , and find a location with a lower rate of obesity than where you currently live. Or pick one of the places from the list of leanest communities in the US . 

6. — This may not be extreme enough . After all, even Colorado is more than 20% obese. So a more radical version of the same idea is moving to a leaner country altogether. 

If you live in the United States, the good news is that most countries are less obese than where you live now, even if you live in Colorado. Especially good choices seem to be Japan, South Korea, and Thailand, but there are many options — for the whole picture, check out the summary from Our World in Data . 

But don’t just take our word for it, listen to these happy customers. Like this person who lost weight over five months in Vietnam , this person who moved to Vietnam and lost 112 pounds in ten months , this person who lost about 4kg (9lbs) after about two months in Japan (and similar stories in the comments) , this person who lost 5lbs on a two-week trip to Japan , or this person who lost 10lbs during a two-week trip to Japan, despite not keeping up with their exercise regimen . Most of these people attribute their weight loss to eating less and walking more, but you’ll also notice that most of them say it was easy to eat less and walk more, and that many of them report being surprised at how much weight they lost and how easily they lost it. 

We’ve also gotten a number of similar stories from commenters on the blog. First up is Julius, who said :

I currently live in Seattle but have moved around a lot. I’ve made 6 separate moves between places where I drank the tap water (mostly USA/UK/Hungary) and places I haven’t (South East Asia, India, Middle East). Whenever I’ve spent significant time in bottled water countries I lost weight (up to 50 lbs), and each time, save one 3 month stretch in Western Europe, I gained it back in tap water countries. I also lost weight for the first time in the States (20 lbs) this year around the time I switched to filtered water.

There’s also a similar story from Ross:

Very thought provoking and well researched piece. How about Japan? Very low rates of obesity. Similar issues with chemical residue. Anecdotally when I moved to Japan from the West I began to lose weight involuntarily, down to a BMI of 22. When I moved back to the West I regained weight. It’s a big rich country with plenty of processed, packaged food.

And a story from Tuck about their daughter:

Yes, my daughter is going to college in Japan. They have the “Freshmen 15 lbs” over there as well, except it’s the 15 lbs the foreigners lose when they go on a Japanese diet. Got a few panicked messages about “not having anything to wear”… LOL

So before you sign up for the gastric bypass, try spending a couple months in a lean country and see how it goes.

The question “what do we do about it” also includes the question “what research comes next?” Here’s what we’re thinking.

Correlational Studies

A lot of people’s first instincts when reading this work is to propose correlational studies. (We don’t necessarily mean a literal correlation, we just mean something that’s not a controlled experiment.) But we think that correlational studies are the wrong way to go at this point.

The first reason is statistical. We covered this in Part IV but it bears repeating. Because most of the modern variation in obesity is genetic, the apparent effect of any contaminant will be quite small, probably no larger than r = 0.50 and maybe a lot smaller. In any study we could run, the range of the variable would probably be restricted, and when the range of a variable is restricted, the correlation always ends up looking smaller than it really is . Some people have proposed we do animal studies for more control — but this is also a bad choice statistically, since the obesity effects in animals seem to be smaller than the effects for humans.

The combination of these problems means that any correlational study would be searching for a pretty small effect, and that means you would need a huge sample size to even have a good chance of finding a potential relationship. So “run a quick correlational study” starts looking like “find a way to fund and organize a study with 1,000 mice”. While we love mice, this seems like an awful lot of them. And even if we have enough statistical power that we have a 90% chance to detect a relationship, that still means we have a 10% chance of missing the relationship altogether. We don’t love those odds. 

Second, A Chemical Hunger already documents a lot of correlational evidence for contaminants in general, and for a few contaminants in particular, especially lithium. If you already find this evidence compelling, it’s hard to imagine that one more piece of correlational evidence will do anything for you. And if you don’t find our review convincing, it’s hard to imagine that another piece of correlational evidence will change your mind.

The contamination theory of obesity has to be possible, in the sense that we know chemicals can cause weight gain and we know various chemicals are in the environment. We hope we’ve also convinced you that it’s plausible. Now we want to figure out, is it true? More correlational evidence isn’t going to get us there.

So overall we recommend going right for the jugular. If this theory is correct, then we have a good shot at doing what we really want to do — actually curing obesity — and no result could be more convincing than that. 

Experiments

So in general, we approve of the idea of doing experiments to just cure obesity straight up.

Normally in public health it’s hard to do this kind of experiment, because it’s unethical to expose people to dangerous chemicals. Back when they were trying to figure out if cigarettes cause cancer, they didn’t do any studies where they assigned people to smoke 3 packs a day. But there’s nothing unethical about removing a contaminant from the environment, so we like that approach. 

We call these experiments, and they are, but in many cases we can actually cheat a little by not bothering to include a control group. People almost never spontaneously stop being obese, so we can just use the general obesity rate in the population as our control group. 

Generally speaking, there are two approaches. “Broad-spectrum” experiments take the overall contaminant theory seriously, and just try to reduce contaminant exposure generally, without committing to any specific contaminant. “Targeted” experiments go after one contaminant in particular, and see if controlling levels of that contaminant alone can lead to weight loss.

These have clear trade-offs. The broad-spectrum experiments are more likely to work and require less experimental control, but if they cure obesity, they don’t tell us what contaminant is responsible (curing obesity would still be pretty cool tho). The targeted experiments are less likely to work because we might go after the wrong contaminant, or we might fuck up our experimental control and let some contamination through — but if they DO work, then we have strong evidence that we’ve found the contaminant that’s responsible.

For all of these studies, the big hurdle is that we don’t know how quickly obesity can be reversed, even under the best circumstances. It might also vary a lot for different people — we have no idea. So if we try any of these experiments, we need to run them for several months at the very least, just to get a good idea of whether or not it’s working. Maybe if we’re lucky we’ll find out you can cure obesity in 2 weeks; but 3 months, 6 months, or even 1 year seems more plausible. 

Below, we propose a few basic ideas for experiments. These aren’t exhaustive — as we do more research, we may come up with new and better ways to try to cure obesity. But they seem like an ok place to start.

Broad-Spectrum Experiments

Slime Mold Time Mold’s Excellent Adventure

The idea is simple. Some places, like Colorado, are pretty lean relative to everywhere else. We think that’s because those places are less contaminated. So we find some people who are obese, and pay for them all to take a year-long vacation to Boulder, Colorado, and see if they lose any weight. 

For better effect, go a step further and send them to one of the leanest countries in the world instead. Vietnam seems to be the leanest country in the world right now, at only about 2% obese, and rent is pretty cheap there, so that would be a good option. If you want to stay in heavily industrialized nations, Japan is a good alternative; if you want to stay in the English-speaking world, maybe the Philippines. There are lots of good places to choose from.

For full effect, you would want your participants to eat the local food and drink the local water as much as possible. If they’re eating American food and drinking American beer, then you’re right back where you started.

(If you know of any study abroad or similar programs that we could piggyback on, please let us know !)

Throw Water Filters at the Problem and See What Happens

This is a broad-spectrum version of a targeted idea, below. The basic idea is simple. Contaminants might be in the water supply; filters get lots of stuff out of water; people drink water. So in this study, we find a bunch of people who are overweight or obese, send them the strongest/best water filters we can afford, and see if they lose any weight over the next several months. 

For even more effect, send the filters to people who live in the most obese states, or even target some of the most obese communities directly.

This really is not a precision instrument — filters don’t get everything out of water, and water might not even be your main source of contaminants. Maybe your food or your carpets are the bigger problem. But if losing weight were as simple as throwing a water filter at the problem, that would be pretty exciting, and we would want to know.

Targeted Experiments

Right now lithium is our top suspect, so we’re using lithium as our go-to example in all of these experiments. But if it turns out that lithium isn’t a good match, any of these experiments could be retrofitted to target some other contaminant instead. 

To use a targeted approach, we need to be able to figure out how much exposure people are getting, and we need to know what we can do to reduce that exposure. So there are a few pre-experiment projects we need to do first.

To begin with, we need to figure out which water filters (if any!) remove lithium from drinking water. If we can find a filter that works, this will let us make sure any water source is lithium-free.

In addition, we’re worried that lithium might accumulate in food , so we need to do another study where we look at as many different types of food as we can and try to figure out if there are high levels of lithium in any of the stuff we’re all eating. Without this, any study will be hopelessly complicated because we won’t be able to control for the lithium in your food. But if we figure out what crops (if any) are concentrating lithium, maybe we can figure out a way to feed people a low-lithium diet.

Targeted Water Filters

Assuming we can find a water filter that does the job, we could do a pretty straightforward study where we send people a water filter that takes lithium out of their water, and see if they lose weight over a couple months.

For maximum effect, we would also want to make sure they weren’t getting any lithium from their food, which is why we want to do a study on how much lithium is in the food supply. It’s not clear how easy this would be — we might have to curate food sources and provide people with all their meals as well, which would make this study a hundred times more complicated.

There are a couple other things we could do to improve this study. We could focus on sending water filters to people in the most obese parts of the country, or to places where we already know the water is contaminated with lithium.

We could test the amount of lithium in people’s blood, urine, and/or saliva as they use the filter, see if it goes down, and see if the decrease in lithium in their body tracks on to weight loss. Assuming people did lose weight, this would be important because it might help us figure out more about the mechanism of lithium leaving the body. Some people will probably clear lithium faster than others, and if lithium causes obesity, we would want to be able to figure out how to help people clear it from their body as fast as possible. 

We could also do a slightly bigger study, where we go to one of the fattest places in the US and install a bunch of whole-home water filtration systems for a couple randomly selected families who are overweight or obese. This would be more expensive but it would have some perks. If it turns out that showering in lithium-tainted water is really the active ingredient, and not just drinking it, then a whole-home water filtration system would take care of that. 

There’s also a small chance that there’s just no filter on the market that can get lithium out of drinking water. Or maybe distillation works, but the cost is prohibitive for a whole-home system. In that case, we could rent a few water tanker trucks, fill them with water we know is low in lithium (we’ll import it from Colorado if we have to!), and take them to a cul-de-sac in one of the most obese communities in the US. If we can find a neighborhood who’d sign up for this, we could switch their houses’ water supplies over to our tanker trucks for a few months, bringing in new water as needed, and see if that did anything for their health. 

Amish Obesity

This piece from the LA Times is pretty bad, but it tells an interesting story. In part of Ontario, Canada, a group of Old Order Amish have “stunningly low obesity levels, despite a diet high in fat, calories and refined sugar.” The figure they quote is an obesity rate of only 4%. But about 200 miles south, the Amish in Holmes County, Ohio have obesity rates similar to the rest of the population, closer to 30% obese.

These two groups should be genetically similar. Both groups grow most of their own food. Both of them have pretty similar lifestyles — despite what the LA Times piece and this related article say, even if “only” 40% of the Amish in Ohio do hard farm labor, their lives are still more like the Amish in Ontario than the non-Amish in Holmes Country. 

This makes them almost a perfect comparison. Why are the Amish in Ohio so much more obese than the Amish in Ontario? If the contamination hypothesis is correct, then we should be able to look at the local environments of these two communities and find more contamination (of one sort or another) in Ohio than in Ontario. 

Because both groups grow most of their own food (we think?), we don’t need to worry about the influence of food imported from elsewhere — whatever contaminants are in their water will also be in their plants, and they won’t be bringing in contaminated food from outside. This makes this situation a much more controlled environment to study our hypothesis.

If lithium is the contaminant that causes obesity, we might expect to see deeper wells in Ohio than in Ontario. Information about the Amish is hard to find on the internet, for obvious reasons, but we have found some information that suggests that the Amish in America do use drilled wells , some of which may be relatively recent . We can’t find anything about the wells used by the Amish in Ontario — but it would be interesting if they were still using older, shallower wells for their water.

Another thing we might expect to see, if lithium is to blame, is evidence of some kind of fossil fuel activity in Ohio and not in Ontario. Well, in our last post we did review evidence for fossil fuel contamination in a number of places in Ohio . And when we were looking for documentation on water wells in Amish Ohio, we came across articles like Fracking on Amish Land (in Ohio), Energy Companies Take Advantage of the Amish Prohibition on Lawsuits (in Ohio), this excerpt about natural gas wells (in Pennsylvania), and Tradition, temptation as Amish debate fracking (in Pennsylvania, but mostly in Ohio). 

Ontario has its own problems, including thousands of abandoned gas wells , but very few of them appear to be on Amish land. Zoom in on the towns of Milverton, Millbank, Newton, Linwood, and Atwood on that map, and you’ll see that there are almost no petroleum wells around these Amish communities. And unlike in Ohio, we haven’t found any news stories about recent drilling or fracking on Amish land in Ontario. 

Or we could just go test the water. It’s a simple question, how much lithium is in the water in each place, and testing for other contaminants might not be a bad idea either. If we find similar levels of lithium in both places, and there are no complicating factors like imported food, that would be a strike against lithium as an explanation. But if there’s more lithium in the food and water in Ohio than in Ontario, that would be quite a mark in favor of the lithium hypothesis. Assuming they were interested, we could then work with the Amish in Ohio to try to get the lithium (or whatever) out of their water, and see if that reduced their rates of obesity. 

We don’t expect that we have many Amish readers, but if you know of a good way to get in contact with the Amish in either of these locations, we’d be interested in talking to them!  

Research Advising

There are also a few ideas we have that we won’t be pursuing ourselves, but if someone else (or a small team) wants to go after them, we would be happy to advise.

Taking lithium out of the water supply as a whole would be pretty hard, so it’s not usually an option. But it might be an option for countries that get most of their drinking water from desalination . You could run this as an experiment — one desalination plant uses lithium-free brine while another continues with the normal procedure — but you wouldn’t have to. In this case, there’s no need for a control group. If Saudi Arabia or Kuwait changed their desalination process so that no lithium ended up in their water, and saw their obesity rate fall 10% over the next five years, that would be evidence enough. Or you could do a version of this study with some other relevant group, e.g. seafarers drinking desalinated water as suggested by commenter ugoglen . So if anyone is able to do something like this, we would be interested in being involved.

In our post on PFAS , we did a small amount of regression modeling using data from The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and found evidence of a relationship between BMI and certain PFAS in the data for 1999-200, 2003-2004, and 2005-2006. This finding is very suggestive, but we only tested some very simple models, and we only looked at three of the datasets that are available. We think that a bigger analysis could be very illuminating, but model fitting isn’t our specialty. We would love to work with a data scientist or statistician with more model fitting experience, however, to conduct a more complete analysis. So if you have those skills and you’re interested, please let us know ! 

We’re still pretty interested in the all-potato diet . So far all we have are anecdotes, but the anecdotes are pretty compelling. Chris Voigt famously vowed to eat nothing but 20 plain potatoes (and a small amount of cooking oil) and lost 21 pounds over 60 days, without feeling very hungry. There’s also Andrew Taylor of Australia, who lost 114 lbs over a year of eating nothing but potatoes and reports feeling “totally amazing”. Last we heard he’s still doing pretty well . Magician Penn Jillette lost over 100 lbs using a strategy that started with two weeks of a potato-only diet (h/t reader pie_flavor), and seems to be keeping it off . This also inspired at least one copycat attempt from a couple who have jointly lost over 220 lbs starting with two weeks of an all-potato diet .

There’s also this comment from u/DovesOfWar on reddit:

To complement the potatoes anecdote, at some point to save money and time I ate almost nothing but potatoes, onions and butter and I lost like 60 pounds. I stopped because everyone thought I was starving (despite not being hungry) and I chugged it off to extreme lazyness/depression (despite not being sad) so I stopped doing that and never connected it to my diet, but what I should have done is write a fad book on the diet and solve the money problem that way. I’m back to a normal healthy 29 BMI now and still relatively poor, so I see I interpreted the experiment completely wrong and now my life sucks.

Based on those examples, you can see why we’re interested. It seems pretty low-cost (potatoes are cheap) and low-risk (if you feel bad, you can stop eating potatoes). If someone wants to organize a potato-centered weight-loss study, or if people just want to get together and try it for themselves, we’d be happy to advise. You can coordinate on the subreddit u/pondgrass set up over at r/spudbud if you like, though so far there doesn’t seem to be much activity.

We’re also interested in the effect of alkali metal ions, especially potassium . Lithium, currently our prime suspect, is an alkali metal ion that appears to affect the brain. Other alkali metal ions like sodium and potassium also play an important role in the brain, and there’s evidence that these ions may compete with each other , or at least interact , in interesting ways (see also here , here , and here ). If lithium causes obesity, it may do so by messing with sodium or potassium signaling (or maybe calcium ) in the brain, so changing the amount of these ions you consume, or their ratios, might help stop it. 

This is supported by some hints that potassium consumption is related to successful weight loss . Potatoes are high in potassium, so if the all-potato diet really does work, that might be part of the mechanism.

You can easily get sodium from table salt, and you can get potassium from potassium salts like this one or this one . We’ve tried them, and we find them a little gross, but to some people they taste just like regular salt. If that’s no good, there are always dietary sources like potatoes.

So trying various forms of alkali-metal diets — high-K+, high-K+/low-Na+, high-K+/high-Na+, high-K+/low-Ca2+, etc. — seems pretty easy and might prove interesting. As before, if someone wants to organize a community study around this angle, or if people want to try it for themselves, we’d be happy to advise. These salts are pretty safe, and not prescription medications, but they’re not quite as basic as potatoes — before you try seriously changing your sodium or potassium intake, please talk with your doctor.

Also, how about lithium grease ? These greases are basically the perfect slow-release form of lithium, which make them kind of concerning. Mechanics work with lithium grease and are relatively obese. But there are alternative kinds of greases that don’t use lithium, and sometimes companies intentionally switch what kind of grease they use. If a company switched out lithium grease for some other grease in one of their factories, we could compare the weights of workers at that factory to workers at other factories, and see if there was any weight loss over the next few years. And what happens when mechanics who use lithium grease every day switch to a new job? What happens if they get promoted to a desk job? What happens when they retire? If you know a group of mechanics or some other group that works with lithium grease and might be interested, please let us know !

We’re also interested in advising original ideas . We love it when you send us ideas we never would have come up with ourselves. So if you have some great idea — a review of a contaminant we didn’t cover, another idea for a related study, relevant anecdotes that might inspire something, etc. — let us know . If we like it, we’ll do what we can to help — advise you, promote it, try to help you get funding, whatever.

This is the end of A Chemical Hunger . We will still write more about obesity, and probably more about contamination, but this is the end of the series. Thank you for reading, commenting, sharing, contributing, questioning, challenging, and yes, even disputing! We’ve learned a lot from your comments and questions — and we hope you’ve learned something from reading!

Even if you still don’t find our hypothesis convincing, thank you for reading the series all the way to the end! We think it’s great that you were willing to give our wacky idea the time of day. This kind of exploration is essential, even if some of the theories turn out to be a little silly. And even if our theory is totally wrong, someday someone will figure out the answer to this thing, and we’ll send the global obesity rate back down to 2%.

As we mentioned, we want to conduct some research to follow up on the book-length literature review you just finished reading. Our near-term goal is to better understand how people get exposed to contaminants, especially lithium, so we can give advice on how to avoid exposure. Our medium-term goal is to figure out what causes obesity, probably by trying to cure it in a sample population. Our long-term goal is to try to cure it everywhere. That would be pretty cool.

If you’re interested in supporting this research, you can become a patron on patreon , or contact us if you want to help fund a larger project.

In conclusion: Be excellent to each other. Party on, dudes.

Type your email…

Share this:

56 thoughts on “ a chemical hunger – part x: what to do about it ”.

Thank you for this. I remember commenting earlier and thinking lithium and PFAS seem to be the strongest possibilities. This is interesting especially as we have proposed ways of falsifying the lithium/PFAS hypotheses. My takeaway is use my filter even if its a little cumbersome and get an RO filter once I can. It is also pretty alarming how hard it is to lose weight and maintain weight loss….ive lost about 40ish lbs and have another 15ish to go but I’m guessing I’ll need to try extra hard and maintain extra caution as I proceed.

Lastly I really dislike how this got basically bood off the slate star codex reddit with some people jumping to impugning motives or just being unnecessarily mean.

ISTR that low lithium can cause emotional disregulation and suicide. There’s probably a happy middle, but be careful about throwing maximally-strong anti-lithium filters at people.

Good point!

Thank you for the fantastic series. I really enjoyed how thorough and honest you were in your investigations. During the summer, someone on Lesswrong shared a pdf of a draft of this series, which is what I first read, which lead me to this blog. Do you have this series as a single document? I would love to have this in my personal archive of literature.

Regarding water filters, there must be plenty of natural experiments like this that can be studied:

https://eu.patriotledger.com/story/news/2021/09/17/hanover-tries-switching-carbon-filters-combat-pfas-water-contamination-gac/8319363002/

Maybe I said this before, but if you want to compare how obesogenic different environments are I think you should compare ethnicity to ethnicity. For example, in the US in 2004-2006 the age-adjusted obesity rate in the US for whites was 23.6%, but the obesity rate for Japanese was only 8.7% and for Vietnamese only 5.3%.

https://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/omh/browse.aspx?lvl=4&lvlid=55

Interesting study:

“After adjusting for other factors, compared to Whites, being Hispanic and Blacks were associated with higher odds of obesity (OR = 1.47, 95%CI = 1.31–1.65; OR = 2.04, 95%CI = 1.65–2.53, respectively); being Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese were associated with lower odds of obesity (OR = 0.28, 95%CI = 0.18–0.45; OR = 0.14, 95%CI = 0.04–0.46; OR = 0.28, 95%CI = 0.14–0.58, respectively). Compared to Chinese, being Japanese and Filipino were associated with higher odds of obesity (OR = 2.75, 95%CI = 1.52–4.95; OR = 2.90, 95%CI = 1.87–4.49, respectively).”

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-021-11612-z

Wow, nice! Yeah we’ll look into this one!

Thank you for this series! I have a not much related question, but since you’ve studied the topic you probably know something about it. What’s up with the few people in every population who go through deliberate weight loss and then actually keep it off? They make up about 5% of all “weight watchers”. That’s enough people that everyone knows at least some of them.

At first I thought that perhaps by starting the diet they gave up some specific food that contains a lot of the guilty contaminant, but looking at the two closest examples I have, one of them gave up most of the butter, milk and sausages, the other one gave up sugar and starch but keeps eating processed meat, so they don’t overlap at all.

My earlier hypothesis was that these people have a really strong will and grit allowing them force themselves to eat less food against their own preferences (which would also cause some of the genetic weight differences since grit is highly heritable). But again, it doesn’t fit observations. At least one of these people doesn’t seem to have enough grit to do unpleasant work always on time and actually identifies with the low-willpower personality type; and none of them say their new eating habit causes them high suffering that you would expect from a person who works against their lipostat by raw willpower.

So what’s their secret?

Glad you enjoyed it!

This is a good question, and we suspect that this 5% comes from multiple places. There probably are a small number of people who can keep weight off by willpower + social support alone, even though it’s impossible for most people. Other people might reduce their contaminant exposure by moving, changing jobs, changing hobbies, etc. Some people will also develop a medical condition, get a brain tumor, side effect of a prescription medication, start smoking, start a cocaine habit, etc. Biological/medical reasons to drop weight are rare, but when you add them all up, it might be close to 5%.

And we think you’re right, some people do give up a food that contains the contaminant. The important thing to keep in mind is that the same food won’t always have the same amount of contamination. So milk from one farm might be high in contaminants, while milk from another farm is low in contaminants. This means you can’t expect a reliable pattern based on what people gave up, which is part of why diet studies are so confusing.

Seriously, I counted macros and exercised and lost 50 lb and kept it off. I trained a fitness coach to encourage others to do the same. Until I read this I thought my weight loss was due to my diligence and discipline. Now I’m remembering that I happened to be transitioning off of prescription lithium at the same time, and I am wondering if my whole life is based on a lie… Great article though!😂🤷🤦‍♀️ But, if lithium is the proposed mechanism for this, why are we seeing a concurrent epidemic of depression? I can attest that lithium is an excellent antidepressant, even if you aren’t bipolar. At very least, wouldn’t you expect to see similar geographical trends in mental illness morbidity to the obesity morbidity?

Thanks for the series! Really loves it, and very interesting theory 🙂

Reading this sentence at the end, “And even if our theory is totally wrong, someday someone will figure out the answer to this thing, and we’ll send the global obesity rate back down to 2%.”, made me realize something: what is “obesity”? Obviously we should make sure that our food and drinking water isn’t contaminated with substances that might be having negative effects on our endocrine and nervous systems. But beyond “morbid obesity”, is being “overweight” that harmful? Is BMI even a useful tool?

[…] has another installment in their series on the epidemic of obesity, and this one deals with what can be done. They do recommend a whole-food plant-based diet (and I […]

I’ve followed the whole series and really enjoyed it! But my memory is unfortunately, lousy. Did you address the possibility that substantial weight gain may be a one-way transformation in many cases, due to essentially permanent changes in control systems? (Trying not to be lazy, so I did try a few searches before writing this.) From the above post it seems like you would bet against it, but for whatever reason, it’s something I’ve always assumed. If it turns out to be true, it would of course be much more difficult to figure out if an environmental contaminant is the cause.

This is a great question. We’re optimistic about reversals because in rare cases people do lose incredible amounts of weight and keep it off. There are plenty of anecdotes of this happening, and in this post we quote a couple of cases where weight loss happened quite rapidly when people tried a drastic diet or spent time in another country. Taken together, that makes us think that at least in some cases people who are no longer exposed to contaminants will drop large amounts of weight.

This may not happen for everyone, though — we expect major differences in how fast people lose weight, even if we can remove all contamination. For example, let’s imagine (for the sake of argument) that lithium normally leaves the body very slowly, unless you take high doses of potassium, which (again just hypothetically) forces it out of the brain. Then you might only see weight loss in the rare cases where someone was both no longer exposed to lithium AND started consuming a decent amount of potassium.

regarding the potassium thing, could I accomplish this with say a potassium gluconate supplement from Amazon? Thanks again, this whole series has been fantastic, and the first thing I’ve ever contributed to on patreon.

I certainly hope you don’t stop here. You really have the most significant weight-loss/gain hypothesis in decades. Don’t stop here!

I did notice a science article today on Lithium selective filters. Might be useful. https://www.pnas.org/content/118/37/e2022197118

Just FYI while there is a lot of fracking in Pennsylvania, due to tougher state regulations on disposal, almost all of the wastewater generated by that fracking is disposed of across the border in Ohio. (Interestingly that’s the reason for a cluster of induced earthquakes in Youngstown, Ohio — wastewater injection is known to cause earthquakes.)

Very interesting! Maybe this is part of why Pennsylvania is relatively lean even with so much fossil fuel activity!

What is your opinion on Zinc?

I’m having some success (-10lbs) with running in a sauna suit. I sweat more and lithium is water soluble so it fits the thesis The adrenaline also makes minor aches and pains disappear, making the experience less miserable overall than cold runing. The only other change I’ve made is snacking on high salt, shell-on sunflower seeds when I’m bored/stressed.

Something I noticed: If I add more salt to my food I’m quicker “full”

Your series, and particularly the part on low-dose antibiotics and gut microbiota, made me spend a lot of time researching gut bacteria and their effect on obesity. Along the way I learned of some relatively new results showing that Akkermansia Muciniphilia strains in particular produce a protein (in fact several proteins) that regulate obesity, insulin response and seem correlated with the thickness of the intestinal lining (with other implications) [0]. At the same time, the modern high-fat/high-carb western diet seems to reduce Akkermansia abundance significantly (by up to 99% in mice) for reasons that aren’t well understood. I’m curious if there is any real empirical way to explore the effect of these chemicals on the gut microbiome, rather than just looking at the end-results (weight etc.) or even better — if anyone has done some of this work. (I can’t find much for the chemicals you mention in this series.)

In a similar vein, I have been curious about emulsifiers and preservatives in food. In particular, I know that emulsifiers have an effect on gut lining and bacteria.

Likewise, I have been interested in the pro-biotic properties of fermented food. In fact, I make my own fermented hot sauce. Fermented foods can help with microbiota deficiencies by supplying new bacteria, though not the whole spectrum we need.

Thinking about the concept of “send people from westernized countries to live for a period in a different country,” there might be some interesting natural experiments. I’m thinking particularly of say, the Peace Corps. In doing some googling, I’ve seen it asserted a lot that the rule of thumb is that, within the first months of living in the site country, men tend to lose weight and women tend to gain weight, which is, er, something. https://www.reddit.com/r/peacecorps/comments/51gx08/how_much_weight_did_you_gainlose_during_service/ ; https://www.reddit.com/r/peacecorps/comments/8b6wlx/weight_loss_during_service/

I have some purely anecdotal evidence that supports that finding. I’m from the UK and worked in a remote part of Madagascar for a year on the coast. Foreign volunteers, mostly white, mostly native English speakers stayed with us for 6 week stints. A small range of edible plants was grown locally. White rice was imported. Baguettes were brought once every few days from the nearest town. The protein-rich foods, most common first, were fish, beans, and very lean domestic animal meat. People were divided on what water they would drink. Those of us who hated plastic waste religiously used the ceramic-filtered ground water, which was saltier than we were used to. Others would only drink bottled water. We kept observing that women put on weight and men lost weight.

I got very, very skinny. If we had eaten a dish that left any fat then I dumped a lot of white rice on the empty serving dishes and stirred it up to get all the fat.

Like Liked by 1 person

Were you one of the ones drinking bottled water or one of the ones deinkinf ceramically filtered water? 🙂

Filtered. So was my girlfriend who put weight on.

This was a really great series that I hope you guys turn into a book someday. Your lithium explanation makes more sense than high carbs and seed oil causing obesity claims. Perhaps another way of checking could be to look at rates of people with liver damage in certain regions. Long term exposure to high levels of lithium can damage your liver. My best friend is bipolar and took lithium for years and now has minor but permanent liver damage.

I enjoyed your early posts. I’m not at all sure that Lithium is the answer. I’m thinking some sort of plastic, but whatever, I think looking for some bio-chemical thing is a good idea. Don’t get stuck on one solution. When trouble-shooting, you need to keep your mind open to any and all ideas. I also want to repeat two ‘facts’ (at least pieces of data) There seems to be both a gender and class split in obesity. Poor women are fat and poor men are thin, while rich women are thin and rich men are fat. I’m not sure what this is about but I see it everywhere, and of course you can find counter examples to all the cases. Colorado is special in a few ways: Highest state, so could be air pressure or solar radiation or something else that changes with height. (oh I was going to say cleanest water, but this goes along with height.) It also has the large population of white yuppies, who are all thin, from what I’ve observed… Is it a self selected group? Oh I really like the occupation and obesity links. And for a single data point will observe, that I’ve moved from an engineering job, sitting on my ass all day. To working as a prep cook (for much less money) and am very happy with my weight loss… no more man boobs. :^)

Oh, is part of obesity the jobs we are doing?

If you run an experiment with a weird diet (e.g. just potatoes) then you will need some other weird-diet control to adjust for malnutrition. What if eating only potatoes (or eliminating gluten from your diet, or all meat/animal products or whatever broad thing you might imagine) causes reduction in obesity because hey, it’s hard to get all your nutrients and you mildly starve yourself? Or it’s just an unusual diet so your subject struggles to plan meals and can no longer access easy takeout options?

Tens of thousands of college students from around the world go and spend semesters studying abroad. Maybe just ask them what their weight is before they leave and after they get back? Easy, low-cost causative data that could probably even be done retrospectively.

Yes! If anyone knows of a source we could use to do this retrospectively, we’d love to hear about it. If not, we’re thinking of trying to put together a project where we essentially ask a bunch of American expats the same thing.

This is just an anecdote but the most interesting weight-related experience I’ve ever had was while studying abroad in France 10 years ago! I lost a significant amount of weight after living there for just four months. I never weighed myself at the time but I look strikingly different in pictures from the end of my semester abroad so it must have been at least 15-20lbs (I am short). I ate a virtually unlimited amount of bread, cheese, meat, and dessert every day. I drank wine constantly. I even ate McDonald’s more often than I had back home because it was the only place open for late night drunk food. I did walk a lot while living in Paris but I went to college in a large US city and I didn’t own a car so that was not actually a change from my usual lifestyle. I did not deliberately exercise one single time while I was in France. The only major change seemed to be a reduction in the amount of highly processed foods I was consuming, plus presumably a change in environmental exposure to whatever was in the water supply. I gained the weight back pretty quickly after returning home and any time I’ve tried to re-create those circumstances by avoiding processed foods it has failed to produce the same results…it never once occurred to me that the real difference might have been the water!

You should definitely try to find some data from American students or expats!! I can’t have been the only one to have had this kind of experience. Time to go buy some water filters I guess…

Someone commenting above mentions the Pease Corps. Would that be a good fit?

Potentially! Do you know someone in the Peace Corps?

Unfortunately not. I’m in the UK. The last time I met someone in the Peace Corps was in Madagascar in 2008.

Arizona is discussing running desalinated water from the Pacific for its rapidly growing cities around Phoenix. Assuming the Lithium Hypothesis, is there a way we can A) make the result low-lithium, instead of high-lithium like certain Middle Eastern countries? B) provide evidence of the Lithium Hypothsis C) do it cheaply, so skeptics don’t derail this.

Desalinated water needs ions added back in, so it doesn’t leach them from our own bodies. a) What ions are the most important? b) What is the easiest (low-lithium) way to get them?

This gives us the possibility of a real win-win situation for Arizona, and evidence/proof for us. How can we do this better ?

Not sure (we’re looking into some of this) but a good start would be for them to at least test the water before and after for lithium.

Regarding identifying water ions to blame: One can buy regular deionized water system (reverse osmosis + ion-exchange resin filters), and introduce exact salts you want to see there or even have them as food supplement separately from water (in tablet/capsule form). Maybe going all the way to deionized water is too far, and plain reverse osmosis system is good enough – these are getting very cheap (<1000$).

Fortunately, lithium grease is getting out of favor, and often can be replaced to synthetic grease with PTFE particles with same or better performance: https://www.super-lube.com/multi-purpose-synthetic-grease-with-syncolon-ptfe

Interesting! 🙂

I’m interested in eating only potatoes for 30 days. It seems interesting because I’ve wondered about the environmental factors on weight for a couple of years and I like data. What information would be helpful to measure and track? Can any spices be used? I’m also not sure if cooking oil is allowed. For water, I use an NSF 53 filter, but I have never found a good way to measure what’s in my water to see if the claims are accurate. Is there a way to test lithium/chemical content in water? Does it matter if we think that food is the bigger source of the contaminant? Crosspost from https://www.reddit.com/r/spudbud/comments/ok13s8/rspudbud_lounge/

>but if you know of a good way to get in contact with the Amish in either of these locations Write them a letter. Seriously. They like letters. Send it to the bishop, or a random house, or even to the local postmaster with a request to deliver it to someone in the Amish community. They’re friendly. They’ll answer your questions about their water and food sources. You could even ask them to send you water samples.

[…] I was surprised to see that they are the ones running this, since they are best known for the “Chemical Hunger” series arguing that the obesity epidemic is largely driven by environmental contaminants like Lithium. The conclusion of that series noted: […]

Have you done any research on the best possible filtration systems to remove as much lithium as possible from drinking water? It seems like there’s a lot of options out there and hard to tell what is most effective.

Yes, we are currently working on it! Results will be out in a little while, we’re nearing the end stages

Oh awesome! Yeah I would also be happy to participate in a study if you all are close to that point that you mentioned in the article.

Did you look at bromine at all? It’s pervasive as a fire retardant and could easily be related to occupational exposure.

Interesting series.

Onset of puberty has also gone down in industrialized nations in the past 150 years or so, and I know some researchers have suggested exposure to pollutants as a possible cause. This may have a complicated relationship with weight – high weight causing earlier onset of puberty? earlier onset of puberty causing high weight? exposure to pollutants causing either? All of the above, simultaneously? Absolutely none of the above, and this comment is useless?

I’m not suggesting anything I just said is true – I haven’t done the full research yet, and there’s a lot of weird social issues about this (many people are weirded out by 10 year olds with boobs), which may help amplify scarier-sounding viewpoints. It’s just worth looking into.

Not sold on the potato diet or any of the other solutions, though. If even the Amish are affected, then individual choices aren’t going to be particularly impactful… Though potatoes are delicious!

Or, and here’s an idea: Just order blood testing for a group of individuals and see if lithium content correlates with obesity?

Seems far, far more simple than any of the above research designs. Otherwise, throwing filters on the water seems effective.

The moving people to other places is a very bad methodology because far too many confounding variables

Nice series though!

Regarding the meat diet, have you checked the fish diet from a production using aquaponics?

Besides some fish meet nutritional needs at a low climate impact, it will be interesting to see if this provides a good option free of PFOAs and lithium for those ethical meat eaters like myself?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00516-4 https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/4/4199

I have a mutation in uncoupling protein 4 (UCP4) which keeps my metabolism in emergency overdrive. As I write, I’m in shorts only while my wife is rugged up. I enjoyed my year working in North Greenland, even at -40! Recently I was in hospital for extensive surgery and IV fed until I had gained 10kg. Back at home I’m shedding 2 kg per month without doing anything different from before. A few more months should see my weight return to its previous normal.

That’s crazy!

Hope things go well.

What about fertilizers? There has been a massive increase in fertilizer, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_fertilizer , as well as changes in the types of fertilizers. For potassium, there has been a shift to potassium silicate fertilizers since the 1980s. Also, Regular K fertilizer is only 60% K, the rest contains plenty of other trace elements (Li?), that might not even be tracked. It might be worthwhile to find someone who knows about the fertilizer industry and changes that might have happened in the last century.

I remember reading that the mineral content in food is way off as many of the values were determined in the 50s before changes in fertilizer usage happened. K intake is supposedly much higher today than it was in the past, but we are still using old nutrition tables. Not sure whether this is true, and I don’t remember the source. Maybe someone else knows more?

Thank you for this great series.

Leave a comment Cancel reply

• Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
• Subscribe Subscribed
• Copy shortlink
• Report this content
• View post in Reader
• Manage subscriptions
• Collapse this bar

Chemical Engineering : Theses and Dissertations

• Chemical Engineering Databases
• Handbooks and Encyclopedias
• Plant Design and Cost Index
• Theses and Dissertations
• Patents and Trademarks
• Technical Reports
• KiltHub Repository This link opens in a new window

About Theses and Dissertations

A dissertation or thesis is a document submitted in support of candidature for a degree or professional qualification presenting the author's research and findings.  (International Standard ISO 7144: Documentation — Presentation of theses and similar documents ).

For most universities in the U.S., dissertation is the term for the required submission for the PhD, and thesis refers only to the master's degree requirement.

Carnegie Mellon University

Carnegie Mellon theses are now ONLINE and can be searched through the ProQuest database Dissertations & Theses @ Carnegie Mellon University that enables access to citations and abstracts of all dissertations and theses, as well as the full text in PDF format.  Scroll down and select Dissertations & Theses, then do a regular search. Print versions are also available in the libraries' collection.

PRIMO ,  the Carnegie Mellon Library catalog, uses the term THESIS to denote both masters' theses and dissertations.  However, the number of master's theses is limited.  Within the libraries, theses are located in designated areas and are shelved in alphabetical order by the author's last name.  The catalog treats theses and dissertations like books, and they can be borrowed as such. Theses may be in print, microfiche, or microform.

• In catalog use the Advanced Search :  search by author, title, or keyword limiting to type THESIS.
• For a list of theses from a specific department, use Advanced Search to combine a keyword search for the name of the department with location THESES.  E.g., search for "Dept. of Computer Science" with THESES as the location.
• For a complete list of theses at Carnegie Mellon, use Advanced Search to search Carnegie Mellon University Dissertations in the Subject line.  

Other Universities

T he best source to find theses is ProQuest Dissertations & Thesis Global .  Policies regarding theses and dissertation collections largely vary between universities.  So check the library website of the university of interest.

Other Countries

Center for Research Libraries:  Foreign Doctoral Dissertations CRL has more than 800,000 cataloged foreign doctoral dissertations from more than 90 countries and over 1200 institutions.

• << Previous: Plant Design and Cost Index
• Next: Patents and Trademarks >>
• Last Updated: Aug 10, 2024 1:19 AM
• URL: https://guides.library.cmu.edu/ChemE

• USF Research
• USF Libraries

Digital Commons @ USF > College of Arts and Sciences > Chemistry > Theses and Dissertations

Chemistry Theses and Dissertations

Theses/dissertations from 2024 2024.

Effects of Diminazene Aceturate on Drosophila melanogaster : A Lipidomic Analysis , Gabriela Suarez

Introductory Chemistry Student Success: Evaluating Peer-Led Team Learning and Describing Sense of Belonging , Jessica D. Young

Explorations on Non-Covalent Interactions: From Supramolecules to Drug-Like Molecules , Zhanpeng Zhang

Theses/Dissertations from 2023 2023

aPKCs role in Neuroblastoma cell signaling cascades and Implications of aPKCs inhibitors as potential therapeutics , Sloan Breedy

Protein Folding Kinetics Analysis Using Fluorescence Spectroscopy , Dhanya Dhananjayan

Affordances and Limitations of Molecular Representations in General and Organic Chemistry , Ayesha Farheen

Institutional and Individual Approaches to Change in Undergraduate STEM Education: Two Framework Analyses , Stephanie B. Feola

Applications in Opioid Analysis with FAIMS Through Control of Vapor Phase Solvent Modifiers , Nathan Grimes

Synthesis, Characterization, and Separation of Loaded Liposomes for Drug Delivery , Sandra Khalife

Supramolecular Architectures Generated by Self-assembly of Guanosine and Isoguanosine Derivatives , Mengjia Liu

Syntheses, Photophysics, & Application of Porphyrinic Metal-Organic Frameworks , Zachary L. Magnuson

Integration of Algae and Biomass Processes to Synthesize Renewable Bioproducts for the Circular Economy , Jessica Martin

Considerations for curricular reform in undergraduate chemistry: Cooperative adoption factors, modeling social influence, and focusing on specific populations , Jacob D. McAlpin

Chemical Analysis of Metabolites from Mangrove Endophytic Fungus , Sefat E Munjerin

Synthesis of Small Molecule Modulators of Non-Traditional Drug Targets , Jamie Nunziata

Conformational Dynamics and Free Energy Studies of DNA and Other Biomolecules , Paul B. Orndorff

Synthetic Studies of Potential New Ketogenic Molecules , Mohammad Nazmus Sakib

Coupling Chemical and Genomic Data of Marine Sediment-Associated Bacteria for Metabolite Profiling , Stephanie P. Suarez

Enhanced Methods in Forensic Mass Spectrometry for Targeted and Untargeted Drug Analysis , Dina M. Swanson

Investigation of Challenging Transformations in Gold Catalysis , Qi Tang

Diazirines and Oxaziridines as Nitrogen Transfer Reagents in Drug Discovery , Khalilia C. Tillett

Developing New Strategy toward Ruthenium and Gold Redox Catalysis , Chenhuan Wang

Gold-Catalyzed Diyne-ene Cyclization: Synthesis of Hetero Polyaromatic Hydrocarbons and 1,2-Dihydropyridines , Jingwen Wei

Development of Antiviral Peptidomimetics , Songyi Xue

Self-Assembly of Metallo-Supramolecules Based on Terpyridine and its Derivatives , Yu Yan

Theses/Dissertations from 2022 2022

Synthesis and Antibacterial Testing of Novel Thiosulfonate Compounds , Lindsay I. Blume

Investigating a Potential STING Modulator , Jaret J. Crews

Development of Lipidated Antimicrobial Polycarbonates , Ruixuan Gao

Exploring the Structure and Activity of Metallo-Tetracyclines , Shahedul Islam

Large Area Projection Sintering of Semicrystalline Polymers and Part Analysis of the Printed Specimens , Taranjot Kaur

Interfacing Computational Techniques with Synthetic and Spectroscopic Methods for Research and Education , Nicole Annette Miller

An Investigation into the Protein Dynamics and Proton Transfer Mechanism of Class-A β-lactamase (CTX-Ms) by NMR Spectroscopy , Radwan Ebna Noor

Effects of acid hydrolyzed chitosan derivatives on MHV infection , Krishna Sharma

Metabolomic Analysis, Identification and Antimicrobial Assay of Two Mangrove Endophytes , Stephen Thompson

Advanced Analytical Method Development: from Highly-Enrolled Classroom to Data-Intensive Proteomics , Laxmi Sinduri Vuppala

Measuring and Improving Student Attitude in College-level Chemistry: A Novel Survey Methodology and Social-psychological Interventions , Ying Wang

Targeting the Side-Chain Convergence of α-Helical Hot Spots to Design Small-Molecule Mimetics Disrupting Protein-Protein Interaction , Zhen Wang

Bioactivity of Suberitenones A and B , Jared G. Waters

Developing Efficient Transition Metal Catalyzed C-C & C-X Bond Construction , Chiyu Wei

Chemical Investigation and Drug Discovery Potential of Terpenoid Secondary Metabolites from Three Deep-Sea Irish Soft Corals , Joshua Thomas Welsch

Measurement in Chemistry, Mathematics, and Physics Education: Student Explanations of Organic Chemistry Reaction Mechanisms and Instructional Practices in Introductory Courses , Brandon J. Yik

Study on New Reactivity of Vinyl Gold and Its Sequential Transformations , Teng Yuan

Study on New Strategy toward Gold(I/III) Redox Catalysis , Shuyao Zhang

Theses/Dissertations from 2021 2021

Design, Synthesis and Testing of Bioactive Peptidomimetics , Sami Abdulkadir

Synthesis of Small Molecules for the Treatment of Infectious Diseases , Elena Bray

Social Constructivism in Chemistry Peer Leaders and Organic Chemistry Students , Aaron M. Clark

Synthesizing Laccol Based Polymers/Copolymers and Polyurethanes; Characterization and Their Applications , Imalka Marasinghe Arachchilage

The Photophysical Studies of Transition Metal Polyimines Encapsulated in Metal Organic Frameworks (MOF’s) , Jacob M. Mayers

Light Harvesting in Photoactive Guest-Based Metal-Organic Frameworks , Christopher R. McKeithan

Using Quantitative Methods to Investigate Student Attitudes Toward Chemistry: Women of Color Deserve the Spotlight , Guizella A. Rocabado Delgadillo

Simulations of H2 Sorption in Metal-Organic Frameworks , Shanelle Suepaul

Parallel Computation of Feynman Path Integrals and Many-Body Polarization with Application to Metal-Organic Materials , Brant H. Tudor

The Development of Bioactive Peptidomimetics Based on γ-AApeptides , Minghui Wang

Investigation of Immobilized Enzymes in Confined Environment of Mesoporous Host Matrices , Xiaoliang Wang

Novel Synthetic Ketogenic Compounds , Michael Scott Williams

Theses/Dissertations from 2020 2020

Biosynthetic Gene Clusters, Microbiomes, and Secondary Metabolites in Cold Water Marine Organisms , Nicole Elizabeth Avalon

Differential Mobility Spectrometry-Mass spectrometry (DMS-MS) for Forensic and Nuclear-Forensic applications , Ifeoluwa Ayodeji

Conversion from Metal Oxide to MOF Thin Films as a Platform of Chemical Sensing , Meng Chen

Asking Why : Analyzing Students' Explanations of Organic Chemistry Reaction Mechanisms using Lexical Analysis and Predictive Logistic Regression Models , Amber J. Dood

Development of Next-Generation, Fast, Accurate, Transferable, and Polarizable Force-fields for Heterogenous Material Simulations , Adam E. Hogan

Breakthroughs in Obtaining QM/MM Free Energies , Phillip S. Hudson

New Synthetic Methodology Using Base-Assisted Diazonium Salts Activation and Gold Redox Catalysis , Abiola Azeez Jimoh

Development and Application of Computational Models for Biochemical Systems , Fiona L. Kearns

Analyzing the Retention of Knowledge Among General Chemistry Students , James T. Kingsepp

A Chemical Investigation of Three Antarctic Tunicates of the Genus Synoicum , Sofia Kokkaliari

Construction of Giant 2D and 3D Metallo-Supramolecules Based on Pyrylium Salts Chemistry , Yiming Li

Assessing Many-Body van der Waals Contributions in Model Sorption Environments , Matthew K. Mostrom

Advancing Equity Amongst General Chemistry Students with Variable Preparations in Mathematics , Vanessa R. Ralph

Sustainable Non-Noble Metal based Catalysts for High Performance Oxygen Electrocatalysis , Swetha Ramani

The Role of aPKCs and aPKC Inhibitors in Cell Proliferation and Invasion in Breast and Ovarian Cancer , Tracess B. Smalley

Development of Ultrasonic-based Ambient Desorption Ionization Mass Spectrometry , Linxia Song

Covalent Organic Frameworks as an Organic Scaffold for Heterogeneous Catalysis including C-H Activation , Harsh Vardhan

Optimization of a Digital Ion Trap to Perform Isotope Ratio Analysis of Xenon for Planetary Studies , Timothy Vazquez

Multifunctional Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs) For Applications in Sustainability , Gaurav Verma

Design, Synthesis of Axial Chiral Triazole , Jing Wang

The Development of AApeptides , Lulu Wei

Chemical Investigation of Floridian Mangrove Endophytes and Antarctic Marine Organisms , Bingjie Yang

Theses/Dissertations from 2019 2019

An Insight into the Biological Functions, the Molecular Mechanism and the Nature of Interactions of a Set of Biologically Important Proteins. , Adam A. Aboalroub

Functional Porous Materials: Applications for Environmental Sustainability , Briana Amaris Aguila

Biomimetic Light Harvesting in Metalloporphyrins Encapsulated/Incorporated within Metal Organic Frameworks (MOFs). , Abdulaziz A. Alanazi

Design and Synthesis of Novel Agents for the Treatment of Tropical Diseases , Linda Corrinne Barbeto

Effect of Atypical protein kinase C inhibitor (DNDA) on Cell Proliferation and Migration of Lung Cancer Cells , Raja Reddy Bommareddy

The Activity and Structure of Cu2+ -Biomolecules in Disease and Disease Treatment , Darrell Cole Cerrato

Simulation and Software Development to Understand Interactions of Guest Molecules inPorous Materials , Douglas M. Franz

Construction of G-quadruplexes via Self-assembly: Enhanced Stability and Unique Properties , Ying He

The Role of Atypical Protein Kinase C in Colorectal Cancer Cells Carcinogenesis , S M Anisul Islam

Chemical Tools and Treatments for Neurological Disorders and Infectious Diseases , Andrea Lemus

Antarctic Deep Sea Coral and Tropical Fungal Endophyte: Novel Chemistry for Drug Discovery , Anne-Claire D. Limon

Constituent Partitioning Consensus Docking Models and Application in Drug Discovery , Rainer Metcalf

An Investigation into the Heterogeneity of Insect Arylalkylamine N -Acyltransferases , Brian G. O'Flynn

Evaluating the Evidence Base for Evidence-Based Instructional Practices in Chemistry through Meta-Analysis , Md Tawabur Rahman

Role of Oncogenic Protein Kinase C-iota in Melanoma Progression; A Study Based on Atypical Protein Kinase-C Inhibitors , Wishrawana Sarathi Bandara Ratnayake

Formulation to Application: Thermomechanical Characterization of Flexible Polyimides and The Improvement of Their Properties Via Chain Interaction , Alejandro Rivera Nicholls

The Chemical Ecology and Drug Discovery Potential of the Antarctic Red Alga Plocamium cartilagineum and the Antarctic Sponge Dendrilla membranosa , Andrew Jason Shilling

Synthesis, Discovery and Delivery of Therapeutic Natural Products and Analogs , Zachary P. Shultz

Development of α-AA peptides as Peptidomimetics for Antimicrobial Therapeutics and The Discovery of Nanostructures , Sylvia E. Singh

Self-Assembly of 2D and 3D Metallo-Supramolecules with Increasing Complexity , Bo Song

The Potential of Marine Microbes, Flora and Fauna in Drug Discovery , Santana Alexa Lavonia Thomas

Design, Synthesis, and Self-Assembly of Supramolecular Fractals Based on Terpyridine with Different Transition Metal Ions , Lei Wang

Theses/Dissertations from 2018 2018

Fatty Acid Amides and Their Biosynthetic Enzymes Found in Insect Model Systems , Ryan L. Anderson

Advanced Search

• Email Notifications and RSS
• All Collections
• USF Faculty Publications
• Open Access Journals
• Conferences and Events
• Theses and Dissertations
• Textbooks Collection

Useful Links

• Chemistry Department
• Rights Information
• SelectedWorks
• Submit Research

Home | About | Help | My Account | Accessibility Statement | Language and Diversity Statements

Privacy Copyright