America 2022 in charts: An economic opportunity snapshot

COVID-19. The vaccine. The Delta variant. And now the Omicron variant. The return from remote work (or not). The return from remote schooling (or not). The Great Resignation. The year 2021 has been unlike any other, challenging the resilience of American workers and their families in extraordinary ways.

What might 2022 bring?

McKinsey Economic Opportunity Index

Our survey questions on access to economic opportunity were inspired by the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment . For each respondent, we calculated a score from 0 to 200—from a low perception (a pessimistic view of economic opportunity) to a high perception (an optimistic view). Scores were based on the respondents’ answers to five questions:

  • We are interested in how much economic opportunity people have these days. Would you say that you and your family have more or fewer economic opportunities compared with 12 months ago?
  • Looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now you and your family will have more or fewer economic opportunities?
  • Turning to economic opportunity in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next 12 months people in this country will have more or fewer economic opportunities?
  • Looking ahead over the next five years, which would you say is more likely— that in the country as a whole there will be continuous growth in economic opportunity, or that economic opportunities will decline?
  • Thinking again about the country as a whole, do you believe that our economy does a good or bad job of providing economic opportunities for all people?

A respondent who gave low-perception responses to all five questions would score 0; five neutral-perception responses would score 100; and five high-perception responses would score 200.

To find out, we surveyed a cross section of 5,000 Americans in the fall of 2021. Our goal: to take a pulse check on the current and future state of economic opportunity in the United States and to learn more about the challenges its workers face.

Below we highlight five key insights from the survey. We hope they help spur meaningful reflection and conversation among public-, private-, and social-sector leaders about the state of sustainable, inclusive growth in America—and the path ahead for making that growth a reality for everyone.

Americans are marginally more optimistic about their access to economic opportunity than they were in March. But the slight uptick masks a broader ambivalence.

Many Americans remain in a state of economic precarity. Only 48 percent of the respondents (down from 50 percent in March) said that they could cover more than two months of expenses if they lost their jobs. The challenge increases as the level of education falls: only 38 percent of respondents without college degrees report that they could cover more than two months of expenses if they lost their jobs.

Groups reporting that their position has worsened since our March survey include women, people living in rural areas, and caregivers with a child or children at home.

Although respondents reported many barriers to their economic well-being, access to healthcare and/or health insurance were far and away the most pressing. Moreover, healthcare-related barriers were slightly more likely to be included among respondents’ top three in this survey than they were in March.

Americans with children at home experience these barriers most acutely. Such respondents were more likely than average to say that each barrier in the chart was a top three barrier to their well-being.

Forty-nine percent of the respondents said that most Americans have opportunities to find good jobs, up seven percentage points from March. This rise in optimism could stem from the ongoing economic recovery and from the so-called Great Attrition , which has increased the bargaining power of workers.

Nonetheless, unemployed Americans cited the limited availability of jobs as a barrier to employment, suggesting that some workers are avoiding widely available entry-level jobs to search for others, perhaps with more pay or flexibility. Supporting that hypothesis: the second-most-cited barrier to employment was the need for more skills and education.

Some barriers affected particular groups: the need to take care of family was the top pick of caregivers, for example, while “My identity (age, race, gender, sexuality)” was the top pick for workers over age 55.

When jobless respondents were asked about the causes of their unemployment, their answers collectively highlighted the challenges the pandemic has posed for lives and livelihoods everywhere. Thirty percent of the respondents (up from 27 percent in March) cited physical health as a cause, and 15 percent (up from 13 percent) cited mental health. Respondents who say they’ve stopped looking for work were the most likely to cite physical or mental health as a cause of their joblessness.

A third explanation for unemployment—the need to take care of family—was cited by 12 percent of the respondents. Yet that percentage masked considerable differences: those with children at home were 2.4 times more likely to cite taking care of family as a reason for unemployment. Asian Americans were three times more likely to cite taking care of family than respondents of other races.

Looking ahead

About the authors.

This article, a collaboration among Nathnael Bulcho, Andre Dua , Kweilin Ellingrud , Tom Goldenberg, Michael Lazar , Ryan Luby, and Sarah Pemberton, is part of an ongoing McKinsey research effort to understand the perceptions of, and barriers to, economic opportunity in America.

As we found in the inaugural American Opportunity Survey , in March, this new survey reminds us of the substantial—and stubbornly persistent—barriers preventing many Americans from having a more equitable, prosperous future. In particular, the lack of access to healthcare, mental-health care, and (for parents and caregivers) to childcare represent thorny challenges that leaders in all sectors may wish to prioritize.

At the same time, the pulse-check nature of the survey points to intriguing, real-time developments for workers as America moves forward into 2022. Here are some of the possibilities we’ll be watching most closely:

  • Will the divergence we observed between respondents’ positive-trending views of the near term, and their more negative-trending views of the longer term, continue?
  • Will inflation continue into 2022? If so, what effect might it have on the perceived and real incomes of American workers?
  • What effect will the continued normalization of US fiscal policy (including the end of stimulus payments) have on workers’ perception of their economic opportunity and well-being?
  • Will the labor market return to something approximating a historical normal, or will the current—and unprecedented—mismatch between the supply of and demand for labor continue?
  • What efforts can the private, public, and social sectors undertake to help provide the training and skills that workers say they need to find better jobs?

Nathnael Bulcho is a consultant in McKinsey’s Washington, DC, office; Andre Dua is a senior partner in the Miami office; Kweilin Ellingrud is a senior partner in the Minneapolis office; Tom Goldenberg is a consultant in the Stamford office; Michael Lazar is a partner in the New York office, where Ryan Luby is a senior knowledge expert; and Sarah Pemberton is a consultant in the Hong Kong office.

The authors wish to thank Eric Bochtler, Erica Coe, Jenny Cordina, Priya Das, Kana Enomoto, Nora Gardner, Jonathan Law, Savannah Leonard, Linda Liu, Sharon Mei, David Muir, Maurice Obeid, and Ben Saft for their contributions to this article.

This article was edited by Tom Fleming, an executive editor in the Chicago office.

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Diverging employment pathways among young adults

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The essays in this analysis paint a disturbing picture of economic mobility in the United States. Our goal was to explore the extent to which young people from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds achieve steady, decent-paying employment by their early 30s—and we found that nearly 60% did not. We identified four employment pathways, two of which (accounting for 43% of the study population) lead to varying degrees of economic success. Another pathway (36% of the study population) leads to working poverty and the last one (22% of the study population) leads to destitution. 

Using multivariate analysis, we identified factors predicting membership in each of the different earnings groups. Factors associated with membership in one or both of the higher-earning groups include higher education, military service, union membership, job-related training, and working in a non-service sector occupation at age 25. However, higher education did not drive membership in the highest-earning group, suggesting the limits of education as a strategy for upward mobility.  

Factors associated with belonging to a lower-earning group include incarceration, work-limiting health conditions, and prolonged unemployment. Gender and race also predict group membership, even after controlling for other factors relevant to employment. Women have a greater probability of belonging to a lower-earning trajectory group than men, and Black adults are more likely than white and Latino or Hispanic adults to belong to a lower-earning group. Nonetheless, low earnings are not a problem only for people of color. Given their relatively large share of the total population, white people still make up the largest shares of the two lowest-earning groups. 

Findings in brief  

We identified young adults who experienced at least one form of socioeconomic disadvantage in adolescence, and then, using trajectory analysis, examined their employment pathways during ages 18 to 31. We identified four distinct groups among the study population:  

  • Group 1 (22% of the study population) lives in extreme economic hardship. At age 30, more than half live in poverty and they have very low employment rates.   
  • Group 2 (36%) is the working poor. At age 30, their average annual earnings are $19,000 and they receive few employer benefits. Less than half work full time/year-round in any given year, reflecting the churn that is characteristic of the low-wage labor market. More than half live below 200% of the federal poverty line—a common measure of economic insecurity.  
  • Group 3 (34%) appears to be economically comfortable. At age 30, their average annual earnings are $42,000, and almost all receive the three employer benefits included in the analysis (paid leave, health insurance, and retirement). Almost none live in poverty. 
  • Group 4 (9%) is a clear economic winner. At age 30, their average annual earnings are $97,000, and almost all receive the three employer benefits included in the analysis: paid leave, health insurance, and retirement.  

To offer young people better options, we need better policies and programs  

Young adulthood is a time of transition, potential, and vulnerability. Following young people from their teens to age 30 allows us to assess a range of factors shaping their lives for better and worse. The barriers to opportunity we identify are daunting in their number and complexity. Educational systems, labor markets, and social policy have failed to provide the necessary conditions for all young people to thrive as they move into adulthood. 

The data points to the need for multiple, ambitious reform efforts across the following areas: 

Criminal justice  

The lowest earners in our analysis have staggeringly high rates of incarceration. Among the study population as a whole, 26% of Group 1 has been incarcerated. When we did separate analyses by gender and race, we found a history of incarceration among 36% of Black people in Group 1 and 43% of men in Group 1. 

The number of people in state or federal prisons has increased dramatically over the past few decades, from 307,000 in 1978 to more than 1.4 million in 2019—a 365% increase. Prison has replaced college or the military as a formative institution for many young people. More than 600,000 people return to their communities from federal and state prison every year, and at any given point in the four years after their release, no more than 40% of previously incarcerated people are employed.  

As Brookings colleagues have noted , “The stigma of a criminal record is one of the most important and well-documented barriers to successful re-entry and re-integration” to life outside of correctional facilities. This analysis provides one more data point showing the immense harm that the criminal justice system causes to society. Rather than taking a piecemeal approach to reform, we need to reimagine the entire system , including policing, courts, prison, re-entry, and community supervision—and do so with a focus on the safety, health, and well-being of communities rather than surveillance and control.  

Health care and disabilities  

Health problems are clearly associated with low earnings and few fringe benefits. It is a notable indicator; serious health problems are more common among older adults, yet here we see it interfering with employment among people in their 20s. Moreover, health problems and disabilities are some of the most commonly cited reasons for not working. As labor force participation has decreased over time, some researchers have pointed to health problems as a potential cause. Better access to high-quality health care is clearly part of the solution.  

Additionally, even though health conditions do not automatically equate to disabilities, they do overlap , and people with disabilities have very low rates of employment . More than 30 years after the passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act , there is still much to do to increase employment and economic self-sufficiency among people with disabilities. This includes addressing hiring discrimination , making workplaces more accessible and welcoming to people with disabilities, and building more robust workforce development and job placement services for people with disabilities.   

Education and training  

The low levels of education among workers in the lowest-earning trajectories are stark, with many lacking a high school diploma, let alone a postsecondary degree. Adolescents and young adults face a postsecondary education landscape that can be confusing , expensive, and hard to navigate. Moreover, enrollment is only half the battle—graduation is the goal. Only  60% of students  who enroll in a two- or four-year college or university earned a degree within six years, prompting some researchers to describe incoming students as facing  “coin-toss odds of success.”  Leaving school without a credential is the most common outcome for community college students, as well as for students with low test scores who enter four-year schools. In these cases, students forfeit time and earnings, often acquire debt, and have no guarantee of an earnings payoff.  

Approaches to promote college completion include dual enrollment or early college programs, in which high school students take college courses. The City University of New York’s ASAP program requires community college students to attend full time and provides a range of academic, financial, and personal supports . Additionally, “guided pathways” reforms have been implemented at community colleges nationwide, designed to offer clearer sequences of courses in particular fields of study coupled with stronger advising. 

Meanwhile, high-quality job training programs can match young people with employment in their local job markets and equip them with the skills (hard or soft) they need to succeed in the workforce and obtain good jobs. Lastly, the evidence base for integrated student supports is growing, suggesting that education and training programs that address nonacademic and academic student needs are more successful than those that focus solely on academic or technical training. 

Discrimination 

Although this analysis did not assess the effects of discrimination, our findings about the lower earnings of workers who are female, Black, or Latino or Hispanic are consistent with other research suggesting discrimination plays a role. Simulation analyses also show that if Black and Latino or Hispanic children received the same benefit from their childhood and early adult experiences as white children, they would achieve higher educational attainment and lifetime earnings, particularly for Black men.  

As a starting point, we need stronger enforcement of anti-discrimination laws regarding the hiring, promotion, and pay of people of color and women. This requires the federal Equal Employment Opportunity Commission to have adequate resources and staff —a lack of which has been a problem for decades .   

Child and family policy 

Early childbearing also increases the likelihood of falling into the lowest-earning trajectory. While the teen birth rate has declined substantially over recent decades, unplanned childbearing in the teens and early 20s is still high. Policies and funding are needed to expand accurate education and greater access to reliable and affordable contraception , as well as paid leave and child care options for young people who have children so that they do not need to drop out of the labor force. Additionally, policies that promote success among parenting students could allow young parents to access the education and training they need to avoid some of the wage penalties of childbearing. 

Unions  

Union membership is associated with a better wage trajectory, which aligns with research finding the that unions promote higher wages . Yet union membership has declined steadily over the previous decades, from 20.1% in 1983 to 10.3% in 2021 . But the majority of Americans support unions and labor organizing, and strikes have increased in the past year or so. 

Recent votes to unionize at a New York City Amazon warehouse and numerous Starbucks stores   may signal that union membership is on the upswing. This is a positive development given our findings, but labor laws are badly outdated and in need of reform in order for more workers to realize the benefits of collective representation, such as wage bargaining and protecting workers’ rights.   

Military service  

Military service is related to stronger labor market outcomes for people from disadvantaged backgrounds. However, recent analysis suggests that military recruits generally come from the middle of the income spectrum —neither the poorest nor the wealthiest families. Black people are slightly overrepresented among the active military , while white and Asian American people are slightly underrepresented. Military families also receive benefits such as subsidized child care, tuition assistance, and health care, which may offer additional wage benefits to disadvantaged youth in a system where such benefits are not widely available. (Young people in the analysis were automatically assigned all three benefits for the period for which they reported military service, regardless of the type of duty.) 

The finding that military service is associated with being in a stronger trajectory group is both a credit to those young people who enlist and a cause for concern. The military is not meant to address the nation’s economic mobility woes: In a recent report from the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service recommending strategies to bolster enlistment, the Commission described its main goal as meeting “national security and other public service needs.”  

As for the institutions with a clear mission to help young people improve their economic circumstances—public education, postsecondary education, and job training—the trajectory analyses illustrate how these systems often fail to do so. Creating a strong pathway to economic mobility will entail, as a priority, strengthening these institutions so that they properly serve youth from disadvantaged backgrounds, and then making young people aware of a wealth of early career opportunities and service options, which may include military service. 

The effects of COVID-19   

Since the data available for this analysis ended in 2018, it does not account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its massive disruptions to almost every facet of daily life, including caregiving, education, employment, and health care.  

COVID-19 cases and pandemic job losses disproportionately hit people of color, those with low levels of education, service sector workers, and low-wage workers . The economic and social fallout made it impossible to ignore long-standing problems such as the lack of paid leave and universal health insurance as well as the fragility of the child care system . Through the CARES Act and the American Rescue Plan, the federal government provided additional support to workers, families, and employers, but most of the provisions in these laws have expired.  

As of the spring of 2022, the economy has gained back most of the jobs that were lost compared to February 2020. Workers are resigning and switching jobs at increased rates , and individuals and workplaces continue to navigate an environment in which exposure to COVID-19 remains a concern. Wages are growing , which is good news—but for workers who earned very low wages to begin with, a relatively modest increase will not necessarily lead to economic security, especially given the rise in inflation . While strong demand for workers may continue, it remains to be seen whether that will translate into lasting changes in wages, benefits, and overall job quality.  

On the educational front, remote learning led to serious learning loss among K-12 students, and  college enrollment is down sharply , especially at community colleges. High school teachers note they have not been able to provide the same level of college and career readiness counseling as before the pandemic, and many recent high school graduates  report overwhelming levels  of uncertainty, anxiety, and confusion about their future.  

In short, young people have just experienced major educational and social disruptions and are setting forth in an extremely unsettled labor market. We will see the ripple effects for years, making this a critical time for increased investment and innovation.  

Final thoughts  

Some of the most powerful levers for change are the implicit beliefs and mental models that undergird explicit policies and practices. A key factor of our willingness to do the hard, slow work of system reform often goes unspoken and unexamined: our collective attitude toward young people, specifically those who are low-income, Black, or Latino or Hispanic. Do we see them as assets who can contribute to our collective future? What do we expect they can accomplish? Are we willing to invest in them? In turn, what can they expect from public services and civic institutions?  

Helping young people prepare to engage in work and life as productive adults is a central and ongoing challenge for any society. The data presented here shows that the United States is failing at that critical task for too many young people, underscoring the urgent need for action. 

Essay 1: Defining socioeconomic disadvantage and identifying employment trajectories

Essay 2: Less than half of adults from disadvantaged backgrounds attain decent wages by age 30

Essay 3: Race, gender, and other factors affect earnings and benefits

Essay 4: Women are more likely than men to be in lower-earning pathways

Essay 5: Racial and ethnic inequality is a barrier to better earnings

About the Authors

Martha ross, senior fellow – brookings metro, kristin anderson moore, senior scholar and past president – child trends, gabriel piña, research scientist ii – child trends, jessica warren, senior research analyst – child trends, nicole bateman, former senior research analyst – brookings metro.

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Whatever Happened To Equality Of Opportunity?

Buffeted by new challenges, a fundamental American value still stands.

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Editor’s note: This essay is adapted from a new book, Equality of Opportunity: A Century of Debate, by David Davenport and Gordon Lloyd, just released by the Hoover Institution Press.

Americans have consistently said they believe in the principle of equality of opportunity.  As the authors of a Brookings Institution study on the subject concluded: “Americans believe in opportunity. . . . They are far more interested in equal opportunity than in equal results.” These days, however, that notion is under constant challenge and even attack. Indeed, there are suggestions that it be scrapped and replaced with newer ideas such as equity or equality of outcome. Equality of opportunity is also challenged on the policy front, with proposed new economic and social plans that would move America down a very different path. 

Opportunity vs. Outcome

The argument today seems to be that if equality of opportunity was once the goal, it is no longer enough. In the 2020 presidential campaign, vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris called for this kind of change, saying in a campaign video about equality that “we should all end up at the same place.” She argued that if two people had the same opportunity, but began from different starting points, the results would not be equal. Equality of outcomes has experienced a renewal of interest during the social justice movements of the 2020s. For example, Kent State professor of African-American history Elizabeth M. Smith-Pryor has written that equality of opportunity may have worked for whites but is a myth for blacks, calling for “equality of results” as “a more concrete response to our current yet long-standing crisis.”

There is also a lively argument about the extent to which different outcomes are necessarily unfair or created by unfairness. Economists have pointed out, for example, that much of the gap in earnings between white and black workers is explained by variables such as education, test scores and work experience. If, as labor economist Harry Holzer suggested, “differences in educational attainment and test scores together may account for most of the racial differences in earnings,” that would suggest a different policy approach from trying to equalize bottom-line incomes. 

Then there are questions of fairness in a system of equality of outcomes. Equality of outcomes requires that individuals and groups of people be treated unequally, giving more to some and less to others, taking from some to give to others. Does government really belong in the business of taking money from someone who devoted his or her life to developing a particular talent or career and giving it to someone who did not make such a commitment? 

Is pursuing equality of outcomes consistent with the American understanding of liberty as well as equality? Is America ready to trade in being “the land of opportunity,” still sought after by millions of immigrants, in order to pursue only equality? Should government be in the business of equalizing people’s economic or social status and could it even accomplish that if it sought to do so? 

What Is “Equity”?

A more current debate, but one that follows similar lines of argument, concerns equity. Equity seems to be the new code word to describe the pursuit of a more just society and the new replacement for equality of opportunity as a goal. We need “equity” for people of color, for women, for transgender individuals, and others—these are the claims of the day. Some say we need it because equality of opportunity is no longer sufficient. Others say we need both equality and equity.

The increasing and current use of the term equity is puzzling because it is not clear what it means or how it may be different, if it is, from equality. The term has a history of use in finances to denote the building of capital. The first definition in the Merriam-Webster dictionary is simply “justice according to natural law or right.” Scholar Shelby Steele, reviewing its previous meaning, says the current use of the term “has no meaning.”  Perhaps it derives from a sense that a new term is needed for marketing purposes, or because the term equality hasn’t really accomplished all it should.            

What Government Can and Can’t Do

At the same time we ask these fresh questions, we continue to face the question debated by the founders and Progressives about the proper role of government in equality. Conservatives argue that America is fundamentally built on individual liberty and that the proper role of government is to protect that. Liberals, on the other hand, argue that individual freedom has led to too much inequality, especially inequality of income and wealth, and that only the government has the power to step in and correct these inequalities. In some ways, the history of the past century has been one of increasing the government’s role in favor of greater equality, with only occasional returns to the primacy of individual liberty promoted by the founders. 

A series of initiatives has empowered the government to bring about greater equality for groups of people: senior citizens, those living in poverty, the disabled, those who cannot afford health care, and so on. It began with Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal and the development of Social Security to afford special protections for the elderly. But Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society of the 1960s greatly accelerated government intervention by providing equalizing assistance to groups of people seen as needing that boost. The Great Society premise was LBJ’s view that, as he stated in his 1965 Howard University commencement address, it wasn’t enough to open the gates of opportunity, but you had to have a real chance to walk through them. This would require extra government assistance if you had been held down by poverty or racism, and his Great Society implemented many such programs, especially its War on Poverty and related job and education efforts. Critics questioned whether government should be discriminating in favor of certain groups, as well as whether government could actually accomplish any meaningful leveling of the playing field in this way. 

The president who tacked back in the direction of the founders’ understanding of equality of opportunity was Ronald Reagan. His view was that government not only should not, but it could not effectively, create equality of opportunity. He famously said that the government had declared war on poverty but that poverty had won. Government was not, he said, the solution to the problem; “government is the problem.” Reagan’s understanding of what he called “the opportunity society” was to shrink government and its taxation so that it got out of the way of people’s individual freedom and choices, including the freedom to pursue their own opportunities. In particular, Reagan objected to government planners who ran programs trying to direct the choices and opportunities that individuals might make.  

By and large, however, the policy debate since the time of Franklin Roosevelt has not been whether but how much government can and should help those needing special assistance. The welfare state has continued to grow. In the twenty-first century, however, the terms of the debate have shifted quite dramatically. With proposals that government must tackle income inequality, or even wealth inequality, the pendulum is shifting away from equality of opportunity to something else.

Piketty and the Demand for Redistribution

French economist Thomas Piketty is the harbinger of an even more sweeping view of equality in the twenty-first century. The new conception of equality concerns itself primarily with income and wealth, arguing that until those are addressed, there is no real equality in our society. 

Piketty presents extensive data showing a dramatic rise in global wealth since the 1980s, due especially to inherited wealth and investment gains, unrelated to work or effort, which he calls “patrimonial capitalism.” Piketty argues that government’s normal fiscal and social tools would not be enough to address this new, sweeping inequality. Instead, he argues, there needs to be “a progressive global tax on capital,” not so much to “finance the social state but to regulate capitalism.” Piketty’s most recent book, A Brief History of Equality (2022), argues that the whole idea of human progress is to move toward greater equality. 

Piketty seeks something well beyond equality of opportunity: he is pursuing nothing less than a complete reordering of the economic system. He is as much concerned with taking power and money from the wealthy as he is with creating greater opportunity for the poor, if not more. The levers he would push are power, justice, capitalism, and wealth, not mere opportunity. And there are signs that some progressive politicians are paying attention. Senator Bernie Sanders, for example, has advocated a special tax “on the extreme wealth of the top 0.1 percent.” President Joe Biden has jumped on this bandwagon, proposing his own new tax on billionaires (based not just on income but also on wealth). These moves are short of Piketty’s call for an economic revolution, but they advance his core thinking about power, wealth, capitalism, and inequality.

Can Equality of Opportunity Be Saved?

One end of the spectrum is traditional equality of opportunity as envisioned and embraced by the founders. In this view, men and women are created equal and therefore have equal rights, especially political and legal rights. From that starting point, people are free to make their own choices on how, as the Declaration of Independence put it, to pursue happiness. Guaranteeing individual rights, so that people are free to choose, is the primary role of government in this traditional view of equality of opportunity. Paring back the role of government regulation in people’s lives, reducing taxes, and promoting individual freedom was President Reagan’s path back toward this more traditional view and many conservatives still advocate this today.

But liberals argue that the government must engage in programs to increase equality of opportunity for the poor and disadvantaged, and also for ethnic groups that have been left behind in society. Johnson’s Great Society sought to move the federal government strongly in this direction, but history suggests that it is very difficult for government to move the needles on opportunity and equality. Government keeps adding to the social safety net and building out the welfare state in the hope of creating greater equality. Do we need to add universal health care to the social and economic agenda? Should we pay off everyone’s college debt? Conservatives argue that this is not the proper role of government and such programs do not work, but the debate and policy implementation continue.

Now, several movements on the left have created a new end of the progressive spectrum; perhaps we could call it a super-progressive stance on equality or “the new, new left.”

Immigrants Keep the Dream Alive

Does America continue to be a land of opportunity? Interestingly, the strongest answer comes from immigrants, who overwhelming state that this American characteristic is why they have come to the United States. Two economists, Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan, recently pulled together what they call “the first truly big set of data about immigration” from census records, presenting them in their new book: Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success. They found that second-generation immigrants, especially, found strong job and economic opportunities in the United States and, in fact, outperformed native-born Americans. As coauthor Abramitzky told the New York Times, “The American dream is just as alive now as it was a century ago.”

The huge demand from immigrants to come to America and find greater opportunity is strong evidence that opportunity still works and remains a key to the American dream. More evidence is offered by economic mobility. While studies have shown growth in economic inequality, other studies have shown that economic mobility—the ability to move from one quadrant of income to another—is still alive in America. Perhaps the most important factor in developing opportunity, and one that finds broad support in the middle ground, is education. This is where both liberals and conservatives agree and could work together effectively.

Progressing Toward Greater Equality

Equality of opportunity, rightly understood, is not really a set of government programs or policy prescriptions. Since we understand that complete equality is not possible, the proper understanding of equality of opportunity is as a point of departure and an aspiration, both a starting point and a goal toward which the society is always working. The key question, then, is not whether equality of opportunity is outdated as a goal but whether we are continuing to make progress toward it. Measuring and discussing progress is the key, not changing the finish line. This is especially so since, as it has been since the founding, the goal of equality in American terms must also be balanced with individual liberty.

There are reasons to be optimistic about the future of equality of opportunity. For one thing, the American people believe it describes the American dream—and describes it better than equality of outcome or other goals. For another, immigrants by the millions keep coming to America in search of opportunity; they see something here that perhaps long-settled Americans have lost. Then, too, young people keep looking for new frontiers and opportunities, finding new jobs, new careers, other parts of the country that support their dreams. There is cause for philosophical optimism in that some are deeply committed to equality, others to liberty and opportunity, but the combination—equality of opportunity—is still a middle ground upon which they can gather.

We should acknowledge, however, that there are also reasons for pessimism about the future of equality of opportunity. In this day of hyperpartisanship, those on the left could dig in ever deeper on equity, while those on the right advocate liberty and opportunity. Compromise has become a dirty word. 

Whatever happened to equality of opportunity? It is alive and well, but it needs to be appreciated for what it is—a point of departure and an aspiration—not for what it is not, a set of policies or government programs. Government can and will contribute to the pursuit of the goal, but not to the exclusion of efforts by individuals, nonprofits, and the larger society. 

View the discussion thread.

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SDG Lab/Rethinking Economics Beyond GDP Essay Competition 2024 (Win a trip to Geneva)

economic opportunity essays

Deadline: March 6, 2024

Applications are open for the SDG Lab/Rethinking Economics Beyond GDP Essay Competition 2024 . Leading up to the meeting on 17 April, the SDG Lab in collaboration with Rethinking Economics has launched an essay competition for young people to share their perspective on moving beyond GDP. The competition will encourage young people to reflect on the following question:

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of the economic output of a country, has become one of the most powerful statistics of our time. It has, however, been used in unintended ways, including as a proxy for wealth creation, wellbeing and development. Developing metrics to complement GDP could enhance decision-making in the best interest of people and the planet and could fundamentally change our priorities and the future. What values and principles would you like to see in a Framework to Value What Counts beyond GDP and what are the challenges to be addressed as a priority?

  • Ten winning essays will be selected to be included in a compilation to be published by the SDG Lab and Rethinking Economics.
  • In addition, the authors of the top five essays will have travel and accommodation costs covered up to €1,300 to participate in the 17 April meeting in person and share the main points of their essays during the meeting. Organisers are unable to provide assistance with visa applications for those who are eligible but they can provide letters of invitation from UNCTAD.

Eligibility

  • Essays can be submitted by persons under the age of 30, regardless of the person’s affiliation with the Rethinking Economics network.
  • Essay submissions should be between 700 – 1000 words.
  • Your Essay should make a clear argument written in your own voice. 
  • If experts or other texts are cited, this must be clear. Hyper-linked references (if any) are preferred to footnotes.
  • If desired, essay submissions can be sent with a photo image. Images must be credited appropriately and free to be reproduced.

Application

The essays will be evaluated jointly by a jury consisting of members of the SDG Lab and Rethinking Economics. Deadline for essay submissions is on March 6, 2024.

Click here to apply

For more information, visit Beyond GDP .

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Jude Ogar is an educator and youth development practitioner with years of experience working in the education and youth development space. He is passionate about the development of youth in Africa.

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The Supreme Court Got It Wrong: Abortion Is Not Settled Law

In an black-and-white photo illustration, nine abortion pills are arranged on a grid.

By Melissa Murray and Kate Shaw

Ms. Murray is a law professor at New York University. Ms. Shaw is a contributing Opinion writer.

In his majority opinion in the case overturning Roe v. Wade, Justice Samuel Alito insisted that the high court was finally settling the vexed abortion debate by returning the “authority to regulate abortion” to the “people and their elected representatives.”

Despite these assurances, less than two years after Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, abortion is back at the Supreme Court. In the next month, the justices will hear arguments in two high-stakes cases that may shape the future of access to medication abortion and to lifesaving care for pregnancy emergencies. These cases make clear that Dobbs did not settle the question of abortion in America — instead, it generated a new slate of questions. One of those questions involves the interaction of existing legal rules with the concept of fetal personhood — the view, held by many in the anti-abortion movement, that a fetus is a person entitled to the same rights and protections as any other person.

The first case , scheduled for argument on Tuesday, F.D.A. v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, is a challenge to the Food and Drug Administration’s protocols for approving and regulating mifepristone, one of the two drugs used for medication abortions. An anti-abortion physicians’ group argues that the F.D.A. acted unlawfully when it relaxed existing restrictions on the use and distribution of mifepristone in 2016 and 2021. In 2016, the agency implemented changes that allowed the use of mifepristone up to 10 weeks of pregnancy, rather than seven; reduced the number of required in-person visits for dispensing the drug from three to one; and allowed the drug to be prescribed by individuals like nurse practitioners. In 2021, it eliminated the in-person visit requirement, clearing the way for the drug to be dispensed by mail. The physicians’ group has urged the court to throw out those regulations and reinstate the previous, more restrictive regulations surrounding the drug — a ruling that could affect access to the drug in every state, regardless of the state’s abortion politics.

The second case, scheduled for argument on April 24, involves the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (known by doctors and health policymakers as EMTALA ), which requires federally funded hospitals to provide patients, including pregnant patients, with stabilizing care or transfer to a hospital that can provide such care. At issue is the law’s interaction with state laws that severely restrict abortion, like an Idaho law that bans abortion except in cases of rape or incest and circumstances where abortion is “necessary to prevent the death of the pregnant woman.”

Although the Idaho law limits the provision of abortion care to circumstances where death is imminent, the federal government argues that under EMTALA and basic principles of federal supremacy, pregnant patients experiencing emergencies at federally funded hospitals in Idaho are entitled to abortion care, even if they are not in danger of imminent death.

These cases may be framed in the technical jargon of administrative law and federal pre-emption doctrine, but both cases involve incredibly high-stakes issues for the lives and health of pregnant persons — and offer the court an opportunity to shape the landscape of abortion access in the post-Roe era.

These two cases may also give the court a chance to seed new ground for fetal personhood. Woven throughout both cases are arguments that gesture toward the view that a fetus is a person.

If that is the case, the legal rules that would typically hold sway in these cases might not apply. If these questions must account for the rights and entitlements of the fetus, the entire calculus is upended.

In this new scenario, the issue is not simply whether EMTALA’s protections for pregnant patients pre-empt Idaho’s abortion ban, but rather which set of interests — the patient’s or the fetus’s — should be prioritized in the contest between state and federal law. Likewise, the analysis of F.D.A. regulatory protocols is entirely different if one of the arguments is that the drug to be regulated may be used to end a life.

Neither case presents the justices with a clear opportunity to endorse the notion of fetal personhood — but such claims are lurking beneath the surface. The Idaho abortion ban is called the Defense of Life Act, and in its first bill introduced in 2024, the Idaho Legislature proposed replacing the term “fetus” with “preborn child” in existing Idaho law. In its briefs before the court, Idaho continues to beat the drum of fetal personhood, insisting that EMTALA protects the unborn — rather than pregnant women who need abortions during health emergencies.

According to the state, nothing in EMTALA imposes an obligation to provide stabilizing abortion care for pregnant women. Rather, the law “actually requires stabilizing treatment for the unborn children of pregnant women.” In the mifepristone case, advocates referred to fetuses as “unborn children,” while the district judge in Texas who invalidated F.D.A. approval of the drug described it as one that “starves the unborn human until death.”

Fetal personhood language is in ascent throughout the country. In a recent decision , the Alabama Supreme Court allowed a wrongful-death suit for the destruction of frozen embryos intended for in vitro fertilization, or I.V.F. — embryos that the court characterized as “extrauterine children.”

Less discussed but as worrisome is a recent oral argument at the Florida Supreme Court concerning a proposed ballot initiative intended to enshrine a right to reproductive freedom in the state’s Constitution. In considering the proposed initiative, the chief justice of the state Supreme Court repeatedly peppered Nathan Forrester, the senior deputy solicitor general who was representing the state, with questions about whether the state recognized the fetus as a person under the Florida Constitution. The point was plain: If the fetus was a person, then the proposed ballot initiative, and its protections for reproductive rights, would change the fetus’s rights under the law, raising constitutional questions.

As these cases make clear, the drive toward fetal personhood goes beyond simply recasting abortion as homicide. If the fetus is a person, any act that involves reproduction may implicate fetal rights. Fetal personhood thus has strong potential to raise questions about access to abortion, contraception and various forms of assisted reproductive technology, including I.V.F.

In response to the shifting landscape of reproductive rights, President Biden has pledged to “restore Roe v. Wade as the law of the land.” Roe and its successor, Planned Parenthood v. Casey, were far from perfect; they afforded states significant leeway to impose onerous restrictions on abortion, making meaningful access an empty promise for many women and families of limited means. But the two decisions reflected a constitutional vision that, at least in theory, protected the liberty to make certain intimate choices — including choices surrounding if, when and how to become a parent.

Under the logic of Roe and Casey, the enforceability of EMTALA, the F.D.A.’s power to regulate mifepristone and access to I.V.F. weren’t in question. But in the post-Dobbs landscape, all bets are off. We no longer live in a world in which a shared conception of constitutional liberty makes a ban on I.V.F. or certain forms of contraception beyond the pale.

Melissa Murray, a law professor at New York University and a host of the Supreme Court podcast “ Strict Scrutiny ,” is a co-author of “ The Trump Indictments : The Historic Charging Documents With Commentary.”

Kate Shaw is a contributing Opinion writer, a professor of law at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School and a host of the Supreme Court podcast “Strict Scrutiny.” She served as a law clerk to Justice John Paul Stevens and Judge Richard Posner.

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Contacts: Casey Berkovitz, Joe Marvilli – [email protected] (212) 720-3471

City Planning Congratulates This Year’s Class of Youth Engagement Curriculum Graduates

Taking place at The Laboratory School of Finance and Technology, the curriculum helps give seniors the planning tools to advocate for their communities.

During today’s closing ceremony, the students presented their mock neighborhood studies to elected officials and decision-makers.

At The Laboratory School of Finance and Technology in the Bronx, seniors discussed their final projects with guests who attended the closing ceremony of this year’s youth engagement curriculum course by the Department of City Planning.

NEW YORK – Department of City Planning Director Dan Garodnick today announced that 45 high school seniors from The Laboratory School of Finance and Technology (MSHS223) in Mott Haven, the Bronx graduated from DCP’s youth engagement curriculum course, which teaches young people about planning concepts to help them become civic leaders and advocates in their communities. Click here  for a gallery of photos from today’s ceremony.

“The great work that these students have produced through this course demonstrates that the next generation of planners is ready to craft a better future for New York City. Congratulations to them, the teachers, City Planning staff, and everyone who helped make this important curriculum possible,” said Dan Garodnick, Director of the Department of City Planning .

“Our students know their neighborhoods better than anyone, and I commend all the young people honored today for not only showing promise as future leaders of our city, but demonstrating their capacity as current leaders in their communities,” said New York City Schools (DOE) Chancellor David C. Banks . “I urge my fellow city leaders to really listen to what our students have to say and celebrate their voice.”

“By providing students with an opportunity to engage with city agencies and visit sites located within their communities, the Department of City Planning is providing the next generation of urban planners and advocates a ‘hands-on’ experience that will better equip them to make an impact on the future of their neighborhoods,” said New York City Economic Development Corporation (NYCEDC) President & CEO Andrew Kimball . “NYCEDC was thrilled to host this year’s students at the historic Kingsbridge Armory, where we had the opportunity to discuss what a redeveloped armory would mean for the community, and we look forward to hosting next year’s students.”

“Congratulations to the graduates of DCP’s youth engagement curriculum! This program equips our youth with leadership and city planning skills, and a deeper understanding of community engagement. By evaluating street improvement projects near their school, the students learned firsthand how to enhance their neighborhood's livability and design safer streets. As future leaders, we are preparing them to address the challenges facing our city, how to become effective advocates, and how to actively contribute to our city’s improvement,” said New York City Department of Transportation (DOT) Commissioner Ydanis Rodriguez .

“I am proud of the work of each of the high school seniors of The Laboratory School of Finance and Technology MSHS 223 who successfully completed the Department of City Planning’s youth engagement curriculum course,” said Bronx Borough President Vanessa L. Gibson . “When you involve our youth at an early age in real-world projects and developments that address sustainability, transportation, and affordable housing, they are not only becoming informed citizens but are also more equipped to support their communities. I want to thank Department of City Planning Director Dan Garodnick and his team of planners, human resource experts, and urban designers along with staff from The Laboratory School for their collective work in creating this amazing opportunity for our teens.”

At today’s student fair, seniors presented their final projects to City government leaders, including representatives from DCP, DOE, DOT, EDC, the Department of Housing Preservation and Development, and the Department of Small Business Services, as well as community groups such as the Architectural League, Living City Project, and South Bronx Unite. The 45 seniors who participated in the youth engagement curriculum were divided into three classes, each of whom did a mock neighborhood study of Bronx Community District 1. Each study was exhibited through five displays – one that showed a plan overview and four that covered key topics studied during their course: housing, economic development, sustainability/resiliency, and transportation.

The curriculum was crafted by DCP’s Community Planning and Engagement division and Civic Engagement Studio, and included lessons on urban planning concepts, planning history, urban design, and advocacy and decision-making, including how the public review process works. DCP is dedicated to putting communities at the forefront of planning conversations about the future of their neighborhoods.

“Over the past eight weeks, DCP’s Community Planning and Engagement division has empowered F&T seniors to articulate and advocate for their visions of a more equitable and sustainable city. Students transitioned from observers to active participants in the city planning process, proposing insightful plans based on their lived experiences and aspirations for the South Bronx. I would like to thank DCP for equipping students with both the platform and audience to shape the future of economic development, housing, sustainability, and transportation in our city,” said Hope Grossman Devore, government teacher at The Laboratory School of Finance and Technology.

“Developing a project about affordable housing was a really enjoyable experience. It allowed me and others to contribute to the future and help our community. I learned about the importance of communication during this unit because that way we can create a strong relationship between people, leaders, and communities when it comes to city planning,” said Edwin Lucas, senior at The Laboratory School of Finance and Technology.

“I really enjoyed brainstorming ideas and finding solutions for creating better living spaces in the city planning project. I learned about economic development and discovered how vital it is to invest in young people through proper training and support because we are the future generation. It's exciting to think about how empowering young people in the workforce can lead to a stronger economy and brighter future for all of us,” said Gideon Owusu, senior at The Laboratory School of Finance and Technology .

Now in its third year, the eight-week curriculum began on February 5, 2024, and was structured to build students’ advocacy skills and elevate their voices and ideas on neighborhood needs. The course featured planners and urban designers as well as teachers from The Laboratory School; and included input from City agencies with deep expertise in housing, economic development, planning, and much more.

All three classes went on site visits that covered the four main planning topics. For housing and sustainability, the students visited Via Verde, an income-restricted, energy-efficient building in the South Bronx. To learn more about economic development, the students went on a guided tour of the Kingsbridge Armory with the New York City Economic Development Corporation. For transportation, they joined the New York City Department of Transportation at street improvement projects near their school, measuring street widths and analyzing vehicle speeds.

DCP’s Community Planning and Engagement division continues to explore opportunities to expand the program to other schools and get more students involved in planning and civic advocacy.

Department of City Planning The Department of City Planning (DCP) plans for the strategic growth and development of the City through ground-up planning with communities, the development of land use policies and zoning regulations applicable citywide, and its contribution to the preparation of the City’s 10-year Capital Strategy. DCP promotes housing production and affordability, fosters economic development and coordinated investments in infrastructure and services, and supports resilient, sustainable communities across the five boroughs for a more equitable New York City.

In addition, DCP supports the City Planning Commission in its annual review of approximately 450 land use applications for a variety of discretionary approvals. The Department also assists both government agencies and the public by advising on strategic and capital planning and providing policy analysis, technical assistance and data relating to housing, transportation, community facilities, demography, zoning, urban design, waterfront areas and public open space.

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Managerial Economic Opportunity Cost Essay

Introduction, opportunity cost, scarcity, choice, and opportunity cost, production possibility frontier, calculation of opportunity cost.

This paper intends to discuss opportunity cost. The first part covers the definition of opportunity cost and an example of a situation that gives rise to opportunity cost. This will be followed by an assessment of how time and information impact on opportunity cost. Thirdly, the link between scarcity, choice, and opportunity cost will be established. Furthermore, the paper will discuss the aspect of opportunity cost under the scenario of production possibility frontier. Finally, the essay will show the relationship between opportunity cost and comparative advantage.

In a study by McEachern (2011), opportunity cost of an item is the value that has been forgone for another alternative hence can be viewed as a lost opportunity. It is essential to understand that opportunity cost is subjective because the individual making the choice is the one who is able to choose the best available alternative. In many occasions, the person making the choice is not aware of the forgone alternative.

As an example, a student can forgo an evening with friends to study. Such a student will never know the exact value of what has been given up. However, the student expects returns from studying to be higher than returns from spending time chatting with friends.

In order to obtain the value of opportunity cost, time, and information is required. Economists are convinced that people are rational when choosing between alternatives. However, it does not mean that all alternatives are assessed thoroughly. A consumer would evaluate the different options only if the expected marginal benefit of collecting information concerning the options surpasses the expected marginal cost. Owing to the fact that studying the nature of alternatives takes a lot of time and is costly, some decisions are made based on scarce resources.

There exists a link between scarcity, choice, and opportunity cost. First scarcity implies that a society does not have sufficient resources to meet all human needs thus the need to make choices. Therefore, a consumer is obliged to go for a particular choice instead of the other alternative. The link between scarcity, choice and opportunity cost can be illustrated using the following diagram.

Link between scarcity choice and opportunity cost.

The aspect of scarcity can also be illustrated using production possibility frontier. The curve gives a combination of goods and services that a society can produce using limited resources. One of the assumptions behind production possibility frontier is fixed amount of resources. This means that quantities of resources remain unaltered. However, a firm can shift resources from producing one good instead of the other alternative.

A specific example is shifting labor from producing flour to producing capital goods. The impact is a reduction in output of flour while on the other hand, capital goods increases. Secondly, production possibility frontier assumes that resources are fully employed without any wastage. The final assumption of production possibility frontier is that technology is maintained at a constant level. Scarcity, therefore, allows an economy to produce on the frontier or inside the frontier as shown in the figure below. The output of 5 capital goods and 4500 consumer goods is not possible because of scarcity of sufficient resources.

The movement along production possibility curve is a demonstration of opportunity cost because one good is chosen over the other under a situation of scarce resources.

The example below illustrates the calculation of opportunity cost.

The table above shows that the opportunity cost of producing bacon is the opposite of the opportunity cost of producing wheat. It is apparent that 1 kg of wheat costs a rancher a quarter kg of bacon. Conversely, 1 kg of bacon costs the farmer 4 kg of wheat. At the same time, 1 kg of wheat costs the rancher a half kg of bacon. Similarly, 1 kg of bacon costs the rancher 2 kg of wheat.

A concept that emerges from the discussion of opportunity cost is comparative advantage. Where a producer gives up less of good X in order to produce good Y is said to have smaller opportunity cost of producing good Y. The producer, therefore, has a comparative advantage in producing good Y. Considering the example of a rancher and a farmer as tabulated above, the farmer is facing a lower opportunity cost of producing wheat.

While a kg of wheat costs the farmer a quarter kg of bacon, the cost to the rancher is a half of the bacon. The rancher, however, faces a lower opportunity cost of producing bacon compared with the farmer. In summary, the farmer has comparative advantage in producing wheat while the rancher has comparative advantage in producing bacon (Mankiw, 2011).

It is evident from the research that opportunity cost of an item is value that has been forgone for another alternative. Evidently, scarcity and choice leads to opportunity cost. Moreover, the paper confirmed that opportunity cost determines whether a firm has comparative advantage in producing one item as opposed to the other.

Mankiw, N. (2011). Principles of Economics . Mason: Southwestern Cengage Learning.

McEachern, W. A. (2011). ECON Macro 3 . Mason: Southwestern Cengage Learning.

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The spectacular 2024 solar eclipse: What you need to know

An astonishing celestial event

An astonishing celestial event

On April 8, 2024, people across North America will witness a remarkable event: a total solar eclipse. During this phenomenon, the Moon will completely cover the Sun, casting a shadow on the Earth and darkening the sky. This eclipse is particularly noteworthy because it offers a rare opportunity to observe the Sun's corona, or outer atmosphere, and it will be visible across a wide area.

The moon's dance around earth

The moon's dance around earth

The Moon orbits Earth at a slight angle, which is why solar eclipses don't occur every month. For a total eclipse to happen, the Moon must align perfectly between the Earth and the Sun, creating what astronomers call "syzygy." This alignment allows the Moon's shadow to fall on Earth, creating the eclipse.

Witnessing totality: A once-in-a-lifetime experience

Witnessing totality: A once-in-a-lifetime experience

During the 2024 eclipse, observers in the path of totality will witness the Sun's complete disappearance, experiencing darkness in the middle of the day. This path stretches from Mexico to Canada, and those within it will see the total eclipse, while others outside the path will witness a partial eclipse.

The phases of the eclipse

The phases of the eclipse

The eclipse unfolds in several stages. It begins with the partial eclipse, as the Moon starts to cover the Sun. Then, the transition to totality occurs, marked by dazzling effects like the diamond ring and Baily's beads. During totality, the Sun is completely hidden, revealing the corona. Finally, the eclipse ends with the Sun re-emerging.

The science behind the prediction

The science behind the prediction

Scientists predict solar eclipses using complex calculations based on the orbits of the Earth, Moon, and Sun. They use mathematical models to determine the path of the Moon's shadow on Earth, allowing them to forecast eclipse events with remarkable precision. These predictions rely on detailed tables of celestial positions and precise measurements of angles and distances.

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