research paper about business in pandemic

Surging business formation in the pandemic: Causes and consequences?

Download the conference draft

Subscribe to the Economic Studies Bulletin

Ryan a. decker and ryan a. decker principal economist - federal reserve board @updatedpriors john haltiwanger john haltiwanger professor of economics - university of maryland.

September 27, 2023

The paper summarized here is part of the fall 2023 edition of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , the leading conference series and journal in economics for timely, cutting-edge research about real-world policy issues. Research findings are presented in a clear and accessible style to maximize their impact on economic understanding and policymaking. The editors are Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellows Janice Eberly and  Jón Steinsson .

See the fall 2023 BPEA event page to watch paper presentations and read summaries of all the papers from this edition.  Submit a proposal to present at a future BPEA conference  here .

An unanticipated jump in business formation during the COVID-19 pandemic may be the start of a trend toward a more dynamic and productive U.S. economy, suggests a paper discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on September 29.

“We find early hints of a revival of business dynamism; but in many respects it is too early to ascertain whether a durable reversal of pre-pandemic trends is occurring,” write the authors, Ryan A. Decker of the Federal Reserve Board and John Haltiwanger of the University of Maryland.

According to their paper—”Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences?”—applications to the Internal Revenue Service for new Employee Identification Numbers (EINs) briefly plunged early in the pandemic but then rose sharply during the second half of 2020 and remained elevated through mid-2023.

The applications were quickly followed by increases in new locations of existing businesses (establishment births) and new businesses (firm births), and, in turn, by “notable associated job creation,” the paper said, citing Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The authors analyzed business formation (both establishment and firm births) by sector, firm size and age, and geographic location. They found a shift in growth during the pandemic from large and mature firms to more dynamic young and small firms. This shift followed two decades dominated by larger firms and characterized by anemic business dynamism, which in turn followed a period of strong productivity growth powered by high-tech startups in the 1990s.

The question the authors pose is whether the pandemic business entry surge will drive a renewed and durable increase in innovation and productivity growth or whether it is largely a reshuffling of economic activity to accommodate more people working from home.

In support of the reshuffling hypothesis, they observed a “donut effect” with business applications increasing more in the suburbs of large metropolitan areas than in central business districts—particularly for service businesses such as restaurants and gyms, reflecting the shift in where people spent their time.

But, in support of the more optimistic interpretation, they note applications and establishment births increased strongly in high-tech sectors likely to fuel innovation, such as online retailing, software publishing, computer systems design, data processing, and research and development services such as artificial intelligence businesses.

They also noted a “tight connection” between surging business applications and employees voluntarily quitting their jobs and only a weak connection between applications and layoffs. They said that suggests workers were moving to new and higher-paying jobs rather than just scrambling for self-employment income to replace a lost paycheck.

“This looks to have been a genuine substantive phenomenon involving a lot of actual job creation,” Decker said in an interview with The Brookings Institution. “This was a real thing.”

However, the authors warn that young businesses started during the pandemic—and their potential economic benefits—may be at risk in the event of a broad slowdown.

“Start-ups are amongst the most fragile businesses,” Haltiwanger said in an interview. “If a significant economic contraction occurs because of monetary policy tightening … that will have some longer-lasting effects on innovation in the future.”

Decker, Ryan A. and John Haltiwanger. 2023. “Surging business formation in the pandemic: Causes and consequences?.” BPEA Conference Draft, Fall.

The authors did not receive financial support from any firm or person for this article or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this article. The authors are not currently an officer, director, or board member of any organization with a financial or political interest in this article.

David Skidmore authored the summary language for this paper. Chris Miller assisted with data visualization.

Small Business & Entrepreneurship

Economic Studies

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

Andre M. Perry, Manann Donoghoe, Hannah Stephens

February 15, 2024

January 23, 2024

Janice C. Eberly, Wendy Edelberg, John Haltiwanger, Jón Steinsson

November 30, 2023

• Youth Program
• Wharton Online
• Business Concepts & Trends
• Business Journal Articles

Researchers Dig Into How the Pandemic Is Impacting Business

Share Article:

Google Classroom:

During the 2020 pandemic lockdown, many high school students embraced innovation . For Caleb A., a senior at Sandy Creek High School in Tyrone, Georgia, that took the form of Up Next Finance , a website to help high school students understand investing, economics and personal finance . “My mission is to help people learn about finance and create a better life for themselves,” says Caleb, who has also turned to TikTok to share finance tips.

Like any good researcher, Caleb couldn’t help but observe the shifting financial scene during COVID, initially with a plummeting stock market that was 30% off its high. That volatile landscape prompted him to also write Teenage CFO , a book on finance that includes a case study about how the pandemic is affecting business.

“My overarching point is that certain industries benefited from the pandemic, while others saw catastrophic effects happen to them,” notes Caleb. “You look at the airlines, cruise operators, hotel, travel and lodging. They saw their businesses being crippled by the pandemic and revenues fell off a cliff…On the other side, we look at technology: Amazon, Apple, HP, all these companies have benefited from remote work and work outside of the office. They saw huge gains in their revenues and huge gains in usage and traffic to their websites.”

Caleb is not alone in his pursuit of understanding the pandemic effect. The advance of the Coronavirus, quarantine, vaccination and the slow emergence from the crisis have given researchers the opportunity to study issues they’ve been interested in for years. It has, in many ways, been an experiment rich with opportunities for data collection and observation.

Needless to say, it has been keeping academics at the Wharton School busy. For example, Dr. Guy David, Wharton’s Gilbert and Shelley Harrison Professor of Health Care Management , has been studying how resources are allocated during the global health crisis. “The pandemic has disproportionately affected disadvantaged people, it has disproportionately affected people who lost their jobs, it has disproportionately affected people who needed care and had to get it virtually. It gave us the opportunity to shed some light on these issues and get some very important variation that we didn’t have before,” says Guy David, Wharton’s Gilbert and Shelley Harrison Professor of Health Care Management.

As we think about the pandemic’s effect on business, here are some of the latest investigations in which researchers are digging into the data:

Productivity and Innovation . Michael Parke, a Wharton professor of management , supervised a survey-based study on productivity and innovation that was commissioned by Microsoft and conducted by Boston Consulting Group and KRC Research. The study polled about 9,000 managers and employees in large firms in 15 markets across Europe, with about 600 respondents per country. Productivity and innovation are two factors that drive business success. The study found that productivity – how effectively employees work and produce goods and services — has remained stable or even increased for many companies that shifted to remote work during the coronavirus pandemic. However, innovation has taken a hit as both leaders and employees feel more distant from each other.

One of the bigger lessons in the study, Parke said during an interview on Wharton Business Daily on SiriusXM Ch. 132, is the “learning opportunity” that the pandemic is providing for companies. ”This experiment that was forced upon us is showing that employees are able to be productive, and there are some things they really enjoy about that autonomy, so that trust is something organizations should really increase,” he said. “At the same time, [they should be] developing the capabilities to maintain good collaboration in this remote working environment, because flexibility for individuals obviously can create some collaboration challenges as well.”

“When you make decisions laser-focused on efficiency, you might be missing on resilience.” — Santiago Gallino, Wharton Professor

Economic Impact . The Penn Wharton Budget Model has been hard at work during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing research and economic analysis that help explain the fiscal impact of public policy . These numbers can help policymakers arrive at better decisions about new laws and regulations that are based on solid data. The Penn Wharton Budget Model’s economists and data scientists have studied everything from pandemic job losses to how the economic recovery hinges on the vaccine rollout.

One of PWBM’s most recent studies updates its research on the long-run effects of learning loss on the economy – in other words, how will the pandemic school closures (all those hours in Zoom class!) and resulting levels of learning loss ultimately impact the labor market and how productive workers can be? Studies have found that remote education reduces learning outcomes for students and that current students are likely to earn less in future wages.

The good news: the Budget Model’s latest findings after digging into the numbers suggest that student learning loss was not as great as previously reported. Still, there will be some effects on future productivity. Would a proposal to extend the school year and the learning make things better? The summary: “Using recently available data on learning loss from pandemic school closures, PWBM estimates that projected 2051 GDP (Gross Domestic Product ) is 1.4 percent lower than it would have been without the learning loss. Extending the 2021-22 school year for all public schools by one month would cost $78 billion and limit the reduction in 2051 GDP to 1.0 percent.”

Broken Supply Chain . The supply chain crisis is among the greatest pandemic lessons learned for businesses. It began with empty store shelves and supply shortages (toilet paper!) way back in March 2020 and has continued to plague companies. The COVID-19 pandemic caused product shortages in the second quarter of 2020 as factories closed and people who were stuck at home didn’t buy as much. The supply chain woes continue, with fewer parts to make products (like computer chips) and a labor shortage. Cargo ships are circling ports, containers filled with merchandise sit undelivered in giant containers, and stores just don’t have as much product to sell during their busiest season of the year.

Supply chain disruptions rippling through wholesale, retail, transportation and labor, said Wharton’s Santiago Gallino, a professor of operations , information and decisions, present an opportunity for companies to rethink the resiliency of their supply chains. Supply chain efficiency – making sure products are created, shipped and sold in the best way possible – is always a priority for companies. But now, suggested Gallino during an interview on Wharton Business Daily on SiriusXM Ch. 132, companies also need to be thinking about resiliency, or how quickly they can adapt to disruptions and maintain normal business operations. “When you make decisions laser-focused on efficiency, you might be missing on resilience,” he said. “Companies have discovered if it’s one shock that lasts a relatively short time, you can manage and take the pain and the hit. But when this has been going on for several months, now the issue of thinking very carefully about how you can be more resilient going forward is an interesting conversation.”

And it’s an even better topic for research. As businesses are assessing their existing supply chain from end-to-end and identifying gaps and vulnerabilities, the researchers are watching, surveying, gathering data and generating insights. Stay tuned for the findings.

Conversation Starters

Caleb A. worked on an innovative project throughout the pandemic. Did you also embrace innovation? Share your story in the comment section of this article.

What are some of the learning opportunities mentioned in the article or implied here that will help businesses work better and smarter? What are other business-related observations from the pandemic?

Why is the Penn Wharton Budget Model’s research and economic analysis so important to the future of business?

9 comments on “ Researchers Dig Into How the Pandemic Is Impacting Business ”

I think that the core idea of how the pandemic can be a learning opportunity for all of us, in any scenario, is a really powerful thing. Life always gives us challenges, but it is the way that humans adapt that truly defines how great we can be. By making the most out of situations, we allow ourselves a chance to grow as a person and develop new skills, and by thinking about problems in a positive way like this, we ourselves become happier and more productive.

We all know about the disruption and decline that the Covid – 19 Pandemic has led to in terms of the growth of innovations and existing businesses. However, the fact that the pandemic has actually influenced certain innovations positively is also a point to consider. This is evident through Caleb A’s innovative project that he executed throughout the pandemic and also many other startups founded by other people all around the world. As a 13 year old, I have personally evolved in terms of my knowledge of technology. During these hard times, I tried to use my time wisely and productively in order to gain more knowledge. I spent most of my time experimenting with electrical components which has made me more aware of programming chips and solving problems through the use of technology. I tried to solve daily life problems by building small robots. One such instance where we can see this is when I created one of my first automatic sanitiser dispensers. Slowly and gradually, when I actually created a working prototype with sensors and relay modules, I realised that by creating this product, I was solving a problem. Sanitising regularly during lockdown was a must for each and every one of us and the fact that I had created a product that helps us sanitise our hands without any physical contact with the sanitiser bottle directly felt like an achievement. This product already existed before and was being produced by various companies, but knowing that I had created one by myself at home was an accomplishment. The prototype that I had created was made simply for my personal use and not for startup purposes. From this, we can infer that the pandemic actually led to learning opportunities form people of all age groups and also helped people embrace innovations. Although, in my case, I utilised these hard times by messing around with electrical components at the age of 13 to further gain more knowledge so that I have all the information that I need about diverse aspects for executing my first innovation in the future.

Brilliant work, Caleb and the Wharton Global Youth team! I think this is an extremely pertinent issue due to the times we are in currently – particularly one that strikes close to home.

My city, Mumbai, is home to numerous small businesses, especially small book vendors who sell their wares on footpaths throughout the city. These vendors, through whom I had grown from reading Geronimo Stilton to John Keynes, were struggling to sell a single book during the pandemic, given how heavily reliant their business models were on physical sales, and how averse they were to the internet and technology.

I didn’t blame them. Amazon and Flipkart have wiped out a majority of them with predatory pricing and heavy discounts via cash burning. Caleb is bang on the money when he describes the growing rift between traditional business models and technological ones. The latter didn’t just win due to the pandemic. COVID-19 was just the crushing, final blow to physical revenue models.

With broken supply chains and consumer demand reaching new lows, these book vendors were struggling to survive. Thus, using the synchrony of the skills and entrepreneurial spirit I had, I launched The RoadSide Bookstore, a dropshipping start-up to help these vendors sell their books online.

Reaching 40 countries and over 50,000 people, I’ve realized the indisputable and ever-growing power of technology. As very correctly stated by Prof Guy David, the pandemic has disproportionately impacted the lower strata of society, one that was already disadvantaged, and has aggravated their suffering, while tech companies have minted money throughout the pandemic.

I believe that the most important thing this pandemic has taught us is that technology is a great tool to achieve equity. With the Internet being as widespread and accessible as it is today, it brings endless opportunities to almost anyone, anywhere on the planet. It’s the one way that traditional businesses and even those working from home can remain strong in the face of their respective adversities. Even though we work and study from home, technology connects us as if we’re right next door. Prof Gallino espouses the right mindset perfectly – “When you make decisions laser-focused on efficiency, you might be missing out on resilience.”

I believe that’s exactly what we need for all those impacted by the pandemic to get through it and emerge stronger, bolder, and more confident. Mind you, the economic and educational impacts of COVID-19 can’t be reversed. The pandemic will be a part of our history. However, it’s up to us to decide whether this is a crushing, last blow or a minor blip in our history of innovation. Technology is truly the great equalizer.

Hi Kush! I would first like to thank you for employing drop-shipping in a productive, positive, and genuinely beneficial way. For too long has drop-shipping been associated with fake social media “entrepreneurs”, and I am glad to see someone use it not as a means to profit but to help their community.

That being said, I am very curious about the e-commerce sphere in India. Of course, global shopping has moved increasingly virtual in the past decade, but is it the same for a population-dense city like Mumbai? When I lived in Qingdao, China (a city with over 10 million inhabitants), I noticed that there were also a lot of local bookstores. Because of the city’s emphasis on public transport, increased foot traffic led to more customers for these bookstores. In fact, bookstores became so popular, that they became common hangout spots for students after school. I am not sure how badly COVID-19 has damaged bookstore operations in China but I imagine it’s quite significant given China’s strong Zero-COVID policy. The Indian response to COVID was less extreme than China but you mentioned that Mumbai stores struggled to sell any books during the pandemic which is very unfortunate. Aside from drop-shipping do you think there are outlets for these vendors to expand their consumer base? While online shopping is no doubt more efficient and sometimes cheaper, the novelty of being surrounded by books and flipping through them cannot be replaced. With COVID settling down, perhaps vendors could leverage the nostalgia factor of bookstores and create more business opportunities.

Finally, you mentioned that “technology is truly the great equalizer.” Given your earlier statements about the pandemic disproportionately affecting the lower strata of society and how tech companies are pushing predatory practices on local businesses, I believe that your final sentiment is not entirely correct. It is precisely because technology is not equal that businesses who are not with the times can still have paths to success. I hope Mumbai, its many local vendors, and your start-up may all fight through the pandemic and be prosperous.

Wow Kush, I am beyond impressed with your startup and how far you’ve extended your hands to others around the globe! I respect that you took initiative to resolve real-world issues affecting your community and I am positive that there are many others out there like you. It is definitely not an easy endeavor when the pandemic has so abruptly destroyed our normality. Like you, I also grew up reading about the wonderful adventures of Geronimo Stilton and his friends to reading life-changing novels like “To Kill a Mockingbird” through local book vendors in my city. Thus so, I deeply resonate with you when you said that the issue of COVID-19 impacting local businesses struck close to home.

As soon as the waves of the pandemic hit, businesses were quick to establish online shops to maintain profits. However, this was not the case for every business. Many businesses located in disadvantaged areas lacked the resources necessary to list and advertise their items online while big service corporations like Amazon thrived in such deadly circumstances. Just to emphasize, Amazon’s profits have grown by 220% ever since COVID-19 made its mark in 2020. With just a click of a few buttons, one can almost instantaneously purchase what they normally would at any physical book store, whether it’s textbooks for school or the latest book by their favorite author. Doing this especially devalues local bookstores, such as Turn the Page Again, who sell books sustainably while also donating their profits to non-profit organizations.

Given these issues, it is safe to say that your statement regarding technology being a great tool to achieve equity is only a sliver of the truth. While technology has no doubt drastically eased the transition to a remote lifestyle, it has also further split a gap between the lower strata and the rest of society. In the United States, 37.2 million people were classified as socioeconomically disadvantaged. Out of these 37.2 million people, 41% of them do not own a desktop or laptop computer. Doing the math, we now know exactly that 15.3 million people do not have access to the proper technology that’s necessary to even open an online business to sustain themselves. The effects of this digital divide go beyond just businesses, it is also one of the main causes of students trailing behind in their education, especially during the pandemic.

With the ever-growing power of technology comes along the necessity for a bridge between technology and all populations in society. I propose that there be new initiatives launched with the goal of raising money to donate technology to those that are socioeconomically disadvantaged. To achieve this, businesses should reevaluate their missions to focus on combating this issue.

Kush, your startup will no doubt inspire many others to take action and also provide many more opportunities to vendors throughout the world. For our mutually shared love of Geronimo Stilton books, I wish you the best of luck with your future aspirations!

In my opinion innovation is the driving factor that has got us to the place where we all exist today. During the covid pandemic as a 14-year-old living in India, I embraced the opportunity to do something that would help the animals. In a country like India where there is a big problem of stray dogs living on the streets, they are not able to get adequate amounts of food. My friends and I set up drives in our neighborhoods to provide food and water to these dogs. After looking at the nearby businesses failing I figured that businesses have to be more flexible and have better protection against pandemics because this is certainly not the last one. Some of the observations I made were that covid with all of its drawbacks brought some things that have helped businesses be more efficient like online/hybrid mode which has come out to be quite productive and efficient. Since this is probably not the last pandemic, we must be prepared for the worst even in the best times. The businesses have to be more resilient to change to get peak efficiency. The Penn Wharton budget model has been a key in providing research and economic analysis for these businesses to be efficient. It is good for policymakers to implement these studies which are based on real-time data to help maximize productivity in the workplace and minimize the loss. The studies done by the PWBM can help improve the workplace in an efficient manner.

In 2020, when Covid-19 induced pandemic hit the country, everyone was stuck in home. As I had conversation with my peers, I found them to be happy. Why? Because they were relieved from going to school. After few months, many of them were tired of attending the daunting online classes. Even I felt dullness just by sitting in home.

As the time lapsed, I got elected as the Sports Captain, as part of the student council. Meanwhile in the first meeting with other members, after brainstorming, as a council we were convinced with an idea of e-sports fest. So, we planned together and implemented ‘festival de deportes’. While executing it, I realized that business is everywhere, i.e. business concepts are applicable in multiple scenarios. For instance, wherein I started with Market research through circulating e-forms amongst students and then we promoted the event on various media forms, especially social media which persuaded young audience to join the event. To keep it cost-effective we used open-source free software. It helped us make it more accessible.

For me key takeaways were, coordinating and collaborating with people possessing different skills, gaining experience of teamwork. Secondly, customer is centre of business planning. Since we kept our target audience in centre of strategy making, thus we achieved success with registrations coming up to nearly 1000 people. Thirdly, using IT is unavoidable. Without we using ICT, would have been unable to sustain during pandemics. This applies to businesses too. As I saw in many places, people were afraid to go and buy in stores or pay with notes and coins, instead many preferred to use mobile to pay electronically and buy from online sellers to keep covid at bay. Those (businessmen) who accepted it survived, while others suffered. Thus, we have to ultimately adopt technology.

This idea of online sports was even seen in across city, but when I did it myself, I felt I had achieved something. While doing so it is important to remember that IT and computer-based technology requires well motivated and trained staff to see desired results.

From what Prof. Parke said it can be inferred that if employers increasingly delegate authority and decision-making powers to employees, they feel motivated. This empowerment and autonomy are indeed linked with Herzberg’s theory of motivation, meaning workers show creativity and take initiative. This has immensely benefitted some firms, where such laissez faire leadership style has been adopted and led to developing of some innovative solutions. But at the same time, I agree with Professor Parke as maintaining a balance is key. Especially when everyone is working from home it is difficult to keep workers away from distraction. Thus, companies need to develop a robust communication system, which fosters collaboration and motivation amongst employees. Some individuals need clear guidance from manager and thus regular conversation within organisation is very important. Also, it is observed that many businesses do not need an office. In my opinion some companies work better from home, and do not need a brick-and-mortar office. If they continue leasing premises, they are just wasting their money. It would be better for them to move to remote model permanently.

Lastly, looking at the Penn Wharton Budget Model perfectly analyses the business environment, and goes beyond to what most businesses undertake PEST analysis- Political, Economic, Social and technological. For any business and its management looking at insights from this model can prove very useful as it provides rich overview of the market scenario. Similarly, when Government and lawmakers see this model, they can evaluate outcomes mentioned in this and use it accordingly to reshape the countries or global economy. It covers vast areas from Demographics to migration and housing to covid-19 thus even an entrepreneur can plan his future business strategy with help of this model. In short pandemic has impacted all of us in some or the other way.

As we all know about this mask free hopeless covid – 19 pandemic has brought us a big step for the technology industries. The big changes happened to the adults who has a job or not. The pandemic had brought people to be jobless but for the people who stayed in the work the environment had changed. The pandemic had brought people to work on their homes. Where the quarantine worked proved that the productivity in the house did not impact decreasing where some companies had increased their productivity. Where before, the working on the company building was normal and nowaday this kind of moving is unwelcomed to workers. This could make an estimation where after the pandemic this working home would continue by the workers. Thus, countries are directly hitting the effect of the supply chain crisis. For example, after a pandemic the country would work on to prevent this crisis again for any situation. Countries would rather increase work and supply making in their own country rather than dealing with other countries diplomatically. For example, the U.S. had difficulties producing cars because there was no industry to produce semiconductors. On the other hand, Korea had their own semiconductors industries where they had a better situation than the U.S. This means, countries like the U.S. will reshorize the companies where they were out and call other countries industries in their own country. This would have another jobless effect on the other countries. However, the recently hot issue ‘Metaverse’. The Metaverse is simply another fake world inside and living like a real world, the similar version could be VR. This would make the imagination of the technological world such as the movie ‘Ready One Player’ into a real life. The developments of the technology had a big change where this Metaverse is of a big interest now. On the other hand, The OTT business are growing because of the pandemic where the interest of the other countries are increasing. Therefore the entertainment business is increasing in other countries. For example, by the Netflix ‘Squid Game’, K-pop and K-cultures are a big boom in other countries including Korea itself. So, some countries have a K- culture concept of cafe, restaurants. As a Korean this would be the biggest honor. If the pandemic had ended would this kind of business continue? To conclude, some ideas like new where we imagined it could happen in future are now happening such as Metaverse. The country’s culture of working is now changing like Google where they work in their comfortable place and could be focused to make the best productivity. After a pandemic some countries will have a country-centered system, and the economic and cultural effects of the pandemic are very large to return to life before the pandemic. The biggest effect of the pandemic on the business was it made people make a big development on the technology industries that would happen in about 50 years future.

The pandemic was something that changed so many things beyond these parts of the finance and business world, but when looking at these specific sections, it can be seen how the effects on the business world can have such strong impacts. Reading this article explained to me further the effects on businesses beyond what you hear on the news. Since I work closely with some smaller businesses where I live, I was able to observe what changed as the pandemic progressed for their companies, and reading this article was able to put everything into perspective.

The research that is being done particularly about the learning loss with children in school is something that I find interesting. As someone who currently goes to a private school and has a younger sister who goes to a public school, I was able to do some research of my own on the learning loss in private schools vs. public schools during the pandemic. The statistics that the Penn Wharton Budget Model has found confirmed my own observations over the past two years and given me new insight. I look forward to doing more research into this topic and following the long-term effects of the learning loss.

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.

Related Articles

Is netflix in trouble, mountain guides teach us about leadership.

COVID-19: Implications for business

Covid-19: briefing note #100, april 13, 2022, as covid-19 becomes endemic in much of the world, we turn our focus to sustainable and inclusive growth..

On March 2, 2020, just over a week before a global pandemic was declared, we published COVID-19: Briefing note #1. Our plan was to publish an update on the virus’s implications for business for as many weeks as the news felt urgent. We did not expect to continue for more than two years, nor to ever publish briefing note #100, as we have today.

It’s painful to reflect on these 100 editions, on the millions of lives lost, the suffering and grief, and the myriad disruptions to lives and livelihoods. But in what is perhaps a hopeful sign, we now feel the time is right to stop. COVID-19 news seems less urgent than at any time in the past two years. All of McKinsey’s published work now intrinsically accounts for the pandemic, even if it is not directly mentioned. COVID-19 has gone from being a fresh emergency to a fact of life.

In a few weeks, we will relaunch this weekly report with links to the latest McKinsey publications. Our new theme will be sustainable and inclusive growth. After more than two years of reporting on a destructive force, we look forward to sharing our research and thoughts on how people and organizations can build a better world.

McKinsey is already exploring how to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth, the topic of the inaugural episode of the new Future of America podcast . McKinsey Global Institute director and senior partner Kweilin Ellingrud and senior partner Greg Kelly discuss how leading companies can use the pandemic recovery as an opportunity to accelerate prosperity  for more Americans. Customers and consumers want to be associated with companies that are making a positive difference. Companies can accelerate inclusivity and sustainability by having real awareness, committing to change, rewarding the change, and providing coaching and development to make the change happen.

After more than two years of reporting on a destructive force, we look forward to sharing our research and thoughts on how people and organizations can build a better world.

Much near-term growth will arise from a once-in-a-lifetime wave of capital spending on physical assets  between now and 2027. This surge of roughly $130 trillion in investment will flood into projects to decarbonize and renew critical infrastructure. But few organizations are prepared to deliver on this capital influx with the speed and efficiency it demands. Companies should consider implementing a portfolio-synergistic strategy in which planning is top down, a major business challenge requiring savvy stakeholder management, capital markets expertise, and an understanding of complex approval processes.

Sustainable, inclusive growth will require changing the workplace to maximize the contributions of all people. In the COVID-19 era, women across all sectors have shouldered more household responsibilities, and more women report feelings of burnout. These problems can be more acute for women in healthcare, who have fewer opportunities to work remotely and report feeling greater pressure to prioritize work over family. In spite of these challenges, healthcare continues to outperform other sectors in the representation of women , who make up more than two-thirds of entry-level employees and 53 percent of employees in roles at the senior-manager level or above, which is 18 percentage points higher than the average across all sectors.

Each sector, industry, and function will have to reinvent itself to achieve maximum growth and sustainability. Procurement leaders, for example, are facing one of the toughest market environments of their careers. Procurement organizations need to take a leading role in protecting enterprise margin and growth , invest in proven technology and process automation, and build deep expertise in supply market dynamics, among other fundamental changes. A pair of articles featuring McKinsey and outside experts explore how the CFO’s role is also rapidly evolving —expanding in scope, requiring new capabilities, and demanding greater collaboration with C-suite peers. Among the most significant changes to the role is the demand for CFOs to help promote capability building and talent development  within their organizations.

Here are other key findings from our research this week:

• Lithium is needed to produce virtually all batteries currently used in electric vehicles (EVs) as well as consumer electronics. We believe the world will secure enough lithium for the EV revolution , as long as new mining technologies and potential mining sites receive funding and end users communicate upcoming needs so that lithium miners have enough time to react.
• Our interactive explores how fashion is finding ways to participate in the metaverse .
• McKinsey’s methodology can be used to prioritize investments in innovations based on the economic impact of the health improvements they deliver to society .

Our latest edition of McKinsey for Kids   explores how programmers use games to teach computers how to think, ultimately developing AI. Kids can read, take quizzes, and watch animations to learn about how the human brain and computers are both alike and different and about a cornerstone of AI programming called “reinforcement learning.”

In our latest edition of Author Talks , neuroscience expert and Cognitas Group cofounder Dr. Laura Watkins discusses her new book (coauthored with Vanessa Dietzel), The Performance Curve: Maximize Your Potential at Work while Strengthening Your Well-being   (Bloomsbury Publishing, November 2021). Using insights from neuroscience, adult development psychology, yoga, and behavioral therapy, the book proposes practical ways to improve work performance without sacrificing mental or physical health.

This briefing note was edited by Katy McLaughlin, a senior editor in McKinsey’s Southern California office.

COVID-19: Briefing note #99, April 6, 2022

Some pandemic effects will take a long time to cure..

COVID-19 appears to be moving to endemicity in some parts of the world. But even in these places, some of the pandemic’s damaging consequences are only now being assessed and understood. This week, McKinsey studied the degrees of learning loss suffered by students around the world. We also looked at the pandemic’s lingering effects on the airline industry and on labor markets and examined how long it might take for some things to go back to how they used to be and why others never will.

On average, students globally are eight months behind  where they would have been absent the COVID-19-pandemic, but the impact varies widely (exhibit). Within countries, the pandemic also widened gaps between historically vulnerable students and more privileged peers. We estimate by 2040, unfinished learning related to COVID-19 could translate to annual losses of $1.6 trillion to the global economy. Educational systems could consider a tiered approach to support reengagement, with more support (including social and emotional) for the highest-risk students.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused airline revenues to drop by 60 percent in 2020, and air travel and tourism are not expected to return to 2019 levels before 2024. Challenges vary across the global aviation landscape. In particular, airlines need to bolster their resilience  by increasing their cash reserves, which would reduce the need for bailouts every time a crisis hits, and by improving their ability to reduce supply quickly and cost-effectively when demand abruptly falls. McKinsey’s latest survey of more than 5,500 air travelers globally  revealed a potential long-term challenge: the share of respondents who say they plan to fly less to minimize their environmental impact rose five percentage points since 2019 to 36 percent, and more than half of respondents said that aviation should become carbon neutral in the future. “Flygskam,” or shame about flying, plays a role. Leading airlines that build a brand promise on sustainability will likely attract a growing share of business.

In a current episode of McKinsey Talks Talent , McKinsey talent experts Bryan Hancock and Bill Schaninger discuss the power workers have gained as an indirect effect of the pandemic . Although there has been some high-profile organizing activity, the real source of worker power comes from the current high demand for labor and because remote workers have a wider-than-ever range of job choices.

• On the latest episode of The McKinsey Podcast , Sven Smit, senior partner and chair of the McKinsey Global Institute, discussed some potential effects of the ongoing war in Ukraine . Refugee numbers may climb from the current few million to ten or even 15 million. The potential doubling or even tripling of food and energy prices could cause hardship for less well-off populations around the world.
• Distributors can learn from Amazon Business and other large digital players that are building best-in-class distribution networks  and offering products they used to avoid due to technical or supply chain challenges.
• Paper and forest product CEOs should consider future-proofing companies with strategies such as “precision forestry”; by leading on environmental, social, and governance (ESG); and by harnessing digital and analytics capabilities to strengthen competitiveness.
• The semiconductor industry’s aggregate annual growth could average from 6 to 8 percent a year up to 2030, resulting in a $1 trillion industry. Amid the growth of remote working, AI, and demand for electric vehicles, manufacturers and designers should now take stock and ensure they are best placed to reap the rewards.
• General and administrative functions can optimize for speed and flexibility by eliminating the silos that traditionally occur between different departments. This will drive better cross-department coordination and allow leaders to realign staff more efficiently.
• Health provider systems could prioritize efforts to meet patients’ unmet needs  by creating partnerships with schools, community organizations, payers, private businesses, and government agencies.
• In 2020, Californians bought and wore more than 500,000 tons of clothing, almost all of which will eventually enter landfills covering an area about 3.5 times the size of the City of Los Angeles. The key to reducing fashion waste is circularity —building a closed loop for recycling materials back into the manufacturing process.

In our latest edition of Author Talks , Todd Rose, a former Harvard University professor and the cofounder of the think tank Populace, discusses his latest book, Collective Illusions: Conformity, Complicity, and the Science of Why We Make Bad Decisions   (Hachette Book Group, February 2022). The book explores why people are likely to buy into fundamental misunderstandings of what most people think.

Also in Author Talks , we spoke with Amy Zegart, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University, where she is also a professor of political science. Zegart discussed her new book , Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence   (Princeton University Press, February 2022). The book explores the current state of intelligence, why the government is behind on adopting new technologies, and what the public misunderstands about the spy business.

COVID-19: Briefing note #98, March 30, 2022

One of covid-19’s health effects is the transformation of healthcare..

The COVID-19 pandemic devastated the world’s health but may leave a lasting legacy of improving how the world addresses healthcare. The effort to develop and distribute vaccines demonstrated how much can be achieved with global collaboration, lessons that can be applied to ambitious improvements in well-being. This week, McKinsey explored how the pandemic changed healthcare approaches, including expectations, delivery, viral-vector gene therapy, investment, and consumer attitudes.

Humanity mobilized against COVID-19 at a speed and scale previously unseen. While far from perfect, the undertaking’s successes should inspire the world to challenge the view of what is possible. Over the past century, life expectancy has dramatically increased in most parts of the world, but the portion of life that human beings spend in moderate and poor health hasn’t changed (exhibit). The McKinsey Health Institute believes humanity could add roughly six years per person on average of higher-quality life  by making six major shifts in how the world approaches health.

Even when COVID-19 becomes endemic, healthcare delivery in the United States will continue to transform rapidly . McKinsey’s 14th annual healthcare conference explored the next wave of industry evolution and how healthcare organizations must innovate to thrive. The future of care delivery is evolving to become patient-centric, virtual, ambulatory, in the home, value based, and risk bearing. It will be driven by data and analytics, enabled by new medical technologies, and funded by private investors.

COVID-19 accelerated viral-vector gene therapies . Some of the earliest viral-vector-based therapies targeting rare diseases required companies to produce only about 1,000 doses across development, access programs, and two years of commercialization. In comparison, the unprecedented demand and funding for COVID-19 vaccines enabled a ten- to 100-fold increase in production when adjusted by dose amount, with over two billion doses of the AstraZeneca viral-vector-based vaccine already produced. Keeping pace with increasing demand requires the consideration of challenges, the potential for standardization, and strategizing for accelerating patient access.

In light of growing opportunities, private investors are pouring into healthcare. That becomes clear throughout McKinsey’s annual Global Private Markets Review , which delves into the data and details of a wide range of private markets asset classes, including private equity, debt, real estate, and infrastructure investing. Healthcare is a recurring theme in this year’s report: in 2021, the healthcare sector had the fastest deal-volume growth globally since 2016. Of the largest ten private equity deals in 2021, three were in healthcare, and the largest deal involved a manufacturer and distributor of healthcare supplies. Many of the top 20 private equity firms have dedicated teams for healthcare, which speaks to its growing importance within the asset class.

The number of vaccinated US respondents in McKinsey’s Consumer Health Insights Survey  has remained about the same since November of 2021, when 77 percent reported that they were vaccinated. Approximately 75 percent of respondents to the February survey reported that they’d been vaccinated; in addition, 63 percent of vaccinated respondents plan to stay current on COVID-19 vaccinations as recommended by healthcare leaders. Consumers are increasingly comfortable testing for COVID-19 at home; in fact, it now ranks as the most preferred testing location. Additionally, more than half of respondents indicated that they would prefer a health plan with virtual-health benefits.

• In the next decade, expect giant leaps in outer space. In the latest edition of McKinsey’s multimedia The Next Normal series, “ The future of space: It’s getting crowded out there ,” McKinsey experts and industry executives envision the space industry’s near future.
• Inflation could challenge the buying power of the Department of Defense (DOD) for the $773 million budget approved for fiscal year 2023. To address these risks, the DOD and industry leaders should increase affordability, improve inventory management, and develop better contracts that will help both buyers and sellers if costs rise.
• The US construction sector faces a labor mismatch . In October 2021, 402,000 construction positions in the United States remained unfilled at the end of the month. That’s a headwind for a sector that our modeling suggests could create 3.2 million new jobs across the nonresidential-construction value chain over the next decade.
• More than one-fifth of global greenhouse-gas emissions come from agriculture, making the development and consumer adoption of alternative proteins a meaningful opportunity  to reduce negative climate impacts. Top executives from alternative meat companies spoke to McKinsey about opportunities and challenges facing the industry.
• On the latest episode of The McKinsey Podcast , McKinsey partner Mekala Krishnan talks about how companies can get started on the path to net-zero emissions .
• On the McKinsey on Consumer and Retail Podcast , McKinsey retail experts Tiffany Burns and Tyler Harris discuss five things retailers need to improve in omnichannel sales , including making the experience more seamless for customers and getting products to customers faster.

In our latest edition of Author Talks , Tessa West, an NYU associate professor of psychology, talks about her new book, Jerks at Work: Toxic Coworkers and What to Do about Them   (Portfolio, January 2022). If anyone in the C-suite embraces jerk behaviors, it’s going to trickle down through the company because jerkish behavior is contagious at work, she says.

Also in Author Talks , science journalist Catherine Price discusses her new book, The Power of Fun: How to Feel Alive Again (The Dial Press, December 2021). People can improve their mental and physical health by getting in touch with what is really fun for them and making it a priority—rather than just vegging out in front of a screen, she says.

COVID-19: Briefing note #97, March 23, 2022

Uncertainty returns—but this time, the cause is not covid-19..

The COVID-19 pandemic created short-term disruptions and provoked long-term changes in how the world lives and does business. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is now doing the same. This week, McKinsey published on what we know about the war and some of its possible global consequences. Among them are likely impacts to supply chains and how companies think about preparing for crises, two of our other topics this week. Another article provides a hopeful look at the investment pouring into decarbonization and renewal of infrastructure.

We, like many others, are shocked by the unfolding humanitarian tragedy resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine  (exhibit).

As a result of the war in Ukraine, the era of not looking too closely at supply chains, trusting suppliers, and optimizing for cost is probably over. Those behaviors, already made suspect by new tariff regimes and the COVID-19 pandemic, are now likely to be consigned to history. Our latest research finds that despite progress over the past several years, companies are still struggling to build the capabilities that their emerging digital supply chains  need. The most effective capability-building programs invest in foundational, end-to-end supply chain knowledge building, coupled with advanced functional, technical, and leadership training.

As in any conflict, uncertainty is high, although it is already certain that global consequences will include disruptions to energy and food markets, testing many companies’ resilience. McKinsey’s annual global board survey of approximately 1,500 corporate directors found that a mere 7 percent of respondents gave their boards the highest rating for risk management, and only 40 percent say their organizations are prepared for the next large crisis. On the Inside the Strategy Room podcast, McKinsey senior adviser Nora Aufreiter; senior partner Celia Huber, who leads McKinsey’s board services work in North America; and associate partner Ophelia Usher discussed how boards can improve how they handle big crises .

The world will see a once-in-a-lifetime wave of capital spending on physical assets  between now and 2027. Roughly $130 trillion will flood into projects to decarbonize and renew critical infrastructure. But it won’t be easy: constructing and justifying the cost of a physical asset such as a manufacturing plant is much more difficult than it was decades ago, given inflation, rigorous sustainability requirements, and rapid changes in technology and regulations.

• The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated online purchases and package deliveries at an unprecedented rate. Even conservative estimates project that cross-border e-commerce in goods will expand to about $1 trillion  in merchandise value by 2030, from its current value of approximately $300 billion. Regulations and tariffs are also likely to increase, as are customer expectations for speed, decentralized supply chains, and specialist segments.
• The increasing frequency and magnitude of economic volatility have put more pressure on traditional financial planning and analysis (FP&A) processes and teams. Next-level FP&A teams  have figured out how to build more speed and flexibility into their processes, which can trigger more efficient and effective operations throughout the company.
• Health equity is an opportunity and a challenge for pharmaceutical and life sciences players. By following the data and by working together, organizations can meet needs and create a cycle of trust in underserved communities.
• Debra Facktor, head of U.S. Space Systems for Airbus U.S. Space & Defense , spoke to McKinsey about her job responsibilities, the future of the aerospace sector, and her experience as a woman in a male-dominated industry.
• On the McKinsey Talks Operations podcast, Bruce Lawler, managing director for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Machine Intelligence for Manufacturing and Operations program, and Vijay D’Silva, senior partner emeritus at McKinsey, discussed why some companies are pulling ahead of others with machine learning .
• On the Inside the Strategy Room podcast, Robert Uhlaner, who co-led McKinsey’s Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice until his retirement this summer, and Liz Wol, the global leader of McKinsey’s work on M&A capability building, discussed programmatic M&A . This approach to mergers and acquisitions has proven to be the most successful at delivering results—provided you execute it right.

Our latest edition of Author Talks features Reshma Saujani, founder of Girls Who Code and an activist for women’s economic empowerment, discussing her new book, Pay Up: The Future of Women and Work (and Why It’s Different Than You Think) (Atria/One Signal Publishers, March 2022). Working mothers are overburdened and exhausted, so companies that want them to come back to the workforce need to help with childcare, paid leave, and mental-health support.

Also in Author Talks , retired Navy SEAL commander Rich Diviney talks about his book, The Attributes: 25 Hidden Drivers of Optimum Performance (Random House, January 2021). Diviney dives into how we can—and should—assess and develop our own attributes, equipping ourselves for optimum performance within our lives and throughout our careers.

COVID-19: Briefing note #96, March 16, 2022

On the second anniversary of the covid-19-pandemic, we reflect on what we’ve learned..

Just over two years ago, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. Since then, one in every 1,300 people alive in 2019 has died from infection with SARS-CoV-2. Two years on, it is easy to forget how remarkable the development of COVID-19 vaccines was: moving in just 326 days from a genomic sequence to the authorization of a vaccine shattered all previous records.

For this anniversary, we reflected on ten core lessons of the pandemic  (see sidebar), some of which exposed fault lines in our society and others that demonstrated amazing capabilities. A separate initiative compiled two years’ worth of research on pandemic impacts, while a third article examined how the pandemic set input prices rising and what to do about it.

Ten core lessons of the pandemic

• Infectious diseases are a whole-of-society issue.
• The vaccine-development paradigm has been transformed for emergencies and, potentially, for more.
• Conversely, weaknesses in vaccine manufacturing and equitable distribution will require systemic change.
• Trust is one of the most delicate but critical requirements for an effective pandemic response.
• Agility and speed will be the new basis for differentiation.
• Government policy matters—but individual behavior sometimes matters more.
• Schools are the true fulcrum for the functioning of society.
• Work will never be the same.
• Economic stimulus works, but only in concert with strong public-health measures.
• Whether we experience these problems again will depend on the investments and institutions we establish now.

As part of our examination of where the pandemic took us and what’s next, we’ve gathered interviews and articles about COVID-19 from the past two years . Interviews with General James Mattis; Steven M. Jones, co-inventor of the first Ebola vaccine; and McKinsey senior partner Shubham Singhal addressed the crisis as it occurred. Packages of articles examining the pandemic’s effects on areas including healthcare, operations, and sustainable and inclusive growth show how industries have been shaped by the experience and how leaders are looking toward the future.

The aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to rock the global economy. Following the shutdowns of 2020 and the supply chain challenges of 2021, another wave of disruptions is now breaking over businesses around the world: rising input prices . Accurate cost models and advanced digital operations help organizations respond to rising costs and equip them with the tools and capabilities they need to thrive when prices fall.

• Cybersecurity threats are growing and threaten companies of all sizes, municipalities, and state and federal governments. The solution is to reinforce defenses by anticipating emerging cyberthreats and understanding the new defensive capabilities that companies can use today and others they can plan to use tomorrow.
• On the McKinsey on Healthcare podcast, Errol Pierre, senior vice president of state programs at Healthfirst, discusses what New York’s largest not-for-profit insurer learns from working with diverse communities .
• By 2020, 40 years after the development of the first commercial machines, the additive-manufacturing sector  had become a €13.4 billion industry. As technical barriers fall, the onus is on manufacturers to build skills, processes, and business models.
• McKinsey’s second annual review of the progress of digitization in German healthcare  shows solid uptakes of telemedicine and consumer health apps, but lagging use of e-prescriptions, health-data exchange, and use of electronic health records.
• McKinsey and Club 21e Siècle created the French Corporate Diversity Barometer to measure the diversity of national origins and socioeconomic backgrounds of the executives of large companies in France .
• Prioritizing privacy, sustainability, and inclusion will soon be essential to successful tech development . Companies must provide the tools, training, and resources for product managers to make responsible innovation ubiquitous.
• Internal-combustion-engine suppliers must manage uncertainty during these challenging times for the industry. To succeed, they will need a new operating model that includes formulating dynamic responses to continuing disruptions and focusing on building value through higher return on invested capital.
• Sustainability and digital (particularly e-commerce) will create significant challenges for packaging industry leaders , as well as once-in-a-lifetime transformational opportunities.

This week, McKinsey senior partners Carolyn Dewar, Scott Keller, and Vik Malhotra launch their new book, CEO Excellence: The Six Mindsets That Distinguish the Best Leaders from the Rest (Scribner, March 2022). The authors spoke about their interviews with 67 CEOs as part of our Author Talks series and how they identified the traits that separate the best leaders from the pack.

COVID-19: Briefing note #95, March 9, 2022

Another global crisis is now overshadowing covid-19..

For the first time in two years, concerns about another global crisis overshadowed the COVID-19 pandemic: the Russian government’s invasion of Ukraine and the humanitarian tragedy it is causing. Implications for the world economy will become more visible in the coming weeks and months; this week, McKinsey identified some immediate global economic impacts. Coincidentally, our other major publishing initiative this week is a deep dive into insurance—an industry that exists, in essence, in case things go wrong.

The Russian government’s invasion of Ukraine is causing a humanitarian crisis and economic risks. Our Global Economics Intelligence executive summary  for February discusses how the invasion of Ukraine has mostly set energy prices surging. The oil price (Brent) was near $60 per barrel on December 1 but climbed steadily thereafter, touching $100 in late February. The price of natural gas and coal has similarly climbed during this period (exhibit). Prior to the invasion, the US dollar was depreciating slightly against most major currencies; it is now rising in value. Other immediate economic effects were spikes in the prices of gold, crude oil, and natural gas, as well as stock market losses.

As part of our celebration of International Women’s Day 2022, 20 female McKinsey partners offer insights in a series of interviews on the insurance industry . Topics include operations, growth, claims management, underwriting, product innovation, digital business building, and motor insurance. Further interviews examine women’s representation in the insurance industry and look at the broader issue of diversity in insurance.

New customer expectations, low interest rates, and new sources of competition (such as leading tech companies, insurtechs, and third-party capital) are putting pressure on insurance carriers to be more innovative . It’s not easy: successfully profiting from innovation is a complex, company-wide endeavor, and most insurers have not yet consistently cracked this code. Steps for building innovation into the way an organization works include shifting resources from core business tasks to breakthrough innovation initiatives and developing distinct product-development pathways and processes.

Insurers should consider programmatic M&A : systematically acquiring small to midsize businesses, services, and capabilities and integrating them as new businesses or capabilities. Insurers can use this approach to tackle issues including sustaining growth in core life and annuity businesses and enhancing property and casualty presence in growth markets.

• On The McKinsey Podcast , McKinsey partners Michael Chui and Mark Collins share their thoughts on the findings of McKinsey’s latest Internet of Things (IoT) report . Fast-growing areas include consumer applications (especially in the connected home); hospital, acute-care, and residential-care settings; and factories, cities, and work sites. Integrating IoT is often easier in greenfield settings but harder to integrate into legacy environments.
• Of 346 large M&A deals announced between 2013 and 2020, 47 were canceled for antitrust or regulatory reasons . While executing remedy separations, it is vital to adhere to the perimeter set by regulators, move fast in identifying potential buyers, and ensure a close integration between the remedy separation process and the overall transaction and integration process.

In this edition of Author Talks , Deepa Purushothaman talks about her new book, The First, the Few, the Only: How Women of Color Can Redefine Power in Corporate America (Harper Collins, March 2022). Drawing on more than 500 original interviews, Purushothaman examines work life for women of color and what needs to change to improve their experiences.

COVID-19: Briefing note #94, March 3, 2022

The covid-19 pandemic may finally be ending..

A new variant may yet trigger another chapter in the COVID-19 pandemic, and societies must be prepared to respond if and when that happens. But for now, the pandemic phase looks to be ending. With a possible conclusion in sight, this week McKinsey focused on how postpandemic workforces can be supported with expanded opportunity, digital tools, more equitable promotions, and better office design.

In the latest edition of our “ When will the COVID-19 pandemic end ?” series, McKinsey examined scenarios that would lead to either reigniting a pandemic-level crisis or further steps toward endemicity. As long as Omicron remains the dominant variant, there is reason for relative optimism; in the United States, for example, hospitalizations would remain low (exhibit). By and large, the six-month outlook in many countries is brighter than at any time in the past two years. The main risk to the transition to endemicity is a significantly different and more severe new variant that replaces Omicron as the dominant strain.

The latest episode of the McKinsey Global Institute’s Forward Thinking podcast features David Autor, the Ford Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology . Autor identifies pandemic paradoxes, which include that many thought US poverty and joblessness would skyrocket, but the opposite occurred when poverty rates plummeted to unprecedented lows and the United States ended up with a labor shortage. Leaders should think about ways to expand opportunities, including by being honest with themselves and the labor market about which jobs truly require a college degree.

On McKinsey Talks Talent , HR expert David Green speaks with McKinsey talent experts Bryan Hancock and Bill Schaninger. HR leaders can use people analytics  to identify big-picture attrition patterns, illuminate how office space is being used, and automate parts of the recruiting process, including finding diverse candidates.

In technical roles, only 52 women are promoted to manager for every 100 men, according to McKinsey’s Women in the Workplace 2021  report, coauthored with LeanIn.Org. Companies can improve women’s promotion rates  by providing equitable access to skill building, implementing a structured promotion process that seeks to remove bias, and building a strong culture of support for women via mentors and sponsors.

Diane Hoskins, co-CEO of Gensler, a global design and architecture firm , has been thinking about effective workplaces for decades and is now helping her clients navigate the next normal. In a conversation with McKinsey Real Estate Practice leader Aditya Sanghvi, Hoskins discusses how COVID-19 made it even more essential to design offices around organizational strategies, leadership models, operational frameworks, and potential outcomes of a company.

• The Consumer Price Index rose faster in January than at any time in the prior 40 years. Businesses facing inflation are caught  between the need to reprice and sustain margins and the damage this can do to customer relationships and sales. McKinsey’s suggested approach can help companies establish sales-led pricing for inflation while maintaining long-term value for the business and its customers.
• Banks can learn to manage nonfinancial risks by observing the effective approaches corporates have developed. These include embedding risk into strategy and improving overall resilience.
• Our analysis suggests that in 2030, demand for green steel in Europe could be twice as great as the available supply, and there may be global shortages of recycled aluminum and recycled plastic. By planning green-materials sourcing strategies , companies can achieve immediate emissions reductions and sustain progress toward longer-term goals.
• COVID-19 accelerated the sophistication of China’s logistics industry , a crucial node in the global supply chain. Greater consolidation and integration are likely in some subsectors—such as third-party logistics and express-delivery carriers—and expect growth in other areas, such as warehouse automation and air cargo.
• On the McKinsey on Government podcast, McKinsey senior partner Scott Blackburn and partner Brooke Weddle discuss how the US government’s leaders can implement an effective transformation.

In this edition of Author Talks , Whitney Johnson, the CEO of tech-enabled talent agency Disruption Advisors, talks about her new book, Smart Growth: How to Grow Your People to Grow Your Company  (Harvard Business Review Press, January 2022). Mastering new skills follows an S-curve, where there’s a difficult introductory phase, a “sweet spot” where you’re enjoying applying new knowledge, and an end part of the curve where boredom can set in. Leaders need to understand where their teams are to create the right supports for each phase, Johnson says.

COVID-19: Briefing note #93, February 23, 2022

The covid-19-pandemic accelerated our need for a new kind of growth..

The COVID-19 pandemic served as an accelerant in multiple ways. This week, McKinsey looked at how the pandemic spurred the adoption of telehealth and e-commerce, exacerbated pressure on nurses, and made company operations more complex. In the big picture, it increased the urgency for a new vision of global growth, one that benefits more people and leaves our planet healthy.

Crises such as COVID-19 can become watersheds of policy and strategy. In an editorial published in Fortune , Klaus Schwab, the founder and executive director of the World Economic Forum, and Bob Sternfels, McKinsey’s global managing partner, propose pursuing a sustainable, inclusive growth agenda  that supports the health of the natural environment while improving the livelihoods of wider population segments. Leaders can shape a resilience agenda by addressing the interrelationships between climate, healthcare, labor needs, supply chains, digitization, finance, and inequality and economic development.

To build a better future, the emphasis must now shift from defensive measures and short-term goals to a sustainable, inclusive growth agenda.

The pandemic ignited telehealth: as of mid-2021, utilization was 38 times higher  than before the pandemic. However, McKinsey’s most recent Physician Survey showed that most doctors don’t love telehealth as much as patients do . Most expect to return to a primarily in-person delivery model over the next year, and 62 percent said they recommend in-person over virtual care to patients.

The pandemic essentially forced consumers to try e-commerce and to increasingly rely on product ratings and reviews to give them the confidence to make purchases. The total number of global reviews roughly doubled in the year after COVID-19 started. On The McKinsey Podcast , McKinsey partner Dave Fedewa and McKinsey senior expert Chauncey Holder discuss how companies need to adapt to the new world in which reviews matter more than ever .

Healthcare workers and their organizations continue to face unparalleled demands stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. Thirty-two percent of registered nurses surveyed in the United States in November said they may leave  their current direct-patient-care role, according to McKinsey’s latest research. Healthcare organizations can consider a number of medium- and longer-term strategies to support their workforces.

As companies look at areas to automate, they need a clear, complete picture of service processes . The complexity of services, which often involve coordinating multiple functions in nonlinear ways, makes bad handoffs a perpetual problem. Add to these factors the burgeoning number of customer touchpoints and the accelerated move to remote working since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the challenge looms even larger. An approach we call process insights—which marries technology tools and analytics in a disciplined, three-stage process—shows promise.

While our theme this week is the pandemic’s accelerating effects, we also looked at the opposite: how COVID-19 can spur lightning-fast pullbacks. Although consumer confidence is growing, desire for travel has shown a faltering recovery due to sporadic COVID-19 outbreaks. Our examination of China’s tourism industry  showed that a predictable pattern is emerging where desire for travel recovers roughly two months after a decline. Furthermore, travelers’ preferences are shifting, with implications for travel companies.

• Signed in November, the US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will provide more than $1 trillion in public investment. One core component of the legislation is addressing the country’s aging water system . The act provides funding to replace lead pipes, address emerging contaminants in small and disadvantaged communities, and support rural water projects.
• A relative lack of top software companies threatens Europe’s economic competitiveness. But Europe could take a lead in software  and build large players by playing to the continent’s strengths: vertical B2B software, software platforms for digitizing small and medium-size enterprises, and horizontal platforms built on European R&D excellence.
• Software sourcing , now a major driver of overall product cost, requires critical investments in capabilities and technologies, as well as significant financial resources. Those players that can procure software and related services at minimum cost and risk have a distinct competitive advantage.
• Asian acquirers are key players in the Asian M&A landscape , and many are setting their sights worldwide. Our research finds that the most effective dealmakers practice programmatic M&A  tied directly to a stated strategy.
• On the McKinsey on Consumer and Retail podcast, McKinsey partner David Feber and Amcor CEO and managing director Ron Delia talk about exciting innovations that could transform the packaging industry .

This week in Author Talks , Ruchika Tulshyan, an award-winning inclusion strategist and speaker, discusses her new book, Inclusion on Purpose: An Intersectional Approach to Creating a Culture of Belonging at Work (MIT Press, March 2022). She explores the bias behind terms such as “lean in” and “culture fit” and proposes that inclusion efforts target the needs of women of color.

This briefing note was edited by Katy McLaughlin, a senior editor in the Southern California office.

COVID-19: Briefing note #92, February 16, 2022

As omicron reminded us, health is everything..

McKinsey focused on health this week, starting with a discussion of how Omicron has played out so far and what is likely next in the pandemic’s trajectory. An article on women’s health explores the remarkable tradition of viewing it as a healthcare niche, rather than a core concern of half the world’s population. Technology is increasingly merging with healthcare, so we extrapolated this theme further to examine how to keep companies’ technology healthy.

In this episode of The McKinsey Podcast , Shubham Singhal, senior partner and global leader of McKinsey’s Healthcare and Public & Social Sector Practices, reflects on where Omicron has taken us so far and where we go from here . Omicron spread so fast because it evades prior immunity and is more transmissible, allowing it to out-compete the previously dominant strain. Society will begin viewing COVID-19 as endemic when we’re comfortable getting on with life even though the risk of disease is not zero (and for the unvaccinated, it remains high).

Half of the world’s population is women, and women account for 80 percent of consumer-purchasing decisions in the healthcare industry. Yet women’s health has been considered a niche market  and a mere subset of healthcare. A particularly illuminating statistic: only 1 percent of healthcare research and innovation is invested in female-specific conditions beyond oncology. Changing how the industry thinks about women’s health is an important step toward identifying value-creating opportunities for meeting women’s healthcare needs.

It is not a light switch event to get to an endemic phase, because it is as much about the behavior and psychology that we all exhibit as it is about the epidemiology of the virus itself.

FemTech is an emerging category consisting of tech-enabled, consumer-centric solutions addressing women’s health. Depending on scope, estimates for FemTech’s current market size range from $500 million to $1 billion, and forecasts suggest opportunities for double-digit revenue growth. Our analysis of 763 companies indicates that the dynamics underlying FemTech are accelerating and that public awareness, company formation, and funding are surging.

When employees feel understood and supported by their employers, they tend to be happier, more effective, and more likely to stick around. Companies can use the power of AI and machine learning to coach employees . An AI-driven system can be designed to identify key moments when employees would benefit from a “nudge” that guides them toward positive actions, including improving their health, accessing training, and trying a different performance approach.

To protect the health of our work environments from ransomware , everyone from the board and C-suite to down the line must work to ingrain security into an organization’s DNA. Ransomware costs are expected to reach $265 billion by 2031. Supply chain attacks rose by 42 percent in the first quarter of 2021 in the United States, affecting up to seven million people, while security threats against industrial control systems and operational technology more than tripled in 2020.

• McKinsey’s Global Insurance Report 2022 explores long-term challenges facing the industry as well as a raft of trends unleashed by COVID-19. Insurers face fundamental strategic questions of how to create more value for shareholders and how to reframe the role of insurance in society. The report proposes nine imperatives that will help carriers navigate the current environment and focus on the businesses of which they are the best natural owners.
• With a target of a 78 percent reduction in economy-wide greenhouse-gas emissions by 2035 now enshrined in law, there is a strong impetus to transition the United Kingdom’s energy system to net zero . Looking at electricity demand, technology, and the grid, McKinsey examines options available to investors, regulators, policy makers, and energy companies.
• Companies used to outsource business processes primarily as a cost-saving strategy. Today, companies outsource to capitalize on sophisticated provider offerings , including customized industry solutions and advances in digital technology, such as AI, analytics, and machine learning.

In this edition of Author Talks Amy Webb, a leading futurist and business adviser, talks about her recent book, The Genesis Machine: Our Quest to Rewrite Life in the Age of Synthetic Biology (Hachette Book Group, February 2022), coauthored by microbiologist Andrew Hessel. The book explores a new field of science that combines engineering, design, and computers with biology, enabling the engineering of living cells. Webb says that synthetic biology—the ability to reprogram the fundamental units of life—is going to change industries such as healthcare, agriculture, and industrial materials.

COVID-19: Briefing note #91, February 9, 2022

The ceo job description just got a bit longer..

CEOs have always carried a heavy workload, but the issues they confront today add several fresh layers. Climate change requires a new way of looking at asset value that models the potential impact of various types of risk. COVID-19 and its aftermath means leaders must engage empathetically in topics relating to their employees’ well-being. This week, McKinsey examined how the pandemic and other world events have added to leaders’ list of most important tasks.

Climate change and the risks it imposes upon assets and markets is one of the biggest challenges confronting CEOs and other leaders today. The real-estate industry is already facing the need to build new capabilities that allow it to assess how climate-change risks alter values and what subsequent actions to take. Part of capability building involves understanding both physical risks and transition risks stemming from regulatory, social, and market reactions to climate change (exhibit). Once real estate and other leaders understand value impact, they can proceed to decarbonizing and finding new sources of value throughout the climate transition.

COVID-19 brought on a new set of employee pressures , including trying to take care of work and children at a time when school doors close suddenly, and managing the 24/7 nature of working from home. These burdens also imply a new set of pressures for CEOs and other leaders as they attempt to support overburdened workforces. On the McKinsey Talks Talent podcast, McKinsey talent experts Bryan Hancock and Bill Schaninger discuss how leaders must engage in employees’ lives and well-being in ways they seldom did in the past.

We’re in one of the most bewildering labor markets  in a generation, said Asutosh Padhi, McKinsey’s managing partner for North America, in a CNN Business Perspectives commentary. CEOs can respond by expanding recruitment efforts to people who have work experience but don’t have degrees; supporting more “gateway jobs,” or stepping-stone positions that provide an income boost; and by challenging their organizations to embrace a more inclusive, skills-based approach to hiring and talent management.

Across industries, product-development functions are encountering a perfect storm of supply chain issues  arising from the pandemic, the current labor mismatch , and evergreen themes of managing cost, quality, and time. Rather than becoming part of the much-bemoaned war for talent, companies can develop the capabilities of their existing workforce  to fill skills gaps.

As the economy continues to reel from the effects of COVID-19, consumer-packaged-goods companies are under more pressure  than ever. Prices for food and packaging commodities have increased by more than 22 percent. Manufacturing wages and labor costs rose in 2020 from 5 to 20 percent of total costs. To respond to these rapid, sweeping changes, companies need to transform their operating models to the new reality.

Given that economies are expected to shift away from stimulus spending and other policy supports, forecasters and economists generally project a slower pace for global growth in 2022—but one that is still faster than prepandemic levels. January’s Global Economics Intelligence executive summary  focuses on how inflation is playing out around the world, efforts to control it, and its impact on growth and employment.

• To better understand recent developments in sustainable packaging , we mapped regulations in 30 countries and found four common patterns. To ensure they comply with evolving requirements, packaging companies should track regulatory changes in their focus markets and implement processes to address future requirements proactively.
• Responding to a McKinsey survey, two out of three Americans told us their social values now shape their shopping choices, and 45 percent believe retailers should actively support Black-owned businesses and brands. Most retailers will need to make changes to meet the needs of these “inclusive consumers” by sourcing products that dovetail with consumer values and by communicating the changes to the public.
• Up to four-fifths of a product’s lifetime emissions  are determined by decisions made at the design stage. By building on proven cost-optimization techniques, companies can get those choices right.
• Myths often hold back heavy industries from activating agile working practices . However, agility in heavy-industry organizations can be used to make operational improvements, to enhance run activities, to augment all-important safety standards, and ultimately to become an enduring source of competitive advantage.

In this edition of Author Talks , Neil Hoyne, Google’s chief measurement strategist, discusses his new book Converted: The Data-Driven Way to Win Customers’ Hearts (Penguin Random House, February 2022). Data alone is not the answer for companies trying to grow, Hoyne says. Instead, companies can find growth by creating the right data strategy, leadership, and processes.

COVID-19: Briefing note #90, February 2, 2022

The postpandemic world calls for fresh leadership ideas..

Organizations increasingly recognize that modern leadership means knowing how to make the most of digitization and technology, diverse talent, and the opinions of a range of stakeholders. This week, McKinsey dug for the details. Articles and an interactive explore how companies can take advantage of advanced-intelligence technology and become truly data driven. A new interview series illuminates how three Black leaders developed their leadership styles, while further articles explore casting the idea net wider.

Leading industrial and manufacturing companies are using machine-intelligence technologies to move the needle on a broad set of performance indicators, achieving three or four times the impact of average players. The full scale of the opportunity is set to continue as more use cases evolve from simple dashboards to greater levels of autonomy.

What exactly does it mean to be a data-driven enterprise , and what would such an organization look like by 2025? Our interactive helps executives envision success by defining seven characteristics of a data-driven organization, how each would differ from what we typically see today, and how to achieve each step. Companies able to make the most progress fastest stand to capture the highest value from data-supported capabilities.

McKinsey created the Connected Leaders Academy to equip Black, Hispanic, Latino, and Asian leaders with the network and capabilities to achieve their professional aspirations. In our new interview series , My Leadership Journey, participants from the private sector, academia, the arts, and other walks of life reflect on their formative experiences and leadership styles. Jason Wright, president of Washington’s football team, the Commanders , told McKinsey about getting cut nine times from the NFL and talking his way back to opportunity by honing a narrative about what he could contribute. Stephanie Hill, executive vice president of Lockheed Martin’s Rotary and Mission Systems , discussed the importance of accepting uncomfortable challenges to build a career. Barry Lawson Williams, founder and former managing general partner of Williams Pacific Ventures , who has also served on 16 major public-company boards, spoke about how he built a network that helped position him for lucky breaks.

What does an army veteran who has returned from deployment five times have to teach a McKinsey organizational expert? Plenty, as a letter and conversations between Adria Horn, executive vice president of workforce at Tilson, a national telecom provider, and senior partner Aaron De Smet revealed. Horn reached out to McKinsey after reading about how companies can reengage employees postpandemic . She shared her view of parallels between soldiers returning from war zones and employees coming back  to the office after living through the COVID-19 pandemic. The resulting conversation explores the alienation of return and how employers can work from a place of empathy.

Brainstorming is supposed to result in conversations like the one between Horn and De Smet. But too often, the value of casting the net wide for opinions is undercut by participants feeling pressured to conform. A structured approach that guides a group through anonymous brainstorming  and silent voting removes some of the risks that can thwart honest discussion.

• Based on a survey of physicians who serve predominantly Medicare fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage patients, we estimate that up to $265 billion worth of care services could shift from traditional facilities to the home by 2025  without a reduction in quality or access. Care at Home could create value for payers, healthcare facilities and physician groups, providers, technology companies, investors, and, above all, patients.
• Korean companies would benefit from portfolio restructuring by making governance more transparent and by advancing women’s equality at work. In a wide-ranging conversation, André Andonian, managing partner of McKinsey Korea, discusses McKinsey’s near- and long-term goals in the country and how Korea is preparing for the post-COVID-19 economy .
• Investors are directing more funds to projects involving lunar and beyond orbital regimes , which have traditionally attracted less attention than regimes at lower altitudes. All signs point to continued growth.

Even the most seasoned professional was a neophyte at some point, a fact celebrated in our My Rookie Moment video series, in which McKinsey colleagues discuss the first time they had to deal with a particular challenge. The latest edition features stories about “leaps of faith,” in which partners had to do something for which they felt unprepared. Yarns include a tale of on-command public speaking and the recollection of facing a client who demanded different conclusions.

COVID-19: Briefing note #89, January 26, 2022

Tackling the other big global crisis..

Since March of 2020, we have focused this weekly update on sharing research into the health emergency facing the world. This week, we took a break from the COVID-19 pandemic to zero in on the other crisis that poses threats to lives and livelihoods: climate change, and the need to transition to a net-zero world. Additional articles looked at pressing issues including why the loss of US manufacturing has increased inequality, and how the Great Attrition is playing out in nursing.

A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute  looks at what an economic transformation to net-zero emissions would entail . The transformation would affect all countries and all sectors of the economy, either directly or indirectly. In six sections of the report, we assess economic shifts for 69 countries and changes in sectors that produce about 85 percent of overall emissions, as well as provide estimates for what it will all cost (exhibit).

The report includes an examination of effective decarbonization actions , which include shifting the energy mix, increasing energy efficiency, and enhancing sinks of both long- and short-lived greenhouse gases. Another section illustrates the economic and societal adjustments that would enable a successful transition  to net-zero emissions by 2050, focusing on demand, capital allocation, costs, and jobs. We examine which sectors of the economy are more exposed to a net-zero transition , and how the transition could play out in various countries and regions . A section about actions for stakeholders  explores what companies, financial institutions, and governments and multilateral institutions can do.

Also this week: revitalizing US manufacturing could be fundamental to resolving inequities  while driving sustainable, inclusive growth. Today, the manufacturing sector represents just 10 percent of US GDP and jobs but drives 20 percent of the nation’s capital investment, 35 percent of productivity growth, 60 percent of exports, and 70 percent of business R&D expenditure. Strengthening the sector could also address the pervasive supply chain issues wreaking havoc all over the world, easing short-term disruption caused by the pandemic while improving global competitiveness in the midterm to long term.

During a time of unprecedented need, what can employers do to prevent losing nurses , the backbone of the healthcare workforce, to the Great Attrition ? The McKinsey Podcast speaks with senior partner Gretchen Berlin, a registered nurse, about the need to pay nurses adequately and to ensure that there’s sufficient staffing, respite, and gratitude.

• In October 2020, coking coal accounted for more than half of the cost of the raw materials needed to produce a metric ton of steel via a blast furnace—a rare occurrence by historical standards. Though prices have fallen since then, steelmakers should consider the effect of longer-term coal price increases  as part of their planning and adjust their plans as the implications evolve.
• The new normal for sporting goods  includes increased health awareness, acceptance of athleisure, thriving e-commerce, and sustainability as a core concern. McKinsey’s summary of the state of the industry suggests strategies for navigating the trends.
• New and better digital tools can help companies analyze voice conversation  and unlock the full potential of digital investments to improve customer service.

In the latest edition of our Author Talks series, John Koenig, author of The Dictionary of Obscure Sorrows (Simon & Schuster, November 2021), discusses how and why he invents new words for emotions and sensations. From “kenopsia” (the eeriness of places left behind) to “suerza” (a feeling of quiet amazement that you exist at all), Koenig’s made-up words pinpoint universal experiences and demonstrate how creative human language can be.

COVID-19: Briefing note #88, January 19, 2022

Fallout from the pandemic demands targeted action..

For much of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaders have tried to prepare for what might unfold. Today, some of those possibilities have arrived as undeniable challenges that demand new ways of operating. This week, McKinsey looked at fallout, including inflation, young peoples’ mental-health struggles, a pattern of “jolting” growth, and the demand for government agencies to improve customer service.

Not since the 1970s has inflation been such a central issue for companies, so finding creative ways to mitigate price increases  is a dormant skill in many organizations. McKinsey experts offer a series of steps supply-chain leaders can use to determine whether a price increase is fair, starting by identifying the main cost inputs that have the highest level of change, estimating the percentage of the total cost these inputs make up, and calculating an acceptable price-increase range (exhibit). Response strategies include using a strong fact base for win–win negotiating and exploring new suppliers.

A series of McKinsey consumer surveys and interviews indicated unprecedented behavioral-health challenges facing Generation Z  and stark differences among generations. Gen Z respondents were more likely than other generations to report having been diagnosed with a mental-health or substance-use issue, as well as more likely to have sought no treatment for the problem. Gen Z respondents were also two to three times more likely than other generations to report thinking about, planning, or attempting suicide in the 12 months spanning late 2019 to late 2020.

There could be a postpandemic boom on the horizon, but it will likely depend on business leaders’ ability to respond to productivity and growth “jolts”  caused by the pandemic. The onset of COVID-19 brought a set of discontinuities that drove the first jolt to growth and productivity. Now, near-term uncertainties pose risks to growth; however, responding effectively could translate to a second jolt. The potential third and final jolt may be the largest as companies reshape their long-term strategies to reflect—and define—the next normal.

On the McKinsey on Government podcast, McKinsey partner Tony D’Emidio and associate partner Marcy Jacobs discuss how the pandemic forced many government agencies to modernize the customer experience  (CX) amid high demand for unemployment and healthcare assistance. Transparency has improved, but there is more work to do so that when citizens fill out applications or forms, they get status updates instead of just wondering what happened. Another insight: better CX brings costs down because satisfied customers call with fewer questions.

• Road freight accounts for 53 percent of CO 2 emissions within global trade-related transport, a share expected to rise to 56 percent by 2050 if current trends continue. Road Freight Zero: Pathways to faster adoption of zero-emission trucks is a joint publication by the World Economic Forum and McKinsey that describes how countries can reach their emissions goals for road freight.
• With a market of more than $2.8 trillion worldwide, fragmented retail is poised to be transformed by “eB2B” players : portals and applications that replace the in-person sales model for small retailers and restaurants. By understanding the market structure and properly setting the scale and speed of change, companies can design an eB2B solution capable of disruption.
• Reaching net zero in the cement and construction value chain by 2050 will require the buildings and construction industry to decarbonize three times faster over the next 30 years versus the previous 30. At the COP26 Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, McKinsey brought together global property owners, contractors, materials suppliers, investors, equipment manufacturers, and disruptors to define the path forward. Among the takeaways: the industry can boost innovation by developing common standards and shared R&D resources.

What makes a CEO great? In this edition of Author Talks , McKinsey senior partners Carolyn Dewar, Scott Keller, and Vik Malhotra discuss their new book, CEO Excellence: The Six Mindsets That Distinguish the Best Leaders from the Rest (Scribner, March 2022). The authors interviewed 67 CEOs worldwide who met their criteria for excellence and diversity of both background and approach and identified keys to excellence that can provide lessons for any type of leader.

COVID-19: Briefing note #87, January 12, 2022

People are the fuel that will power the next industrial revolution..

Amid the Omicron surge, it’s perhaps poignant to note that all the advanced technology in the world means nothing without a population capable of adopting it and creating with it. COVID-19 vaccines are a good example of a technology that depends on people’s acceptance. This week, McKinsey explored how people in various industries and sectors relate to technology and the power of these interactions.

The McKinsey Talks Operations podcast brings together the CEOs of Flex, Protolabs, and Western Digital to discuss why the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be people powered . Digital manufacturing and production will change how the world makes goods but only if there is training and development to teach workers the skills to use these technologies. With the current labor mismatch in many countries, now is the time to further engage workers for a digitally enabled future.

With Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies in the hands of a workforce empowered with the skills needed to use them, an organization’s digital-transformation journey can move from aspiration to reality.

A pivot to telemedicine, remote work, and other technologies helped a leader in pediatric medicine manage the onslaught of COVID-19. Boston Children’s Hospital president and CEO Dr. Kevin Churchwell  calls for more innovation to cope with a sharp rise in children and young adults with behavioral- and mental-health issues. This generation of kids is being reared under physical distancing, lockdowns, and school closures. Churchwell believes that those presenting with mental-health issues would benefit from a tech-enabled continuum of care that encompasses the family, the primary-care pediatrician, the school system, the hospital, and the state.

Sarah Bond, Microsoft’s corporate vice president for game creator experience and ecosystem at Xbox , describes how recognizing that game playing is a fundamental human trait helped Microsoft create its “ubiquitous global gaming ecosystem.” Investments in cloud gaming, the Game Pass subscription service, and cross-platform play allow gamers to participate anywhere, anytime, on any device.

Tulsa Remote, a program that enabled Tulsa, Oklahoma, to attract 1,300 remote workers to the area, also prioritizes the human need for connection. In addition to giving relocators $10,000, the program provides membership to a local coworking space and assists in finding housing. Events, both virtual and in-person, are intended to mitigate the potential isolation of remote work. The initiative has attracted 50,000 applicants and is making a meaningful impression on the local economy.

In a typical organization, only a specific department and designated functions are accountable for quality in design, development, operations, and even postmarket activities. But in a smart-quality organization, everyone owns quality . Pharmaceutical and medtech companies can create value by redesigning key quality processes along these principles.

• As the move toward cleaner technologies progresses, the metals and mining sector will provide the raw materials required for the energy transition . The required pace of transition means that the availability of certain raw materials will need to scale up quickly—and, in certain cases, at volumes ten times or more than the current market size. We expect materials shortages, price fly-ups, and the need for technological innovation and substitutions.
• Stakeholder capitalism asks leaders to prioritize long-termism over short-term gain. In the latest episode of the Inside the Strategy Room podcast, senior partner Dame Vivian Hunt and senior adviser to McKinsey Bruce Simpson, CEO of the Stephen A. Schwarzman Foundation, discuss research and experience that strongly link stakeholder capitalism to traditional sources of value.

What makes a CEO great? In a recent edition of Author Talks , McKinsey senior partners Carolyn Dewar, Scott Keller, and Vik Malhotra discuss their new book, CEO Excellence: The Six Mindsets That Distinguish the Best Leaders from the Rest (Scribner, March 2022). The authors interviewed 67 CEOs worldwide who met their criteria for excellence and diversity of both background and approach and identified keys to excellence that can provide lessons for any type of leader.

Also in Author Talks , Tareq Azim, founder of Empower Gym, trainer of NFL greats, and creator of the Afghan Women’s Boxing Federation, talks about his new book, Empower: Conquering the Disease of Fear (Simon & Schuster, January 2022), which was coauthored with Seth Davis. Azim discusses how he created a place for women to practice the most male-dominated activity in the most male-dominated society of all time and how anyone can find inner strength.

COVID-19: Briefing note #86, January 5, 2022

Omicron demands renewed focus on familiar pandemic themes..

A new year is here, but COVID-19’s latest surge feels so very last year—not to mention the year before that. To kick off 2022, McKinsey looked at issues that many people thought would have started to resolve as the virus died down, but which instead require renewed engagement. Topping our list this week are employee burnout and hits to tourism. But there is positive news as well: reports on the state of mobility and pharmaceuticals reflect that pandemic-inspired changes are leading some industries in new directions.

Compared with nonparents, employed parents are more likely to miss days of work because they are experiencing symptoms of burnout  (exhibit). Companies need to understand what the compound pressures of employment and parenting during a pandemic are doing to these workers and consider a list of interventions to counteract their experience of burning the candle at both ends.

Women also are reporting higher-than-average rates of burnout. In a new episode of The McKinsey Podcast , senior partners Alexis Krivkovich and Lareina Yee discuss results from the recently released Women in the Workplace 2021  report. Forty-two percent of women report being burned out , a percentage that is higher than it was last year and higher than it is for men. Reasons include the fact that one in three women, and 60 percent of mothers with young children, spend five or more hours a day on housework and caregiving.

Early January is when many of us go on a diet and re-up at the gym. Here’s another tune-up option: take our “Can you turn attrition into attraction?” quiz  to test how good you are at combatting burnout, rewarding employees in meaningful ways, and strengthening bonds with your teams.

Our “ year in review ” recap of 2021 highlights themes that many were hoping to leave behind, including the pandemic and the Great Resignation, as well as aspirations, such as inclusive growth and digital transformation, that will only grow in importance. The “ year in images ” collection showcases the most evocative art we published last year, while the “ year in charts ” collection tells visual stories about virus cases and vaccination rates, diversity targets and employee experiences, and how sustainable growth might be attained.

Another consequence of COVID-19 is the devastation wrought on tourism markets worldwide. We looked at a key US market and found that the financial impact of the pandemic on New York City is six times that of the September 11 attacks, costing the city $1.2 billion in lost tourism-related tax revenue. New York can reinvigorate its tourism industry  by encouraging domestic travel and by reimagining business travel.

McKinsey reflected upon how the pandemic has affected mobility and where the sector is headed . Among the findings: half of the consumers in our recent Global COVID-19 Automotive & Mobility Consumer Survey stated a clear preference to travel less than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the forecasts: by 2035, in an accelerated scenario, the largest automotive markets in the world (that is, China, the European Union, and the United States) will be fully electric.

The pandemic has also reshaped the pharmaceuticals industry , and changes are still under way. We conducted a survey of senior executives in commercial roles at global pharma companies and found that more than 80 percent think that companies will fully embrace agile ways of working, and 66 percent believe that companies will move away from the traditional sales rep model because of restricted access, virtual interactions, and perceived low return on investment.

Here are some of this week’s other key findings from our research:

• Quantum computing is about a decade away from widespread commercial application. Less well known, but also important, are two related technologies that could become available much earlier: quantum sensing and quantum communication . We explore the market landscape for both, looking at opportunities, risks, and demand.
• Based on the results of our latest McKinsey Global Survey , we identify the different stages of a transformation’s life cycle  to understand where value is lost and what companies can do to preserve it. According to our analysis, three core actions are especially predictive of value capture.
• One way to accelerate decarbonization in the shipping sector  is to implement “green corridors”: specific trade routes between major port hubs where zero-emission solutions are supported. A new report, The next wave: Green corridors , probes the feasibility of two such selected corridors—with encouraging results.

Two books in our Author Talks series address the workplace issues so prevalent in our research from this past year. Joan C. Williams, distinguished professor of law and chair of the Hastings Foundation, discusses her latest book, Bias Interrupted: Creating Inclusion for Real and for Good (Harvard Business Review Press, November 2021). Jennifer Moss, Harvard Business Review contributor and nationally syndicated radio columnist, shares her recent work, The Burnout Epidemic: The Rise of Chronic Stress and How We Can Fix It (Harvard Business Review Press, September 2021).

For McKinsey’s 2021 perspectives on the business impact of COVID-19 , visit our archive of several dozen briefing notes published throughout the year.

Matt Craven is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley office;  Linda Liu is a partner in the New York office, where Matt Wilson is a senior partner; and  Mihir Mysore is a partner in the Houston office.

This article was edited by Mark Staples, an executive editor in the New York office.

Explore a career with us

Related articles.

COVID-19: Where we’ve been, where we are, and where we’re going

Ten lessons from the first two years of COVID-19

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

• View all journals
• Explore content
• About the journal
• Publish with us
• Sign up for alerts
• Published: 16 June 2020

COVID-19 impact on research, lessons learned from COVID-19 research, implications for pediatric research

• Debra L. Weiner 1 , 2 ,
• Vivek Balasubramaniam 3 ,
• Shetal I. Shah 4 &
• Joyce R. Javier 5 , 6

on behalf of the Pediatric Policy Council

Pediatric Research volume  88 ,  pages 148–150 ( 2020 ) Cite this article

146k Accesses

81 Citations

19 Altmetric

Metrics details

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented research worldwide. The impact on research in progress at the time of the pandemic, the importance and challenges of real-time pandemic research, and the importance of a pediatrician-scientist workforce are all highlighted by this epic pandemic. As we navigate through and beyond this pandemic, which will have a long-lasting impact on our world, including research and the biomedical research enterprise, it is important to recognize and address opportunities and strategies for, and challenges of research and strengthening the pediatrician-scientist workforce.

The first cases of what is now recognized as SARS-CoV-2 infection, termed COVID-19, were reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019 as cases of fatal pneumonia. By February 26, 2020, COVID-19 had been reported on all continents except Antarctica. As of May 4, 2020, 3.53 million cases and 248,169 deaths have been reported from 210 countries. 1

Impact of COVID-19 on ongoing research

The impact on research in progress prior to COVID-19 was rapid, dramatic, and no doubt will be long term. The pandemic curtailed most academic, industry, and government basic science and clinical research, or redirected research to COVID-19. Most clinical trials, except those testing life-saving therapies, have been paused, and most continuing trials are now closed to new enrollment. Ongoing clinical trials have been modified to enable home administration of treatment and virtual monitoring to minimize participant risk of COVID-19 infection, and to avoid diverting healthcare resources from pandemic response. In addition to short- and long-term patient impact, these research disruptions threaten the careers of physician-scientists, many of whom have had to shift efforts from research to patient care. To protect research in progress, as well as physician-scientist careers and the research workforce, ongoing support is critical. NIH ( https://grants.nih.gov/policy/natural-disasters/corona-virus.htm ), PCORI ( https://www.pcori.org/funding-opportunities/applicant-and-awardee-faqs-related-covid-19 ), and other funders acted swiftly to provide guidance on proposal submission and award management, and implement allowances that enable grant personnel to be paid and time lines to be relaxed. Research institutions have also implemented strategies to mitigate the long-term impact of research disruptions. Support throughout and beyond the pandemic to retain currently well-trained research personnel and research support teams, and to accommodate loss of research assets, including laboratory supplies and study participants, will be required to complete disrupted research and ultimately enable new research.

In the long term, it is likely that the pandemic will force reallocation of research dollars at the expense of research areas funded prior to the pandemic. It will be more important than ever for the pediatric research community to engage in discussion and decisions regarding prioritization of funding goals for dedicated pediatric research and meaningful inclusion of children in studies. The recently released 2020 National Institute of Child Health and Development (NICHD) strategic plan that engaged stakeholders, including scientists and patients, to shape the goals of the Institute, will require modification to best chart a path toward restoring normalcy within pediatric science.

COVID-19 research

This global pandemic once again highlights the importance of research, stable research infrastructure, and funding for public health emergency (PHE)/disaster preparedness, response, and resiliency. The stakes in this worldwide pandemic have never been higher as lives are lost, economies falter, and life has radically changed. Ultimate COVID-19 mitigation and crisis resolution is dependent on high-quality research aligned with top priority societal goals that yields trustworthy data and actionable information. While the highest priority goals are treatment and prevention, biomedical research also provides data critical to manage and restore economic and social welfare.

Scientific and technological knowledge and resources have never been greater and have been leveraged globally to perform COVID-19 research at warp speed. The number of studies related to COVID-19 increases daily, the scope and magnitude of engagement is stunning, and the extent of global collaboration unprecedented. On January 5, 2020, just weeks after the first cases of illness were reported, the genetic sequence, which identified the pathogen as a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, was released, providing information essential for identifying and developing treatments, vaccines, and diagnostics. As of May 3, 2020 1133 COVID-19 studies, including 148 related to hydroxychloroquine, 13 to remdesivir, 50 to vaccines, and 100 to diagnostic testing, were registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, and 980 different studies on the World Health Organization’s International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP), made possible, at least in part, by use of data libraries to inform development of antivirals, immunomodulators, antibody-based biologics, and vaccines. On April 7, 2020, the FDA launched the Coronavirus Treatment Acceleration Program (CTAP) ( https://www.fda.gov/drugs/coronavirus-covid-19-drugs/coronavirus-treatment-acceleration-program-ctap ). On April 17, 2020, NIH announced a partnership with industry to expedite vaccine development ( https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-launch-public-private-partnership-speed-covid-19-vaccine-treatment-options ). As of May 1, 2020, remdesivir (Gilead), granted FDA emergency use authorization, is the only approved therapeutic for COVID-19. 2

The pandemic has intensified research challenges. In a rush for data already thousands of manuscripts, news reports, and blogs have been published, but to date, there is limited scientifically robust data. Some studies do not meet published clinical trial standards, which now include FDA’s COVID-19-specific standards, 3 , 4 , 5 and/or are published without peer review. Misinformation from studies diverts resources from development and testing of more promising therapeutic candidates and has endangered lives. Ibuprofen, initially reported as unsafe for patients with COVID-19, resulted in a shortage of acetaminophen, endangering individuals for whom ibuprofen is contraindicated. Hydroxychloroquine initially reported as potentially effective for treatment of COVID-19 resulted in shortages for patients with autoimmune diseases. Remdesivir, in rigorous trials, showed decrease in duration of COVID-19, with greater effect given early. 6 Given the limited availability and safety data, the use outside clinical trials is currently approved only for severe disease. Vaccines typically take 10–15 years to develop. As of May 3, 2020, of nearly 100 vaccines in development, 8 are in trial. Several vaccines are projected to have emergency approval within 12–18 months, possibly as early as the end of the year, 7 still an eternity for this pandemic, yet too soon for long-term effectiveness and safety data. Antibody testing, necessary for diagnosis, therapeutics, and vaccine testing, has presented some of the greatest research challenges, including validation, timing, availability and prioritization of testing, interpretation of test results, and appropriate patient and societal actions based on results. 8 Relaxing physical distancing without data regarding test validity, duration, and strength of immunity to different strains of COVID-19 could have catastrophic results. Understanding population differences and disparities, which have been further exposed during this pandemic, is critical for response and long-term pandemic recovery. The “Equitable Data Collection and Disclosure on COVID-19 Act” calls for the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and other HHS (United States Department of Health & Human Services) agencies to publicly release racial and demographic information ( https://bass.house.gov/sites/bass.house.gov/files/Equitable%20Data%20Collection%20and%20Dislosure%20on%20COVID19%20Act_FINAL.pdf )

Trusted sources of up-to-date, easily accessible information must be identified (e.g., WHO https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/global-research-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov , CDC https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/index.html , and for children AAP (American Academy of Pediatrics) https://www.aappublications.org/cc/covid-19 ) and should comment on quality of data and provide strategies and crisis standards to guide clinical practice.

Long-term, lessons learned from research during this pandemic could benefit the research enterprise worldwide beyond the pandemic and during other PHE/disasters with strategies for balancing multiple novel approaches and high-quality, time-efficient, cost-effective research. This challenge, at least in part, can be met by appropriate study design, collaboration, patient registries, automated data collection, artificial intelligence, data sharing, and ongoing consideration of appropriate regulatory approval processes. In addition, research to develop and evaluate innovative strategies and technologies to improve access to care, management of health and disease, and quality, safety, and cost effectiveness of care could revolutionize healthcare and healthcare systems. During PHE/disasters, crisis standards for research should be considered along with ongoing and just-in-time PHE/disaster training for researchers willing to share information that could be leveraged at time of crisis. A dedicated funded core workforce of PHE/disaster researchers and funded infrastructure should be considered, potentially as a consortium of networks, that includes physician-scientists, basic scientists, social scientists, mental health providers, global health experts, epidemiologists, public health experts, engineers, information technology experts, economists and educators to strategize, consult, review, monitor, interpret studies, guide appropriate clinical use of data, and inform decisions regarding effective use of resources for PHE/disaster research.

Differences between adult and pediatric COVID-19, the need for pediatric research

As reported by the CDC, from February 12 to April 2, 2020, of 149,760 cases of confirmed COVID-19 in the United States, 2572 (1.7%) were children aged <18 years, similar to published rates in China. 9 Severe illness has been rare. Of 749 children for whom hospitalization data is available, 147 (20%) required hospitalization (5.7% of total children), and 15 of 147 required ICU care (2.0%, 0.58% of total). Of the 95 children aged <1 year, 59 (62%) were hospitalized, and 5 (5.3%) required ICU admission. Among children there were three deaths. Despite children being relatively spared by COVID-19, spread of disease by children, and consequences for their health and pediatric healthcare are potentially profound with immediate and long-term impact on all of society.

We have long been aware of the importance and value of pediatric research on children, and society. COVID-19 is no exception and highlights the imperative need for a pediatrician-scientist workforce. Understanding differences in epidemiology, susceptibility, manifestations, and treatment of COVID-19 in children can provide insights into this pathogen, pathogen–host interactions, pathophysiology, and host response for the entire population. Pediatric clinical registries of COVID-infected, COVID-exposed children can provide data and specimens for immediate and long-term research. Of the 1133 COVID-19 studies on ClinicalTrials.gov, 202 include children aged ≤17 years. Sixty-one of the 681 interventional trials include children. With less diagnostic testing and less pediatric research, we not only endanger children, but also adults by not identifying infected children and limiting spread by children.

Pediatric considerations and challenges related to treatment and vaccine research for COVID-19 include appropriate dosing, pediatric formulation, and pediatric specific short- and long-term effectiveness and safety. Typically, initial clinical trials exclude children until safety has been established in adults. But with time of the essence, deferring pediatric research risks the health of children, particularly those with special needs. Considerations specific to pregnant women, fetuses, and neonates must also be addressed. Childhood mental health in this demographic, already struggling with a mental health pandemic prior to COVID-19, is now further challenged by social disruption, food and housing insecurity, loss of loved ones, isolation from friends and family, and exposure to an infodemic of pandemic-related information. Interestingly, at present mental health visits along with all visits to pediatric emergency departments across the United States are dramatically decreased. Understanding factors that mitigate and worsen psychiatric symptoms should be a focus of research, and ideally will result in strategies for prevention and management in the long term, including beyond this pandemic. Social well-being of children must also be studied. Experts note that the pandemic is a perfect storm for child maltreatment given that vulnerable families are now socially isolated, facing unemployment, and stressed, and that children are not under the watch of mandated reporters in schools, daycare, and primary care. 10 Many states have observed a decrease in child abuse reports and an increase in severity of emergency department abuse cases. In the short term and long term, it will be important to study the impact of access to care, missed care, and disrupted education during COVID-19 on physical and cognitive development.

Training and supporting pediatrician-scientists, such as through NIH physician-scientist research training and career development programs ( https://researchtraining.nih.gov/infographics/physician-scientist ) at all stages of career, as well as fostering research for fellows, residents, and medical students willing to dedicate their research career to, or at least understand implications of their research for, PHE/disasters is important for having an ongoing, as well as a just-in-time surge pediatric-focused PHE/disaster workforce. In addition to including pediatric experts in collaborations and consortiums with broader population focus, consideration should be given to pediatric-focused multi-institutional, academic, industry, and/or government consortiums with infrastructure and ongoing funding for virtual training programs, research teams, and multidisciplinary oversight.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on research and research in response to the pandemic once again highlights the importance of research, challenges of research particularly during PHE/disasters, and opportunities and resources for making research more efficient and cost effective. New paradigms and models for research will hopefully emerge from this pandemic. The importance of building sustained PHE/disaster research infrastructure and a research workforce that includes training and funding for pediatrician-scientists and integrates the pediatrician research workforce into high-quality research across demographics, supports the pediatrician-scientist workforce and pipeline, and benefits society.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. Covid-19 Case Tracker. Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (2020).

US Food and Drug Administration. Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: FDA issues emergency use authorization for potential COVID-19 treatment. FDA News Release . https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-potential-covid-19-treatment (2020).

Evans, S. R. Fundamentals of clinical trial design. J. Exp. Stroke Transl. Med. 3 , 19–27 (2010).

Article   Google Scholar  

Antman, E. M. & Bierer, B. E. Standards for clinical research: keeping pace with the technology of the future. Circulation 133 , 823–825 (2016).

Food and Drug Administration. FDA guidance on conduct of clinical trials of medical products during COVID-19 public health emergency. Guidance for Industry, Investigators and Institutional Review Boards . https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/fda-guidance-conduct-clinical-trials-medical-products-during-covid-19-public-health-emergency (2020).

National Institutes of Health. NIH clinical trials shows remdesivir accelerates recovery from advanced COVID-19. NIH New Releases . https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19#.XrIX75ZmQeQ.email (2020).

Radcliffe, S. Here’s exactly where we are with vaccines and treatments for COVID-19. Health News . https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-exactly-where-were-at-with-vaccines-and-treatments-for-covid-19 (2020).

Abbasi, J. The promise and peril of antibody testing for COVID-19. JAMA . https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.6170 (2020).

CDC COVID-19 Response Team. Coronavirus disease 2019 in children—United States, February 12–April 2, 2020. Morb. Mortal Wkly Rep . 69 , 422–426 (2020).

Agarwal, N. Opinion: the coronavirus could cause a child abuse epidemic. The New York Times . https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opinion/coronavirus-child-abuse.html (2020).

Download references

Author information

Authors and affiliations.

Department of Pediatrics, Division of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

Debra L. Weiner

Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

Department of Pediatrics, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI, USA

Vivek Balasubramaniam

Department of Pediatrics and Division of Neonatology, Maria Fareri Children’s Hospital at Westchester Medical Center, New York Medical College, Valhalla, NY, USA

Shetal I. Shah

Division of General Pediatrics, Children’s Hospital Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA

Joyce R. Javier

Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors made substantial contributions to conception and design, data acquisition and interpretation, drafting the manuscript, and providing critical revisions. All authors approve this final version of the manuscript.

Pediatric Policy Council

Scott C. Denne, MD, Chair, Pediatric Policy Council; Mona Patel, MD, Representative to the PPC from the Academic Pediatric Association; Jean L. Raphael, MD, MPH, Representative to the PPC from the Academic Pediatric Association; Jonathan Davis, MD, Representative to the PPC from the American Pediatric Society; DeWayne Pursley, MD, MPH, Representative to the PPC from the American Pediatric Society; Tina Cheng, MD, MPH, Representative to the PPC from the Association of Medical School Pediatric Department Chairs; Michael Artman, MD, Representative to the PPC from the Association of Medical School Pediatric Department Chairs; Shetal Shah, MD, Representative to the PPC from the Society for Pediatric Research; Joyce Javier, MD, MPH, MS, Representative to the PPC from the Society for Pediatric Research.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Debra L. Weiner .

Ethics declarations

Competing interests.

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Members of the Pediatric Policy Council are listed below Author contributions.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article.

Weiner, D.L., Balasubramaniam, V., Shah, S.I. et al. COVID-19 impact on research, lessons learned from COVID-19 research, implications for pediatric research. Pediatr Res 88 , 148–150 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41390-020-1006-3

Download citation

Received : 07 May 2020

Accepted : 21 May 2020

Published : 16 June 2020

Issue Date : August 2020

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41390-020-1006-3

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

Quick links

• Explore articles by subject
• Guide to authors
• Editorial policies

An official website of the United States government

The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

The site is secure. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

• Publications
• Account settings

Preview improvements coming to the PMC website in October 2024. Learn More or Try it out now .

• Advanced Search
• Journal List
• Elsevier - PMC COVID-19 Collection

COVID-19 and digitalization: The great acceleration

Joseph amankwah-amoah.

a Kent Business School, University of Kent, Chatham, Kent ME4 4TE, Canada

Zaheer Khan

b University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK

c School of Marketing and Communication, University of Vaasa, Finland

Geoffrey Wood

d Western University, Ontario, Canada

Gary Knight

e Willamette University, Salem, USA

f University of Aberdeen, UK

Inspired by burgeoning scholarly interest in the role of digitalization in the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic is driving or constraining the digitalization of businesses around the globe. We contend that COVID‐19 is “ the great accelerator ” in fast-tracking the existing global trend towards embracing modern emerging technologies ushering in transformations in lifestyle, work patterns, and business strategies. Thus, COVID-19 has evolved to be a kind of “ catalyst ” for the adoption and increasing use of digitalization in work organization and the office, alongside presenting foreseen and unforeseen opportunities, challenges, and costs—leading to negative and positive feedback loops. In this article, we develop and advance a conceptual model by linking the different forces for and against digitalization in response to the pandemic. Our analysis indicates that adoption of emerging technologies may be hindered by vested external interests, nostalgia, and employer opportunism, as well as negative effects on employee well-being that undermine productivity, work–life balance, and future of work. Whilst digitalization may bring new opportunities, the process imparts risks that may be hard to mitigate or prepare for. Finally, we draw out the wider theoretical and practical implications of our analysis.

1. Introduction

In recent times, it has become increasingly evident that the COVID-19 pandemic has not only fundamentally altered the modus operandi of many organizations but has also precipitated the failure of many businesses around the globe (see Amankwah-Amoah, Khan, & Wood, 2020 ). The range of measures including local and national lockdowns, social distancing measures, government-led border closures, and quarantines have forced many firms to adapt their business models at short notice (see Sostero, Milasi, Hurley, Fernández-Macías, & Bisello, 2020 ). Broadly speaking, this arose on two domains: externally—how firms interface with customers, suppliers, and other stakeholders; and internally—how firms manage employees and the employer–employee relationships ( Sostero et al., 2020 ). COVID-19 has so far resulted in more than 190 million coronavirus cases and more than 4,101,340 fatalities worldwide, with new strains of virus on the rise ( World Health Organization, 2020 , Worldometers, 2021 ), thus significantly hampering global economic activities.

Typified by devastating impacts on livelihoods and business performance, the COVID-19 pandemic also highlights the vast digital divide between the poor and rich, between rural and urban areas, and between advanced and developing economies ( Beaunoyer, Dupéré, & Guitton, 2020 ). One likely consequence of COVID-19 is the accelerated trend towards digitalization of business models coupled with the shift of commercial activities from predominantly offline and brick-and-mortar outlets to online outlets. However, with this has come the question as to whether this will benefit many firms or just a few. In other words, whether traditional firms will be able to recover lost ground through infusing greater digitalization into their business models, or whether this will simply extend the role of the existing internet-enabled platform oligopolies. The pandemic has catapulted the need for change across a host of industries, in addition to fundamentally changing consumer behavior, from store visits to buying online; the latter enables much more information to be gathered on consumers, further undermining the position of vendors lacking such detailed insider information and analytics capabilities. At the same time the process has been contested, as exemplified by the UK government’s August 2020 ‘back to work (i.e., the physical office) or lose your job’ campaign ( Faragher, 2020 ), which seemed to imply that working from home did not constitute ‘real work’ and that job security depended on presenteeism. More conservative employers might continue to view homeworking, from a pre-COVID perspective, as something that is sub-optimal, best suited to only a few elite workers, and hence may desire to turn back the digital clock rapidly ( Andersen & Kelliher, 2020 ).

Furthermore, whilst potentially enhancing flexibility for employers and employees, and reducing wasted time and energy on long commutes, the digitalization of work has raised concerns about trust, new forms of worker electronic surveillance, and the colonization of leisure time ( Hodder, 2020 ). Anchored in the ongoing discourse on COVID-19 in the mass media and the scholarly community is the need for better understanding of firm behaviors about the supposedly “Black swan event” ( Sheng et al., 2020 , Spicer, 2020 )—a global pandemic was widely predicted, but nonetheless organizations were largely ill-prepared to deal with it ( Phan & Wood, 2020 ).

Despite the importance and effects of digitalization, coupled with emergent research on implications of the pandemic ( Seetharaman, 2020 ) and the proliferation of accounts on COVID-19′s likely impact, scholarly work exploring the challenges confronting firms and their workers in transitioning to digital technology in the wake of this new environmental challenge is only just emerging. Psychological barriers to the adoption of emerging technologies are hampering the efforts of firms and their decision-makers to embrace digital platforms. Although the wider forces for and against digitalization in the wake of COVID-19 warrant additional scholarly attention, so far very little attention has been directed towards this subject. With this in mind, the central aim of this paper is to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic is driving or constraining digitalization of businesses. Much of the literature on digitalization can be readily divided into optimistic and pessimistic accounts; this study seeks to take account of a wide range of factors, informed by a cross-section of the existing knowledge base, to more fully explore the interplay between risks and opportunities. As with any new technology, digitalization brings with it foreseen and unforeseen consequences; we can only deal with the former, but the latter are likely to amplify both positive and negative feedback loops. Hence, with digitalization, the stakes are very high; in this study we seek to provide insights as to what is in play for firms and their key stakeholders as the forces for digitalization gather momentum.

Accordingly, we provide insights into the challenges and opportunities of the pandemic for firms. First, although digitalization per se is not new to scholars and practicing managers ( Ritter & Pedersen, 2020 ), the potential effects of the pandemic in halting or accelerating the process of adoption of emerging technologies remains underexplored. Our contention is that the COVID-19 pandemic can be viewed as the great acceleration ( Bradley et al., 2020 , Lozada, 2020 ) in a sense of accelerating the existing global trend towards embracing new technologies and digital platforms to facilitate remote working and online shopping. In this vein, we develop a conceptual model in order to enhance our understanding of COVID-19′s effects on digitalization, focusing on the intra-organizational and human dimensions. By examining key factors, this study aims to advance the literature on the COVID-19 pandemic discourse in management and information systems ( Sostero et al., 2020 , Verma and Gustafsson, 2020 , Zheng and Walsham, 2021 ) by shedding light on the drivers for change and resistance towards change for digitalization. Second, we contribute to the growing literature on digitalization ( Saarikko, Westergren, & Blomquist, 2020 ) by providing insights into how digitalization can expose organizations to new forms of business risks including hacking and cyberattack. In addition, by examining digitalization in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, our study provides a more nuanced understanding of key barriers to digitalization of businesses. Thus, we illuminate understanding of the digitalization forces and processes, which can have far reaching implications for small and large businesses. Finally, we draw out the policy implications; the latter takes account of the dynamic tensions embodied in the digitalization process, and the limits and risks of state-led digital industrial policies. In so doing, the paper offers a more balanced perspective by highlighting both the forces for and against digitalization in the wake of COVID-19.

The rest of the article is organized as follows. After presenting a review on digitalization, business environment and innovation, we then present our conceptualization and analysis. We shed light on the linkages between COVID-19 and digitalization before outlining the implications of the analysis.

2. Digitalization, business environment and innovation: An overview

Digitization refers to the technical process of converting analog or traditional paper-based tasks or processes to digital form so that computers can help in accessing, storing, and transmitting information ( Bloomberg, 2018 , Brennen and Kreiss, 2016 ). By contrast, digitalization refers to “the sociotechnical process of leveraging digitized products or systems to develop new organizational procedures, business models, or commercial offerings” ( Saarikko, Westergren, & Blomquist, 2020, p. 4 ). Thus, digitalization denotes partially or fully converting elements of firm value-chain activities and business models to digital platforms via emergent digital technologies such as the mobile and visual connectivity, cloud computing, robotics, smart phones, artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, additive manufacturing, 3-D printing, and Internet of Things (IoT) ( Soto-Acosta, 2020 ). Such transformation can arise as part of integrated digital platforms, as innovative ways of doing business. Digital technologies such as websites, social media, smartphones, content-sharing platforms, e-procurement systems, blockchain, automation technology, robotics, and wearable devices have helped pave the way for businesses to engage effectively with innovation and R&D activities and exploit new market opportunities ( Lupton, 2020 , Vural et al., 2020 ). However, firms have not yet realized the full potential of digitalization, and the COVID-19 pandemic is driving the adoption of emergent technologies.

Previous research has shown that improved business process competence, new forms of cooperation and customer engagement, and a faster pace of innovation are factors driving digitalization ( Adomako et al., 2021 , Rachinger et al., 2019 ). Seizing opportunities in the marketplace entails initiating and incorporating greater use of digital technology in the ways that firms undertake value-adding activities. Business-model innovation refers to “the search for new logics of the firm and new ways to create and capture value for its stakeholders; it focuses primarily on finding new ways to generate revenues and define value propositions for customers, suppliers, and partners” ( Casadesus-Masanell & Zhu, 2013 , p. 464; Baldassarre, Calabretta, Bocken, & Jaskiewicz, 2017 ). Digitalization also facilitates greater ease of doing business in firms’ external activities and may equip organizations to improve and enhance overall competitiveness ( Ritter & Pedersen, 2020 ). Less critical accounts have suggested that digitalization somehow makes businesses more ‘excellent’ ( Ross, 2017 ), typifying the view that it represents an unabashed good, yet, like all new technologies, it may present both foreseen (e.g., digital surveillance) and unforeseen consequences down the line. Prior scholarly work on digitalization focused largely on altering organizational processes and developing effective links between the organization and its stakeholders ( Nambisan, Lyytinen, Majchrzak, & Song, 2017 ); this conceptual paper explores further how exogenous (or semi-exogenous) events might drive further digitalization, with particular focus on the internal human dimensions.

The environment in which businesses operate may be located on a scale between benign and hostile ( Kreiser et al., 2020 ). Non-hostile or benign environments are environmental conditions that “provide a safe setting for business operations due to their overall level of munificence and richness in investment and marketing opportunities” ( Covin & Slevin, 1989, p. 75 ). Hostile environments reflect “precarious industry settings, intense competition, harsh, overwhelming business climates, and the relative lack of exploitable opportunities” ( Covin & Slevin, 1989, p. 75 ), which can alter the life chances of the organization. In benign environments, firms’ activities are typified by opportunities for company growth ( Covin & Slevin, 1989 ) and growing complacency. Indeed, abundant environmental opportunities can undermine the erstwhile drive for innovation and any desire to embrace digitalization. Hostile environments, by contrast, are characterized by rapidly changing events and substantial competitive rivalry among firms, which typically are unfavorable to business operations. Firms may experience a limited capacity to predict and manage “Black swan” events ( Higgins, 2013 ), whether due to limited resources or capabilities ( Phan & Wood, 2020 ). As environments become more hostile, firms may become more entrepreneurial, but only to a point after which the severity of challenges forces them to retreat into a largely defensive mode ( Kreiser et al., 2020 ). Recent research has shown such unfavorable environmental factors might include natural disasters, pandemics, price wars, fluctuations in commodity prices, depression or recessions, or radical departures in politics and government policy ( Phan & Wood, 2020 ). The two poles of extremely low business risks (benign environment) and extremely high business risks (volatile environment) are depicted in Fig. 1 . The volatile period ushered in by COVID-19 denotes a shift to a more hostile environment in which businesses are operating.

Levels of risk in the environment and digitalization.

To illuminate the potential effects of business risk on the race towards digitalization, we contend that, as risk rises, firms will tend to embrace greater digitalization. This will be true especially when failure is imminent, or to avert closure either in response to government restrictions or in direct reaction to the effects of the pandemic. Firms might also imitate their competitors and embrace emerging technologies. During more tranquil times organizations will face relatively little pressure to embrace digitalization, unless enticed by the exigencies of competition. As a world historic event, COVID-19 is particularly likely to accelerate the digitalization process as depicted in Fig. 1 ; this reflects its highly contagious nature, and the extent to which organizations can safely carry out their activities depends, in most instances, on effective usage of digital technologies.

3. Opportunities and challenges of digitalization

Digitalizing at least part of the organizational and business model is increasingly ubiquitous and holds the prospect that firms can accrue efficiency gains through even modest changes ( Björkdahl, 2020 ). An early advance was basic automated document management systems, which paved the way for many organizations and individuals to search for and find documents with speed and greater accuracy, thereby eliminating various laborious tasks associated with finding documents ( Smith, 2019 ). More advanced emerging technologies offered an effective mechanism for organizations to link teams and foster closer working relationships between headquarters and subsidiaries ( Autio et al., 2021 ). Firms have gained new opportunities for digitalization as the cost of communications, storing information, and computers/devices has shrunk, whilst the capabilities of the latter have exponentially increased.

3.1. Drivers of digitalization

3.1.1. shift to remote working and remote operations.

Remote working denotes performing the activities of the employing organization from outside the office at a remote virtual location ( Wang et al., 2021 ). Although many of the technologies for enabling remote working have existed for at least a decade, most firms choose not to adopt them ( Rosalsky, 2020a ), or focus on a few favored workers ( Andersen & Kelliher, 2020 ). The latter would reflect concerns regarding a possible loss of control, not trusting workers to exercise their autonomy responsibly ( Miele & Tirabeni, 2020 ), or a reluctance to cast aside proven solutions of the past. Yet whatever the level of managerial reluctance, the pandemic has forced large numbers of firms to embrace emergent technologies to shift to remote working and remote skills formation activities. In responding to travel restrictions and quarantine measures around the globe, remote working has become acceptable to multinationals that previously had been wedded to industrial-scale business travel ( Wilson & Chen, 2020 ). Following the global crisis caused by the current pandemic, many businesses transitioned to remote working. For instance, during the pandemic, around 90% of Morgan Stanley’s 60,000 employees worked remotely from home, in sharp contrast to previous norms (Morgan Stanley, 2020 ). Indeed, “many organizations have shifted to remote working models almost overnight. A remote-first setup allows companies to mobilize global expertise instantly … and respond to customer inquiries more rapidly by providing everything from product information to sales and after-sales support digitally” ( Baig et al., 2020, p. 2 ).

As virtual offices are not limited by space, firms have access to unlimited new labor pools across the globe to recruit talent ( Rosalsky, 2020a ), and can bypass onerous national visa regimes. Twitter, Facebook, and other firms that extensively leverage digital technologies now allow workers to “become roving nomads forever”, thereby creating a platform to recruit top talent and assess employees on performance rather than mere “clocking hours” ( Rosalsky, 2020a, p . nd; Hodder, 2020 ). Work that requires frequent video meetings and/or large-scale data transmission relies on access to high-speed internet connections at home, which is often lacking in developing economies.

According to Dingel and Neiman (2020) , around 37% of jobs in the United States (US) can be performed full time from home. Indeed, around 4% of all American employees worked “at least half the time” from home, suggesting the potential to expand remote working not just in the US but in other countries as well ( Dingel and Neiman, 2020 , Rosalsky, 2020b ). Another driver for remote work is commuting to work, which is time consuming, physically tiring, and costly, with consequences for the natural environment. Commuting could be greatly reduced if working in the physical office were limited to essential activities ( Rosalsky, 2020a ). Relatedly, the magnitude of office space used by businesses could be reduced, cutting costs associated with commercial real estate, especially if offices are located in major and expensive cities ( Rosalsky, 2020a , Rosalsky, 2020b ). Firms are increasingly developing and utilizing videoconferencing facilities and remote collaboration enabling tools to continuously improve remote-working processes ( Cortez, 2020 ). Broadly, leveraging digital platforms can reduce operational costs, bureaucracy, and costs associated with commuting and business travel, resulting in substantial savings for employees ( Hensher et al., 2021 ). Finally, digitalization has implications for reducing firms’ environmental footprints ( Elliott et al., 2020 ).

At the same time, whilst the gains may be immediate and visible, there may be costs on organizations, employees, and other actors. From an organizational perspective, it is not clear as to whether the loss of subtle nonverbal means of communication may diminish internal efficiency, result in more misunderstandings, and reduce empathy ( Kniffin et al., 2021 ). Employees may open themselves to new forms of intrusive digital surveillance, which, even if not widely deployed, can lead to increased suspicion as to employer motives and behavior ( Charbonneau & Doberstein, 2020 ). A reduced ability to monitor worker productivity arising from the digitalization of work directly might drive firms to demand greater output from employees ( Hodder, 2020 ). Digitalization can disrupt the work–life balance, whilst the long-term health effects of ever greater screen time remain unknown ( Hjálmsdóttir and Bjarnadóttir, 2020 , Conroy et al., 2020 ). There is also the gender dimension – women, especially of childbearing age, often must balance the demands of full-time work and managing the home, placing them under greater stress than, say, middle-aged men with grown children ( Hjálmsdóttir and Bjarnadóttir, 2020 , Yerkes et al., 2020 ). In general, unintended consequences of digitalizing work may pose long-term costs for organizations in terms of diminished productivity and health-related absenteeism. Finally, satellite industries that support traditional office work, ranging from transport to catering to office property leasing, will likely decline in the wake of rising remote work and accompanying benefits of work–life balance.

3.1.2. Paperless offices and paperless organizations

For decades, businesses large and small grew and became accustomed to paperwork and physical workspace. Today, however, businesses increasingly adopt new and emerging digital technologies to enhance operational efficiency and effectiveness. Digitally oriented value-chain activities have become essential for many businesses seeking not only to minimize negative effects of COVID-19 but also to enhance competitive advantages and long-term sustainability. Although the notion of the paperless office has gained traction since the late 1960s ( The Economist, 2002 ), the pandemic has increased the urgency of digitalization, appealing to a wide range of organizations. Tools for digitalization and paperless organization such as laptops, high-capacity storage devices, tablets, smartphones, and high-speed wireless broadband are increasingly available to businesses ( Hudson, 2012 ). By going digital, firms reduce dependence on paper documents and provide greater opportunities for all employees to access information without incurring costs associated with printing or managing physical paper flows.

Although paper-based work is a feature of traditional offices, this has been altered by the availability of alternatives ( Hudson, 2012 ). Technological advances have facilitated increased reliance on digital methods, such as electronic scanning of documents and maintaining digital records through storing of images on the cloud. Accompanying digitalization is reduced usage of copiers and printers, as well as less need for repair and maintenance of such equipment, and of papers and related supplies. In addition, “the time required by employees to complete tasks will decrease with automation, which in turn means you need to allocate less hours to the tasks you have automated” ( Smith, 2019, p . nd). Partial or full digitalization of business operations has become a necessity for many businesses in the new digital economy. By shifting from the physical paper to a digitally-oriented approach for storing, disseminating, and processing information, firms can improve processes, and reduce the costs associated with administration and processing ( Smith, 2019 ). Indeed, “ paper and paper-based processes are also slow and inefficient compared to automated digital systems, it’s more difficult to capture data from physical documents and reports on paper-based processes are manual and slow to generate … office workers spend an hour every day searching for documents, which wastes time and money, and reduces productivity ” ( Smith, 2019, p . nd). It also has the potential to eliminate bottlenecks in routines and processes in paper offices that often curtail innovation.

Besides the cost savings, digitalization also has the potential to reduce human errors linked to multiple administrative and manual routines and tasks ( Smith, 2019 ). Buoyed by technological improvements, there are now opportunities for organizations to not only have paperless offices but also become paperless organizations as a means of saving costs and reducing the cumbersome processes that often stifle innovation activities. Table 1 summarizes the COVID effects as drivers of digitalization. Motivated by growing opportunities inherent in digitalization in terms of the elimination of paper-based bureaucratic processes and associated costs, many small and medium enterprises (SMEs) employed digital devices to man aspects of their business. Some of the drivers for the adoption of new technology encompass the relative advantages of the technology relative to the alternatives such as quality and cost, as well as compatibility with existing products and processes of the focal organization ( Lanzolla & Suarez, 2012 ). As the pressure to shift towards digitalization intensifies, there are also constraints in curtailing the shift. Indeed, adopting electronic reporting procedures might be a modest shift for businesses towards digitalization but could have an impact on improving existing processes.

COVID-19: A driver of digitalization.

Data sources : synthesized by the authors from: Rachinger et al., 2019 , Appiah et al., 2020 , JoyBusiness, 2020 .

3.2. Barriers to digitalization

Our analysis thus far highlights that the pandemic can be construed as an opportunity for organizations to improve manual workflows and adopt digitalization. Table 2 summarizes the different factors related to technology infrastructure, institutional constraints, security and privacy concerns, and organizational-level constraints. While firms may identify various functions and processes that can be performed electronically, digitalization may be limited due to resource constraints, bureaucratic processes, and insufficient commitment from senior management. Administrative heritage is a feature of long-established businesses ( Miller and Friesen, 1984 , Collis, 1991 ). Well-established firms must abandon long-standing procedures and routines before new, innovative routines can be adopted. Abandoning embedded routines and established practices can be relatively challenging, especially in older, established firms, because new knowledge that leads to novel routines tends to conflict with existing operations and tried-and-true models ( Barkema and Vermeulen, 1998 , Autio et al., 2000 ). Complex or systematized routines can be costly to modify and limit firms’ ability to innovate ( Utterback & Abernathy, 1975 ). Previous investments and organizational routines can hinder future behavior and the capacity to adopt new methods (see Leonard‐Barton, 1992 ; Pisano, & Teece, 1994 ). Bounded rationality and embedded “hierarchies” ( Grant, 1991 ) of routines may restrict the ability to adopt new technological solutions. Firms will tend to emphasize incremental, rather than disruptive innovations, resulting in the development of capabilities and routines more closely related to existing knowledge and routines. Key pathways are described in Fig. 2 .

Classification of post-COVID 19 barriers to digitalization.

Data sources: synthesized by the authors from: Appiah et al., 2020 , Amankwah-Amoah et al., 2021 , Vural et al., 2020 , Ebrahim and Irani, 2005 , Effah, 2016 , Effah and Nuhu, 2017 , Rachinger et al., 2019 , Peachey, 2019 , Peachey, 2020 , Lokuge et al., 2019 .

A paradigm for COVID-19 and digitalization.

In recent years, many organizations have sought to move the basic information technology infrastructure from the “traditional on-premises deployment to the cloud”, thereby ushering in a new era of taking advantage of technological advancements ( Retana et al., 2018, p. 961 ). Nevertheless, old and large organizations might be underpinned by old routines, values, processes, and routines that might have taken years to take hold, develop, and be locked in ( Christensen, Anthony, & Roth, 2004 ).

Another major barrier to digitalization concerns the long-held notion by some that digital and video platforms are suboptimal relative to the physical office for facilitating the social bonding, managerial involvement, mentoring, and chance encounters among colleagues that lead to novel, innovative interpretations, and solutions ( Rosalsky, 2020a ). On its own, the physical office environment is very useful and provides a fertile ground for organizational innovation and development. Despite the proliferation of high-speed internet and apps such as Skype, Zoom, Slack, and Dropbox, the percentage of people regularly working remotely increased very little in the decade from 2005 ( Rosalsky, 2020b ). Historical evidence of past pandemics, dating back to the waves of black plague in the Middle Ages, suggests that there was much hope of better futures in their aftermath, but owing to a range of vested interests – and the desire for the comfort of familiarity – there was a drive to return to “life as normal” ( Varlık, 2020) ), even if there were structural effects on wages and the relative power of labour. There is a very wide body of literature that confirms that ‘nostalgia’ and the desire for the comforts of an even partially imagined past can wield powerful effects on present-day choices ( Atia & Davies, 2010 ).

s noted above, digital working can raise concerns as to greater surveillance, insecurity, and challenges to work–life balance; in turn, concerns as to the long-term wellbeing and associated productivity effects may deter its adoption, as might hidden forms of employee resistance. There is also a wider security dimension. All electronic communication is open to hacking and there have been numerous high-profile security breaches, even among those practicing high levels of security. An even greater threat is that of internet outages; the latter are inevitable, and often due to opaque causes ( Aceto et al., 2018 ). In other words, digitalization imparts high-probability risks of uncertain scope and scale, the latter with consequences potentially beyond the realm of human past experience.

Finally, the erratic and, indeed, chaotic decision-making and frequent policy shifts that characterized the Johnson and Trump governments’ response to COVID-19, in the UK and the US respectively, may do little to encourage substantial innovation and adoption of new technologies following resolution of the pandemic ( Asimakopoulou et al., 2021 ). There are also more structural measures at play. For example, in the UK, national institutions have driven a specific pattern of economic activity that is particularly supportive of rentier interests ( Standing, 2016 ). Central to the latter has been high levels of speculation on property, both commercial and residential (ibid.); homeworking challenges the rental market in large cities, and there is little doubt that the abovementioned UK government’s back-to-work campaign of August 2020 was motivated by concern for the wellbeing of such interests. There is little doubt that as the pandemic diminishes there will be a wide range of institutional pressures brought to bear to support a return to the status quo ante of resuming office-based work. In the following sections we outline other barriers to digitalization.

3.2.1. The digital divide

A major challenge pertains to access to digital technologies. Even in the wake of the COVID pressure to embrace digital technologies ( Amankwah-Amoah, 2020a , Amankwah-Amoah, 2020b , Amankwah-Amoah, 2021 ), many entrepreneurs generally face human resource and capability impediments encompassing technical skills and digital literacy, which can curtail the digitalization (see also Effah & Nuhu, 2017 ). It has been suggested that COVID-19 revealed the consequences of rising inequality in many developed nations ( MacLeavy, 2020 ), as well as the real digital divide within and between developed and developing economies ( African Business Magazine, 2020 ). Indeed, quarantine measures, social distancing laws, and stay-at-home restrictions adopted by governments in response to the pandemic were implemented in the absence of robust internet infrastructure in many developing economic and rural areas, and resulted in business failure, financial hardship, and other calamities ( African Business Magazine, 2020 ). Many developing economies lack the institutions and infrastructure necessary to support digitalization, teleworking, and e-commerce.

One of the outcomes of the pandemic is the exposure of the digital divide in countries and its effects in exacerbating the inequalities between both the poor and rich, and urban and rural areas (see Yang, 2020 ). In many areas around the globe, small businesses often lack access to reliable wireless broadband or high-speed internet service to manage aspects of their operations. It is worth noting that many small-business owners in the developing world have opted to operate from their phones with internet services. Although access to new technologies and the internet continue to improve across the globe, all this limits the opportunities available to many businesses. Coupled with an underserved market for high-speed technologies, poverty also curtails access to opportunities for digital working. Even within developed economies, there are digital divides between major cities and rural areas where access and internet infrastructure development differ, thereby shaping new-business formation opportunities ( Haight et al., 2014 ). Accompanying the pandemic is also the shift away from brick-and-mortar stores to online stores leading to underutilization of physical office spaces. Indeed, “the shift to remote work over the past few months—in some cases marking a permanent change—has refocused the sights of many corporate and private-equity buyers to acquisitions that help build capabilities in digital communications and e-commerce” ( Cortez, 2020, p . nd).

4. Discussion and implications

Although the COVID-19 pandemic offers copious opportunities for firms to embrace digitalization, most have responded unevenly and in a manner that brings with it paradoxes and contradictions. Inspired by the scholarly interest in digitalization, the purpose of this paper was to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic is driving or constraining digitalization of businesses. In examining the issue, a conceptual model was advanced, linking the different forces for and against digitalization in the face of the pandemic, as depicted in Fig. 3 . We contended that COVID-19 is “the great accelerator” in fast-tracking the existing global trend towards embracing modern technologies. Hence, COVID-19 may well have served as a “catalyst” in advancing the adoption and increasing use of various technologies such as video telephony, 5G digital networks, Internet of Things, cloud computing, machine learning, and artificial intelligence, but this process has been contested and the outcomes remain uncertain.

A “unified” framework of competing forces from COVID-19.

Moreover, we contended that some kind of “psychological dividend” of COVID-19 in precipitating the adoption of a host of new technologies influencing works and distribution of work, at the same time as nostalgia, represents a powerful barrier. Specifically, managers in a host of organizations which were previously fearful or hesitant about adopting new technologies, have been forced to alter their behaviors, even as others hanker for the opportunity to reset matters to the status quo ante. The analysis shed light on digitizing business-model practices ushered in by the pandemic including the shift to remote working and remote operations, and paperless offices and paperless organizations.

However, the opportunities offered by digital technologies and the pandemic for organizations to re-invent their business models have been curtailed by impeding forces such as organizational inflexibility, the digital divide, and the uneven effects on employee wellbeing. The crucial forces driving towards digitalization include availability of user-friendly digital technologies, lower digital-data storage cost and the potential efficiency gains that might come with this, as well as the savings and more efficient usage of time, and potentially flexibility, that come with homeworking; these benefits may be self-reinforcing in a positive feedback loop. However, there may be immediate costs to specific categories of employee, which are likely to be particularly concentrated within specific types of organization. In turn, this might lead to negative effects on wellbeing and productivity, raising the potential for resistance. Again, contextual circumstances, ranging from the physical infrastructural provision through to the configuration of supportive institutions to political pressures at the behest of vested interests, may all disrupt matters, and, indeed, coalesce in negative feedback loops. Moreover, digitalization brings with it many unknowns, which in turn, may drive the kind of nostalgia and an urge to return to the status quo ante that characterized past pandemics. Nor is such nostalgia solely driven by fear and superstition: digitalization brings with it a range of high-probability risks that are challenging to mitigate or prepare for, from quotidian security breaches to internet outages; knowledge as to the range of causes of the latter remains incomplete ( Aceto et al., 2018 ). The analysis also focuses on the shift to remote working and remote operations, as well as paperless offices and paperless organizations, in other words, the digitalization of office work, supplementing accounts of the digitalization of marketing, logistics, supply chains, and retail. Simultaneously, shifts toward the digital office face countervailing pressures such as organizational inflexibility, ideology, and, in the case of smaller firms, traditions of cash-based businesses and the digital divide of haves and have nots.

From a theoretical standpoint, this paper contributes to the current discourse on COVID-19 ( Spicer, 2020 ) by examining the shift and processes towards digitalization by businesses, focusing on the internal dimensions, people, and work, and locating this in a wider comparative context. We map out the mechanisms through which COVID-19 can drive digitalization in these domains, as a dynamic process, characterized by positive and negative feedback loops, moulded by internal and external contextual features. Other high-probability yet poorly prepared events are likely to result in similar dynamic processes of adjustment, characterized by foreseen and unforeseen consequences, and with associated patterns of reinforcement and disaggregation.

From a practical standpoint, our analysis buttressed the argument that the crisis presents opportunities for businesses to embrace at least some aspects of digitalization. This could be an effective strategy to weather the storm and help firms emerge from the crisis more resilient. Our analysis also buttresses the need for organizations to reinvent themselves or risk becoming the casualty of market competition. This is crucial given the empirical evidence from business failure research that has demonstrated that one of the major causes of business failure is the inability to adapt the business model and firms’ offering as the external environment changes ( Zhang et al., 2019 ). Our study speaks to the ongoing digitalization agenda around the globe emphasizing a need for governments to create economic incentives and processes that facilitate the transition of businesses to capture the benefits of digitalization ( You et al., 2020 ). It is for this reason that it has become increasingly apparent for governments to focus on developing and scaling-up technology infrastructure to improve access as well as connecting rural communities to the new digital economy. To keep abreast of the changing technology landscape, there is a need for government resources especially in the developing world to build a technology infrastructure that provides baseline support for new and emerging businesses to take advantage of and transition to new technologies. For instance, governments can subsidize or provide electronically enabled devices for small businesses. This may bring transparency in the way businesses operate, helping in the enforcement of tax and labor standards. However, there are major concerns centered around the notion that digitalization can erode firms’ ability to monitor, control, and assess the work of employees. This is coupled with the security and safety issues related to firms’ exposure to embarrassing data breaches, data theft, and the general vulnerability of the digital infrastructure on which the firm relies. It is worth noting that some businesses still hold the view that it is not safe for them to distribute their products via the internet, and unfeasible to manage their people remotely. In addition, the transition to new technologies is generally difficult for firms. Indeed, when companies suddenly adopt powerful new technologies, productivity often drops in the short-term and then recovers ( Rosalsky, 2020a ); yet, as noted above, the productivity costs of digitalization may be delayed and long term. Moreover, the analysis also suggests the need for firms to embrace the latest technologies – digital platforms, cloud computing, mobile apps, and other communication tools as central to the organizational architecture. This would go a long way in improving firm processes and productivity, and facilitate effective collaboration between co-workers in isolated locations. There is also a potential for a greater “psychological dividend” to be accrued from technology usage during this crisis. This is where the pandemic has forced many individuals, managers, workers, and customers to embrace technologies that they previously rejected. In noting the wider practical implications of the observations made here, there is also potential that employers would seek to reduce wages of workers performing duties from low-cost locations and low-cost developing countries such as India, Mexico, and Turkey.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with renewed statism, the latter encompassing not only remedial interventions but also a focus on developing industrial policies for sustainable post-pandemic recoveries (c.f. Wright et al., 2021 ). As part of the post-pandemic reconstruction, it may be desirable for governments to provide incentives for firms to develop digital skills and capabilities, and to improve national physical digital infrastructures. For example, routine and long-term usage of home working and teleworking may reduce traffic congestion and pollution, and make for more efficient working. Again, if firms can no longer count on the business models of the past, new digital skills may be a prerequisite for survival. The pandemic has led to governments making unprecedented usage of digital technologies to gather and monitor citizens, and this is likely to result in increased interest in the further usage of digital solutions.

This rescaling of the state has profound economic and political consequences, as, indeed, early research noted prior to the pandemic ( Schou & Hjelholt, 2019 ). However, in considering the themes and issues raised by this study, it is worth taking further account of contextual effects. A large proportion of government-promoted digitilization has been driven by private firms enjoying close ties with governments, and who have used this opportunity to capture significant amounts of data and shore up monopolistic or oligopolistic market positions (see Wright et al., 2021 ). Hence, if there is more knowledge about what can be done digitally, there is little sign that this will drive broader and beneficial usage of digitalization across the wider economy, or improve the competitive position of firms at large. Again, whilst optimistic accounts have suggested that digitalization may make firms more competitive, whilst improving the position of workers, more pessimistic accounts highlight how this has contributed to closer surveillance and task fragmentation ( Shibata, 2021 ). The latter can be without improving productivity or adding value to the production process. Indeed, whilst the pandemic may have driven greater digitalization, this may contribute to further oligopolization and a greater focus on generating returns from rents (owing to control of a market or accessing state resources) rather than the production of competitive goods and services. Hence, whilst digitalization may represent a vital element of post-pandemic industrial policy, it brings with it many risks and challenges. If governments cannot always be counted on to act wisely, or in the interests of non-insider firms and wider society, this would suggest a central role for civil society in holding them to account. NGOs continue to play an important role in providing digital skills to SMEs, but of equal importance is the raising awareness of the benefits and risks digitalization poses to them and society at large – in other words, in promoting informed digitalization.

Notwithstanding the above contributions to practice and theory, our analysis has important limitations which cannot be overlooked. It is worth noting that developing countries often suffer from institutional constraints such as lack of supportive internet infrastructure, poor telecom networks, and regulatory frameworks needed for remote working to flourish with rural areas being more heavily impacted relative to cities. Given that developed countries have become largely service-oriented economies such as banking, finance, and software development which lends itself to a degree of remote working, services from sectors such as farming, mining, and manufacturing that epitomize developing economies often have to be delivered or performed face to face. Beside the lack of empirical testing to underpin the analysis, the COVID situation is also still evolving, with multiple unknown outcomes. Thus, an interesting area for the future is to track businesses’ activities through these different faces in their responses to COVID. Such analysis has potential to further elevate our understanding of this pandemic. A more robust empirical testing of the relationships outlined is needed to advance the literature. Although pandemics are unwelcome events, a study offering a deeper understanding of how businesses develop resilience capabilities to respond could further advance the literature. Future studies could explore the issues of business renewal and resilience after such a crisis. A valuable direction for future research would be to examine the effects of slow digitalization in leading to possible business failures.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Biographies

Joseph Amankwah-Amoah is a multi-award-winning Professor of International Business at the University of Kent, UK. Joseph has consistently published in many journals of international repute, including British Journal of Management, Industrial and Corporate Change, Business History, Long Range Planning, International Business Review, Journal of Institutional Economics, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of Human Resource Management, Journal of International Management, Decision Support Systems, Management International Review, Thunderbird International Business Review, R&D Management, Business Strategy and the Environment, Transportation Research Part E, Computers in Industry, Journal of Rural Studies, Group and Organization Management, International Journal of Production Economics, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management and Journal of Business Research. In all, he has published over 120 articles.

Zaheer Khan is Professor of Strategy & International Business at Aberdeen University Business School, University of Aberdeen, UK. His research focuses on global technology management, alliances and internationalization of emerging markets’ firms. His work has appeared in the Journal of International Business Studies, International Business Review, Human Relations, Journal of World Business, Global Strategy Journal and British Journal of Management, among others.

Geoffrey Wood is DanCap Chair in Innovation Management at Western University, Canada. Prior to this he was Dean and Professor of International Business at Essex Business School, University of Essex, UK. Geoff's research interests center on the relationship between institutional setting, corporate governance, firm finance, emerging market MNEs, and firm-level work and employment relations. His work has appeared in the Academy of Management Perspectives, Journal of International Business studies, Journal of World Business, Human Resources Management, International Business Review, Socio-Economic Review, Journal of Organizational Behvior, Work, Employment and Society, Management International Review, International Journal of Management Review, British Journal of Management, and International Journal of Human Resource Management, among others. He is Editor in Chief of the Academy of Management Perspective and Human Resource Management Journal.

Gary Knight. Professor Knight has extensive experience in international business in the private sector, especially regarding Europe, Japan, and Mexico. For 15 years, he was professor of international business at Florida State University where he developed the university’s business study abroad programs in Europe and Japan. He was a visiting Fulbright Scholar at McGill University, Canada. His research emphasizes international strategy, emerging markets, and internationalization of small and medium enterprises. Professor Knight has authored six books and 40 refereed articles in academic journals, including Journal of International Business Studies, Journal of World Business, International Executive, and Management International Review. The U.S. House of Representatives’ Committee on Small Business invited Professor Knight to provide expert testimony on international management topics. He has been an invited speaker at numerous universities worldwide. In addition to graduate degrees, Professor Knight attended the University of Paris in France and Sophia University in Japan and is fluent in French, Japanese, and Spanish. Personal interests include world affairs, reading, writing, international travel, and learning foreign language

• Aceto G., Botta A., Marchetta P., Persico V., Pescapé A. A comprehensive survey on internet outages. Journal of Network and Computer Applications. 2018; 113 :36–63. [ Google Scholar ]
• Adomako S., Amankwah-Amoah J., Tarba S.Y., Khan Z. Perceived corruption, business process digitization, and SMEs’ degree of internationalization in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Business Research. 2021; 123 :196–207. [ Google Scholar ]
• African Business Magazine (2020). Covid-19 exposes Africa’s digital divide. Retrieved 20-9-20, from https://africanbusinessmagazine.com/sectors/technology/covid-19-exposes-africas-digital-divide/.
• Amankwah-Amoah J. Stepping Up and Stepping Out of COVID-19: New Challenges for Environmental Sustainability Policies in the Global Airline Industry. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2020; 271 :123000. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123000. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Amankwah-Amoah J. Note: Mayday, Mayday, Mayday! Responding to Environmental Shocks: Insights on Global Airlines’ Responses to COVID-19. Transportation Research Part E. 2020; 143 :102098. doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2020.102098. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Amankwah-Amoah J. COVID-19 pandemic and innovation activities in the global airline industry: A review. Environment International. 2021; 156 [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Amankwah-Amoah, J. Khan, Z., & Wood, G. (2020). COVID-19 and Business Failures: The Paradoxes of Experience, Scale and Scope for Theory and Practice. European Management Journal. DOI: 10.1016/j.emj.2020.09.002.
• Amankwah-Amoah J., Debrah Y.A., Yu W., Lin Z., Danso A., Adomako S. Technology strategies in emerging economies: Emerging issues, challenges and new research agenda. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2021; 170 :120881. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120881. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Anderson, D. and Kelliher, C., 2020. Enforced remote working and the work-life interface during lockdown. Gender in Management: An International Journal.
• Appiah G., Amankwah-Amoah J., Liu Y.L. Organizational Architecture, Resilience and Cyber-attacks. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management. 2020 [ Google Scholar ]
• Asimakopoulou, K., Coulson, N., Gilbert, D. and Scambler, S., 2021. Covid-19: social and behavioural responses to chaotic decision making. BMJ, 372. Early online at: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n249.full. [ PubMed ]
• Atia N., Davies J. Nostalgia and the shapes of history. Memory Studies. 2010; 3 (3):181–186. [ Google Scholar ]
• Autio E., Sapienza H., Almeida J. Effects of Age at Entry, Knowledge Intensity, and Imitability on International Growth. Academy of Management Journal. 2000; 43 (5):909–924. [ Google Scholar ]
• Autio, E., Mudambi, R. and Yoo, Y. 2021. Digitalization and globalization in a turbulent world: Centrifugal and centripetal forces. Global Strategy Journal. Early online at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/gsj.1396.
• Baig A., Hall B., Jenkins P., Lamarre E., McCarthy B. McKinsey Digital; 2020. The COVID-19 recovery will be digital: A plan for the first 90 days. [ Google Scholar ]
• Baldassarre B., Calabretta G., Bocken N.M.P., Jaskiewicz T. Bridging sustainable business model innovation and user-driven innovation: A process for sustainable value proposition design. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2017; 147 :175–186. [ Google Scholar ]
• Barkema H., Vermeulen F. International Expansion Through Start-Up or Acquisition: A Learning Perspective. Academy of Management Journal. 1998; 41 (1):7–26. [ Google Scholar ]
• Beaunoyer E., Dupéré S., Guitton M.J. COVID-19 and digital inequalities: Reciprocal impacts and mitigation strategies. Computers in human behavior. 2020; 111 :106424. doi: 10.1016/j.chb.2020.106424. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Björkdahl J. Strategies for digitalization in manufacturing firms. California Management Review. 2020; 62 (4):17–36. [ Google Scholar ]
• Bloomberg, J. (2018). Digitization, digitalization, and digital transformation: confuse them at your peril. Retrieved 2-9-20, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbloomberg/2018/04/29/digitization-digitalization-and-digital-transformation-confuse-them-at-your-peril/#5616301a2f2c.
• Bradley C., Hirt M., Hudson S., Northcote N., Smit S. The great acceleration. McKinsey Quarterly. 2020:1–7. [ Google Scholar ]
• Brennen, S. J., & Kreiss, D. (2016). Digitalization. In K.B. Jensen, R.T. Craig, J.D. Pooley, & E.W. Rothenbuhler (Eds.). The International Encyclopedia of Communication Theory and Philosophy (pp. 1–11). John Wiley & Sons.
• Casadesus-Masanell R., Zhu F. Business model innovation and competitive imitation: The case of sponsor-based business models. Strategic Management Journal. 2013; 34 (4):464–482. [ Google Scholar ]
• Charbonneau É., Doberstein C. An empirical assessment of the intrusiveness and reasonableness of emerging work surveillance technologies in the public sector. Public Administration Review. 2020; 80 (5):780–791. [ Google Scholar ]
• Christensen C.M., Antony S.D., Roth E.A. Harvard Business School Press; Boston: 2004. Seeing what’s next. [ Google Scholar ]
• Collis D. A Resource-Based Analysis of Global Competition. Strategic Management Journal. 1991; 12 :49–68. [ Google Scholar ]
• Conroy, D.A., Hadler, N.L., Cho, E., … and Goldstein, C.A., 2020. The effects of COVID-19 stay-at-home order on sleep, health, and working patterns: a survey study of United States health care workers. Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine, pp.jcsm-8808. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• Cortez, J. (2020). Remote-Work Technology Fuels M&A Activity During Pandemic. Retrieved 2-9-20, from https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-work-technology-fuels-m-a-activity-during-pandemic-11599211800?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1.
• Covin J.G., Slevin D.P. Strategic management of small firms in hostile and benign environments. Strategic Management Journal. 1989; 10 (1):75–87. [ Google Scholar ]
• Dingel J.I., Neiman B. No. w26948. National Bureau of Economic Research; 2020. (How many jobs can be done at home?). [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Ebrahim Z., Irani Z. E-government adoption: Architecture and barriers. Business Process Management Journal. 2005; 11 (5):589–611. [ Google Scholar ]
• Effah J. Institutional effects on e-payment entrepreneurship in a developing country: Enablers and constraints. Information Technology for Development. 2016; 22 (2):205–219. [ Google Scholar ]
• Effah J., Nuhu H. Institutional barriers to digitalization of government budgeting in developing countries: A case study of Ghana. Electronic Journal of Information Systems in Developing Countries. 2017; 82 (1):1–17. [ Google Scholar ]
• Elliott R.J.R., Schumacher I., Withagen C. Suggestions for a Covid-19 post-pandemic research agenda in environmental economics. Environmental and Resource Economics. 2020; 76 (4):1187–1213. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Faragher, J. 2020. Government Back to Work Campaign is Stepped Up. Personnel Today 28/8. Available at: https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/government-back-to-work-campaign-is-stepped-up/.
• Grant R.M. The resource-based theory of competitive advantage: implications for strategy formulation. California Management Review. 1991; 33 (Spring):114–135. [ Google Scholar ]
• Haight M., Quan-Haase A., Corbett B.A. Revisiting the digital divide in Canada: The impact of demographic factors on access to the internet, level of online activity, and social networking site usage. Information, Communication & Society. 2014; 17 (4):503–519. [ Google Scholar ]
• Hensher D.A., Wei E., Beck MatthewJ., Balbontin C. The impact of COVID-19 on cost outlays for car and public transport commuting-The case of the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area after three months of restrictions. Transport Policy. 2021; 101 :71–80. [ Google Scholar ]
• Higgins D.M. The black swan effect and the impact on Australian property forecasting. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction. 2013; 18 (1):76–89. [ Google Scholar ]
• Hjálmsdóttir A., Bjarnadóttir V.S. “I have turned into a foreman here at home”: Families and work–life balance in times of COVID-19 in a gender equality paradise. Gender, Work & Organization. 2021; 28 (1):268–283. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Hodder A. New Technology, Work and Employment in the era of COVID-19: Reflecting on legacies of research. New Technology, Work and Employment. 2020; 35 (3):262–275. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Hudson, A. (2012). Is the paperless office possible? Why it is so hard to go paperless? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/click_online/9735525.stm.
• JoyBusiness (2020). Pandemic has catapulted banking sector into the future – Banking consultant. Retrieved 30-8-20, from https://www.myjoyonline.com/business/banking/pandemic-has-catapulted-banking-sector-into-the-future-banking-consultant/.
• Kniffin Kevin M., Narayanan Jayanth, Anseel Frederik, Antonakis John, Ashford Susan P., Bakker Arnold B., Bamberger Peter, Bapuji Hari, Bhave Devasheesh P., Choi Virginia K., Creary Stephanie J., Demerouti Evangelia, Flynn Francis J., Gelfand Michele J., Greer Lindred L., Johns Gary, Kesebir Selin, Klein Peter G., Lee Sun Young, Ozcelik Hakan, Petriglieri Jennifer Louise, Rothbard Nancy P., Rudolph Cort W., Shaw Jason D., Sirola Nina, Wanberg Connie R., Whillans Ashley, Wilmot Michael P., Vugt Mark van. COVID-19 and the workplace: Implications, issues, and insights for future research and action. American Psychologist. 2021; 76 (1):63–77. [ PubMed ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Kreiser Patrick M., Anderson Brian S., Kuratko Donald F., Marino Louis D. Entrepreneurial orientation and environmental hostility: A threat rigidity perspective. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice. 2020; 44 (6):1174–1198. [ Google Scholar ]
• Lanzolla Gianvito, Suarez Fernando F. Closing the technology adoption–use divide: The role of contiguous user bandwagon. Journal of Management. 2012; 38 (3):836–859. [ Google Scholar ]
• Leonard-Barton D. Core capabilities and core rigidities: A paradox in managing new product development. Strategic management journal. 1992; 13 (S1):111–125. [ Google Scholar ]
• Lokuge Sachithra, Sedera Darshana, Grover Varun, Dongming Xu. Organizational readiness for digital innovation: Development and empirical calibration of a construct. Information & Management. 2019; 56 (3):445–461. [ Google Scholar ]
• Lozada, C. (2020). The great acceleration. Retrieved 10.5.2021, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/12/18/coronavirus-great-acceleration-changes-society/.
• Lupton Deborah. ‘Better understanding about what's going on’: Young Australians’ use of digital technologies for health and fitness. Sport, Education and Society. 2020; 25 (1):1–13. [ Google Scholar ]
• MacLeavy Julie. Care work, gender inequality and technological advancement in the age of COVID-19. Gender, Work & Organization. 2021; 28 (1):138–154. [ Google Scholar ]
• Miele Francesco, Tirabeni Lia. Digital technologies and power dynamics in the organization: A conceptual review of remote working and wearable technologies at work. Sociology Compass. 2020; 14 (6) doi: 10.1111/soc4.v14.610.1111/soc4.12795. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Miller D., Friesen P. Prentice-Hall; Englewood Cliffs, NJ: 1984. Organizations: A Quantum View. [ Google Scholar ]
• Morgan Stanley (2020). Dear Fellow shareholders: Retrieved 2-9-20, from https://www.morganstanley.com/about-us-2020ams/pdf/2020_Letter_to_Shareholders.pdf.
• Nambisan Satish, Lyytinen Kalle, Majchrzak Ann, Song Michael. Digital Innovation Management: Reinventing innovation management research in a digital world. Mis Quarterly. 2017; 41 (1):223–238. [ Google Scholar ]
• Peachey, K (2019). Millions choose a cashless lifestyle. Retrieved 20-9-20, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48542233.
• Peachey, K (2020). More than half of all payments made by card even before coronavirus. Retrieved 20-9-20, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52905265.
• Phan Phillip H., Wood Geoffrey. Doomsday Scenarios (or the Black Swan Excuse for Unpreparedness) Academy of Management Perspectives. 2020; 34 (4):425–433. [ Google Scholar ]
• Pisano, G., & Teece, D. (1994). The dynamic capabilities of firms: An introduction. Industrial and Corporate Change, 3(3), 537–556.
• Rachinger Michael, Rauter Romana, Müller Christiana, Vorraber Wolfgang, Schirgi Eva. Digitalization and its influence on business model innovation. Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management. 2019; 30 (8):1143–1160. [ Google Scholar ]
• Retana, G. F., Forman, C., Narasimhan, S., Niculescu, M. F., & Wu, D. J. (2018). Technology support and post-adoption IT service use: Evidence from the cloud. MIS Quarterly, 42(3), 961-978.
• Ritter Thomas, Pedersen Carsten Lund. Digitization capability and the digitalization of business models in business-to-business firms: Past, present, and future. Industrial Marketing Management. 2020; 86 :180–190. [ Google Scholar ]
• Rosalsky, G. (2020a). Is Remote Work Here To Stay? Retrieved 2-9-20, from https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2020/06/30/882834590/is-remote-work-here-to-stay.
• Rosalsky, G. (2020b). Why Remote Work Sucks, According To Science. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2020/04/28/846671375/why-remote-work-sucks-according-to-science.
• Ross, J. (2017). Don’t confuse digital with digitization. MIT Sloan Management Review (https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/dont-confuse-digital-with-digitization/).
• Saarikko Ted, Westergren Ulrika H., Blomquist Tomas. Digital transformation: Five recommendations for the digitally conscious firm. Business Horizons. 2020; 63 (6):825–839. doi: 10.1016/j.bushor.2020.07.005. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Schou Jannick, Hjelholt Morten. Digital state spaces: State rescaling and advanced digitalization. Territory, Politics, Governance. 2019; 7 (4):438–454. [ Google Scholar ]
• Seetharaman Priya. Business models shifts: Impact of Covid-19. International Journal of Information Management. 2020; 54 :102173. doi: 10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2020.102173. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Sheng J., Amankwah-Amoah J., Khan Z., Wang X. COVID-19 Pandemic in the New Era of Big Data Analytics: Methodological Innovations and Future Research Directions. British Journal of Management. 2020 [ Google Scholar ]
• Shibata, S., 2021. Digitalization or flexibilization? The changing role of technology in the political economy of Japan. Review of International Political Economy. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09692290.2021.1935294.
• Smith, J. (2019). Why businesses need to go paperless now. Retrieved 30-8-20, from https://www.itproportal.com/features/why-businesses-need-to-go-paperless-now/.
• Sostero M., Milasi S., Hurley J., Fernández-Macías E., Bisello M., (2020). Teleworkability and the COVID-19 crisis: a new digital divide?, Seville: European Commission, 2020, JRC121193.
• Soto-Acosta Pedro. COVID-19 Pandemic: Shifting Digital Transformation to a High-Speed Gear. Information Systems Management. 2020; 37 (4):260–266. [ Google Scholar ]
• Spicer, A., 2020. Organizational Culture and COVID‐19. Journal of Management Studies, 57(8), pp.1737-1740.
• Standing G. Biteback Publishing; London: 2016. The corruption of capitalism: Why rentiers thrive and work does not pay. [ Google Scholar ]
• The Economist (2002) Business: Saving trees; Adobe versus Microsoft. 365(8298), 64.
• Utterback James M, Abernathy William J. A dynamic model of process and product innovation. Omega. 1975; 3 (6):639–656. [ Google Scholar ]
• Varlık N. Rethinking the history of plague in the time of COVID-19. Centaurus. 2020; 62 (2):285–293. [ Google Scholar ]
• Verma Surabhi, Gustafsson Anders. Investigating the emerging COVID-19 research trends in the field of business and management: A bibliometric analysis approach. Journal of Business Research. 2020; 118 :253–261. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Vural C.A., Roso V., Halldórsson Á., Ståhle G., Yaruta M. Can digitalization mitigate barriers to intermodal transport? An exploratory study. Research in Transportation Business & Management. 2020; 100525 [ Google Scholar ]
• Wang B., Liu Y., Qian J., Parker S.K. Achieving effective remote working during the COVID-19 pandemic: A work design perspective. Applied Psychology. 2021; 70 (1):16–59. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Wilson M.E., Chen L.H. Re-starting travel in the era of COVID-19: Preparing anew. Journal of Travel Medicine. 2020; 27 (5):p.taaa108. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ] [ Google Scholar ]
• World Health Organization . WHO; Geneva: 2020. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Weekly Epidemiological Update. [ Google Scholar ]
• Worldometers (2021). Coronavirus Cases. Retrieved 18.07.2021, from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.
• Wright Mike, Wood Geoffrey, Musacchio Aldo, Okhmatovskiy Ilya, Grosman Anna, Doh Jonathan P. State capitalism in international context: Varieties and variations. Journal of World Business. 2021; 56 (2):101160. doi: 10.1016/j.jwb.2020.101160. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Yang, J.C. (2020). COVID-19 Exposed Widening Gap In Digital Divide. https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2020/09/11/covid-19_exposed_widening_gap_in_digital_divide_576988.html.
• Yerkes, M.A., André, S.C., Besamusca, J.W., Kruyen, P.M., Remery, C.L., van der Zwan, R., Beckers, D.G. and Geurts, S.A., 2020. ‘Intelligent’lockdown, intelligent effects? Results from a survey on gender (in) equality in paid work, the division of childcare and household work, and quality of life among parents in the Netherlands during the Covid-19 lockdown. PloS one, 15(11), p.e0242249. [ PMC free article ] [ PubMed ]
• You Kefei, Bianco Silvia Dal, Amankwah-Amoah Joseph. Closing Technological Gaps to Alleviate Poverty: Evidence from 17 Sub-Saharan African Countries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2020; 157 :120055. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120055. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]
• Zhang Hongxu, Amankwah-Amoah Joseph, Beaverstock Jonathan. Toward a construct of dynamic capabilities malfunction: Insights from failed Chinese entrepreneurs. Journal of Business Research. 2019; 98 :415–429. [ Google Scholar ]
• Zheng Yingqin, Walsham Geoff. Inequality of what? An intersectional approach to digital inequality under Covid-19. Information and Organization. 2021; 31 (1):100341. doi: 10.1016/j.infoandorg.2021.100341. [ CrossRef ] [ Google Scholar ]