essay on climate change in pakistan 2022

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One year on—the persistent plight of the 2022 floods on health in Pakistan

• Related content
• Peer review
• Mohammad R Ali , PhD fellow 1 2 3 ,
• Syed W Javed , health adviser 4 ,
• Zafar Iqbal , associate medical director public health 3 5 ,
• Muhammad Sartaj , senior public health adviser 4
• 1 Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, UK
• 2 Faculty of Public Health, Special Interest Group: Disasters and Humanitarian Response
• 3 Faculty of Public Health, Special Interest Group: Pakistan
• 4 UK Health Security Agency, International Health Regulations (IHR) Strengthening Project, Pakistan
• 5 Midlands Partnership University NHS Foundation Trust, St Georges Hospital, Stafford, UK

A year after the floods that devastated Pakistan, action must be taken to prepare for and mitigate the health and environmental damage caused by climate change, write Mohammad Rizwan Ali and colleagues

People in Pakistan continue to suffer one year after the disastrous flooding of July 2022. Monsoon rains unleashed significant floods that wreaked havoc on the lives of 33 million people—more than one sixth of Pakistan’s population—and over 1000 lives were lost. 1 The economic impact was estimated at $30bn, requiring $16bn for reconstruction alone. 2 These challenges are compounded by Pakistan’s severe economic downturn, characterised by high inflation, limited mechanisms to mitigate the decline in citizens’ purchasing power, and low economic resilience. 3 4 Climate related flooding has transformed land once arable for rice and wheat cultivation into floodplains, depriving many individuals of their livelihoods and exacerbating food scarcity.

Challenges in accessing clean water and food add to significant health concerns. The situation is dire for the millions of people who lack access to safe and clean water. 5 This is exacerbated by summer temperatures of up to 51°C, 6 some of the highest globally. 7 Running water is scarce. Groundwater usually extracted through tube wells is now inaccessible because of flooding, and available water is at risk of contamination. Recent estimates have shown that 10.5 million people, particularly children, are facing food insecurity. 8 The prevalence of malnutrition has necessitated immediate public health interventions and targeted education on breastfeeding and infant feeding, 9 given that 44% of children in the country have stunted growth attributed to malnutrition. 10

Comprehending the health emergency in Pakistan after the flooding required rapid implementation of robust data collection methods to assess the health situation. Efforts were made to quantify the extent of ill health in flooded areas in real time. This allowed health professions to identify outbreaks of acute diarrheal and respiratory illness, skin diseases, and malaria across different regions of the country. 11

Varying healthcare provision across regions has led to significant disparities in the incidence and prevalence of communicable diseases such as cholera and malaria, which persist a year after the floods. Such discrepancies have disproportionately affected the Sindh region, which has inadequate healthcare infrastructure, primarily because of economic deprivation. Despite the use of data systems for targeting resources, the failing health infrastructure, weak coordination mechanism, and lack of funding severely hindered an effective response to the floods.

Numerous aid agencies attempted to organise an international response shortly after the floods. But lack of coordination between them and the state sectors in Pakistan meant this was suboptimal. The probability of future serious flooding in Pakistan is high—up to 72% in 2023 12 —and recent monsoons have caused additional loss of life. 13 Funding for healthcare is insufficient. 8 Inadequate healthcare provision, particularly in rural areas and those with low incomes, exacerbates the effects of natural disasters in Pakistan. Identifying those at highest risk and increasing the resilience of local health systems are vital steps. This includes determining regions acutely at risk for further flooding by using climate disaster modelling. 14 Mitigation strategies must prioritise upstream prevention, implement effective interventions, identify healthcare provisions, and ensure the rapid delivery of aid in disasters. A more coordinated and well funded response is urgently needed to recover after the 2022 floodings and prepare for future incidents. This means establishing a resilient healthcare infrastructure that can adapt to climate change, and includes local laboratories, primary care facilities, and transportation networks.

Pakistan is among the most water stressed countries in the world, but opportunities exist to stabilise water levels in the long term. Careful planning and climate resilient agriculture practices will help Pakistan adapt to the changing climate. These practices include educating farmers in water-stressed areas to use new technologies and acquire specialised training in cultivating crops 15 16 such as rice, wheat, and maize. 17 18 This should be combined with sustainable groundwater management, using floodings to replenish low groundwater levels 15 Insights from other countries that have successfully implemented interventions will be valuable, particularly as monsoon seasons intensify. Examples include the Netherlands, which has created more capacity for rivers to accommodate floodwaters, 19 Japan, where underground tunnels and reservoirs have been constructed, 20 or the US, where “at risk” land has been purchased by the government and converted into natural floodplain areas. 21

The need to strengthen healthcare and infrastructure in Pakistan is urgent, as is an adequate response to future crises and mitigation of the worst effects of climate disasters. In 2022, some rapid and successful efforts were made to quantify health issues in flood-affected regions. But the state of ill health in Pakistan has worsened because of climate change, 10 driven by lack of trauma care resources 22 and inadequate healthcare provision, particularly for children. 23 Enhanced stakeholder coordination between the Pakistan government, aid agencies, and local and national healthcare providers and increased funding are essential for providing adequate healthcare and protecting vulnerable populations from crises driven by climate change. Concerns remain about future climate driven events, especially among those who have already experienced their consequences. With a high probability of recurrence, global communities must learn from these events and take proactive measures.

Competing interest statement: All authors declare no support from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years.

Provenance and peer review: not commissioned; not externally peer reviewed.

• ↵ World Health Organization. Major health risks unfolding amid floods in Pakistan. 2022. http://www.emro.who.int/pak/pakistan-news/major-health-risks-unfolding-amid-floods-in-pakistan.html
• ↵ World Bank. Pakistan: flood damages and economic losses over USD 30 billion and reconstruction needs over USD 16 billion—new assessment. 2022. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/28/pakistan-flood-damages-and-economic-losses-over-usd-30-billion-and-reconstruction-needs-over-usd-16-billion-new-assessme
• ↵ Asian Development Bank. Pakistan economic recovery rests on resuming robust reforms. 2023. https://www.adb.org/news/pakistan-economic-recovery-rests-resuming-robust-reforms-adb
• ↵ Haider K. Pakistan’s inflation outpaces Sri Lanka as Asia’s fastest. Bloomberg 2023. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-02/pakistan-s-inflation-hits-record-with-no-sign-yet-of-imf-funds
• ↵ UNICEF. More than 10 million people, including children, living in Pakistan’s flood-affected areas still lack access to safe drinking water. 2023. https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/more-10-million-people-including-children-living-pakistans-flood-affected-areas
• ↵ Jacobabad: World’s hottest city in Pakistan now under water. Al Jazeera 2022 Aug 31. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/31/furnace-to-flood-worlds-hottest-city-in-pakistan-under-water
• ↵ Coleman J. Climate change made South Asian heatwave 30 times more likely. Nature 2022. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01444-1
• ↵ OCHA. Pakistan: 2022 monsoon floods—situation report no. 17. Pakistan. 2023. https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-2022-monsoon-floods-situation-report-no-17-12-june-2023
• ↵ Abidi SMA. The urgent need to address child malnutrition in rural areas of Pakistan: lessons from the 2022 floods. J Pediatr Health Care 2023 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S089152452300127X
• Malik MHBA ,
• Ur Rehman ME
• ↵ The Nation. NDMA predicts more devastating floods this year. The Nation 2023. https://www.nation.com.pk/12-Apr-2023/ndma-predicts-more-devastating-floods-this-year
• ↵ France-Presse A. At least 50 dead in Pakistan monsoon floods since end of June. Guardian 2023 Jul 7. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/07/pakistan-monsoon-floods-punjab-province-deaths
• ↵ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. “Climate-Smart” agriculture: policies, practices and financing for food security, adaptation and mitigation. 2010. https://www.fao.org/3/i1881e/i1881e00.htm
• Emerick K ,
• ↵ Lakhani N. The race against time to breed a wheat to survive the climate crisis. Guardian 2022 Jun 12. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/12/wheat-breeding-climate-crisis-drought-resistant
• van Herk S ,
• Zevenbergen C ,
• Masuhara K ,
• Mochida S ,
• Yamamoto T ,
• Curran-Groome W ,
• BenDor TK ,
• ↵ World Food Programme. WFP Pakistan floods situation report. 2023. https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/wfp-pakistan-floods-situation-report-17-july-2023

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Climate change likely helped cause deadly Pakistan floods, scientists find

Rebecca Hersher

People wait in line for food in Sindh province, Pakistan, on Sept. 19, 2022. The province was one of the hardest hit by recent deadly floods. A new analysis confirms that climate change likely helped cause the disaster. Pervez Masih/AP hide caption

People wait in line for food in Sindh province, Pakistan, on Sept. 19, 2022. The province was one of the hardest hit by recent deadly floods. A new analysis confirms that climate change likely helped cause the disaster.

It is likely that climate change helped drive deadly floods in Pakistan, according to a new scientific analysis. The floods killed nearly 1500 people and displaced more than 30 million, after record-breaking rain in August.

The analysis confirms what Pakistan's government has been saying for weeks: that the disaster was clearly driven by global warming . Pakistan experienced its wettest August since the country began keeping detailed national weather records in 1961. The provinces that were hardest hit by floods received up to eight times more rain than usual, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department .

Climate change made such heavy rainfall more likely, according to the analysis by a group of international climate scientists in Pakistan, Europe and the United States. While Pakistan has sometimes experienced heavy monsoon rains, about 75 percent more water is now falling during weeks when monsoon rains are heaviest, the scientists estimate.

The analysis is a so-called attribution study, a type of research that is conducted very quickly compared to other climate studies, and is meant to offer policymakers and disaster survivors a rough estimate of how global warming affected a specific weather event. More in-depth research is underway to understand the many ways that climate change affects monsoon rainfall.

For example, while it's clear that intense rain will keep increasing as the Earth heats up, climate models also suggest that overall monsoon rains will be less reliable . That would cause cycles of both drought and flooding in Pakistan and neighboring countries in the future.

Such climate whiplash has already damaged crops and killed people across southeast Asia in recent years, and led to a water crisis in Chennai, India in 2019.

The new analysis also makes clear that human caused climate change was not the only driver of Pakistan's deadly floods. Scientists point out that millions of people live in flood-prone areas with outdated drainage in provinces where the flooding was most severe. Upgrading drainage, moving homes and reinforcing bridges and roads would all help prevent such catastrophic damage in the future.

• climate change
• global warming

Pakistan Urgently Needs Significant Investments in Climate Resilience to Secure its Economy and Reduce Poverty

ISLAMABAD, November 10, 2022 —This year’s heatwave and devastating floods are a reminder that climate change-induced disasters can significantly set back Pakistan’s development ambitions and its ability to reduce poverty. These disasters have caused more than 1,700 deaths and displaced more than 8 million people. The damage to infrastructure, assets, crops, and livestock has also been massive, with more than $30 billion in damages and economic losses. The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Pakistan released today concludes that the country needs fundamental shifts in its development path and policies, requiring substantial investments in people-centric climate adaptation and resilience, that will require international support.

“The recent flooding and humanitarian crisis provide a wake-up call for urgent action to prevent further devastation to the people of Pakistan and its economy due to climate change,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. “Accelerated climate actions can protect the economy from shocks and secure more sustainable and inclusive growth in Pakistan.”

The CCDR notes that the combined risks of extreme climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution are projected to reduce Pakistan’s GDP by at least 18 to 20% by 2050. This will stall progress on economic development and poverty reduction.

“If we want to tackle climate change, we need to prioritize investing in adaptation to help prepare Pakistan for future climate-related calamities, which are growing in frequency and intensity,” said Hela Cheikhrouhou, IFC Regional Vice President for Middle East, Central Asia, Türkiye, Afghanistan and Pakistan . “ With the right policy frameworks, Pakistan has the opportunity to attract private investment to build its resilience, particularly in sectors such as water management, agriculture, urban infrastructure, municipal services, and housing.”

To improve adaptation to climate change and avoid high costs, the report recommends five priority transitions:

1. Transforming the Agri-Food System: Productivity in the agri-food system – the largest employer, particularly for poor and vulnerable households – has been plummeting due to the degradation of land, overuse of chemical inputs and water, and lack of research. And yields are projected to drop another 50% by 2050. To bolster rural incomes and strengthen food and water security, Pakistan needs to repurpose environmentally damaging subsidies, promote climate-smart and regenerative agriculture and livestock systems, and prioritize ecosystem restoration.

2. Building Resilient and Livable Cities: Pakistan’s population living in urban areas, already highly exposed to pollution and climate change, will increase from 37% in 2020 to 60% in 2050. To ensure cities become more liveable, urgent reforms are needed for more integrated land use planning and increased investments in municipal services and in energy efficiency and clean transportation. To this end, strong municipal governments, and the expansion of city finances via property taxation are critical.

3. Accelerating a Just Transition to Sustainable Energy and Low-carbon Transport: The energy sector is a critical enabler of economic development and poverty reduction. However, it is a huge drain on public finances and foreign exchange reserves and a major contributor to GHG emissions. Pakistan must prioritize reducing the cost of generation including through energy efficiency, ensuring cost-reflective tariffs and improved targeting of subsidies, while addressing technical and collection losses in transmission and distribution. Scaled-up investment in mass transit can avoid locking in highly polluting modes of transport.

4. Strengthening Human Capital to Achieve Sustained and Equitable Development and Climate Resilience: To address its human capital crisis, Pakistan needs to improve the management of water, sanitation, and hygiene, which is the main driver of child stunting, and reduce high fertility rates. Pakistan should also ensure universal access to quality education and expand its social-protection system by improving benefits, particularly for those at the highest risk.

5. Aligning Financing Policies, Incentives, and Institutions to Support Scale-up of Climate Actions: Implementing these policies and executing a climate-resilient and low-carbon development agenda will require total investment needs that amount to around 10% of the cumulative GDP up to 2030. Accelerating the ongoing reforms to expand domestic revenue mobilization, including raising new municipal and property taxes, as well as improving efficiency and targeting of subsidies for agriculture and energy while protecting the most vulnerable will help to finance a large part of the needed investments. Yet, this will not be enough. A comprehensive financing strategy, involving greater private sector involvement and significant international support will be essential to complement Pakistan’s own commitment towards resilient and inclusive development.

“Foreign private capital can play an important role in addressing the climate change challenges in Pakistan,”  said   Ethiopis Tafara, MIGA Vice President and Chief Risk, Legal and Administrative Officer.  “Sustaining flows of foreign direct investment that support climate mitigation and adaptation will contribute toward financing Pakistan’s low-carbon transition.”

Pakistan is not a significant contributor to global warming, but it is on a high-growth trajectory of carbon emissions linked to fossil fuel use. This is also a source of the country’s chronic fiscal stress and worsening air pollution. Therefore, climate actions that bring co-benefits to both adaptation and mitigation and contribute to improving development outcomes should have the highest priority.

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World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports

The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support a low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners, and enable engagement with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

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Pakistan’s ‘climate carnage beyond imagination’, UN chief tells General Assembly

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The people of Pakistan are the victims of “a grim calculus of climate injustice”, Secretary-General António Guterres told the UN General Assembly on Friday, reminding that while the country was responsible for less than one per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is paying a “supersized price for man-made climate change”.

During a full session of the UN’s most representative body on the country’s devastating floods, he recalled last month’s visit where he saw “a level of climate carnage beyond imagination”.

He described flood waters covering a landmass three times the total area of his own country, Portugal, saying that many lost their homes, livestock, crops and “their futures”.

“ Lives were washed away ”, he spelled out.

"Today, it is Pakistan. Tomorrow it could be any of our countries" - @antonioguterres says climate chaos is knocking on everyone’s door and we must step up and answer the call for the people of #Pakistan UN Photo/Cia Pak https://t.co/pdUucOvnub United Nations Photo UN_Photo October 7, 2022

Worse to come

While the rains have ceased and water is beginning to recede, many areas in the south remain inundated and, with winter approaching, the situation is going from bad to worse.

“Pakistan is on the verge of a public health disaster”, warned the top UN official, pointing to threats of cholera, malaria and dengue fever claiming “far more lives than the floods”.

He painted a picture of nearly 1,500 devastated health facilities, two million damaged or destroyed homes and more than two million families without their possessions.

“ Many have no shelter as winter approaches ”.

Cascading calamities

At the same time, the scale of crop and livestock destruction is “creating a food crisis today and putting the planting season in jeopardy tomorrow”, continued Mr. Guterres.

“Severe hunger is spiking. Malnutrition among children and pregnant lactating women is rising. The number of children out of school is growing. Heartache and hardship – especially for women and girls – is mounting,” he elaborated.

Moreover, more than 15 million people could be pushed into poverty.

The effects of the floods will be felt not just for days or months but will linger in Pakistan for years to come. 

Massive support needed

Working with the Pakistan Government to convene a pledging conference to provide rehabilitation and reconstruction support, the UN chief urged donor countries, international organizations, the private sector and civil society to fully support these efforts.

Meanwhile, the Organization launched the Pakistan Floods Response Plan calling for $816 million – a surge of $656 million from the initial appeal – to respond to the most urgent needs through next May.

“But this pales in comparison to what is needed on every front – including food, water, sanitation…and health support”, said the Secretary-General.

G20’s ‘Moral responsibility’

As the calendar moves quickly to next UN climate conference ( COP27 ) in November, he said “the world is moving backwards [as] greenhouse gas emissions are rising along with climate calamities”. 

The UN chief stressed that COP 27 must be the place where these trends are reversed, serious action on loss and damage taken, and vital funding found for adaptation and resilience. 

Reminding that the G20 leading industrialized nations drive 80 per cent of climate-destroying emissions, he called it their “moral responsibility” to help Pakistan recover, adapt and build resilience to disasters “supercharged by the climate crisis”.

‘We must act now’

Noting that a third of Pakistan had been deluged , Mr. Guterres said that many island States face “the very real prospect of their entire homeland going under”. 

“Communities everywhere are looking down the barrel of climate-driven destruction,” he said. “We must act – and we must act now”. 

While this time it was Pakistan, the Secretary-General warned that tomorrow, “it could be any of our countries and our communities”.

“ Climate chaos is knocking on everyone’s door , right now,” he concluded. “This global crisis demands global solidarity and a global response”.

‘Litmus test of solidarity’

General Assembly President Csaba Kőrösi, underscored the importance of time, as “the price we are paying for delays rises each day”.

He said that today, the world faced a “litmus test of solidarity” in how Member States react to Pakistan’s plight.

“This is a tragedy of epic proportions” that requires “immediate interventions,” to prevent a “permanent emergency”.

Rebuilding together

The Assembly President highlighted the need to be better prepared as droughts and rains return.

More than ever, international relief efforts must focus on transformative solutions, he said. “ Adaptation and resilience are the seeds of sustainability ”.

Mr. Kőrösi urged the ambassadors to “make use of science and solidarity…to enhance our crisis management capacities…[to] rebuild together”.

Appealing for help

Meanwhile the UN refugee agency, UNHCR , is urgently seeking to help more than 650,000 refugees and members of their host communities affected by Pakistan’s calamitous flooding.

Noting that the scale of devastation is “hard to comprehend,” spokesperson Matthew Saltmarsh told a press briefing in Geneva on Friday that as Pakistan faces “a colossal challenge” to respond to the climate disaster, more support is need “for the country and its people, who have generously hosted Afghan refugees for over four decades”.

He reported on the latest estimates of the unprecedented rainfall and flooding, recorded at least 1,700 deaths; 12,800 injured, including at least 4,000 children; some 7.9 million displacements; and nearly 600,000 living in relief sites.

On ‘the frontlines’

“Pakistan is on the frontlines of the climate emergency,” said Mr. Saltmarsh.

UNHCR seeks additional funds to address immediate needs and assist in early recovery processes.

“It could take months for flood waters to recede in the hardest-hit areas, as fears rise over threats of waterborne diseases and the safety of millions of affected people, 70 per cent of whom are women and children,” he said, reminding that “ environmental sustainability will remain central to the response ”.

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Pakistan country climate and development report (november 2022), attachments.

Pakistan Urgently Needs Significant Investments in Climate Resilience to Secure its Economy and Reduce Poverty

ISLAMABAD, November 10, 2022—This year’s heatwave and devastating floods are a reminder that climate change-induced disasters can significantly set back Pakistan’s development ambitions and its ability to reduce poverty. These disasters have caused more than 1,700 deaths and displaced more than 8 million people. The damage to infrastructure, assets, crops, and livestock has also been massive, with more than $30 billion in damages and economic losses. The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Pakistan released today concludes that the country needs fundamental shifts in its development path and policies, requiring substantial investments in people-centric climate adaptation and resilience, that will require international support.

“The recent flooding and humanitarian crisis provide a wake-up call for urgent action to prevent further devastation to the people of Pakistan and its economy due to climate change,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. “Accelerated climate actions can protect the economy from shocks and secure more sustainable and inclusive growth in Pakistan.”

The CCDR notes that the combined risks of extreme climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution are projected to reduce Pakistan’s GDP by at least 18 to 20% by 2050. This will stall progress on economic development and poverty reduction.

“If we want to tackle climate change, we need to prioritize investing in adaptation to help prepare Pakistan for future climate-related calamities, which are growing in frequency and intensity,” said Hela Cheikhrouhou, IFC Regional Vice President for Middle East, Central Asia, Türkiye, Afghanistan and Pakistan. “With the right policy frameworks, Pakistan has the opportunity to attract private investment to build its resilience, particularly in sectors such as water management, agriculture, urban infrastructure, municipal services, and housing.”

To improve adaptation to climate change and avoid high costs, the report recommends five priority transitions:

Transforming the Agri-Food System: Productivity in the agri-food system – the largest employer, particularly for poor and vulnerable households – has been plummeting due to the degradation of land, overuse of chemical inputs and water, and lack of research. And yields are projected to drop another 50% by 2050. To bolster rural incomes and strengthen food and water security, Pakistan needs to repurpose environmentally damaging subsidies, promote climate-smart and regenerative agriculture and livestock systems, and prioritize ecosystem restoration.

Building Resilient and Livable Cities: Pakistan’s population living in urban areas, already highly exposed to pollution and climate change, will increase from 37% in 2020 to 60% in 2050. To ensure cities become more liveable, urgent reforms are needed for more integrated land use planning and increased investments in municipal services and in energy efficiency and clean transportation. To this end, strong municipal governments, and the expansion of city finances via property taxation are critical.

Accelerating a Just Transition to Sustainable Energy and Low-carbon Transport: The energy sector is a critical enabler of economic development and poverty reduction. However, it is a huge drain on public finances and foreign exchange reserves and a major contributor to GHG emissions. Pakistan must prioritize reducing the cost of generation including through energy efficiency, ensuring cost-reflective tariffs and improved targeting of subsidies, while addressing technical and collection losses in transmission and distribution. Scaled-up investment in mass transit can avoid locking in highly polluting modes of transport.

Strengthening Human Capital to Achieve Sustained and Equitable Development and Climate Resilience: To address its human capital crisis, Pakistan needs to improve the management of water, sanitation, and hygiene, which is the main driver of child stunting, and reduce high fertility rates. Pakistan should also ensure universal access to quality education and expand its social-protection system by improving benefits, particularly for those at the highest risk.

Aligning Financing Policies, Incentives, and Institutions to Support Scale-up of Climate Actions: Implementing these policies and executing a climate-resilient and low-carbon development agenda will require total investment needs that amount to around 10% of the cumulative GDP up to 2030. Accelerating the ongoing reforms to expand domestic revenue mobilization, including raising new municipal and property taxes, as well as improving efficiency and targeting of subsidies for agriculture and energy while protecting the most vulnerable will help to finance a large part of the needed investments. Yet, this will not be enough. A comprehensive financing strategy, involving greater private sector involvement and significant international support will be essential to complement Pakistan’s own commitment towards resilient and inclusive development.

“Foreign private capital can play an important role in addressing the climate change challenges in Pakistan,” said Ethiopis Tafara, MIGA Vice President and Chief Risk, Legal and Administrative Officer. “Sustaining flows of foreign direct investment that support climate mitigation and adaptation will contribute toward financing Pakistan’s low-carbon transition.”

Pakistan is not a significant contributor to global warming, but it is on a high-growth trajectory of carbon emissions linked to fossil fuel use. This is also a source of the country’s chronic fiscal stress and worsening air pollution. Therefore, climate actions that bring co-benefits to both adaptation and mitigation and contribute to improving development outcomes should have the highest priority.

World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports

The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support a low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners, and enable engagement with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

In Islamabad Mariam Sara Altaf [email protected]

In Washington Diana Chung [email protected]

For IFC Payam Akram [email protected]

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Pakistan’s Climate Challenges Pose a National Security Emergency

A whole-of-government approach is needed now before climate change exacerbates conflict in the country.

By: Jumaina Siddiqui

Publication Type: Analysis

Pakistan is in the midst of a terrible heatwave , with the temperatures in parts of the country exceeding 120 F. April was the hottest month in the past 61 years, until May came along and saw warmer temperatures. At least 65 people have reportedly died due to the heatwave, but the actual numbers are certainly higher, and it’s caused massive flooding and infrastructure damage in Gilgit-Baltistan, water shortages in Karachi and broader Sindh province, and placed greater demands on the country’s weak electrical grid. Despite monsoon rains beginning in late June — causing at least 77 deaths — many parts of the country still swelter. Pakistan should treat these climate disasters as a full-fledged national security emergency before they stoke conflict that adds further stress amid the country’s other numerous challenges.

Climate Challenges Could Stoke Conflict

For the past 20 years, Pakistan has consistently ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index, with 10,000 fatalities due to climate-related disasters and financial losses amounting to about $4 billion from 173 extreme weather events. These challenges threaten to spark climate-related conflict over resources — such as water — that have become scarce due to climate change impacts. Climate-related disasters like floods, heatwaves or tsunamis can also exacerbate tensions among groups who already have a history of conflict. Any of these scenarios would be a serious threat to Pakistan and have serious ramifications for any government in the immediate aftermath of a climate disaster or as part of efforts to mitigate future disasters.

This year’s heatwave further exacerbated food insecurity, which can undermine peace and stability, according to the United Nations. Scorching temperatures have damaged entire orchards and hurt wheat production across Pakistan, adversely impacting the livelihoods of many small farmers and rendering formerly arable land unusable for agriculture in some parts of the country. Already facing wheat shortages due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Pakistan’s domestic wheat production this year will be reduced by 10% .

During Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s visit to the United States to attend a United Nations meeting on food security, he highlighted that the country is under threat of food, water and energy insecurity. Unfortunately, it is not just a threat anymore but a reality for Pakistan. Combined with soaring inflation and the country’s continued political instability, this is a recipe for disaster. All these trends are potential catalysts that could trigger climate-induced migration from rural areas to urban centers as Pakistanis seek employment and stable living conditions. This puts an additional strain on massive cities and urban infrastructure that already cannot manage their current population levels.

A Mixed Response

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has also taken notice of Pakistan’s climate change vulnerabilities. In a recent decision, the court noted that that in urban areas in particular, relevant government authorities should take into consideration “adaptation, climate resiliency and sustainability…[as] they are essential to actualize the fundamental rights of the people.”

While some subnational government agencies have been more effective in preparing for climate-related disasters, other have not. In Gilgit Baltistan, the heatwave caused a massive glacial flood, but thanks to continuous monitoring by the relevant local government authorities, people living in vulnerable locations were relocated to safer places before the floods. After the 2020 floods in Karachi, the provincial government decided to address the causes that lead to the severe flooding after the waters subsided. However, their heavy-handed actions — such as tearing down settlements along the nalas, or waterways, that should have drained the flood waters without considering proper plans to resettle or adequately compensate those displaced from the settlements — led to a number of protests from both communities and civil society activists.

It took this heatwave for the Sindh government to notice and take action against the water mafias controlling the city, even though this has been a problem for a decade or more. The water issue connects to the larger issue of natural resource usage and extraction throughout Pakistan, in particular the availability of water, whether it is for agricultural purposes or for consumption. The current heatwave has created an acute water crisis in Sindh, leading to inter-provincial tensions with Punjab — and it’s unclear if there is a resolution in sight .

Pakistan has tried to play a significant role on the international stage, participating in COP26 and signing the global methane pledge. The country is one of the world’s major methane emitters , predominately through its agricultural sector. How this commitment will impact this sector more broadly remains to be seen, especially as Pakistan seeks international financing to meet this commitment. While climate-smart agricultural practices generally save money in the long run, it is important to understand how these changes would impact large-scale farmers and their workers, the latter of whom are one of the most economically disadvantaged groups in country. 

The previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government had a strong advocate in Malik Amin Aslam, who served as the special advisor to the prime minster on climate change. The PTI government made significant strides in their efforts to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change such as committing to having 60% of energy coming from “clean” sources and to having electric vehicles making up 30% of the market by 2030.

The current coalition government, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has smartly continued the trend of strong leadership on climate change by appointing Senator Sherry Rehman , a member of the Pakistan Peoples Party, as minster for climate change. While leadership on this issue is imperative, it is equally important that there is a tangible and sustained collaboration and coordination between the national and provincial governments to develop a roadmap to address the impacts of climate change on the country. Because of devolution in Pakistan, issues like water, food and agriculture, and environment are ones where the provinces have the authority to pass governing legislation, while climate change is a federal issue. This disconnect must be resolved through a more robust system for interprovincial coordination. 

What Pakistan Needs

The PML-N government’s announcement to set up a climate change task force in response to the heatwave is a step in the right direction. But if Pakistan is serious about tackling climate change and investing in mitigation and adaption efforts, what is needed is an overarching framework to coordinate this response. One recent model to look to is Pakistan’s National Command and Operation Center (NCOC), which led the country’s COVID-19 response. A climate-focused NCOC would ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to address the impacts of climate change on the country and appropriate coordination takes place that builds political consensus. This would require relevant provincial and national bodies to come together to work develop a common action plan to address the internal impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the NCOC would spearhead the implementation  of Pakistan’s National Determined Contributions under the Paris Accords because some of these efforts would need provincial buy-in.   

It is unclear if Pakistan’s new climate change task force will carry the same weight as the COVID-19 NCOC. But if it is to succeed, then learning from the successes and failures of the NCOC model is imperative. The COVID-19 NCOC took a whole-of-government approach to tackle the crisis head on. In the beginning there was significant tension between the federal and provincial governments on measures such as the timing and scope of lockdowns and whether provinces had the legal mandate to dictate how businesses functioned during the pandemic. However, in the interest of combatting the pandemic, a delicate understanding between and cooperation among political parties in power in different provinces did eventually occur. 

National and provincial governments are working in lockstep right when it comes to energy conservation. But this cooperation will need to be sustained over the long haul. Unlike COVID-19 where we have vaccines and other mitigation tools, climate change is a significantly more complex challenge that will require long-term coordination and commitment. Almost PKR 10 billion (approximately $50 million) has been allocated to the Ministry of Climate Change under the 2022-23 national budget, a decrease from the PKR 14 billion in the 2021-22 national budget. This change is likely due to the economic situation in the country, but still shows a commitment to the issue and continuity between governments as the PTI government’s signature “10 Billion Tree Tsunami” project received an earmark. 

Alongside these domestic efforts, both the United States and Pakistan should hold a second meeting of the U.S.-Pakistan Climate and Environment Working Group, following the first meeting held in September 2021. This working group could serve as the springboard to begin repairing and resetting the tenuous U.S.-Pakistan relationship as addressing climate change and promoting regional stability is in the interest of both nations.   

All mainstream political parties agree that climate change is threat to Pakistan’s social and economic stability. Addressing climate change in Pakistan truly requires a “ war-footing ” and a whole-of-government approach. Otherwise, the consequences of inaction or improper action could foster greater turmoil and strife for all levels of Pakistani society. 

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Analysis of 2022 Pakistan floods identifies recovery strategies

Washington, DC— Researchers from Stanford University’s Natural Capital Project, including Carnegie collaborators Edgar Virgüez and Ken Caldeira, reviewed the impact of 2022’s flooding in Pakistan, offering insights on how to rebuild with future floods in mind and demonstrating that climate adaptation measures could have helped many of those impacted. Their findings are published in Environmental Research Letters .

Last summer, Pakistan’s Indus River overflowed and swept through the homes of at least 30 million people, killing at least 1,700 and displacing 8 million. The economic cost of the flood’s damage was estimated at $30 billion. The research team worked together to calculate the approximate depths of flooding in different areas and the number of people affected by the natural disaster. This data formed the baseline of their forward-looking analyses.

“We were motivated by these big floods that are happening now every year, to ask: how can we conduct a very high-level assessment of what it would cost to adapt livelihoods to a changing climate?” said first author Rafael Schmitt, a leading scientist at the Natural Capital Project , an interdisciplinary Stanford-led initiative to motivate greater investment in natural resources, including land, water, and biodiversity as national capital. “ This could help countries and international donors evaluate the cost-effectiveness of specific adaptation measures.”

A New Climate Adaptation Decision-Support Tool

The researchers addressed two main options for adapting to future flooding in Pakistan, both of which have been widely implemented across Asia: “moving up” by building elevated structures, or “moving over” by temporarily relocating when floods occur. The depth of flooding–and distance to dry–are important factors for determining which response makes sense. Locations with shallow flood depths that are far from dry land would favor elevating buildings, while flood depths of greater than two meters make elevated structures impractical and too costly.

The team integrated satellite data from flooded locations with hydrologic principles and demographic data on population density, housing, and other infrastructure. This produced a rapid overview of flood severity and exposure.

The researchers estimated that 26.6 million people in Pakistan were exposed to less than 1 meter of water, 7.4 million were exposed to water levels between 1 and 2 meters, and 5.7 million were exposed to more than 2 meters of flooding.

Based on this and proximity to dry land, the researchers determined that there were 5.1 million people for whom the “move over” would be the best solution, 6.3 million people who would be best served by “moving up,” and 27.5 million people for whom either “moving up” or “moving over” could work. Additionally, half a million people were categorized with retreat as their only option. These individuals experienced flood depths greater than 2 meters and they were far from dry land.

Focusing on those who experienced flood depths between 1 and 2 meters, the researcher’s analysis estimated adaptation costs between $1.5-$3.6 billion, in addition to the $5.8 billion to rebuild housing to the status quo. 

"This work demonstrates how a data-driven approach to policy and planning can help communities prepare for the oncoming challenges of climate change,” said Caldeira. “As scientists work hard to help develop climate change mitigation strategies, we can also apply our skills to provide information needed to assess risk and determine the best paths forward to prevent human catastrophes in a warming world.”

Prioritizing Equity and Resilience in Rebuilding Efforts

This research effort only looked at housing, but the team’s analytical tool could also be applied to other types of infrastructure, including roads, schools, and hospitals. And in the future, data from NASA’s Surface Water and Ocean Topography satellite could enhance its abilities.

“The study speaks to the potential to incorporate science-informed adaptation measures into reconstruction and disaster response, helping in investment prioritization,” said Virgüez. “This is particularly useful nowadays with the discussions on mechanisms to compensate countries of the Global South for climate-change-attributed damages.”

The researchers emphasized that tools such as theirs can help ensure that reconstruction funding is directed where it can make the greatest impact, not because it will benefit those with the most influence.  

“Countries of the Global South, like my native Colombia, would benefit from process-based model assessments at scale and in a timely manner that can guide the investments of scarce resources. Especially since many of these countries lack timely-generated data, which complicates strategic decision investments,” Virgüez added. 

An important outcome of the United Nations Climate Conference last year (COP27) was the creation of a new Loss and Damage Fund to provide financial support for countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, the research team urged funders and governments to rebuild with adaptation in mind. To do that, they say, more science should also be directed toward understanding low-cost adaptation options.

“Flood models are data-intensive, and you need specialized knowledge to run them,” Schmitt concluded. “We need adaptation research that is easier to use and act on.”

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• climate change

Pakistan Must Adapt to Climate Change. But Who Will Help Us?

T he record-breaking mega-flood in August 2022 that impacted 33 million people in Pakistan brought home to the world the urgency and scale of the climate crisis afflicting developing countries. At the 27th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP 27), it triggered widespread worry among other countries about the state of preparedness many will have to gear up to—even if, like Pakistan, they remain negligible emitters of the greenhouse gases. In 2022, Pakistan’s pavilion at Sharm-al-Shaikh positioned not just the global connectedness of the crisis by pointing out that “what goes on in Pakistan will not stay in Pakistan,” it also became the hub of the climate finance deficits that are growing exponentially in inverse proportion to global emissions. This has led, in part, to the creation of the Loss and Damage (L&D) fund at the end of the conference.

Yet as G20’s energy ministers remained unable to agree on a roadmap to reduce emissions by July 2023 (even as COP28 approaches) the realization set in that many of us will remain in the frontline of the burn. Pakistan has been home for three successive years where on at least one day temperatures reached 53°C (127.4°F). The hope that we were working with needed a home-grown plan. As heatwaves coupled with slow global action transformed the earth into a red planet in the summer of 2023, Pakistan launched a National Adaptation Plan in July to chart a strategic whole-of government approach with a framework toolkit that allows it to protect its population.

For instance, the province of Sindh, which to this day stands transformed by the 2022 deluge, and recently saw evacuations in the coastal areas from cyclonic activity in a warming Arabian Sea, began its rehabilitation process by transferring new land titles to the women of afflicted households. In all such crises, the most vulnerable always remain the poorest, the women and children, impacted disproportionately by multiple crises of food insecurity, displacement, and disease.

That said, while Sindh is struggling to cope with a cascade of disasters, it will need not just the National Adaptation Plan, but the resources to transform municipal, rural, and agri-water governance for the dangerous decade ahead—all of which needs time, capacity, and liquidity. Similarly, the province of Balochistan has already declared a flood emergency, while the northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is impacted too by a gathering storm.

Read More: ‘I Lost My Son in This Water a Few Days Ago.’ Photos of Pakistan’s Catastrophic Flooding

For countries drowning in extreme weather, exogenous shocks, and high public debt, where will this money come from? Especially in the amount that the World Bank in its 2022 Country Climate and Development Report calculated for Pakistan: a staggering $348 billion by 2030. This is just the number to stay resilient—to keep our heads above water and build sustainability into a climate-adaptive future. All this while a summer of fresh flooding and melting glaciers redefines our lives, our social and economic experiences, into a lifelong struggle to rebuild with resilience while we fight the climate devastations wreaking havoc again.

Who is coming to the rescue of such countries? While U.N. has been in the frontline of immediate relief, even its flash appeals globally remain under-funded. Structural reforms involve pain. We are willing to undergo more pain, especially for enabling resilience, but some amount of change has to come from the Bretton Woods system—the monetary management structure that controls the U.S., Canada, Australia, Western Europe, and Japan—meant to lead the world out of egregious inequality and now climate distress. The financing gap to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in developing countries has enlarged from $2.5 trillion in 2019 to $4.2 trillion in 2023. Add to it the cost of realizing climate goals, and the amount reaches a whopping $5.2 trillion annually .

Our National Adaption Plan (NAP) is designed to build climate-adaptation goals into every aspect of development planning. The international financial system must do the same. As we approach COP 28, the Global Goal on Adaptation remains under-capitalized, while the L&D fund is yet to start functioning. The U.N. Secretary General António Guterres made detailed recommendations in a press conference on July 27 that countries must operationalize and scale up the funding of renewables. Donor countries have been bilaterally supportive but they too need to fulfill their commitment to provide 0.7% of their Gross National Income as development assistance. Multilateral Development Banks should be recapitalized and be enabled to provide portfolio and budgetary support to developing countries, rather than project finance only. They should vastly expand grant and concessional lending to developing countries, enhance the vote and the voice of the developing countries in both International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and link the distribution of new IMF SDRs to development and climate goals.

The transition to a sustainable global economy will require an investment of around $1.5 trillion each year in the developing countries. Business as usual will certainly not work. A large part of this funding pool will have to come from the private sector, which will need new structural incentives to bring their leverage and capital to the business of bending development history. Vulnerable countries cannot attract investment in times of epochal climate distress, but they do need more than band-aid financing. We now need transformational milestones to building global consensus for a financing architecture that can face the 21st century’s rapidly changing conditions that challenge resilience while fueling crippling inequalities.

Critical assistance for the most climate vulnerable countries must not further burden the poor. Actions will be as important as pledges and plans at this point. A real message of change from global leaders would contribute substantially to the success of the forthcoming SDG Summit in September and COP28 in December, and restore trust in global cooperation and international solidarity. Our people are looking to us with renewed hope for action. We must not fail them.

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Guest Essay

What Is Owed to Pakistan, Now One-Third Underwater

By Fatima Bhutto

Ms. Bhutto is a Pakistani writer and the author of the novel “The Runaways.”

We heard the story all the time, told as a warning: When man first set foot on Earth, all the winged animals flew high into the sky, and the fish dived deeper into the sea, scattering in fear because they knew the destroyer of the world had arrived.

What is folklore but prophecy?

Today, one-third of my country, Pakistan, is underwater. After unusually intense monsoon rains fell over several weeks, the waters from flash floods made their way into the Indus, overwhelming the riverbanks. According to climate experts, rapidly melting glaciers caused by rising temperatures added to the downward rushing superflood of epic proportions.

One in seven Pakistanis has been affected, with many sleeping under open skies, without shelter. About 900,000 livestock animals have been lost, and more than two million acres of farmland and 90 percent of crops have been damaged. In some provinces, cotton and rice crops, date trees and sugar cane have been nearly obliterated , and half of the onion, chili and tomato crops, all staple foods, are gone. Over 1,350 people are dead, and some 33 million people (50 million, according to unofficial tallies) have been displaced.

Climate change very likely played a role in the extremely heavy rains, and it definitely played a role in the glacial melt. So you can call these people climate refugees. Remember that phrase. Your country will have them, too.

The worst-hit province, Sindh, in the south, suffers in extremis. It does not appear to have any disaster preparedness or any plans in place to reinforce water infrastructure or the barely functioning sewage system.

The survivors, the majority of whom are poor, must now avoid hunger and disease lurking in the rising, fetid floodwater. More rain is predicted. Much of Sindh is close to sea level, which means that the floodwaters from the north will continue rushing downstream.

Ahsan Iqbal, the minister of planning and development, has called Pakistan a victim of climate change caused by the “irresponsible development of the developed world.” Pakistan has about 2.6 percent of the world’s population and contributes less than 1 percent of global carbon emissions, and yet it has paid a monumental price. As a point of context, the United States accounts for only about 4 percent of the world’s population and yet is responsible for about 13 percent of global carbon emissions.

In 2019, Philip Alston, the United Nations’ special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights at the time, warned that global heating would undermine basic rights to water, food and housing. We faced a future, he said, in which the wealthy will pay to avoid these deprivations while the rest of the world suffers.

The Global North can help the poor of the Global South by taking responsibility for the losses and damage of extreme weather fueled in part by the burning of fossil fuels. The impact of decades of fossil fuel burning is already too severe — and applies too unevenly to the poor — for the Global North to deny culpability.

In 2010, a year that we were also deluged, Pakistan’s Meteorological Department recorded nationwide rains 70 to 102 percent above normal levels. Locally, the numbers were more terrifying. In Khanpur, a city in Punjab, it was 1,483 percent above normal. The rivers swelled, and the Indus and its tributaries soon burst their banks. A dam failure created floodwater lakes. USAID estimated that 1.7 million homes were damaged and more than 20 million people were affected. The economic losses were around $11 billion , and a fifth of the country was affected.

Today’s superflood may well prove to be worse; at one point in Sindh Province, rainfall was 508 percent above average.

The International Monetary Fund has released $1.17 billion in funds to Pakistan that was allocated for a government bailout in 2019. The secretary general of the U.N. has asked member states to give $160 million. But I.M.F. money comes with painful strings attached for countries like Pakistan, and it will not be enough to rebuild or to prevent other disasters. This is climate change. It is relentless and furious, and this is not the worst we have seen of it.

The lack of attention to Pakistan is heartbreaking: Too few major international cultural figures are speaking up for us in this moment of crisis. It is either a snide form of racism — that terrible things happen to places like Pakistan — or an utter failure of compassion. But Pakistan has long been a cipher, a warning for the world, just like those old stories. And so the wealthy world would do well to pay attention. The horrors that Pakistan is struggling with today could soon come for everyone.

Fatima Bhutto is a Pakistani writer and the author of the novel “The Runaways.”

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips . And here’s our email: [email protected] .

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The future is in danger

Climate change is the most important issue of our age; we are the first to see its early warning signals and the last to have a chance to prevent it from occurring. Living in a bubble of ignorance can only get us so far; our globe is indeed a scene of melting glaciers, rising floods, animal extinctions, extreme weather events and the list continues. Spreading climate change awareness using every way possible, including seemingly insignificant forms such as writing school essays, cannot be overstated.

Climate change has put a lot of countries at hazard, and the risk is significantly larger for developing countries. Because of this serious problem, which is having a severe impact on the area, South Asia has grown more disaster-prone. In general, climate change is accelerating and having severe consequences for Pakistan.

Pakistan is geologically located in a region where the effects of climate change are being felt fairly strongly. This climate disaster has had enormous economic, social, and environmental consequences. Statistics from the 2010 floods demonstrate the devastating effects on the 20 million individuals who lost their homes, were injured, or went missing. Similarly, another flood in Pakistan in 2012 wreaked havoc.

Climate change puts Pakistan’s income, housing, food, and security at danger. Considering the tough facts, the Pakistani government must take urgent measures to combat the detrimental effects of climate change. Without a doubt, the authorities are paying close attention to this problem, which they see as sensitive and serious.

Pakistan faces “significantly higher average temperatures than the global average, with a potential rise of 1.3°C-4.9°C by the 2090s over the 1986-2005 baseline,” according to a study, which also noted that Pakistan had “some of the highest disaster risk levels in the world, ranked 18 out of 191 countries by the 2020 Inform Risk Index.”

Under the most optimistic emission scenarios, the global average temperature rise by 2080-99 will be around 3.7°C. Furthermore, changes in Pakistan’s hydrologic regimens, and hence its water supplies, are largely unknown, although dry situations are projected to become more common. Extreme climatic events are expected to become more common and intense, increasing catastrophe risk, particularly for the poor and minority populations.

Including an average monthly maximum of roughly 27°C and an average June maximum of 36°C, Pakistan often witnessed some of the world’s greatest maximum temperatures. In Pakistan, the current median yearly likelihood of a heat wave happening in any specific region is roughly 3 percent. As seen by estimates that over 65,000 individuals were hospitalized with heatstroke during Pakistan’s 2015 heatwave, a huge section of the population is at danger.

Communities offer to the problem of improving resilience and tackling climate change unique views, skills, and a wealth of information. Rather than being seen as recipients, they should be treated as participants in developing resilience. Community leaders may define goals, influence ownership, and create and administer investment programmes that are responsive to their community’s needs, according to research and experience.

Many parts of Pakistan endure yearly temperatures of 38°C or more, and when weather patterns combine to produce protracted periods of heatwave, major human health consequences can occur. Between 1997 and 2015, Pakistan witnessed 126 heatwaves, an average of seven each year, with an upward trend.

Pakistan is a low-middle-income country with a primarily agrarian economy; however, it is gradually industrializing and more than a third of the population currently lives in cities. For food and nutrition security, the country significantly relies on its climate-sensitive land, wa ter, and forest resources. Agriculture continues to be a significant occupation for 42 percent of the population. Irrigation from the glacier-fed River Indus and its tributaries supports about 90 percent of farmland. Glacier melt has accelerated due to climate change, increasing the likelihood of glacier lake outpouring floods (GLOF) and mudslides downstream. Faster glacier melt, rising temperatures, shifting seasons, and irregular rainfall patterns are all affecting the flow of the River Indus, which will have a growing impact on agriculture, food production, and lives. Already, 39 percent of the population lives in poverty, and the loss of livelihoods indicated in this research will have a significant impact on people’s health and capacity to access healthcare.

Heat fatigue, starvation, the introduction of vector-borne diseases like dengue fever, and an increase in the burden of aquatic infections will all have an impact on people’s capacity to work and make a living.

Migrants, internally displaced individuals, and religious and ethnic minorities will be particularly susceptible, since they are frequently confined to hazard-prone land and face challenges to treatment, including financial constraints resulting from informal work. Child marriages, early births, and domestic violence may become more common as a result of climate change. Due to decreasing food production, women and children will be more prone to malnourishment and malnutrition.

Smog is another major issue in Pakistan’s industrialized eastern Punjab region, where the provincial capital, Lahore, is clogged with smoke throughout the winter months. Authorities said they are working to solve the problem, which involves thousands of brick kilns.

Millions of impoverished people will confront significant problems as the climate changes, including severe events, health consequences, social protection, economic stability, mobility, water security, cultural heritage, and other dangers.

Climate change is inextricably linked to global inequality patterns. Climate change harms the most vulnerable individuals the most, although they contribute the least to the catastrophe. Millions of vulnerable people are facing disproportionate problems as the effects of climate change worsen in terms of severe events, health effects, food security, economic assurance, water security, and cultural identity. Female-headed families, children, persons with disabilities, Indigenous Peoples and ethnic minorities, landless tenants, migrant workers, displaced persons, sexual and gender minorities, older people, and other socially excluded groups are all highly prone to disasters. Their vulnerability stems from a variety of factors, including their geographic location, financial, socioeconomic, cultural, and gender status, as well as their access to medical care, decision-making, and justice.

Poor and oppressed people are demanding for more aggressive climate action. Climate change is more than an environmental disaster; it is also a social crisis that requires us to confront issues of inequality on many levels: between rich and poor nations; between men and women; and between generations. For more effective development outcomes, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has underlined the need for climate solutions that adhere to climate justice principles (i.e., recognition, procedural, and distributive justice).

Climate change mitigation initiatives frequently disproportionately affect the most disadvantaged. Climate change adaptation measures can impose a greater financial burden on poor households in the absence of well-designed and supportive policies; for example, policies to expand public transportation or carbon pricing may result in higher public transportation fares, which will disproportionately affect poorer households. Similarly, restricting forestry activities to particular periods of the year might have an impact on indigenous populations that rely on woods for their livelihoods all year. In addition to addressing the distributional effects of decarbonizing economies, there is a need to understand and address social inclusion, cultural, and political economy issues, such as deciding on the types of transitions required (economic, social, etc.) and identifying opportunities to address social inequality during these processes.

Furthermore, communities offer to the problem of improving resilience and tackling climate change unique views, skills, and a wealth of information. Rather than being seen as recipients, they should be treated as participants in developing resilience. Community leaders may define goals, influence ownership, and create and administer investment programmes that are responsive to their community’s needs, according to research and experience.

In creating climate resilience, the IPCC’s newest report highlights the relevance of many types of knowledge such as scientific, Indigenous, and local knowledge. Communities and marginalized people may be connected to higher-level policy, technical, and financial support for locally relevant and successful development outcomes through innovations in climate finance architecture.

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‘Perfect climate storm’: Pakistan reels from extreme heat

‘Torrid’ heatwave with temperatures reaching mid-40°s Celsius has renewed debate over the climate change crisis in Pakistan.

Lahore, Pakistan – In the capital of Pakistan’s largest province Punjab, residents such as Muhammad Junaid say the ongoing heatwave has felt “very sudden and unexpected”.

A tailor living in one of Lahore’s Katchi Abadis (shanty towns), Junaid told Al Jazeera the 40 degree Celsius (104 degree Fahrenheit) and above temperatures, combined with hours-long power shortages, have created an “unbearable” situation at home.

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“We are eight people living in three rooms… The children get easily frustrated in this heat together with the load shedding [power outages]… Sometimes they can’t help but cry,” he said.

Since April, South Asian nations have been experiencing an unpredictable heatwave that has seen some areas touch 50°C (104°F).

“This is a freak weather phenomenon that has completely shaved off the spring season in Pakistan,” former climate change minister Malik Amin Aslam told Al Jazeera.

Speaking by phone from the capital Islamabad, Aslam said temperatures were “6-7° higher than normal at this time. What we see happening most definitely is due to climate change,” he added.

Scientists have long warned the climate crisis will lead to more intense weather – including floods, droughts and heatwaves.

A UN agency reported earlier this week that key indicators of climate change – including greenhouse concentrations and ocean heat – had been higher compared with 2021.

“The global energy system is broken and bringing us ever closer to climate catastrophe,” the World Meteorological Organization said.

8th most affected country

According to the Global Climate Risk Index published by non-profit group Germanwatch , Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable nations in the world when it comes to the effects of climate change over the past two decades.

Between 2000 and 2019, the Germany-based organisation ranked Pakistan as the 8th most affected country. During this period, the sub-continent nation lost on average 500 lives annually as a result, or 10,000 over the course of the whole period, the group said.

One of the most alarming effects of the “torrid” heatwave is the accelerated melting of Pakistan’s glaciers in the north, according to Aslam.

A few days ago @ClimateChangePK had warned that Pakistan’s vulnerability is high due to high temps. Hassanabad bridge on the KKH collapsed due to GLOF from the melting Shisper glacier which caused erosion under pillars. Am told FWO will have a temporary bridge up in 48 hours. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/Sjl9QIMI0G — SenatorSherryRehman (@sherryrehman) May 7, 2022

Earlier this month, the Hassanabad bridge in the northern Hunza Valley was destroyed because of a glacial lake outburst flood at the Shisper Glacier – leading to flashfloods – and leaving tourists and locals stranded.

“Last year we [the previous government] had made special drainage channels around the glacier to let the drainage happen – but the lake burst was so huge it broke through it as well,” said Aslam.

Pakistan has more than 7,000 glaciers – one of the highest numbers in the world – many of them in the Himalayan region.

A University of Leeds study published in December found the ice from glaciers in the Himalayas was melting “at least 10 times higher than the average rate over past centuries” a result of human-induced climate change.

Moreover, the researchers reported the Himalayas, which also covers other countries in South Asia such as Nepal and India, had lost 40 percent of their ice over several hundred years.

“What Pakistan is experiencing is a perfect climate storm,” Aslam said. “It is very alarming and there is nothing we can do about this. The country cannot simply go out and turn off the greenhouse gases.”

Effect on crops

Experts have warned the unexpected heatwave is also affecting the agriculture sector in the country.

Amanullah Khan, head of the environment and climate change unit at the UN Development Programme in Pakistan, told Al Jazeera while the country’s crops are used to high temperatures, the issue was the heatwave arriving earlier than expected.

“It’s not as if the agriculture of this country has not seen temperatures of 41°C or 43°C – the problem is that crops need certain temperatures at a certain time of their growth,” he said from Islamabad.

“If the heat arrives earlier the usual, this will manifest in the country not producing good crops such as wheat,” Khan noted, adding Pakistan imported wheat last year , despite being a net exporter for many years. He cited climate change as one of the main reasons.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s mango harvest has also been affected, with some local experts claiming a drop of nearly 60 percent in production.

The patron-in-chief of the All Pakistan Fruit & Vegetable Exporters, Importers & Merchants Association Waheed Ahmed told Al Jazeera his group had reduced its export target by 25,000 tonnes this season, a 20 percent drop.

Speaking from Lahore, Ahmed added similar shortfalls can be expected later this year in the “production of green vegetables, sugarcane and other crops”.

Furthermore, Ahmed said continuing water shortages were further deepening food security in the country.

Earlier this month, Pakistan was ranked among the top 23 countries in the world by the UN facing drought emergencies over the past two years.

The report published by the UN Conven­tion to Combat Desertifica­tion said droughts – a result of low precipitation and exacerbated by higher than normal temperatures – were a major driver of “crop yield volatility”, leading to low yields and resulting in “substantial financial losses”.

‘No choice’

Junaid the tailor said unlike more affluent households, he and his family had few financial resources to mitigate the effects of the heatwave, made worse by the ongoing power outages in the province and elsewhere.

“We have no money to buy an air-conditioner. We rely on fans and cheap coolers … but when there is no electricity for several hours, we have nothing to stay cool with. We just have to live with it,” he lamented.

“We can’t afford a UPS [uninterruptible power supply] or generator as a backup when the load shedding starts.”

A climate study published in February found in the 2010s exposure to heatwaves for the “poorest quarter of the world … was more than 40 greater than in the wealthiest quarter”, citing a lack of access to heat adaptation facilities such as air conditioning and the resources to run them.

“Adaptation measures, such as cooling centres … can lower a population’s heat exposure impact. However, a country’s ability to implement adaptation measures generally depends on its financial resources, governance, culture and knowledge. Poverty affects each,” the authors wrote for the media and research outlet The Conversation.

Nevertheless, for low-income labourers in Pakistan who work outdoors, the heatwave is a secondary concern.

“We have no choice but to continue working the same long hours no matter how hot it gets … to support our families,” Muhammad Zubair, a tea seller told Al Jazeera, adding his regular 10-12-hour workdays remain unchanged.

Arshad, a day labourer who makes between 500-1,200 rupees a day (US$2-$6) told Al Jazeera the government should ensure continuous employment for temporary workers like him.

The father of three said he had not found a paid job for nine consecutive days between April and May, all the while sitting outside for eight or nine hours at a busy intersection in Lahore, hoping someone would hire him.

“The heat is bad but it will always be there… It can’t stop us from trying not to go hungry.”

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• Climate change ‘likely’ increased extreme rainfall that led to Pakistan flooding

Multiple Authors

The record-breaking monsoon rainfall that led to severe flooding in Pakistan this summer was “likely increased” by climate change, a new “rapid-attribution” study finds.

Over June-August 2022, Pakistan received nearly 190% more rain than its 30-year average. On 25 August, the government declared a national emergency after catastrophic flooding that affected more than 33 million people, destroyed 1.7m homes , and led to nearly 1,400 deaths (pdf).

The flooding caused an estimated $30bn (£26bn) in financial losses , with further economic disruption expected in the months to come.  

The heavy rainfall experienced in Pakistan this summer has “approximately a 1% chance of happening” in any individual year in today’s climate, according to the study’s authors. Although this estimate “comes with a large range of uncertainty”, they add. 

The authors conclude that a five-day period of rainfall that hit the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan in late August is now about 75% more intense than it would have been had the climate not warmed by 1.2C.

The study also highlights the need for climate resilience in vulnerable communities. One author told a press briefing that “the disaster was a result of vulnerability constructed over a number of years and it shouldn’t be seen historically as the outcome of just one kind of sudden or sporadic weather event”.

‘Monsoon on steroids’

Every summer, a shift in wind patterns draws moist air across south Asia, causing heavy rainfall over the region. The monsoon can produce up to three-quarters of Pakistan’s annual rainfall, and often causes localised flooding across the country. In the summer of 2022, record-breaking rainfall brought an unprecedented humanitarian crisis to the country.

Over June-August 2022, Pakistan received nearly 190% more rain than its 30-year average. The southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan were the worst affected – receiving 726% and 590% of their normal August rainfall , respectively.

The heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding, which was exacerbated when the Indus river – which runs the length of the country – burst its banks .

(It has been widely reported that floods covered one third of the country . However, this statistic refers to the proportion of Pakistan’s districts that had declared a “calamity” because of the floods. Nonetheless, estimates suggest 10-12% of the country’s land area was flooded, affecting more than 33 million people – around 15% of the country’s population.)

On 25 August , the government of Pakistan declared a national emergency, calling 66 districts – mainly in Balochistan and Sindh – “calamity hit”. ​​On 30 August, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres launched a $160m appeal to support Pakistan, urging the world to help victims of the country’s “monsoon on steroids”.

The Pakistani people are facing a monsoon on steroids. More than 1000 people have been killed – with millions more lives shattered. This colossal crisis requires urgent, collective action to help the Government & people of Pakistan in their hour of need. pic.twitter.com/aVFFy4Irwa — António Guterres (@antonioguterres) August 30, 2022

The flood is estimated to have caused more than $30bn in damages. Around 1.7m houses and 18,000 schools were destroyed, while more than 1,460 health facilities were impacted. Meanwhile, almost 800,000 livestock were killed and 2m hectares of crops and orchards were affected – with around $2.3bn of food crops destroyed.

WHO is responding as districts in #Pakistan 🇵🇰 continue to be affected by unprecedented levels of flooding. The impact of the heavy monsoon ⛈️ rains is drastic, affecting 3⃣3⃣ million people in 116 districts across the country. 📌 https://t.co/iUkHk3m2Ig pic.twitter.com/yQ9uwJIoGR — World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) August 31, 2022

As the rainfall abated, millions of people were left stranded in the open water without shelter or food – leaving them vulnerable to disease. “The timing couldn’t be worse,” the UN warned , “as aid agencies have warned of an uptick in waterborne and deadly diseases”.

Sindh and Balochistan have since seen outbreaks of conditions including cholera, malaria and skin infections. By early September, more than 6.4 million people were “in dire need of humanitarian aid”.

The media and general public were quick to link Pakistan’s floods to climate change. Sherry Rehman – Pakistan’s minister of climate change said :

“I wince when I hear people say these are natural disasters. This is very much the age of the anthropocene: these are man-made disasters.”

Southern provinces

Pakistan’s flooding was mainly caused by prolonged rainfall that hit the country in a series of “monsoonal depressions ”, the study says. These depressions – regions of low pressure – travel from the Bay of Bengal over the Indo-Gangetic plains, causing rainfall over the eastern upper Indus basin.

Pakistan was affected by eight depressions in the summer of 2022, although the study notes that it “is usually not affected by monsoon low pressure systems”. 

While these depressions usually travel towards the north of the country over the monsoon season, all eight tracks moved over the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan this year – drawing heavy rainfall over southern Pakistan.

The map below shows the tracks of the eight monsoon depressions.

Dr Fahad Saeed , the regional lead for south Asia and the Middle East at Climate Analytics , told a press briefing that the heatwave over March and April – which was made 30 times more likely by climate change – “brought the depressions from the Bay of Bengal towards the southern provinces”.

(The heatwave also accelerated melting from the country’s 7,000 glaciers, which feed into the Indus river. However, the study notes that “the relative contribution of glacial meltwater to the flooding is unknown and likely much smaller than the rainfall itself”.)

The intense rainfall was also driven in part by a La Niña event , which caused warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern ocean, providing additional moisture to feed the monsoon depressions, according to the study. 

To investigate both the prolonged rainfall and the short, heavy bursts, the scientists defined two regions over different periods of time – the 60-day period of heaviest rainfall over the Indus river basin, and the five-day period of heaviest rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan.

The map below (left) shows the average rainfall in the Indus basin for July and August, where darker blues indicate more intense rainfall. The map on the right shows the highest five-day average seen during summer over the Sindh and Balochistan provinces together (22 to26 August).

The red outlines indicate the areas analysed in the study – the Indus basin and the Sindh and Balochistan provinces.

Attribution is a fast-growing field of climate science that aims to identify the “fingerprint” of climate change on extreme-weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts.

The authors started by putting this summer’s extreme rainfall into its historical context by analysing an observed dataset of rainfall that stretches back for decades.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department provided daily rainfall data over 1961-2017 from 47 stations. The plots below show a timeseries of average rainfall during July to September over the whole of Pakistan (top) and the southern region – made up of Balochistan and Sindh (bottom). The different colours indicate different datasets.

The authors conclude that five-day maximum rainfall over the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan is now about 75% more intense than it would have been had the climate not warmed by 1.2C. Meanwhile, the 60-day rain across the basin is now about 50% more intense. 

However, Dr Sjoukje Philip – a researcher at the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and author on the study – told the press briefing that there is “large uncertainty” in this conclusion as rainfall in the country is highly variable .

(See Carbon Brief ’s guest post for more details on monsoon variability.)

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The historical data also shows that both the 60-day and five-day rainfall extremes are likely to happen once every 100 years in today’s climate, the study says.

The authors then combined observational data with climate models to determine the role of climate change on this extreme rainfall. The scientists used models to compare the world as it is to a “counterfactual” world without human-caused climate change in order to distinguish the “signal” of climate change in Pakistan’s rainfall from natural variability.

The authors conclude that climate change “likely increased the intense rainfall” that contributed to the Pakistan flooding.

Prof Friederike Otto – a senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London , and author on the study – told a press conference that there are different conclusions for the five- and 60-day rainfall extremes because the different durations “relate to quite different meteorological phenomena”.

The authors find that for the five-day rainfall extreme, some models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity by up to 50%. However, they add that “uncertainty remains very large for the 60-day monsoon rainfall”. 

Philip noted that it is “very difficult to accurately simulate” rainfall over Pakistan due to its high variability. This means, for example, that “many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics”, and only “a few” of the 31 models available were suitable for use in this study.

The study adds that “for a climate 2C warmer than in pre-industrial times , models suggest that rainfall intensity will significantly increase further for the five-day event”.

(The findings are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, the methods used in the analysis have been published in  previous attribution studies .)

Vulnerability

While a mix of physical events was involved in the extreme flooding, the study authors also highlight the role of exposure and vulnerability.

In addition to the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure and agricultural land to flood plains, the factors driving the impacts of the floods include “limited ex-ante [pre-event] risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by poverty, socioeconomic factors that disadvantage women and ongoing political and economic instability”, the study says. 

The diagram below provides a visual representation of the household factors (HH) contributing to vulnerability to floods in Pakistan.

Following flooding in 2010 which killed more than 1,700 people (pdf), a report (pdf) commissioned by the Pakistani Supreme Court concluded that, in addition to weather events, “that most damage was caused by dam and barrage-related backwater effects, reduced water and sediment conveyance capacity and multiple failures of irrigation system levees”.

The study notes that Pakistan typically prioritises flood barriers, reservoirs, canals and barrages for flood management – often at the expense of social and environmental considerations.

This has created a number of drainage problems followed by more technical solutions in the Basin, including vulnerability to drainage “failures”, even during non-flood years , the study says. One of the study’s co-authors, Dr Ayesha Siddiqi from Royal Holloway, University of London , told a press briefing:

“The worst damage was not actually from the rainfall itself, but from dam and barrage related issues…The disaster was a result of vulnerability constructed over a number of years and it shouldn’t be seen historically as the outcome of just one kind of sudden or sporadic weather event.”

Beyond these problems, there is also a wider conversation taking place on Pakistan’s engineering priorities, which favour irrigation and power generation with flood control as an afterthought . This needs to be re-considered “in favour of a more decolonial approach”, the study authors write.

The recent flooding has also sparked discussions about climate justice , with Rehman – among others – pointing out that while Pakistan is responsible for less than 1% of total human-produced emissions, it is the 18th most vulnerable country to climate impacts in the world.

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Region: Asia and the Pacific

Impact of Climate Change on the Migration and Displacement Dynamics of Rohingya Refugees

Research report and briefing paper.

In the disaster-prone Asia-Pacific region, particularly in South Asia, the frequency and intensity of environmental hazards, exacerbated by climate change, pose significant risks. Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, with floods being the primary driver, recorded the highest number of disaster displacements in 2022. The emerging impact of climate change on the displacement and migration dynamics of Rohingya is increasingly relevant. Climate change introduces additional layers of challenges to the already dire situation of the Rohingya, particularly in Bangladesh and neighbouring countries, where they seek refuge. Drawing from extensive data, this report sheds light on the intersection between climate change and (im)mobility for the Rohingya, aiming to provide evidence for better protection of Rohingya refugees in the context of climate change and conflict.

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Weather forecasters warn Pakistanis to stay indoors ahead of new heat wave

Authorities in Pakistan urged people to stay indoors as the country is hit by an extreme heat wave that threatens to bring dangerously high temperatures and yet another round of glacial-driven floods

ISLAMABAD — Authorities in Pakistan on Tuesday urged people to stay indoors as the country is hit by an extreme heat wave that threatens to bring dangerously high temperatures and yet another round of glacial-driven floods.

Pakistan’s most populous province, Punjab, is shutting all schools for a week because of the heat, affecting an estimated 18 million students.

“The sweltering heat will continue this month,” said Zaheer Ahmed Babar, a senior official at the Pakistan Meteorological Department. He added that temperatures could reach up to 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 Fahrenheit) above the monthly average. This week could rise above 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in many parts of the country, Babar said.

It’s the latest climate-related disaster to hit the country in recent years. Melting glaciers and growing monsoons have caused devastating floods, at one point submerging a third of the country.

Pakistan recorded its wettest April since 1961, with more than double the usual monthly rainfall, according to the national weather center. Last month’s heavy rains killed scores of people while destroyed property and farmland , experts say the country witnessed heavier rains because of climate change .

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Pakistan is still trying to recover from $30 billion in losses caused by devastating climate-induced floods that killed 1,739 people in 2022.

According to health officials, hospitals were instructed to set up emergency heatwave response centers so that those affected by the scorching temperatures could be quickly treated.

Doctors say heatstroke is a serious illness that occurs when one’s body temperature rises quickly because of sweltering heat, potentially causing some to fall unconscious. A severe heatstroke can cause disability or death.

Some areas in Pakistan are also currently facing hours-long power outages.

“We were without electricity for hours on Monday,” said Ibrar Abbasi, who lives on the outskirts of Islamabad.

Scientists have long warned that climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and certain agricultural practices, will lead to more frequent and prolonged bouts of extreme weather, including hotter temperatures.

Babar said another intense heat wave will hit the country in June, when the temperature is likely to reach 45 degrees (113 Fahrenheit). He said people should drink a lot of water and avoid unnecessary travel. Farmers and other livestock owners should take measures to protect their animals during extreme heat, he said.

However, many people, especially laborers and construction workers in the impoverished nation, ask how they can stay indoors as their families will suffer if they don’t work.

“I am not feeling well because of the stifling heat, but I have to work,” said Ghulam Farid, who owns a small general store in Sheikhupra, a city in Punjab province.

Construction workers were seen sitting near a road on the outskirts of the capital, Islamabad, hoping to get a job. Among them was Mohammad Khursheed, 52, who said he has noticed a change in the patterns of seasons.

“I feel the heat even in the morning, but people say the temperatures will go up even further,” he said.

Associated Press writer Babar Dogar contributed to this story from Lahore, Pakistan.

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Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across Asia more frequent and extreme

Throughout April and continuing into May 2024, extreme record-breaking heat led to severe impacts across the Asian continent.

From Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, in the West, to Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines in the East, large regions of Asia experienced temperatures well above 40°C for many days. The heat was particularly difficult for people living in refugee camps and informal housing, as well as for outdoor workers.

Heatwaves are arguably the deadliest type of extreme weather event and while the death toll is often underreported, hundreds of deaths have been reported already in most of the affected countries, including Palestine, Bangladesh, India, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and the Philippines. The heat also had a large impact on agriculture, causing crop damage and reduced yields, as well as on education, with holidays having to be extended and schools closed in several countries, affecting millions of students. 

Extreme heat in South Asia during the pre-monsoon season is becoming more frequent. Two previous World Weather Attribution studies focused on extreme heat events in the region: the 2022 India and Pakistan heatwave and the 2023 humid heatwave that hit India, Bangladesh, Lao PDR and Thailand . Despite differences in the nature and impact of the events (drier heat in 2022 leading to widespread loss of harvest, and humid heat in 2023 with greater impacts on  people), both studies found that human-induced climate change influenced the events, making them around 30 times more likely and much hotter.

Scientists from Lebanon, Sweden, Malaysia, the Netherlands, the United States  and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme heat in three Asian regions: 1) West Asia, including Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine and Jordan; 2) the Philippines in East Asia; and 3) South and Southeast Asia, including India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. 

Using published peer-reviewed methods , the scientists analysed how human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the 3-day April heatwave in West Asia and a 15-day April heatwave in the Philippines. Figure 1 shows these two regions, outlined in blue, while figure 2 shows the South Asia region. For this region, the analysis focused on observed weather data, but not climate models, as the affected region largely overlaps with the study areas of the previous studies. The observational data for the whole month of April confirmed that the role of climate change is likely of similar magnitude to the heatwaves studied in 2022 and 2023, and the results of a full attribution analysis would not be significantly different. 

Main Findings

• The heatwave exacerbated already precarious conditions faced by internally displaced people, migrants and those in refugee camps and conflict zones across West Asia. In Gaza, extreme heat worsened the living conditions of 1.7 million displaced people. The heatwave added pressure to the many challenges already faced by people in refugee camps and conflict zones, such as water shortages, difficulties to access medicines and poor living conditions for the large population that lives in makeshift tents that trap heat. With limited institutional support and options to adapt, the heat increases health risks and hardship. 
• The extreme heat has forced thousands of schools to close down in South and Southeast Asia. These regions have previously also incurred school lockdowns during COVID-19, increasing the education gap faced by children from low-income families, enhancing the risk of dropouts, and negatively impacts the development of human capital.
• Heat impacts certain groups like construction workers, transport drivers, farmers, fishermen etc. disproportionately. It both impacts their livelihoods and causes a reduction in income, and results in personal health risks.
• In the current climate, warmed by 1.2°C since pre-industrial times due to human activities, this kind of extreme heat event is not very rare. In West Asia, the chance of it occurring in any given year is around 10% – or once every 10 years. In the Philippines, the chance of such an event happening in any given year is also around 10% – or once every 10 years under the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, and a 1-in-20 year event, overall, without the influence of El Niño. In the larger South Asia region, an extremely warm April such as this one is a somewhat rarer event, with a 3% probability of happening in a given year – or once every 30 years.
• To estimate the influence that human-caused climate change has had on extreme heat in West Asia and the Philippines, we combine climate models with observations. Observations and models both show a strong increase in likelihood and intensity. In the Philippines, the change in likelihood is so large that the event would have been impossible without human-caused climate change. In West Asia, climate change increased the probability of the event by about a factor of 5.
• In terms of intensity, we estimate that a heatwave such as this one in West Asia is today about 1.7°C warmer than it would have been without the burning of fossil fuels. In the Philippines the intensity increase due to human-induced climate change is about 1.2°C.
• We also look at the role of the ENSO. In the Philippines, we find that the current El Niño made the heatwave about 0.2°C hotter. In West Asia, on the other hand, we do not find any influence of ENSO in the event, which is consistent with previous research.  
• If the world warms to 2°C above pre-industrial global mean temperatures, in both regions the likelihood of the extreme heat would increase further, by a factor of 2 in West Asia and 5 over the Philippines, while the temperatures will become another 1°C hotter in West Asia and 0.7°C hotter in the Philippines.
• In South Asia, a region that we have studied twice in the last two years, our analysis was simpler and based only on observations. Similarly to what we found in previous studies, we observe a strong climate change signal in the 2024 April mean temperature. We find  that these extreme temperatures are now about 45 times more likely and 0.85ºC hotter. These results align with our previous studies, where we found that climate change made the extreme heat about 30 times more likely and 1ºC hotter. 
• Existing heatwave action plans and strategies are challenged by rapidly growing cities, increase in informal settlements and exposed populations, reduction in green spaces and rise in energy demands. While many cities have been implementing solutions like cool roofs, nature based infrastructure design, and adherence to climate risk informed building codes, there is limited focus on retrofitting and upgrading of existing buildings and settlements, with infrastructure deficits (e.g. asbestos roofs), to make them more liveable.
• Some countries such as India have comprehensive heat action plans in place, yet to protect some of the most vulnerable people, these must be expanded with mandatory regulations, such as workplace interventions for all workers to address heat stress, such as scheduled rest breaks, fixed work hours, and rest-shade-rehydrate programs (RSH) are necessary, but yet to become part of worker protection guidelines in the affected regions.
• The recurrent heat events and associated impacts every year in these regions in the past few years have enabled heatwaves to be recognised as a serious hazard of concern in most countries, with proper guidelines and action plans in place. At the same time, cross-sectoral collaborative strategies that focus on providing immediate relief during the hot days are needed. 

Cold spells

Unusual cold spells can occur even in a warming world, and cause disruption to transport, energy & food supplies.

Drought affects people in many ways, from reduced water & food supplies to increasing the risk of wildfires.

Extreme rainfall

Rainfall events from a major storm or hurricane, or intense localised downpours can lead to flooding in any type of location.

Heatwaves can be particularly dangerous to humans, and occur all over the world with increasing intensity.

• Download the full study: Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across  Asia more frequent and extreme (35 pages, 4.39 MB)

Guide for journalists

• Reporting extreme weather and climate change: a guide for journalists  – in a number of languages)

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• Copy URL https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/pakistan-heatwave-sends-hundreds-to-hospitals

Pakistan heatwave sends hundreds to hospitals

ISLAMABAD (AP) — Doctors treated hundreds of victims of heatstroke at hospitals across Pakistan on Thursday after an intense heatwave sent temperatures above normal levels due to climate change, officials said.

Temperatures soared as high as 49 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit) the previous day in Mohenjo Daro. The city, known for its archaeological sites, is in southern Sindh province, which was badly hit by climate-induced monsoon rains and devastating floods in 2022. The heatwave is forecast to continue for at least a week.

Authorities have urged people to stay indoors, hydrate and avoid unnecessary travel. But laborers say they don’t have a choice because they need to work to feed their families.

“Pakistan is the fifth most vulnerable country to the impact of climate change. We have witnessed above normal rains, floods,” Rubina Khursheed Alam, the prime minister’s coordinator on climate, said at a news conference in the capital, Islamabad.

Barakullah Khan, a civil defense official, asked people not to place cooking gas cylinders in open areas as a safety measure. He warned those living near fields that snakes and scorpions could enter homes and storage places in search of cooler places.

This month, temperatures are likely to soar to 55 C (131 F), weather forecasters said.

Doctors say they treated hundreds of patients in the eastern city of Lahore, while scores of people were brought to hospitals in Hyderabad, Larkana and Jacobabad districts in the southern Sindh province.

“The situation has been getting worse since yesterday, when people affected by heat started coming to hospitals in the Punjab province,” said Ghulam Farid, a senior health official. Pakistan has set up emergency response centers at hospitals to treat patients affected by the heat.

The state-run ambulance service is now carrying bottled water and ice to provide emergency treatment to victims of the heat, health officials said.

The United Nations children’s agency appealed for children to be protected from the heat.

“UNICEF is deeply concerned about the health and safety of babies and young children as debilitating heatwave conditions take hold in several countries,” said Sanjay Wijesekera, UNICEF regional director for South Asia. He said the increasing temperatures across the region could put millions of children’s health at risk if they are not protected and hydrated.

Heatstroke is a serious illness that occurs when one’s body temperature rises too quickly, potentially causing some to fall unconscious. Severe heatstroke can cause disability or death.

This year, Pakistan recorded its wettest April since 1961, with more than double the usual monthly rainfall. Last month’s heavy rains killed scores of people while destroyed property and farmland.

Daytime temperatures are soaring 8 degrees Celsius (46 degrees Fahrenheit) above May’s temperatures, raising fears of flooding in the northwest because of glacial melting.

The 2022 floods caused extensive damage in Sindh and Baluchistan provinces, as 1,739 people were killed across the country.

Currently, Pakistan’s southwest and northwestern areas are also experiencing the heatwave.

Authorities have shut schools for a week in Punjab. In the city of Lahore people were seen swimming in the roadside canals. Pakistan says despite contributing less than 1% to carbon emissions, it is bearing the brunt of global climate disasters.

Alam said recent erratic changes in weather patterns were the result of man-made climate change.

Associated Press writer Babar Dogar contributed to this story from Lahore, Pakistan.

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Doctors treat hundreds of victims of heatstroke in Pakistan after heatwave hits the country

ISLAMABAD (AP) — Doctors treated hundreds of victims of heatstroke at hospitals across Pakistan on Thursday after an intense heatwave sent temperatures above normal levels due to climate change, officials said.

Temperatures soared as high as 49 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit) the previous day in Mohenjo Daro. The city, known for its archaeological sites, is in southern Sindh province, which was badly hit by climate-induced monsoon rains and devastating floods in 2022. The heatwave is forecast to continue for at least a week.

Authorities have urged people to stay indoors, hydrate and avoid unnecessary travel. But laborers say they don't have a choice because they need to work to feed their families.

“Pakistan is the fifth most vulnerable country to the impact of climate change. We have witnessed above normal rains, floods,” Rubina Khursheed Alam, the prime minister’s coordinator on climate, said at a news conference in the capital, Islamabad.

Barakullah Khan, a civil defense official, asked people not to place cooking gas cylinders in open areas as a safety measure. He warned those living near fields that snakes and scorpions could enter homes and storage places in search of cooler places.

This month, temperatures are likely to soar to 55 C (131 F), weather forecasters said.

Doctors say they treated hundreds of patients in the eastern city of Lahore, while scores of people were brought to hospitals in Hyderabad, Larkana and Jacobabad districts in the southern Sindh province.

“The situation has been getting worse since yesterday, when people affected by heat started coming to hospitals in the Punjab province,” said Ghulam Farid, a senior health official. Pakistan has set up emergency response centers at hospitals to treat patients affected by the heat.

The state-run ambulance service is now carrying bottled water and ice to provide emergency treatment to victims of the heat, health officials said.

The United Nations children’s agency appealed for children to be protected from the heat.

“UNICEF is deeply concerned about the health and safety of babies and young children as debilitating heatwave conditions take hold in several countries,” said Sanjay Wijesekera, UNICEF regional director for South Asia. He said the increasing temperatures across the region could put millions of children’s health at risk if they are not protected and hydrated.

Heatstroke is a serious illness that occurs when one’s body temperature rises too quickly, potentially causing some to fall unconscious. Severe heatstroke can cause disability or death.

This year, Pakistan recorded its wettest April since 1961, with more than double the usual monthly rainfall. Last month’s heavy rains killed scores of people while destroyed property and farmland .

Daytime temperatures are soaring 8 degrees Celsius (46 degrees Fahrenheit) above May's temperatures, raising fears of flooding in the northwest because of glacial melting.

The 2022 floods caused extensive damage in Sindh and Baluchistan provinces, as 1,739 people were killed across the country.

Currently, Pakistan's southwest and northwestern areas are also experiencing the heatwave.

Authorities have shut schools for a week in Punjab. In the city of Lahore people were seen swimming in the roadside canals. Pakistan says despite contributing less than 1% to carbon emissions, it is bearing the brunt of global climate disasters.

Alam said recent erratic changes in weather patterns were the result of man-made climate change.

Associated Press writer Babar Dogar contributed to this story from Lahore, Pakistan.

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