uk heatwave 2015 case study

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• Health and social care
• Public health
• Health protection
• Health surveillance and reporting programmes
• Heatwave health watch 2015
• Public Health England

Heatwave health watch summary: 9 July 2015

Updated 16 July 2015

© Crown copyright 2015

This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: [email protected] .

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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/heatwave-health-watch-2015/heatwave-health-watch-summary-9-july-2015

1. Summary of environmental hazards

1.1 heatwave.

On Sunday 28 June, the Met Office issued a Level 2 heatwave alert (alert and readiness) for all regions, except the north east of England. On Wednesday 1 July 2015, a Level 3 heatwave alert (heatwave action) was issued for all regions of England. On 2 July 2015, the heatwave alert level reverted to Level 1 (summer preparedness) for all regions.

1.2 Solar UV radiation

The Public Health England ( PHE ) solar radiation monitoring stations across the UK reported typical peak UV Index values for this time of year. During week 27, Camborne, London and Chilton recorded peak daily UV index values of 6 and 7 (high) with Leeds, Swansea, Belfast, Inverness and Lerwick recording peak daily values of 4 to 7 (moderate to high).

1.3 Air pollution

The warm, sunny, weather conditions on 1st July 2015 resulted in high air pollution in much of England. The pollution was due to ozone. Daily air quality forecasts and measured levels of air pollution across the UK are available from the UK AIR: Air information resource .

2. Health impacts

2.1 syndromic surveillance.

There was an increase in consultations for heatstroke and sunstroke across all syndromic surveillance systems, peaking in line with the high temperatures during week 27. Consultations for allergic rhinitis remain high, in line with seasonal expectations.

2.2 Laboratory surveillance

Gastrointestinal disease activity is around seasonally expected levels. The number of laboratory reports of the major gastrointestinal pathogens (campylobacter, salmonella, cryptosporidium, norovirus) in the season to date are similar to the 5-year seasonal average.

2.3 Mortality surveillance

In week 26 of 2015, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was seen through the EuroMOMO algorithm in England overall and by age group and across the devolved administrations. A routine mortality surveillance bulletin covering the dates of the heatwave alert will be published on 16 July 2015.

2.4 Surveillance reports

• PHE Real-time Syndromic Surveillance
• PHE all-cause mortality surveillance

3. Sources of further information

• Met Office: Heat-health watch
• Heatwave plan for England
• NHS Choices
• Met Office: Get ready for summer
• UV Index graphs
• UK-AIR: Air Information Resource

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Climate change made UK heatwave more intense and at least 10 times more likely

by Matthew Willshire 02 August 2022

Aftermath of a forest fire in Epping Forest, North London

New study finds human-caused climate change will increase the likelihood and severity of heatwaves in the UK faster than predicted.

On 18 and 19 July 2022, the UK experienced record-breaking heat with temperatures reaching over 40°C. The UK has little experience with extreme heat, and the conditions led to widespread suffering. Care services supporting the elderly and vulnerable were put under increased stress; a surge in emergency calls and hospitalisations put immense strain on health systems, and early estimates suggest that there were nearly 1,000 heat-related deaths

The study, carried out by a global team of leading climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution  group, found that the heatwave was made at least 10 times more likely due to human-induced climate change. The results also suggest that a heatwave as intense as this one is still rare in today’s climate, even after being made more likely by climate change.

These temperatures would have been statistically impossible in a world before the Industrial Revolution. Dr Mariam Zachariah

“The maximum day-time temperature on 19 July was so extreme that it was a rare 1-in-1,000-year event, even in the current climate. The likelihood of the average temperature over the two days was also rare, with a 1 in 100 chance,” said Dr Mariam Zachariah , Research Associate at the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and Environment at Imperial College London, who led the study. “However, these temperatures would have been statistically impossible in a world before the Industrial Revolution."  

Quantifying the role of climate change

To quantify the impact of climate change on the heatwave, the researchers used both observed data from weather stations across the UK and computer-based climate simulations. They used peer-reviewed methods to compare weather in today’s climate, which has been warmed by 1.2ºC due to human influence, with a natural climate.

Climate simulations estimate that greenhouse gas emissions increased temperatures in the recent heatwave by 2ºC. However, historical weather records indicate that the heatwave would have been 4ºC cooler without human-caused climate change.

If carbon emissions are not rapidly cut, the consequences of climate change on extreme heat in Europe could be even worse than we previously thought. Dr Friederike (Fredi) Otto

This suggests that models are underestimating the real impact of human-caused climate change on high temperatures in the UK and other parts of Western Europe. It also means that the results of the analysis are conservative, and climate change likely increased the frequency of the event by more than the factor of 10 estimated by the study.

“In Europe and other parts of the world we are seeing more and more record-breaking heatwaves causing extreme temperatures that have become hotter faster than in most climate models,” said Dr Friederike (Fredi) Otto , co-author, Senior Lecturer at the Grantham Institute and lead of the World Weather Attribution project. “It’s a worrying finding that suggests that if carbon emissions are not rapidly cut, the consequences of climate change on extreme heat in Europe could be even worse than we previously thought.”

Why are heatwaves serious for the UK?

Extreme heatwaves pose a particular risk for the UK - a nation inexperienced with very high temperatures.

"Our lifestyle and infrastructure are not designed for prolonged exposure to such temperatures. For example, the railway tracks buckle in the extreme heat. These impacts are becoming more and more profound even with seemingly small increases in temperature,” said Dr Zachariah.

Infrastructure in the UK is built to retain heat. Over 570,000 homes are not suitable for high temperatures, making them uninhabitable during extreme heat events. Larger structures like prisons or hospitals are often also unsuitable for the heat. During heatwaves, green space, shade, and water can act as lifelines. However, not all communities, especially in urban areas, have access to this.

Which groups are more vulnerable during a heatwave?

Some demographics in the UK have suffered more severely from the heatwave than others. The heat was more intense in London compared to surrounding areas due to urban infrastructure warming the city.

Within London, poorer communities often have challenges with access to water. There are also fewer green spaces that are readily available, and it is difficult to avoid the intense heat.

Alongside this:

• Homeless people are less able to cope in heatwaves as they are more exposed to the heat.
• Elderly people or those with chronic health issues like diabetes are more likely to die during a heatwave.
• Health inequalities experienced by ethnically diverse communities during the Covid-19 pandemic will continue to be relevant in extreme heat events.

As heatwaves become increasingly common, researchers emphasise the government’s need to consider the wide range of impacts on different groups of people when tackling heatwaves.

“Heatwaves are the deadliest type of extreme weather event in Europe, killing thousands each year. But they don’t have to be," said Roop Singh , co-author and Climate Risk Adviser at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. "Many of these deaths are preventable if adequate adaptation plans are in place. Without rapid and comprehensive adaptation and emissions cuts, the situation will only get worse."

Download the full study:  Without human-caused climate change temperatures of 40ºC in the UK would have been extremely unlikely  (26 pages, 3.9 MB)

Article text (excluding photos or graphics) © Imperial College London.

Photos and graphics subject to third party copyright used with permission or © Imperial College London.

Matthew Willshire The Grantham Institute for Climate Change

Attribution-science , Climate-change , Environment , Global-challenges-Natural-world See more tags

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Extreme Weather in the UK Summer Heatwave 2018.

The summer of 2018 will be remembered for being a scorcher! High temperatures and low rainfall are not the typical weather conditions the U.K. is used to.  Summer 2018 is an example of extreme weather. Extreme weather is when a weather event is significantly different from the average or usual weather pattern.

Britain has experienced its longest heatwave in 42 years; just 47mm of rainfall fell between 1 June to 16 July. It is the driest summer on record since 1961 when modern records started. The Met office assessed the temperature data for the UK as a whole for summer 2018 and the figures are so close that they declared it as the joint hottest on record together with 2006, 2003 and 1976.

Impact of the heatwave

Satellite images illustrate the impact of the extreme weather Britain has experienced during summer 2018. The satellite images below comparing the U.K. in May and July clearly show the impact the heatwave and drought have had. Vegetation that was once green and lush turned a shade of brown.  

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Satellite image showing Britain in May 2018 and July 2018 – Source independent.co.uk

The heatwave has led to falling water levels in reservoirs across the country. At Burrator reservoir in Dartmoor, Devon, a “drowned village” has been revealed having been submerged for more than a century. As the water in Burrator Reservoir dropped to beneath 50 per cent capacity, ruins of a wall were revealed, while a farmhouse and a bridge are thought to be beneath the surface.

Hosepipe Ban

7 million households in the north-west of England are facing the first hosepipe ban in the country since 2012. The ban is due to come into force on 5th August 2018 because reservoir levels are 17% lower than the same period last year. It is ironic that the wettest area in England is facing a hosepipe ban.

A hosepipe ban can reduce water usage by 5-10%, according to UK Water Industry Research, which in the north-west would amount to more than 100m litres a day. However, water leaks within the network typically result in a loss of 20% of our water.  

In Northern Ireland, a hosepipe ban has been in effect since 29 June. An extra 175m litres of water is being pumped into the network in an effort to keep up with demand.  

Moorland Fires

The dry conditions contributed to a series of large fires on the Lancashire moors. This included Winter Hill, near Bolton and Saddleworth Moor, close to Manchester. Up to 100 firefighters from across England tackled the blaze on Winter Hill.

The blaze on Saddleworth moor broke out on 24 June and about 100 soldiers were drafted in to help tackle it at its height. At its peak, the fire covered an area of 7 sq miles (18 sq km) of moorland. People living in the vicinity of the smoke plume were advised to keep their doors and windows shut.

This is the flying science lab that’s testing the smoke from UK wildfires such as the one on Saddleworth Moor #saddleworthmoorfire #saddleworthmoor pic.twitter.com/NfIbzymmyZ — BBC Science News (@BBCScienceNews) July 11, 2018

The army joined firefighters on Saddleworth Moor where the blaze took three weeks to extinguish. It is thought the fires were caused by arson. However, the dry conditions exacerbated the fire.

Lancashire Wildlife Trust said a separate “devastating” fire on Saturday destroyed a large part of a nature reserve in St Anne’s, Lancashire.

More devastating news. On Saturday a fire on our Local Nature Reserve in St Anne’s destroyed approx 20% of the reserve’s habitat. The cause is unknown. Please don’t light bbqs on dry grassland, and dispose of all litter, particularly glass bottles & cigarette butts. pic.twitter.com/34MRCkfQR2 — Lancs Wildlife Trust (@Lancswildlife) July 2, 2018

Nearly 700 more deaths than average were recorded during the 15-day peak of the heatwave in June and July in England and Wales, according to official statistics. Although these deaths cannot be directly linked to the heat wave this is more than a coincidence.

Further issues

June saw 16 consecutive days of temperatures above 28°C. But joyous as it may seem, this unusually hot summer is no cause for celebration. @india_bourke on this summer’s warning signs. https://t.co/umQIsiplzO — New Statesman (@NewStatesman) July 17, 2018

Benefits of the heatwave

The hot, dry weather has brought benefits to the UK tourism industry. Holidaymakers already booked in for a summer break in the UK are the obvious and clear winners.

Last year saw a rise in the number of British people taking domestic holidays with more than 33 million trips taken between January and August – and two-thirds of Britons have planned a UK break for this year, the Association of British Travel Agents said.

The drought has exposed previously undiscovered or long-hidden outlines of various archaeological sites, from ancient fortifications to remnants of the Second World War, across the country.

How the current #heatwave is providing unprecedented opportunities for archaeologists https://t.co/SRRZVeJZwT (via @Independent ) #archaeology — BBC History Magazine (@HistoryExtra) July 12, 2018

Retailers have benefitted from an increased sale of wine during the heatwave. Waitrose told Decanter.com that Champagne sales by volume were up by 49% year-on-year, with sparkling wines up 53% year-on-year.

Cause of the heatwave

The “ beast from the east ” cold of late winter 2018 and the dry heat of the UK’s summer so far, are both caused atmospheric blocking. Large meanders in the jet stream often lead to the development of huge anticyclones – areas of high pressure that can remain in the same place for weeks at a time. This causes cold temperatures during winter and hot, dry conditions during the summer.  

Anthony Bennett

Very useful, informative work. Helped me a lot with my own case study.

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UK heatwave was made 10 times more likely by climate change and hundreds may have died - study

The tenfold increase is a "conservative estimate", because extreme temperatures have climbed higher than climate models simulate, analysis reveals.

Climate reporter @SeabrookClimate

Friday 29 July 2022 10:34, UK

Last week's record-breaking heatwave in the UK was made at least 10 times more likely by climate change, according to a new study.

Hundreds of people are expected to have died during the scorching weather, though official figures are yet to emerge, the rapid analysis by the World Weather Attribution group (WWA) said.

There have been estimates of more than 840 extra deaths in England and Wales on 18 and 19 July.

The extreme weather caused widespread disruption to transport networks and hundreds of fires, including devastating blazes that destroyed homes .

A new UK record temperature of 40.3C was set in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, on 19 July - 1.6C hotter than the previous mark set just three years ago.

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The impacts of heatwaves are often "very unequally distributed across demographics", with poorer neighbourhoods frequently lacking green space, shade, and water, said Emmanuel Raju, from the Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research.

The heatwave swept across much of Europe this month.

More on Climate Change

Storm repairs and conservation work get under way to preserve St Kilda Kirk

Hospitals evacuated as wildfires spread near Greek capital Athens

Climate crisis a hot topic at Worldcon in Glasgow

Related Topics:

• climate change

But the group chose the UK for their latest analysis because the country is "particularly unaccustomed to very high temperatures as the ones that we have seen last week," added Friederike Otto, senior climate science lecturer at Imperial College London.

The study has not been peer-reviewed but used published, peer-reviewed methods.

Of the places the group analysed, temperatures recorded at two of them would have been "statistically impossible" if the world hadn't warmed by about 1.2C since the late 1800s, the paper said.

The international network is at the forefront of the science of quickly quantifying the role of climate change in recent extreme weather events.

The 21 researchers involved in this study compared the global climate as it is today, after 1.2C of warming, with analysis of historical weather records.

While the computer simulations suggest climate change had increased temperatures in the heatwave by 2C, analysis of historical records indicated it would be around 4C cooler in pre-industrial times, before global warming started to drive up temperatures.

The 10-fold increase in the chances of such extreme heat hitting the UK due to climate change is a "conservative estimate", because "extreme temperatures" have climbed more than climate models estimate, the authors said.

This also suggests the consequences of the climate crisis for heatwaves could be even worse than previously thought.

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"There must be something in the climate system that has a stronger influence here... that is just not captured in the models" for Western Europe yet, Dr Otto explained.

Two years ago, Met Office scientists found the chance of seeing 40C in the UK was one in 100 in any given year, up from one in 1,000 in an unchanged climate.

"It's been sobering to see such an event happen so soon after that study, to see the raw data coming back from our weather stations," said Fraser Lott, attribution scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre, who also worked on the paper.

Professor Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor at Oxford University, said the group should have included error margins on their estimates, given the challenges of current climate models.

Watch the Daily Climate Show at 3.30pm Monday to Friday, and The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3.30pm and 7.30pm.

All on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, on YouTube and Twitter.

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Heatwaves - Breaking Records in 2019

Many parts of the UK are currently experiencing heatwave conditions, which are forecast to continue until at least Friday. So, this week on the Weather Club, we thought we’d take a closer look at heatwaves, particularly last year’s European temperature records that were broken during June and July. What caused this extreme heat, and should we expect these temperatures to occur more frequently in the future?

In the UK, the Met Office has defined a heatwave temperature threshold for each county – if the daily maximum temperature meets or exceeds this value for at least three days, it is classed as a heatwave. The figure below shows the threshold values for each country.

Slow-moving, high-pressure systems cause heatwaves in the UK. During the summer, the jet stream is usually found north of the UK, which allows a high-pressure system to develop. These systems are referred to as ‘blocking highs’ as their presence makes it more difficult for other weather systems to move across an area, resulting in extended hot, dry, sunny weather. Forecasters can identify the weather patterns that may result in a heatwave several days in advance, making them a little easier to predict than unsettled weather. The Met Office has a Heat Health Watch warning system that issues alerts – levels 1 to 4 – if a heatwave is imminent. 

During the summer of 2019, the UK and parts of Europe experienced several intense heatwaves, with all-time records broken in many places. For example, France observed a record high temperature of 46°C on 28 June during a 9-day heatwave. A few weeks later, temperatures soared again into the upper 30s and low 40s across the UK, Netherlands, France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and Spain between 21 and 28 July. 

Indeed, Thursday 25 July 2019, was a record-breaking day for temperature in the UK. The UK’s all-time temperature record was broken, with 38.7°C recorded at Cambridge Botanic Garden.

Health Risks

There are very real risks to life during such heatwave events. For example, the 2003 European heatwave killed more than 35,000 people over two weeks (many occurred in France). It is, therefore, essential for everyone to understand how to cope during a heatwave, but especially vulnerable people; most of the deaths caused by such heatwaves are among the elderly, but it is noteworthy that more than 1,000 of the deaths during the 2003 heatwave were among people aged 35–64.

In May, Public Health England published a  Heatwave Plan  to raise awareness of the potential dangers to health from severe hot weather.

Climate Change

Blaming a single heatwave event on global warming is complicated. However, it is possible to say that such extreme events are likely to happen more often, are hotter and last longer due to human-induced climate change. Indeed, the five hottest European summers since 1500 have all occurred this century, and a Met Office study in 2018 concluded that heatwaves in the UK last twice as long as they did 50 years ago. France’s national weather agency has also said that the number of heatwaves in France has doubled in the past 34 years, and this is expected to double again by 2050, while their intensity has also increased.

Further Reading

You can read more about the 2019 heatwave in the following articles from the Royal Meteorological Society’s journals:

Free for all to view:

• The record-breaking heat wave of June 2019 in Central Europe

Free for members of the Royal Meteorological Society to view:

• Europe extreme heat 22-26 July 2019: was it caused by subsidence or advection?
• A bang and not a whimper: the exceptional heat and thundery outbreaks in late July 2019

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Heatwaves impact on prehospital emergency medicine: a qualitative study to improve sustainability and disaster preparedness in veneto region, northern italy.

1. Introduction

2.1. context, 2.2. design and population of the study, 2.3. data collection, 2.4. data analysis and reporting, 2.5. ethical considerations, 3.1. perception of heatwaves, 3.2. clinical impact of heatwaves, 3.3. social factors and heatwaves, 3.4. heatwaves and ems, 3.4.1. gaps and vulnerability factors, 3.4.2. strengths, 3.4.3. potential solutions to mitigate the impact, 4. discussion, limitations, 5. conclusions, supplementary materials, author contributions, institutional review board statement, informed consent statement, data availability statement, acknowledgments, conflicts of interest.

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Paganini, M.; Markou-Pappas, N.; Della Corte, F.; Rosi, P.; Trillò, G.; Ferramosca, M.; Paoli, A.; Politi, F.; Valerio, A.; Favaro, A.; et al. Heatwaves Impact on Prehospital Emergency Medicine: A Qualitative Study to Improve Sustainability and Disaster Preparedness in Veneto Region, Northern Italy. Sustainability 2024 , 16 , 6911. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16166911

Paganini M, Markou-Pappas N, Della Corte F, Rosi P, Trillò G, Ferramosca M, Paoli A, Politi F, Valerio A, Favaro A, et al. Heatwaves Impact on Prehospital Emergency Medicine: A Qualitative Study to Improve Sustainability and Disaster Preparedness in Veneto Region, Northern Italy. Sustainability . 2024; 16(16):6911. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16166911

Paganini, Matteo, Nikolaos Markou-Pappas, Francesco Della Corte, Paolo Rosi, Giulio Trillò, Marialuisa Ferramosca, Andrea Paoli, Federico Politi, Adriano Valerio, Andrea Favaro, and et al. 2024. "Heatwaves Impact on Prehospital Emergency Medicine: A Qualitative Study to Improve Sustainability and Disaster Preparedness in Veneto Region, Northern Italy" Sustainability 16, no. 16: 6911. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16166911

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