future decisions essay

Greater Good Science Center • Magazine • In Action • In Education

How Thinking About the Future Makes Life More Meaningful

Mindfulness is all the rage these days, and for good reason. Focusing on the moment can improve our well-being , foster compassion , and help our relationships . What about going beyond the present moment? Yes, thinking about the future can trigger anxiety—but a growing body of research suggests that it can also make our lives more meaningful.

Humans aren’t alone in having some ability to consider the future, a process that scientists call “prospection.” After all, your dog gets excited when they see you holding a leash because they anticipate a walk is imminent; your cat may show similar excitement at the sound of a can being opened. There’s even evidence that some animals—like bonobos and ravens —can choose and save tools that they plan to use in the future.

But prospection’s unique benefits to humans extend beyond that of other animals. Not only do we fantasize about our next vacation or decide whether it would be better to take the stairs or the elevator, but our prospection can cast far into the future: We might save for our children’s education or plan for our retirement decades from now. We can make predictions about our own futures based on what we’ve learned about other people’s experiences and even from characters in books and movies. And we can consider multiple directions our futures might take.

It is this remarkable ability to simulate our possible futures that makes prospection special. Just like gold prospecting may literally make you rich, studies suggest that prospecting about your future can enrich your life in at least four ways.

1. Helps us make more prudent decisions

Perhaps one of the most fundamental and important functions of prospection is that it helps us decide how to act: Thinking about what the future likely holds helps us decide what course to take in the here-and-now. Several studies have examined how thinking about the future shapes our decision-making.

Researchers have been particularly interested in the psychology that drives our process of deciding between receiving something now versus receiving something of greater value later. In general, people tend to choose smaller but more immediate rewards over larger rewards that they have to wait for, a phenomenon known as “delay discounting.”

But they don’t always choose short-term rewards over long-run gains. For instance, studies have shown that present-day connection to a possible future event can counteract delay discounting. In one study from the United Kingdom, participants were told either to vividly imagine spending 35 pounds at a pub 180 days from now or to simply estimate what they thought could be purchased for 35 pounds. Participants in the former condition showed an increased willingness to wait for a larger future reward than the participants in the latter condition. In other words, visualizing a specific possible future counteracted the effects of delay discounting.

Another study showed that participants who felt closer to their future selves were more willing to wait for a larger reward than those who anticipated changing; the same was true when they were asked to make decisions on behalf of a fictional character who they knew would go through a life-changing event (like a religious conversion or returning home from war).

While interesting in its own right, this research could have important personal ramifications. If people could be made to feel a more immediate connection to their eventual retirement (and consequent drop in income), they may be more motivated to make prudent decisions.

In fact, one experiment found that manipulating how people think about the time until their retirement—in days rather than years—caused them to plan to start saving for retirement sooner, because the shift in time perspective made the participants feel more connected to their future selves. A 2014 study found that viewing realistic computer-generated images of what they may look like in the future decreased their discounting of future rewards and led them to contribute more to a hypothetical retirement account.

2. Motivates us to achieve our goals (if we do it right)

Prospection has another important application: It motivates us to achieve our goals. But the relationship here is not a simple one. Work by psychologist Gabriele Oettingen and colleagues shows that whether thinking about the future helps us actually reach our goals depends on how we think about the future.

In fact, research has found that positive thinking about our future can backfire . The more people positively fantasize about successfully reaching their goals, the less effort they actually put into realizing them. For example, in one study , the people who fantasized more about successfully losing weight actually lost less weight. Another study found that students who fantasized about their transition into a professional career were less successful in their job search and students who dreamed more about their crush were less likely to start a relationship with their crushee.

Importantly, both of these studies found the opposite effect for having positive expectations (“judging a desired future as likely”). People who expected to lose weight were more likely to actually lose weight; students who expected they would find a job were more likely to actually land one; and students who expected to enter a relationship with their crush were more likely to actually do so.

It makes sense that having positive expectations—optimism, essentially—could increase our ability to achieve our goals, but why might fantasizing about the future actually decrease the chance of achieving what we want? Because, write Oettingen and Klaus Michel Reininger, positive fantasies “lead people to mentally enjoy the desired future in the here and now, and thus curb investment and future success.”

But often our goals come from our fantasies. We want to excel at work, find Mr. or Mrs. Right, or run a marathon. How do we turn these fantasies into behaviors that can help us reach our goals? Research suggests that while optimism is important, it is also helpful to draw a contrast between our fantasies and our current reality, which allows us to see barriers that must be overcome.

For example, one study asked students to mentally contrast their positive fantasies about benefiting from a vocational training program with aspects of the program that could impede their progress. This reflection caused students who expected to do well in the program to commit themselves more, and those who expected to do poorly to commit themselves less—again pointing to the importance of optimistic expectations to success. But the mental contrasting was also key: Positive expectations did not increase commitment in participants who were not assigned to compare their present situation with their future desires.

Results from a later study suggest that the effectiveness of mental contrasting is due to “energization”—meaning that, when people have high expectations for succeeding at something, considering what might impede their goals gives them energy to try to overcome those barriers. In other words, it helps to stress yourself out a little bit.

Mental contrasting, particularly when used in conjunction with “implementation intentions”—making plans to help move past potential barriers—has been shown to help people reach their goals. To describe this process, Oettingen and colleagues use the acronym WOOP

: Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan. In studies, WOOP-type interventions have helped people break a bad snacking habit , get more exercise , and improve academic performance .

Thus, research suggests that thinking about the future can motivate us to take the steps necessary to reach our goals—but only if we take obstacles into account.

3. Improves psychological well-being

4. Makes us more kind and generous

How we think about the future doesn’t just influence our own lives. It can also influence how we treat other people.

In particular, picturing yourself helping someone in the future may make you more likely to actually do so. For instance, a 2018 study found that participants reported being more willing to help other people who needed help (such as a person who was locked out of their house or who lost their dog) if they had previously been asked to imagine helping a person in a similar scenario. People who were asked to imagine the helping scenario more vividly—by picturing the event occurring in a familiar location—were even more willing to help. One experiment even found that people who imagined helping actually gave more money to people in need when given the opportunity.

Another study found that when people think more broadly about the future consequences that could come from helping others, they might feel inspired to behave in more prosocial ways. In one experiment, researchers asked people who had volunteered for Hurricane Katrina relief efforts to imagine the meaning and consequences of their trip—or to think concretely about how they would be helping. Those who imagined the consequences of helping predicted that they would have a more rewarding trip than those who thought concretely about their actions. A second experiment replicated this finding: People predicted that giving money to someone they had never met would be more rewarding when they were asked to think about the more abstract meaning and consequences of their actions (e.g., how this decision fit in with their life’s past and future experience) than when they were asked to consider a more concrete perspective.

Could this abstract-versus-concrete effect have real-world consequences? The researchers think so:

We believe that our results suggest an intervention that could be used to prompt and sustain prosocial behavior. To the extent that people avoid or cease prosocial actions because of concrete costs, inviting people to construe those actions abstractly could help them persist at prosocial actions that have enduring personal and social benefits.

While there’s a lot left for researchers to discover about prospection, you don’t need to wait for their published studies. You can try your own experiments right now, to see if prospection helps you to live a more generous, happier, and more meaningful life.

About the Author

Summer Allen

Summer Allen, Ph.D. , is a Research/Writing Fellow with the Greater Good Science Center. A graduate of Carleton College and Brown University, Summer now writes for a variety of publications including weekly blog posts for the American Association for the Advancement of Science. She is also very active on twitter: follow her , or just reach out and say hello!

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Decision Making Essay

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Introduction

Decision-making is undoubtedly a fundamental practice the management of corporations. It denotes the progression of choosing and executing options, which are in tandem with an aspiration. It also connotes a string of actions commencing with a broad objective, trickling down to generating, appraising, choosing and executing favourable options.

Decisions made in organizations may have in-depth upshots on the firm and its employees. Such judgements in organizations are distinctive in terms of the risks involved, reservations managers have on them, their importance and contribution to the attainment of the firm’s broader objectives.

Some are tricky and requires insight thought, and may include setting of new policies, reorienting firm’s purposes and objectives, and large-scale ventures with a potential to impact on the economy of the firm. On the other hand, routine decisions also form part of a firm (Martin & Fellenz 2010, p. 227).

Rational model is a conventional representation of making decisions, and it leans on realistic financial hypothesis where the concerned members think of what constitutes best way of arriving at a judgement. Managements regularly use this model to make fiscally sensible decisions, which are capable of contributing to organization’s financial growth.

The model helps delineate how managers should make decisions. In addition, it presents guidelines, which enable decision maker to reach a favourable panacea for organizational development. The mould also negates the decision makers from applying their personal interests while searching for favourable outcomes.

It is highly applicable on decisions characterised by assurances and possibilities since suitable information is accessible. Furthermore, the model exposes opportunities to computations. For instance, usage of Information Technology to automate programmed decisions such as airline companies apply it is seat bookings, flight routes, and services pricing.

It is worth noting that decision-making techniques relying on quantitative information benefit processed in computers enable the model to gain usage. The model; however, has assumptions including decision makers’ ability to fulfil goals already agreed on and setbacks critically prepared and definite.

The decision makers also aim to attain certainty and collect relevant data, options and prospective outcomes computed. Procedure for evaluating options is clear and those able to optimize fiscal returns chosen. Finally, it assumes that the decision maker is logical and can use judgment to choose options, which will optimize economic gains.

The model describes the six stages of decision making as identifying a dilemma or opportunity. Daft and Marcic note that organizations face problems when they underperform and opportunities when administrators realize potentials of improving performance past existing echelon. This becomes the initial step in decision-making and warrants company’s inner and external forces surveillance (Daft & Marcic 2010, p. 188).

The managers utilize internal fiscal reports to forecast on possible threats and openings. Information gathering is another crucial stage that follows. This normally guarantees the manager an opportunity to analyze the possible causes of problems identified. This is tenable when decision makers, through creativity, develop questions reading the problem and opportunity state (Griffin, & Moorhead 2010, p. 198)

. The third stage is to develop alternatives, which seeks to generate potential optional answers to react to the requirements of the condition and give feedback on the basic reasons. It is easy to discover realistic options within the firm’s regulations since the decision-making is based on certainties and threats.

The identified options are deemed to ease the disparities regarding current state of affairs against conditions considered necessary.

Selection of desired options becomes the fourth step, which seeks to select among the options, the most realistic alternative that can best respond to the firms broad objectives. It is imperative to assert that the best attainable option must be requiring minimal resources to attain the needed outcomes. Furthermore, decision maker selects an option with the lowest quantity of uncertainties and threats.

This would aid in avoiding errors in the process. The fifth step is implementing the selected option, which requires corporation from the organization’s stakeholders. The managers, administrators and other staff work together to implement the option.

The ultimate step is to evaluate and present feedback on the status of implementation. Decision makers collect data on the effectiveness of the option in responding to the objectives. This final step is important since decision-making is an uninterrupted cycle. Therefore, the provision of feedback forms the benchmark for future decision-making.

There are factors, which influence decision-making course thus leading to a deviation from the rational form discussed above. Individuality personality and values is one of the leading parameter that affects the process. Different attributes of people manipulate decision-making choices. It is normal to discover that various individuals become nervous, worried, and agitated while in the crucial stages of decision-making.

Such attributes normally leads to fallacious interpretation in the process. It is crucial to declare that being nervous compromises reasoning; therefore, a manager may fail to arrive at the best decision. The attitudinal traits also interfere with decision in an organization. Some managers have fixed thoughts concerning what happens at the organization.

They believe that specific employees or figures must be present whenever there is a crucial matter to make decision. This implies that they have preset minds that such individuals are the best decision makers. This normally prompts the organization to believe such people contribute, regardless of the impacts they present on the organization.

Various managers possess different personalities. Some possess elevated self-esteem, which is motivational in during decision-making. Managers with strong personalities normally dominate the discussion during the process. This may flaw the process since their juniors may fear to contribute. This offers fewer options on the best way of solving organizational problems. This is incoherent with the rational model.

Preconceived fears about the consequences of the decisions would have on the organization normally send chills in the managers, and other concerned parties. This refers to emotional attributes of an individual. Griffin and Moorhead outline that perceived impacts, as well as post resolution effects may impair decision-making.

Furthermore, cognitive ideals such as outright biases have an effect on decision-making (Griffin, & Moorhead 2010, p. 202). Values that an individual embrace also influence decision making, and many counter the rational model. It is factual that managers espouse divergent principles and would attempt to maintain them in every situation. People would always propose what they like regardless of what impact it has on others.

Group relationship is another important parameter that influences decision making to a greater deal. The success of making decisions in groups is subject to the extent of understanding among members forming the team. Martin and Fellenz, posit that the group must have the right intensity of diversity thus enabling them to iron their differences.

Group decision making is highly applicable in organizations where it intricate issues, which can only be managed by a team with varied knowledge backgrounds (Martin & Fellenz 2010, p. 284). Group polarization connotes the way people react to situations of decision-making. People normally arrive at decision-making meetings with different views; however, they tone down to borrow the ideas of their fellows.

Therefore, a group that comprises of people with deep understanding of the dynamics that exists normally makes rational decision. Nonetheless, some groups might not arrive at a decision easily owing to the divergent notions members possess. This may be due to the everlasting differences that exist amongst members.

The level and kind of relationship within a group normally dictates how people make decisions. Superior relationship may prompt others to seek support from their fellows; however, this may flaw the process thus leading to irrationality. Group decision-making in organizations enable extra people to sustain influential contributions during the process than they would achieve individually.

Another issue is group thinking, which happens a when a decision making team is greatly involved in a discussion and the motivation to evaluate options is cancel out by their unanimity. This fails to support the rational model of decision-making since it thwarts other possible options that are crucial in the process.

Rational model upholds that divergent group may arrive at better conclusion than a group that has similar interest. Therefore, a divergent group, where people have good relation, but varied interest, would offer beat avenue of exploring many options.

The peak management makes tactical decisions within the organization. Varied aspects of power and its availability in any firm, coupled with inter personality conditions give rise to the relationships (Venkatachalam & Sellappan 2011, p. 97). Managers can influence decision making as they comment on what qualifies for discussions.

Power relations contribute to decision making through the engagement of organization staff on involvement in undertaking activities. Managers merely comply with the already set standards while leading other people. Whenever this takes place, the managers hold discussions with the relevant people to make decisions collectively on work aimed at meeting company goals (Venkatachalam & Sellappan 2011, p. 97).

Power leads to conflict in the organization, which needs adequate deliberation to decide on the best move. Different echelons of power requires transmitting information from pinnacle to bottom, which may cause damaged communication due to structural circumstances of those involved. Decisions making is necessary to solve the predicaments resulting from such conflicts.

Furthermore, power denotes leadership, which requires excellent qualities including superior decision-making ability. Managers must be able to identify threats and solutions to problems when options, facts, and goals are unclear. Managers ought to encourage shared decision-making. This is a way of empowering subordinates to be able to take part in an advice-giving decision making processes.

Power ought to organize the team members involved in decisions making. However, managers sometimes misuse their powers while engaging employees on making decisions about certain issues.

Decision choice less is the situation of managers seeking the opinion of the junior employees on vital organizational development agendas. The employees provide their information, which the manager discards and cannot include as one of the options for improving conditions in the organization (Shapira 2002, p. 145)

Political behaviour refers to as actions displayed by people in organizations; moreover, it depicts the requirements in such organizations. Political issues among some decision makers are an important aspect of decision-making. The politics include how managers use power to influence decision-making or the behaviour of employees while agitating for better remunerations.

It concentrates on designing and utilizing power in firm to ensure people who lack power get it to organizational level. The impact of political behaviour on managers includes the possibility of drawing up new policies for an organization upon learning the prevailing political happenings (Robbins, Judge, Odendaal & Roodt 2009, p. 358).

The managers take advantage of political unrest in an organization to destroy critical documents, which might be relevant for decision-making. People view political behaviour as a way of democratic decision-making, communicating demands for performance.

However, political behaviour in firms also presents dark side including intentionally telling lies, and intimidation. Political behaviours within an organization may thus impair decision following the divides it creates. Every political move has adverse impact in the process thus thwarting the rational model.

In conclusion, decision-making refer to a progression of choosing and executing options that are consistent with one’s inspirations. Rational model has contributed immensely to the decision-making in various organizations since it tend to eliminate all external forces that may hinder the course.

It is notable that myriads of parameters may influence the process. Personage personality and values normally may affect decision within the organization. Some managers hold particular values that they may not sacrifice in the process of decision-making. Self-esteem and other emotional attributes also affect decision. Anger, aggression and being overjoyed may compromise reasoning since they interfere with the psychology.

Making decision under such pressures may hinder the process, but soberness may lead to appropriate decision-making. Group relationship is another parameter that hinders decision since it influences individual thinking. Power relationship in an organization influences decision, as employees view high cadre to dominate during the process. This would allow them to offer options and easily convince people to consider their ideas.

The politics within corporations normally hinders decision-making, as it may lead to intergroup formations with competing attitudes. Decision-making should thus occur in a rational setting, which allows for adequate and rational consideration of every option.

List of references

Daft, R. & Marcic, D. (2010) Understanding Management , 7 th Ed. Ohio, OH. Cengage Learning.

Griffin, R. & Moorhead, G. (2010) Organizational Behavior: Managing People and Organizations, 9 th Ed. Ohio OH. Cengage Learning.

Martin, J. & Fellenz, M. (2010) Organizational Behaviour & Management . Ohio, OH. Cengage Learning.

Robbins, P. Judge, T. Odendaal, A. & Roodt, G. (2009) Organizational Behaviour: Global and Southern African Perspectives , 2 nd Ed. Cape Town.Pearson South Africa.

Shapira, Z. (2002) Organizational Decision Making . New York, NY. Cambridge University Press.

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Decision Making Essay | Difference Between a Good Decision and a Bad Decision

October 18, 2021 by Prasanna

Decision Making Essay: Making decisions is an essential skill for many professions, but it’s also a skill that we need in our personal lives. We need to be able to make decisions not just for ourselves, but also for the people around us. The ability to make decisions is a skill that is mostly learned through experience. However, other ways to improve decision-making skills also exist – such as reading, researching, talking to other people as well as analyzing different sources of information.

Regardless, it is important to make decisions on your own. The first thing that you should do is to define the problem that you are trying to solve. You want to know why a decision is needed, what it will change about your life, and what’s important to you about the decision. After reviewing all of these factors, you should come up with some options for which way you want to go about solving the problem. In this essay, we shall explore the factors that influence the process of decision making as well as the repercussion of poor decision making.

You can also find more Essay Writing articles on events, persons, sports, technology and many more.

Difference Between a Good Decision and a Bad Decision

One of the most important things to do when making decisions is to know the difference between a good decision and a bad decision. The primary difference between a good decision and a bad decision is the impact that it has on your life. As the name suggests, a good decision is one that has a positive impact on your life, while a bad decision will have a negative impact on your life.

Moreover, good decisions will usually lead to more opportunities. However, when you make bad decisions, it can have repercussions which are not immediately apparent, but can have long lasting consequences. To sum up, a good decision is one that achieves the desired goal. A bad decision is one that does not achieve the desired goal or achieves it in an undesirable way.

Why is Being Able to Make Decisions Essential for Success?

If you are able to make decisions quickly, you are more likely to be successful. The ability to make decisions quickly has always been an important part of being a successful professional. One of the most important skills required for making decisions is the ability to accept uncertainty.

There will always be unknowns when it comes to making decisions. As much as we try, there may never be enough information when it’s time to make a choice. However, making successful decisions requires you to process and interpret large volumes of data. Doing so is an effective way to ensure that the decisions made are well-educated and informed. Moreover, in a world of increasing complexity, it can be overwhelmingly hard to make the right decisions, hence, data analysis is an excellent tool for decision makers to use.

How to Become a Better Decision Maker?

Each day we make a series of decisions, from what we have for breakfast to which job to apply for. But how can we make better decisions?

Here are a few tips to consider when making important decisions:

Define the Problem

Before you can make a decision, you need to understand the issue at hand. When faced with a problem, take some time to figure out what is going on and why this is an issue. Moreover, learn to think critically about the problem you are trying to solve.

Be Aware Of Your Personal Biases And Beliefs

One of the most dangerous biases we have as humans is our confirmation bias. This bias happens when we selectively search and interpret information to confirm our preexisting beliefs. Unfortunately, this bias is very common and can lead to poor decisions, such as not hiring a new employee because they don’t fit into a desired archetype.

Gather information

You need to gather all the information you can on the problem. This starts with understanding the problem, but also includes your understanding of the context for this problem.

Consider alternatives and different perspectives

There are many benefits to being decisive, but there are also drawbacks. Remember to consider all points of view when making a decision. For example, you may think your idea is the best for the company, but if you provide feedback or ask others for their thoughts, they may give you new ideas that will better suit the company’s needs.

Take time to analyse and evaluate your decision

It can be difficult to think objectively and analyze your decision when you’re in a hurry, but it’s often helpful to take a step back and evaluate things more carefully. This is important because we might find new insights or different perspectives.

Tips to Consider When Making Decisions

Following are a few tips and points to consider when making an important decision:

Ask yourself what outcome you require
Consider what happens if you take action and also if you don’t
Think about how much time and energy would be needed for the decision you need to make
Consider the probability of achieving your desired outcome or goal if you take this course of action or if don’t take any action at all
Think about the pros and cons associated with your chosen decision.

Biological Process and Mechanisms of Decision Making

Our brain controls most biological processes in our body. It is also responsible for controlling external factors like our intuition, past experiences, learning as well as decision making. Human emotional response is governed by two information-processing systems:

Affective system: The affective system is a part of the human nervous system that is responsible for emotional arousal. Mechanisms in this system are not always logical and therefore less controllable. In other words, it’s the part of the brain that says “I’m hungry!” when you see a picture of a pizza or make you laugh when someone trips over their shoelace.
Cognitive system : The cognitive system is activated when the person has to make a decision based on their thoughts. This system is more controlled and can override the affective system when making decisions. It’s vital to help control emotions, since it can affect how people make decisions.

These two systems are deeply intertwined with one another and impact cognition and the decision making process.

How the Environment Shapes our Decisions

Since the 1960s, environmental psychologists have proposed that our surroundings can affect our decisions, behaviors, and thoughts. These scientists have found that the physical environment may be an important factor in decreasing crime rates, increasing recycling, and improving academic performance. For instance, a study of 54 third graders found that children who were given a messy desk to work at were less likely to do their homework than children who were given perfectly neat desks. Many studies also showed that the environment in which an individual is brought up can influence certain behaviour. For example, a study by researchers from Cornell University found that there is a positive correlation between the wealth of an individual’s family and their academic performance. The study showed that families with incomes of $250,000 or more had an average GPA of 3.5 while the national average was 3.1. Other factors such as political uncertainty, economic instability or natural disasters can also hamper decision making processes.

Decision making skills are important for life, it is a skill that can help shape our futures. It influences how we spend our time, who we spend our time with, and what we do with the limited resources that we have. Moreover, we need to be able to make decisions not just for ourselves but also for the people around us. Hence, it is always better to be prepared and well-informed before making an important decision.

FAQ’s on Decision Making Essay

Question 1. What are the 5 stages of decision-making?

Answer: When making decisions, humans go through 5 specific stages. These stages are:

recognition of the problem
defining the problem
generating possible solutions
evaluating possible solutions
choosing a solution

Question 2. Why is decision-making important?

Answer: Decision-making is one of the most important skills that everyone needs to have. It is the process of choosing between two or more things. Moreover, the decision that you make will have an effect on your life, so it’s important to do your research before making a decision.

Question 3. How to make a good decision?

Answer: In order to make a good decision, the individual should have the knowledge and skills to break down a problem into its constituent parts. They need to be creative in order to generate a range of possible solutions. They also need to be able to weigh the consequences of each solution and identify potential trade-offs. Finally, they need to implement a decision which is deemed feasible for the current problem.

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Princeton Insights

Highlighting some of Princeton University's most exciting recent research through short, accessible reviews.

How do our previous choices inform our future decisions?

Review written by Renee Waters (PSY)

Humans tend to make individual choices based on a series of past experiences, decisions, and outcomes. Just think about the last time you had some terrible take out: you might decide not to eat at that particular restaurant again based on your previous experience. Maybe, you take the same route to work every day because, in the past, there is less traffic on this particular route. The effects that past experiences have on choices are often termed sequential biases. These biases are present everywhere, especially in value-based decision making. You might wonder, what are the neural mechanisms driving this phenomenon? Christine Constantinople, a former postdoc at Princeton University and now an assistant professor at NYU, began to explore this question along with colleagues in the Brody Lab at Princeton.

In a recent paper, Constantinople et al. used animal models to explore which brain regions are involved in this type of biased decision-making. The researchers developed and trained rats in a novel task in which rats chose between explicitly cued, guaranteed rewards and risky, probabilistic rewards. This task involved a 3 port set-up in which the ports on one side of the center had guaranteed water rewards with consistent cues such as flashing lights and auditory tones, and the other side had probabilistic reward probability and inconsistent visual and auditory cues. The guaranteed and probabilistic cues and outcomes were randomly assigned to each side, varying in each trial. Additionally, the volume of the water rewarded varied and was chosen independently and randomly. Following several months of training, researchers determined if the meaning of the cues in the task were sufficiently understood by rats, by comparing the mean expected value, which is the probability multiplied by reward. Well-trained rats tended to choose the option with the higher expected value, meaning that on trials when both sides offered a reward, rats chose the larger reward, and when one side offered no reward, they chose the other side.

Constantinople and colleagues found that rats exhibited sequential biases just like humans and primates. If rats chose the risky, probabilistic option and were rewarded, they would gamble again and choose that side on the next trial. This behavior indicates the presence of a win-stay bias versus a loose-switch bias. Additionally, since the risky and safe port switched on each trial, the risky win-stay bias was independent of side presentation: rats didn’t show a risky win-stay bias because it coincided with side bias (e.g., preferring left vs. right). This indicates that sequential biases in rodents are expressed in non-spatial task-dependent ways, similarly to humans. Now that researchers had successfully modeled this behavior in rodents, they wondered, how might the brain represent non-spatial sequential biases?

Previous research pointed them to the lateral orbitofrontal cortex (lOFC), a brain region that has been shown to be important for flexible behavior under dynamic task contingencies. For example, lesion experiments have implicated lOFC in tracking rewards and other evaluative processes, such that lesions to this region produce impairments in these behaviors. However, while studies demonstrate that the OFC is involved in behavioral flexibility, most of these studies have used only tasks in which trial-by-trial learning improves behavioral performance. Constantinople et al. aimed to explore whether lOFC’s role in behavioral flexibility drives sequential biases even when these biases result in suboptimal or deleterious choices/outcomes.

To do this, researchers recorded from neurons in the lOFC of rats while they performed the aforementioned task. They found that lOFC neurons had transient responses at the beginning of each trial, and the magnitude of the response positively represented whether the previous trial had been rewarded or not. Constantinople and colleagues predicted that behavior driven by sequential biases may require the activity of populations of neurons, so they simultaneously recorded from multiple neurons during this same task. To analyze population data, they used tensor components analysis (TCA). TCA is an extension of more commonly used principal components analysis and serves to reduce the dimensionality of complex, multi-neuron data into a simpler form for analysis of trial-to-trial activity. The research team used TCA to extract information about neuron factors (neuron activity weights), temporal factors (time-varying dynamics within trials), and trial factors (dynamics across trials). They found that trial factors were significantly regulated by the reward history of the past two trials and, after receiving a reward, lOFC activity overall decreased on the following trial. Altogether, these data suggest that lOFC activity represents reward history, most notably during the cue presentation.

Next, the team investigated what would happen to behavior/learning if they disrupted these dynamics during the cue period. They predicted that disrupting activity would negatively affect trial-by-trial learning. Constantinople et al. used optogenetics to inhibit lOFC activity during the cue period. Surprisingly, they found that spatial win-stay or lose-switch biases were not affected by inhibition during the cue period. However, contrary to the cue period, lOFC activity at the time of the choice reflected whether rats chose the safe or risky option. The researchers saw that different subsets of neurons showed differential activity on rewarded trials when rats chose safe or risky options. Since this activity may require encoding of left/right choices during this period, they next wanted to explore if the spatial win-stay/lose-switch bias (meaning side preference) is affected by inhibition of lOFC neurons. Interestingly, optogenetic inhibition during the choice period eliminated risky win-stay biases during the subsequent trials.

Constantinople et al.’s study supports the role of the OFC in updating risk attitudes and value-based decision making. They found that lOFC reflected reward history most strongly at trial initiation before the animal had any information about the current trial. Constantinople and colleagues' work revealed additional differences between rat and primate OFC in that many neurons were selective for the side the rat decided to poke on, and such selectivity is not seen in primates. Altogether, these data implicate the OFC’s unique role in risky-win stay behavior, in addition to other value-based decision-making processes. Future work on this topic may include investigating the specific subsets of neurons within the OFC that may be responsible for the risky win-stay bias and updating dynamic risk preferences. This work provides great strides in understanding sequential biases and the OFC’s role in adaptive behaviors.

Christine Constantinople, first author of this study and former postdoc in the Brody Lab, explained that the long training times (~6 months) required for the behavioral assay used in these experiments was a major challenge of this work. She noted that "the major resource that made this work possible was a high-throughput behavioral training facility developed in the Brody lab that uses computerized procedures to train hundreds of rats (~300) per day. This facility allowed us to explore different training procedures until we found one that was reasonably efficient, and it also generated dozens of trained rats in parallel (36 in this study). "

This original paper was published by eLife on November 6, 2019. Please follow this link to view the full version.

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Decision Making Essay Examples

The decision to take a stand.

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Group Faith Integration in Business

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