summary conclusions and recommendations in research

How to Write a Conclusion for Research Papers (with Examples)

The conclusion of a research paper is a crucial section that plays a significant role in the overall impact and effectiveness of your research paper. However, this is also the section that typically receives less attention compared to the introduction and the body of the paper. The conclusion serves to provide a concise summary of the key findings, their significance, their implications, and a sense of closure to the study. Discussing how can the findings be applied in real-world scenarios or inform policy, practice, or decision-making is especially valuable to practitioners and policymakers. The research paper conclusion also provides researchers with clear insights and valuable information for their own work, which they can then build on and contribute to the advancement of knowledge in the field.

The research paper conclusion should explain the significance of your findings within the broader context of your field. It restates how your results contribute to the existing body of knowledge and whether they confirm or challenge existing theories or hypotheses. Also, by identifying unanswered questions or areas requiring further investigation, your awareness of the broader research landscape can be demonstrated.

Remember to tailor the research paper conclusion to the specific needs and interests of your intended audience, which may include researchers, practitioners, policymakers, or a combination of these.

Table of Contents

What is a conclusion in a research paper, summarizing conclusion, editorial conclusion, externalizing conclusion, importance of a good research paper conclusion, how to write a conclusion for your research paper, research paper conclusion examples.

• How to write a research paper conclusion with Paperpal? 

Frequently Asked Questions

A conclusion in a research paper is the final section where you summarize and wrap up your research, presenting the key findings and insights derived from your study. The research paper conclusion is not the place to introduce new information or data that was not discussed in the main body of the paper. When working on how to conclude a research paper, remember to stick to summarizing and interpreting existing content. The research paper conclusion serves the following purposes: 1

• Warn readers of the possible consequences of not attending to the problem.
• Recommend specific course(s) of action.
• Restate key ideas to drive home the ultimate point of your research paper.
• Provide a “take-home” message that you want the readers to remember about your study.

Types of conclusions for research papers

In research papers, the conclusion provides closure to the reader. The type of research paper conclusion you choose depends on the nature of your study, your goals, and your target audience. I provide you with three common types of conclusions:

A summarizing conclusion is the most common type of conclusion in research papers. It involves summarizing the main points, reiterating the research question, and restating the significance of the findings. This common type of research paper conclusion is used across different disciplines.

An editorial conclusion is less common but can be used in research papers that are focused on proposing or advocating for a particular viewpoint or policy. It involves presenting a strong editorial or opinion based on the research findings and offering recommendations or calls to action.

An externalizing conclusion is a type of conclusion that extends the research beyond the scope of the paper by suggesting potential future research directions or discussing the broader implications of the findings. This type of conclusion is often used in more theoretical or exploratory research papers.

Align your conclusion’s tone with the rest of your research paper. Start Writing with Paperpal Now!  

The conclusion in a research paper serves several important purposes:

• Offers Implications and Recommendations : Your research paper conclusion is an excellent place to discuss the broader implications of your research and suggest potential areas for further study. It’s also an opportunity to offer practical recommendations based on your findings.
• Provides Closure : A good research paper conclusion provides a sense of closure to your paper. It should leave the reader with a feeling that they have reached the end of a well-structured and thought-provoking research project.
• Leaves a Lasting Impression : Writing a well-crafted research paper conclusion leaves a lasting impression on your readers. It’s your final opportunity to leave them with a new idea, a call to action, or a memorable quote.

Writing a strong conclusion for your research paper is essential to leave a lasting impression on your readers. Here’s a step-by-step process to help you create and know what to put in the conclusion of a research paper: 2

• Research Statement : Begin your research paper conclusion by restating your research statement. This reminds the reader of the main point you’ve been trying to prove throughout your paper. Keep it concise and clear.
• Key Points : Summarize the main arguments and key points you’ve made in your paper. Avoid introducing new information in the research paper conclusion. Instead, provide a concise overview of what you’ve discussed in the body of your paper.
• Address the Research Questions : If your research paper is based on specific research questions or hypotheses, briefly address whether you’ve answered them or achieved your research goals. Discuss the significance of your findings in this context.
• Significance : Highlight the importance of your research and its relevance in the broader context. Explain why your findings matter and how they contribute to the existing knowledge in your field.
• Implications : Explore the practical or theoretical implications of your research. How might your findings impact future research, policy, or real-world applications? Consider the “so what?” question.
• Future Research : Offer suggestions for future research in your area. What questions or aspects remain unanswered or warrant further investigation? This shows that your work opens the door for future exploration.
• Closing Thought : Conclude your research paper conclusion with a thought-provoking or memorable statement. This can leave a lasting impression on your readers and wrap up your paper effectively. Avoid introducing new information or arguments here.
• Proofread and Revise : Carefully proofread your conclusion for grammar, spelling, and clarity. Ensure that your ideas flow smoothly and that your conclusion is coherent and well-structured.

Write your research paper conclusion 2x faster with Paperpal. Try it now!

Remember that a well-crafted research paper conclusion is a reflection of the strength of your research and your ability to communicate its significance effectively. It should leave a lasting impression on your readers and tie together all the threads of your paper. Now you know how to start the conclusion of a research paper and what elements to include to make it impactful, let’s look at a research paper conclusion sample.

How to write a research paper conclusion with Paperpal?

A research paper conclusion is not just a summary of your study, but a synthesis of the key findings that ties the research together and places it in a broader context. A research paper conclusion should be concise, typically around one paragraph in length. However, some complex topics may require a longer conclusion to ensure the reader is left with a clear understanding of the study’s significance. Paperpal, an AI writing assistant trusted by over 800,000 academics globally, can help you write a well-structured conclusion for your research paper. 

• Sign Up or Log In: Create a new Paperpal account or login with your details.  
• Navigate to Features : Once logged in, head over to the features’ side navigation pane. Click on Templates and you’ll find a suite of generative AI features to help you write better, faster.  
• Generate an outline: Under Templates, select ‘Outlines’. Choose ‘Research article’ as your document type.  
• Select your section: Since you’re focusing on the conclusion, select this section when prompted.  
• Choose your field of study: Identifying your field of study allows Paperpal to provide more targeted suggestions, ensuring the relevance of your conclusion to your specific area of research. 
• Provide a brief description of your study: Enter details about your research topic and findings. This information helps Paperpal generate a tailored outline that aligns with your paper’s content. 
• Generate the conclusion outline: After entering all necessary details, click on ‘generate’. Paperpal will then create a structured outline for your conclusion, to help you start writing and build upon the outline.  
• Write your conclusion: Use the generated outline to build your conclusion. The outline serves as a guide, ensuring you cover all critical aspects of a strong conclusion, from summarizing key findings to highlighting the research’s implications. 
• Refine and enhance: Paperpal’s ‘Make Academic’ feature can be particularly useful in the final stages. Select any paragraph of your conclusion and use this feature to elevate the academic tone, ensuring your writing is aligned to the academic journal standards. 

By following these steps, Paperpal not only simplifies the process of writing a research paper conclusion but also ensures it is impactful, concise, and aligned with academic standards. Sign up with Paperpal today and write your research paper conclusion 2x faster .  

The research paper conclusion is a crucial part of your paper as it provides the final opportunity to leave a strong impression on your readers. In the research paper conclusion, summarize the main points of your research paper by restating your research statement, highlighting the most important findings, addressing the research questions or objectives, explaining the broader context of the study, discussing the significance of your findings, providing recommendations if applicable, and emphasizing the takeaway message. The main purpose of the conclusion is to remind the reader of the main point or argument of your paper and to provide a clear and concise summary of the key findings and their implications. All these elements should feature on your list of what to put in the conclusion of a research paper to create a strong final statement for your work.

A strong conclusion is a critical component of a research paper, as it provides an opportunity to wrap up your arguments, reiterate your main points, and leave a lasting impression on your readers. Here are the key elements of a strong research paper conclusion: 1. Conciseness : A research paper conclusion should be concise and to the point. It should not introduce new information or ideas that were not discussed in the body of the paper. 2. Summarization : The research paper conclusion should be comprehensive enough to give the reader a clear understanding of the research’s main contributions. 3 . Relevance : Ensure that the information included in the research paper conclusion is directly relevant to the research paper’s main topic and objectives; avoid unnecessary details. 4 . Connection to the Introduction : A well-structured research paper conclusion often revisits the key points made in the introduction and shows how the research has addressed the initial questions or objectives. 5. Emphasis : Highlight the significance and implications of your research. Why is your study important? What are the broader implications or applications of your findings? 6 . Call to Action : Include a call to action or a recommendation for future research or action based on your findings.

The length of a research paper conclusion can vary depending on several factors, including the overall length of the paper, the complexity of the research, and the specific journal requirements. While there is no strict rule for the length of a conclusion, but it’s generally advisable to keep it relatively short. A typical research paper conclusion might be around 5-10% of the paper’s total length. For example, if your paper is 10 pages long, the conclusion might be roughly half a page to one page in length.

In general, you do not need to include citations in the research paper conclusion. Citations are typically reserved for the body of the paper to support your arguments and provide evidence for your claims. However, there may be some exceptions to this rule: 1. If you are drawing a direct quote or paraphrasing a specific source in your research paper conclusion, you should include a citation to give proper credit to the original author. 2. If your conclusion refers to or discusses specific research, data, or sources that are crucial to the overall argument, citations can be included to reinforce your conclusion’s validity.

The conclusion of a research paper serves several important purposes: 1. Summarize the Key Points 2. Reinforce the Main Argument 3. Provide Closure 4. Offer Insights or Implications 5. Engage the Reader. 6. Reflect on Limitations

Remember that the primary purpose of the research paper conclusion is to leave a lasting impression on the reader, reinforcing the key points and providing closure to your research. It’s often the last part of the paper that the reader will see, so it should be strong and well-crafted.

• Makar, G., Foltz, C., Lendner, M., & Vaccaro, A. R. (2018). How to write effective discussion and conclusion sections. Clinical spine surgery, 31(8), 345-346.
• Bunton, D. (2005). The structure of PhD conclusion chapters.  Journal of English for academic purposes ,  4 (3), 207-224.

Paperpal is a comprehensive AI writing toolkit that helps students and researchers achieve 2x the writing in half the time. It leverages 21+ years of STM experience and insights from millions of research articles to provide in-depth academic writing, language editing, and submission readiness support to help you write better, faster.  

Get accurate academic translations, rewriting support, grammar checks, vocabulary suggestions, and generative AI assistance that delivers human precision at machine speed. Try for free or upgrade to Paperpal Prime starting at US$19 a month to access premium features, including consistency, plagiarism, and 30+ submission readiness checks to help you succeed.  

Experience the future of academic writing – Sign up to Paperpal and start writing for free!  

Related Reads:

• 5 Reasons for Rejection After Peer Review
• Ethical Research Practices For Research with Human Subjects

7 Ways to Improve Your Academic Writing Process

• Paraphrasing in Academic Writing: Answering Top Author Queries

Preflight For Editorial Desk: The Perfect Hybrid (AI + Human) Assistance Against Compromised Manuscripts

You may also like, how to cite in apa format (7th edition):..., how to write your research paper in apa..., how to choose a dissertation topic, how to write a phd research proposal, how to write an academic paragraph (step-by-step guide), research funding basics: what should a grant proposal..., how to write an abstract in research papers..., how to write dissertation acknowledgements, how to write the first draft of a..., mla works cited page: format, template & examples.

Have a language expert improve your writing

Run a free plagiarism check in 10 minutes, generate accurate citations for free.

• Knowledge Base
• Research paper

Writing a Research Paper Conclusion | Step-by-Step Guide

Published on October 30, 2022 by Jack Caulfield . Revised on April 13, 2023.

• Restate the problem statement addressed in the paper
• Summarize your overall arguments or findings
• Suggest the key takeaways from your paper

The content of the conclusion varies depending on whether your paper presents the results of original empirical research or constructs an argument through engagement with sources .

Instantly correct all language mistakes in your text

Upload your document to correct all your mistakes in minutes

Table of contents

Step 1: restate the problem, step 2: sum up the paper, step 3: discuss the implications, research paper conclusion examples, frequently asked questions about research paper conclusions.

The first task of your conclusion is to remind the reader of your research problem . You will have discussed this problem in depth throughout the body, but now the point is to zoom back out from the details to the bigger picture.

While you are restating a problem you’ve already introduced, you should avoid phrasing it identically to how it appeared in the introduction . Ideally, you’ll find a novel way to circle back to the problem from the more detailed ideas discussed in the body.

For example, an argumentative paper advocating new measures to reduce the environmental impact of agriculture might restate its problem as follows:

Meanwhile, an empirical paper studying the relationship of Instagram use with body image issues might present its problem like this:

“In conclusion …”

Avoid starting your conclusion with phrases like “In conclusion” or “To conclude,” as this can come across as too obvious and make your writing seem unsophisticated. The content and placement of your conclusion should make its function clear without the need for additional signposting.

Here's why students love Scribbr's proofreading services

Discover proofreading & editing

Having zoomed back in on the problem, it’s time to summarize how the body of the paper went about addressing it, and what conclusions this approach led to.

Depending on the nature of your research paper, this might mean restating your thesis and arguments, or summarizing your overall findings.

Argumentative paper: Restate your thesis and arguments

In an argumentative paper, you will have presented a thesis statement in your introduction, expressing the overall claim your paper argues for. In the conclusion, you should restate the thesis and show how it has been developed through the body of the paper.

Briefly summarize the key arguments made in the body, showing how each of them contributes to proving your thesis. You may also mention any counterarguments you addressed, emphasizing why your thesis holds up against them, particularly if your argument is a controversial one.

Don’t go into the details of your evidence or present new ideas; focus on outlining in broad strokes the argument you have made.

Empirical paper: Summarize your findings

In an empirical paper, this is the time to summarize your key findings. Don’t go into great detail here (you will have presented your in-depth results and discussion already), but do clearly express the answers to the research questions you investigated.

Describe your main findings, even if they weren’t necessarily the ones you expected or hoped for, and explain the overall conclusion they led you to.

Having summed up your key arguments or findings, the conclusion ends by considering the broader implications of your research. This means expressing the key takeaways, practical or theoretical, from your paper—often in the form of a call for action or suggestions for future research.

Argumentative paper: Strong closing statement

An argumentative paper generally ends with a strong closing statement. In the case of a practical argument, make a call for action: What actions do you think should be taken by the people or organizations concerned in response to your argument?

If your topic is more theoretical and unsuitable for a call for action, your closing statement should express the significance of your argument—for example, in proposing a new understanding of a topic or laying the groundwork for future research.

Empirical paper: Future research directions

In a more empirical paper, you can close by either making recommendations for practice (for example, in clinical or policy papers), or suggesting directions for future research.

Whatever the scope of your own research, there will always be room for further investigation of related topics, and you’ll often discover new questions and problems during the research process .

Finish your paper on a forward-looking note by suggesting how you or other researchers might build on this topic in the future and address any limitations of the current paper.

Full examples of research paper conclusions are shown in the tabs below: one for an argumentative paper, the other for an empirical paper.

• Argumentative paper
• Empirical paper

While the role of cattle in climate change is by now common knowledge, countries like the Netherlands continually fail to confront this issue with the urgency it deserves. The evidence is clear: To create a truly futureproof agricultural sector, Dutch farmers must be incentivized to transition from livestock farming to sustainable vegetable farming. As well as dramatically lowering emissions, plant-based agriculture, if approached in the right way, can produce more food with less land, providing opportunities for nature regeneration areas that will themselves contribute to climate targets. Although this approach would have economic ramifications, from a long-term perspective, it would represent a significant step towards a more sustainable and resilient national economy. Transitioning to sustainable vegetable farming will make the Netherlands greener and healthier, setting an example for other European governments. Farmers, policymakers, and consumers must focus on the future, not just on their own short-term interests, and work to implement this transition now.

As social media becomes increasingly central to young people’s everyday lives, it is important to understand how different platforms affect their developing self-conception. By testing the effect of daily Instagram use among teenage girls, this study established that highly visual social media does indeed have a significant effect on body image concerns, with a strong correlation between the amount of time spent on the platform and participants’ self-reported dissatisfaction with their appearance. However, the strength of this effect was moderated by pre-test self-esteem ratings: Participants with higher self-esteem were less likely to experience an increase in body image concerns after using Instagram. This suggests that, while Instagram does impact body image, it is also important to consider the wider social and psychological context in which this usage occurs: Teenagers who are already predisposed to self-esteem issues may be at greater risk of experiencing negative effects. Future research into Instagram and other highly visual social media should focus on establishing a clearer picture of how self-esteem and related constructs influence young people’s experiences of these platforms. Furthermore, while this experiment measured Instagram usage in terms of time spent on the platform, observational studies are required to gain more insight into different patterns of usage—to investigate, for instance, whether active posting is associated with different effects than passive consumption of social media content.

If you’re unsure about the conclusion, it can be helpful to ask a friend or fellow student to read your conclusion and summarize the main takeaways.

• Do they understand from your conclusion what your research was about?
• Are they able to summarize the implications of your findings?
• Can they answer your research question based on your conclusion?

You can also get an expert to proofread and feedback your paper with a paper editing service .

Prevent plagiarism. Run a free check.

The conclusion of a research paper has several key elements you should make sure to include:

• A restatement of the research problem
• A summary of your key arguments and/or findings
• A short discussion of the implications of your research

No, it’s not appropriate to present new arguments or evidence in the conclusion . While you might be tempted to save a striking argument for last, research papers follow a more formal structure than this.

All your findings and arguments should be presented in the body of the text (more specifically in the results and discussion sections if you are following a scientific structure). The conclusion is meant to summarize and reflect on the evidence and arguments you have already presented, not introduce new ones.

Cite this Scribbr article

If you want to cite this source, you can copy and paste the citation or click the “Cite this Scribbr article” button to automatically add the citation to our free Citation Generator.

Caulfield, J. (2023, April 13). Writing a Research Paper Conclusion | Step-by-Step Guide. Scribbr. Retrieved August 28, 2024, from https://www.scribbr.com/research-paper/research-paper-conclusion/

Is this article helpful?

Jack Caulfield

Other students also liked, writing a research paper introduction | step-by-step guide, how to create a structured research paper outline | example, checklist: writing a great research paper, "i thought ai proofreading was useless but..".

I've been using Scribbr for years now and I know it's a service that won't disappoint. It does a good job spotting mistakes”

• +254728776317
• info@masomomsingi.com

Masomo Msingi Desktop App

MASOMO MSINGI PUBLISHERS

KASNEB – CPA | CIFA | CS | CCP | CFFE | ATD Study Notes And Revision Kitss

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This chapter summarizes the whole research process. It first provides a brief summary of the whole study with particular reference to the research problem, research methodology, results, the main contributions of the research and recommendations for future work. It provides a summary of the main findings of the study, conclusions and recommendations. This chapter should be reasonably short.

The readers would want to know whether the objectives of the study were achieved, and whether the work has contributed to knowledge. Therefore, when compiling this chapter, a researcher should focus on answering these questions.

Any conclusions drawn should be those resulting from the study. A researcher should make relevant references to chapters that support the listed findings and may also refer to the work of others for comparison. However, one should not discuss the stu1y’s results here.

Summary of the Main Findings

In summarizing, a researcher should identify the findings of the study and discuss them briefly. In addition, the methodological problems encountered should be outlined so that future/other researchers may take the relevant precautions. The researcher should clearly pinpoint if the study objectives were achieved or not. An effective summary has the following qualities:

• It bases on results from the study.
• It is brief, all statements are concise, and pinpoint to the contributions that the researcher has made.

Recommendations

• All statements are factual.

One way to present the summary is to use one paragraph for each idea. Alternatively, the researcher can use a point-by-point format.

The Conclusion section should be very brief, about half a page. It should indicate what the study results reaffirm. It should also briefly discuss some of the strategies highlighted by the respondents. In this section, the researcher should clearly state how the study has contributed to knowledge.

The recommendations section is important in research. This section often exposes further problems and introduces more questions. As a researcher, there is a time limit to the research project, so it is unlikely that the study would have solved all the problems associated with the area of study. The researcher is therefore expected to make suggestions about how his/her work can be improved, and also based on the study findings, point out whether there are areas that deserve further investigation. This section will indicate whether a researcher has a firm appreciation of his/her work, and whether he/ she has given sufficient thought to its implications, not only within the narrow confines of the research topic but to related fields. This section reflects the researcher’s foresightedness and creativity.

Written by  MJ

Building a Foundation for Sound Environmental Decisions (1997)

Chapter: 5 summary, conclusions, and recommendations, 5 summary, conclusions, and recommendations.

Pressures on the environment will continue to increase. Global population increase, rising incomes, and agricultural and industrial expansion will inevitably produce unanticipated and potentially deleterious ecological, economic, and human health consequences. Environmental research has proven its value in helping to respond to and prevent many environmental problems, and it continues to be a wise and necessary investment.

The charge to this committee was to provide an overview of significant emerging environmental issues; identify and prioritize research themes and projects that are most relevant to understanding and resolving these issues; and consider the role of EPA's research program in addressing these issues, in the context of research being conducted or sponsored by other organizations. After careful deliberation, the committee decided not to simply present a limited list of "emerging" issues with specific research projects to address them. Such an exercise would provide a mere snapshot in time, based on the insights of one particular collection of individuals. Instead—and hopefully more valuably—this report provides an overview of important environmental issues and presents a framework for organizing environmental research. The report also describes major research themes and programs of relevance to EPA; suggests criteria that can be used to identify and prioritize among important research areas; recommends actions EPA should take to build its scientific capacity; and provides illustrations of the kinds of research projects that EPA should consider.

CONCLUSIONS

As a key environmental agency, EPA needs to support and maintain a strong research program. An evolving understanding of the complexity, magnitude,

and inter-relatedness of environmental problems leads us to conclude that a new balance of research programs may be helpful. This report describes a framework for conducting research in a way that will help alleviate the problems of the moment while providing a basis for solving tomorrow's problems.

In the past, pressing environmental issues have been addressed primarily through focused research efforts directed toward solving particular problems. Although this approach to environmental research can be effective, has often been necessary, and will surely continue, it also has limitations. In order to address the abundance of established, emerging, and as-yet-unknown environmental issues, an expanded understanding of the scientific principles underlying environmental systems is needed. Achieving this understanding will require innovative, interdisciplinary approaches.

To develop the knowledge needed to address current and emerging environmental issues, EPA should undertake both problem-driven research and core research . Problem-driven research is targeted at understanding and solving identified environmental problems, while core research aims to provide broader, more generic information that will help improve understanding of many problems now and in the future. Core research includes three components: (1) understanding the processes that drive and connect environmental systems; (2) development of innovative tools and methods for understanding and managing environmental problems; and (3) long-term collection and dissemination of accurate environmental data.

Research activities within problem-driven and core research programs may often overlap. Fundamental discoveries can be made during the search for a solution to a narrowly defined problem; likewise, as illustrated earlier in this report, breakthroughs in problem-solving often occur as a result of core research efforts. Both kinds of investigations are needed, and feedback between them will greatly enhance the overall environmental research endeavor (see Figure 5-1 ).

Because EPA's task of protecting the environment and human health is so vast and difficult, and because resources to undertake the necessary research are very limited, choices will have to be made among many worthwhile projects. The approaches for making these choices will be different in the core and problem-driven portions of the research program. The former should seek better understanding of fundamental phenomena and generate broadly relevant research tools and information. The latter will be more responsive to regulatory activities and other immediate needs and should be guided by the paradigm of risk reduction. Because there are so many specific issues of importance to the public, the Congress, and EPA's own program and regional offices, there is a temptation to include many problems for attention. It is important to resist this trend: it will inevitably lead either to the dilution of efforts to solve the most pressing problems or to the reduction of funding available for critical core research needs.

FIGURE 5-1 A framework for environmental research at EPA.

Interactions among the natural environment, plants, animals, and the evergrowing human population are highly complex and inherently unpredictable. Although this report provides a broad overview of current and emerging environmental issues, it is important to note that this is merely a snapshot in time. Identification of issues requiring attention is a dynamic, continuous process.

With its limited budget, staff, and mandate, it is not possible or reasonable for EPA to act alone in understanding and addressing all environmental problems. Many other federal agencies, state agencies, other organizations (including utilities), universities, and private companies have played and will continue to play important roles in environmental research. Cooperation with others will be particularly needed in the area of environmental monitoring, a complex and costly undertaking, and in the investigation of global-scale issues.

Another factor to consider in determining EPA's research role on a particular environmental issue is whether the private sector has any incentive to study or develop better solutions, or whether the primary research must originate from the public sector to serve the public good. Examples of areas of "public good" that might deserve EPA attention include municipal wastewater and drinking water treatment, nonpoint-source pollution control, restoration of degraded ecosystems, and large-scale regional and global air pollution problems.

RECOMMENDATIONS

To enhance the productivity and effectiveness of EPA's research efforts, the committee makes recommendations in three areas: a general approach to research, core research themes, and problem-driven research themes.

Approach to Research

EPA should establish a balance between problem-driven and core research. Although there is currently an emphasis on problem-driven research projects in EPA, the core component of EPA's research program should be developed to be approximately equal in magnitude.

EPA should develop an internal mechanism for continually identifying emerging issues and then applying a risk assessment evaluation to these issues to determine the highest priorities and areas of greatest uncertainty. One important method for identifying emerging issues is to review and synthesize new findings from the core research program. EPA research personnel should be fully engaged in the issue identification and research planning process.

EPA should cooperate closely with agencies, organizations, municipalities, universities, and industries involved in environmental research. In addition to providing research support, mechanisms for cooperation might include participation of EPA management in interagency coordination efforts, participation of staff in scientific meetings and conferences, and incentives and rewards for individuals who seek out and work with their counterparts in other organizations. Collaboration should be maintained in research endeavors, environmental monitoring, data archiving, and environmental policy formulation and evaluation. EPA should continue to act as a coordinator in bringing various environmental researchers together to exchange information and ideas, possibly in the form of interdisciplinary workshops on particular environmental topics. This would also help in ''scanning the horizon" to identify new environmental trends and emerging problems. Through these meetings, EPA can discuss the relative risks as well as solutions and policies and can determine which areas require more research.

EPA should compile, publish, and disseminate an annual summary of all research being conducted or funded by the agency in order to facilitate both better cooperation with others and better internal planning. The report should be organized into broad strategic categories, with sub-categories describing program areas. Publications and other output should be listed and made available upon request.

Core Research Themes

The core component of EPA's research program should include three basic objectives:

Acquisition of systematic understanding about underlying environmental processes (such as those displayed in Table 2.2 );

Development of broadly applicable research tools, including better techniques for measuring physical, chemical, biological, social, and economic variables of interest; more accurate models of complex systems and their interactions; and new methods for analyzing, displaying, and using environmental information for science-based decision making;

Design, implementation, and maintenance of appropriate environmental monitoring programs, with evaluation, analysis, synthesis and dissemination of the data and results to improve understanding of the status of and changes in environmental resources over time and to confirm that environmental policies are having the desired effect.

Core research projects should be selected based on their relevance to EPA's mission, whether such research is already being sponsored by other agencies, and the quality of the work proposed, as determined by a peer-review process. Cross-cutting, interdisciplinary studies that take advantage of advances in many different fields will be particularly valuable.

As part of its core research efforts, EPA should conduct retrospective evaluations of the effectiveness of environmental policies and decisions. Retrospective evaluations are critical to ensuring that environmental policies are achieving their intended goals without creating unpredicted, undesirable side-effects.

EPA should make a long-term financial and intellectual commitment to core research projects. Progress in core research generally does not come quickly; therefore it is important that the agency provide adequate long-term support to this kind of knowledge development, allowing it to follow its often unpredictable course. Tool development and data collection must be ongoing endeavors in order to be fully effective.

Problem-Driven Research Themes

EPA should maintain a focused, problem-driven research program. The problem-driven and core research areas will be complementary and result in the interaction of ideas and results.

Evaluation of problem-driven research areas should focus on reducing the risks and uncertainties associated with each problem. EPA should retain its emphasis on risk assessment to prioritize among problem-driven research areas. Using criteria such as timing, novelty, scope, severity, and probability satisfies this requirement, as does the more detailed risk assessment framework described in the EPA strategic plan for ORD. Although risk assessment and

TABLE 5-1 Recommended Actions for EPA

management provide a good framework for choosing among issues, the methodology must be refined to achieve more accurate assessments.

EPA should concentrate efforts in areas where the private sector has little incentive to conduct research or develop better solutions to environmental problems.

Problem-driven research should be re-evaluated and re-focused on a regular basis to ensure that the most important problems are being addressed. Unlike core research priorities, which may not change much over time, in the problem-driven area EPA must develop adaptive feedback capabilities to allow it to change directions when new issues arise and old issues are "solved" or judged to pose less risk than expected.

This committee was not asked to, and did not, address issues concerning EPA's research infrastructure, the appropriate balance between internal and external research, mechanisms for peer review, and other research management issues. Recommendations in these areas will be made by the Committee on Research and Peer Review at EPA (see Chapter 1 ). Table 5-1 summarizes recommended

actions that are intended to provide EPA with the knowledge needed to address current and emerging environmental issues.

Good science is essential for sound environmental decision-making. By implementing the recommendations contained in this report, EPA can increase the effectiveness of its research program and thus continue to play an important role in efforts to protect the environment and human health into the next century.

Over the past decades, environmental problems have attracted enormous attention and public concern. Many actions have been taken by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and others to protect human health and ecosystems from particular threats. Despite some successes, many problems remain unsolved and new ones are emerging. Increasing population and related pressures, combined with a realization of the interconnectedness and complexity of environmental systems, present new challenges to policymakers and regulators.

Scientific research has played, and will continue to play, an essential part in solving environmental problems. Decisions based on incorrect or incomplete understanding of environmental systems will not achieve the greatest reduction of risk at the lowest cost.

This volume describes a framework for acquiring the knowledge needed both to solve current recognized problems and to be prepared for the kinds of problems likely to emerge in the future. Many case examples are included to illustrate why some environmental control strategies have succeeded where others have fallen short and how we can do better in the future.

READ FREE ONLINE

Welcome to OpenBook!

You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

Show this book's table of contents , where you can jump to any chapter by name.

...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

Switch between the Original Pages , where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter .

Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

View our suggested citation for this chapter.

Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

Get Email Updates

Do you enjoy reading reports from the Academies online for free ? Sign up for email notifications and we'll let you know about new publications in your areas of interest when they're released.

• Privacy Policy

Home » Research Recommendations – Examples and Writing Guide

Research Recommendations – Examples and Writing Guide

Table of Contents

Research Recommendations

Definition:

Research recommendations refer to suggestions or advice given to someone who is looking to conduct research on a specific topic or area. These recommendations may include suggestions for research methods, data collection techniques, sources of information, and other factors that can help to ensure that the research is conducted in a rigorous and effective manner. Research recommendations may be provided by experts in the field, such as professors, researchers, or consultants, and are intended to help guide the researcher towards the most appropriate and effective approach to their research project.

Parts of Research Recommendations

Research recommendations can vary depending on the specific project or area of research, but typically they will include some or all of the following parts:

• Research question or objective : This is the overarching goal or purpose of the research project.
• Research methods : This includes the specific techniques and strategies that will be used to collect and analyze data. The methods will depend on the research question and the type of data being collected.
• Data collection: This refers to the process of gathering information or data that will be used to answer the research question. This can involve a range of different methods, including surveys, interviews, observations, or experiments.
• Data analysis : This involves the process of examining and interpreting the data that has been collected. This can involve statistical analysis, qualitative analysis, or a combination of both.
• Results and conclusions: This section summarizes the findings of the research and presents any conclusions or recommendations based on those findings.
• Limitations and future research: This section discusses any limitations of the study and suggests areas for future research that could build on the findings of the current project.

How to Write Research Recommendations

Writing research recommendations involves providing specific suggestions or advice to a researcher on how to conduct their study. Here are some steps to consider when writing research recommendations:

• Understand the research question: Before writing research recommendations, it is important to have a clear understanding of the research question and the objectives of the study. This will help to ensure that the recommendations are relevant and appropriate.
• Consider the research methods: Consider the most appropriate research methods that could be used to collect and analyze data that will address the research question. Identify the strengths and weaknesses of the different methods and how they might apply to the specific research question.
• Provide specific recommendations: Provide specific and actionable recommendations that the researcher can implement in their study. This can include recommendations related to sample size, data collection techniques, research instruments, data analysis methods, or other relevant factors.
• Justify recommendations : Justify why each recommendation is being made and how it will help to address the research question or objective. It is important to provide a clear rationale for each recommendation to help the researcher understand why it is important.
• Consider limitations and ethical considerations : Consider any limitations or potential ethical considerations that may arise in conducting the research. Provide recommendations for addressing these issues or mitigating their impact.
• Summarize recommendations: Provide a summary of the recommendations at the end of the report or document, highlighting the most important points and emphasizing how the recommendations will contribute to the overall success of the research project.

Example of Research Recommendations

Example of Research Recommendations sample for students:

• Further investigate the effects of X on Y by conducting a larger-scale randomized controlled trial with a diverse population.
• Explore the relationship between A and B by conducting qualitative interviews with individuals who have experience with both.
• Investigate the long-term effects of intervention C by conducting a follow-up study with participants one year after completion.
• Examine the effectiveness of intervention D in a real-world setting by conducting a field study in a naturalistic environment.
• Compare and contrast the results of this study with those of previous research on the same topic to identify any discrepancies or inconsistencies in the findings.
• Expand upon the limitations of this study by addressing potential confounding variables and conducting further analyses to control for them.
• Investigate the relationship between E and F by conducting a meta-analysis of existing literature on the topic.
• Explore the potential moderating effects of variable G on the relationship between H and I by conducting subgroup analyses.
• Identify potential areas for future research based on the gaps in current literature and the findings of this study.
• Conduct a replication study to validate the results of this study and further establish the generalizability of the findings.

Applications of Research Recommendations

Research recommendations are important as they provide guidance on how to improve or solve a problem. The applications of research recommendations are numerous and can be used in various fields. Some of the applications of research recommendations include:

• Policy-making: Research recommendations can be used to develop policies that address specific issues. For example, recommendations from research on climate change can be used to develop policies that reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainability.
• Program development: Research recommendations can guide the development of programs that address specific issues. For example, recommendations from research on education can be used to develop programs that improve student achievement.
• Product development : Research recommendations can guide the development of products that meet specific needs. For example, recommendations from research on consumer behavior can be used to develop products that appeal to consumers.
• Marketing strategies: Research recommendations can be used to develop effective marketing strategies. For example, recommendations from research on target audiences can be used to develop marketing strategies that effectively reach specific demographic groups.
• Medical practice : Research recommendations can guide medical practitioners in providing the best possible care to patients. For example, recommendations from research on treatments for specific conditions can be used to improve patient outcomes.
• Scientific research: Research recommendations can guide future research in a specific field. For example, recommendations from research on a specific disease can be used to guide future research on treatments and cures for that disease.

Purpose of Research Recommendations

The purpose of research recommendations is to provide guidance on how to improve or solve a problem based on the findings of research. Research recommendations are typically made at the end of a research study and are based on the conclusions drawn from the research data. The purpose of research recommendations is to provide actionable advice to individuals or organizations that can help them make informed decisions, develop effective strategies, or implement changes that address the issues identified in the research.

The main purpose of research recommendations is to facilitate the transfer of knowledge from researchers to practitioners, policymakers, or other stakeholders who can benefit from the research findings. Recommendations can help bridge the gap between research and practice by providing specific actions that can be taken based on the research results. By providing clear and actionable recommendations, researchers can help ensure that their findings are put into practice, leading to improvements in various fields, such as healthcare, education, business, and public policy.

Characteristics of Research Recommendations

Research recommendations are a key component of research studies and are intended to provide practical guidance on how to apply research findings to real-world problems. The following are some of the key characteristics of research recommendations:

• Actionable : Research recommendations should be specific and actionable, providing clear guidance on what actions should be taken to address the problem identified in the research.
• Evidence-based: Research recommendations should be based on the findings of the research study, supported by the data collected and analyzed.
• Contextual: Research recommendations should be tailored to the specific context in which they will be implemented, taking into account the unique circumstances and constraints of the situation.
• Feasible : Research recommendations should be realistic and feasible, taking into account the available resources, time constraints, and other factors that may impact their implementation.
• Prioritized: Research recommendations should be prioritized based on their potential impact and feasibility, with the most important recommendations given the highest priority.
• Communicated effectively: Research recommendations should be communicated clearly and effectively, using language that is understandable to the target audience.
• Evaluated : Research recommendations should be evaluated to determine their effectiveness in addressing the problem identified in the research, and to identify opportunities for improvement.

Advantages of Research Recommendations

Research recommendations have several advantages, including:

• Providing practical guidance: Research recommendations provide practical guidance on how to apply research findings to real-world problems, helping to bridge the gap between research and practice.
• Improving decision-making: Research recommendations help decision-makers make informed decisions based on the findings of research, leading to better outcomes and improved performance.
• Enhancing accountability : Research recommendations can help enhance accountability by providing clear guidance on what actions should be taken, and by providing a basis for evaluating progress and outcomes.
• Informing policy development : Research recommendations can inform the development of policies that are evidence-based and tailored to the specific needs of a given situation.
• Enhancing knowledge transfer: Research recommendations help facilitate the transfer of knowledge from researchers to practitioners, policymakers, or other stakeholders who can benefit from the research findings.
• Encouraging further research : Research recommendations can help identify gaps in knowledge and areas for further research, encouraging continued exploration and discovery.
• Promoting innovation: Research recommendations can help identify innovative solutions to complex problems, leading to new ideas and approaches.

Limitations of Research Recommendations

While research recommendations have several advantages, there are also some limitations to consider. These limitations include:

• Context-specific: Research recommendations may be context-specific and may not be applicable in all situations. Recommendations developed in one context may not be suitable for another context, requiring adaptation or modification.
• I mplementation challenges: Implementation of research recommendations may face challenges, such as lack of resources, resistance to change, or lack of buy-in from stakeholders.
• Limited scope: Research recommendations may be limited in scope, focusing only on a specific issue or aspect of a problem, while other important factors may be overlooked.
• Uncertainty : Research recommendations may be uncertain, particularly when the research findings are inconclusive or when the recommendations are based on limited data.
• Bias : Research recommendations may be influenced by researcher bias or conflicts of interest, leading to recommendations that are not in the best interests of stakeholders.
• Timing : Research recommendations may be time-sensitive, requiring timely action to be effective. Delayed action may result in missed opportunities or reduced effectiveness.
• Lack of evaluation: Research recommendations may not be evaluated to determine their effectiveness or impact, making it difficult to assess whether they are successful or not.

About the author

Muhammad Hassan

Researcher, Academic Writer, Web developer

You may also like

Research Project – Definition, Writing Guide and...

Data Verification – Process, Types and Examples

Future Research – Thesis Guide

Informed Consent in Research – Types, Templates...

Research Contribution – Thesis Guide

Figures in Research Paper – Examples and Guide

Writing the parts of scientific reports

22 Writing the conclusion & recommendations

There are probably some overlaps between the Conclusion and the Discussion section. Nevertheless, this section gives you the opportunity to highlight the most important points in your report, and is sometimes the only section read. Think about what your research/ study has achieved, and the most important findings and ideas you want the reader to know. As all studies have limitations also think about what you were not able to cover (this shows that you are able to evaluate your own work objectively).

Possible structure of this section:

Use present perfect to sum up/ evaluate:

This study has explored/ has attempted …

Use past tense to state what your aim was and to refer to actions you carried out:

• This study was intended to analyse …
• The aim of this study was to …

Use present tense to evaluate your study and to state the generalizations and implications that you draw from your findings.

• The results add to the knowledge of …
• These findings s uggest that …

You can either use present tense or past tense to summarize your results.

• The findings reveal …
• It was found that …

Achievements of this study (positive)

• This study provides evidence that …
• This work has contributed to a number of key issues in the field such as …

Limitations of the study (negative)

• Several limitations should be noted. First …

Combine positive and negative remarks to give a balanced assessment:

• Although this research is somewhat limited in scope, its findings can provide a basis for future studies.
• Despite the limitations, findings from the present study can help us understand …

Use more cautious language (modal verbs may, can, could)

• There are a number of possible extensions of this research …
• The findings suggest the possibility for future research on …
• These results may be important for future studies on …
• Examining a wider context could/ would lead …

Or indicate that future research is needed

• There is still a need for future research to determine …
• Further studies should be undertaken to discover…
• It would be worthwhile to investigate …

Academic Writing in a Swiss University Context Copyright © 2018 by Irene Dietrichs. All Rights Reserved.

Have a language expert improve your writing

Run a free plagiarism check in 10 minutes, automatically generate references for free.

• Knowledge Base
• Dissertation
• How to Write Recommendations in Research | Examples & Tips

How to Write Recommendations in Research | Examples & Tips

Published on 15 September 2022 by Tegan George .

Recommendations in research are a crucial component of your discussion section and the conclusion of your thesis , dissertation , or research paper .

As you conduct your research and analyse the data you collected , perhaps there are ideas or results that don’t quite fit the scope of your research topic . Or, maybe your results suggest that there are further implications of your results or the causal relationships between previously-studied variables than covered in extant research.

Instantly correct all language mistakes in your text

Be assured that you'll submit flawless writing. Upload your document to correct all your mistakes.

Table of contents

What should recommendations look like, building your research recommendation, how should your recommendations be written, recommendation in research example, frequently asked questions about recommendations.

Recommendations for future research should be:

• Concrete and specific
• Supported with a clear rationale
• Directly connected to your research

Overall, strive to highlight ways other researchers can reproduce or replicate your results to draw further conclusions, and suggest different directions that future research can take, if applicable.

Relatedly, when making these recommendations, avoid:

• Undermining your own work, but rather offer suggestions on how future studies can build upon it
• Suggesting recommendations actually needed to complete your argument, but rather ensure that your research stands alone on its own merits
• Using recommendations as a place for self-criticism, but rather as a natural extension point for your work

The only proofreading tool specialized in correcting academic writing

The academic proofreading tool has been trained on 1000s of academic texts and by native English editors. Making it the most accurate and reliable proofreading tool for students.

Correct my document today

There are many different ways to frame recommendations, but the easiest is perhaps to follow the formula of research question   conclusion  recommendation. Here’s an example.

Conclusion An important condition for controlling many social skills is mastering language. If children have a better command of language, they can express themselves better and are better able to understand their peers. Opportunities to practice social skills are thus dependent on the development of language skills.

As a rule of thumb, try to limit yourself to only the most relevant future recommendations: ones that stem directly from your work. While you can have multiple recommendations for each research conclusion, it is also acceptable to have one recommendation that is connected to more than one conclusion.

These recommendations should be targeted at your audience, specifically toward peers or colleagues in your field that work on similar topics to yours. They can flow directly from any limitations you found while conducting your work, offering concrete and actionable possibilities for how future research can build on anything that your own work was unable to address at the time of your writing.

See below for a full research recommendation example that you can use as a template to write your own.

The current study can be interpreted as a first step in the research on COPD speech characteristics. However, the results of this study should be treated with caution due to the small sample size and the lack of details regarding the participants’ characteristics.

Future research could further examine the differences in speech characteristics between exacerbated COPD patients, stable COPD patients, and healthy controls. It could also contribute to a deeper understanding of the acoustic measurements suitable for e-health measurements.

While it may be tempting to present new arguments or evidence in your thesis or disseration conclusion , especially if you have a particularly striking argument you’d like to finish your analysis with, you shouldn’t. Theses and dissertations follow a more formal structure than this.

All your findings and arguments should be presented in the body of the text (more specifically in the discussion section and results section .) The conclusion is meant to summarize and reflect on the evidence and arguments you have already presented, not introduce new ones.

The conclusion of your thesis or dissertation should include the following:

• A restatement of your research question
• A summary of your key arguments and/or results
• A short discussion of the implications of your research

For a stronger dissertation conclusion , avoid including:

• Generic concluding phrases (e.g. “In conclusion…”)
• Weak statements that undermine your argument (e.g. “There are good points on both sides of this issue.”)

Your conclusion should leave the reader with a strong, decisive impression of your work.

In a thesis or dissertation, the discussion is an in-depth exploration of the results, going into detail about the meaning of your findings and citing relevant sources to put them in context.

The conclusion is more shorter and more general: it concisely answers your main research question and makes recommendations based on your overall findings.

Cite this Scribbr article

If you want to cite this source, you can copy and paste the citation or click the ‘Cite this Scribbr article’ button to automatically add the citation to our free Reference Generator.

George, T. (2022, September 15). How to Write Recommendations in Research | Examples & Tips. Scribbr. Retrieved 26 August 2024, from https://www.scribbr.co.uk/thesis-dissertation/research-recommendations/

Is this article helpful?

Tegan George

Other students also liked, how to write a discussion section | tips & examples, how to write a thesis or dissertation conclusion, how to write a results section | tips & examples.

Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer.

To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds to  upgrade your browser .

Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link.

• We're Hiring!
• Help Center

Chapter 5 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Related Papers

Human movement science

Peter H . Wilson

Best Practice & Research Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism

Imran Mushtaq

Linda Isherwood

CLIC Note, to be …

Barbara Dalena , D. Adams

R. Tomás 1 , E. Adli 1 , I. Ahmed 2 , PK Ambatu 3 , D. Angal-Kalinin 4 , R. Barlow 4&6 , JP Baud 5 , ... B. Bolzon 5 , H. Braun 1 , H. Burkhardt 1 , GC Burt 4 , R. Corsini 1 , B. Dalena 1 , AC Dexter 3 , ... V. Dolgashev 7 , K. Elsener 1 , JL Fernandez Hernando 4 , G. Gaillard 5 , N. Geffroy ...

Hormone Research in Paediatrics

Jillian Bryce

Background: Research and audit are vital for the management of Differences/Disorders of Sex Development (DSD). Clinical networks have a strong potential to drive these activities with the development of care standards including patient experience data and peer-observation of clinical care provision. Summary: Following the 2005 Consensus Workshop that stressed the need for the regular collection and sharing of data across geographical boundaries, the current I-DSD registry was initially launched in 2008. Over a decade later, this registry and its associated network play an increasingly important role in supporting research, training, and benchmarking of care and service. Patient registries can also facilitate the development of local circles of patients and parents with similar conditions who can support each other. Key Messages: The case for participating in standardized data collection and exchange for DSD has now been made and should be standard practice in centres that care for p...

Developmental Medicine and Child Neurology

Michael E . Stone

Address given in Sydney in Sept. 2014 to the Australian Friends of the Hebrew University and the Sir Zelman Cowan Universities Fund.

Advances in urology

Juerg C Streuli

Brian Cuthbertson

Alejandra De la Cruz

Loading Preview

Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. You can download the paper by clicking the button above.

RELATED PAPERS

Andreas Cebulla

Afzal Malik

Norlita Nemenzo

Iasir Journals

Erik Bohemia

Paul Sweatman

The ocular surface

Harminder Dua

Philippe Bisch

Reint Geuze , bouwien engelsman , Marina M. Schoemaker

Saadika Khan

Modi Mwatsama

leonel martinez martinez

Misha Zumaya

Kelly DeRango

Daniella Tilbury

Nordic Studies on Alcohol and Drugs

Katrine Schepelern Johansen

Linda Berry

Decision Support Systems

probir banerjee

The Journal of Sexual Medicine

Rik Van Lunsen , Ellen Laan

Joseph Huscroft

•   We're Hiring!
•   Help Center
• Find new research papers in:
• Health Sciences
• Earth Sciences
• Cognitive Science
• Mathematics
• Computer Science
• Academia ©2024

• University of Michigan Library
• Research Guides

The Library Research Process, Step-by-Step

• Reading Scholarly Articles
• Finding & Exploring a Topic
• Finding Books
• Finding Articles
• Evaluating Sources
• Understanding & Using a Citation Style

Reading Scholarly Articles: Step-by-Step

1. Read the Abstract Section

The first step in reading a scholarly article is to read the abstract or summary of the article. Abstracts are always found at the beginning of an article and provide a basic summary or roadmap to the article. The abstract also introduces the purpose of the article.

Take a few minutes to carefully read the abstract of the practice article. Note that the abstract is not formally labeled "abstract" but is called "background and aims." Any summary at the start of an article is considered the abstract.

The abstract should always be read first to make sure the article is relevant to your topic. However, reading the abstract should never replace reading the entire article as the abstract is too brief to be used to fully understand the article.

2. Read the Conclusion Section Reading the conclusion will help you understand the main points of the article and what the authors are attempting to prove. 

3. Read the Introduction Section Now that you have an overview of the article from the abstract and understand the main points the authors are trying to prove from the conclusion, you will want to read the introduction.

4. Read the Results Section

Read the results section. Here are a couple of suggestions for deciphering results:

• If you are a visual learner, the charts may make sense to you.
• If charts are difficult to understand, look over the narrative and then return to the charts.
• Using the charts can help enhance your understanding of the narrative
• Look for works like "important" or "significant" and make special note of these phrases as these usually are signals from the author of an important result.

5. Read the Methods Section Reading the methods section will help you understand how the study or experiment was conducted. It is necessary for other researchers to understand the methods used so that they can replicate the study.

The methods section can also be difficult to read due to technical language used and density of the section. Try circling words, acronyms, and surveys you are unfamiliar with and look them up as those may be important to fully understand the article and may be necessary for future research. 

6. Read the Discussion & Limitations Section

The discussion section is where you will find the researcher's interpretation of the results. The author should answer the article's research question. Remember, you should evaluate the data to form your own conclusions. Don't just accept the author's conclusions without looking at the data for yourself.

Often authors will include a section detailing the limits to their research and their conclusions. The limitation section will usually explain conclusions that could not be drawn from the research as well as areas that future research is needed.

7. Read Through One More Time  After you have jumped around and read the different sections of the article, go back to the beginning and read the article in order. The article should be easier to read and make more sense as you will already be familiar with the main points in each section.

Watch: How to Read a Scholarly Article

Why Watch This Video? You'll learn essential strategies for reading scientific or scholarly journal articles, including:

• Identifying distinct sections (abstract, introduction, methods, results, discussion) and the purpose of those sections 
• How to effectively skim content using the ADIRM process (Abstract, Discussion, Introduction, Results, Methods), which will help you assess scholarly articles' relevance and validity
• Distinguishing between main points and less relevant sub points within scholarly research articles. 
• Learning about and applying these techniques will save you time and effort when working through your course assignments.

• SUGGESTED TOPICS
• The Magazine
• Newsletters
• Managing Yourself
• Managing Teams
• Work-life Balance
• The Big Idea
• Data & Visuals
• Reading Lists
• Case Selections
• HBR Learning
• Topic Feeds
• Account Settings
• Email Preferences

Research: How to Build Consensus Around a New Idea

• Devon Proudfoot
• Wayne Johnson

Strategies for overcoming the disagreements that can stymie innovation.

Previous research has found that new ideas are seen as risky and are often rejected. New research suggests that this rejection can be due to people’s lack of shared criteria or reference points when evaluating a potential innovation’s value. In a new paper, the authors find that the more novel the idea, the more people differ on their perception of its value. They also found that disagreement itself can make people view ideas as risky and make them less likely to support them, regardless of how novel the idea is. To help teams get on the same page when it comes to new ideas, they suggest gathering information about evaluator’s reference points and developing criteria that can lead to more focused discussions.

Picture yourself in a meeting where a new idea has just been pitched, representing a major departure from your company’s standard practices. The presenter is confident about moving forward, but their voice is quickly overtaken by a cacophony of opinions from firm opposition to enthusiastic support. How can you make sense of the noise? What weight do you give each of these opinions? And what does this disagreement say about the idea?

• DP Devon Proudfoot is an Associate Professor of Human Resource Studies at Cornell’s ILR School. She studies topics related to diversity and creativity at work.
• Wayne Johnson is a researcher at the Utah Eccles School of Business. He focuses on evaluations and decisions about new information, including persuasion regarding creative ideas and belief change.

Partner Center

Chapter 6 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

• September 2021
• In book: The influence of financial incentive on teacher motivation and learner performance in rural Namibian schools (pp.236-259)

• International University of Management, Namibia

Discover the world's research

• 25+ million members
• 160+ million publication pages
• 2.3+ billion citations
• Recruit researchers
• Join for free
• Login Email Tip: Most researchers use their institutional email address as their ResearchGate login Password Forgot password? Keep me logged in Log in or Continue with Google Welcome back! Please log in. Email · Hint Tip: Most researchers use their institutional email address as their ResearchGate login Password Forgot password? Keep me logged in Log in or Continue with Google No account? Sign up

Information

• Author Services

Initiatives

You are accessing a machine-readable page. In order to be human-readable, please install an RSS reader.

All articles published by MDPI are made immediately available worldwide under an open access license. No special permission is required to reuse all or part of the article published by MDPI, including figures and tables. For articles published under an open access Creative Common CC BY license, any part of the article may be reused without permission provided that the original article is clearly cited. For more information, please refer to https://www.mdpi.com/openaccess .

Feature papers represent the most advanced research with significant potential for high impact in the field. A Feature Paper should be a substantial original Article that involves several techniques or approaches, provides an outlook for future research directions and describes possible research applications.

Feature papers are submitted upon individual invitation or recommendation by the scientific editors and must receive positive feedback from the reviewers.

Editor’s Choice articles are based on recommendations by the scientific editors of MDPI journals from around the world. Editors select a small number of articles recently published in the journal that they believe will be particularly interesting to readers, or important in the respective research area. The aim is to provide a snapshot of some of the most exciting work published in the various research areas of the journal.

Original Submission Date Received: .

• Active Journals
• Find a Journal
• Proceedings Series
• For Authors
• For Reviewers
• For Editors
• For Librarians
• For Publishers
• For Societies
• For Conference Organizers
• Open Access Policy
• Institutional Open Access Program
• Special Issues Guidelines
• Editorial Process
• Research and Publication Ethics
• Article Processing Charges
• Testimonials
• Preprints.org
• SciProfiles
• Encyclopedia

Article Menu

• Subscribe SciFeed
• Recommended Articles
• Google Scholar
• on Google Scholar
• Table of Contents

Find support for a specific problem in the support section of our website.

Please let us know what you think of our products and services.

Visit our dedicated information section to learn more about MDPI.

JSmol Viewer

Research on energy-saving efficiency and influencing factors of green and low-carbon enterprises based on three-stage dea and tobit models.

1. Introduction

2. research design, 2.1. three-stage dea model construction, 2.1.1. phase 1: analyzing the efficiency of traditional dea models, 2.1.2. phase 2: sfa regression modeling, 2.1.3. phase 3: adjusted dea efficiency analysis, 2.2. tobit regression model, 2.3. indicator selection, 2.3.1. input and output variables, 2.3.2. environmental variables, 2.3.3. influencing factors, 3. empirical analysis, 3.1. data sources, 3.2. measurement of energy-saving efficiency of green and low-carbon enterprises, 3.2.1. analysis of traditional dea results in the first stage, 3.2.2. second-stage sfa regression results, 3.2.3. phase-iii adjusted dea efficiency analysis, 3.2.4. analysis of influencing factors, 4. conclusions and recommendations, author contributions, institutional review board statement, informed consent statement, data availability statement, conflicts of interest.

• China Academy of Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy. 2021 Report on the Development of Strategic Emerging Industries in China ; Science Press: Beijing, China, 2020; pp. 141–142. [ Google Scholar ]
• Li, D.B.; Yuan, X.; Wang, Y. Efficiency analysis of science and technology-based enterprises in the new three boards of Sichuan province based on DEA model. Natl. Circ. Econ. 2023 , 22 , 136–139. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Wu, D.R.; Xu, Y.J. Research on the efficiency of rural e-commerce level and regional economic development in Jiangxi Province—Based on DEA model. Shanxi Agric. Econ. 2023 , 21 , 50–53. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Zhang, J.J.; Huang, B.R.; Su, L.Y. Research on energy saving and emission reduction potential of traditional industries in Jiangxi Province based on DEA model. Pract. Underst. Math. 2018 , 48 , 9–19. [ Google Scholar ]
• Sun, Y.C.; Rao, Z.H.; Tang, M.C. Evaluation of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Efficiency in Guangdong Province Based on Undesired Output. J. Harbin Inst. 2020 , 41 , 31–33. [ Google Scholar ]
• Wang, H.Y.; Lian, J.L. Evaluation of operational efficiency of new energy wind power manufacturing enterprises based on three-stage DEA. Mod. Ind. Econ. Inf. Technol. 2023 , 13 , 238–241. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Zhang, J.G.; Yang, H.J. Evaluation of provincial energy saving and emission reduction efficiency based on DDF-DEA three-stage model. China Popul.-Resour. Environ. 2018 , 28 , 24–31. [ Google Scholar ]
• Zhu, Z.H.; Li, J.J. Evaluation and trend analysis of regional energy conservation and emission reduction efficiency in Fujian Province—Based on three-stage SBM-DEA model. J. Fujian Bus. Coll. 2020 , 5 , 1–8+81. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Zhang, H.; Mao, J.H.; Wang, T.Y. The main influencing factors of technological innovation efficiency improvement in China’s intelligent manufacturing enterprises—An analysis based on the three-stage DEA-Tobit model. Res. Sci. Technol. Manag. 2023 , 43 , 95–101. [ Google Scholar ]
• Yang, Q.S.; Yang, T.A.; Shen, Z.G. Evaluation of Innovation Efficiency and Analysis of Influencing Factors in National High-Tech Zones-Based on Three-Stage DEA-Tobit Model. Innov. Technol. 2023 , 23 , 13–27. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Ma, W.B.; Zhu, H. Research on the Measurement of Innovation Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Green and Low-Carbon Enterprises-Based on Three-Stage DEA and Tobit Model. Soft Sci. 2023 , 1–12. [ Google Scholar ]
• Li, J.N. Research on Green Innovation Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors under the Perspective of Science and Technology Finance ; Gannan Normal University: Ganzhou, China, 2023. [ Google Scholar ]
• Tian, J.L.; Xiang, S.; Rong, W. Exploring the Measurement of Regional Forestry Eco-Efficiency and Influencing Factors in China Based on the Super-Efficient DEA-Tobit Two Stage Model. Forests 2023 , 14 , 300. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Han, B.; Feng, X.W.; Su, Y. Research on innovation efficiency measurement and influencing factors of Chinese new energy vehicle listed companies—Based on three-stage DEA and Tobit panel model. Sci. Technol. Prog. Countermeas. 2023 , 40 , 110–120. [ Google Scholar ]
• Lu, F.; Han, H.; He, B. Evaluation on the development of urban low-carbon passenger transportation structure in Tianjin. Res. Transp. Bus. Manag. 2024 , 55 , 101142. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Fried, H.O.; Lovell, C.K.; Schmidt, S.S. Accounting for Environmental Effects and Statistical Noise in Data Envelopment Analysis. J. Product. Anal. 2002 , 17 , 157–174. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Qin, J.J. Energy saving and carbon reduction paths in industrial enterprises. Resour. Conserv. Environ. Prot. 2023 , 12 , 1–4. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Wen, Z.L.; Zou, W. Analysis of energy-saving diagnostic problems and countermeasures for green low-carbon transformation in small and medium-sized enterprises in Jiangxi Province. Energy Res. Manag. 2023 , 4 , 10–15. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Lin, R.J. Research on Energy Measurement Management and Energy Saving and Consumption Reduction of Enterprises under the Goal of “Double Carbon”. Energy Energy Conserv. 2023 , 12 , 72–74. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Dong, Y. Research on the Impact of Energy-Saving and Environmental Protection Industrial Policy on the Investment Efficiency of Green Enterprises ; Hebei University: Tianjin, China, 2023. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Liu, S.; Kuang, J.; Ding, D.; Madsen, D.Ø.; Shi, X.; Fan, X. Low-carbon governance, fiscal decentralization, and enterprise green development: Evidence from China. PLoS ONE 2024 , 19 , e0296490. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Xiao, R.Q.; Chen, Z.W.; Qian, L. Research on innovation efficiency of China’s high-tech manufacturing industry under the perspective of heterogeneous technology. Manag. Sci. 2018 , 31 , 48–68. [ Google Scholar ]
• Dai, K.Z. The impact of technology market development on export technology complexity and its role mechanism. China Ind. Econ. 2018 , 117–135. [ Google Scholar ]
• Vandevenne, N.; Riel, V.J.; Poels, G. Green Enterprise Architecture (GREAN)—Leveraging EA for Environmentally Sustainable Digital Transformation. Sustainability 2023 , 15 , 14342. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Xia, L. The impact of government subsidies on corporate R&D investment--an empirical analysis based on strategic emerging industries. Friends Account. 2020 , 24 , 132–137. [ Google Scholar ]
• Su, Y.; Lin, Y.N. Research on the impact of government subsidies on R&D investment of new energy enterprises. Sci. Manag. Res. 2021 , 39 , 102–110. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]

Click here to enlarge figure

Share and Cite

Xu, F.; Shao, T.; Hu, R.; Zhang, M. Research on Energy-Saving Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Green and Low-Carbon Enterprises Based on Three-Stage DEA and Tobit Models. Sustainability 2024 , 16 , 7373. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177373

Xu F, Shao T, Hu R, Zhang M. Research on Energy-Saving Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Green and Low-Carbon Enterprises Based on Three-Stage DEA and Tobit Models. Sustainability . 2024; 16(17):7373. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177373

Xu, Fenfang, Teng Shao, Ruili Hu, and Minbo Zhang. 2024. "Research on Energy-Saving Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Green and Low-Carbon Enterprises Based on Three-Stage DEA and Tobit Models" Sustainability 16, no. 17: 7373. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177373

Article Metrics

Article access statistics, further information, mdpi initiatives, follow mdpi.

Subscribe to receive issue release notifications and newsletters from MDPI journals

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

• View all journals
• Explore content
• About the journal
• Publish with us
• Sign up for alerts
• Open access
• Published: 22 August 2024

Spatial and temporal changes of ecosystem service value and its influencing mechanism in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

• Yugui Lu 1 , 2 ,
• Jiacong Wang 3 &
• Xiaokun Jiang 1  

Scientific Reports volume  14 , Article number:  19476 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

226 Accesses

Metrics details

• Ecosystem services
• Environmental economics
• Sustainability

As the mainstream and trend of urban development in China, deeply exploring the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing mechanisms of ecosystem service value in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is of great significance for achieving sustainable development goals in urban agglomerations. This paper uses the normalized difference vegetation index and net primary productivity as dynamic adjustment factors to measure the ecosystem service value of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and analyze its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. Furthermore, a panel quantile regression model is constructed to explore the response differences of ecosystem service value at different levels to various influencing factors. The results show that: (1) From 2006 to 2020, the ecosystem service value of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration decreased by 37.086 billion yuan, with high-value areas mainly concentrated in the southern part of the urban agglomeration. (2) The value structure of various land type ecosystems and primary ecosystem sub-services in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is stable. (3) The number of grid units with reduced ecosystem service value is continuously increasing, mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas. (4) The degree of interference of various types of land on ecosystem service value varies, and the response of ecosystem service value at different levels to the same influencing factor also shows heterogeneity. In summary, exploring the spatiotemporal patterns of ecosystem service value in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and analyzing its influencing mechanisms is conducive to adjusting the intensity of human utilization and protection methods of ecosystems, which is of great significance for enhancing the value of ecosystem products in urban agglomerations.

Similar content being viewed by others

Spatial–temporal evolution of ESV and its response to land use change in the Yellow River Basin, China

The impact of China's urbanization on ecosystem service value from the perspective of gross ecosystem product: a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Unveiling the dynamics of urbanization and ecosystem services: insights from the Su-Xi-Chang Region, China

Introduction.

Ecosystems play a crucial role in providing humans with essential biological resources, including food and raw materials. Additionally, they also provide vital services for climate regulation, hydrology management, gas regulation, and waste disposal from human activities 1 , serve as a fundamental cornerstone for ecological security, human living environments, and sustainable economic and social development 2 . According to the United Nations Environment Programme's 2021 Annual Report, humanity still faces a significant journey in addressing the global crisis and improving the “human-earth relationship”. Promoting harmony between people and nature has become increasingly crucial. There is a global consensus on the importance of protecting and enhancing the ecology to ensure a healthy living environment for humans 3 . The conflict between the degradation of ecosystem service capacity and the growing demands of human beings is intensifying. The increasingly complex relationship between humans and land has brought the research on Ecosystem service value (ESV) to the forefront of the academic community 4 , 5 , 6 . China's urbanization level continues to rise due to rapid economic development in recent years 7 , 8 , 9 . However, this trend is accompanied by the occupation of significant amounts of arable land, wetlands, and forestland 10 , 11 . Changes in ecological land use patterns pose a serious threat to the balance of urban ecological environments 12 . Serve as the primary form and crucial driver of urbanization in China, urban agglomeration experience frequent changes in ecological land patterns during urbanization and exhibit a significant positive spatial spillover effect on urban land urbanization. This implies that an increase in the urbanization level of central cities will drive a corresponding increase in the urbanization level of adjacent cities 13 . As a new form of urbanization, the construction of urban agglomerations not only promotes regional economic development but also has a profound impact on the local ESV 14 . The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration, known as the most economically developed and highly urbanized region in China 15 . The rapid urban expansion and economic growth have attracted widespread attention 16 . The significant increase in urbanization level is accompanied by a substantial consumption of land and water resources, placing enormous pressure and challenges on the ecological environment, which is critical to the region's sustainable development and the quality of life for its residents 17 . The unique position of the YRD urban agglomeration, along with its core role in the economic pattern of China and even the world, provides an ideal case for studying the spatiotemporal pattern evolution and influence mechanisms of ESV in rapidly urbanizing areas.

The concept of ESV was first proposed by Daily (1997) and gives a numerical indicator based on monetary units, which is a quantitative estimate of the capacity of ecosystem services 18 . Costanza et al. 19 first summarized the functional types of ecosystem services and quantified the global natural asset value, laying the foundation for quantitative estimation of ESV. Since then, academics have conducted extensive research on ecosystem services. In terms of calculating ESV, the approach is based on two main dimensions: economic value and material quality. From the economic value per spective, there are the equivalent factor method 20 and the remote sensing model method 21 respectively. The material quality assessment 22 method is the perspective based on the material quality. In addition, some researches have also evaluated regional ESV by Meta-regression using the results of the available literature 23 , which is a rigorous statistical approach with strong objectivity 24 . Li et al. 25 conducted an assessment of China's terrestrial ESV from the perspective of economic value, finding a downward trend over time in the country's terrestrial ESV. Additionally, they observed spatial heterogeneity in ESV changes. Chen et al. 26 assessed the ESV of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and found that forests contributed the largest proportion to the ESV, primarily providing hydrological regulation services. They also noted that the ESV in urban areas and plains was significantly lower than in other regions. Hou et al. 27 discovered that the ESV of Xi’an in China increased along the urban–rural gradient. Scholars have extensively studied the temporal and spatial characteristics of ESV at various administrative scales, which could aid regional ecosystem management. However, to manage different ecosystems precisely, assessments need to be conducted on the ESV of specific ecosystems. Song et al. 28 found that in the wetlands of the Northeast China region, the reduction in natural wetland area was mainly converted to farmland, resulting in an overall increase in ESV. Kibria et al. 29 . conducted research on Cambodia's national forest park and identified that the value of this forest ecosystem was underestimated and faced threats from population pressure and illegal extraction.

The assessment of ESV is a way to identify ecological problems and is not sufficient for optimal regional ecosystem service management. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the influence mechanism of ESV in order to solve regional ecological problems. The research methods on exploring the impact mechanism of ESV are mainly divided into whether to consider the spatial correlation of variables. To be specific, the methods that consider the spatial correlation of variables include geographic weighted regression 30 , 31 and geographic detector 32 . The methods that do not consider the spatial correlation of variables mainly include grey correlation analysis 33 and logistic regression 34 . It has been shown that the factors affecting ESV can be summarized as both natural environmental and human factors 35 with natural factors as direct drivers and human factors as indirect drivers 36 . Natural factors mainly include vegetation growth, climate conditions and terrain conditions 37 . Vegetation can affect ESV by maintaining soil, sequestration of carbon and other ecological services 38 . For example, climatic factors represented by thermal and water conditions (temperature, rainfall) 39 , topographic relief, elevation 40 , and so on, mainly affect ESV by influencing vegetation growth. Human factors include land use, population density and economic density 41 . With the development of cities, population agglomeration and urban expansion 42 have changed the pattern of regional land use 43 as well as the accompanying socio-economic activities 44 , which indirectly affect ESV by generating pollutants 45 . Natural and human factors are intertwined, and human beings will selectively and systematically develop land use according to natural conditions 46 . However, inappropriate over-exploitation 47 and excessive population density 48 can exceed the carrying capacity of the ecosystem for human activities, resulting in serious consequences such as environmental damage (soil erosion, desertification) and ecological collapse (For example, the ecosystem service capacity is declining, and the service capacity of food provision, climate regulation and hydrological regulation is insufficient). Therefore, the investigation of ESV impact mechanisms can help humans improve the efficiency of ecosystem management and contribute to the improvement of human-land relations. Therefore, the exploration of ESV impact mechanisms can help humans to decode regional ecological problems, improve the efficiency of ecosystem management, as well as contribute to the improvement of human-earth relations.

In summary, there is an abundance of research results on the estimation of ESV and its influencing mechanisms, which lays a solid theoretical and methodological foundation for this study. By taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as the entry point, this paper will analyze the characteristics and influencing mechanisms of ESV’s spatiotemporal pattern evolution. This can provide insight for good ecosystem management in urban agglomeration across China. Additionally, it offers theoretical guidance for promoting sustainable socio-economic development and is crucial for formulating effective ecological conservation and urban planning policies, contributing to the sustainable development of the region. It also has the potential to point out new paths for the synergistic coexistence of economic development and ecological environment protection in other regions globally. The possible contributions of this paper include: (1) Calculating ESV by subdividing grid units and analyzing the ESV spatiotemporal pattern evolution from multiple perspectives, which is beneficial for more refined ecosystem management. (2) Using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and net primary productivity (NPP) as dynamic adjustment factors in the ESV accounting, making the assessment results more consistent with regional characteristics. (3) Building a panel quantile regression model and utilizing “segmented effects” to reveal the underlying mechanisms of ESV influence in depth, emphasizing the heterogeneity of various influencing factors at different ESV levels on its dynamic changing trend, providing a new perspective for the study of ESV influence mechanisms.

Study area and data sources

Study area overview.

The YRD urban agglomeration is located in the downstream region of the Yangtze River in China, with a total area of 211,700 km 2 , occupying approximately 2.2% of China's land area (Fig.  1 ). It is composed of 26 cities including Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei. The YRD urban agglomeration is low-lying in the south and high in the north, with an elevation below 10 m and scattered remnants of some solitary mountains. The YRD urban agglomeration is the region with the highest density of river network in China, with a predominantly subtropical monsoon climate and a significant increase in average annual temperature and average annual maximum and minimum temperatures in recent years. The YRD urban agglomeration has maintained high growth since 2006. According to the data of the municipal statistics bureau, the average urbanization rate of the YRD urban agglomeration reached 75.01% by 2020. As a core region, the YRD urban agglomeration had a GDP of over 20 trillion yuan in 2020, concentrating one-fourth of China's total economic output within its 2.2% regional area.

Source : Based on the standard map GS(2019)1825 from the Standard Map Service website of the Ministry of Natural Resources of China ( http://bzdt.ch.mnr.gov.cn/ ), it was clipped and produced using Arcgis10.2 software. The base map boundaries have not been modified, same as below.

Location map of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

Data sources

Since China proposed in 2006 to take urban agglomeration as the main form of advancing urbanization, this study chooses the period from 2006 to 2020 to investigate the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of ESV since the construction of urban agglomeration. The data used in this paper are mainly divided into two categories: remote sensing data and regional statistical data, the specific types and sources of which are shown in Table 1 . All remote sensing data are processed through geographical operations such as mask extraction, resampling, grid projection, and spatial statistics using ARCGIS 10.2 software. To meet the needs of this study and based on the current standards of “Land Use Status Classification” issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources of China in 2017, the land use types are reclassified into six categories: farmland, forest, grassland, water bodies, desert, and construction land. This classification provides the input data for calculating the ESV of the YRD urban agglomeration. To improve the spatial differentiation resolution and the reliability of quantile regression, this paper studies the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration at a grid scale. Previous research experience suggests that if the grid assessment unit is close to the resolution of the land use data, i.e., the unit is too small, it will destroy the relative consistency of the adjacent units 49 ; while if the grid assessment unit is close to the scale of administrative divisions, i.e., the unit is too large, it will greatly ignore the spatial differences of ESV 50 . Taking into account the actual situation of the study area and after repeated experiments, this paper divides the YRD urban agglomeration into 5 km × 5 km grids, resulting in 8764 basic assessment units for related research on ESV in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

Research methodology

This paper unfolds around the research approach of "posing questions—analyzing problems—solving problems," primarily focusing on analyzing the spatio-temporal pattern evolution and its influencing mechanisms of the ESV of the YRD urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2020. Consequently, it proposes effective ecological conservation and urban planning policies to promote regional sustainable development. The research framework is shown in Fig.  2 .

Research framework.

Remote sensing quantitative ESV accounting model

Building upon the previous work, Xie et al. 52 derived an ESV equivalent factor table specific to China through a combination of literature research, expert knowledge, and model operation. In this study, we adopt this table as the fundamental basis for calculating the ESV of the YRD urban agglomeration 52 . Additionally, taking into account the influence of social and economic factors, we estimated the average market value of grain yield per unit area in the YRD urban agglomeration. This was done by calculating the arithmetic average of the sown area and yield of major crops, such as corn, wheat, and rice, in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces within the YRD urban agglomeration for the years 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2020. We also considered the annual prices in the Chinese agricultural market for the year 2020. This paper conducted a preliminary adjustment of the ESV coefficients for the YRD urban agglomeration based on the definition of the ESV equivalent factor. Specifically, this adjustment assumes that one seventh of the average market value of grain yield in the YRD urban agglomeration for a given year represents the economic value of one equivalent factor 53 . The calculation formula is shown in the followed equation:

Let \(V\) represent the economic value of one equivalent factor. Here, \(i\) refers to the crop type, while \(n\) represents the total number of crops \(n=3\) . The planting area of the \(i\) th crop is denoted as \({s}_{i}\) , the annual average market price as \({p}_{i}\) , and the yield per unit area as \(q\) . The total planted area of the \(n\) crops is represented by \(m\) . Additionally, \({V}_{j}\) represents the value coefficient of ecosystem service for category \(j\) , and \({\beta }_{j}\) represents the current value of type \(j\) ecosystem services. The calculated market value of grain output per unit area in the YRD urban agglomeration is 17317.02 yuan/hm 2 . Consequently, using Eq. ( 1 ), the economic value of per unit equivalent in the YRD urban agglomeration is determined to be 2473.86 yuan/hm 2 . The ESV coefficients per unit area of the YRD urban agglomeration were derived from Eq. ( 2 ) (Table 2 ).

The same land use type will serve significantly different ecosystem services due to the difference of vegetation density in each land use type 54 . In addition, the net carbon sequestration by green plants in different regions through photosynthesis represents the carbon sequestration capacity of surface vegetation as well as the differences in regional ecosystem service capacity 55 . Therefore, this paper uses the NDVI to reflect the plant growth status in the region and the NPP of vegetation to reflect the carbon sequestration capacity of regional vegetation, and revises the ESV of the study area to make the evaluation results more in line with regional characteristics and ensure the credibility of the results. Finally, the formulas for calculating the ESV for each land category, each sub-service, and the ESV per unit area for each city are obtained:

Here, \({EVS}_{i}\) represents the ecosystem services value of the i-th city, and the ESV value of the YRD urban agglomeration is the cumulative value of ESV of the 26 cities in the region; \({ESV}_{im}\) represents the ESV of the mth land type of the ith city; \({ESV}_{ik}\) represents the value of the kth type of sub-service in the ith city. \({AESV}_{i}\) represents the ESV per unit area of the \(i\) th city, reflecting the abundance of natural capital in the city. \({S}_{mn}\) represents the area of the \(m\) th type of ecosystem in the \(n\) th grid unit, \({V}_{mk}\) represents the value coefficient of the \(k\) th ecosystem service of the \(m\) th type of ecosystem; \({R}_{n}\) is the dynamic adjustment factor of ESV calculated based on the spatiotemporal variation of NDVI and NPP for the \(n\) th grid unit. m represents the type of ecosystem, and since the ESV coefficient of construction land is 0, this paper does not consider the ESV of construction land, so \(a=5\) ; k represents the type of ecosystem service, \(b=9\) ; \(n\) represents the grid unit number, and the value of \(c\) is determined based on the size of the area of each city region, with a total of 8764 grid units in the YRD urban agglomeration.

The formula for the dynamic adjustment factor \({R}_{n}\) is:

In the above equation,

In the equation, \({NPP}_{mean}\) and \({f}_{mean}\) are the mean values of \(NPP\) and vegetation cover \(f\) ; \({NPP}_{n}\) and \({f}_{n}\) are the \(NPP\) and \(f\) of the \(n\) th grid unit; the calculation of vegetation cover \(f\) is obtained using the pixel-based binary model, where \({NDVI}_{veg}\) and \({NDVI}_{mean}\) represent the \(NDVI\) values of pixels that are completely covered by vegetation and pixels that have no vegetation cover, respectively. These values can be replaced by the maximum and minimum \(NDVI\) values of grid units within the region. Other variables are the same as above.

Cold hotspot analysis model

The cold-hot spot analysis method is used to identify high and low value areas in different spatial locations, that is, to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of hotspots and cold spots of ESV ecological resilience 56 . The calculation formula is as follows:

Equation ( 7 ) is normalized.

where \({W}_{ij}\) is the spatial weight matrix. \({X}_{i}\) and \({X}_{j}\) represent ESV of \(i\) and \(j\) , respectively. \(E\left({G}_{i}^{*}\right)\) and \(Var({G}_{i}^{*})\) are the mathematical expectation and coefficient of variation of \({G}_{i}^{*}\) , respectively. If \(Z({G}_{i}^{*})\) is significantly positive, it indicates that the ESV around this area is high and it belong to the hotspot area. If \(Z({G}_{i}^{*})\) is significantly negative, it indicates that the ESV around this area is low and it belong to the cold pot area.

Land use intensity index

Land use intensity reflects the degree of human interference on land resources and becomes an important driving force of environmental change. Different land use types represent the characteristics of different degrees of land use, which is an important indicator of sustainable land use 57 . According to Chen 58 ,this paper assigns values to the intensity of human use of various types of land and calculates the land use intensity index for each research unit. The specific values are: 4 for construction land; 3 for farmland; 2 for forestland, grassland and water area; 1 for desert. The calculation formula is as follows.

where \({LUI}_{j}\) represents the land use intensity index of the \(j\) th grid cell. \({S}_{i}\) is the area of category \(i\) land use type. \({D}_{i}\) is the assigned value of land use intensity of category \(i\) .

Contribution rate of ESV change

The data form of land use types could not be used in the panel quantile regression model. However, considering its most direct and dominant influence on the ESV 59 , the contribution of ecosystem services of each type of land is applied in this paper to analyze the interference extent of land use types with changes in the ESV. The contribution rate of ESV change can reveal the main influencing factors of ESV change in each city of the YRD urban agglomeration. It signifies the proportion of ESV change for different land use types in each city to the total ESV change of the city during the study period 60 , with the following formula:

where \({F}_{i}\) is the contribution rate of category \(i\) land to the change in ESV of urban agglomeration during the study period. \(i\) is the land use type. \(\Delta {ESV}_{i}\) is the change in ESV of the \(i\) th land during the study period.

Variable selection

The selection of influencing factors variables is based on the above review and analysis of influencing factors of ESV. The intensity of human activities on land use indirectly affects the natural ecosystem. In this paper, LUI was used as a variable to influence the ESV. Average annual rainfall (AAR) and average annual temperature (AAT) were selected as climate factor variables affecting the value of ecosystem services. Population density (PD) and economic density are the main socio-economic factors, which can reflect the overall characteristics of the development and utilization level of regional land resources. PD is considered to be the main driver of land use change 61 . Economic density reflects land use efficiency and regional social production development intensity 62 . Both of them affect the ESV by influencing the utilization of land resources. Therefore, the two variables were selected as the socio-economic factors affecting the ESV. Under certain conditions, night light brightness (NLB) can be used as a proxy variable of GDP, so this paper uses the regional average NLB as a proxy variable of economic density 63 . The topographic factors do not vary significantly over the years and are affected by the deficiencies of the year of monitoring data, which could not meet the data conditions of the panel regression. Therefore, topographic factors are not included in this paper.

Panel quantile regression model

The panel quantile regression model has the advantages of both the panel model and the quantile regression model, providing more information and weaker collinearity between variables. Moreover, it has strong resistance to estimation in the presence of non-normal distribution or outliers, and can provide more complete information and clearer explanation of the heterogeneity of the response of independent variables under different distributions of dependent variables 64 . This method differs from the traditional least squares regression as it minimizes the weighted absolute residuals to fit conditions at various quantiles, thereby revealing the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable across different distributions 65 . By modeling different quantiles, it is possible to analyze the effect of the independent variables at various quantile values of the dependent variable, which helps to unveil the variable sensitivity and response patterns under different conditions 66 . Panel data has both time and cross-sectional properties, greatly increasing the sample size of data, and can improve the reliability and accuracy of regression results. Due to the large amount of data and non-normal distribution with outliers in the study of ESV impact mechanisms at the grid scale, this paper overcomes the non-normal distribution and outlier problems based on the characteristics of the data, using panel data of 8764 grid units for four periods in 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2020, and selects the panel quantile regression model to explore the “segmentation effect” of the response of ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration to various influencing factors. The commonly used panel regression models include fixed effects and random effects. The Hausman test shows that the fixed effects model is more suitable for this study. The basic model is as follows:

where \({ESV}_{kt}\) is the explained variable; \(c\) is the constant term; \(\alpha\) is the regression coefficient; \({LUI}_{kt}\) is the land use intensity index; \({AAR}_{kt}\) is the average annual rainfall; \({AAT}_{kt}\) is the average annual temperature; \({PD}_{kt}\) is the population density; \({NLB}_{kt}\) is the night light brightness; The value of \({\mu }_{k}\) does not change over time as an individual effect; \({\tau }_{kt}\) is the disturbance term.

Panel fixed effects model studies the influence of each explanatory variable \(X\) on the conditional expectation \(E(ESV|X)\) of \({ESV}_{kt}\) . This is a mean reversion 67 . In the case of asymmetric distribution of \(ESV|X\) , the regression results only reflect part of the relationship between \(X\) and \(ESV\) . Quantile regression model can be used to explore the linear relationship between \(X\) and \(ESVESV\) quantiles, which can depict the conditional distribution in more detail. Therefore, regression results that are not affected by extreme values are more robust 68 . The corresponding regression coefficient estimates can be obtained for \({\varvec{X}}\) and \({\varvec{ESV}}\) at different quartiles. To sum up, this paper uses panel quantile regression model to study the influence mechanism of ESV. The model design is as follows:

where \({\varvec{\beta}}\) is the quantile, \({\varvec{\beta}} \in \left( {0,1} \right)\) ; \({\varvec{Z}}_{{{\varvec{ESV}}_{{{\varvec{kt}}}} }}\) is the \({\varvec{\beta}}\) conditional quantile of ESV; \({\varvec{c}}\left( {\varvec{\beta}} \right)\) is the constant term at the \({\varvec{\beta}}\) quartile; \({\varvec{\alpha}}\left( {\varvec{\beta}} \right)\) is the influence coefficient at the quartile of \({\varvec{\beta}}\) ; \({\varvec{\mu}}_{{\varvec{k}}} \left( {\varvec{\beta}} \right)\) is the individual effect at the quartile of \({\varvec{\beta}}\) , and other variables are the same as above.

Results analysis

Spatial and temporal patterns of esv evolution in yrd urban agglomeration.

According to Table 2 and Eq. ( 4 ), the ESV of different land categories in each city were measured by grid cells using the raster calculator tool of ARCGIS, and then summed up using the spatial statistics tool to obtain the ESV of each land category in the YRD urban agglomeration (Table 3 ). The total ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration was 8220.23, 8189.37, 8016.77 and 784.937 billion yuan in 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2020 respectively, showing a monotonically decreasing trend, but the average annual decline rate gradually stabilized. According to the land use data, the construction land of the YRD urban agglomeration that does not generate ESV has expanded by 9343.18 km 2 since 2006. The area of land types generating ESV have all decreased, leading to a decline in ESV and degradation of ecosystem service capacity in the YRD urban agglomeration. It can be seen that the spatial urbanization of the YRD urban agglomeration has brought enormous pressure to the construction of ecological civilization, and the contradiction between the degradation of ecosystem service capacity and the increasing human demand has become increasingly intense. The structure of ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration is stable, mainly dominated by forestland, farmland and water area. These three together generate more than 98% of the overall value, and their respective proportion do not change significantly over time. During this study period, the average annual decline rate of ESV generated by farmland and desert ecosystems was gradually decreasing, while that generated by grassland and water area ecosystems was gradually increasing. Stress on grassland and water area ecosystems in the YRD urban agglomeration is gradually increasing. Therefore, efforts to protect grassland and water area ecosystems should be strengthened.

Similarly, according to Table 2 and Eq. ( 5 ), the value of each sub-service for each city is obtained, and then aggregated to yield the overall value of each ecosystem sub-service for the YRD urban agglomeration. (Table 4 ). Overall, the value structure of Tier 1 subservices is stable, mainly providing adjustment services and support services, which together account for more than 82% of the overall value, with insignificant changes over time. Ecosystems regulate the pollution caused by human activities and maintain the stable operation of ecosystems through hydrological regulation, climate regulation, soil conservation and biodiversity maintenance. Among them, the capacity of supply and support service has been continuously degraded, however, the degradation rate has slowed down and the trend has been controlled since 2016. The value of regulating services and cultural services is also declining, and their average annual decline rate is expanding. The ability of ecosystems to play a role in gas regulation, hydrological regulation, climate regulation, and provision of aesthetic landscapes is continuously degrading, which may lead to a series of ecological and environmental problems in the YRD urban agglomeration, such as intensified climate change, water pollution, air pollution, ultimately resulting in the degradation of the living environment.

By combining Eqs. ( 3 ) and ( 6 ), the per unit area ESV for each city can be calculated. To visually analyze the composition of the ESV and the level of natural capital abundance in each city, a dual y-axis graph can be drawn as shown in Fig.  3 . The composition of ESV for each city is represented by a bar chart, with different colors indicating the ESV of different land categories, and their values corresponding to the y-axis on the left, unit is billion yuan. The per unit area ESV for each city is represented by a line graph, with its values corresponding to the y-axis on the right, unit is ten thousand yuan /km 2 . At the same time, since the ESV generated by grasslands and deserts accounts for a very small proportion, it is not easy to show it in the bar chart. Therefore, we take Figure a as an example and zoom in on it to illustrate the ESV generated by grasslands and deserts. Overall, the ESV and ESV per unit area in Hangzhou are the highest, which are 97.082 billion yuan and 5.7764 million yuan /km 2 respectively by 2020. Hangzhou has the strongest ecosystem service capacity and the highest degree of natural capital abundance. Although Zhoushan City has the lowest ESV, it has the highest ESV per unit area of 4.1546 million yuan/km 2 , indicating a high degree of natural capital abundance. During the study period (2006–2020), only Anqing city had a positive growth trend of ESV, while the rest of cities had a negative growth. The cities of Shanghai, Zhoushan, Changzhou, Suzhou, Jiaxing and Zhenjiang suffered serious degradation of ecosystem service capacity, and their ESV decreased by more than 10% per year compared with 2006. According to data from the regional statistical bureaus, the level of urbanization in these cities has increased significantly since 2006, which easily shows that rapidly urbanizing areas inevitably come at the cost of destroying ecosystem services. According to the analysis of land category, the urban ESV was mainly generated by farmland, forestland and water area ecosystems, while grassland and desert ecosystems ESV accounted for a small proportion. Anqing, Nantong, Hefei, Chuzhou and Yancheng, as the main food producers in the YRD urban agglomeration, have high values of farmland ecosystem services.

Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration ecosystem service value and its structure.

The ESV of the grid cells of the YRD urban agglomeration were precisely spatially located, and its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics were analyzed (Fig.  4 ). For ease of analysis, classification is carried out at intervals of 40 million yuan. The numbers in parentheses in the legend represent the quantity of grid cells, and the same applies below. Firstly, overall, ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration presents the characteristics of spatial imbalance and time instability. The spatial divergence between high and low values of ESV is obvious, and the north–south divergence of ESV becomes more obvious as time goes on. The number of high-value grid cells gradually decreases and the number of low-value grid cells gradually increases over time, and the low-value space gradually spreads to the south of the YRD urban agglomeration. Second, counting statistical analysis of grid cells with different value levels. The number of grid cells with ESV less than 40 million yuan is increasing year by year, while the number of grids with ESV greater than 80 million RMB is decreasing year by year, and there are constantly new grid cells with decreasing ESV. Third, looking at the spatial distribution of grid units with different value levels across cities. The low-value spatial units with ESV less than 80 million yuan are mainly distributed in the northern cities of the YRD urban agglomeration. The low-value space is spread out from the center of Shanghai, Hefei, Nanjing and Hangzhou. High-value spaces worth more than 160 million yuan are mainly distributed in the southern cities of the urban agglomeration, forming a solid ecological barrier for the YRD urban agglomeration.

Spatial and temporal pattern evolution of ecosystem service value in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

The spatial agglomeration characteristics of ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2020 were further explored through a cold hotspot analysis model (Fig.  5 ). Here, “HS” stands for hotspots, “CS” stands for coldspots, and “99”, “95”, “90” respectively represent significance levels of 99%, 95%, and 90%. “NS” indicates non-significant. Counting statistical analysis shows that half of the regional ESV spatial agglomeration characteristics are not significant from 2006 to 2020, and the insignificant areas are on the rise. The number and spatial distribution of agglomeration areas are more stable, and the number of high-value agglomeration areas is higher than the number of low-value agglomeration areas. High-value agglomerations are mainly located in the eastern coastal regions, while low-value agglomerations are mainly located in the northeastern part of the YRD urban agglomeration and the eastern coastal region. The high cold spot areas spatially overlap with the central city areas with high urbanization levels. It can be found from Fig.  5 that the cold spot region in northeast China, namely the agglomeration area of low ESV value, decreases year by year and transforms from the cold spot region to the insignificant region, indicating that the ecosystem service capacity of this region has changed significantly and gradually transformed from contiguous distribution to discrete distribution. Figures  3 and 4 both show that the ESV of the eastern coast and the northern region along the Yangtze River in the YRD urban agglomeration is relatively low, which has become the frontier position of urbanization construction. The southern region of the urban agglomeration builds the logistics support area of the YRD urban agglomeration.

Spatial agglomeration characteristics of ecosystem service value in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

In the same way, spatial positioning was carried out for the grid cells with ESV changes in the YRD urban agglomeration (Fig.  6 ). Analysis of their spatial and temporal pattern evolution enables accurate monitoring to identify the changing status of ESV in the region. The spatial units of ESV changes in each research stage have obvious spatial differentiation and are discretely distributed in urban agglomeration. From Fig.  6 a, b, and c, the number of grid cells with increasing (decreasing) ESV decreases (increases) with time. The percentage of the number of areas with decreasing ESV in each specific phase is 61.86%, 79.01%, and 82.98%, showing a gradual increasing trend. From Fig.  6 d, the spatial percentage of ESV reduced is 82.78%, which mainly concentrated in the contiguous areas centered on Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou, as well as the central part of Jinhua and the central part of Hefei. The spatial proportion of units with a increase in ESV is only 17.22%, which is much smaller than the number of units with a decrease in ESV. The above analysis further explains the reasons for the decrease of ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration from a spatial perspective, and the spatial positioning of the units with changed ESV can provide a reference for local governments to make decisions on targeted protection of regional ecology.

Spatial and temporal evolution of ecosystem service value changes in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

Degree of disturbance to changes in ESVs by land type

According to Eq. ( 12 ), the contribution rates of ESV changes in various land categories in each city to the overall ESV change are calculated, thereby revealing the main influencing factors of ESV change in the cities of the YRD urban agglomeration (Fig. 7 ). The overall impact of each land ecosystem on ESV change in the same city varies from period to period; the impact of each land on ESV change in different cities in the same period also varies. In this paper, the contribution rate of all types of land to ESV change exceeding 50% is defined as the main influencing factor of ESV change in the city. During the study period, the farmland ecosystem was identified as the primary influencing factor for ESV variations in Taizhou, Wuhu, Jinhua, Xuancheng, Suzhou, Anqing, and Shaoxing. Forestland ecosystem was identified as the primary influencing factor for ESV variations in Chizhou, Nantong, Nanjing, Taizhou, Chuzhou, Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Hefei and Ma 'anshan. Water area ecosystem was identified as the primary influencing factor for ESV variations in Tongling, Shanghai, Wuxi and Yancheng. From Fig.  6 , it can be observed that the degree of interference from agricultural ecosystems on ESV shows an increasing trend in Ma'anshan, Huzhou, and Jinhua. The disturbance degree of forestland ecosystem to ESV in Xuancheng City and Changzhou city also showed an increasing trend. The disturbance of water area ecosystems to ESV changes in the majority of cities showed an oscillating upward or strict upward trend, and even the disturbance to ESV changes in Shaoxing, Zhoushan, Xuancheng, Taizhou, Tongling and Wuxi cities has reached 90% during 2016–2020. Based on the above results, local governments should strengthen the monitoring and management of various kinds of ecosystems to ensure the stability of regional ecosystems and enhance the ability of regional ecosystem services.

Contribution rate of ecosystem service value change in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

Segmentation effect of influencing factors of ESV

Quantile regression can identify the degree of response of different levels of ESV to each influencing factor, i.e., the "segmentation effect" of various influencing factors on different levels of ESV, which can enable us to understand the influence mechanism of ESV in a deeper level. To precisely identify this "segmentation effect", nine quartiles from 0.1 to 0.9 are selected in the model for regression, and the results reveal the changes in the elasticity coefficients of each influencing factor in the conditional distribution of ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration (Table 5 ). The baseline regression results show that LUI, AAR, AAT, PD, and NLB which represents economic density, have significant effects on ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration. The regression coefficients of LUI and AAR are significantly negative, indicating that land development and rainfall have a significant constraining effect on the enhancement of ecosystem service capacity in the YRD urban agglomeration. The regression coefficients of AAT, PD and NLB, which represent economic activities, are significantly positive, indicating that the heat conditions provided by high temperature for plant growth, human activities and appropriate economic activities have obvious positive promoting effects on the improvement of ecological environment and the promotion of ESV capacity.

The following analyzes the "segmentation effect" of the impact factors on the influence of ESV at different levels. First, observing the quantile regression results for LUI, the regression coefficients for each quantile are significantly negative, indicating that the reduction in ESV is coerced by the exploitation of land at different ESV levels. The absolute value of the regression coefficient at the 0.1 quantile was significantly smaller than the rest of the quantile, indicating that areas with low levels of ESV were less stressed by land development at the same land use intensity. Second, the regression coefficients of AAR at different quartiles are significantly negative, probably due to the sufficient water resources and rainfall in the YRD urban agglomeration itself, which implies that increased rainfall will instead reduce ESV 69 . The overall stress effect on ESVs in the YRD urban agglomeration was characterized by an "inverted U-shape", with the 0.5 quantile as the boundary. At the 0.1 to 0.5 quantile, the lower the ESV, the stronger the stress effect of rainfall on the region, while the result was opposite at the 0.5 to 0.9 quantile. Third, the regression coefficients of AAT were not significant at the 0.6, 0.7 and 0.8 quartiles, while the rest of the quartiles were significantly positive. The promotion effect of average temperature on ESV showed a U-shaped characteristic of marginal decrease at first and then marginal increase, with a cut-off at the 0.6 quantile. Fourth, the regression coefficients of both PD and NLB were insignificant only at the 0.1 quantile, and the rest of the quantile regression coefficients were significantly positive at the 1% level and monotonically increasing with quantile. This indicates that in the natural context, if land is not developed and utilized, certain population and economic activities in the region may provide aesthetic landscape value by improving the cultural services of the ecosystem, and thus enhancing ecosystem services.

Ecosystem provides important ecological resources for human production and life, serves as a bridge and link for the harmonious development of man and nature 69 . Ecological civilization construction is the fundamental plan for China's development, and the contradiction between the degradation of ecosystem services and the ever-increasing needs of human beings is becoming increasingly intense. The quantitative accounting of ecosystem service capacity of urban agglomeration in monetary form and the spatial identification of ESV change status translate ecological and environmental issues into economic issues that is easily understandable for the public 70 , which helps the general public to understand ecological issues intuitively and aids in the monitoring of regional ecosystem dynamics 71 . The ESV was divided into different levels by quantile, and the heterogeneity of the dynamic change trend of the same influencing factor under different ESV levels was emphasized, so as to obtain a more comprehensive explanation of ESV in the affected region. It can also provide reference for local governments to manage regional ecosystems, solve ecological problems, and target policies. This article takes the YRD urban agglomeration as the research object, divides the study area into detailed grid units, and revises the ESV assessment model again with NDVI and NPP. It analyzes the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of the ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration from different perspectives. Finally, it applies panel quantile regression to analyze the mechanisms influencing ESV. The following discussions are conducted:

regarding the discussion of research methods

Costanza et al. accounted for the value of global ecosystem services and natural capital 19 , which quantified the measurement of ESV, but their results also contain biases and are not entirely applicable to ESV research in China. Xie Gaodi and others, based on Costanza et al.'s research, derived ESV equivalent factor tables suitable for China, which this article uses as the basis for measuring the ESV of the YRD urban agglomeration 52 . Based on this, the economic value per equivalent unit was first revised using the yield, planting area, and market prices of the main crops in the YRD urban agglomeration. Then, on the basis of previous work using NDVI to reflect the vegetation growth status within a region 72 , NPP was added to reflect the carbon sequestration capacity of regional vegetation for a second revision. The revised model with added NPP can measure ecosystem productivity more accurately. More importantly, NPP directly reflects the ability of ecosystems to convert CO2 into biomass, which can to some extent reflect the carbon sink potential of the region. This is of great significance in the assessment of regional ESV under China's "dual carbon" goals and conforms to the development concept that "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets." The ESV assessment model, after two rounds of revisions, can ensure that the ESV assessment results conform to regional characteristics and the characteristics of the era. It can provide decision-making references for local governments to manage regional ecosystems, solve ecological problems, and target policies. Additionally, this paper uses the panel quantile regression model to explore the mechanisms influencing ESV. Previous studies often used geodetectors 73 , geographic weighted regression models 74 , piecewise linear regression 75 , etc., to examine the mechanisms influencing ESV, ignoring the differential response levels of different ESV levels to influencing factors. This paper effectively solves this problem by using the panel quantile regression model. By dividing ESV into different levels using quantiles, it emphasizes the heterogeneity in the dynamic trends of the same influencing factor at different ESV levels, leading to a more comprehensive and scientific understanding of regional ESV influences, providing a new perspective for the study of ESV mechanisms.

In terms of the discussion of research findings

From 2006 to 2020, the ESV of the YRD urban agglomeration continuously declined, which is consistent with the results of Ding et al. 76 , confirming the reliability of the calculations in this study 77 . Moreover, the grid cells with decreased ESV have primarily expanded from coastal cities to inland areas and from urban built-up areas to the periphery. This indicates that rapid urbanization and high-intensity land development are the main reasons for the ESV decline in the YRD urban agglomeration 78 . According to the ESV grid distribution map, cities such as Hangzhou and Jinhua in the southern part of the urban agglomeration have higher ESVs, because the dominant land use type in the southern part is forest land. The study finds that the ESV of forests accounts for a relatively large proportion, which explains the higher ESV in the cities of the southern urban agglomeration. This also shows that the ESV of cities is closely related to their natural resource endowment, and during the practice of ecological civilization construction, cities should carry out targeted restoration and protection based on their local natural resource endowment. Observing the degree of disturbance of each land type on ESV changes, it's apparent that farmland, forest, and water ecosystems are the main influencing factors of ESV changes in most cities. This also suggests that in the process of ESV decline, a considerable amount of these ecosystems have been destroyed 79 . In the future, protection and restoration of the ecosystems of farmland, forests, and water areas should be strengthened in all cities, and the boundaries of urban development should be controlled 80 . Especially in shrinking cities, land development should be stopped or restricted, and existing built-up areas should be used rationally for urbanization construction 81 . The segmented effects of each influencing factor on ESV suggest that areas with higher ESV levels have a stronger negative response to land use intensity. This might be because these areas, with high ESV, initially lacked land use and development, and once they undergo land use and development, the damage to ESV is extremely severe 82 . This also tells us that when developing land, we should as much as possible adopt a contiguous development model instead of an enclave-style development model.

Future research prospects

There are also some limitations in this paper. Firstly, the accounting model of ESV has room for improvement, and the dynamic factors of spatial and temporal changes are not selected comprehensively enough, and future studies can consider more human economy, regional natural conditions and other factors. Secondly, due to the limitations of data availability and method models, the research on the influence mechanism of ESV is not comprehensive enough. For example, soil conditions, light and other factors are not considered in the analysis. In the future, new research methods can be actively explored to carry out more completed research on these aspects.

Conclusions and policy recommendations

Based on the multi-source remote sensing data, this paper combines the equivalent factor method and the quantitative remote sensing method, and integrates the NDVI and NPP factors that represent the regional habitat quality with spatial and temporal changes, to measure the ESV of the YRD urban agglomeration at the grid scale and analyze its spatial agglomeration and spatio-temporal evolution characteristics. The contribution rate model was used to explore the interference of each land use type on ESV changes. A panel quantile regression model is used to reveal the degree of difference in the response of different spatial regions of ESV to the influencing factors at different levels. The following conclusions were obtained.

First, from 2006 to 2020, the ESV of the YRD urban agglomeration continuously decreased, with a total reduction of 37.086 billion yuan. The ESV declines were more severe in Shanghai, Zhoushan, Changzhou, Suzhou, Jiaxing, and Zhenjiang.

Second, the value structure of various land-type ecosystems and primary ecosystem services in the YRD urban agglomeration is stable. The ESV is mainly generated from farmland, forest land, and water bodies, primarily providing regulation services and support services.

Third, the number of grid cells with reduced ESV is continuously increasing, mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas. From 2006 to 2020, over 80% of the grid cells experienced a decrease in ESV, primarily located in contiguous areas centered around Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, and Hangzhou.

Fourth, the degree of disturbance to ESV varies among different land types, and there is heterogeneity in the response of ESV levels to the same influencing factors. Farmland, forest land, and water bodies have a greater degree of disturbance to the ESV of the urban agglomeration. LUI exerts more stress on areas with higher ESV levels, while population and economic activities within the region have a greater promoting effect on these high ESV areas. AAR and AAT have stress and promoting effects on the ESV of the YRD urban agglomeration, respectively, exhibiting "inverted U-shaped" and "U-shaped" characteristics.

Policy recommendations

In this paper, through the study of ESV in the YRD urban agglomeration, the following policy recommendations are obtained.

Firstly, under the background of integrated urban agglomeration construction, it is crucial to establish an integrated ecosystem management mechanism centered on urban agglomerations. Facing the severe fact that many cities are experiencing a decline in ESV, it is important for urban agglomerations to coordinate and jointly demarcate ecological land use red lines with local natural resource departments that are adapted to the sustainable economic and social development of the urban agglomeration, especially the red lines for construction land use. The same applies to other urban agglomerations; they need to establish urban development boundaries and ecological land use red lines, clearly defining areas that are off-limits to development and the boundaries of ecological resources that can be used sustainably. This can ensure that the pursuit of economic development does not excessively sacrifice the health and service capacity of ecosystems.

Secondly, in the urbanization construction of urban agglomerations, the concept "to protect in development, and to develop in protection" should be practiced. Implementing ecosystem protection measures such as "compensation for occupation"—where for every piece of ecological land occupied by urbanization construction, measures such as artificial afforestation and lake creation are taken to maintain the total ESV. Actively construct urban green spaces to achieve ecological urbanization. Promoting rooftop greening, city parks, green belts, and other urban greening projects can not only enhance the ecological functions of cities but also improve residents' quality of life and the city's attractiveness.

Thirdly, the management of forest, water, and farmland ecosystems should be highly emphasized. Since the ecosystem services of the YRD urban agglomeration are primarily provided by forests, water, and farmlands, increased protection and restoration of these ecosystems is necessary. Scientific management methods and restoration technologies, such as ecological agricultural practices and wetland restoration, can be applied to enhance the natural resilience and service functions of these ecosystems. This is critical for increasing the regional ecosystem service capacity and ensuring the self-regulation ability of the regional ecosystem, maintaining stability while meeting human demands.

Fourthly, it is essential to improve the land-use efficiency of urbanized areas. According to the exploration of factors affecting ESV, in any area, land development behavior greatly damages the ecosystem service capacity. Therefore, during the urbanization process, contiguous development should be adopted to avoid “enclave-style” development as much as possible and reduce the damage to ecologically vulnerable areas. Optimize the city layout and land use to ensure that development activities are coordinated with ecological protection goals. Promote land-intensive use and contiguous development strategies to minimize the negative impact of urban expansion on ecosystems.

Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Westman, W. E. How much are nature’s services worth?. Science (New York, N.Y.) 197 , 960–964 (1977).

Article   ADS   CAS   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Liu, C. et al. Global trends and characteristics of ecological security research in the early 21st century: A literature review and bibliometric analysis. Ecol. Indic. 137 , 108734 (2022).

Article   Google Scholar  

Klarin, T. The concept of sustainable development: From its beginning to the contemporary issues. Zagreb Int. Rev. Econ. Bus. 21 , 67–94 (2018).

Wang, B., Zhang, Q. & Cui, F. Scientific research on ecosystem services and human well-being: A bibliometric analysis. Ecol. Indic. 125 , 107449 (2021).

Zhao, J. et al. The impact of land use and landscape pattern on ecosystem services in the Dongting lake region, China. Remote Sens. 15 , 2228 (2023).

Article   ADS   Google Scholar  

Ogbodo, U. S., Liu, S., Feng, S., Gao, H. & Pan, Z. Trade-offs and synergies among 17 ecosystem services in Africa: A long-term multi-national analysis. Remote Sens. 15 , 3588 (2023).

Wang, S. et al. Urbanization can benefit agricultural production with large-scale farming in China. Nat. Food 2 , 183 (2021).

Article   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Ning, Y. et al. Urban growth rates, trajectories, and multi-dimensional disparities in China. Cities 126 , 103717 (2022).

Ning, Y. et al. Dynamic multi-dimensional scaling of 30+year evolution of Chinese urban systems: Patterns and performance. Sci. Total Environ. 863 , 160705 (2023).

Article   CAS   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Chang, J. et al. Assessment of net ecosystem services of plastic greenhouse vegetable cultivation in China. Ecol. Econ. 70 , 740–748 (2011).

Wang, J., Lin, Y., Glendinning, A. & Xu, Y. Land-use changes and land policies evolution in China’s urbanization processes. Land Use Policy 75 , 375–387 (2018).

Pan, Z. & Wang, J. Spatially heterogeneity response of ecosystem services supply and demand to urbanization in China. Ecol. Eng. 169 , 106303 (2021).

Xu, D. & Hou, G. The spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of regional urbanization and its influencing factors: Taking the Yangtze River Delta as an example. Sustainability 11 , 822 (2019).

Wang, J. et al. Spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value: Evidence from the economic development of urbanised regions. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 193 , 122626 (2023).

Zhou, X., Yang, L., Gu, X., Zhang, L. & Li, L. Scarcity value assessment of ecosystem services based on changes in supply and demand: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta City cluster, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 19 , 11999 (2022).

Article   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Tian, Y. & Mao, Q. The effect of regional integration on urban sprawl in urban agglomeration areas: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta, China. Habitat Int. 130 , 102695 (2022).

Luo, Q., Zhou, J., Zhang, Y., Yu, B. & Zhu, Z. What is the spatiotemporal relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services? A case from 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. J. Environ. Manag. 321 , 115709 (2022).

Wang, Z. & Cao, J. Assessing and predicting the impact of multi-scenario land use changes on the ecosystem service value: A case study in the upstream of Xiong’an new area, China. Sustainability 13 , 704 (2021).

Costanza, R. et al. The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387 , 253–260 (1997).

Article   ADS   CAS   Google Scholar  

Costanza, R. et al. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Glob. Environ. Change Hum. Policy Dimens. 26 , 152–158 (2014).

Li, J. et al. Quantitative evaluation of ecological cumulative effect in mining area using a pixel-based time series model of ecosystem service value. Ecol. Indic. 120 , 106873 (2021).

Tiemann, A. & Ring, I. Towards ecosystem service assessment: Developing biophysical indicators for forest ecosystem services. Ecol. Indic. 137 , 108704 (2022).

Thompson, S., Vehkaoja, M., Pellikka, J. & Nummi, P. Ecosystem services provided by beavers Castor spp. Mamm. Rev. 51 , 25–39 (2021).

Woodward, R. T. & Wui, Y.-S. The economic value of wetland services: A meta-analysis. Ecol. Econ. 37 , 257–270 (2001).

Li, G., Fang, C. & Wang, S. Exploring spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem-service values and hotspots in China. Sci. Total Environ. 545 , 609–620 (2016).

Article   ADS   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Chen, W., Chi, G. & Li, J. Ecosystem services and their driving forces in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomerations, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 17 , 3717 (2020).

Hou, L., Wu, F. & Xie, X. The spatial characteristics and relationships between landscape pattern and ecosystem service value along an urban-rural gradient in Xi’an city, China. Ecol. Indic. 108 , 105720 (2020).

Song, F., Su, F., Mi, C. & Sun, D. Analysis of driving forces on wetland ecosystem services value change: A case in Northeast China. Sci. Total Environ. 751 , 141778 (2021).

Kibria, A. S. M. G., Behie, A., Costanza, R., Groves, C. & Farrell, T. The value of ecosystem services obtained from the protected forest of Cambodia: The case of Veun Sai-Siem Pang National Park. Ecosyst. Serv. 26 , 27–36 (2017).

Wang, S., Liu, Z., Chen, Y. & Fang, C. Factors influencing ecosystem services in the Pearl River Delta, China: Spatiotemporal differentiation and varying importance. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 168 , 105477 (2021).

Liu, W. et al. Spatio-temporal variations of ecosystem services and their drivers in the Pearl River Delta, China. J. Clean. Prod. 337 , 130466 (2022).

Article   CAS   Google Scholar  

Wei, X., Zhao, L., Cheng, P., Xie, M. & Wang, H. Spatial-temporal dynamic evaluation of ecosystem service value and its driving mechanisms in China. Land 11 , 1000 (2022).

Chen, M. et al. Drivers of changes in ecosystem service values in Ganjiang upstream watershed. Land Use Policy 47 , 247–252 (2015).

Chen, J. et al. Precipitation dominants synergies and trade-offs among ecosystem services across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 32 , e01886 (2021).

Google Scholar  

Wang, S., Wu, B. & Yang, P. Assessing the changes in land use and ecosystem services in an oasis agricultural region of Yanqi Basin, Northwest China. Environ. Monit. Assess. 186 , 8343–8357 (2014).

He, Y., Wang, W., Chen, Y. & Yan, H. Assessing spatio-temporal patterns and driving force of ecosystem service value in the main urban area of Guangzhou. Sci. Rep. 11 , 3027 (2021).

Article   ADS   CAS   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Li, Z., Xia, J., Deng, X. & Yan, H. Multilevel modelling of impacts of human and natural factors on ecosystem services change in an oasis, Northwest China. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 169 , 105474 (2021).

Teng, Y. et al. Spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services trade-offs among ecosystem service bundles in an alpine mountainous region: A case- study in the Qilian Mountains, Northwest China. Land Degrad. Dev. 33 , 1846–1861 (2022).

Ma, S., Wang, L.-J., Jiang, J., Chu, L. & Zhang, J.-C. Threshold effect of ecosystem services in response to climate change and vegetation coverage change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ecological shelter. J. Clean. Prod. 318 , 128592 (2021).

Ma, S., Qiao, Y.-P., Wang, L.-J. & Zhang, J.-C. Terrain gradient variations in ecosystem services of different vegetation types in mountainous regions: Vegetation resource conservation and sustainable development. For. Ecol. Manag. 482 , 118856 (2021).

Fang, L. et al. Identifying the impacts of natural and human factors on ecosystem service in the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins. J. Clean. Prod. 314 , 127995 (2021).

Li, S. et al. Impacts of urban expansion forms on ecosystem services in urban agglomerations: A case study of Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration. Remote Sens. 13 , 1908 (2021).

Deng, C. et al. How trade-offs between ecological construction and urbanization expansion affect ecosystem services. Ecol. Indic. 122 , 107253 (2021).

Ligate, E. J., Chen, C. & Wu, C. Evaluation of tropical coastal land cover and land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem service values. Ecosyst. Health Sustain. 4 , 188–204 (2018).

Kumar, R. et al. Impacts of plastic pollution on ecosystem services, sustainable development goals, and need to focus on circular economy and policy interventions. Sustainability 13 , 9963 (2021).

Houghton, R. A. The worldwide extent of land-use change. BioScience 44 , 305–313 (1994).

Wang, X. Managing land carrying capacity: Key to achieving sustainable production systems for food security. Land 11 , 484 (2022).

Wei, Y., Huang, C., Li, J. & Xie, L. An evaluation model for urban carrying capacity: A case study of China’s mega-cities. Habitat Int. 53 , 87–96 (2016).

Donaldson, D. & Storeygard, A. The view from above: Applications of satellite data in economics. J. Econ. Perspect. 30 , 171–198 (2016).

Sannigrahi, S. et al. Ecosystem service value assessment of a natural reserve region for strengthening protection and conservation. J. Environ. Manag. 244 , 208–227 (2019).

Yang, J. & Huang, X. The 30 m annual land cover dataset and its dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 13 , 3907–3925 (2021).

Xie, G., Zhang, C., Zhen, L. & Zhang, L. Dynamic changes in the value of China’s ecosystem services. Ecosyst. Serv. 26 , 146–154 (2017).

Xiao, Y., Xie, G. & An, K. Economic value of ecosystem services in Mangcuo Lake drainage basin. J. Appl. Ecol. 14 , 676–680 (2003).

Peng, J. et al. Simulating the impact of grain-for-green programme on ecosystem services trade-offs in Northwestern Yunnan, China. Ecosyst. Serv. 39 , 100998 (2019).

Yan, Y. et al. Ecosystem health assessment of the Liao River Basin upstream region based on ecosystem services. Acta Ecol. Sin. 36 , 294–300 (2016).

Zhang, G. et al. Mapping changes in the value of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches Megalopolis, China. Ecosyst. Serv. 48 , 101252 (2021).

Wiggering, H. et al. Indicators for multifunctional land use: Linking socio-economic requirements with landscape potentials. Ecol. Indic. 6 , 238–249 (2006).

Chen, W., Chi, G. & Li, J. The spatial association of ecosystem services with land use and land cover change at the county level in China, 1995–2015. Sci. Total Environ. 669 , 459–470 (2019).

Rotich, B., Kindu, M., Kipkulei, H., Kibet, S. & Ojwang, D. Impact of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem service values in the Cherangany hills water tower. Kenya. Environ. Chall. 8 , 100576 (2022).

Fenglian, L. & Renyi, Y. Evolution of Land use patterns in national central cities and its impact on ecosystem service values: A case study of Wuhan city. Res. Soil Water Conserv. 28 , 177–183 (2021).

Du, X., Jin, X., Yang, X., Yang, X. & Zhou, Y. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving force in Jiangsu province. IJERPH 11 , 3215–3232 (2014).

van der Sluis, T., Pedroli, B., Kristensen, S. B. P., Lavinia Cosor, G. & Pavlis, E. Changing land use intensity in Europe—Recent processes in selected case studies. Land Use Policy 57 , 777–785 (2016).

Mellander, C., Lobo, J., Stolarick, K. & Matheson, Z. Night-time light data: A good proxy measure for economic activity?. PLoS ONE 10 , e0139779 (2015).

Galvao, A. F. Jr. Quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects. J. Econom. 164 , 142–157 (2011).

Article   MathSciNet   Google Scholar  

Das, K., Krzywinski, M. & Altman, N. Quantile regression. Nat. Methods 16 , 451–452 (2019).

Duan, K., Ren, X., Shi, Y., Mishra, T. & Yan, C. The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach. Energy Econ. 95 , 105131 (2021).

Heckman, J. J., Ichimura, H. & Todd, P. Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator. Rev. Econ. Stud. 65 , 261–294 (1998).

Chernozhukov, V. & Hansen, C. Instrumental variable quantile regression: A robust inference approach. J. Econom. 142 , 379–398 (2008).

Yang, Y. et al. Modulations of surface thermal environment and agricultural activity on intraseasonal variations of summer diurnal temperature range in the Yangtze River Delta of China. Sci. Total Environ. 736 , 139445 (2020).

Wang, J., Zhai, T., Lin, Y., Kong, X. & He, T. Spatial imbalance and changes in supply and demand of ecosystem services in China. Sci. Total Environ. 657 , 781–791 (2019).

Crossman, N. D. & Bryan, B. A. Identifying cost-effective hotspots for restoring natural capital and enhancing landscape multifunctionality. Ecol. Econ. 68 , 654–668 (2009).

Hu, M. et al. Spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value in response to land-use/cover changes in the Pearl River Delta. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 149 , 106–114 (2019).

Han, X., Yu, J., Shi, L., Zhao, X. & Wang, J. Spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem service values in an area dominated by vegetation restoration: Quantification and mechanisms. Ecol. Indic. 131 , 108191 (2021).

Liu, C. et al. Spatiotemporal differentiation and mechanism of anthropogenic factors affecting ecosystem service value in the Urban Agglomeration around Poyang Lake, China. Ecol. Indic. 154 , 110733 (2023).

Shi, J. et al. How socioeconomic factors affect ecosystem service value: Evidence from China. Ecol. Indic. 145 , 109589 (2022).

Ding, T., Chen, J., Fang, Z. & Chen, J. Assessment of coordinative relationship between comprehensive ecosystem service and urbanization: A case study of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations, China. Ecol. Indic. 133 , 108454 (2021).

Dai, X. et al. Spatio-temporal variations of ecosystem services in the urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China. Ecol. Indic. 115 , 106394 (2020).

Meng, F. et al. Urban ecological transition: The practice of ecological civilization construction in China. Sci. Total Environ. 755 , 142633 (2021).

Shao, M., Wu, L., Li, F. & Lin, C. Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem services and the driving factors in urban agglomerations: Evidence from 12 National Urban Agglomerations in China. Front. Ecol. Evol. 10 , 804969 (2022).

Liu, Y., Gao, Y., Liu, L., Song, C. & Ai, D. Nature-based solutions for urban expansion: Integrating ecosystem services into the delineation of growth boundaries. Habitat Int. 124 , 102575 (2022).

Xie, M., Feng, Z., Song, Y., Guan, H. & Wang, S. How does urban shrinkage affect land use efficiency? A case study of shrinking cities in Northeast China. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 34 , 34–51 (2024).

Wu, Q., Yang, L. & Mi, J. Detecting the effects of opencast mining on ecosystem services value in arid and semi-arid areas based on time-series remote sensing images and Google Earth Engine (GEE). BMC Ecol. Evol. 24 , 28 (2024).

Download references

Guangxi Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Research Project, NO.22CJL004.

Author information

Authors and affiliations.

School of Mathematics and Physics, Hechi University, Hechi, 546300, Guangxi, China

Yugui Lu & Xiaokun Jiang

School of Economy and Trade, Guangxi Vocational Normal University, Nanning, 530007, Guangxi, China

School of Economics, Guangxi Minzu University, Nanning, 530006, Guangxi, China

Jiacong Wang

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Contributions

Conceptualization, Y.L., X.J.; methodology, X.J., J.W.; software, X.J.; validation, Y.L., J.W.; formal analysis, X.J, J.W.; investigation, X.J., Y.L.; resources, Y.L.; data gathering, X.J.; writing—original draft preparation, Y.L.; writing—review and editing, J.W.; visualization, Y.L.; supervision, Y.L.; project administration, X.J.; funding acquisition, Y.L. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xiaokun Jiang .

Ethics declarations

Competing interests.

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher's note.

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ .

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article.

Lu, Y., Wang, J. & Jiang, X. Spatial and temporal changes of ecosystem service value and its influencing mechanism in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Sci Rep 14 , 19476 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70248-2

Download citation

Received : 13 December 2023

Accepted : 14 August 2024

Published : 22 August 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70248-2

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

• Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration
• Ecosystem service value
• Multi-source remote sensing data
• Panel quantile regression
• Spatial and temporal pattern evolution

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines . If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Quick links

• Explore articles by subject
• Guide to authors
• Editorial policies

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.