research topics of climate change

Climate Change - A Global Issue
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What is climate change?

Background Climate change is an urgent global challenge with long-term implications for the sustainable development of all countries.

Exploring the Topic

Climate.gov NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) maintains this gateway to peer-reviewed information on climate change for various audiences, from the layperson to teachers to scientists to planners and policy makers. Provides access to relevant data sets from a number of agencies, including the National Climatic Data Center and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Eldis resource guide on climate change (IDS) The Eldis website is maintained by the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex. It facilitates the sharing of information on development issues by aggregating information materials from reputable sources into the resource guide on climate change. It offers tools to create online communities for development practitioners; several such communities exist to discuss specific aspects of climate change. Eldis topic editors compile email newsletters, so-called reporters, including the “Climate Change and Development” reporter.
IIED - International Institute for Environment and Development Well-established policy research institute that offers an online library of information materials on climate change and related topics, such as energy, biodiversity and forests. Publicizes its research output through email newsletters and on various social media channels.
IISD - International Institute for Sustainable Development IISD offers a searchable and browsable knowledge base of its publications and video on climate change. IISDs LINKAGES reporting services closely monitor major international climate change meetings, including those of the IPCC and under the UNFCCC. IISD publishes the Earth Negotiations Bulletin, hosts the climate-l electronic mailing list and publicizes its work on twitter and Facebook.

Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change

Watch this video by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to learn more about what is at stake and what actions need to be taken to mitigate the impact of climate change globally.

More videos on other aspects of climate change can be found on the IPCC's YouTube page .

Related Research Guides

UN Research Guides on issues related to environment:

Climate Change - A Global Issue by Dag Hammarskjöld Library Last Updated May 6, 2024 15154 views this year
UN Documentation: Environment by Dag Hammarskjöld Library Last Updated May 15, 2024 10925 views this year

Other resource guides on climate change and related topics:

Peace Palace Library: Environmental Law Starting point for research in the field of International Environmental Law provided by the Peace Palace Library in The Hague.
Next: At the United Nations >>
Last Updated: May 6, 2024 4:22 PM
URL: https://research.un.org/en/climate-change

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The Top 10 Most Interesting Climate Change Research Topics

Finishing your environmental science degree may require you to write about climate change research topics. For example, students pursuing a career as environmental scientists may focus their research on environmental-climate sensitivity or those studying to become conservation scientists will focus on ways to improve the quality of natural resources.

Climate change research paper topics vary from anthropogenic climate to physical risks of abrupt climate change. Papers should focus on a specific climate change research question. Read on to learn more about examples of climate change research topics and questions.

Find your bootcamp match

What makes a strong climate change research topic.

A strong climate change research paper topic should be precise in order for others to understand your research. You must use research methods to find topics that discuss a concern about climate issues. Your broader topic should be of current importance and a well-defined discourse on climate change.

Tips for Choosing a Climate Change Research Topic

Research what environmental scientists say. Environmental scientists study ecological problems. Their studies include the threat of climate change on environmental issues. Studies completed by these professionals are a good starting point.
Use original research to review articles for sources. Starting with a general search is a good place to get ideas. However, as you begin to refine your search, use original research papers that have passed through the stage of peer review.
Discover the current climatic conditions of the research area. The issue of climate change affects each area differently. Gather information on the current climate and historical climate conditions to help bolster your research.
Consider current issues of climate change. You want your analyses on climate change to be current. Using historical data can help you delve deep into climate change effects. First, however, it needs to back up climate change risks.
Research the climate model evaluation options. There are different approaches to climate change evaluation. Choosing the right climate model evaluation system will help solidify your research.

What’s the Difference Between a Research Topic and a Research Question?

A research topic is a broad area of study that can encompass several different issues. An example might be the key role of climate change in the United States. While this topic might make for a good paper, it is too broad and must be narrowed to be written effectively.

A research question narrows the topic down to one or two points. The question provides a framework from which to start building your paper. The answers to your research question create the substance of your paper as you report the findings.

How to Create Strong Climate Change Research Questions

To create a strong climate change research question, start settling on the broader topic. Once you decide on a topic, use your research skills and make notes about issues or debates that may make an interesting paper. Then, narrow your ideas down into a niche that you can address with theoretical or practical research.

2. Economic Impact of Climate Change

Climate can have a negative effect on both local and global economies. While the costs may vary greatly, even a slight change could cost the United States a loss in the Global Domestic Product (GDP). For example, rising sea levels may damage the fiber optic infrastructure the world relies on for trade and communication.

3. Solutions for Reducing the Effect of Future Climate Conditions

Solutions for reducing the effect of future climate conditions range from reducing the reliance on fossil fuels to reducing the number of children you have. Some of these solutions to climate change are radical ideas and may not be accepted by the general population.

4. Federal Government Climate Policy

The United States government’s climate policy is extensive. The climate policy is the federal government’s action for climate change and how it hopes to make an impact. It includes adopting the use of electric vehicles instead of gas-powered cars. It also includes the use of alternative energy systems such as wind energy.

5. Understanding of Climate Change

Understanding climate change is a broad climate change research topic. With this, you can introduce different research methods for tracking climate change and showing a focused effect on specific areas, such as the impact on water availability in certain geographic areas.

6. Carbon Emissions Impact of Climate Change

Carbon emissions are a major factor in climate change. Due to the greenhouse effect they cause, the world is seeing a higher number of devastating weather events. An increase in the number and intensity of tsunamis, hurricanes, and tornados are some of the results.

7. Evidence of Climate Change

There is ample evidence of climate change available, thanks to the scientific community. However, some of these implications of climate change are hotly contested by those with poor views about climate scientists. Proof of climate change includes satellite images, ice cores, and retreating glaciers.

8. Cause and Mitigation of Climate Change

The causes of climate change can be either human activities or natural causes. Greenhouse gas emissions are an example of how human activities can alter the world’s climate. However, natural causes such as volcanic and solar activity are also issues. Mitigation plans for these effects may include options for both causes.

9. Health Threats and Climate Change

Climate change can have an adverse effect on human health. The impacts on health from climate change can include extreme heat, air pollution, and increasing allergies. The CDC warns these changes can cause respiratory threats, cardiovascular issues, and heat-related illnesses.

10. Industrial Pollution and the Effects of Climate Change

Just as car emissions can have an adverse effect on the climate, so can industrial pollution. It is one of the leading factors in greenhouse gas effects on average temperature. While the US has played a key role in curtailing industrial pollution, other countries need to follow suit to mitigate the negative impacts it causes.

Climate Change Research Questions

What are some mitigation and adaptation to climate change options for farmers?
How do alternative energy sources play a role in climate change?
Do federal policies on climate change help reduce carbon emissions?
What impacts of climate change affect the environment?
Do climate change and social movements mean the end of travel?

Choosing the Right Climate Change Research Topic

Choosing the correct climate change research paper topic takes continuous research and refining. Your topic starts as a general overview of an area of climate change. Then, after extensive research, you can narrow it down to a specific question.

You need to ensure that your research is timely, however. For example, you don’t want to address the effects of climate change on natural resources from 15 or 20 years ago. Instead, you want to focus on views about climate change from resources within the last five years.

Climate Change Research Topics FAQ

A climate change research paper has five parts, beginning with introducing the problem and background before moving into a review of related sources. After reviewing, share methods and procedures, followed by data analysis . Finally, conclude with a summary and recommendations.

A thesis statement presents the topic of your paper to the reader. It also helps you as you begin to organize your paper, much like a mission statement. Therefore, your thesis statement may change during writing as you start to present your arguments.

According to the US Forest Service, climate change issues are related to topics regarding forest management, biodiversity, and species distribution. Climate change is a broad focus that affects many topics.

To write a research paper title, a good strategy is not to write the title right away. Instead, wait until the end after you finish everything else. Then use a short and to-the-point phrase that summarizes your document. Use keywords from the paper and avoid jargon.

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The trends of major issues connecting climate change and the sustainable development goals

Open access
Published: 12 March 2024
Volume 5 , article number 31 , ( 2024 )

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Yi-Lin Hsieh 1 &
Shin-Cheng Yeh 1

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This study aims to explore the research trends and patterns of major issues connecting climate change and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by employing a bibliometric analysis. The study has found that there is an increasing number of research and policies in various countries committed to finding and implementing strategies to solve climate change issues. The countries with the most research in this field are China, India, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, with Environmental Sciences & Ecology being the most published domain. The study has identified 19 clusters intersecting with climate change and SDGs, with the top five clusters in terms of proportion related to agricultural and food systems, water and soil resources, energy, economy, ecosystem, and sustainable management. This study also presents the trend changes of research topics intersecting climate change and SDGs every 2–3 years. Especially in the recent two years, with the convening of COP26 and COP27 and the advocacy of Net Zero and CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) of the EU, important topics include renewable energy, protection of ecosystem services, life cycle assessment, food security, agriculture in Africa, sustainable management, synergies of various policies, remote sensing technology, and desertification among others. This shows an increasingly diversified range of important topics being discussed in relation to climate change and sustainable development goals.

Climate Change Responses and Sustainable Development: Integration of Mitigation and Adaptation

Trends in Research Around the Sustainable Development Objectives: A Bibliometric Analysis

Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia: exploring practices, determinants, and contribution to Sustainable Development Goals

Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.

1 Introduction

1.1 background.

Climate change has emerged as a pressing global issue that poses significant challenges to human societies and the environment [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]. Climate change is primarily due to human activities, particularly the extensive combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. These human activities generate a substantial amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, leading to global warming.

Global warming, a persistent increase in Earth’s average temperature, is the most significant manifestation of climate change. This change in climate has led to numerous severe effects, including an increase in extreme weather events [ 2 ] (such as storms, floods, and droughts), the melting of glaciers and ice caps, a rise in sea levels, and changes to ecosystems [ 4 ] and agriculture [ 5 , 6 ]. If left these impacts unchecked, these impacts could have disastrous consequences for human societies and the natural environment.

In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The goal was "to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system," and it required countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with their responsibilities, abilities, and specific circumstances. The first substantive agreement of the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol [ 7 ], was signed in 1997, requiring industrialized countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to below 5% of 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. In 2009, the UN hosted a climate change conference in Copenhagen in an attempt to reach a new global agreement; however, the meeting ended without a clear agreement and was considered a failure [ 8 ]. The Paris Agreement [ 9 ] was signed at the UN Climate Change Conference in 2015, with the goal of keeping global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve this, countries agreed to submit nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to reduce emissions and to review these goals every five years. These agreements and meetings highlight the challenges of combating climate change, including in science, policy, economics, and justice. A key issue is how to ensure economic development and poverty reduction while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These challenges and issues are intimately related to sustainable human development.

The Brundtland Report, “Our Common Future [ 10 ],” was released by the United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development in 1987. The report first introduced the concept of “sustainable development,” defined as “meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” The Rio Declaration [ 11 ] and Agenda 21 [ 12 ] were both signed at the Earth Summit in 1992. The Rio Declaration included 27 principles on sustainable development, while Agenda 21 was a global action plan aimed at achieving a balance between the environment and development. In 2000, the United Nations established eight development goals to be achieved by 2015, known as the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which included reducing extreme poverty and hunger, improving levels of education, health, and gender equality, and ensuring environmental sustainability. The United Nations General Assembly adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 2015, which outlines 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a blueprint for achieving a more sustainable future for all [ 13 ].

Among them, SDG13 (Climate Action) is directly related to climate change, with the aim to "take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts". SDG13 encourages all countries to respond to climate change, strengthen their resilience and adaptability to its impacts, and integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and plans. The goal also emphasizes enhancing education, raising people's awareness of the threats posed by climate change, and increasing institutional capacities to handle climate change. It also refers to global participation and cooperation in addressing these issues. This includes development assistance to help developing countries enhance their capacities to deal with climate change.

The goal of sustainable development is to achieve balance in social, economic, and environmental dimensions, a principle also known as the “triple bottom line [ 14 ].” Under this framework, it is not only necessary to ensure economic growth and social justice but also to ensure the health and sustainability of the Earth's ecosystems and resources. Therefore, addressing climate change is an integral part of achieving sustainable development. On the other hand, accomplishing one or more sustainable development goals is also a way to address climate change issues.

1.2 Research frontier

Addressing the issue of climate change faces many challenges and obstacles, including political challenges, economic factors, technological challenges, social and cultural barriers, and issues of inequality. Firstly, policy makers need to strike a balance between short-term economic benefits and long-term environmental sustainability. Political disagreements and national interests can also hinder the achievement and implementation of global climate agreements [ 15 , 16 ]. Secondly, transitioning to a low-carbon economy requires a significant amount of funding and investment. Many economically backward countries may lack resources to implement necessary changes [ 17 ]. Thirdly, although renewable energy technologies have made significant progress, these technologies still can't completely replace fossil fuels in many cases [ 18 ]. Fourthly, human lifestyles and consumption patterns need to undergo major changes, which may face resistance in many societies and cultures [ 19 ]. Lastly, the impacts of climate change are not equal globally. Some of the poorest and most vulnerable countries and communities are often the most affected, yet they lack the resources and capacity to cope with these changes [ 20 ].

There are numerous studies related to climate change, and these studies encompass a wide range of issues. Issues related to climate change and sustainable development goals [ 21 ], for example, the water-energy-food (nexus), has been extensively studied in relation to climate change in the past [ 22 ]. In this issue, systematic analyses, comparisons, interpretations, and governance recommendations have been proposed, along with in-depth exploration of sustainable development goals and appropriate management models [ 23 , 24 , 25 ].

The connection between climate change and the SDGs is evident, as the impacts of climate change have the potential to undermine the progress made towards achieving these goals [ 166 , 167 ]. For instance, climate change has direct implications for SDGs [ 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 ] related to poverty reduction(SDG1: NO Poverty), food security(SDG2: No Hunger) [ 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 ],energy(SDG7: Affordable and clean energy) [ 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 ], clean water and sanitation(SDG6: Clean water and sanitation), and sustainable cities [ 44 , 45 , 46 ] and communities(SDG11 Sustainable cities and communities). People must take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, including enhancing the resilience and adaptive capacity of nations to climate-related disasters, and integrating climate change measures into national policies and planning(SDG13: Climate action). Therefore, understanding the trends and patterns of research on the interlinkages between climate change and the SDGs is crucial for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners to identify gaps and prioritize efforts in addressing these challenges [ 47 , 48 , 49 ].

However, many topics still require systematic research to formulate sustainable management strategies. For instance, key decisions from the COP26 held in 2021 included the formulation of long-term low-carbon development strategies, strengthening actions to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gases (such as methane), and enhancing the intensity of nationally determined contributions (NDC) targets for 2030 [ 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 ]. Comprehensive assessments are needed on how countries can gradually reduce coal burning and phase out fossil fuel subsidies, as well as establish rules for the international carbon market [ 54 ].

In order to follow these resolutions, the majority of countries around the world are currently formulating net-zero emission management strategies. Net-zero emissions mean that the greenhouse gas emissions produced by an organization, city, region, or country are balanced by the amount they offset, thereby contributing zero to global warming [ 55 ].

When systematically formulating net-zero management strategies, there are several important topics that need to be considered, such as energy transition (requiring investment and policy promotion to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy) [ 56 , 57 ], green infrastructure (constructing low-carbon, green infrastructure, such as green buildings and public transportation systems) [ 58 ], green finance (encouraging and guiding financial institutions to invest in low-carbon technologies and industries, and incorporating climate risks into their risk management frameworks) [ 59 ], carbon pricing (establishing and implementing carbon pricing systems, such as carbon taxes or carbon trading markets, to reflect their true environmental costs), and international cooperation (climate change is a global issue that requires cooperation among countries to share resources and technology).

It involves multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These strategies need to take into account trade-offs or synergistic effects, including the balance between economy and environment (energy transition may lead to job loss in certain industries, but it may also create new job opportunities. Appropriate policies are needed to mitigate the impact of this transition) [ 60 , 61 , 62 ], fairness (wealthier countries have more resources to reduce emissions, while poorer countries may rely more on fossil fuels. To resolve this inequality, international aid or other mechanisms may be needed) [ 63 , 64 ], cross-sector collaboration (many solutions will require cooperative work between different sectors or industries, such as energy, transportation, construction, finance, etc.) [ 65 , 66 ], technological innovation and application (from improving energy efficiency to developing clean energy, and designing and implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, technological innovation plays a key role in achieving net-zero. Of course, this also requires resource input and a suitable policy environment to incentivize and support) [ 67 , 68 , 69 ], behavioral and cultural change (to successfully achieve net-zero, it may be necessary to change public behavior and values, from dietary habits to travel methods, and attitudes towards energy use. This may involve education, policy guidance, and public participation) [ 70 , 71 ], and ecological restoration and protection (forests, oceans, and other natural ecosystems are important carbon sinks of the planet. Protecting and restoring these ecosystems can provide important offset strategies, while also helping to protect biodiversity and enhance ecological resilience) [ 72 ].

Strategies to address climate change include mitigation and adaptation. The aforementioned net zero is a mitigation strategy, while the formulation of adaptation strategies to manage and respond to climate change also requires systematic consideration. This includes disaster prevention and post-disaster recovery, water resource management, adjustments to farming and livestock practices, urban planning and design, protection and restoration of ecosystems, and policy and legislation among other topics. Additionally, research suggests that enhancing the ability to manage extreme weather events can reduce economic, social, and human losses, and ultimately decrease borrowing from lending institutions. The vulnerability to extreme weather events, disaster management, and adaptation must become part of the long-term sustainable development planning for developing countries [ 73 , 74 , 75 , 76 ].

In this process, there indeed exist many challenges, echoing the previously mentioned obstacles faced in tackling the issue of climate change. These include technical, policy-related, economic, social, and cultural aspects. Therefore, people must take a systemic and holistic approach, implementing solutions to climate change from the framework of sustainable development.

Currently, there are over ten thousand academic papers discussing the relevance of climate change or one or more Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). There are numerous ways to summarize, integrate, or categorize these research perspectives. Common methods include convening expert meetings [ 77 , 168 ] or using literature mining software [ 73 , 74 , 78 , 169 , 170 ] such as VOSviewer, Microsoft Excel, and Biblioshiny, to conduct structured reviews of the interrelationships between Climate Change (CC) and SDGs.

The discussions at the expert meeting revealed the synergies and trade-offs between climate change and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as the impact of climate change (CC) on the achievement of the SDGs [ 77 ]. Using literature software, the bibliometrix package, and R library, it was found that precipitation, drought, and evapotranspiration are the main climate terms most focused on under the topic of climate change [ 79 ]. Moreover, an analysis using Microsoft Excel on published journal articles found that gender equality, climate action, and global health are the key words most focused on in studies related to the Sustainable Development Goals. Some researchers also presented the evolution of themes over the years, and the co-occurrence maps of key words in the context of climate change and sustainable development practice, and found that there have been many research studies in these areas, but there is still a need for more in-depth study [ 80 ].

However, as highlighted in the background, after the 2015 Paris Agreement and the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals were proposed, researchers worldwide are called upon to perform comprehensive and systematic analyses, categorizations, and discussions of the results presented by these literature analysis tools. These efforts aim to aid researchers and policymakers in addressing climate change and its related problems, as well as formulating suitable strategies for these issues, all from a perspective of sustainable development. These areas continue to require further in-depth research, and bibliometric analysis can serve as one effective method in this regard.

1.3 Research questions

The research question of this study is to examine the trends of major issues connecting climate change and the SDGs, as reflected in the literature [ 81 , 82 ]. In particular, the study aims to identify the most prominent Clusters and sub-Clusters related to this intersection and to understand the evolution of research in this area over time. This examination will help uncover potential gaps in knowledge, as well as highlight areas in need of further investigation or policy intervention.

Additionally, when systematically analyzing the issues and sub-issues of climate change within the framework of sustainable development, we still do not have a clear understanding of how many important issues related to climate change have emerged since the United Nations announced the Sustainable Development Goals in 2015, as well as the proportion of these issues in the research or which fields is leading in these areas [ 75 , 77 , 83 ]. The policy-making and research processes have not had sufficient literature to help understand the varying degrees of correlation between these issues to aid policy-makers or researchers in making appropriate strategies. Moreover, one indicator of the current situation in various countries is the development status of how researchers or research institutions in these countries view climate change within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals, but there is limited academic research on the issues connecting climate change and the sustainable development goals [ 84 ].

This study poses four questions:

Q1: What are the main research topics at the intersection of climate change and sustainable development goals?

Q2: How have the research trends at the intersection of climate change and sustainable development goals developed?

Q3: What are the main research countries at the intersection of climate change and sustainable development goals?

Q4: What are the main research fields at the intersection of climate change and sustainable development goals?

1.4 Methodological approach

This study employs a bibliometric analysis to systematically review and analyze the body of literature on the connection between climate change and the SDGs. Bibliometric analysis is a quantitative method that employs statistical techniques to analyze and classify large volumes of academic publications. This method has the advantage of providing a comprehensive and objective overview of the research landscape [ 85 ], as compared to traditional literature reviews and other classification methods, which may be subject to biases and limited in scope [ 80 , 86 , 87 ].

1.5 Significance of the study

The findings of this study will provide valuable insights into the trends and patterns of research on the interlinkages between climate change and the SDGs, helping to inform future research agendas and policy interventions. By identifying the most prominent Clusters and potential knowledge gaps in this area, this study can contribute to a better understanding of how climate change and the SDGs are interconnected, thereby supporting the development of more effective strategies to address these pressing global challenges.

1.6 Potential applications

The results of this study can be applied in various ways. For instance, the findings can be used by researchers to identify research gaps and opportunities, guiding the direction of future studies. Policymakers and practitioners can also use the insights gained from this study to prioritize efforts and allocate resources more effectively in addressing the challenges posed by climate change and achieving the SDGs. Furthermore, the study can contribute to the development of interdisciplinary research, as understanding the complex interconnections between climate change and the SDGs requires the integration of knowledge from multiple fields and disciplines.

In conclusion, this study aims to explore the research trends and patterns of major issues connecting climate change and the SDGs using a bibliometric analysis. The findings will provide valuable insights for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners.

2 Methodology

2.1 literature mining tools.

This study analyzes and categorizes literature using the two tools. The first one is called Content Analysis Toolkit for Academic Research (CATAR), the other one is called VOSviewer.

2.1.1 The benefits of using CATAR for literature analysis

CATAR is designed to help researchers analyze scholarly literature with academic value. CATAR is particularly effective in multidimensional scaling (MDS) and hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC) [ 88 ], which can be used as one of the presentation directions for research outcomes. MDS is a technique that presents n documents on a map according to their similarity [ 89 ], where documents with high similarity cluster in close proximity to each other, while those with low similarity are located further apart. HAC is a type of document clustering [ 90 ] that does not require users to specify the number of categories and can iteratively group the most similar documents or categories into larger groups, gradually organizing all documents from the bottom up. In particular, the complete linkage method can group files that are highly similar to each other into the same group. Therefore, if two files cite common bibliography, they will generate a coupling relationship, and the more bibliography they share, the higher the correlation will be, and the more likely they will be classified into the same category.

The topic map of this study was generated by CATAR using multidimensional scaling (MDS) technique to calculate the relative relationships between categories in a two-dimensional space and draw the topic map accordingly. In the map, circles represent a group of documents classified into the same cluster, with the size of the circle indicating the number of documents in the group, and the distance between circles representing the strength of the relationship between the groups. The closer the circles, the higher the relevance between the topics. The color of the circle represents the classification result in the next higher level, and if the circle is composed of dashed lines, it indicates that it cannot be clustered in the next level [ 91 ].

2.1.2 The benefits of using VOSviewer for literature analysis

The second tool used in this study is VOSviewer, which is a visualization tool characterized by its technical robustness and relatively simple usage. It allows for a detailed examination of bibliometric maps. In the network visualization maps produced by VOSviewer, each label is represented by a colored node, with node size determined by the frequency of use of the item. The higher the usage frequency of an item, the larger its label. In addition, the thickness of the nodes and connecting lines indicates the co-occurrence frequency of the labels. Nodes with the same color have stronger connections [ 74 , 84 , 85 , 92 ].

As keyword co-occurrence network analysis is one of the most effective methods, a large number of studies have used VOSviewer for topics such as climate change or sustainable energy [ 91 , 93 , 94 ], helping researchers quantify trends in research Clusters and future research directions. This study use keyword co-occurrence network analysis in Vosviewer.

2.2 Explanation of data background

2.2.1 the selection of the database.

The data source for this study is the Web of Science (WoS) academic database by Thomson Routers. Analysis of citation data in WoS has shown greater consistency and accuracy than other databases such as Scopus and Google Scholar, [ 95 ] thus this study only analyzed journals included in WoS.

2.2.2 Boolean operators

The background setting for downloading data from WoS was as follows: TS = (climate change) AND AB = ("sustainable development goal" OR "sustainable development goals" OR SDG OR SDGs). These documents are focused on the Cluster of climate change, and the mention of SDGs in the abstract refers to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. The SDGs aim to address major global issues, including poverty, hunger, inequality, and climate change. Therefore, if a document related to climate change also involves SDGs, it may explore how to link climate change with sustainable development goals to achieve a more sustainable future. Such research may investigate the impact of climate change on sustainable development goals or how to address issues related to climate change by achieving sustainable development goals.

2.2.3 The status of literature download

In order to understand the research trends up to December 31, 2022, a total of 2533 articles were downloaded for analysis. On the other hand, when downloading data from the WOS database, it was found that the closer it was to 2022, the more literature discussed CC and SDGs. In order to understand the research trends every 2–3 years and appropriately distribute the number of articles for analysis, research from 2015 to 2017, 2018 to 2022, and 2021 to 2022 was also downloaded. A total of 177 articles were from the first three years, 955 articles were from the middle three years, and 1401 articles were from the last two years.

3 Results and discussion

The research results are presented using the analysis results of two tools, CATAR and VOSviewer. The two research tools are distinguished by date. The data analyzed by the CATAR tool dates from 2015 to 2022, and this tool carries out a comprehensive analysis of the literature. The data analyzed by the VOSviewer tool is divided into three parts: 2015–2017 (the first three years), 2018–2020 (the middle three years), and 2021–2022 (the most recent two years), to understand the development trends of the research field. In addition, CATAR also specifically presents the main research fields and research countries of the literature as academic references.

3.1 Results and dicussion of bibliographic coupling analysis by using CATAR (2015–2022)

Using CATAR for bibliographic coupling analysis and multiple hierarchical agglomerative clustering, 19 clusters (A-1 to A-19) were obtained at the fourth level, with 1220 documents participating in clustering. The characteristic vocabulary of each cluster is shown in Table 1 (with a default threshold of 0.01), and the degree of association is shown in Fig. 1 , (with a threshold set to 0.02). Furthermore, the top five clusters in terms of proportion are related to agricultural and food systems, water and soil resources, energy, economy, ecosystem, and sustainable management, with a proportion of 53% of the documents in this level. The first cluster has the highest proportion of 34%.

Maps of the clusters (2015–2022)

In Fig. 1 , clusters 10, 11, 15, and 17 are in green, clusters 4 and 14 are in blue, and clusters 12, and 16 are in yellow. These colors indicate that they can continue to form clusters in the next level and suggest that these topics are worth exploring as they are related to each other. Dashed circles represent clusters that cannot be agglomerated in the next level.

Referring to Table 1 for the keywords condensed in each cluster, appropriate names for the clusters are assigned. The results are shown in Table 2 .

Through the research results of Fig. 1 , since the circles represent the knowledge content contained in the cluster, considering factors such as circle color, circle size, and the intersection and union of circles, a systematic discussion is conducted below.

3.1.1 The relationship about A-10, A-11, A15 and A17 (color green)

In the green circle, A-10, A-11, A-15, and A-17 are four significant topics. The critical issues intersecting these four topics, this study discovered, include "Adaptation and mitigation strategies", "Integration of knowledge and collaboration", and "Urban and community context".

The four Clusters collectively highlight the importance of both adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to climate change. Cluster 10 emphasizes the need to understand and address the health impacts of climate change as an adaptation measure [ 88 , 89 , 96 ]. Cluster 11 focuses on building resilience in coastal areas, which is another form of adaptation [ 97 ]. Cluster 15 covers various aspects of climate change adaptation strategies, including public health, particularly sanitation issues, large urban environments, and the application of green and blue infrastructure. It emphasizes the importance of considering these issues from both local and global perspectives [ 98 , 99 , 100 , 101 , 102 ]. Cluster 17 centers on mitigation strategies such as achieving carbon neutrality through renewable energy sources [ 95 , 97 , 103 , 104 , 105 ].

Clusters 11 and 17 highlight the importance of integrating knowledge from various sources and fostering collaboration between different stakeholders. Cluster 11 emphasizes the role of knowledge integration in sustainability governance, while Cluster 17 involves surveys and research on carbon balance and renewable energy, which require collaboration among experts from various fields.

Cluster 10, 11 and 17 explore the impacts of climate change and sustainable development within urban or community settings. Cluster 10 investigates the relationship between climate change and health in the context of planetary health. Cluster 15 addresses the role of green and blue infrastructure in promoting sustainable development within mega-urban areas. Cluster 17 focuses on achieving carbon neutrality in cities or countries, which has direct implications for urban and community sustainability.

3.1.2 The relationship between “ocean conservation and coral reef biodiversity” (A-12) and “corporate cultural sustainability” (A-16) (color yellow)

The relationship between "Ocean Conservation and Coral Reef Biodiversity" and "Corporate Cultural Sustainability" is closely connected to climate change and ongoing sustainable development [ 106 , 107 , 108 ]. Many companies recognize the importance of environmental sustainability, particularly in the context of climate change and sustainable development. They incorporate this into their business strategies, which includes supporting ocean conservation and preserving coral reef biodiversity through environmentally-friendly practices, philanthropy, or partnerships with non-profit organizations. Examples of this include adopting sustainable practices and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, promoting innovation in products, services, and technologies that contribute to ocean conservation and coral reef biodiversity protection, and collaborating with various stakeholders, including customers, employees, investors, and local communities, to address the challenges of climate change and support ocean conservation and coral reef biodiversity preservation [ 109 , 110 , 111 ].

3.1.3 The relationship between “ecosystems and land degradation” (A-4) and “urban infrastructure and governance” (A-14) (color blue)

First, Climate change poses threats to ecosystems and land, including extreme weather events and unstable rainfall patterns. Ecosystems play a crucial role in land conservation, water resource management, and biodiversity protection. Disrupting ecosystems increases the risk of land degradation, adversely affecting agriculture and ecological environments. Protecting and restoring ecosystems are key to achieving sustainable development goals [ 171 , 172 ].

Second, rapid urbanization necessitates large-scale infrastructure development. The expansion and management of urban infrastructure are directly linked to land use. Poor urban planning and management can lead to improper land use, overdevelopment, and environmental deterioration. Effective urban governance should emphasize the sustainability of land use, including land planning and environmental regulation. Sustainable urban infrastructure and governance help reduce the risk of land degradation while achieving sustainable development goals [ 173 , 174 , 175 , 176 ].

Therefore, the relationship between ecosystems and land degradation and urban infrastructure and governance should be viewed comprehensively. The expansion and management of urban infrastructure should fully consider ecosystem protection and land degradation prevention. For instance, urban planning may include the preservation of green spaces and natural conservation areas to promote ecosystem health. Moreover, urban governance should emphasize the involvement of multiple stakeholders to ensure that land use and infrastructure development align with the principles of sustainable development. This necessitates interdisciplinary research and policy formulation to ensure effective management of land resources during the urbanization process while safeguarding ecosystems to address climate change and achieve sustainable development goals.

3.2 Ranking of countries by the number of published papers, citation count, and publication year

The overview analysis through CATAR is used to present the top eight countries in terms of the number of published papers. Considering that each piece of literature might be co-authored by multiple individuals, the analysis results are presented using Fractional Count (FC). FC means that all the co-authors are counted as a single author. For instance, a paper co-authored by two individuals is counted as one, and the contribution of each author to the paper count is 0.5 and 0.5, respectively.

The results of the FC statistics are shown in Figs. 2 and 3 . We can observe that within the defined scope, the number of papers has significantly increased since 2015. The top eight countries in terms of the number of published papers, from most to least, are the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, India, Germany, the Netherlands, and South Africa. If we only look at 2022, the top eight countries from most to least are China, India, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Spain, Germany, and Canada.

Statistical analysis of the top eight countries in terms of the number of papers published, and their publication years, using Fractional Count

Statistical analysis of the top eight countries in terms of the number of papers published in 2022, using Fractional Count

3.2.1 The number of articles interpreting climate change issues from the perspective of sustainable development goals

By observing the results presented in Fig. 2 , two pieces of information can be identified. The first piece of information is that, whether the data time is from 2015 to 2022 or only looking at 2022, China, India, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia are all in the top five. The reasons for this include several factors:

The first factor is economic influence. These countries are significant pillars of the global economy, and their policies and investment decisions have massive impacts on the global economy. For instance, China is the world's largest manufacturer and largest emitter of carbon dioxide, while the United States, as the world's largest economy, holds significant sway in driving global climate action.

The second factor is population size. India and China are the two most populous countries globally, and their decisions will have monumental impacts on global climate change. In countries with large populations, the need for sustainable development is particularly pressing [ 112 , 113 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 121 ].

The third factor is influence in science and technology. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia hold leadership positions in the field of science and technology, including research and development in climate science and environmental technologies. Their innovations and solutions can have significant impacts on the global climate change issue [ 115 , 116 , 117 ].

The fourth factor is policy and international leadership. These countries play critical roles in global policy and international affairs [ 122 , 123 , 124 , 125 ]. For instance, the United Kingdom was the host of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), and the United States also plays a leading role in driving the global climate agenda.

3.2.2 The increase and decrease of the number of papers published by each country

The second piece of information is that regardless of the country, the number of publications generally shows a growing trend from 2015 to 2021. The sharp increase in relevant literature published by China and India in 2022 indicates that addressing the challenges brought about by climate change and achieving sustainable development goals are issues of concern to these countries [ 126 , 127 , 128 ].

3.3 Number of publications on the relationship between CC and SDGs by field

As shown in Fig. 4 , the top eight fields and years in terms of the number of publications can be seen. We can observe that since 2015, there has been a significant increase in literature discussing the relationship between CC and SDGs. The field of Environmental Sciences & Ecology has consistently had the most publicated documents every year, followed by the field of Science & Technology—Other Topics.

Number of publications on the relationship between CC and SDGs by field

3.4 Tracking the research development trends on climate change issues from the framework of sustainable development goals every 2–3 years

The literature mining tool, Vosviewer, was used to perform co-occurrence word analysis on authors. Due to the small number of articles from 2015 to 2017, the clustering result is shown in Fig. 5 . The clustering results for 2018–2020 and 2021–2022 are shown in Figs. 6 and 7 respectively. The larger the clustered keyword, the more frequently it is mentioned by authors. Keywords of the same color indicate a higher degree of association, and are likely to discuss important topics.

Keyword relationship diagram for climate change and sustainable development goals from 2015 to 2017

Keyword relationship diagram for climate change and sustainable development goals from 2018 to 2020

Keyword relationship diagram for climate change and sustainable development goals from 2021 to 2022

3.4.1 Keywords and topics related to climate change and the implementation of sustainable development goals during 2015–2017

During 2015–2017, it is found that research keywords regarding climate change and the implementation of sustainable development goals mainly include "Ecosystem," "Climate change adaptation," "Disaster risk," "Reduction," "Public health," "Renewable energy," "Resilience," and "Water security." The topic discussed during this period is mainly "The impact of climate change on public health and its adaptation strategies." This topic covers the mutual influences of various aspects including environmental ecology, climate change, and public health, emphasizing on how to reduce disaster risks and improve public health levels through the protection and management of ecosystems to adapt to the challenges brought about by climate change. On the other hand, the development of renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and the establishment of water security strategies also contribute to coping with climate change [ 129 , 130 , 131 , 132 ].

3.4.2 Keywords and topics related to climate change and the implementation of sustainable development goals during 2018–2020

During 2018–2020, the research trend in discussing climate change and the implementation of sustainable development goals partially continued from the previous period, and the number of keywords increased. On the other hand, from a broader framework, the research trend shifted towards cross-disciplinary approaches to tackle and adapt to climate change issues and explored how to achieve this goal by protecting the environment and promoting sustainable development [ 133 ]. The most widely addressed topics represented by keywords of different colors include the following top four: "Efficient use and management of food supply to water resources", "Sustainable ecosystem management and land use under climate change", "Adaptation strategies and sustainable development strategies for agriculture under climate change", and "Development of renewable energy" [ 134 , 135 , 136 , 137 , 138 , 139 ].

3.4.3 Keywords and topics related to climate change and the implementation of sustainable development goals during 2021–2022

By 2021–2022, the research trend showed that some keywords regarding climate change and the implementation of sustainable development goals continued from the previous stage, and the number of keywords also increased. During this time period, 'renewable energy' (marked in red) has become the most emphasized keyword against the backdrop of hot advocacy topics such as 'Net Zero' and 'CBAM' (carbon border adjustment mechanism). It particularly emphasizes how, in the process of pursuing economic growth, we can reduce carbon dioxide emissions and achieve sustainable development by improving energy efficiency and using renewable energy [ 140 ].This also echoes the resolutions of COP26 and COP27, which call for an increased proportion of clean energy, including renewable and low-carbon energy sources, acceleration in the research and development, deployment, and dissemination of low-carbon technologies, and emphasis on the importance of natural carbon sinks [ 133 , 141 , 142 , 143 , 144 , 145 ].

Other important keywords are resilience (in orange), ecosystem services; life cycle assessment (in blue), Africa; agriculture (in dark green), policy; adaptation; education (in purple), and Agenda 2030; Paris Agreement; synergy; bibliometric analysis; remote sensing; desertification (in light green).

These keywords are all related to the clusters of climate change and sustainable development, encompassing topics such as the protection of ecosystem services [ 140 , 146 , 147 , 148 ], life cycle assessment, agriculture in Africa, policy; adaptation, education [ 149 , 150 , 151 , 152 , 153 , 154 ], the global sustainable development goals (Agenda 2030), the Paris Agreement, the synergistic effects of various policies [ 155 , 156 , 157 , 158 ], bibliometric analysis, remote sensing technology [ 159 , 160 , 161 ], and desertification [ 162 , 163 , 164 , 165 ].

4 Conclusion

This study, through bibliometric analysis tools CATAR and VOSviewer, presents multiple research findings. First, both tools indicate an increasing number of links between climate change and sustainable development goals in research across countries. There is a growing body of research and policy dedicated to finding and implementing strategies to solve climate change issues. These strategies are often linked to sustainable development goals, highlighting the intersection between climate action and sustainable development.

Secondly, through CATAR, this study identified 19 clusters intersecting with climate change and SDGs (as shown in Table 2 ), among which the top five clusters in terms of proportion are related to agricultural and food systems, water and soil resources, energy, economy, ecosystem, and sustainable management, accounting for 53% of the documents. On the other hand, Fig. 1 also shows that some clusters are highly related (same color). Combined with Table 2 for further explanation, the key topics in the green block include adaptation and mitigation strategies, integration of knowledge and collaboration, and the urban and community context. The important topics in the yellow block are corporate sustainable development and biodiversity investment (especially focusing on the ocean). The important topics in the blue block include urban planning, sustainable governance, due to land degradation and the increased frequency of extreme weather events (such as droughts and floods) damaging ecosystems.

Thirdly, whether the data period is from 2015 to 2022 or just in 2022, China, India, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia are the countries with the most research on the link between climate change and sustainable development goals. This is due to their economic influence, population size, influence in science and technology, and policy and international leadership. Specifically, in 2022, the number of publications in China and India grew at the fastest rate, while the growth trend in the UK and the US was slightly slower. Furthermore, Environmental Sciences & Ecology is the field with the most publications.

Fourthly, by observing Figs. 5 , 6 , and 7 , we can see the continuation and transformation of key topics in literature discussing the link between climate change and sustainable development goals. In the early period (2015–2017), the focus was on 'the impact of climate change on public health and its adaptation strategies'. By the mid-term (2018–2020), topics expanded to include 'efficient use and management of food supply to water resources', 'sustainable ecosystem management and sustainable land use under climate change', 'agricultural adaptation strategies and sustainable development strategies under climate change', and 'development of renewable energy'.

In the later period (2021–2022), under the context of popular initiatives like net zero and CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), there was increased emphasis on renewable energy, as well as protection of ecosystem services, life cycle assessment, food security, agriculture in Africa, sustainable management, synergies of various policies, remote sensing technology, and desertification among others. This shows an increasingly diversified range of important topics being discussed in relation to climate change and sustainable development goals.

The interconnections among the identified Clusters highlight the complex and interrelated nature of climate change and the 17 SDGs. Understanding these interconnections can help researchers, policymakers, and practitioners develop integrated and interdisciplinary approaches to address climate change and achieve the SDGs. For example, policies promoting agroforestry and sustainable agriculture can contribute to climate change mitigation, food security, and biodiversity conservation, thereby advancing multiple SDGs simultaneously.

Lastly, it is worth mentioning that the clusters that have not been part of the coalescence (as shown in the dashed circles in Fig. 1 ) do not imply that these topics are unimportant. On the contrary, these topics could potentially become the focus of emerging research in the future, serving as a reference for future researchers to conduct in-depth studies.

Data availability

The literature data used in this study were sourced from the Web of Science database.

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Hsieh, YL., Yeh, SC. The trends of major issues connecting climate change and the sustainable development goals. Discov Sustain 5 , 31 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00183-9

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A climate policy revolution : what the science of complexity reveals about saving our planet by Roland Kupers ISBN: 9780674246812 Publication Date: 2020 "In this book, Roland Kupers argues that the climate crisis is well suited to the bottom-up, rapid, and revolutionary change complexity science theorizes; he succinctly makes the case that complexity science promises policy solutions to address climate change."

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Hot Topics on Climate Change

On June 1, 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he will withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement. In spite of this announcement, the fact remains that a global climate change agreement under the United Nations was adopted in December 2015 in Paris. Prior to Trump’s presidency, countries—including the United States— had submitted their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) for the next one-and-a-half decades. These INDCs lower global greenhouse gas emissions compared to existing policies. However, when projected further into the future, the INDCs still suggest a median warming of roughly 2.5 to 3.0°C by 2100. This exceeds the “well-below 2°C” aim of the Paris Agreement, and year-2030 emissions are higher than what energy-economic analyses indicate would minimize overall costs in view of the necessary long-term reductions. Should the United States really depart the Paris Agreement, which can only technically happen on November 4, 2020 (at the earliest), the situation will only get worst.

Many hot topics have marked the year when it comes to climate change. And it is very likely —more than 90 percent probability—using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) technical language, that these topics, and many others, will continue to be increasingly hot in the United States and elsewhere during 2017 and beyond.

The Climate in 2016

Climate conditions were not that great in 2016. Last year the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the global surface temperature was record warm in 2015. This presses the record set the year before by 0.16°C, the largest margin ever by which one year has beaten another on the records (NOAA 2016). And climate trends continued to break marks in 2016, according to NASA (2016).

Only in the course of this year will we know for certain, but a preliminary November 2016 WMO report assessed that 2016 will likely be the hottest year on record, with global temperatures reaching even higher marks than the record-breaking temperatures of 2015 (WMO 2016). Global average temperature by the end of 2016 was already running 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, a number perilously close to the 1.5°C target aim of the Paris climate agreement of December 2015.

On other fronts, while global temperatures warmed, here in the United States the political climate also began to heat up. Exactly a month and a half after the landmark Paris Agreement officially took effect on November 4, 2016—when one hundred nations, accounting for 69 percent of global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, had formally joined the treaty (UNFCCC 2016)—Mr. Donald John Trump was formally elected by the United States Electoral College on December 19, 2016 as the country´s 45th President.

The hot topic here is that, on various recent occasions, President Trump expressed his skepticism about human-induced climate change. This included a tweet expressing a view that “the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive,” and various other public manifestations. Trump stated that with his “America First Energy Plan” he would revert all of President Obama´s policies on climate change, which would include cancelling the country’s participation in the Paris Agreement, ending U.S. funding of the United Nations climate change programs, and abandoning the Clean Power Plan—in order to bring back the coal industry.

Mr. Trump’s leadership choices for the Department of Energy, the Department of Interior and the Environmental Protection Agency—the three most important, energy-policy-related Federal State institutions—have either denied or strongly challenged the science of climate change. In fact, at the same time that many world leaders are creating dedicated policies to support climate change mitigation and supporting renewable energy sources in order to open new economic sectors, some world leaders perceive this movement as a threat to existing, more conservative, economic forces, like the ones associated with the fossil-fuel industry (Nature 2016b). And indeed, on June 1, 2017, when President Trump proclaimed that the United States was quitting the Paris Climate Agreement, he very much pleased some of the forces within his administration that goaded him to do so.

The Paris Agreement: The Starting Point of a Three-Year Process

Under the December 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement, more than 190 nations committed to take ambitious action 1) to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, 2) to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C, and 3) to achieve net zero emissions in the second half of this century (UNFCCC 2016a). This means that, from emissions of roughly 50 GtCO2eq/yr today, in the second half this century these emissions will not only need to be zeroed completely, but turned negative.

This will only be possible with massive carbon sequestration, which is the process of removing carbon from the atmosphere and depositing it in a reservoir. The candidate sectors for this process are the land use sector, with the afforestation and reforestation of large areas of the globe, and the power sector, with the use of carbon dioxide removal technologies, such as fossil-fuel-based and biomass-based power plants with carbon capture and sequestration facilities.

Already earlier, in preparation of the agreement, countries had submitted their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) for the agreed 2025 to 2030 period, promising to lower global GHG emissions compared to already existing policies. These INDCs outline national plans to address climate change after 2020. They address a range of issues of which targets and actions for mitigating GHG emissions are a core component.

The Paris Agreement is a general document, with a framework and overarching goals for global climate action. It is the beginning of a longer process. Some of its loose ends were tied up during the 22nd Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 22) in Marrakech in November of 2016 (UNFCCC 2016b)—which served as the first meeting of the governing body of the Agreement. But ironing out Paris Agreement details will take some time. Countries participating in COP 22 aim to have the process established by 2018, with a review of progress planned for this same year. But the only concrete outcomes of COP 22 were procedural in nature, with parties to the Convention adopting work plans for further discussions.

However, the real result of the Paris Agreement and of COP 22 (and their long-term success) will depend on assessments of whether or not the already committed pledges, and the ones to come, will have the expected effect on reducing aggregate GHG emissions. Success will mean that the world achieved the temperature objective of holding global warming to well below 2°C and is continuing to “pursue efforts“ to limit it to 1.5°C.

Temperature Increase as a Consequence of the INDCs

It should come as no surprise that limiting global warming to any level implies that the total amount of GHG emissions that can ever be emitted into the atmosphere is finite, given the technical and economic limitations of carbon sequestration possibilities to compensate for that. For example, for a higher than 66 percent chance (meaning “likely”) of limiting global warming to below the internationally agreed temperature limit of 2°C, carbon budget estimates range around 590 to1,240 Gt CO2 from 2015 onward (Rogelj et al 2016b).

According to IPCC language, a statement that an outcome is “likely” means that the probability of this outcome can range from ≥66 percent (fuzzy boundaries implied) to 100 percent probability. This implies that all alternative outcomes are “unlikely” (0 to 33 percent probability). To put this carbon-budged range in perspective, given current annual emissions of about 40 Gt CO2 globally, this means that the world has a budget of no more than 15 to 60 years of CO2 emissions left at the level of today´s emissions to limiting global warming to 2°C. Only the successful deployment of carbon sequestration practices and technologies could extend this time frame.

More specifically, for keeping warming to below 2°C, some two thirds of the total CO2 budget have already been emitted, with an urgent need for global CO2 emissions to start to decline, so as not to foreclose the possibility of holding warming to below 2°C. The Paris Agreement acknowledges both of these insights and aims, on the one hand, to reach global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible and, on the other hand, to achieve “a balance” between anthropogenic emissions and removals of GHGs in the second half of this century (UNFCCC 2016a).

The purpose of this digest is to assess the extent to which the proposed INDCs impact global GHG emissions by 2030, and explore the consistency of these reductions with the “well below 2°C” objective of the Paris Agreement. This analysis draws heavily on a previous published work (Rogelj et al 2016a), in which I was one of the authors, and where we updated and expanded INDC modelling results that were collected in the framework of the 2015 UNEP Emissions Gap Report (UNEP 2015), in which I was also one of the authors.

The number of INDCs considered by the studies we assessed ranged from the initial 118 INDCs submitted by October 1, 2015 to the final 160 INDCs from the different parties submitted by December 12, 2015 (Rogelj et al 2016a). These INDCs cover emissions from Parties to the Convention responsible for roughly 85 to 88 percent to more than 96 percent of global emissions in 2012. Furthermore, we look at projections of global-mean temperature increase over the twenty-first century that would be consistent with the INDCs, and at post-2030 implications of the INDCs for limiting warming to no more than 2°C.

We used four scenario groups to frame the implications of the INDCs for global GHGs in 2030: 1) no-policy baseline scenarios, 2) current-policy scenarios, 3) INDC scenarios, and 3) least-cost 2°C scenarios:

No-policy baseline scenarios are emissions projections that assume that no new climate policies have been put into place from 2005 onwards. In this analysis, the no-policy baseline scenarios are selected from the scenario database that accompanied the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (available at: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/AR5DB/ ) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) By design, these no-policy baseline scenarios exclude climate policies, but may include other policies that can influence emissions and are implemented for other reasons, like some energy efficiency or energy security policies.
Current-policy scenarios consider the most recent estimates of global emissions and take into account implemented policies. These scenarios were drawn from three global INDC analyses (see Rogelj et al 2016a for more details). Not all countries and sectors are covered by these official and independent country-specific data sources. If this is the case, the median estimate of the three global studies for the ‘current-policy baseline’ for that country or sector is assumed.
INDC scenarios are at the core of this analysis. They project how global GHG emissions would evolve under the INDCs. These projections are based on the eight global INDC analyses (see Rogelj et al 2016a for more details), which in their calculations use official estimates from the countries themselves.
2°C scenarios are idealized global scenarios which are consistent with limiting warming to well below 2°C, keeping open the option of strengthening the global temperature target to 1.5°C. These scenarios are based on a subset of scenarios from the IPCC AR5 Scenario Database that meet the following criteria: they have a greater than 66 per cent chance of keeping warming to below 2°C by 2100; until 2020, they assume that the actions countries pledged earlier under the UNFCCC Cancun Accord are fully implemented; and after 2020, they distribute emission reductions across regions, gases and sectors in such a way that the total discounted costs of the necessary global reductions are minimised, often referred to as least-cost or cost-optimal trajectories.

All scenarios are here expressed in terms of billion tons of global annual CO2 equivalent emissions (Gt CO2e/yr), with. CO2 equivalence of other GHGs calculated by means of 100-year global warming potentials (GWP-100) (Rogelj et al 2016a).

INDC Aggregate Emissions Impact

Different countries report their INDCs differently. Some provide ranges instead of a single number of emissions reductions. Many INDCs lack necessary details, including clarity on sectors and gases covered, on the base year or a reference from which reductions would be measured, or accounting practices related to land use and the use of specific market mechanisms. Also, some of the actions listed in INDCs are, implicitly or explicitly, conditional on other factors, like the availability of financial or technological support. The interpretation of all these factors influences the range of possible outcomes. So, conditional and unconditional INDC scenarios have to be distinguished from each other, although some argue that, implicitly, all INDCs are conditional, with “some being more conditional than others.” This is because, even if a country submits an unconditional INDC, later in time facts out of a country’s control may change its future priorities. Even so, we will keep here a distinction between conditional and unconditional INDCs.

Unconditionally, the INDCs are expected to result in global GHG emissions of about 55 (52 to 57; 10 to 90 percent range) billion tons of annual CO2 equivalent emissions (Gt CO2e/yr; see four scenerio groups above and Figure 1 below) in 2030. This is a reduction of around 9 (7 to 13) Gt CO2e/yr by 2030 relative to the median no-policy baseline scenario estimate and around 4 (2 to 8) Gt CO2e/yr relative to the median current-policy scenario estimate. To have these numbers in context, global GHG emissions in 2010 are estimated at about 48 (46 to 50) Gt CO2e/yr (UNEP 2015), and our median no-policy baseline estimate reaches about 65 Gt CO2e/yr by 2030.

Figure 1: Global greenhouse gas emissions as implied by submitted INDCs compared to no-policy baseline, current-policy, and 2°C scenarios. White lines show the median of each respective range. The white dashed line shows the median estimate of what the INDCs would deliver if all conditionalities are met. To avoid clutter, the 20th and 80th percentile ranges are shown for the no-policy baseline and 2°C scenarios. For current-policy and the INDC scenarios, the minimum-maximum and central 80th percentile range across all assessed studies are given. Each different symbol-colour combination represents one study. Dashed brown lines connect data points for each study.

A number of countries place conditions on all or part of their INDC. Some included a range of reduction targets in their INDC and attached conditions to the implementation of the more ambitious end. Others indicate that their entire INDC is conditional. Of the INDCs submitted, roughly half came with both conditional and unconditional components, a third was conditional only, and the rest did not make any distinction.

For a number of countries, the targets included in their INDC submission suggest achieving emission levels above the estimated no-policy baseline or their current-policy scenario. These countries are thus expected to overachieve their INDC climate targets by default.

Uncertainties in the Estimates and Optimal 2°C Pathways

There is a wide range of possible estimates of future emissions under nominally similar scenarios. These differences are a result of a number of factors, including modeling methods, input data, and assumptions regarding country intent. In fact, four confounding factors in this respect can be identified: 1) global and national sectors coverage, 2) uncertainties in projections, 3) land-use emissions, and 4) historical emissions and metrics.

Once the GHG implications of the INDCs by 2030 are quantified, the question that remains is whether these levels are consistent with the Paris Agreement’s aim of holding warming to well below 2°C. The Paris Agreement’s aim of reaching net-zero GHG emissions in the second half of the century goes even further. For some non-CO2 emissions, only limited mitigation options have been identified. Therefore, net-zero CO2 emissions are always achieved before achieving net-zero GHG emissions. The Scenario Database that accompanied the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang (IPCC) is used to explore cost-optimal 2°C pathways from 2020 onward (four scenerios).

The comparison of these cost-optimal 2°C scenarios to the INDC projections shows a large discrepancy (Fig. 1). The median cost-optimal path towards keeping warming to below 2°C (starting reductions in 2020) and the emissions currently implied by the unconditional INDCs differ by about 14 (10–16) Gt CO2e/yr in 2030. Even if the conditions that are linked to some INDCs are met, this difference remains of the order of 11 Gt CO2e/yr. As they stand now, the INDCs clearly do not lead the world to a pathway towards limiting warming to well below 2°C.

Implications of INDCs Post 2030

A large share of the potential warming until 2100 is determined not just by the INDCs until 2025 or 2030, but also by what happens afterwards. Different approaches can be followed to extend INDCs into the future, which basically assume that climate action stops, continues, or accelerates. Stopping action is often modelled by assuming that emissions return to a no-climate-policy trajectory after 2030; continuing action by assuming that the level of post-2030 action is similar to pre-2030 action on the basis of a metric of choice; and accelerating action by post-2030 action that goes beyond such a level. Because of the path-dependence and inertia of the global energy system, the INDCs have a critical role in preparing what can come afterwards.

Each approach may lead to different global temperature outcomes, even when starting from the same INDC assessment for 2025 to 2030. As a conservative interpretation of the Paris Agreement, the assumption made here is that climate action continues after 2030 at a level of ambition that is similar to that of the INDCs. The assumption that climate action will continue or accelerate over time is supported by the Agreement’s requirement that the successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) of each country must represent a progression beyond the earlier contributions, and reflect the highest possible ambition of that country.

Under these assumptions of continued climate action, the 2030 unconditional-INDC emission range is roughly consistent with a median warming relative to pre-industrial levels of 2.6 to 3.1°C (median, 2.9°C; full scenario projection uncertainty, 2.2 to 3.5°C; Table 1), with warming continuing its increase afterwards. This is an improvement on the current-policy and no-policy baseline scenarios, whose median projections suggest about 3.2°C and more than 4°C of temperature rise by 2100, respectively.

The successful implementation of all conditional INDCs would decrease the median estimate by an additional 0.2°C, but keeps the outcome far from the targets the Paris Agreement is aiming for, with well-below 2°C and 1.5°C of warming. Moreover, all above-mentioned values represent median projections coming out of emission scenarios, which in themselves are a function of uncertain assumptions with respect to population growth (more growth, more emissions), economic growth (here too, more growth, more emissions) and even rates of technological improvements (more improvements, less emissions).

Because the climate response to GHG emissions remains uncertain, it is also possible that substantially higher temperatures will materialize with compelling likelihoods (Table 1). For example, at the 66th percentile level, warming under the unconditional INDCs is projected to be about 0.3 °C higher (3.2°C, with a range of 2.9 to 3.4°C). Finally, the INDC cases that are discussed here will exceed the available carbon budget for keeping warming to below 2°C by 2030 with 66 percent probability (that is, roughly 750 to 800 Gt CO2e implied emissions under the INDCs during the 2011 to 2030 period compared to the 750 to 1,400 Gt CO2e available).

Table 1: Estimates of global temperature rise for INDC and other scenarios categories. For each scenario, temperature values at the 50 percent, 66 percent and 90 percent probability levels are provided for the median emission estimates, as well as the 10th–90th-percentile range of emissions estimates (in parentheses) and the same estimates when also including scenario projection uncertainty (in brackets). Temperature increases are relative to pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), and are derived from simulations with a probabilistic set-up with the simple model MAGICC (see Rogelj et al 2016a for more details).

The question thus arises whether global temperature rise can be kept to well below 2°C with accelerated action after 2030. Global scenarios that aim to keep warming to below 2°C and that achieve this objective from 2030 GHG emissions similar to those from the INDC range have been assessed in detail by recent large-scale model-comparison projects (Clarke et al 2014 and Riahi et al 2015), but show that even with accelerated action after 2030 options to keep warming to well below 2°C from current INDCs are severely limited, particularly if some key mitigation technologies, such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) or CCS with biomass energy (BECCS), for example, do not scale up as anticipated.

Scenarios in which global warming is successfully contained show rapidly declining emissions after 2030, with global CO2 emissions from energy- and industry-related sources reaching net-zero levels between 2060 and 2080. The global economy is thus assumed to fully decarbonize in the time span of three to five decades and from 2030 levels that are higher than today’s. Furthermore, about two-thirds of these scenarios achieve a balance of global GHG emissions between 2080 and 2100. Because some non-CO2 emissions are virtually impossible to eliminate entirely (for example those from specific agricultural or animal agricultural sources), reaching such a balance will involve net-negative CO2 emissions at a global scale to compensate for any residual non-CO2 emissions, limiting global-average temperatures increase over time.

Exploring futures in which a global balance of GHG emissions can be achieved in the second half of this century with technically feasible and societally acceptable technologies represents a major research challenge emerging from the Paris Agreement. This challenge is particularly relevant to policy, because limiting emissions in 2030 does not only increase the chances of attaining the 2°C target, but also reduces the need to rely on unproven, potentially risky or controversial technologies in the future (Clark et al 2014 and Riahi et al 2015).

Final Considerations

The world has made its decision on Climate Change, despite some recent setbacks here and there. As a recent Editorial of the New York Times put it very clearly, “It´s hard to know how Mr. Trump will change climate policy, but it is almost certain that he won’t advance it” (The New York Times 2016). And indeed, if it is true that the United States will leave the Paris Agreement, for sure it will lose the ability to pressure other countries, including the large emerging economies like Brazil, China and India, to do more.

On the global front, as discussed here, actions may still be too slow and/or too weak, but we can be optimistic and say that, in spite of some hurdles on the way, momentum is building. Covering more than 90 percent of the world’s GHG emissions with climate plans in the form of INDCs was a historic achievement. Now that the Paris Agreement came into force, and that the original INDCs are not simply “Intended” anymore (so, they are no longer INDCs but now Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), it will continue with NDCs, subject to strong transparency of individual contributions and a global stock-take, in the light of equity and science, every five years.

However, the optimism accompanying this process has to be carefully balanced against the important challenges that current INDCs imply for post-2030 emissions reductions. Even starting now limiting warming to no more than 2°C relative to preindustrial levels constitutes an enormous societal challenge. While the contributions open a new era for climate policy under the Paris agreement, they also represent both an invitation and call, if not a need, for further action. Furthering deeper reductions in the coming decade, as well as preparing for a global transformation until mid-century are critical. In absence of incrementally stronger policy signals over the coming five years to a decade, the likelihood that our society will be able to meet the challenge of limiting warming to below 2°C with less than even odds will become extremely small.

Therefore, let us put this clear: Should the United States’ new administration, indeed step back from the previous administration commitment, two possibilities could arise. First, other major emitting nations could also follow suit, turning the Paris Agreement an absolutely irrelevant effort of international negotiation, driving the planet towards unknown climate consequences. Second, because the United States is the second largest GHG emitter, with some 15 percent of world´s total emissions, any climate-change global agreement to succeed would probably also require to have the United States on board, something that is now under a question mark. Therefore, the latter in itself is already a problem even if the former does not materialize. Interestingly enough, the very structure of the Paris Agreement, like the Kyoto Protocol, was designed largely to United States specifications, and also an answer to United States’ prayers.

The problem is that, in fact, political upsets could stall coordinated international mitigation action, with long-term consequences, eventually even rendering the 2°C target unachievable (Sanderson et at 2016). Interesting enough, although the governments of the world have requested the IPCC to assess, through a Special Report due in 2018 (IPCC 2016), the impacts of 1.5°C of warming, as well as ways to prevent temperatures from rising higher, many scientists have practically already written off the chances of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (Rogelj et al 2016b and Luderer et al 2016).

As discussed before, the Paris Agreement commits governments to keeping average global surface temperatures to between 1.5°C and 2°C above the preindustrial level, but warming has already passed the 1°C mark (WMO 2016). If the 2°C goal is already seen implausible by some, given a lack of more effective actions and current politics, let alone the even more ambitions 1.5°C target (Nature 2016a), let us hope that the economies of the world will be able to do their homework on time. We cannot travel the last mile with quick fixes, which would be too dependent on extremely risky and uncertain technologies, such as geoengineering, as some have begun to consider (Hubert et al 2016). Unfortunately, the recent move of the current United States Administration with respect to the Paris Agreement is not going to be of much help in that respect.

T his digest has been inspired by from Rogelj et al (2016a), of which Roberto Schaeffer is one of the authors. The author wishes to acknowledge extremely helpful comments from a reviewer of an earlier draft. Any remaining errors are the responsibility of the author alone.

Roberto Schaeffer

Clarke, L. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds O. Edenhofer et al.) Ch. 6, 413-510 (Cambridge University Press, 2014). Hubert, AM., Kruger, T. Rayner, S. Code of conduct for geoengineering. Nature 537, 488 (2016). IPCC. Scoping Meeting for the IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. Geneva, Switzerland, 15-16 August. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/ , accessed on 30 December (2016). Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., Delsa, L., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Emmerling, J., Krey, V., McCollum, D. L., Pachauri, S., Riahi, K., Saveyn, B., Tavoni, M., Vrontisi, Z., van Vuuren, D. P., Arent, D., Arvesen, A., Fujimori, S., Iyer, G. Keppo, I., Kermeli, K., Mima, S., Ó Broin, E., Pietzcker, R. C., Sano, F., Scholz, Y., van Ruijven, B. & Wilson, C. Deep decarbonisation towards 1.5 °C – 2 °C stabilisation. Policy findings from the ADVANCE project (first edition, 2016). NASA. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/climate-trends-continue-to-bre… , accessed on 20 December (2016). Nature. Climate ambition. Nature 537, 585-586, 29 September (2016a). Nature. Let reason prevail. Nature 538, 289, 20 October (2016b). NOAA. http://www.noaa.gov/climate , accessed on 20 December (2016). Riahi, K. et al. Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, Part A, 8-23, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016 (2015). Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Hohne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K. & Meinshausen, M. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 631-639, doi:10.1038/nature18307 (2016a). Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gillett, N. P., van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Allen, M. & Knutti, R. Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled. Nature Climate Change 6, 245-252-, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2868 (2016b). Sanderson, B. M. & Knutti, R. Delays in US mitigation could rulled out Paris targets. Nature Climate Change, advance publication, published online on 26 December, http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3193.html , accessed on 28 December (2016). The New York Times. States Will Lead on Climate Change in the Trump Era. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/26/opinion/states-will-lead-on-climate-ch… , accessed on 26 December (2016). UNEP. The Emissions Gap Report 2015. 98 (UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya, 2015). UNFCCC. Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Report No. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/109r01.pdf , accessed on 20 December (2016a). UNFCCC. http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/session/9676.php , assessed on 27 December (2016b). WMO. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/provisional-wmo-statement-… , accessed on 20 December (2016).

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A broad range of projects is offered by academic staff in the Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC) at the University of New South Wales. If you are interested in pursuing a PhD, Masters or Honours in climate science, please contact the academic whose areas of research interest you.

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Earth system science, with special emphasis on abrupt climate change, as well as feedbacks and thresholds in the climate system. The role of oceans in climate change/variability; earth system modelling (ocean, land, atmosphere, cryosphere, biosphere) addressing past and future climate change. Geophysical fluid dynamics, biogeochemistry, palaeoproxy data-model comparison, isotope modelling.

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Impact of changes in oceanic circulation on climate and the carbon cycle, with a particular focus on Southern Ocean dynamics.

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Land surface processes, global and regional modelling, projections of future mean and extreme climate, vegetation dynamics, carbon cycle, abrupt climate change, probabilistic projections of climate change.

Associate Professor Alex Sen Gupta

The effects of climate change and variability on ocean circulation, its physical characteristic and how this affects marine species; marine heat waves; IPCC model evaluation and climate projections; the effect of climate variability (e.g. ENSO, SAM, IOD) on regional climate variability and change.

Professor Steve Sherwood

Physical processes controlling Earth’s climate sensitivity, clouds, water vapour, precipitation, and interactions across scales. Modelling and analysis of global satellite and in-situ observations. Identifying and improving flaws in current climate models.

Dr Tim Raupach

Severe storms and climate change, especially hailstorms and their changes. Atmospheric modelling and numerical weather simulation, regional climate modelling, atmospheric remote sensing, precipitation microstructure, climate change impacts and risks.

Associate Professor Andréa Taschetto

Rainfall variability and atmospheric teleconnections associated with large-scale climate drivers, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole.

You might also like to browse the topics of researchers associated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

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U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report: 1990-2014 EPA develops an annual report called the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (Inventory). This report tracks total annual U.S. emissions and removals by source, economic sector, and greenhouse gas going back to 1990. EPA uses national energy data, data on national agricultural activities, and other national statistics to provide a comprehensive accounting of total greenhouse gas emissions for all man-made sources in the United States.
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The Politics of Climate

Polarized views about climate issues stretch from the causes and cures for climate change to trust in climate scientists and their research. but most americans support a role for scientists in climate policy, and there is bipartisan support for expanding solar, wind energy.

Political fissures on climate issues extend far beyond beliefs about whether climate change is occurring and whether humans are playing a role, according to a new, in-depth survey by Pew Research Center. These divisions reach across every dimension of the climate debate, down to people’s basic trust in the motivations that drive climate scientists to conduct their research.

Specifically, the survey finds wide political divides in views of the potential for devastation to the Earth’s ecosystems and what might be done to address any climate impacts. There are also major divides in the way partisans interpret the current scientific discussion over climate, with the political left and right having vastly divergent perceptions of modern scientific consensus, differing levels of trust in the information they get from professional researchers, and different views as to whether it is the quest for knowledge or the quest for professional advancement that drives climate scientists in their work.

At the same time, political differences are not the exclusive drivers of people’s views about climate issues. People’s level of concern about the issue also matters. The 36% of Americans who are more personally concerned about the issue of global climate change, whether they are Republican or Democrat, are much more likely to see climate science as settled, to believe that humans are playing a role in causing the Earth to warm, and to put great faith in climate scientists.

When it comes to party divides, the biggest gaps on climate policy and climate science are between those at the ends of the political spectrum. Across the board, from possible causes to who should be the one to sort this all out, liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans see climate-related matters through vastly different lenses. Liberal Democrats place more faith in the work of climate scientists (55% say climate research reflects the best available evidence most of the time) and their understanding of the phenomenon (68% say climate scientists understand very well whether or not climate change is occurring). Perhaps it follows, then, that liberal Democrats are much more inclined to believe a wide variety of environmental catastrophes are potentially headed our way, and that both policy and individual actions can be effective in heading some of these off. Even the Republicans who believe the Earth is warming are much less likely than Democrats to expect severe harms to the Earth’s ecosystem and to believe that any of six individual and policy actions asked about can make a big difference in addressing climate change. And, a majority of conservative Republicans believe that each of the six actions to address climate change can make no more than a small difference.

This survey extensively explores how peoples’ divergent views over climate issues tie with people’s views about climate scientists and their work. Democrats are especially likely to see scientists and their research in a positive light. Republicans are considerably more skeptical of climate scientists’ information, understanding and research findings on climate matters. A few examples:

Seven-in-ten liberal Democrats (70%) trust climate scientists a lot to give full and accurate information about the causes of climate change, compared with just 15% of conservative Republicans.
Some 54% of liberal Democrats say climate scientists understand the causes of climate change very well. This compares with only 11% among conservative Republicans and 19% among moderate/liberal Republicans.
Liberal Democrats, more than any other party/ideology group, perceive widespread consensus among climate scientists about the causes of warming. Only 16% of conservative Republicans say almost all scientists agree on this, compared with 55% of liberal Democrats.
The credibility of climate research is also closely tied with Americans’ political views. Some 55% of liberal Democrats say climate research reflects the best available evidence most of the time, 39% say some of the time. By contrast, 9% of conservative Republicans say this occurs most of the time, 54% say it occurs some of the time.
On the flip side, conservative Republicans are more inclined to say climate research findings are influenced by scientists’ desire to advance their careers (57%) or their own political leanings (54%) most of the time. Small minorities of liberal Democrats say either influence occurs most of the time (16% and 11%, respectively).

While liberal Democrats give high marks to climate scientists’ understanding of whether climate change is occurring, even among this group, fewer give strongly positive ratings when it comes to scientists’ understanding about ways to address climate change. Minorities of all political groups say climate scientists understand how to address climate change “very well.”

Despite some skepticism about climate scientists and their motives, majorities of Americans among all party/ideology groups say climate scientists should have at least a minor role in policy decisions about climate issues. More than three-quarters of Democrats and most Republicans (69% among moderate or liberal Republicans and 48% of conservative Republicans) say climate scientists should have a major role in policy decisions related to the climate. Few in either party say climate scientists should have no role in policy decisions.

To the extent there are political differences among Americans on these issues, those variances are largely concentrated when it comes to their views about climate scientists, per se, rather than scientists, generally. Majorities of all political groups report a fair amount of confidence in scientists, overall, to act in the public interest. And to the extent that Republicans are personally concerned about climate issues, they tend to hold more positive views about climate research.

Liberal Democrats are especially inclined to believe harms from climate change are likely and that both policy and individual actions can be effective in addressing climate change. Among the political divides over which actions could make a difference in addressing climate change:

Power plant emission restrictions − 76% of liberal Democrats say this can make a big difference, while 29% of conservative Republicans say the same, a difference of 47-percentage points.
An international agreement to limit carbon emissions − 71% of liberal Democrats and 27% of conservative Republicans say this can make a big difference, a gap of 44-percentage points.
Tougher fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks − 67% of liberal Democrats and 27% of conservative Republicans say this can make a big difference, a 40-percentage-point divide.
Corporate tax incentives to encourage businesses to reduce the “carbon footprint” from their activities − 67% of liberal Democrats say this can make a big difference, while 23% of conservative Republicans agree for a difference of 44 percentage points.
More people driving hybrid and electric vehicles − 56% of liberal Democrats say this can make a big difference, while 23% of conservative Republicans do, a difference of 33-percentage points.
People’s individual efforts to reduce their “carbon footprints” as they go about daily life − 52% of liberal Democrats say this can make a big difference compared with 21% of conservative Republicans, a difference of 31 percentage points.

Across all of these possible actions to reduce climate change, moderate/liberal Republicans and moderate/conservative Democrats fall in the middle between those on the ideological ends of either party.

The stakes in climate debates seem particularly high to liberal Democrats because they are especially likely to believe that climate change will bring harms to the environment. Among this group, about six-in-ten say climate change will very likely bring more droughts, storms that are more severe, harm to animals and to plant life, and damage to shorelines from rising sea levels. By contrast, no more than about two-in-ten conservative Republicans consider any of these potential harms to be “very likely”; about half say each is either “not too” or “not at all” likely to occur.

One thing that doesn’t strongly influence opinion on climate issues, perhaps surprisingly, is one’s level of general scientific literacy. According to the survey, the effects of having higher, medium or lower scores on a nine-item index of science knowledge tend to be modest and are only sometimes related to people’s views about climate change and climate scientists, especially in comparison with party, ideology and concern about the issue. But, the role of science knowledge in people’s beliefs about climate matters is varied and where a relationship occurs, it is complex. To the extent that science knowledge influences people’s judgments related to climate change and trust in climate scientists, it does so among Democrats, but not Republicans. For example, Democrats with high science knowledge are especially likely to believe the Earth is warming due to human activity, to see scientists as having a firm understanding of climate change, and to trust climate scientists’ information about the causes of climate change. But Republicans with higher science knowledge are no more or less likely to hold these beliefs. Thus, people’s political orientations also tend to influence how knowledge about science affects their judgments and beliefs about climate matters and their trust in climate scientists.

These are some of the principle findings from a new Pew Research Center survey. Most of the findings in this report are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,534 U.S. adults conducted May 10-June 6, 2016. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Other key findings:

The climate-engaged public

Some 36% of Americans are deeply concerned about climate issues, saying they personally care a great deal about the issue of global climate change. This group is composed primarily of Democrats (72%), but roughly a quarter (24%) is Republican. Some 55% are women, making this group slightly more female than the population as a whole. But, they come from a range of age and education groups and from all regions of the country.

There are wide differences in beliefs about climate issues and climate scientists between this more concerned public and other Americans, among both Democrats and Republicans alike. Indeed, people’s expressions of care are strongly correlated with their views, separate and apart from their partisan and ideological affiliations.

Most, but not all, among those with more personal concern about climate issues say the Earth’s warming is due to human activity. They are largely pessimistic about climate change, saying it will bring a range of harms to the Earth’s ecosystems. At the same time, this more concerned public is quite optimistic about efforts to address climate change. Majorities among this group say that each of six different personal and policy actions asked about can be effective in addressing climate change.

Further, those with deep concerns about climate issues are much more inclined to hold climate scientists and their work in positive regard. This group is more likely than others to see scientists as understanding climate issues. Two-thirds (67%) of this more climate-engaged public trusts climate scientists a lot to provide full and accurate information about the causes of climate change; this compares with 33% of those who care some and 9% of those with little concern about the issue of climate change. About half of those with deep personal concerns about this issue (51%) say climate researchers’ findings are influenced by the best available evidence “most of the time.” By the same token, those deeply concerned about climate issues are less inclined to think climate research is often influenced by considerations other than the evidence, such as scientists’ career interests or political leanings.

People’s views about climate scientists, as well as their beliefs about the likely effects of climate change and effective ways to address it, are explained especially by their political orientation and their personal concerns with the issue of climate change. There are no consistent differences or only modest differences in people’s views about these issues by other factors including gender, age, education and people’s general knowledge of science topics.

Media coverage on climate

Americans are closely divided in their view of the news media’s coverage of climate change. Some 47% of U.S. adults say the media does a good job covering global climate change, while 51% say they do a bad job. A 58% majority of people following climate news very closely say the media do a good job, however. Conservative Republicans stand out as more negative in their overall views about climate change news coverage.

Public ratings of the media may be linked to views about the mix of news coverage. In all, 35% of Americans say the media exaggerates the threat from climate change, a roughly similar share (42%) says the media does not take the threat seriously enough; two-in-ten (20%) say the media are about right in their reporting. People’s views on this are strongly linked with political divides; 72% of conservative Republicans say the media exaggerates the threat of climate change, while 64% of liberal Democrats say the media does not take the threat of climate change seriously enough.

Confidence in scientists and other groups to act in the public interest

Though the survey finds that climate scientists are viewed with skepticism by relatively large shares of Americans, scientists overall – and in particular, medical scientists – are viewed as relatively trustworthy by the general public. Asked about a wide range of leaders and institutions, the military, medical scientists, and scientists in general received the most votes of confidence when it comes to acting in the best interests of the public.

On the flip side, majorities of the public have little confidence in the news media, business leaders and elected officials. Public confidence in K-12 school leaders and religious leaders to act in the public’s best interest falls in the middle.

Fully 79% of Americans express a great deal (33%) or a fair amount (46%) of confidence in the military to act in the best interests of the public. The relatively high regard for the military compared with other institutions is consistent with a 2013 Pew Research Center survey , which found 78% of the public saying the military contributes “a lot” to “society’s well-being.”

Most Americans also have at least a fair amount of confidence in medical scientists and scientists to act in the best interest of the public. Some 84% of U.S. adults express confidence in medical scientists; 24% say they have a great deal of confidence and six-in-ten (60%) have a fair amount of confidence in medical scientists to act in the public’s best interests. Three-quarters of Americans (76%) have either a great deal (21%) or a fair amount of confidence (55%) in scientists, generally, to act in the public interest. Confidence in either group is about the same or only modestly different across party and ideological groups.

Confidence in the news media, business leaders and elected officials is considerably lower; public views about school and religious leaders fall in the middle.

People in both political parties express deep distrust of elected officials, in keeping with previous Pew Research Center studies showing near record low trust in government. Just 3% of Americans say they have a “great deal” of trust in elected officials to act in the best interests of the public; lower than any of the seven groups rated. Some 72% of Americans report not too much or no confidence in elected officials to act in the public interest.

Strong bipartisan support for expanding solar, wind energy production

One spot of unity in an otherwise divided environmental policy landscape is that the vast majority of Americans support the concept of expanding both solar and wind power. The public is more closely divided when it comes to expanding fossil fuel energies such as coal mining, offshore oil and gas drilling, and hydraulic fracturing for oil and natural gas. While there are substantial party and ideological divides over increasing fossil fuel and nuclear energy sources, strong majorities of all political groups support more solar and wind production.

These patterns are broadly consistent with past Center findings that climate change and fossil fuel energy issues are strongly linked with party and ideology, but political divisions have a much more modest or no relationship with public attitudes on a host of other science-related topics.

Boom for home solar ahead?

Some 41% of Americans say they have given serious consideration to installing solar panels at home (including 4% who report they have already done so). Their reasons include both cost savings and help for the environment. A similar share of homeowners (44%) have either installed solar panels (4%) or given serious thought to doing so (40%). Western residents and younger adults (ages 18 to 49) are especially likely to say they have considered, or already installed, solar panels at home. Two-thirds of homeowners in the West have considered or installed solar panels, compared with 35% of homeowners in the South, 40% in the Midwest and 38% in the Northeast.

One-in-five Americans aim for everyday environmentalism; their political and climate change beliefs mirror the U.S. population

While most Americans espouse some concern for the environment, a much smaller share says they always try to live in ways that help the environment. Three-quarters of Americans (75%) say they are “particularly concerned about helping the environment” as they go about daily living. But just two-in-ten (20%) describe themselves as someone who makes an effort to live in ways that protect the environment “all the time.” A majority (63%) say they sometimes do and just 17% do not do at all or not too often.

Though more among this group of “everyday environmentalists” have a deep concern about climate issues, their beliefs about the causes of climate change closely match those of the public as a whole. Further, this group of environmentally conscious Americans is comprised of both Republicans (41%) and Democrats (53%) in close proportion to that found in the population as a whole.

How different are the actual behaviors of Americans who live out their concerns for the environment all the time from the rest of the public? When it comes to the list of potential activities covered in the Pew Research Center questionnaire, the answer is “not very.” Yes, those who describe themselves as always trying to protect the environment are a bit more likely do things such as bring their own reusable shopping bags to the grocery store in order to help the environment, but most do so only sometimes, at best. They are more likely to buy a cleaning product because its ingredients would be better for the environment, but again, most do so no more than sometimes. They are a bit more likely to have worked at a park cleanup day (23% vs. 11% of other adults) but no more likely to have cared for plantings in a public space. And they are no more likely than other Americans to reduce and reuse at home by composting, having a rain barrel or growing their own vegetables. Nor are environmentally conscious Americans more likely than other people to have spent hobby and leisure time hiking, camping, hunting or fishing in the past year.

There is one way in which environmentally conscious Americans stand out attitudinally, however. They are much more likely to be bothered when other people waste energy by leaving lights on or not recycling properly.

A majority of Americans who are focused on living in ways that protect the environment say it bothers them “a lot” when they see other people leave lights and electronic devices on (62%), or throw away things that could be recycled (61%). And, sizeable minorities of environmentally conscious Americans are bothered a lot by people incorrectly putting trash in recycling bins (42%) or people driving places that are close enough to walk (34%). The least irksome behavior is drinking from a disposable water bottle; 23% of environmentally conscious Americans say this bothers them a lot, compared with 12% among those who are less focused on everyday environmentalism.

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ABOUT PEW RESEARCH CENTER Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts .

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August 30, 2024

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New study highlights expansion of drylands amidst impact of climate change

by University of Bristol

Nearly half of the world's land surface is now classified as drylands and these areas are accelerating their own proliferation, according to new research.

The findings, published August 29 in the journal Science , show around 45% of global land surface comprises deserts, shrublands, grasslands, and savanna woodlands. A chief characteristic of these regions is water scarcity, which significantly affects natural ecosystems and human-managed landscapes, including agriculture, forestry and livestock production.

While it has long been known that climate change and land management practices contribute to dryland expansion, the results revealed a surprising factor: drylands themselves are accelerating their own spread.

Climate scientists at the University of Bristol collaborated on the study, led by Ghent University, in Belgium, with experts at Cardiff University and ETH Zurich.

Co-author Katerina Michaelides, Professor of Dryland Hydrology, said, "Drylands occupy more than 40% of the global land surface and are characterized by water scarcity resulting from low precipitation and high atmospheric water demand.

"However, climate change is exacerbating atmospheric drying in these regions, leading to further terrestrial water loss through evaporation and driving the global expansion of drylands, transforming humid regions into more arid environments."

In this new study, researchers quantified the process of dryland self-expansion by analyzing the sources of precipitation and heat over newly expanded drylands. By tracking air movements over these regions over the past 40 years, the team was able to calculate, for the first time, how much of the rainfall deficits and increased atmospheric water demand contributing to dryland expansion could be attributed to existing drylands.

"Out of the approximately 5.2 million square kilometers of humid land that transitioned into dryland over the past four decades, more than 40% of the change was due to dryland self-expansion," said lead author Dr. Akash Koppa, Post-doctoral Research Fellow at the Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab (H-CEL), Ghent University.

The study found that drying soils in existing drylands release less moisture and more heat into the atmosphere, leading to reduced rainfall and increased atmospheric water demand in downwind humid regions. Over time, this process can cause these humid areas to gradually become drylands themselves.

In regions such as Australia and Eurasia, self-expansion has been identified as the primary driver of dryland spread.

Dr. Koppa added, "As we continue to move towards a warmer and potentially drier future, the phenomenon of dryland self-propagation could accelerate, posing significant risks to human livelihoods, ecosystems, and socio-economic stability globally."

The study also highlights the regions' most vulnerable to further dryland expansion and underscores the urgent need for climate change mitigation and sustainable land management practices. By quantifying the impact of distant vegetation responses on dryland expansion, the research emphasizes the importance of coordinated ecosystem conservation efforts in existing drylands.

The team is currently focused on developing land-based adaptation strategies to prevent drought and heat propagation.

Journal information: Science

Provided by University of Bristol

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Published: 18 October 2021

Research for climate adaptation

Bruce Currie-Alder ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3224-4136 1 ,
Cynthia Rosenzweig 2 ,
Minpeng Chen 3 ,
Johanna Nalau 4 ,
Anand Patwardhan 5 &
Ying Wang 6

Communications Earth & Environment volume 2 , Article number: 220 ( 2021 ) Cite this article

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Climate-change adaptation
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An Author Correction to this article was published on 28 October 2021

This article has been updated

Adaptation to climate change must be ramped up urgently. We propose three avenues to transform ambition to action: improve tracking of actions and progress, upscale investment especially in critical areas, and accelerate learning through practice.

Ongoing climate impacts are outpacing global mitigation efforts. The reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that extreme events are increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration throughout the world. We have entered a climate beyond the range experienced in human history and we must learn to live in that emerging reality. As a result, adaptation needs to ‘increase ambition’ in the terminology of the upcoming 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Glasgow.

Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate change and its effects. Regardless of how quickly societies decarbonize, global temperatures are already more than 1 °C above the 1850-to-1900 baseline and will continue to rise through mid-century and very likely beyond. 2021 is a year of record-breaking extremes from massive heatwaves and wildfires in the United States and Canada, to deadly floods in China and Germany. In the coming decades, climate change will go on to affect the lives, health, and livelihoods of billions of people. Along with the need to accelerate mitigation, an equally important goal of COP26 is to protect people and nature by increasing ambition for adaptation. We must seize the opportunity for research to enhance its usefulness and usability in order to rapidly upscale adaptation action, now needed more than ever.

Here we outline opportunities for research to accelerate adaptation, based on consultations and interviews with representatives of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the secretariats of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations University (UNU), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), and the Green Climate Fund (GCF), that is, the organizations that convene the World Adaptation Science Programme (WASP) 1 .

We identify three promising opportunities for progress. First, the Paris Agreement mechanisms to raise ambition, such as the global stocktake, requires research to establish what adaptation is being undertaken, whether it is effective, and if it is adequate in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Secondly, we need to ensure the resilience of—and resilience through—multilateral, domestic, and private investment. This will require research to make risk visible in decisions, to identify scalable and transferable practices, and to look ahead to how such investments perform into the future. Thirdly, research must accompany adaptation actions by communities and professionals, through creative and interactive co-production to enable learning by doing.

Informing the global stocktake

The global stocktake is mandated under Article 14 of the Paris Agreement with the purpose of assessing collective progress on climate change mitigation, adaptation, and the means of implementation, in the light of equity and the best available science. A global goal on adaptation is described under Article 7 as enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience, and reducing vulnerability to climate change. The first stocktake is expected in 2023 and will reoccur every 5 years.

One particular challenge for measuring actions and progress is the wide diversity of climate and socioeconomic conditions as well as of adaptation strategies undertaken by countries and communities around the globe. The knowledge base that underpins the global stocktake needs to embrace the heterogeneity that exists at the national level, and at the same time synthesize information so that global progress can be assessed. Connecting the global goal on adaptation with the myriad of practical actions on the ground, and tracking them through time, is no simple task.

We need practical, and transparent ways of assessing adaptation, underpinned by clear definitions and consistent terminology. At one level, we heard an aspiration for metrics and indicators to monitor and assess progress towards the global goal on adaptation, in a manner that enables comparison across locations and over time. Yet such efforts also raise conceptual issues regarding what counts as adaptation, what constitutes effectiveness, how to respect the diversity of local contexts, and how do they differ from climate-resilient development 2 , 3 , 4 .

Adaptation scholarship is growing in volume and sophistication, the sheer number of articles grew more than five-fold over the most recent decade. Techniques such as systematic literature reviews and machine learning promise to offer new perspective on the state of knowledge and breadth of experience 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 . Such efforts also reveal places where evidence is less readily available, whether due to lack of research or that experience is shared in local languages. This provides a rich opportunity to place increasing focus on locations where evidence is weaker, assessing and synthesising experience-based knowledge from grey literature and making practitioner experience more visible at the global scale.

Guiding climate finance

The Adaptation Gap Report estimates that the annual costs of adaptation in developing countries could range from US$140 billion to US$300 billion annually by 2030 and rise from US$280 billion to US$500 billion by 2050 9 . Addressing these costs will require a drastic increase in the flows of public and private finance. Research needs to make the business case for funding adaptation, demonstrate the returns on investment, and ensuring its delivery where it is most needed. Unlocking finance depends on prioritizing among diverse options to invest in adaptation, assessing the synergies and trade-offs between climate action and development objectives.

Actors differ with respect to what counts as useful information and in what form. Some agencies have in-house units that scan and distill the academic literature, but others require more tailored advice on project proposals. Multilateral, national, and private sources of finance all have distinct knowledge needs, risk appetites, and ways of using evidence. For example, three-quarters of global climate finance is deployed in the country in which it is sourced 10 . In the near-term, research can work with climate finance to strengthen the evidence base and appetite for adaptation-based investment. Even the relatively large Green Climate Fund still relies heavily on grant finance for adaptation and has only two approved projects that leverage private sector funding 11 .

We note some frustration regarding the burden of proof placed upon prospective adaptation investments, the requirement to provide detailed climate scenarios on specific impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks in order to receive funding. Adaptation planning and project proposals are based on understanding the specific climate hazards, the livelihoods and assets at risk, and how investment will address those hazards and create value. Scenarios can also examine how a project might fare under a range of potential climate futures, thus anticipating limits to adaptation or avoiding maladaptation. While logical enough in principle, preparing such a climate justification can become burdensome if information must be continuously redone. Streamlined approaches are needed that are founded on climate science but that can be updated as the climate system and its impacts evolve.

Our discussions also identified instances where proposals were not funded due to a lack of historical climate data. Data collection is essential to strengthen the case for adaptation, in tandem with research that collates, curates, and archives the data so that both short-term and long-term learning can ensue.

Guiding climate finance requires rigorous science as well as sending the right signals to the market and removing barriers to investment. Ultimately research has a role in ensuring all financial flows are compliant with the Paris Agreement are supported by robust evidence, not merely those flows dedicated to assisting developing countries. The research community can help local people, policymakers, farmers, and urban planners make informed decisions by co-developing climate risk information, vulnerability assessments, and adaptation pathways.

Learning through practice

Rapid climate change is now upon us. This requires ongoing engagement among research, policy and practice. Policy and action cannot wait for the slow cycle of research-to-publication-to-recommendation. This decisive decade demands embedded approaches to research, that accompany the pursuit of massively scaled-up climate action. A renewed paradigm of solution- and action-oriented research is emerging. COP26 will see the launch of a new Adaptation Research Alliance to catalyze increased investment in action-oriented research driven by end-user needs.

Research must be integrated into practice: from problem definition to solution implementation, from program design to evaluation. There are, however, multiple barriers—social, economic, political, and institutional—to embracing action research within adaptation. We need to speak to the distinct styles of communication and the incentives that motivate research and policy communities. Research is often painstakingly careful and cautious, whereas policy and practice need timely advice and are deeply grounded in political and practical considerations.

Our interviews tapped into tremendous enthusiasm for adaptation research that is embedded in action. There is an openness for research to accompany implementation of adaptation plans, to catalyze learning from the results of practice, to rapidly scale up what works and let go of what is not effective. Specific expectations raised include the potential for research to facilitate cost-effective action, to provide practical guidance and toolboxes that can be easily accessed and used, and to go further to demonstrate outcomes in practice. Researchers need to understand the decisions practitioners are facing, the information that they need, and contexts in which they operate. This does not mean making research subservient to the pursuit of climate action, but rather to bring its critical eye to refining and enhancing that practice.

Three ways to facilitate action

We have highlighted opportunities for research to inform the global stocktake, guide climate finance, and learn through practice. These three opportunities are all part of the overall shift in adaptation research to move beyond identifying climate risks and vulnerability towards providing a full suite of the knowledge required to implement solutions and improve outcomes in the light of equity and the best available science.

Increasing ambition for adaptation to the climate crisis requires collaboration and change in both the world of science and the world of policy and practice. Policymakers and practitioners need to engage more with researchers, just as researchers need to engage more with policymakers and practitioners. This deeper integration between research and society is beginning to emerge, as scientists are striving much harder to make their findings usable and useful, and policymakers and practitioners are engaging much more directly with the research community. These are the efforts that will elevate adaptation ambition and action across the globe.

Change history

28 october 2021.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00302-8

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Bruce Currie-Alder

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Cynthia Rosenzweig

Renmin University, Beijing, China

Minpeng Chen

Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

Johanna Nalau

University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

Anand Patwardhan

United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya

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B.C. and C.R. conducted the interviews and wrote the paper. All authors (B.C, C.R, M.P.C, J.N., A.P. and Y.W.) contributed to data interpretation, and provided inputs and edits throughout the process.

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Advancing the Science of Climate Change (2010)

Chapter: 4 integrative themes for climate change research, chapter four integrative themes for climate change research.

O ne of the main tasks assigned to the Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change was to identify the additional science needed to improve our understanding of climate change and its interactions with human and environmental systems, including the scientific advances needed to improve the effectiveness of actions taken to respond to climate change. An examination of the research needs identified in the technical chapters of Part II of the report reveals that there is indeed still much to learn. However, our analysis suggests that the most crucial research needs of the coming decades can be captured in seven crosscutting research themes, whether one is interested in sea level rise, agriculture, human health, national security, or other topics of concern. For example, nearly every chapter in Part II calls for improved understanding of human behaviors and institutions, more detailed information about projected future changes in climate, and improved methods for assessing the economic, social, and environmental costs, benefits, co-benefits, and unintended consequences of actions taken in response to climate change.

Box 4.1 lists the seven crosscutting research themes that the panel has identified, grouped into three general categories: research for improving understanding of coupled human-environment systems, research for improving and supporting more effective responses to climate change, and tools and approaches needed for both of these types of research. These seven crosscutting themes are not intended to represent a comprehensive or exclusive list of research needs, nor do the numbers indicate priority order. Rather, they represent a way of categorizing and, potentially, organizing some of the nation’s most critical climate change research activities. Most of these themes are integrative—they require collaboration across different fields of study, including some fields that are not typically part of the climate change science enterprise. Moreover, there are important synergies among the seven themes, and they are not completely independent. For example, research focused on improving responses to climate change will clearly benefit from increased understanding of both human systems and the Earth system, and advances in observations, models, and scientific understanding often go hand in hand. Finally, because most of the themes include research that contributes both to fundamental scientific understanding and to more informed decision making, research under all seven themes would benefit from

increased dialogue with decision makers across a wide range of sectors and scales. As discussed in Chapter 5 , these characteristics all point to the need for an expanded and enhanced climate change science enterprise—an enterprise that is comprehensive, integrative, interdisciplinary, and better supports decision making both in the United States and around the world.

In the following sections, the seven integrative, crosscutting research themes identified by the panel are discussed in detail. Our intent is to describe some of the more important scientific issues that could be addressed within each theme, to show how they collectively span the most critical areas of climate change research, and to demonstrate the vital importance of research progress in all of these areas to the health and well-being of citizens of the United States as well as people and natural systems around the world. Issues related to the implementation of these themes are explored in the next chapter.

THEME 1: CLIMATE FORCINGS, FEEDBACKS, RESPONSES, AND THRESHOLDS IN THE EARTH SYSTEM

Scientific understanding of climate change and its interactions with other environmental changes is underpinned by empirical and theoretical understanding of the Earth system, which includes the atmosphere, land surface, cryosphere, and oceans,

as well as interactions among these components. Numerous decisions about climate change, including setting emissions targets and developing and implementing adaptation plans, rest on understanding how the Earth system will respond to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other climate forcings. While this understanding has improved markedly over the past several decades, a number of key uncertainties remain. These include the strength of certain forcings and feedbacks, the possibility of abrupt changes, and the details of how climate change will play out at local and regional scales over decadal and centennial time scales. While research on these topics cannot be expected to eliminate all of the uncertainties associated with Earth system processes (and uncertainties in future human actions will always remain), efforts to improve projections of climate and other Earth system changes can be expected to yield more robust and more relevant information for decision making, as well as a better characterization of remaining uncertainties.

Research on forcing, feedbacks, thresholds, and other aspects of the Earth system has been ongoing for many years under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and its predecessors (see Appendix E ). Our analysis—the details of which can be found in Part II of the report—indicates that additional research, supported by expanded observational and modeling capacity, is needed to better understand climate forcings, feedbacks, responses, and thresholds in the Earth system. A list of some of the specific research needs within this crosscutting theme is included in Table 4.1 , and the subsections below and the chapters of Part II include additional discussion of these topics. Many of these needs have also been articulated, often in greater detail, in a range of recent reports by the USGCRP, the National Research Council, federal agencies, and other groups.

Climate Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

Great strides have been made in improving our understanding of the natural variability in the climate system (see, e.g., Chapter 6 of this report and USGCRP, 2009b). These improvements have translated directly into advances in detecting and attributing human-induced climate change, simulating past and future climate in models, and understanding the links between the climate system and other environmental and human systems. For example, the ability to realistically simulate natural climate variations, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, has been a critical driver for, and test of, the development of climate models (see Theme 7 ). Improved understanding of natural variability modes is also critical for improving regional climate projections, especially on decadal time scales. Research on the impacts of natural climate variations can also provide insight into the possible impacts of human-

TABLE 4.1 Examples of Research Needs Related to Improving Fundamental Understanding of Climate Forcings, Feedbacks, Responses, and Thresholds in the Earth System

• Improve understanding of transient climate change and its dependence on ocean circulation, heat transport, mixing processes, and other factors, especially in the context of decadal-scale climate change.

• Extend understanding of natural climate variability on a wide range of space and time scales, including events in the distant past.

• Improve estimates of climate sensitivity, including theoretical, modeling, and observationally based approaches.

• Expand observations and understanding of aerosols, especially their radiative forcing effects and implications for strategies that might be taken to limit the magnitude of future climate change;

• Improve understanding of cloud processes, and cloud-aerosol interactions, especially in the context of radiative forcing, climate feedbacks, and precipitation processes.

• Improve understanding of ice sheets, including the mechanisms, causes, dynamics, and relative likelihood of ice sheet collapse versus ice sheet melting.

• Advance understanding of thresholds and abrupt changes in the Earth system.

• Expand understanding of carbon cycle processes in the context of climate change and develop Earth system models that include improved representations of carbon cycle processes and feedbacks.

• Improve understanding of ocean dynamics and regional rates of sea level rise.

• Improve understanding of the hydrologic cycle, especially changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation and feedbacks of human water use on climate.

• Improve understanding and models of how agricultural crops, fisheries, and natural and managed ecosystems respond to changes in temperature, precipitation, CO levels and other environmental and management changes.

• Improve understanding of ocean acidification and its effects on marine ecosystems and fisheries.

SOURCE: These research needs (and those included in each of the other six themes in this chapter) are compiled from the detailed lists of key research needs identified in the technical chapters of of this report.

induced climate change. Continued research on the mechanisms and manifesta-mechanisms and manifestations of natural climate variability in the atmosphere and oceans on a wide range of space and time scales, including events in the distant past, can be expected to yield, can be expected to yield additional progress.

Some of the largest risks associated with climate change are associated with the potential for abrupt changes or other climate “surprises” (see Chapters 3 and 6 ). The paleoclimate record indicates that such abrupt changes have occurred in the past, but our ability to predict future abrupt changes is constrained by our limited understand-

ing of thresholds and other nonlinear processes in the Earth system. An improved understanding of the likelihood and potential consequences of these changes will be important for setting GHG emissions-reduction targets and for developing adaptation strategies that are robust in the face of uncertainty. Sustained observations will be critical for identifying abrupt changes and other climate surprises if and when they occur, and for supporting the development of improved abrupt change simulations in climate models. Finally, since some abrupt changes or other climate surprises may result from complex interactions within or among different components of coupled human-environment systems, improved understanding is needed on multiple stresses and their potential role in future climate shifts (NRC, 2002a).

Improved understanding of forcings, feedbacks, and natural variability on regional scales is also needed. Many decisions related to climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation could benefit from improvements in regional-scale information, especially over the next several decades. As discussed in Theme 7 , these improvements require advances in understanding regional climate dynamics, including atmospheric circulation in complex terrain as well as modes of natural variability on all time scales. It is especially important to understand how regional variability patterns may change under different scenarios of global climate change and the feedbacks that regional changes may in turn have on continental- and global-scale processes. Regional climate models, which are discussed later in this chapter, are a key tool in this area of research.

The Atmosphere

Many research needs related to factors that influence the atmosphere and other components of the physical climate system are discussed in the chapters of Part II , and many of these needs have also been summarized in other recent reports. For example, many of the conclusions and research recommendations in Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks (NRC, 2003b) and Radiative Forcing of Climate Change (NRC, 2005d), such as those highlighted in the following two paragraphs, remain highly relevant today:

The physical and chemical processing of aerosols and trace gases in the atmosphere, the dependence of these processes on climate, and the influence of climate-chemical interactions on the optical properties of aerosols must be elucidated. A more complete understanding of the emissions, atmospheric burden, final sinks, and interactions of carbonaceous and other aerosols with clouds and the hydrologic cycle needs to be developed. Intensive regional measurement campaigns (ground-based, airborne, satellite) should be con-

ducted that are designed from the start with guidance from global aerosol models so that the improved knowledge of the processes can be directly applied in the predictive models that are used to assess future climate change scenarios.

The key processes that control the abundance of tropospheric ozone and its interactions with climate change also need to be better understood, including but not limited to stratospheric influx; natural and anthropogenic emissions of precursor species such as NO x , CO, and volatile organic carbon; the net export of ozone produced in biomass burning and urban plumes; the loss of ozone at the surface, and the dependence of all these processes on climate change. The chemical feedbacks that can lead to changes in the atmospheric lifetime of CH 4 also need to be identified and quantified. (NRC, 2003b)

Two particularly important—and closely linked—research topics related to forcing and feedback processes in the physical climate system are clouds and aerosols. Aerosols and aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties play an important role in offsetting some of the warming associated with GHG emissions and may have important implications for several proposed strategies for limiting the magnitude of climate change (see Theme 4 ). Cloud processes modulate future changes in temperature and in the hydrologic cycle and thus represent a key feedback. As noted later in this chapter, the representation of cloud and aerosol processes in climate models has been a challenge for many years, in part because some of the most important cloud and aerosol processes play out at spatial scales that are finer than global climate models are currently able to routinely resolve, and in part because of the complexity and limited understanding of the processes themselves. Continued and improved observations, field campaigns, process studies, and experiments with smaller-domain, high-resolution models are needed to improve scientific understanding of cloud and aerosol processes, and improved parameterizations will be needed to incorporate this improved understanding into global climate models.

The Cryosphere

Changes in the cryosphere, especially the major ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, represent another key research area in the physical climate system. Comprehensive, simultaneous, and sustained measurements of ice sheet mass and volume changes and ice velocities are needed, along with measurements of ice thickness and bed conditions, both to quantify the current contributions of ice sheets to sea level rise (discussed below) and to constrain and inform ice sheet model development. These measurements, which include satellite, aircraft, and in situ observations, need

to overlap for several decades in order to enable the unambiguous isolation of ice melt, ice dynamics, snow accumulation, and thermal expansion. Equally important are investments in improving ice sheet process models that capture ice dynamics as well as ice-ocean and ice-bed interactions. Efforts are already underway to improve modeling capabilities in these critical areas, but fully coupled ice-ocean-land models will ultimately be needed to reliably assess ice sheet stability, and considerable work remains to develop and validate such models. Glaciers and ice caps outside Greenland and Antarctica are also expected to remain significant contributors to sea level rise in the near term, so observations and analysis of these systems remain critical for understanding decadal and century-scale sea level rise. Finally, additional paleoclimate data from ice cores, corals, and ocean sediments would be valuable for testing models and improving our understanding of the impacts of sea level rise.

A variety of ocean processes are important for controlling the timing and characteristics of climate change. For a given climate forcing scenario, the timing of atmospheric warming is strongly dependent on the north-south transport of heat by ocean currents and mixing of heat into the ocean interior. Changes in the large-scale meridional overturning circulation could also have a significant impact on regional and global climate and could potentially lead to abrupt changes (Alley et al., 2003; NRC, 2002a). The relative scarcity of ocean observations, especially in the ocean interior, makes these factors among the more uncertain aspects of future climate projections. Changes in ocean circulations and heat transport are also connected to the rapid disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. A better understanding of the dependence of ocean heat uptake on vertical mixing and the abrupt changes in polar reflectivity that follow the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic are some of the most critical improvements needed in ocean and Earth system models.

Ice dynamics and thermal expansion are the main drivers of rising sea levels on a global basis, but ocean dynamics and coastal processes lead to substantial spatial variability in local and regional rates of sea level rise (see Chapters 2 and 7 ). Direct, long-term monitoring of sea level and related oceanographic properties via tide gauges, ocean altimetry measurements from satellites, and an expanded network of in situ measurements of temperature and salinity through the full depth of the ocean water column are needed to quantify the rate and spatial variability of sea level change and to understand the ocean dynamics that control global and local rates of sea level rise. In addition, oceanographic, geodetic, and coastal models are needed to predict the rate and spatial dynamics of ocean thermal expansion, sea level rise, and coastal

inundation. The need for regionally specific information creates additional challenges. For example, coastal inundation models require better bathymetric data, better data on precipitation rates and stream flows, ways of dealing with storm-driven sediment transport, and the ability to include the effects of built structures on coastal wind stress patterns (see Chapter 7 ). Such improvements in projections of sea level changes are critical for many different decision needs.

The Hydrosphere

There is already clear evidence that changes in the hydrologic cycle are occurring in response to climate change (see, e.g., Trenberth et al., 2007; USGCRP, 2009a). Improved regional projections of changes in precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and groundwater availability on seasonal to multidecadal time scales are needed to inform water management and planning decisions, especially decisions related to long-term infrastructure investments. Likewise, projections of changes in the frequency and intensity of severe storms, storm paths, floods, and droughts are critical both for water management planning and for many adaption decisions. Developing improved understanding and projections of hydrological and water resource changes will require new multiscale modeling approaches, such as nesting cloud-resolving climate models into regional weather models and then coupling these models to land surface models that are capable of simulating the hydrologic cycle, vegetation, multiple soil layers, groundwater, and stream flow. Improved data collection, data analysis, and linkages with water managers are also critical. See Chapter 8 for additional details.

Ecosystems on Land

Climate change interacts with ecosystem processes in a variety of ways, including direct and indirect influences on biodiversity, range and seasonality shifts in both plants and animals, and changes in productivity and element cycling processes, among others (NRC, 2008b). Research is needed to understand how rapidly species and ecosystems can or cannot adjust in response to climate-related changes and to understand the implications of such adjustments for ecosystem services. In addition, improved analyses of the interactions of climate-related variables—especially temperature, moisture, and CO 2 —with each other and in combination with other natural and human-caused changes (e.g., land use change, water diversions, and landscape-scale management choices) are needed, as such interactions are more relevant than any individual change acting alone. Climate change-related changes in fire, pest, and other disturbance regimes have also not been well assessed, especially at regional scales.

Research is needed to identify the ecosystems, ecosystem services, species, and people reliant on them that are most vulnerable. See Chapter 9 for additional details.

The Carbon Cycle

Changes in the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical cycles play a key role in modulating atmospheric and oceanic concentrations of CO 2 and other GHGs. Scientists have learned a great deal over the past 50 years about the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere and the effects of these changes on temperature and other climate change (CCSP, 2007a). However, key uncertainties remain. For example, we have an incomplete understanding of how interacting changes in temperature, precipitation, CO 2 , and nutrient availability will change the processing of carbon by land ecosystems and, thus, the amount of CO 2 emitted or taken up by ecosystems in the decades ahead (see Chapter 9 ). As noted in Chapters 2 and 6 , some of these feedbacks have the potential to dramatically accelerate global warming (e.g., the possibility that the current warming of permafrost in high-latitude regions will lead to melting of frozen soils and release huge amounts of CO 2 and CH 4 into the atmosphere). Changes in biogeochemical processes and biodiversity (including changes in reflectance characteristics due to land use changes) also have the potential to feed back on the climate system on a variety of time scales. Models and experiments that integrate knowledge about ecosystem processes, plant physiology, vegetation dynamics, and disturbances such as fire are needed, and such models should be linked with climate models.

As the ocean warms and ocean circulation patterns change, future changes in the ocean carbon cycle are also uncertain. For example, it is unclear whether the natural “biological pump,” which transports enormous amounts of carbon from the surface to the deep ocean, will be enhanced (Riebesell et al., 2007) or diminished (Mari, 2008) by ocean acidification and by changes in ocean circulation. Recent observational and modeling results suggest that the rate of ocean uptake of CO 2 may in fact be declining (Khatiwala et al., 2009). Because the oceans currently absorb over 25 percent of human-caused CO 2 emissions (see Chapter 6 ), changes in ocean CO 2 uptake could have profound climate implications. Results from the first generation of coupled carbon-climate models suggest that the capacity of the oceans and land surface to store carbon will decrease with global warming, which would represent a positive feedback on warming (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). Improved understanding and representation of the carbon cycle in Earth system models is thus a critical research need.

Interactions with Managed Systems and the Built Environment

Feedbacks and thresholds within human systems and human-managed systems, and between the climate system and human systems, are a closely related research need that spans both this research theme and several of the other research themes described in this chapter. For example, crops respond to multiple and interacting changes in temperature, moisture, CO 2 , ozone, and other factors, such as pests, diseases, and weeds. Experimental studies that evaluate the interactions of multiple factors are needed, especially in ecosystem-scale experiments and in environments where temperature is already close to optimal for crops. Of particular concern are water resources for agriculture, which are influenced at regional scales by competition from other uses as well as by changing frequency and intensity of rainfall. Assessments that evaluate crop response to climate-related variables should explicitly include interactions with other resources that are also affected by climate change. Designing effective agricultural strategies for limiting and adapting to climate change will require models and analyses that reflect these complicated interactions and that also incorporate the response of farmers and markets not only to production and prices but to policies and institutions (see Themes 3, 4, and 7 below).

In fisheries, sustainable yields require matching catch limits with the growth of the fishery. Climate variability already makes forecasting the growth of fish populations difficult, and future climate change will increase this uncertainty. There is considerable uncertainty about—and considerable risk associated with—the sensitivity of fish species to ocean acidification. Further studies of connections between climate and marine population dynamics are needed to enhance model frameworks for effective fisheries management. Most fisheries are also subject to other stressors, such as increasing levels of pollution, and the interactions of these other stresses should be analyzed and incorporated into models. Finally, all of these efforts should be linked to the analysis of effective institutions and policies for managing fisheries. (See Chapter 9 for additional details of links between climate change and agriculture and fisheries.)

The role of large built environments (including the transportation and energy systems associated with them) in shaping GHG emissions, aerosol levels, ground-level air pollution, and surface reflectivity need to be examined in a systematic and comparative way to develop a better understanding of their role in climate forcing. This should include attention to the extended effect of urban areas on other areas (such as deposition of urban emissions on ocean and rural land surfaces) as well as interactions between urban and regional heat islands and urban vegetation-evapotranspiration feedbacks to climate. Examination of both local and supralocal institutions, markets, and policies will be required to understand the various ways urban centers drive

climate change and to identify leverage points for intervention. (See Chapter 10 and Theme 4 later in this chapter for additional details.)

Finally, the identification and evaluation of unintended consequences of proposed or already-initiated strategies to limit the magnitude of climate change or adapt to its impacts will need to be evaluated as part of the overall evaluation of the efficacy of such approaches. This topic is explored in more detail later in the chapter, but it depends on a robust Earth system research enterprise.

THEME 2: CLIMATE-RELATED HUMAN BEHAVIORS AND INSTITUTIONS

Knowledge gained from research involving physical, chemical, and ecological processes has been critical for establishing that climate change poses sufficiently serious risks to justify careful consideration and evaluation of alternative responses. Emerging concerns about how best to respond to climate change also bring to the fore questions about human interactions with the climate system: how human activities drive climate change; how people understand, decide, and act in the climate context; how people are affected by climate change; and how human and social systems might respond. Thus, not surprisingly, many of the research needs that emerge from the detailed analyses in Part II focus on human interactions with climate change (see Table 4.2 ).

Human and social systems play a key role in both causing and responding to climate change. Therefore, in the context of climate change, a better understanding of human behavior and of the role of institutions and organizations is as fundamental to effective decision making as a better understanding of the climate system. Such knowledge underlies the ability to solve focused problems of climate response, such as deciding how to prioritize investments in protecting coastal communities from sea level rise, choosing policies to meet federal or state targets for reducing GHG emissions, and developing better ways to help citizens understand what science can and cannot tell them about potential climate-driven water supply changes. Such fundamental understanding provides the scientific base for making informed choices about climate responses in much the same way that a fundamental understanding of the physical climate system provides the scientific base for projecting the consequences of climate change.

Research investments in the behavioral and social sciences would expand this knowledge base, but such investments have been lacking in the past (e.g., NRC, 1990a, 1999a, 2003a, 2004b, 2005a, 2007f, 2009k). Barriers and institutional factors, both in research funding agencies and in academia more broadly, have also constrained progress in

TABLE 4.2 Examples of Research Needs on Human Behavior, Institutions, and Interactions with the Climate System (from Part II )

• Improve understanding of water-related institutions and governance.

• Improve understanding of human behaviors and institutional and behavioral impediments to reducing energy demand and adopting energy-efficient technologies.

• Improve understanding of what leads to the adoption and implementation of international agreements on climate and other environmental issues and what forms of such agreements most effectively achieve their goals.

• Improve understanding of how institutions interact in the context of multilevel governance and adaptive management.

• Improve understanding of the behaviors, infrastructure, and technologies that influence human activities in the transportation, urban, agricultural, fisheries, and other sectors.

• Improve understanding of the relationship between climate change and institutional responses that affect national security, food security, health, and other aspects of social well-being.

these areas (NRC, 1992a). This section outlines some of the key areas of fundamental research on human behavior and institutions that need to be developed to support better understanding of human interactions with the climate system and provide a scientific basis for informing more effective responses to climate change. It draws on several past analyses and assessments of research gaps and needs (NRC, 1992a, 1997a, 2001, 2002b, 2005a, 2009g, 2009k).

How People Understand Climate Change and Climate Risks

Climate change represents a special challenge for human comprehension (Fischhoff, 2007; Marx and Weber, 2009). To make decisions about climate change, a basic understanding of the processes of climate change and of how to evaluate the associated risks and potential benefits would be helpful for most audiences. However, despite several decades of exposure to information about climate change, such understanding is still widely lacking. A number of recent scientific analyses (Leiserowitz, 2007; Maibach et al., 2010; Moser and Tribbia, 2006, 2007; Wilson, 2002; see also NRC, 2010b) have identified some of the comprehension challenges people—including both the general public and trained professional in some fields—face in making decisions about how to respond to climate change.

First, because of the inherent uncertainties, projections of future climate change are often presented in terms of probabilities. Cognitive studies have established that humans have difficulty in processing probabilistic information, relying instead on cogni-

tive shortcuts that may deviate substantially from what would result from a careful analysis (e.g., Gigerenzer, 2008; Nichols, 1999).

Second, the time scale of climate change makes it difficult for most people to observe these changes in their daily lives. Climate change impacts are not yet dramatically noticeable in the most populated regions of the United States, and even rapid climate change takes place over decades, making it difficult for people to notice unless they look at historical records (Bostrom and Lashof, 2007; Moser, 2010). Scientists are only beginning to understand how recent and longer-term trends in weather influence perceptions of climate change (Hamilton and Keim, 2009; Joireman et al., in press). It is also difficult to unambiguously attribute individual weather events to climate change, and climate change is easily displaced by events people perceive as exceptional or simply as more important at any one time (Fischhoff, 2007; Marx and Weber, 2009; Marx et al., 2007; Weber, 2006).

Third, people commonly use analogies, associations, or simplified mental models to communicate or comprehend climate change, and these simplifications can result in significant misunderstandings. For example, climate change is sometimes confused with other types of pollution or with other global atmospheric problems (especially the stratospheric ozone “hole,” which some people erroneously think leads to global warming by allowing more solar radiation to enter the atmosphere) (Bostrom et al., 1994; Brechin, 2003; Kempton, 1991). Likewise, confusing the atmospheric lifetimes of GHGs with those of conventional air pollutants sometimes leads people to the erroneous inference that if emissions stop, the climate change problem will rapidly go away (Bostrom and Lashof, 2007; Morgan et al., 2001; Sterman, 2008; Sterman and Booth Sweeney, 2007).

Fourth, individual information processing is influenced by social processes, including the “frames” people apply when deciding how to assess new information, the trust they have in sources providing new information, and the views of those to whom they are connected in social networks (Durfee, 2006; Morgan et al., 2001; Moser and Dilling, 2007; Nisbet and Mooney, 2007; NRC, 2010b; Pidgeon et al., 2008). Information that is consistent with, rather than incongruent with, existing beliefs and values is more likely to be accepted, as is information from trusted sources (Bishr and Mantelas, 2008; Cash et al., 2003; Critchley, 2008; Cvetkovich and Loefstedt, 1999).

These challenges demonstrate the importance of understanding how people—acting as consumers, citizens, or members of organizations and social networks—comprehend climate change, and how these cognitive processes influence climate-relevant decisions and behaviors. Fundamental knowledge of risk perception provides a basis for this understanding (e.g., NRC, 1996; Pidgeon et al., 2003; Renn, 2008; Slovic,

2000), but this knowledge needs to be extended and elaborated (e.g., Lorenzoni et al., 2005; Lowe, 2006; O’Neill and Nicholson-Cole, 2009). A wide range of relevant theories and concepts have been advanced in various branches of psychology, sociology, and anthropology, as well as the political, pedagogic, and decision sciences (among others), but these have yet to be more fully synthesized and applied to climate change (Moser, 2010). Improved knowledge of how individuals, groups, networks, and organizations understand climate change and make decisions for responding to environmental changes can inform the design and evaluation of tools that better support decision making (NRC, 2009g).

Institutions, Organizations, and Networks

Individual decisions about climate change, important as they are, are not the only human decisions that shape the trajectory of climate change. Some of the most consequential climate-relevant decisions and actions are shaped by institutions—such as markets, government policies, and international treaties—and by public and private organizations.

Institutions shape incentives and the flow of information. They can also either encourage or help us avoid situations where individual actions lead to outcomes that are undesirable for both the individual and the group (sometimes called “the tragedy of the commons”). The problem of decision making for the collective good has been extensively studied around localized resources such as forests or fisheries (Chhatre and Agrawal, 2008; Dietz and Henry, 2008; McCay and Jentoft, 2009; Moran and Ostrom, 2005; NRC, 2002b; Ostrom, 2007, 2010; Ostrom and Nagendra, 2006). This body of research can provide important guidance for shaping effective responses to climate change at local and regional levels. It can also inform the design and implementation of national and international climate policies (see Chapter 17 ). However, improving our understanding of the flexibility and efficacy of current institutions and integrating this body of knowledge with existing work on international treaties, national policies, and other governance regimes remains a significant research challenge.

Many environmentally significant decisions are made by organizations, including governments, publicly traded companies, and private businesses. Research on environmental decision making by businesses covers a broad range of issues. These include responses to consumer and investor demand, management of supply chains and production networks, standard setting within sectors, decisions about technology and process, how environmental performance is assessed and reported, and the interplay between government policy and private-sector decision making (NRC, 2005a). Re-

sponses to climate change in the private sector have not been studied as extensively, but such research efforts might yield important insights.

A number of state and local governments have also been proactive in developing policies to adapt to climate change and reduce GHG emissions. To learn from these experiences, which is a key aspect of adaptive risk management, research is needed on both the effectiveness of these policies and the various factors that influenced their adoption (Brody et al., 2008; Teodoro, 2009; Zahran et al., 2008). In the United States, local policies are almost always embedded in state policies, which in turn are embedded in national policies, raising issues of multilevel governance—another emerging research area (see Chapter 17 ).

Finally, it is clear that public policy is shaped not only by the formal organizations of government, but also by policy networks that include government, the private sector, and the public. An emerging challenge is to understand how these networks influence policy and how they transmit and learn from new information (Bulkeley, 2005; Henry, 2009).

Environmentally Significant Consumption

Decisions about consumption at the individual, household, community, business, and national levels have a profound effect on GHG emissions. For example, voluntary consumer choices to increase the efficiency of household energy use could reduce total U.S. GHG emissions by over 7 percent if supportive policies were in place (Dietz et al., 2009b). Consumer choices also influence important aspects of vulnerability and adaptation; for example, increasing demand for meat in human diets places stresses on the global food system as well as on the environment (Fiala, 2008; Stehfest et al., 2009), and demand for beachfront homes increases vulnerability and shapes adaptation options related to sea level rise, storm surges, and other coastal impacts.

Considerable research on consumption decision making has been carried out in economics, psychology, sociology, anthropology, and geography (NRC, 1997a, 2005a), but much of this research has been conducted in isolation. For example, economic analyses often take preferences as given. Studies in psychology, sociology, and anthropology, on the other hand, focus on the social influences on preferences but often fail to account for economic processes. Decisions based on knowledge from multiple disciplines are thus much more likely to be effective than decisions that rely on the perspective of a single discipline, and advances in the understanding of climate and related environmental decision making are likely to require collaboration across multiple social science disciplines (NRC, 1997a, 2002b). This is an area of research where

theories and methodologies are in place but progress has been slowed by a lack of support for experiments and large-scale data collection efforts that integrate across disciplines.

Human Drivers of Climate Change

Ultimately, it is desirable to understand how choices, and the factors that shape them, lead to specific environmental outcomes (Dietz et al., 2009c; Vayda, 1988). A variety of hypotheses have been offered and tested about the key societal factors that shape environmental change—what are often called the drivers of change (NRC, 1992a). Growth in population and consumption, technological change, land and resource use, and the social, institutional, and cultural factors shaping the behavior of individuals and organizations have all been proposed as critical drivers, and some empirical work has elucidated the influence of each of them (NRC, 1997b, 1999c, 2005a, 2008b). However, much of this research has focused on only one or a few factors at a time and has used highly aggregated data (Dietz et al., 2009a). To understand the many human drivers of climate change as a basis for better-informed decision making, it will be necessary to develop and test integrative models that examine multiple driving forces together, examine how they interact with each other at different scales of human activity and over time, and consider how their effects vary across different contexts.

To evaluate the effectiveness of policies or other actions designed to limit the magnitude of climate change, increased understanding is needed about both the elasticity of climate drivers—the extent to which changes in drivers produce changes in climate impacts—and the plasticity of drivers, or the ease with which the driver can be changed by policy interventions (York et al., 2002). For example, analyses of the effects of population growth on GHG emissions suggest an elasticity of about 1 to 1.5; that is, for every 1 percent increase in human population, there is roughly a 1 to 1.5 percent increase in environmental impact (Clark et al., 2010; Dietz et al., 2007; Jorgenson, 2007, 2009; Shi, 2003; York et al., 2003). On the other hand, recent research suggests that environmental impact is more directly related to the number of households than to the number of people (Cole and Neumayer, 2004; Liu et al., 2003). Thus, a shift to smaller average household size could offset or even overwhelm the reduction in climate drivers resulting from reduced population growth. Similarly, it has been argued that increasing affluence leads at first to increased environmental impact but, once a threshold level of affluence has been reached, environmental impact declines (Grossman and Krueger, 1995; Selden and Song, 1994). In the case of GHG emissions, however, emissions apparently continue to increase with increasing affluence (Carson,

2010; Cavlovic et al., 2000; Dasgupta et al., 2002; Dietz et al., 2007; Stern, 2004), suggesting that economic growth alone will not reduce emissions.

Processes that Induce or Constrain Innovation

The adoption of new technology is yet another area in which institutions, organizations, and networks have an important influence on decision making. New and improved technologies will be needed to meet the challenges of limiting climate change and adapting to its impacts (NRC, 2010a,c). However, the mere existence of a new technology with desirable properties is not sufficient to ensure its use. For example, individuals and organizations are currently far less energy efficient than is technologically feasible or economically optimal (Jaffe and Stavins, 1994; Weber, 2009). There are also many examples of differential use of or opposition to new technologies among individuals, communities, and even nations. Although adoption of and resistance to innovation, especially in new technologies, have been extensively studied (e.g., Stern et al., 2009), much of this research has been technology specific. A validated theoretical framework has not yet been developed for analyses of adoption issues related to new technologies to reduce GHG emissions or enhance resilience of particular systems, or of proposals to intentionally modify the climate system (see Chapter 15 ). One lesson from the existing literature is worth highlighting—the earlier in the process of technological development that social acceptance is considered, the more likely it is that technologies will be developed that will actually be used (Rosa and Clark, 1999). Another is that, beyond the character of the innovation itself, it is essential to understand the role of the decision and institutional environment in fostering or constraining its adoption (Lemos, 2008; Rayner et al., 2005). Many of these concepts and research needs also emerge from the next two themes in this chapter.

THEME 3: VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ANALYSES OF COUPLED HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT SYSTEMS

Not all people, activities, environments, and places are equally vulnerable 1 or resilient to the impacts of climate change. Identification of differences in vulnerability across space and time is both a pivotal research issue and a critical way in which scientific research can provide input to decision makers as they make plans to adapt to climate

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including changes in climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (NRC, 2010a).

Coastal regions house most of the world’s people, cities, and economic activities. For example, in 2000, the coastal counties of California were home to 77 percent of the state’s residents, 81 percent of jobs, and 86 percent of the state’s gross product—which represents nearly 19 percent of the total U.S. economy (Kildow and Colgan, 2005). A number of climate and climate-related processes have the potential to damage human and environmental systems in the coastal zone, including sea level rise; saltwater intrusion; storm surge and damages from flooding, inundation, and erosion; changes in the number and strength of coastal storms; and overall changes in precipitation amounts and intensity. Under virtually all scenarios of projected future climate change, coastal areas face increased risks to their transportation and port systems, real estate, fishing, tourism, small businesses, power generating and supply systems, other critical infrastructure (such as hospitals, schools, and police and fire stations), and countless managed and natural ecosystems.

Coastal regions are not homogenous, however, and climate change impacts will play out in different ways in different places. Some areas of the coast and some industries and populations are more vulnerable, and thus more likely to suffer harm, than others. Thus, managers and decision makers in the coastal zone—including land use planners, conservation area managers, fisheries councils, transportation planners, water supply engineers, hazard and emergency response personnel, and others—will face a wide range of challenges, many of them place specific, regarding how to respond to the risks posed by climate change. What does a coastal land use planner need to know about climate change impacts in order to make decisions about land use in a particular region? How can a research program provide information that will assist decision makers in such regions?

Knowledge and predictions about just how much sea level will rise in certain regions over time is a fundamental question. However, as noted in , precise projections are not easy to provide. Moreover, sea level rise projections are, by themselves, not sufficient to meet coastal managers’ information needs. Managers also need to know how changes in sea level translate into erosion rates, flooding

change. Indeed, the companion report Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (NRC, 2010a) identifies vulnerability assessments as a key first step in many if not all adaptation-related decisions and actions. An example of the use of vulnerability assessments in the context of climate-related decision making in the coastal zone can be found in Box 4.2 .

In addition to merely identifying and characterizing vulnerabilities, scientific research can help identify and assess actions that could be taken to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience and adaptive capacity in human and environmental systems. Combined vulnerability and adaptation analyses can, for example, identify “no-regrets” actions that could be taken at little or no cost and would be beneficial regardless of

frequencies, storm surge levels, risks associated with different development setback limits, numbers of endangered species in exposed coastal ecosystems, habitat changes, and changes in water supply and quality parameters. In addition to these climate and other environmental changes, coastal managers need to consider the numbers of hospitals, schools, and senior citizens in potentially affected areas; property tax dollars generated in the coastal zone; trends in tourism; and many other factors.

Vulnerability assessments of human, social, physical, and biological resources in the coastal zone can help decision makers identify the places and people that are most vulnerable to climate change and help them to identify effective steps that can be taken to reduce vulnerability or increase adaptive capacity. To help coastal managers and other decision makers assess risks, evaluate trade-offs, and make adaptation decisions, they need a scientific research program that improves understanding and projections of sea level rise and other climate change impacts at regional scales, integrates this understanding with improved understanding or nonclimatic changes relevant to decision making, identifies and evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of different adaptation options, and facilitates ongoing assessment and monitoring. Such a program would require the engagement of many different kinds of researchers, including those focusing on resource and land use institutions; social dynamics; economic resilience; developing or evaluating regional climate models; sea level and ocean dynamics; coastal ocean circulation; spatial geomorphologic, geologic, and geographical characteristics; and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, goods, and services. In addition to interdisciplinary interactions, research teams would benefit from interactions with decision makers to improve knowledge and understanding of the specific challenges they face (Cash et al., 2003; NRC, 2008h, 2009k). The knowledge gained by these researchers needs to be integrated and synthesized in decision-support frameworks that actively involve and are accessible to decision makers (e.g., Kates et al., 2006; Moser and Luers, 2008). Finally, a research enterprise that includes the development, testing, and implementation of improved risk assessment approaches and decision-support systems will enhance the capacity of decision makers in the coastal zone—as well as other sectors—to respond effectively to climate change.

how climate change unfolds. They can also help to identify sectors, regions, resources, and populations that are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate considered in the context of changes in related human and environmental systems. Finally, scientific research can assist adaptation planning by helping to develop, assess, and improve actions that are taken to adapt, and by identifying barriers to adaptation and options to overcome those barriers. Indeed, many of the chapters in Part II of the report identified vulnerability and adaptation analyses, developing the scientific capacity to perform such analyses, and developing and improving adaptation options as key research needs. Table 4.3 lists some of these needs.

TABLE 4.3 Examples of Research Needs Related to Vulnerability and Adaptation (from Part II )

• Expand the ability to identify and assess vulnerable coastal regions and populations and to develop and assess adaptation strategies, including barriers to their implementation.

• Assess food security and vulnerability of food production and distribution systems to climate change impacts, and develop adaptation approaches.

• Develop and improve technologies, management strategies, and institutions to enhance adaptation to climate change in agriculture and fisheries.

• Develop vulnerability assessments and integrative management approaches and technologies to respond effectively to changes in water resources.

• Assess vulnerabilities of ecosystems and ecosystem services to climate change.

• Assess current and projected health risks associated with climate change and develop effective, efficient, and fair adaptation measures.

• Assess the vulnerability of cities and other parts of the built environment to climate change, and develop methods for adapting.

• Advance understanding of how climate change will affect transportation systems and how to reduce vulnerability to these impacts.

• Develop improved vulnerability assessments for regions of importance in terms of military operations and infrastructure.

Characteristics of Vulnerability and Adaptation Analyses

Vulnerability and adaptation analyses can be performed in many contexts and have a wide range of uses. In general, vulnerability analyses assess exposure to and impacts from a disturbance, as well as sensitivity to these impacts and the capacity to reduce or adapt to the negative consequences of the disturbance. These analyses can then be used by decision makers to help decide where, how much, and in what ways to intervene in human or environmental systems to reduce vulnerability, enhance resilience, or improve efficient resource management (Eakin et al., 2009; Turner, 2009). In the context of climate change, vulnerability analyses seek to evaluate and estimate the harm to populations, ecosystems, and resources that might result from changes in climate, and to provide useful information for decision makers seeking to deal with these changes (Füssel and Klein, 2006; Kates et al., 2001; Kelly and Adger, 2000).

A major lesson learned from conventional vulnerability analyses is that they often miss the mark if they focus on a single system or set of interactions—for example, a certain population or ecosystem in isolation—rather than considering the larger system in which people and ecosystems are embedded (O’Brien and Leichenko, 2000; Turner et al., 2003a). The Hurricane Katrina disaster ( Box 4.3 ) illustrates the importance of interactions among the human and environmental components in influencing vulnerability: land and water management decisions interacted with environmental, social,

and economic dynamics to make the people and ecosystems of New Orleans and surrounding areas particularly vulnerable to storm surges, with tragic results.

As recognition has grown that vulnerability should be assessed in a wider context, attention has increasingly turned to integrated approaches focused on coupled human-environment systems. Such analyses consider both the natural characteristics and the human and social characteristics of a system, evaluate the consequences of climate change and other stresses acting on the integrated system, and explore the potential actions that could be taken to reduce the negative impacts of these consequences, including the trade-offs among efforts to reduce vulnerability, enhance resilience, or improve adaptive capacity (see Figure 4.1 ) (Eakin and Luers, 2006; Kasperson et al., 2009; Turner et al., 2003a). Integrated approaches that allow the evaluation of the causal structure of vulnerabilities (i.e., the long-term drivers and more immediate causes of differential exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) can help identify the resources and barriers that can aid or constrain implementation of adaptation options, including

FIGURE 4.1 A framework for analyzing vulnerabilities, focusing on a coupled human-environment system in which vulnerability and response depend on both socioeconomic and human capital as well as natural resources and changes in the environment. From left to right, the figure includes the stresses on the coupled system, the degree to which those stresses are felt by the system, and the conditions that shape the ability of the system to adapt. SOURCE: Kasperson et al. (2009), adapted from Turner et al. (2003a).

The Mississippi River, especially in and around New Orleans, has been intensively engineered to control flooding and provide improved access for ships to the port of New Orleans. These hydraulic works significantly reduce the river’s delivery of sediments to the delta between the city and the Gulf of Mexico, and thus the land-building processes that would otherwise offset the gradual subsidence and erosion of the delta. In addition, the construction of channels and levees and other changes in the lower delta have affected vegetation, especially the health of cypress swamps. Together, these changes in elevation and vegetation have weakened the capacity of the lower delta to serve as a buffer to storm surges from the Gulf of Mexico.

Various assessments of the condition of the lower Mississippi Delta—which together form a quasi-integrated vulnerability study—revealed that in the event of a direct hurricane strike, the vegetation and land areas south of New Orleans were insufficient to protect the city from large storm surges, and also that various hydraulic works would serve to funnel flood waters to parts of the city (Costanza et al., 2006; Day et al., 2007). Despite this knowledge, little was done to reduce the region’s vulnerabilities prior to 2005. When Hurricane Katrina struck in late August of that year, the human-induced changes in the region’s hydrology, vegetation, and land-building processes, together with the failure to maintain adequate protective structures around New Orleans, resulted in extensive flooding of the city and surrounding area over the following week (see below). This, combined with a lack of institutional preparedness and other social factors, led to a well-documented human disaster, especially for the poorest sections of the city (Costanza et al., 2006; Day et al., 2007; Kates et al., 2006).

While climate change may or may not have contributed to the Katrina disaster (see for a discussion of how climate change might influence the frequency or intensity of hurricanes and other storms), it does illustrate how scientific analysis can help identify vulnerabilities. The Katrina disaster also illustrates how scientific analyses alone are not sufficient to ensure an effective response.

ecological, cognitive, social, cultural, political, economic, legal, institutional, and infrastructural hurdles (e.g., Adger et al., 2009a,b). Integrated vulnerability analyses also allow improved understanding and identification of areas in which climate change works in combination with other disturbances or decisions (e.g., land-management practices) to increase or decrease vulnerability (Cutter et al., 2000; Luers et al., 2003; Turner et al., 2003b).

Challenges of Analyzing Vulnerability

Because of the complexity of interactions within and the variance among coupled human-environment systems, integrated vulnerability and adaptation analyses often rely

on place-based (local and regional) assessments for decision making (e.g., Cutter et al., 2000; O’Brien et al., 2004; Turner et al., 2003b; Watson et al., 1997). However, with few notable exceptions (e.g., Clark et al., 1998; Cutter et al., 2000), there is little empirical research on the vulnerability of places, communities, economies, and ecological systems in the United States to climate change, nor is there much empirically grounded understanding of the range of adaptation options and associated constraints (Moser, 2009a; NRC, 2010a).

The development of common metrics and frameworks for vulnerability and adaptation assessments is needed to assist cross-sectoral and interregional comparison and learning. While some research has focused on useful outputs for decision making and adaptation planning (Luers et al., 2003; Moss et al., 2002; Polsky et al., 2007;

Schmidtlein et al., 2008), developing comparative metrics has been challenging due to a lack of baseline data and insufficient monitoring; difficulty in measuring critical and dynamic social, cultural, and environmental variables across scales and regions; limitations in accounting for the indirect impacts of adaptation measures; and uncertainties regarding changes in climate variability, especially changes in the frequency or severity of extreme events, which often dominate vulnerability (Eakin and Luers, 2006; NRC, 2010a; O’Brien et al., 2004).

Assessing adaptive capacity has also been difficult because of its latent character; that is, although capacity can be characterized, it can only be “measured” after it has been realized or mobilized. Hence, adaptive capacity can often only be assessed based on assumptions about different factors that might facilitate or constrain response and action (Eakin and Luers, 2006; Engle and Lemos, 2010) or through the use of model projections. Progress here will rely on improved understanding of human behavior relevant to adaptation; institutional barriers to adaptation; political and social acceptability of adaptation options; their economic implications; and technological, infrastructure, and policy challenges involved in making certain adaptations.

THEME 4: RESEARCH TO SUPPORT STRATEGIES FOR LIMITING CLIMATE CHANGE

Decisions about how to limit the magnitude of climate change, by how much, and by when demand input from research activities that span the physical, biological, and social science disciplines as well as engineering and public health. In addition to assessing the feasibility, costs, and potential consequences of different options and objectives, research is critical for developing new and improving existing technologies, policies, goals, and strategies for reducing GHG emissions. Scientific research, monitoring, and assessment activities can also assist in the ongoing evaluation of the effectiveness and unintended consequences of different actions or set of actions as they are taken—which is critical for supporting adaptive risk management and iterative decision making (see Box 3.1 ). This section highlights some pressing research needs related to efforts to limit the magnitude of future climate change.

Commonly discussed strategies for limiting climate change (see Figure 4.2 ) include reducing energy consumption, for instance by improving energy efficiency or by reducing demand for energy-intensive goods and services; reducing emissions of GHGs from energy production and use, industrial processes, agriculture, or other human activities; capturing CO 2 from power plants and industrial processes, or directly from the atmosphere, and sequestering it in geological formations; and increasing CO 2

FIGURE 4.2 The chain of factors that determine how much CO 2 accumulates in the atmosphere. The blue boxes represent factors that can potentially be influenced to affect the outcomes in the purple circles. SOURCE: NRC (2010c).

uptake by the oceans and land surface. There is also increasing interest in solar radiation management and other geoengineering approaches (see Chapters 9 , 14 , and 15 ). While much is known about some of these strategies, others are not well understood, and there are many scientific research needs related to the development, improvement, implementation, and evaluation of virtually all technologies, policies, and other approaches for limiting climate change.

Setting goals for limiting the magnitude of climate change involves ethical and value questions that cannot be answered by scientific analysis. However, scientific research can help inform such efforts by providing information about the feasibility and potential implications of specific goals. The companion report Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (NRC, 2010c) suggests that the U.S. goal be framed in terms of a cumulative budget for GHG emissions over a set time period. The report does not recommend a specific budget goal, but it examines a “representative” budget in the range of 170 to 200 Gt CO 2 -eq 2 for the period 2012 to 2050. 3 As the Limiting report notes, reaching a goal in this range will be easier and less costly overall if actions to limit GHG emissions are undertaken sooner rather than later. It will also require pursuing multiple emissions-reduction strategies across a range of sectors, as well as continued research and development aimed at creating new emissions-reduction opportunities. Finally, to support adaptive risk management and iterative decision making with re-

	Gt CO -eq indicates gigatons (or billion tons) of CO equivalent emissions; this metric converts emissions of other GHGs to an equivalent concentration of CO .
	This range was derived from recent integrated assessment modeling exercises carried out by the Energy Modeling Forum ( ).

spect to emissions reductions or other climate goals, scientific research will be needed to monitor and improve implementation approaches and to evaluate the potential trade-offs, co-benefits, and unintended consequences of different strategies, as well as the interaction of multiple approaches working in concert. These and other examples of research needs for supporting actions to limit climate change are listed in Table 4.4 .

The challenge of limiting climate change also engages many of the other research themes identified in this chapter. For example, understanding and comparing the full effects of various energy technologies or climate policies (including their comparative benefits, costs, risks, and distributional effects) typically requires an integration of climate models with energy and economic models ( Theme 7 ), which in turn are based on fundamental understanding of the climate system ( Theme 1 ) and human systems

TABLE 4.4 Examples of Research Needs Related to Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change (from Part II )

• Advance the development, deployment, and adoption of energy and transportation technologies that reduce GHG emissions.

• Develop and evaluate strategies for promoting the use of less-emission-intensive modes of transportation.

• Characterize and quantify the contributions of urban areas to both local and global changes in climate, and develop and test approaches for limiting these contributions.

• Continue to support efforts to improve energy efficiency in all sectors and develop a better understanding of the obstacles to improved efficiency.

• Improve understanding of behavioral and sociological factors related to the adoption of new technologies, policies, and practices.

• Develop and improve integrated approaches for evaluating energy services in a systems context that accounts for a broad range of societal and environmental concerns, including climate change.

• Develop and improve technologies, management strategies, and institutions to reduce net GHG emissions from agriculture, while maintaining or enhancing food production potential.

• Assess the potential of land, freshwater, and ocean ecosystems to increase net uptake of CO2 (and other GHGs) and develop approaches that could take advantage of this potential without major adverse consequences.

• Improve understanding of links between air quality and climate change and develop strategies that can limit the magnitude of climate change while improving air quality.

• Improve understanding of the potential efficacy and unintended consequences of solar radiation management approaches and direct air capture of CO , provided that this research does not detract from other important research areas.

• Establish and maintain monitoring systems capable of supporting evaluations of actions and strategies taken to limit the magnitude of future climate change, including systems that can verify compliance with international GHG emissions-reduction agreements.

( Theme 2 ), as well as the observations ( Theme 6 ) that underpin such understanding. Similarly, setting and evaluating goals and policies for limiting the magnitude of future climate change involves decision-making processes at a variety of scales that would benefit from decision-support tools that aid in handling uncertainty and understanding complex value trade-offs ( Theme 5 ). These decisions would similarly benefit from integrated analyses or linked “end-to-end” models ( Theme 7 ) of how policies and other actions influence emissions, how the climate system and related environmental systems will respond to these changes in emissions, and how human and natural systems will be affected by all of these changes—all of which again depend critically on observations ( Theme 6 ). Thus, while the following subsections describe a number of key research needs related to limiting the magnitude of future climate change, progress in many other research areas will also be needed.

Developing New Technologies

Efforts to reduce transportation- and energy-related GHG emissions focus on reducing total energy demand (through, for example, conservation or changes in consumption patterns); improving energy efficiency; reducing the GHG intensity of the energy supply (by using energy sources that emit fewer or no GHGs); and direct capture and sequestration of CO 2 during or after the combustion of fossil fuels (see Figure 4.2 and Chapters 13 and 14 ). The strategy of reducing demand is discussed earlier (under Theme 2 : Human Behavior and Institutions). Technology development is directed primarily toward the other three strategies: efficiency, lower carbon intensity, and carbon capture and storage.

Numerous scientific and engineering disciplines contribute to the development and implementation of energy technology options: the physical, biological, and engineering sciences, for example, are all critical for the development of new technologies, while the social sciences play a key role in both technology development and technology deployment and adoption. In many cases, these diverse disciplines need to work together to evaluate, improve, and expand energy technology options. A coordinated strategy for promoting and integrating energy-related research is needed to ensure the most efficient use of investments among these disciplines and activities.

A number of reports (e.g., Technology and Transformation [NRC, 2009d] and the Strategic Plan of the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program [DOE, 2009c]) have suggested that priority areas for strategic investment in the energy sector should include energy end use and infrastructure, sustainable energy supply, carbon sequestration, and reduction of non-CO 2 GHG emissions. These are discussed in Chapter 14 . In the transpor-

tation sector, key research and development topics include vehicle efficiency, vehicles that run on electricity or non-petroleum-based transportation fuels, and technologies and policies that could reduce travel demand (including, for example, communication technologies like video conferencing). Chapter 13 includes additional discussion on these topics.

Technology developments in the energy and transportation sector are interrelated. For example, widespread adoption of batteries and fuel cells would switch the main source of transportation energy from petroleum to electricity, but this switch will only result in significant GHG emissions reductions if the electricity sector can provide low- and no-GHG electricity on a large scale. This and other codependencies between the energy and transportation sectors underscore the need for an integrated, holistic national approach to limit the magnitude of future climate change as well as related research investments. Widespread adoption of new transportation or energy technologies would also demand significant restructuring of the nation’s existing transportation and energy infrastructure, and scientific and engineering research will play an important role in optimizing that design.

As described in Chapter 12 , urban design presents additional opportunities for limiting climate change. The design of urban developments can, for example, reduce the GHG “footprints” of buildings and the level of demand they create for motorized travel. However, the success of new urban and building designs will depend on better understanding of how technology design, social and economic considerations, and attractiveness to potential occupants can be brought together in the cultural contexts where the developments will occur. Research is also needed to consider the implication of new designs for human vulnerability to climate change as well as other environmental changes.

Finally, as discussed in Chapter 10 , there are a number of potential options for reducing GHG emissions from the agricultural, fisheries, and aquaculture sectors through new technologies or management strategies. Development of new fertilizers and fertilizer management strategies that reduce emissions of N 2 O is one area of interest—one that may also yield benefits in terms of agricultural contributions to other forms of pollution. Reducing CH 4 emissions through changes in rice technologies or ruminant feed technologies are two additional areas of active research. Further research is needed in these and other areas, and also on the effectiveness, costs and benefits, and perceptions of farmers, fish stock managers, and consumers when considering implementation of new technologies in these sectors.

Facilitating Adoption of Technologies

There are a number of barriers to the adoption of technologies that could potentially reduce GHG emissions. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently suspended Energy Star certification for programmable thermostats because it was unable to show that they save energy in actual use (EPA, 2009a). Similar difficulties could be in store for “smart meters,” which are promoted as devices that will allow households to manage energy use to save money and reduce emissions, but which are often designed mainly for the information needs of utility companies rather than consumers. Research on improved designs of these and other types of monitoring and control equipment could help reduce energy use by helping users operate homes, motor vehicles, and commercial and industrial facilities more efficiently.

There are similar opportunities for improved energy efficiency through behavioral change. For example, U.S. households could significantly reduce their GHG emissions (and save money) by adopting more energy-efficient driving behaviors and by properly maintaining automobiles and home heating and cooling systems (Dietz et al., 2009b). Research on behavioral change suggests that a good portion of this potential could actually be achieved, but further analysis is needed to develop and assess specific strategies, approaches, and incentives.

In general, barriers to technology adoption have received only limited research attention (e.g., Gardner and Stern, 1996; NRC, 2005a; Pidgeon et al., 2003). Such research can identify barriers to faster adoption of technologies and develop and test ways to overcome these barriers through, for example, better technological design, policies for facilitating adoption, and practices for addressing public concerns. This research can also develop more realistic estimates of technology penetration rates given existing barriers and assess the perceived social and environmental consequences of technology use, some of which constitute important barriers to or justifications for adoption. Finally, the gap between technological potential and what is typically accomplished might be reduced by integrating knowledge from focused, problem-solving research on adoption of new technologies and practices (e.g., Stern et al., 2009, in press).

Institutions and Decision Making

The 20th century saw immense social and cultural changes, many of which—such as changes in living patterns and automobile use—have had major implications for climate change. Many societal and cultural changes can be traced to the confluence of individual and organizational decision making, which is shaped by institutions that reward some actions and sanction others, and by technologies. New institutions, such

as GHG emissions trading systems, voluntary certification systems for energy-efficient building design, bilateral international agreements for emissions reduction, agreements on emissions monitoring, and carbon offset markets, are critical components of most of the plans that have been proposed to limit human GHG emissions during the next few decades (see Theme 2 above and also the companion reports Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change [NRC, 2010c] and Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change [NRC, 2010b]). Many such mechanisms are already in operation, and these constitute natural experiments, but the scientific base for evaluating these experiments and designing effective institutions is limited (see, e.g., Ostrom, 2010; Prakash and Potoski, 2006; Tietenberg, 2002). Institutional design would likely be enhanced by more systematic research to evaluate past and current efforts, compare different institutional approaches for reaching the same goals, and develop and pilot-test new institutional options.

A large number of individual, community, and organizational decisions have a substantial effect on GHG emissions and land use change as well as on vulnerability to climate change. Many of these decisions are not currently made with much or any consideration of climate change. For example, individual and household food choices, the layout of communities, and the design of supply chains all have effects on climate. Understanding social and cultural changes is important for projecting future climate change, and, in some cases, these changes may provide substantial leverage points for reducing climate change. Thus, enhanced understanding of the complex interplay of social, cultural, and technological change is critical to any strategy for limiting future climate change.

Geoengineering Approaches

Available evidence suggests that avoiding serious consequences from climate change poses major technological and policy challenges. If new technologies and institutions are insufficient to achieve critical emissions-reduction targets, or if a “climate emergency” emerges, decision makers may consider proposals to manage Earth’s climate directly. Such efforts, often referred to as geoengineering approaches, encompass two very different categories of approaches: carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM). Two proposals for CDR—iron fertilization in the ocean and direct air capture—are discussed briefly in Chapters 9 and 14 , respectively. As noted in Chapter 2 and discussed in greater detail in Chapter 15 , little is currently known about the efficacy or potential unintended consequences of SRM approaches, particularly how to approach difficult ethical and governance questions. Therefore, research is needed to better understand the feasibility of different geoengi-

neering approaches; the potential consequences (intended and unintended) of such approaches on different human and environmental systems; and the related physical, ecological, technical, social, and ethical issues, including research that could inform societal debates about what would constitute a “climate emergency” and on governance systems that could facilitate whether, when, and how to intentionally intervene in the climate system. It is important that such research not distract or take away from other important research areas, including research on understanding the climate system and research on “conventional” strategies for limiting the magnitude of climate change and adapting to its impacts.

THEME 5: EFFECTIVE INFORMATION AND DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEMS

Global climate changes are taking place within a larger context of vast and ongoing social and environmental changes. These include the globalization of markets and communication, continued growth in human population, land use change, resource degradation, and biodiversity loss, as well as persistent armed conflict, poverty, and hunger. There are also ongoing changes in cultural, governance, and economic conditions, as well as in technologies, all of which have substantial implications for human well-being. Thus, decision makers in the United States and around the world need to balance climate-related choices and goals with other social, economic, and environmental objectives (Burger et al., 2009; Lindseth, 2004; Schreurs, 2008), as well as issues of fairness and justice (Page, 2008; Roberts and Parks, 2007; Vanderheiden, 2008) and questions of risk (Bulkeley, 2001; Jacques, 2006; Lorenzoni and Pidgeon, 2006; Lubell et al., 2007; Vogler and Bretherton, 2006), all while taking account of a changing context for those decisions. Accordingly, in addition to climate and climate-related information, decision makers need information about the current state of human systems and their environment, as well as an appreciation of the plausible future outcomes and net effects that may result from their policy decisions. They also need to consider how their decisions and actions could interact with other environmental and economic policy goals, both in and outside their areas of responsibility.

The research needs highlighted in this report are intended to both improve fundamental understanding of and support effective decision making about climate change. As explored in the companion report Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (NRC, 2010b), there is still much to be learned about the best ways of deploying science to support decision making. Indeed, available research suggests that, all too often, scientists’ efforts to provide information are of limited practical value because effective decision-support systems are lacking (NRC, 2009g). Scientific research on decision-support models, processes, and tools can help improve these systems.

TABLE 4.5 Examples of Scientific Research Needs Pertaining to Decision Support in the Context of Climate Change (from Part II )

• Develop a more comprehensive and integrative understanding of factors that influence decision making.

• Improve knowledge and decision-support capabilities for all levels of governance in response to the challenges associated with sea level rise.

• Develop effective decision-support tools and approaches for decision making under uncertainty, especially when multiple governance units may be involved, for water resource management, food and fiber production issues, urban and human health issues, and other key sectors.

• Develop protocols, institutions, and technologies for monitoring and verifying compliance with international climate agreements.

• Measure and evaluate public attitudes and test communication approaches that most effectively inform and engage the public in climate-related decision making.

Effective decision support also requires interactive processes involving both scientists and decision makers. Such processes can inform decision makers about anticipated changes in climate, help scientists understand key decision-making needs, and work to build mutual understanding, trust, and cooperation—for example, in the design of decision tools and processes that make sense both scientifically and in the actual decision-making context. Table 4.5 provides a list of the related scientific research needs that emerge from the chapters in Part II of the report.

Decision Processes

Even when viable technologies or actions that could be effective in limiting the magnitude or adapting to the impacts of climate change exist, and appropriate institutions and policies to facilitate their implementation or adoption are in place (see Themes 2 , 3 , and 4 ), success can depend strongly on decision-making processes in populations or organizations (NRC, 2005a, 2008h). One of the major contributions the social sciences can make to advancing the science of climate change is in the understanding, development, assessment, and improvement of these decision-making processes. Scientific research can, for example, help identify the information that decision makers need, devise effective and broadly acceptable decision-making processes and decision-support mechanisms, and enhance learning from experience. Specific research agendas for the science of decision support are available in a number of other reports (NRC, 2009g, 2010b), and other sections of this chapter describe some of the tools that have been or could be developed to inform or assist decision makers in their deliberations

(for example, vulnerability and adaptation analyses of coupled human environmental systems, which are described in Theme 3 ).

One of the most important and well-studied approaches to decision making is deliberation with analysis (also called analytic deliberation or linked analysis and deliberation). Deliberation with analysis is an iterative process that begins with the many participants in a decision working together to define a decision problem and then to identify (1) options to consider and (2) outcomes and criteria that are relevant for evaluating those options. Typically, participants work with experts to generate and interpret decision-relevant information and then revisit the objectives and choices based on that information. This model was developed in the broad context of environmental risks (NRC, 1996) and has been elaborated in the context of climate-related decision making (NRC, 1999b, 2009g)

The deliberation with analysis approach allows repeated structured interactions among the public, decision makers, and scientists that can help the scientific community understand the information needs of and uses by decision makers, and appreciate the opportunities and constraints of the institutional, material, and organizational contexts under which stakeholders make decisions (Lemos, 2008; Rayner et al., 2005; Tribbia and Moser, 2008). It also helps decision makers and other stakeholders better understand and trust the science being produced. While research on deliberation with analysis has provided a general framework that has proven effective in local and regional issues concerning ecosystem, watershed, and natural resource management, more research is needed to determine how this approach might be employed for national policy decisions or international decision making around climate change (NRC, 1996, 2005a, 2007a, 2008h).

Effective Decision-Support Systems

A decision-support system includes the individuals, organizations, networks, and institutions that develop decision-relevant knowledge, as well as the mechanisms to share and disseminate that knowledge and related products and services (NRC, 2009g). Agricultural or marine extension services, with all their strengths and weaknesses, are an important historical example of a decision-support system that has helped make scientific knowledge relevant to and available for practical decision making in the context of specific goals. The recent report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g) identified a set of basic principles of effective decision support that are applicable to the climate change arena: “(1) begin with users’ needs; (2) give priority to process over products; (3) link information producers and users; (4) build connec-

tions across disciplines and organizations; (5) seek institutional stability; and (6) design processes for learning.”

Effective decision-support systems work to both guide research toward decision relevance and link scientific information with potential users. Such systems will thus play an important role in improving the linkages between climate science and decision making called for both in this report and in many previous ones (e.g., Cash et al., 2003; NRC, 1990a, 1999b, 2009g). Research on the use of seasonal climate forecasts exemplifies current understanding of decision-support systems (see Box 4.4 ).

The basic principles of effective decision support are reasonably well known (see, e.g.,

For the past 20 years, the application of seasonal climate forecasts for agricultural, disaster relief, and water management decision making has yielded important lessons regarding the creation of climate knowledge systems for action in different parts of the world at different scales (Beller-Sims et al., 2008; Gilles and Valdivia, 2009; NRC, 1999b; Pagano et al., 2002; Vogel and O’Brien, 2006). Successful application of seasonal climate forecasting tends to follow a systems approach where forecasts are contextualized to the decision situation and embedded within an array of other information relevant for risk management. For example, in Australia, users and producers of seasonal climate forecasts have created knowledge systems for action in which the forecasts are part of a broader range of knowledge that informs farmers’ decision making (Cash and Buizer, 2005; Lemos and Dilling, 2007). In the U.S. Southwest, potential flooding from the intense 1997-1998 El Niño was averted in part because the 3- to 9-month advance forecasts were tailored to the needs of water managers and integrated into water supply outlooks (Pagano et al., 2002).

The application of seasonal climate forecasts is not always perfect. Seasonal forecasts have proven useful in certain U.S. regions directly affected by El Niño events but may have limited predictive skill outside those regions and outside the extremes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle (see ). There is evidence that too much investment in climate forecasting may crowd out more sustainable alternatives to manage risk or even harm some stakeholders (Lemos and Dilling, 2007). For example, even under high uncertainty, a forecast of El Niño and the prospect of a weak fishing season give companies in Peru an incentive to accelerate seasonal layoffs of workers (Broad et al., 2002). More recent efforts to apply the lessons from seasonal climate forecasting to inform climate adaptation policy argue for the integration of climate predictions within broader decision contexts (Johnston et al., 2004; Klopper et al., 2006; Meinke et al., 2009). In such cases, rather than “perfect” forecasts, the best strategy for supporting decision making is to use integrated assessments and participatory approaches to link climate information to information on other stressors (Vogel et al., 2007).

NRC, 2009g). However, they need to be applied differently in different places, with different decision makers, and in different decision contexts. Determining how to apply these basic principles is at the core of the science of decision support—the science needed for designing information products, knowledge networks, and institutions that can turn good information into good decision support (NRC, 2009g). The base in fundamental science for designing more effective decision-support systems lies in the decision sciences and related fields of scholarship, including cognitive science, communications research, and the full array of traditional social and behavioral science disciplines.

Expanded research on decision support would enhance virtually all the other research called for in this report by improving the design and function of systems that seek to make climate science findings useful in adaptive management of the risks of climate change. The main research needs in this area are discussed in Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g), Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (NRC, 2010b), and several other studies (e.g., NRC, 2005a, 2008g). A recent review of research needs for improved environmental decision making (NRC, 2005a) emphasized the need for research to identify the kinds of decision-support activities and products that are most effective for various purposes and audiences. The report recommended studies focused on assessing decision quality, exploring decision makers’ evaluations of decision processes and outcomes, and improving formal tools for decision support.

The key research needs for the science of decision support fall into the following five areas (NRC, 2009g):

Information needs. Research is needed to identify the kinds of information that would add greatest value for climate-related decision making and to understand information needs as seen by decision makers.

Communicating risk and uncertainty. People commonly have difficulty making good sense and use of information that is probabilistic and uncertain. Research on how people understand uncertain information about risks and on better ways to provide it can improve decision-support processes and products.

Decision-support processes. Research is needed on processes for providing decision support, including the operation of networks and intermediaries between the producers and users of information for decision support. This research should include attention to the most effective channels and organizational structures to use for delivering information for decision support; the ways such information can be made to fit into individual, organizational, and institutional decision routines; the factors that determine whether potentially useful information is actually used; and ways to overcome barriers to the use of decision-relevant information.

Decision-support products. Research is needed to design and apply decision tools, data analysis platforms, reports, and other products that convey user-relevant information in ways that enhance users’ understanding and decision quality. These products may include models and simulations, mapping and visualization products, websites, and applications of techniques for structuring decisions, such as cost-benefit analysis, multiattribute decision analysis, and scenario analysis.

Decision-support “experiments.” Efforts to provide decision support for various decisions and decision makers are already under way in many cities, counties, and regions. These efforts can be treated as a massive national experiment that can, if data are carefully collected, be analyzed to learn which strategies are attractive, which ones work, why they work, and under what conditions. Research on these experiments can build knowledge about how information of various kinds, delivered in various formats, is used in real-world settings; how knowledge is transferred across communities and sectors; and many other aspects of decision-support processes.

THEME 6: INTEGRATED CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEMS

Nearly all of the research called for in this report either requires or would be considerably improved by a comprehensive, coordinated, and continuing set of observations—physical, biological, and social—about climate change, its impacts, and the consequences (both intended and unintended) of efforts to limit its magnitude or adapt to its impacts ( Table 4.6 ). Extensive, robust, and well-calibrated observing systems would support the research that underpins the scientific understanding of how and why climate is changing, provide information about the efficacy of actions and strategies taken to limit or adapt to climate change, and enable the routine dissemination of climate and climate-related information and products to decision makers. Unfortunately, many of the needed observational assets are either underdeveloped or in decline. In addition, a variety of institutional factors—such as distributed responsibility across many different entities—complicate the development of a robust and integrated climate observing system.

The breadth of information needed to support climate-related decision making implies an observational strategy that includes both remotely sensed and in situ observations and that provides information about changes across a broad range of natural and human systems. To be useful, these observations must be

Sustained for decades to separate long-term trends from short-term variability;

Well calibrated and consistent through time to ensure that observed changes are real;

Spatially extensive to account for variability across scales and to ensure that assessments of change are not overly influenced by local phenomena;

Supported by a robust data management infrastructure that supports effective data archiving, accesses, and stewardship; and

Sustained by defined roles and responsibilities across the federal government as well as state and local governments, the research community, private businesses, and the international community.

Space-Based Platforms

Our understanding of the climate system and other important human and environmental systems has benefitted significantly through the use of satellite observations over the past 30 years (NRC, 2008c). For example, data from the Earth Observing System (EOS) series of satellites deployed in the late 1990s and early 2000s provide critical input into process and climate models that have provided key insights into Artic sea ice decline, sea level rise, changes in freshwater systems, ozone changes over Antarctica, changes in solar activity, ocean ecoystem change, and changes in land use, to name just a few. Box 4.5 provides an example of a key satellite-based measurement that has promoted enhanced understanding of the physical climate system and how it is changing over time.

TABLE 4.6 Examples of Science Needs Related to Observations and Observing Systems (see Part II for additional details)

• Extend and expand long-term observations of atmosphere and ocean temperatures; sea level; ice extent, mass, and volume; and other critical physical climate system variables.

• Extend and expand long-term observations of hydrologic changes and related changes relevant for water management decision making.

• Expand observing and monitoring systems for ecosystems, agriculture and fisheries, air and water quality, and other critical impact areas.

• Improve observations that allow analysis of multiple stressors, including changes in climate, land use changes, pollutant deposition, invasions of nonnative species, and other human-caused changes.

• Develop improved observations and monitoring capabilities to support vulnerability assessments of coupled human-environment systems at the scale of cities, states, nations, and regions, and for tracking and analyzing human health and well-being.

• Develop improved observations for vulnerability assessments related to military operations and infrastructure.

• Establish long-term monitoring systems that are capable of monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of actions taken to limit or adapt to climate change.

• Develop observations, protocols, and technologies for monitoring and verifying compliance with international emissions-reduction agreements.

Ocean altimetry measurements provide an illustrative example of how satellites have advanced scientific understanding of climate and climate change. Sea level changes are a fundamental indicator of changes in global climate and have profound socioeconomic implications (see ). Variations in sea level also provide insight into natural climate processes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle (see ) and have the potential to inform a broad array of other climate science disciplines including ocean science, cryospheric science, hydrology, and climate modeling applications (see, e.g., Rahmstorf et al., 2007).

Prior to the satellite era, tide gauge measurements were the primary means of monitoring sea level change. However, their limited spatial distribution and ambiguous nature (e.g., vertical land motion can cause erroneous signals that mimic the effects of climate change at some sites) limited their use for climate research. With the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992, satellite altimeter measurements with sufficient accuracy and orbital characteristics to monitor small (on the order of millimeters per year) sea level changes became available (Cazenave and Nerem, 2004). Jason-1, launched at the end of 2001, continued the TOPEX/Poseidon measurements in the same orbit, including a critical 6-month overlap that allowed intercalibration to ensure the continuity of records. It is important to note that tide gauges remain a critical component of the sea level observing system, providing an independent source of data in coastal areas that can be used to calibrate and interpret satellite data records. The integration of tide gauge and satellite data provides an excellent example of how satellite and surface-based observations are essential complements to one another within an integrated observing system.

Together, the TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 missions have produced a continuous 15-year time series of precisely calibrated measurements of global sea level. These measurements show that sea level rose at an average rate of ~3.5 mm/year (0.14 inches/year) during the TOPEX/Jason-1 period, nearly double the rate inferred from tide gauges over the 20th century (Beckley et al., 2007; Leuliette et al., 2004). Since sea level rise is driven by a combination of ocean warming and shrinking glaciers and ice sheets (see ), these altimetry results are also important for refining and constraining estimates of ocean heat content and ice loss. Another powerful aspect of satellite altimetry is that it provides maps of the spatial variability of the sea level–rise signal (see on facing page), which is valuable for the identification of sea level “fingerprints” associated with climate change (see also Mitrovica et al., 2001). Sea level measurements are also used extensively in ocean reanalysis efforts and short-term climate predictions.

Jason-2, which carries similar but improved instrumentation, was launched in June 2008. By design, Jason-2 overlaps with the Jason-1 mission, thus providing the requisite intercalibration period and securing the continuity of high-accuracy satellite altimetry observations. Funds have been requested

in the President’s 2011 budget to support a 2013 launch of Jason-3, a joint effort between NOAA and EUMETSAT (the European meteorological satellite program), as part of a transition of satellite altimetry from research to “operational” status. Researchers hope to avoid a gap in the satellite record because measurements from tide gauges and other satellite measurements would not be sufficient to accurately determine the bias between the two time series on either side of the gap. It should also be emphasized that ocean altimetry, despite the challenges of ensuring overlap and continuity, is on a much better trajectory than many other important climate observations, as described in the text.

Material in this box is adapted from (NRC, 2008d).

Also called the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2.

FIGURE 4.3 Number of U.S. space-based Earth observation missions (left) and instruments (right) in the current decade. An emphasis on climate and weather is evident, as is a decline in the number of missions near the end of the decade. For the period from 2007 to 2010, missions were generally assumed to operate for 4 years past their nominal lifetimes. SOURCE: NRC (2007c), based on information from NASA and NOAA websites for mission durations.

Over the past decade, a wide range of problems have plagued the maintenance and development of environmental satellites. In response to a request from several federal agencies, the NRC conducted a “decadal survey” in 2004-2006 to generate consensus recommendations from the Earth and environmental science and applications communities regarding a systems approach to space-based (and ancillary) observations. The interim report of the decadal survey (NRC, 2005b) described the national system of environmental satellites as being “at risk of collapse.” That judgment was based on a sharp decline in funding for Earth observation missions and the consequent cancellation, descoping, and delay of a number of critical satellite missions and instruments. An additional concern expressed in the interim report was attracting and training scientists and engineers and providing opportunities for them to exploit new technology and apply new theoretical understanding in the pursuit of both discovery science and high-priority societal applications.

These concerns only increased in the 2 years following the publication of the interim report as additional missions and sensors were cancelled. The final decadal survey report (NRC, 2007c) presented near- and longer-term recommendations to address these troubling trends. The report outlined near-term actions meant to stem the tide of capability deterioration and continue critical data records, as well as forward-looking recommendations to establish a balanced Earth observation program designed to directly address the most urgent societal challenges (see Figure 4.3 ). The final report also noted the lack of clear agency responsibility for sustained research programs and

for transitioning proof-of-concept measurements into sustained measurement systems (see Box 4.6 ).

The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) was created in 1994 to merge various military and civil meteorological and environmental monitoring programs. Unfortunately, by 2005, cost overruns triggered a mandatory

“There is a crisis not only with respect to climate change … but also [with respect to] the absence of a coherent, coordinated federal environmental policy to address the challenges. In the nearest term possible, aging space- and ground-based environmental sensors must be replaced with technologically improved instruments. Beyond replacing aging instruments, there is a need to enhance continuity in the observations, so that policy makers, informed by science, will have the necessary tools to detect trends in important Earth indicators and craft wise and effective long-term policies. However, continuity, or sustained long-term observations, is not an explicitly stated requirement for either the ‘operational’ or ‘research’ space systems that are typically associated with [NOAA] and [NASA] programs, respectively.

The present federal agency paradigm of ‘research operations’ with respect to NASA and NOAA is obsolete and nearly dysfunctional, in spite of best efforts by both agencies. This paradigm currently has NASA developing and demonstrating new observational techniques and measurements deemed useful for prediction or other applications. These are then transitioned to NOAA (or sometimes DOD) and used on a sustained, multi-decadal basis. However, this paradigm is not working for a number of reasons. The two agencies have responsibilities that are in many cases mismatched with their authorities and resources: institutional mandates are inconsistent with agency charters; budgets are not well matched to the needs; agency responsibilities are not clearly defined, and shared responsibilities are supported inconsistently by ad hoc mechanisms for cooperation…. A new paradigm of ‘research operations’ is urgently needed to meet the challenge of vigilant monitoring of all aspects of climate change….

Our ability as a nation to sustain climate observations has been complicated by the fact that no single agency has both the mandate and requisite budget for providing ongoing climate observations, prediction, and services. While interagency collaborations are sometimes valuable, a robust, effective program of Earth observations from space requires specific responsibilities to be clearly assigned to each agency and adequate resources provided to meet these responsibilities.”

Excerpted from testimony by Richard A. Anthes, President of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Past President, American Meteorological Society, and Co-Chair, Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space (2003-2007), before the Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies, Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House of Representatives, March 19, 2009.

review of the NPOESS program, resulting in reductions in the number of planned satellite acquisitions as well as reductions in the instruments carried on each platform—with climate-related sensors suffering the majority of the cuts, in part because of conflicting agency priorities. More recently, there have been several efforts to restore some of the lost sensor capabilities. However, these short-term, stop-gap measures are only designed to preserve the most critical long-term records and do not represent a long-term, comprehensive strategy to observe critical climate and climate-related processes and trends from space (NRC, 2008d). The President’s 2011 budget seeks to restructure the NPOESS program, but details were not available in time to inform the development of this report. An additional blow to the nation’s Earth observing program was the July 2009 launch failure of NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO), which was expected to provide high-resolution satellite-based measurements of CO 2 and other GHGs (NRC, 2009h). The President’s 2011 budget request for NASA includes $170 million for a reflight of the OCO mission, which will be called OCO-2.

Given the global scope of satellite observations and the expense of designing, launching, and operating satellites, the decadal survey (NRC, 2007c) and other reviews call for international coordination as a key component of the nation’s satellite observation strategy. Collaborations with other nations not only save scarce resources for all partners, they also promote scientific collaboration and sharing of ideas among the international scientific community. However, international collaborations come at a cost. Any time partners are involved, control must be shared, and the success of the mission depends critically on the performance of all partners. A successful collaboration also requires assurance that data will be shared and that U.S. scientists are full partners on teams that ensure adequate prelaunch instrument characterization and postlaunch instrument calibration and validation.

Finally, there is a wealth of classified data that have been and continue to be collected by the intelligence community that could potentially provide useful information on understanding the nature and impacts of climate change. Declassified data from the 1960s have already been used for this purpose with great success (Csatho et al., 1999; Joughin et al., 2002; Stokes et al., 2006). More recently, a large amount of sea ice imagery was released for scientific study (NRC, 2009l). Given the importance of the climate change challenge, and the recent struggles of the civilian satellite program, the climate science community should take advantage of such data sets to the extent that they can be made available for scientific purposes.

Ground-Based and In Situ Observations of the Earth System

Ground-based in situ measurements—ranging from thermometer measurements to ecosystem surveys—are the oldest and most diverse type of environmental observations, and they remain a fundamental component of an integrated climate observing system. Over the past 60 years, direct ground-based measurements have been supplemented by airborne in situ measurements, from both aircraft and balloons, and by ground-based, remotely sensed data, such as weather radars and vertical profilers of atmospheric composition. Collectively, these observations span a broad range of instruments and types of information, from instruments initially deployed as part of research experiments to operational networks at the local, state, regional, national, and international levels deployed by a range of public and private institutions. In addition to directly supporting research on the Earth system and specific decision-making needs, these observations are critical for calibrating and validating satellite measurements and for developing and testing climate and Earth system model parameterizations.

There have been significant advances in in situ and ground-based monitoring networks over the past several decades. Examples include the Arctic observing network, the Tropical-Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array constructed primarily to monitor temperature profiles in the upper equatorial Pacific ocean and support predictions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, “Argo” floats that provide dispersed observations of temperature and salinity of the upper ocean, the FLUXNET network of ecosystem carbon exchange with the atmosphere, the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) that provides observations of atmospheric optical properties, and the Atmosphere Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. In addition, there is a wealth of observations from a broad range of public and private systems designed primarily for other purposes—such as wind monitoring for port safety—that could potentially be tapped to supplement existing climate observations and yield new and valuable insights. These systems will have to be integrated and maintained for decades to realize their full potential as components of a climate observing system.

The recent study Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks (NRC, 2009j) discusses the value and challenges of coordinating the wide range of ground-based weather, climate, and climate-related observing systems to create a more integrated system that could be greater than the sum of its individual parts. The report calls for improved coordination across existing public and private networks of in situ observations. However, the number and diversity of entities involved make this a major organizational and governance challenge. If properly developed, an integrated, nationwide network of weather, climate, and related observations

would undoubtedly be a tremendous asset for supporting improved understanding of climate change as well as climate-related decision making.

In addition to maintaining and enhancing observational capacity, research on new methods of observation, such as the miniaturization of instruments for in situ data collection, could both enhance data collection capabilities and lower the often substantial costs associated with data collection systems. To become effective components of an integrated climate observing system, these observational capacities, whether they represent the continuation of existing capabilities or the development of new ones, should be developed with a view toward providing meaningful, accurate, well-calibrated, integrated, and sustained data across a range of climate and climate-related variables.

Observations of Human Systems

Other sections of this chapter highlight the importance of social science research in understanding the causes, consequences, and opportunities to respond to climate change. As with research on the physical and biological components of the climate system, this research depends on the availability of high-quality, long-term, and readily accessible observations of human systems, not only in the United States but also in areas of the world with relevant U.S. interests. Census data, economic productivity and consumption data, data on health and disease patterns, insurance coverage, crop yields, hazards exposure, and public perceptions and preferences are just some of the types of information that can be relevant for developing an improved understanding of human interactions with the climate system and for answering various decision-relevant questions related to the human dimensions of climate change. Socioeconomic data are also critical for linking environmental observations with assessments of climate-related risk, vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity in human systems. As with other types of observations, long time series are needed to monitor changes in the drivers of climate change and trends in resilience and vulnerability. Such observational data are most useful when geocoded (linked to specific locations) and matched (aggregated or downscaled) to scales of interest to researchers and decision makers, and when human and environmental data are collected and archived in ways that facilitate linkages between these data.

Studies conducted in the 1970s and 1980s demonstrate the feasibility of data collection efforts that integrate across the engineering and social sciences to better understand and model energy consumption (Black et al., 1985; Cramer et al., 1984; Harris and Blumstein, 1984; Socolow, 1978). Linkage of data on land-cover change and its social

and economic drivers has also been productive (NRC, 2005c, 2007i). Large-scale social science data collection efforts, ranging from the census to federally funded surveys such as the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the General Social Survey, and the National Election Studies show the feasibility and value of long-term efforts to collect high-quality social data. However, to date there has been no sustained support to collect comparable data at the individual or organizational level on environmentally significant behaviors, such as energy use and GHG emissions. As states and other entities adopt policies to limit GHG emissions, sustained and integrated efforts to collect data on environmentally significant consumption will be extremely helpful for monitoring progress and honing programs and policies.

Likewise, data on the impacts of climate change on human systems and on vulnerability and adaptation of human systems to global environmental changes are critically needed (NRC, 2009g,k). Examples include morbidity and mortality data associated with air and water quality, expanded data sets focusing on household risk-pooling strategies and adaptation options, and data on urban infrastructure vulnerabilities to extreme weather and climate events. Methods that allow aggregation of data from across a range of regions to develop national-scale understanding will sometimes be necessary, but local and regional vulnerability assessments will also be needed, and these depend on both local and appropriately downscaled information (Braden et al., 2009).The potential exists for greater use of remote sensing to develop indicators of vulnerability to various climate-related hazards and of the socioeconomic drivers of climate change. If validated against in situ measurements, such measures can allow for monitoring of human-climate interactions at much finer spatial and temporal scales than is currently feasible with surveys or other in situ measures of human variables.

There is also great potential in the use of mobile communications technology, such as cell and smart phones, as a vehicle for social science research that has fine temporal and spatial scales (Eagle et al., 2009; Raento et al., 2009; Zuwallack, 2009). Many data collection efforts previously undertaken for governmental administrative purposes, business purposes, or social science research not related to climate change could potentially support the research needed for understanding the human aspects of climate change and climate-related decision making, but only if they are geocoded and linked to other data sets. International, longitudinal databases such as the International Forestry and Institutions database (e.g., Chhatre and Agrawal, 2008) also have great potential to serve as a bridge between local, regional, national, and global processes, as well as for assessing the dynamics of change across time and space.

Finally, because most major social and economic databases have been developed

for purposes unrelated to climate change, these data have significant gaps from the perspective of climate science. However, all climate-relevant socioeconomic and other human systems data need not necessarily be held in a single common observing system. They simply need to be inventoried, archived, and made broadly accessible to enable the kinds of integrative analyses that are necessary for the new climate change research. A major effort is needed both to develop appropriate local data collection efforts and to coordinate them into national and global systems. Initial progress can be made by coordination across specific domains and sectors (e.g., coastal vulnerabilities, health vulnerabilities) and across scales so that locally useful information also contributes to larger-scale indicators and vice versa. Data integration is also a critical need. Some of these issues are explored in the next subsection.

Data Assimilation, Analysis, and Management

Data assimilation refers to the combination of disparate observations to provide a comprehensive and internally consistent data set that describes how a system is changing over time. Improvements in data assimilation systems have led directly to substantial improvements in numerical weather prediction over the past several decades by improving the realism of the initial conditions used to run weather forecast models. Improved data assimilation techniques have also led to improved data sets for analyses of climate change.

Climate data records (see NRC, 2004a) are generated by a systematic and ongoing process of climate data integration and reprocessing. Often referred to as reanalysis, the fundamental idea behind such efforts (see, e.g., Kalnay et al., 1996) is to use data assimilation methods to capitalize on the wealth of disparate historical observations and integrate them with newer observations, such as space-based data. Data assimilation, analysis, and reanalysis are also becoming increasingly important for areas other than regional and global atmospheric models, such as ocean models, land models, marine ecosystems, cryosphere models, and atmospheric chemistry models.

Improvements have occurred in all components of data assimilation and reanalysis, including data assimilation models, the quality and quantity of the observations, and methods for statistical interpolation (see, e.g., Daley, 1991; Kalnay, 2002). However, additional advances are needed. For example, data for the ocean, atmosphere, and land are typically assimilated separately in different models and frameworks. Given that these systems are intrinsically coupled on climate time scales, for instance through exchanges of water and energy, coupled data assimilation methodologies are needed to take into account their interactions. Next-generation data assimilation and reanaly-

sis systems should aim to fully incorporate all aspects of the Earth system (and, eventually, human systems) to support integrated understanding and facilitate analyses of coupled human-environment systems.

Finally, and critically, all observing systems and data analysis activities depend on effective data management—including data archiving, stewardship, and access systems. Historically, support for data management has often lagged behind support for initial data collection (NRC, 2007d). As the demand for sustained climate observations is realized and actions are taken to improve, extend, and coordinate observations, there will be an increase in the demands on both technology and human capacity to ensure that the resulting data are securely archived, quality controlled, and made available to a wide range of users (Baker et al., 2007; NRC, 2004a, 2005e, 2007d). Likewise, as data volume and diversity expand new computational approaches as well as greater computing power will be needed to process and integrate the different data sets on a schedule useful for planning responses to climate change. Finally, because some data have the potential for violating personal privacy norms and legal guarantees, proper safeguards must be in place to protect confidentiality.

Toward Integrated Observations and Earth System Analysis

An integrated climate observing system and improved data analysis and data management systems will be needed to support all of the other themes described in this chapter. Regular observations of the Earth system, for example, are needed to improve climate models, monitor climate and climate-related changes, assess the vulnerability of different human and environmental systems to these change, monitor the effectiveness of actions taken to limit the magnitude of climate change, warn about impending tipping points, and inform decision making. However, creating such systems and making the information available in usable formats to a broad range of researchers and decision makers involves a number of formidable challenges, such as improving linkages between human and environmental data, ensuring adequate support for data archiving and management activities, and creating improved tools for data access and dissemination.

An integrated Earth system analysis capability, or the ability to create an accurate, internally consistent, synthesized description of the evolving Earth system, is a key research need identified both in this report and in many previous reports (NRC, 2009k). Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to achieving this capability is the lack of comprehensive, robust, and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system and other related human and environmental systems. Other scientific and technical challenges

include identifying the criteria for optimizing assimilation techniques for different purposes, estimating uncertainties, and meeting user demands for higher spatial resolution.

The NRC report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g) recommends that the federal government “expand and maintain national observation systems to provide information needed for climate decision support. These systems should link existing data on physical, ecological, social, economic, and health variables to each other and develop new data and key indicators as needed” for estimating climate change vulnerabilities and informing responses intended to limit and adapt to climate change. It also notes the need for geocoding existing social and environmental databases; developing methods for aggregating, disaggregating, and integrating such data sets with each other and with climate and other Earth system data; creating new databases to fill critical gaps; supporting modeling and process studies to improve methods for making the data useful; and engaging decision makers in the identification of critical data needs. That study’s recommendations set appropriate strategic directions for an integrated data system. Ultimately, the collection and archiving of data for such a system would need to be evaluated on the basis of potential and actual use in research and decision making.

The recommendations in Chapter 5 provide advice on some steps that can be taken to address these challenges.

THEME 7: IMPROVED PROJECTIONS, ANALYSES, AND ASSESSMENTS

Nearly every scientific challenge associated with understanding and responding to climate change requires an assessment of the interactions among different components of the coupled human-environment system. A wide range of models, tools, and approaches, from quantitative numerical models and analytic techniques to frameworks and processes that engage interdisciplinary research teams and stakeholders, are needed to simulate and assess these interactions. While decisions are ultimately the outcome of individual, group, and political decision-making processes, scientific tools and approaches can aid decision making by systematically incorporating complex information, projecting the consequences of different choices, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating disciplined evaluation of trade-offs as the nation turns its attention to responding to climate change. Table 4.7 lists some of the specific research needs identified in Part II of the report that are related to the development of models, tools, and approaches for improving projections, analyses, and assessments of climate change.

TABLE 4.7 Examples of Science Needs Related to Improving Projections, Analyses, and Assessments of Climate Change (from Part II )

• Continue to develop and use scenarios as a tool for framing uncertainty and risk, understanding human drivers of climate change, forcing climate models, and projecting changes in adaptive capacity and vulnerability.

• Improve model projections of future climate change, especially at regional scales.

• Improve end-to-end models through coordination and linkages among models that connect emissions, changes in the climate system, and impacts on specific sectors.

• Develop tools and approaches for understanding and predicting the impacts of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems and infrastructure.

• Improve models of the response of agricultural crops, fisheries, transportation systems, and other human systems to climate and other environmental changes.

• Develop integrated approaches and analytical frameworks to evaluate the effectiveness and potential unintended consequences of actions taken to respond to climate change, including trade-offs and synergies among various options.

• Explore cross-sector interactions between impacts of and responses to climate change.

• Continue to improve methods for estimating costs, benefits, and cost effectiveness of climate mitigation and adaptation policies, including complex or hybrid policies.

• Develop analyses that examine climate policy from a sustainability perspective, taking account of the full range of effects of climate policy on human and environmental systems, including unintended consequences and equity effects.

The boundaries between various tools and approaches for integrated analysis of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and response options are not rigid; often, a combination of several tools or approaches is needed for improved understanding and to support decision making. This section highlights a few of the integrated tools and approaches that can be used, including

Scenarios of future GHG emissions and other human activities;

Climate and Earth system models;

Process models of ecological functions and ecosystem services;

Integrated assessment approaches, which couple human and environmental systems;

Policy-oriented heuristic models and exercises; and

Process-based decision tools.

This discussion is not intended to be an exhaustive treatment of these approaches—more detailed discussions can be found in Part II of the report and in other reports (e.g., NRC, 2009g)—nor is it intended as a complete list of important tools and ap-

proaches for integrated analysis. Rather, it provides examples of the kinds of approaches that need to be developed, improved, and used more extensively to improve scientific understanding of climate change and make this scientific knowledge more useful for decision making.

Scenario Development

Scenarios help improve understanding of the key processes and uncertainties associated with projections of future climate change. Scenarios are critical for helping decision makers establish targets or budgets for future GHG emissions and devise plans to adapt to the projected impacts of climate change in the context of changes in other human and environmental systems. Scenario development is an inherently interdisciplinary and integrative activity requiring contributions from many different scientific fields as well as processes that link scientific analysis with decision making. Chapter 6 describes some recent scenario development efforts as well as several key outstanding research needs.

Climate Models

Climate models simulate how the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface respond to increasing concentrations of GHGs and other climate drivers that vary over time (see Chapter 6 ). These models are based on numerical representations of fundamental Earth system processes, such as the exchange of energy, moisture, and materials between the atmosphere and the underlying ocean or land surface. Climate models have been critically important for understanding past and current climate change and remain an essential tool for projecting future changes. They have also been steadily increasing in detail, sophistication, and complexity, most notably by improving spatial resolution and incorporating representations of atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemical cycling, and other Earth system processes. These improvements represent an important integrative tool because they allow for the evaluation of feedbacks between the climate system and other aspects of the Earth system.

As discussed in Chapter 6 , there are a number of practical limitations, gaps in understanding, and institutional constraints that limit the ability of climate models to inform climate-related decision making, including the following

The ability to explicitly simulate all relevant climate processes (for example, individual clouds) on appropriate space and time scales;

Constraints on computing resources;

Uncertainties and complexities associated with data assimilation and parameterization;

Lack of a well-developed framework for regional downscaling;

Representing regional modes of variability;

Projecting changes in storm patterns and extreme weather events;

Inclusion of additional Earth system processes, such as ice sheet dynamics and fully interactive ecosystem dynamics;

Ability to simulate certain nonlinear processes, including thresholds, tipping points, and abrupt changes; and

Representing all of the processes that determine the vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability of both natural and human systems.

As discussed in Chapter 6 , climate modelers in the United States and around the world have begun to devise strategies, such as decadal-scale climate predictions, for improving the utility of climate model experiments. These experimental strategies may indeed yield more decision-relevant information, but, given the importance of local- and regional-scale information for planning responses to climate change, continued and expanded investments in regional climate modeling remain a particularly pressing priority. Expanded computing resources and human capital are also needed.

Progress in both regional and global climate modeling cannot occur in isolation. Expanded observations are needed to initialize models and validate results, to develop improved representations of physical processes, and to support downscaling techniques. For example, local- and regional-scale observations are needed to verify regional models or downscaled estimates of precipitation, and expanded ocean observations are needed to support decadal predictions. Certain human actions and activities, including agricultural practices, fire suppression, deforestation, water management, and urban development, can also interact strongly with climate change. Without models that account for such interactions and feedbacks among all important aspects of the Earth system and related human systems, it is difficult to fully evaluate the costs, benefits, trade-offs and co-benefits associated with different courses of action that might be taken to respond to climate change (the next subsection describes modeling approaches that address some of these considerations). An advanced generation of climate models with explicit and improved representations of terrestrial and marine ecosystems, the cryosphere, and other important systems and processes, and with improved representations and linkages to models of human systems and actions, will be as important as improving model resolution for increasing the value and utility of climate and Earth system models for decision making.

Models and Approaches for Integrated Assessments

Integrated assessments combine information and insights from the physical and biological sciences with information and insights from the social sciences (including economics, geography, psychology, and sociology) to provide comprehensive analyses that are sometimes more applicable to decision making than analyses of human or environmental systems in isolation. Integrated assessments—which are done through either formal modeling or through informal linkages among relevant disciplines—have been used to develop insights into the possible effectiveness and repercussions of specific environmental policy choices (including, but not limited to, climate change policy) and to evaluate the impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity of both human and natural systems to a variety of environmental stresses. Several different kinds of integrated assessment approaches are discussed in the paragraphs below.

Integrated Assessment Models

In the context of climate change, integrated assessment models typically incorporate a climate model of moderate or intermediate complexity with models of the economic system (especially the industrial and energy sectors), land use, agriculture, ecosystems, or other systems or sectors germane to the question being addressed. Rather than focusing on precise projections of key system variables, integrated assessment models are typically used to compare the relative effectiveness and implications of different policy measures (see Chapter 17 ). Integrated assessment models have been used, for instance, to understand how policies designed to boost production of biofuels may actually increase tropical deforestation and lead to food shortages (e.g., Gurgel et al., 2007) and how policies that limit CO 2 from land use and energy use together lead to very different costs and consequences than policies that address energy use alone (e.g., Wise et al., 2009a). Another common use of integrated assessments and integrated assessment models is for “impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability” or IAV assessments, which evaluate the impacts of climate change on specific systems or sectors (e.g., agriculture), including their vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and explore the effectiveness of various response options. IAV assessments can aid in vulnerability and adaptation assessments of the sort described in Theme 3 above.

An additional and valuable role of integrated assessment activities is to help decision makers deal with uncertainty. Three basic approaches to uncertainty analysis have been employed by the integrated assessment community: sensitivity analysis, stochastic simulation, and sequential decision making under uncertainty (DOE, 2009b; Weyant, 2009). The aim of these approaches is not to overcome or reduce uncertainty,

but rather to characterize it and help decision makers make informed and robust decisions in the face of uncertainty (Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti, 2002), for instance by adopting an adaptive risk-management approach to decision making (see Box 3.1 ). Analytic characterizations of uncertainty can also help to determine the factors or processes that dominate the total uncertainty associated with a specific decision and thus potentially help identify research priorities. For example, while uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future human energy production and consumption are widely appreciated, improved methods for characterizing the uncertainty in other socioeconomic drivers of environmental change are needed. In addition, a set of fully integrated models capable of analyzing policies that unfold sequentially, while taking account of uncertainty, could inform policy design and processes of societal and political judgment, including judgments of acceptable risk.

Enhanced integrated assessment capability, including improved representation of diverse elements of the coupled human-environment system in integrated assessment models, promises benefits across a wide range of scientific fields as well as for supporting decision making. A long-range goal of integrated assessment models is to seamlessly connect models of human activity, GHG emissions, and Earth system processes, including the impacts of climate change on human and natural systems and the feedbacks of changes in these systems on climate change. In addition to improved computational resources and improved understanding of human and environmental systems, integrated assessment modeling would also benefit from model intercomparison and assessment techniques similar to those employed in models that focus on Earth system processes.

Life-Cycle Assessment Methods 4

The impacts of a product (or process) on the environment come not only when the product is being used for its intended purpose, but also as the product is manufactured and as it is disposed of at the end of its useful life. Efforts to account for the full set of environmental impacts of a product, from production of raw materials through manufacture and use to its eventual disposition, are referred to as life-cycle analysis (LCA). LCA is an important tool for identifying opportunities for reducing GHG emissions and also for examining trade-offs between GHG emissions and other environmental impacts. LCA has been used to examine the GHG emissions and land use requirements of renewable energy technologies (e.g., NRC, 2009) and other technolo-

This subsection was inadvertently left out of prepublication copies of the report.

gies that might reduce GHG emissions (e.g., Jaramillo et al., 2009, Kubiszewski et al., 2010, Lenzen, 2008, Samaras and Meisterling, 2008).

LCA of corn-based ethanol and other liquid fuels derived from plant materials (e.g., Davis et al., 2009; Kim et al., 2009; Robertson et al., 2008; Tilman et al., 2009) illustrate both the value of the method and some of the complexities in applying it. Because corn ethanol is produced from sugars created by photosynthesis, which removes CO 2 from ambient air, it might be assumed that substituting corn ethanol for gasoline produced from petroleum would substantially reduce net GHG emissions. However, LCA shows that these emissions reductions are much smaller (and in some cases may even result in higher GHG emissions) when the emissions associated with growing the corn, processing it into ethanol, and transporting it are accounted for. A substantial shift to corn-based ethanol (or other biofuels) could also lead to significant land use changes and changes in food prices. LCA also points out the importance of farming practices in shaping agricultural GHG emissions and to the potential for alternative plant inputs, such as cellulose, as a feedstock for liquid fuels.

The utility and potential applications of LCA have been recognized by government agencies in the United States and around the world (EPA, 2010a; European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2010) and by the private sector. For example, Walmart is emphasizing LCA in the sustainability assessment it is requiring of all its suppliers. 5 Useful as it is, LCA, like any policy analysis tool, has limitations. For example, the boundaries for the analysis must be defined, materials used for multiple purposes must be allocated appropriately, and the databases typically consulted to estimate emissions at each step of the analysis may have uncertainties. There is currently little standardization of these databases or of methods for drawing boundaries and allocating impacts. LCA may also identify multiple environmental impacts. For example, nuclear reactors or hydroelectric systems produce relatively few GHG emissions but have other environmental impacts (see, e.g., NRC, 2009d; NRC, 2009f), and it is not clear how to weight trade-offs across different types of impacts (but see Huijbregts et al., 2008). Finally, LCA is not familiar to most consumers and policy makers so its ultimate contribution to better decision making will depend on processes that encourage its use. These and other scientific challenges are starting to be addressed by the research community (see, e.g., Finnveden et al., 2009; Horne et al., 2009; Ramaswami et al., 2008); additional research on LCA would allow its application to an expanding range of problems and improve its use as a decision tool in adaptive risk-management strategies.

See

Environmental Benefit-Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

Integrated assessment models are intended to help decision makers understand the implications of taking different courses of action, but when there are many outcomes of concern, the problem of how to make trade-offs remains. Benefit-cost analysis is a common method for making trade-offs across outcomes and thus linking modeling to the decision-support systems (see Chapter 17 ). Benefit-cost analysis defines each outcome as either a benefit or a cost, assigns a value to each of the projected outcomes, weights them by the degree of certainty associated with the projection of outcomes, and discounts outcomes that occur in the future. Then, by comparing the ratio of benefits to costs (or using a similar metric), benefit-cost analysis allows for comparisons across alternative decisions, including across different policy options.

As discussed in Chapter 17 , the current limits of benefit-cost analysis applied to global climate change decision making are substantial. A research program focused on improvements to benefit-cost analysis and other valuation approaches, especially for ecosystem services (see below), could yield major contributions to improved decision making. Equity and distributional weighting issues, including issues related to weighting the interests of present versus future generations, are areas of particular interest. In all, five major research needs are identified in Chapter 17 : (1) estimating the social value of outcomes for which there is no market value, such as for many ecosystem services; (2) handling low-probability/high-consequence events; (3) developing better methods for comparing near-term outcomes to those that occur many years hence; (4) incorporating technological change into the assessment of outcomes; and (5) including equity consideration in the analysis.

In contrast to benefit-cost analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis compares costs of actions to predefined objectives, without assigning a monetary value to those objectives. Cost-effectiveness analysis, which is also discussed in Chapter 17 , can be especially useful when there is only one policy objective, such as comparing alternative policies for pricing GHG emissions to reach a specific emissions budget or concentration target. Cost-effectiveness analysis avoids some of the difficulties of benefit-cost analysis. However, when more than one outcome matters to decision makers, cost-effectiveness analysis requires a technique for making trade-offs. Again, additional research can help to extend and improve such analyses.

Ecosystem Function and Ecosystem Services Models

Dynamic models of ecosystem processes and services translate what is known about biophysical functions of ecosystems and landscapes or water systems into information about the provision of goods and services that are important to society (Daily and Matson, 2008). Such models are critical in allowing particular land, freshwater, or ocean use decisions to be evaluated in terms of resulting values to decision makers and society; for evaluating the effects of specific policies on the provision of goods and services; or for assessing trade-offs and side benefits of particular choices of land or water use. For example, Nelson et al. (2009) used ecosystem models to determine the potential for policies aimed at increasing carbon sequestration to also aid in species conservation. Such analyses can yield maps and other methods for conveying complex information in ways that can effectively engage decision makers and allow them to compare alternative decisions and their impacts on the ecosystem services of interest to them (MEA, 2005; Tallis and Kareiva, 2006).

Ecosystem process models and other methods for assessing the effects of policies on ecosystem goods and services (MEA, 2005; Turner et al., 1998; Wilson and Howarth, 2002) also provide critical information about the impacts and trade-offs associated with both climate-related and other choices, including impacts that might not otherwise be considered by decision makers (Daily et al., 2009). If and when such information is available, various market-based schemes and “payments for ecosystem services” approaches have been developed to provide a mechanism for compensating resource managers for the ecosystem services provided to other individuals and communities. The design and evaluation of such mechanisms requires collaboration across disciplines (including, for example, ecology and economics) and improvements in the ability to link incentives with trade-offs and synergies among multiple services (Jack et al., 2008). Valuation of goods and services that typically fall outside the realm of economic analysis remains a significant research challenge, although a number of approaches have been developed and applied (Farber et al., 2002).

Policy-Oriented Heuristic Models

Policy-oriented simulation methods can be a useful tool for informing policy makers about the basic characteristics of climate policy choices. These simulation methods can either involve informal linkages between policy choices, climate trajectories, and economic information, or be implemented in a formal integrated modeling framework. For example, the C-ROADS model 6 divides the countries of the world into blocs

See .

with common situations or common interests (such as the developed nations), takes as input the commitments to GHG emissions reductions each bloc might be willing to make, and generates projected emissions, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, temperature, and sea level rise over the next 100 years. The underlying model is simple enough to be used in real time by policy makers to ask “what if” questions that can inform negotiations. It can also be used in combination with gaming simulations in which individuals or teams take on the roles of blocs of countries and negotiate with each other to simulate not only the climate system but also the international negotiation process. When such simplified models are used, however, it is important to ensure that the simplified representations of complex processes are backed up, supported, and verified by more comprehensive models that can simulate the full range of critical processes in both the Earth system and human systems.

Heuristic models and exercises have also been developed that engage decision makers, scientists, and others in planning exercises and gaming to explore futures. Such tools are particularly well developed for military and business applications but have also been applied to climate change, including in processes that engage citizens (Poumadère et al., 2008; Toth and Hizsnyik, 2008). Though not predictive, such models and exercises can provide unexpected insights into future possibilities, especially those that involve human interactions. They can also be powerful tools for helping decision makers understand and develop strategies to cope with uncertainty, especially if coupled with improved visualization techniques (Sheppard, 2005; Sheppard and Meitner, 2005).

Metrics and Indicators

Metrics and indicators are critical tools for monitoring climate change, understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and evaluating the effectiveness of actions taken to respond to climate change. While research on indicators has been a focus of attention for several decades (Dietz et al., 2009c; Orians and Policansky, 2009; Parris and Kates, 2003; York, 2009), progress is needed to improve integration of physical indicators with emerging indicators of ecosystem health and human well-being (NRC, 2005c). Developing reliable and valid approaches for measuring and monitoring sustainable well-being (that is, approaches that account for multiple dimensions of human well-being, the social and environmental factors that contribute to it, and the relative efficiency with which nations, regions, and communities produce it) would greatly aid adaptive risk management (see Box 3.1 ) by providing guidance on the overall effectiveness of actions taken (or not taken) in response to climate change and other risks.

Development of and improvements in metrics or indicators that span and integrate all relevant physical, chemical, biological, and socioeconomic domains are needed to help guide various actions taken to respond to climate change. Such metrics should focus on the “vitals” of the Earth system, such as freshwater and food availability, ecosystem health, and human well-being, but should also be flexible and, to the extent allowed by present understanding, attempt to identify possible indicators of tipping points or abrupt changes in both the climate system and related human and environmental systems. Many candidate metrics and indicators exist, but additional research will be needed to test, refine, and extend these measures.

One key element in this research area is the development of more refined metrics and indicators of social change. For example, gross domestic product (GDP) is a well-developed measure of economic transactions that is often interpreted as a measure of overall human well-being, but GDP was not designed for this use and may not be a good indicator of either collective or average well-being (Hecht, 2005). A variety of efforts are under way to develop alternative indicators of both human well-being and of human impact on the environment that may help monitor social and environmental change and the link between them (Frey, 2008; Hecht, 2005; Krueger, 2009; Parris and Kates, 2003; Wackernagel et al., 2002; World Bank, 2006).

Certification Systems and Standards

A number of certification systems have emerged in recent decades to identify products or services with certain environmental or social attributes, assist in auditing compliance with environmental or resource management standards, and to inform consumers about different aspects of the products they consume (Dilling and Farhar, 2007; NRC, 2010d). In the context of climate change, certification systems and standards are sets of rules and procedures that are intended to ensure that sellers of credits are following steps that ensure that CO 2 emissions are actually being reduced (see Chapter 17 ). Certification systems typically span a product’s entire supply chain, from source materials or activities to end consumer. Performance standards are frequently set and monitored by third-party certifiers, and the “label” is typically the indicator of compliance with the standards of the system.

Natural resource certification schemes, many of which originated in the forestry sector, have inspired use in fisheries, tourism, some crop production, and park management (Auld et al., 2008; Conroy, 2006). Variants are also used in the health and building sectors and in even more complicated supply chains associated with other markets. Certification schemes are increasingly being used to address climate change issues,

especially issues related to energy use, land use, and green infrastructure, as well as broader sustainability issues (Auld et al., 2008; Vine et al., 2001). With such a diversification and proliferation of certification systems and standards, credibility, equitability, usability, and unintended consequences have become important challenges. These can all be evaluated through scientific research efforts (NRC, 2010d; Oldenburg et al., 2009). For example, research will be needed to improve understanding and analysis of the credibility and effectiveness of specific approaches, including positive and negative unintended consequences. Analysis in this domain, as with many of the others discussed in this chapter, will require integrative and interdisciplinary approaches that span a range of scientific disciplines and also require input from decision makers.

CHAPTER CONCLUSION

Climate change has the potential to intersect with virtually every aspect of human activity, with significant repercussions for things that people care about. The risks associated with climate change have motivated many decision makers to begin to take or plan actions to limit climate change or adapt to its impacts. These actions and plans, in turn, place new demands on climate change research. While scientific research alone cannot determine what actions should be taken in response to climate change, it can inform, assist, and support those who must make these important decisions.

The seven integrative, crosscutting research themes described in this chapter are critical elements of a climate research endeavor that seeks to both improve understanding and to provide input to and support for climate-related actions and decisions, and these themes would form a powerful foundation for an expanded climate change research enterprise. Such an enterprise would continue to improve our understanding of the causes, consequences, and complexities of climate change from an integrated perspective that considers both human systems and the Earth system. It would also inform, evaluate, and improve society’s responses to climate change, including actions that are or could be taken to limit the magnitude of climate change, adapt to its impacts, or support more effective climate-related decisions.

Several of the themes in this chapter represent new or understudied elements of climate change science, while others represent established research programs. Progress in all seven themes is needed (either iteratively or concurrently) because they are synergistic. Meeting this expanded set of research requirements will require changes in the way climate change research is supported, organized, and conducted. Chapter 5 discusses how this broader, more integrated climate change research enterprise might be formulated, organized, and conducted, and provides recommendations for the new era of climate change research.

This page intentionally left blank.

Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for—and in many cases is already affecting—a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change , part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.

As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change.

Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.

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What has worked to fight climate change? Policies where someone pays for polluting, study finds

FILE - Vehicles move along Interstate 76 ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday in Philadelphia, Nov. 22, 2023. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

FILE - An offshore wind farm is visible from the beach in Hartlepool, England, Nov. 12, 2019. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, File)

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WASHINGTON (AP) — To figure out what really works when nations try to fight climate change, researchers looked at 1,500 ways countries have tried to curb heat-trapping gases. Their answer: Not many have done the job. And success often means someone has to pay a price, whether at the pump or elsewhere.

In only 63 cases since 1998, did researchers find policies that resulted in significant cuts of carbon pollution, a new study in Thursday’s journal Science found.

Moves toward phasing out fossil fuel use and gas-powered engines, for example, haven’t worked by themselves, but they are more successful when combined with some kind of energy tax or additional cost system, study authors concluded in an exhaustive analysis of global emissions, climate policies and laws.

“The key ingredient if you want to reduce emissions is that you have pricing in the policy mix,” said study co-author Nicolas Koch, a climate economist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “If subsidies and regulations come alone or in a mix with each other, you won’t see major emission reductions. But when price instruments come in the mix like a carbon energy tax then they will deliver those substantial emissions reductions.”

The study also found that what works in rich nations doesn’t always work as well in developing ones.

Still, it shows the power of the purse when fighting climate change, something economists always suspected, said several outside policy experts, climate scientists and economists who praised the study.

“We won’t crack the climate problem in wealthier nations until the polluter pays,” said Rob Jackson, a Stanford University climate scientist and author of the book Clear Blue Sky. “Other policies help, but nibble around the edges.”

“Carbon pricing puts the onus on the owners and products causing the climate crisis,” Jackson said in an email.

A great example of what works is in the electricity sector in the United Kingdom, Koch said. That country instituted a mix of 11 different policies starting in 2012, including a phaseout of coal and a pricing scheme involving emission trading, which he said nearly halved emissions — “a huge effect.”

Of the 63 success stories, the biggest reduction was seen in South Africa’s building sector, where a combination of regulation, subsidies and labeling of appliances cut emissions nearly 54%.

The only success story in the United States was in transportation. Emissions dropped 8% from 2005 to 2011 thanks to a mix of fuel standards — which amount to regulation — and subsidies.

Yet even the policy tools that seem to work still barely put a dent in ever-rising carbon dioxide emissions. Overall, the 63 successful instances of climate policies trimmed 600 million to 1.8 billion metric tons of the heat-trapping gas, the study found. Last year the world spewed 36.8 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide while burning fossil fuels and making cement.

If every major country somehow learned the lesson of this analysis and enacted the policies that work best, it would only shrink the United Nations “emissions gap” of 23 billion metric tons of all greenhouse gases by about 26%, the study found. The gap is the difference between how much carbon the world is on track to put in the air in 2030 and the amount that would keep warming at or below internationally agreed upon levels.

“It basically shows we have to do a better job,” said Koch, who is also head of the policy evaluation lab at the Mercator Research Institute in Berlin.

Niklas Hohne at Germany’s New Climate Institute, who wasn’t part of the study said: “The world really needs to make a step change, move into emergency mode and make the impossible possible.”

Koch and his team looked at emissions and efforts to reduce them in 41 countries between 1998 and 2022 —so it doesn’t include the United States’ nearly $400 billion in climate-fighting spending package passed two years ago as a cornerstone of President Joe Biden’s environmental policy — and logged 1,500 different policy actions. They bunched the policies in four broad categories — pricing, regulations, subsidies and information — and analyzed four distinct sectors of the economy: electricity, transportation, buildings and industry.

In what Koch called “the reverse causal approach,” the team looked for emission drops of 5% or more in different sectors of countries’ economies and then figured out what caused them with help of observations and machine learning. Researchers compared emissions to similar nations as control groups and accounted for weather and other factors, Koch said.

The team created a statistically transparent approach that others can use to update or reproduce it, including an interactive website where users can choose nations and economic sectors to see what’s worked. And it could eventually be applied to the 2022 Biden climate package, he said. That package was heavy on subsidies.

John Sterman, a management professor at MIT Sloan Sustainability Institute who wasn’t part of the research, said politicians find it easier to pass policies that subsidize and promote low-carbon technologies. He said that’s not enough.

“It’s also necessary to discourage fossil fuels by pricing them closer to their full costs, including the costs of the climate damage they cause,” he said.

Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears

Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org .

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Harris has yet to outline her plan for climate change. Here's what the Democratic Party platform says.

By Mary Cunningham

August 24, 2024 / 7:36 AM EDT / CBS News

The Democratic Party devoted seven pages of its 90-page 2024 platform to climate policy, offering a few clues about what Vice President Kamala Harris could do to combat climate change if she wins the presidency.

Harris, who only emerged as her party's nominee in mid-July after President Biden dropped out of the race , has not yet articulated her own climate policy. The topic was scarcely mentioned at the Democratic convention this week, making the party platform the only guide to what climate policy in a Harris White House might be.

During her nearly 40-minute long address at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday night, she talked about the economy, the war in Gaza, and immigration, but made just one brief reference to the issue in outlining the "fundamental freedoms" at stake in this election — "the freedom to breathe clean air, drink clean water, and live free from the pollution that fuels the climate crisis."

Stevie O'Hanlon, a spokesperson for The Sunrise Movement, a youth-led climate group, said that Harris' decision not to speak more forcefully on climate change – both at the DNC and leading up to it – was a "missed opportunity."

"Anyone running for president has a responsibility to talk about it," she said.

While voters wait for more details about how she'll tackle climate change, here are some key takeaways from the party's platform on climate.

Continue to build on the groundwork of the Inflation Reduction Act

In keeping with the goals of the Inflation Reduction Act , which made investments in curbing health care costs and combating climate change, the Democratic Party's platform calls for the investment in clean energy, such as solar and offshore wind, and the electrical grid, with a focus on delivering these technologies to the communities most impacted by climate change.

The "clean energy boom," the platform says , is projected to triple clean-energy generation, cut electricity rates by 9% and cut gas prices by as much as 13% by 2030.

To bring this new technology online, Democrats say they'd create new taxpayer-funded jobs through executive action and triple the American Climate Corps — a program training 20,000 young people in clean-energy and climate-focused jobs — by the end of the decade. According to a White House press statement on the second anniversary of the legislation, the act has created over 330,000 jobs.

Critics of the Inflation Reduction Act call it a "climate slush fund" and question whether or not it will meet the ambitious goals outlined by the Biden administration to reduce carbon emissions. A Princeton University study last year estimated the legislation would make a significant dent in curbing emissions but would fall short of the nation's 2030 climate goals.

The rollout of rebates on solar panels, heat pumps, home insulation and electric vehicles has come with its own hiccups. It's been slower than expected , and those who've taken advantage of the savings have mostly been on the higher end of the income scale , leaving some to question whether the policy benefits the middle class.

Make farming net zero-emissions by 2050

The platform also calls for the adoption of practices that will bring farming in the U.S. to net-zero emissions by 2050, which would make it the first country to do so. USDA data says farming accounted for 10% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2021.

According to the platform , over 80,000 farms have adopted "climate-smart practices" with funding from the Agriculture Department aimed at reducing carbon emissions and improving soil health .

Despite the progress, full decarbonization is expected to be an uphill battle. Experts point out , according to The Conversation, that many of the proposed climate measures can more readily be put into practice by large corporations but may be impractical or simply too expensive for small farmers to adopt.

Electrify the transportation sector

The Democrats also aspire to eliminate the transportation sector's carbon footprint by 2050. Vehicles are responsible for a third of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

The Biden administration issued a rule requiring about 56% of all new vehicle sales to be electric by 2032; however, Americans aren't yet sold on EVs , a poll earlier this summer found. Consumers worry about range and the length of time it takes to charge EVs. According to Kelley Blue Book , around 1.2 million electric cars were sold in 2023, less than 10% of total sales in the U.S. vehicle market that year.

The slow rollout of electric charging stations presents a formidable challenge for the Biden administration, which has barely made a dent in its goal to install 500,000 chargers nationwide by 2030. As of June, just seven chargers have been rolled out so far this year, the car news site Autoblog noted.

Fund climate agencies and research

Democrats say they'll increase funding for the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as for NASA, NOAA, the National Science Foundation and other agencies to ensure "America leads the world in clean energy innovation." This would require congressional approval, which would likely be challenging even with Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate, and even more difficult if Republicans win control.

"Stand up to Big Oil"

The platform also promises to be tough on Big Oil, as the companies struggle to maintain their grip on the energy industry. Moving forward, the party says it will "eliminate tens of billions of dollars" in oil and gas subsidies, fight price-gouging, and increase protections against drilling and mining in the Arctic.

But these promises don't mean the Democrats are turning their backs on gas entirely. Under the leadership of Mr. Biden, fossil fuel jobs have actually grown more quickly than clean energy jobs, and U.S. oil production has hit record highs, according to reporting by Reuters that tracked his record on fossil fuels . Harris has not yet released her energy policy plans , but her campaign has said that she will not ban fracking if she is elected president.

Shore up infrastructure

The Democrats propose rolling out new roads, bridges and ports that can stand up to the worst effects of climate change. In 2023, the United States suffered from a record-breaking $28 billion in climate disasters . The Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal, which was passed under the Biden administration, allocated $50 billion for protection against extreme weather.

The fate of thousands of these kinds of construction projects started under Mr. Biden will depend on who ends up in the White House. Some Republicans have said they oppose continuing to fund the measure.

Enhance "America's global climate leadership"

Democrats want the U.S. to lead the way in transitioning from fossil fuels to clean energy.

"As Democrats, we believe the United States has an indispensable role to play in solving the climate crisis, and we have an obligation to help other nations carry out this work," the party platform says .

One of the most visible ways the U.S. has taken on this role is in negotiating and signing the Paris climate agreement in 2016, during the last months of former President Barack Obama's administration. Under the accord, countries agreed to lower greenhouse gas emissions to try to slow the rise in global temperature. After he took office in 2021, former President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement, and Mr. Biden signed an order to reenter it on his first day as president.

Biden Administration
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Climate Change
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Deadly Typhoon Gaemi was intensified by climate change, World Weather Attribution study shows

Topic: Climate Change

Four young men carrying plastic bottles and bags of items wade through shoulder-deep brown water.

Residents wade down a flooded road following heavy rains brought on by Typhoon Gaemi last month. ( Reuters: Lisa Marie David )

A devastating typhoon that tore through the Philippines, Taiwan and China last month , destroying infrastructure and leaving more than 100 people dead, was made significantly worse by human-induced climate change, according to a report by a group of climate scientists.

Releasing their report on Thursday just as another typhoon made landfall in Japan , the researchers said warmer seas were providing extra "fuel" for tropical storms in Asia, making them more dangerous.

Typhoon Gaemi swept across East Asia beginning on July 22, with more than 300 millimetres of rainfall falling on the Philippine capital, Manila, in just one day.

Wind speeds as high as 232 kilometres per hour drove storm waves that sank an oil tanker off the Philippine coast, as well as a cargo ship near Taiwan. Rain from Gaemi also caused fatal mudslides in the Chinese province of Hunan .

Typhoon Gaemi's wind speeds were about 14kph more intense and its rainfall was up to 14 per cent higher as a result of warmer sea temperatures, according to the report from World Weather Attribution, an alliance of researchers that analyse the relationship between climate change and extreme weather.

The organisation is a global leader in rapid attribution studies, a relatively new field of science that allows researchers to study the links between rising temperatures and specific extreme events.

"With global temperatures rising, we are already witnessing an increase in these ocean temperatures, and as a result, more powerful fuel is being made available for these tropical cyclones, increasing their intensity," Nadia Bloemendaal, researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, told a briefing on Wednesday ahead of the report's release.

At the same briefing, Clair Barnes, a research associate at London's Grantham Institute, said typhoons were now 30 per cent more likely to occur compared to the pre-industrial age, and warned that they will become even more common and intense if global temperature increases reach 2 degrees Celsius.

East Asia is accustomed to extreme weather, but its flood-prevention infrastructure and emergency response planning are coming under increasing pressure, said Maja Vahlberg, a climate risk consultant with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

"As we continue to confront the realities of climate change, the challenge before us is becoming increasingly daunting," she said.

"We're now witnessing rainfall events so extreme that they surpass the capacities of some of our current systems.

"… Even our best efforts are being stretched to their limits."

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2.1.2 The benefits of using VOSviewer for literature analysis

2.2 Explanation of data background

2.2.2 Boolean operators

2.2.3 The status of literature download

3 Results and discussion

3.1 Results and dicussion of bibliographic coupling analysis by using CATAR (2015–2022)

3.1.1 The relationship about A-10, A-11, A15 and A17 (color green)

3.1.2 The relationship between “ocean conservation and coral reef biodiversity” (A-12) and “corporate cultural sustainability” (A-16) (color yellow)

3.1.3 The relationship between “ecosystems and land degradation” (A-4) and “urban infrastructure and governance” (A-14) (color blue)

3.2 Ranking of countries by the number of published papers, citation count, and publication year

3.2.1 The number of articles interpreting climate change issues from the perspective of sustainable development goals

3.2.2 The increase and decrease of the number of papers published by each country

3.3 Number of publications on the relationship between CC and SDGs by field

3.4 Tracking the research development trends on climate change issues from the framework of sustainable development goals every 2–3 years

3.4.1 Keywords and topics related to climate change and the implementation of sustainable development goals during 2015–2017

3.4.2 Keywords and topics related to climate change and the implementation of sustainable development goals during 2018–2020

3.4.3 Keywords and topics related to climate change and the implementation of sustainable development goals during 2021–2022

4 Conclusion

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