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Warner bros. discovery grows dtc profit to $289m, streaming subs to 110.5m, led by olympics.

CEO David Zaslav described the company going through a process of "generational disruption."

By Georg Szalai , Etan Vlessing November 7, 2024 4:07am

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Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav told investors on Thursday the major studio is working to uncover the hidden value of key assets. The company said that it ended September with 110.5 million global streaming subscribers, including for Max and Discovery+, compared with 103.3 million as of the end of June. The gain of 7.2 million users was the largest ever quarterly growth in subscribers since the launch of Max, with subscriber growth across all regions.

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Discussing WBD’s previously stated target of posting $1 billion or more in DTC EBITDA in 2025, Zaslav told an earnings call that the conglomerate was now expecting to meaningfully exceed that, touting “clear results” of the firm’s focus, investment and patience on Max.

The executive described the company going through a process of “generational disruption,” promising that shareholders would “see and feel significant upside” as management addresses challenges and seizes opportunities. The CEO also lauded some progress but added that “we have more work to do,” and he vowed that management would keep exploring options, both “operationally and strategically.”

“We are doing the work necessary to evaluate all steps, operationally and strategically, to improve performance and unlock shareholder value,” he told analysts. Zaslav pointed to the continuing international rollout of Max, the flagship streaming platform, and “optimizing” the networks business, which includes legacy linear TV assets.

“Getting Max right has required patience, discipline and substantial investment,” Zaslav said. The rollout in Southeast Asia will see the Max streaming service become available in 72 markets worldwide, with more to come in 2025. He added positive DTC trends will continue into the current fourth quarter, as he promised strong revenue, subscriber and profit growth.

The WBD chief promised more “consistency” from its games and motion picture businesses. “When this period of extraordinary disruption settles, based on the momentum we are seeing in our direct to consumer segment, the work we’ve done to sustain our linear TV business, and what we’re doing to return our studios to peak performance, I remain confident that Warner Bros. Discovery will be one of the companies leading the global media industry into the future,” Zaslav told investors.

During the latest financial quarter, WBD posted a third-quarter profit gain to $289 million for its DTC unit, which includes its streaming and premium pay-TV services, compared with a $111 million year-ago profit.

Zaslav told the call that the company has seen the positive DTC trends continue into the current fourth quarter, for which he promised strong revenue, sub and profit growth. While the firm has posted DTC revenue gains, sub growth and quarterly profits before, it now has growth and momentum, he signaled, taking WBD from its talking to its showing success stage.

With Netflix profitable and being seen by some observers as the  king of streaming , Wall Street has been looking for Hollywood conglomerates to make their streaming business units sustainably profitable.

Meanwhile, WBD’s third-quarter results at its studios segment, which has been moving through a more challenging period, included the box-office performance of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice , which was no match for Barbie . Studios unit revenue dropped 17 percent to $2.68 billion as theatrical revenue fell 40 percent, “primarily driven by lower box office revenue as the performance of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Twisters in the current year was more than offset by the stronger performance of Barbie in the prior year.”

Games revenue declined 31 percent, also driven by the better performance of the prior- year slate, led by Mortal Kombat 1 . TV revenue increased 30 percent, “primarily driven by higher initial telecast revenue as a result of the impact from the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes in the prior year,” WBD said. Studios adjusted EBITDA declined by 58 percent to $308 million.

The conglomerate’s networks segment saw the impact of cord-cutting and advertising challenges in the latest period.

WBD previously unveiled a massive  $9.1 billion  goodwill impairment charge to write down the value of its traditional TV networks amid cord-cutting and advertising headwinds. But Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif-Ehrlich in early October reiterated her “buy” rating and $12 price target on the stock. “We continue to believe WBD has a compelling assortment of assets,” she said. “Upcoming catalysts include 1) easing studio comparisons, 2) continued Max rollout internationally, and 3) potential recovery in advertising.”

She also highlighted a new WBD carriage agreement with Charter Communications unveiled during the latest quarter. “While there are several considerations, such as the inclusion of Max as part of the new affiliate deal, the most important takeaway was TNT affiliate rates appear to be flat versus the prior agreement and represents a much better outcome than expected” given the loss of NBA rights , the analyst concluded.

“Warner Bros. Discovery’s third-quarter results demonstrate once again that while we continue to confront extraordinary disruption in our environment, the strategy we have undertaken to ready Warner Bros. Discovery for future success is showing important results,” Zaslav said in Thursday’s earnings report. “Thanks to our rapid international expansion and continued investment in high-quality, diverse content, we saw momentum accelerate in our global direct-to-consumer business.”

WBD shares were up 1.4 percent in Thursday pre-market trading.

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Warner Bros. Discovery Should Explore a Potential Sale or ‘Strategic Alternatives,’ Bank of America Says

“The current composition as a consolidated public company is not working,” Jessica Reif Ehrlich writes in a note to clients

Shares of Warner Bros. Discovery jumped over 7% during Tuesday’s trading session after a leading analyst with Bank of America said the media conglomerate could create more value for shareholders by exploring strategic options, including a potential sale.

“In our view, the current composition as a consolidated public company is not working,” analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote in a note to clients. “At current levels, we argue that exploring strategic alternatives such as asset sales, restructuring and/or mergers would create more shareholder value vs. the status quo.”

Since closing its merger in 2022, WBD has seen its stock price fall over 67%, driven by headwinds surrounding its linear business, last year’s Hollywood strikes and recent NBA media rights negotiations, which could see TNT Sports lose out to Amazon and NBC and potentially impact its next round of negotiations with distributors.

“At the time of the transaction, our bullish thesis was predicated on: (1) the unique and valuable assets underpinning the new company; and (2) WBD’s scale allowing the company to protect the secularly challenged linear business as their streaming service was ramped and the studio reinvigorated. While several financial assumptions behind the combination of Warner Media and Discovery have not materialized, we still believe several of WBD’s assets are best in class with tremendous unrecognized value,” said Reif Ehrlich.

In April, Warner’s two-year lockup window on M&A, known as a Reverse Morris Trust, expired.

Ehrlich laid out one hypothetical scenario in which WBD could spin off its linear assets with a “significant amount (if not all)” of its $39 billion debt load, while allowing its direct-to-consumer and studio assets to grow as a standalone company.

The standalone linear business would be used to generate cash to service upcoming debt over the next several years and could also provide an opportunity to “roll up” other distressed linear assets held by AMC Networks, NBCUniversal and Disney at attractive valuations.

“While this would have a potentially devastating impact on the value of WBD’s debt, we believe a transaction such as this would be accretive to equity value,” she explained. “In essence, this scenario would be a significant transfer in value from debt holders to equity holders. Moreover, while the optics of this are clearly not ideal, and the risks are significant, the nature of WBD’s investment grade debt (covenant lite) offers this as a realistic potential option.”

Ehrlich acknowledged that the option would “clearly be a last resort,” but pointed out that “given where shares are currently trading and have been for the last year, we believe we are approaching the point where it is worthy of consideration.”

WBD could also pursue asset sales or an outright sale, though Erlich argued that there “appears to be a small buyer universe for the entire company given its size/complexity, and asset sales could take a long time to play out and would raise execution risks.”

Bank of America estimated that CNN could be worth $6 billion if potentially spun off, while Warner Bros. Games could be worth $5.6 billion and Poland’s TVN could be worth $3.5 billion.

Another possible option would be a joint venture or merger with another streamer or merging with a broadcast network. CNBC previously reported that the company was interested in a potential streaming partnership with Paramount+. The company is also teaming up with Fox and Disney on Venu Sports, a sports streaming joint venture slated to launch this fall, subject to regulatory approval, which will offer the option to create a bundle with Disney+, Hulu or Max.

Though Ehrlich said a broadcast network merger would make “strategic sense” and likely come with premium sports rights to help protect its linear business and grow streaming, there would be uncertainty around finding a willing seller and questions around WBD’s ability to finance a transaction given its high debt load and low stock price. She also argued that it is unclear if a Max JV/merger would be enough to stem the overall secular challenges in other areas of WBD’s business.

Bank of America’s pitch comes as Warner Bros. Discovery is set to report its second quarter earnings Aug. 7.

The firm expects that the company’s results could be impacted by a 9% decline in network advertising revenue and a 10% decline in network distribution revenue. It is forecasting total revenue of $9.9 billion and EBITDA of $1.88 billion for the quarter, mainly driven by cuts to the Studio segment.

It also anticipates that the Studio segment will be challenged due to “a continuing tough comparison related to Hogwarts Legacy and disappointing box office performance in the quarter and lower delivery of TV episodes,” and lowered its EBITDA estimate to $250 million from $580 million. However, it raised DTC EBITDA from a loss of $90 million to a loss of $50 million.

Bank of America forecasts that WBD will report $40.2 billion in revenue and $9.67 billion in EBITDA for full year 2025 and reduced EBITDA estimates for full year 2025 and 2026 by roughly $600 million each to reflect “the continued challenging trajectory of the business.”

WBD stock closed at $7.98 per share at the end of Tuesday’s trading session.

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Warner Bros. Discovery Should Explore a Potential Sale or ‘Strategic Alternatives,’ Bank of America Says

Shares of Warner Bros. Discovery jumped over 7% during Tuesday’s trading session after a leading analyst with Bank of America said the media conglomerate could create more value for shareholders by exploring strategic options, including a potential sale.

“In our view, the current composition as a consolidated public company is not working,” analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote in a note to clients. “At current levels, we argue that exploring strategic alternatives such as asset sales, restructuring and/or mergers would create more shareholder value vs. the status quo.”

Since closing its merger in 2022, WBD has seen its stock price fall over 67%, driven by headwinds surrounding its linear business, last year’s Hollywood strikes and recent NBA media rights negotiations, which could see TNT Sports lose out to Amazon and NBC and potentially impact its next round of negotiations with distributors.

“At the time of the transaction, our bullish thesis was predicated on: (1) the unique and valuable assets underpinning the new company; and (2) WBD’s scale allowing the company to protect the secularly challenged linear business as their streaming service was ramped and the studio reinvigorated. While several financial assumptions behind the combination of Warner Media and Discovery have not materialized, we still believe several of WBD’s assets are best in class with tremendous unrecognized value,” said Reif Ehrlich.

In April, Warner’s two-year lockup window on M&A, known as a Reverse Morris Trust, expired.

Ehrlich laid out one hypothetical scenario in which WBD could spin off its linear assets with a “significant amount (if not all)” of its $40 billion in long-term debt, while allowing its direct-to-consumer and studio assets to grow as a standalone company.

The standalone linear business would be used to generate cash to service upcoming debt over the next several years and could also provide an opportunity to “roll up” other distressed linear assets held by AMC Networks, NBCUniversal and Disney at attractive valuations.

“While this would have a potentially devastating impact on the value of WBD’s debt, we believe a transaction such as this would be accretive to equity value,” she explained. “In essence, this scenario would be a significant transfer in value from debt holders to equity holders. Moreover, while the optics of this are clearly not ideal, and the risks are significant, the nature of WBD’s investment grade debt (covenant lite) offers this as a realistic potential option.”

Ehrlich acknowledged that the option would “clearly be a last resort,” but pointed out that “given where shares are currently trading and have been for the last year, we believe we are approaching the point where it is worthy of consideration.”

WBD could also pursue asset sales or an outright sale, though Erlich argued that there “appears to be a small buyer universe for the entire company given its size/complexity, and asset sales could take a long time to play out and would raise execution risks.”

Bank of America estimated that CNN could be worth $6 billion if potentially spun off, while Warner Bros. Games could be worth $5.6 billion and Poland’s TVN could be worth $3.5 billion.

Another possible option would be a joint venture or merger with another streamer or merging with a broadcast network. CNBC previously reported that the company was interested in a potential streaming partnership with Paramount+. The company is also teaming up with Fox and Disney on Venu Sports, a sports streaming joint venture slated to launch this fall, subject to regulatory approval, which will offer the option to create a bundle with Disney+, Hulu or Max.

Though Ehrlich said a broadcast network merger would make “strategic sense” and likely come with premium sports rights to help protect its linear business and grow streaming, there would be uncertainty around finding a willing seller and questions around WBD’s ability to finance a transaction given its high debt load and low stock price. She also argued that it is unclear if a Max JV/merger would be enough to stem the overall secular challenges in other areas of WBD’s business.

Bank of America’s pitch comes as Warner Bros. Discovery is set to report its second quarter earnings Aug. 7.

The firm expects that the company’s results could be impacted by a 9% decline in network advertising revenue and a 10% decline in network distribution revenue. It is forecasting total revenue of $9.9 billion and EBITDA of $1.88 billion for the quarter, mainly driven by cuts to the Studio segment.

It also anticipates that the Studio segment will be challenged due to “a continuing tough comparison related to Hogwarts Legacy and disappointing box office performance in the quarter and lower delivery of TV episodes,” and lowered its EBITDA estimate to $250 million from $580 million. However, it raised DTC EBITDA from a loss of $90 million to a loss of $50 million.

Bank of America forecasts that WBD will report $40.2 billion in revenue and $9.67 billion in EBITDA for full year 2025 and reduced EBITDA estimates for full year 2025 and 2026 by roughly $600 million each to reflect “the continued challenging trajectory of the business.”

WBD stock closed at $7.98 per share at the end of Tuesday’s trading session.

The post Warner Bros. Discovery Should Explore a Potential Sale or ‘Strategic Alternatives,’ Bank of America Says appeared first on TheWrap .

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Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD): A Bull Case Theory

Published on september 17, 2024 at 12:41 pm by ricardo pillai in news , stock analysis.

We came across a  bullish thesis on Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) on Johnson Equity Analysis’s Substack by Kyler Johnson. In this article we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on WBD. WBD Technologies, Inc. share was trading at $8.56 as of Sept 16th.

A line of cable boxes and modern televisions, representing the company’s video services.

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) presents a compelling investment opportunity despite significant challenges in a rapidly evolving media landscape. The company, a major player in entertainment, owns renowned brands such as Warner Bros., DC, HBO, and CNN, with operations in three main segments: Studios (28% of revenue), Networks (49%), and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) (23%). The streaming segment is particularly crucial, as Warner Brothers seeks to establish its position amid fierce competition from Netflix and Disney. While traditional television is in decline, the DTC segment shows promise with estimated annual growth of 12%. The Studios segment is also expected to see modest growth, benefiting from popular titles.

Financially, Warner Brothers has maintained strong free cash flow (FCF) margins of 20% over the past 15 years, outperforming competitors like Netflix and Disney in recent years. However, the company faces significant debt, with a leverage ratio of 6.1x FCF, raising concerns about its ability to cover liabilities. The company generated $6.75 billion in FCF over the last year, but refinancing challenges could arise if cash flow does not improve. Warner Brothers’ current CEO, David Zaslav, has focused on cost-cutting, leading to improved cash flow management, but there are concerns about the company’s long-term strategy, particularly regarding its streaming platform, Max, which has struggled with U.S. subscriber growth.

The company’s stock, currently trading at $7.05, has dropped significantly from its 2022 highs. However, this steep decline may represent an opportunity for investors, with WBD trading at just 2.7x its 2023 FCF. Given the company’s strong leadership and potential in the DTC segment, WBD could deliver substantial returns if it successfully navigates its debt and streaming challenges. The projected free cash flow for 2029 is estimated at $9.41 billion, with a potential 10x FCF multiple, implying a share price of $38.38—offering a remarkable 470% return over five years. While the risks are considerable, especially in terms of debt and competition, Warner Brothers’ current valuation suggests an attractive entry point for investors seeking significant upside in the media sector.

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. is also not on our list of the  31 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds . As per our database, 48 hedge fund portfolios held WBD at the end of the second quarter which was 55 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of WBD as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than WBD but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the  cheapest AI stock .

READ NEXT:  Analyst Sees a New $25 Billion “Opportunity” for NVIDIA  and  10 Best of Breed Stocks to Buy For The Third Quarter of 2024 According to Bank of America .

Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.

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