case study of indian ocean earthquake

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Case Study: Sumatra and Thailand and the 2004 Tsunami

The Importance of Tsunami Warning Systems and the challenges of warning communication.

Think back to the video you watched in Module 7 – which included scenes of the 2004 tsunami event in Indonesia. The beginning of the video focused on the Banda Aceh area of Sumatra, where fishing communities and small coastal cities were completely destroyed, and the end of the video featured the Phuket area, where more tourist beaches were affected.

Through your reading and watching the videos, you hopefully gained an idea of what it is like to be caught in a tsunami with no advanced warning, and how frantic the attempts to get out of the way must be. Imagine what it would be like to try to move small children, sick or elderly people out of the way of a tsunami with before the wave strikes and with no time to spare!

In Module 7, the events in Phuket, Thailand, are described, with tourists enjoying their vacation on the beach at Christmas 2004. Many are oblivious to the dangers of the approaching tsunami. What could have been done differently? If this were to happen again, would these communities be better informed and prepared?

In Module 7 we also mentioned that early warning systems are very tricky because of the challenges of getting the message out soon enough after the earthquake and before the tsunami waves arrive at a particular shoreline. For example, the towns on the west coast of Sumatra are so close to the Andaman fault that they had almost no time to react, so a warning may not have worked, regardless of how well it was transmitted. Banda Aceh, on the northern tip of Sumatra, was devastated in 2004 because people did not have time to react, while there is evidence that some small nearby island communities fared better where traditional knowledge of the natural warning signs such as the sudden receding of the tidal waters was employed, and residents were able to flee to higher ground. Meanwhile, the tourist destinations of Phuket and Phi Phi, and nearby locations in Thailand had 2 hours, but the warnings were lacking. Visitors lacked necessary knowledge of nature’s warning signs and how to react, and may not have felt the earthquake, so many lives were lost.

In response to the enormous loss of life in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the Global Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System was put in place. The Indian Ocean tsunami warning system now integrates the signals from seismographs and DART Buoys and transmits data to 26 national centers. Warnings at the local level are generated in the form of SMS messages, mosque loudspeakers, sirens, and other methods to warn citizens. How well the warnings translate into lives saved due to rapid response and appropriate behaviors by the citizens depends on each step working properly. The failure of one of the steps can lead to disaster. If the citizens do not have the knowledge needed to take effective action, then the process will not work, and lives will be lost.

In 2012 another earthquake occurred near Banda Aceh in the Indian Ocean, so the newly implemented warning systems were put to the test. In this case, no tsunami was generated by the earthquake, but unfortunately, the weaknesses in the system were revealed. Despite the efforts expended to increase levels of tsunami preparedness since 2004, including new tsunami evacuation shelters and education programs, chaos ensued. Hearing the tsunami warning, people panicked and tried to flee by car, resulting in gridlock on the roads. It was clear that better guidance from the local government was needed, including clear evacuation route signage and regular drills. For more detail on this topic, read the National Geographic article Will Indonesia Be Ready for the Next Tsunami? Clearly, more work is still needed and ongoing to address these weaknesses.

Learning Check Point

We will spend a few minutes also revisiting the accounts of historic tsunami events – in particular, the 1960 event and its effects in Chile and Hilo, Hawaii, and the important messages about how to survive a tsunami. Please re-read some of the accounts of survival during tsunami events in Heed Natural Warnings .

Ten years after the 2004 tsunami, the Indian Ocean is better prepared to avert disaster

The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System, established following the 2004 earthquake, has improved the ability of Indian Ocean countries to handle a new tsunami. Nevertheless, some challenges still need to be overcome, notably the issue of long-term funding for the system.

Pictures of the havoc wreaked by the tsunami that struck countries around the Indian Ocean on 26 December 2004 travelled the world, showing destroyed homes, villages covered in mud and beaches strewn with all manner of debris. They gave us an idea of the magnitude of devastation that in just a few hours spread along the shores of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, southern India and western Thailand, and of the suffering that ensued.

That tsunami, unleashed by a 9.1 magnitude earthquake off the Indonesian island of Sumatra, was one of the deadliest in history. It claimed nearly 230,000 lives, led to the displacement of 1.6 million people, and caused material damages estimated at close to $14 billion.

This heavy toll is largely due to the fact that people were caught unawares and had no time to run for safety before the wave broke. The countries of the Indian Ocean did not dispose of a warning system as they had had little experience of tsunami occurrences, 70% of which take place in the Pacific Ocean and its adjacent seas.

Following this tragedy, Indian Ocean countries turned to UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Committee (IOC) to establish and coordinate an  Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWS), similar to the one that has been operational in the Pacific Ocean since 1965. Two other warning systems were established at the same time—in the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean, as well as in the Caribbean—ensuring that all marine areas in the world are covered.

Officially launched in 2005, the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System became fully operational in 2011. Twenty-eight countries* constitute the Intergovernmental Coordination Group, the governing body of ICG/IOTWS. The three simulation exercises held  in 2009, 2011 and 2014 proved that the system was functional. They assessed the effectiveness of information flows between stakeholders and local emergency procedures.

Recent research has helped increase the effectiveness of the system. Post-tsunami investigations yielded a mass of data that improve our understanding of this natural phenomenon. Scientists are now able to model tsunami occurrences and see how they travel from the high seas to the shores.

In the Indian Ocean, a network of seismometers, tide gauges and buoys with satellite links provides data concerning underwater seismic tremors to three regional warning centres in Australia, India and Indonesia. These centres are then able to alert the relevant national authorities in the event of a tsunami.

Ten years after the tragedy, countries around the Indian Ocean are much better able to handle a tsunami than they were in 2004. Nevertheless, participants at an international conference organized by the IOC, and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics in Jakarta (Indonesia) from 24 to 25 November 2004 pointed to several challenges that must still to be overcome.

“Covering the last mile” is a major issue, because although the warning system is functional at the regional and national levels, it is necessary to make sure that populations living in remote areas will be reached in time to escape the wave.

Funding represents another hurdle. Considerable resources were granted by some countries, particularly Australia, India and Indonesia, when the present system was established. But direct funding by States plummeted from $9 million in 2005-2006 to less than $1 million in 2013-2014. Keeping the warning system operational is estimated to cost between $50 and $100 million dollars annually. This is the price that must be paid to keep the number of future tsunami victims down.

Contact: Agnès Bardon, UNESCO Press Service, +33 1 45 68 17 64, a.bardon(at)unesco.org

*Australia, Bangladesh, Comoros, Djibouti, France (La Réunion), India, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mauritius, Mozambique, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Seychelles, Singapore, Somalia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, Tanzania, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Yemen.

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Case study: Indian Ocean, 2004

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1.3.5 Prediction, preparation and protection

2.1 components of an ecosystem.

• On December 20, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake triggered a tsunami across the coastlines of the Indian Ocean
• 1600 km of fault surface ruptured about 15 m along the subduction zone of the Indian plate under the Burma plate, displacing an estimated 30 cubic kilometres of water, sending is at 500 to 1000 km/h to the coast, where the wave reached heights of 30 m
• The earthquake and tsunami were felt in Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and the Maldives
• It is the most devastating tsunami in history
• Over 200 thousand people died
• 5 million people left homeless without adequate food, water or sanitation
• In Indonesia, over 150 thousand people were killed, 30 thousand in Sri Lanka and 15 thousand in India
• 410 houses destroyed
• Local economies devastated, especially coastal fishing communities, where two-thirds of the infrastructure were destroyed
• The earthquake & tsunami caused considerable damage to local ecosystems
• 2 million people lost their jobs and an estimated 4 million fell into poverty
• Tourism was affected, even in places that weren’t closed, due to psychological aversion
• Damage to sewage caused the spread of liquid waste, industrial chemicals and polluted water, further damaging the environment
• Sanitation and fresh water were provided to prevent the spread of disease
• Over $10 billion pledged to help those affected
• The World Food Programme provided food for over 1.3 million people
• The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning system was set up, and functioned successfully for the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes
• The Australian government sent ecological experts to the Maldives to help restore the marine environment

Introduction to “Tsunami Science: Ten Years After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Volume I”

• Published: 07 March 2015
• Volume 172 , pages 615–619, ( 2015 )

Cite this article

• Alexander B. Rabinovich 1 , 2 ,
• Eric L. Geist 3 ,
• Hermann M. Fritz 4 &
• Jose C. Borrero 5 , 6  

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Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Tsunami Science: Ten Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.” Eight papers examine various aspects of past events with an emphasis on case and regional studies. Five papers are on tsunami warning and forecast, including the improvement of existing tsunami warning systems and the development of new warning systems in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean region. Three more papers present the results of analytical studies and discuss benchmark problems. Four papers report the impacts of tsunamis, including the detailed calculation of inundation onshore and into rivers and probabilistic analysis for engineering purposes. The final two papers relate to important investigations of the source and tsunami generation. Overall, the volume not only addresses the pivotal 2004 Indian Ocean (Sumatra) and 2011 Japan (Tohoku)  tsunamis, but also examines the tsunami hazard posed to other critical coasts in the world.

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1 Introduction

The Indian Ocean (Sumatra) tsunami of 26 December 2004 was one of the world’s most destructive natural disasters. Spawned by a magnitude ( M w ) 9.1 earthquake (third strongest ever instrumentally recorded), the "Boxing Day" tsunami killed approximately 230,000 people in 14 countries around the Indian Ocean. Among the victims were citizens of more than 60 countries, many of them on holiday. The tsunami propagated as far as the North Pacific and North Atlantic (R abinovich et al . 2006 ) and was probably the most catastrophic and deadliest tsunami in recorded history.

The devastating 2004 tsunami represents a scientific dividing line. Prior to the monumental event, the term “tsunami” was familiar only to specialists. Within hours of the event, the entire world came to understand the power of tsunami waves. Thousands of new researchers from different fields entered tsunami science, bringing their diverse experience along with new ideas. Various countries from around the globe contributed major funding to tsunami research, enabling the installation of hundreds of new high-precision instruments, the development of new technology, and the establishment of more modern communication systems. As a result, incredible progress has been achieved in tsunami research and operation during the ten years after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Tsunami warning and hazard mitigation systems have dramatically improved. The tsunami observational network of coastal tide gauges has been significantly reconstructed, upgraded, and expanded. Tsunami waves began to be monitored in both the deep ocean and from space. A large number of Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations have been emplaced in optimized alignment with the subduction zones encircling the entire Pacific Ocean; DARTs are now also deployed in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. These new, precise instruments have yielded thousands of coastal and hundreds of deep-water, high-quality tsunami records, enabling researchers to refute some previous misconceptions and to improve knowledge significantly about tsunami physics. Modern numerical models, combined with open-ocean DART records, make it possible to forecast tsunami waves for coastal sites with reliable accuracy soon after a major earthquake.

However, despite the recent advances, tsunamis remain a major threat to coastal infrastructure and human life. Destructive tsunami events continue to kill people and create enormous damage. Several catastrophic events occurred in 10 years after the 2004 Indian Ocean (Sumatra) tsunami, including the 2006 Java, 2009 Samoa, 2010 Chile, and 2010 Mentawai tsunamis with hundreds of fatalities per event. The Tohoku (Great East Japan) tsunami of 11 March 2011, which killed almost 20,000 people and destroyed the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, was a tragic example of a chain of devastating events (S atake et al. 2013a ). We can state with some certainty that the number of victims would have been many times higher without existing tsunami mitigation programs and effective tsunami warning services in Japan and other countries.

The present volume was prepared by the Tsunami Commission that was established within the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) following the 1960 Chile tsunami. The 1960 tsunami, generated by the largest ( M w 9.5) instrumentally recorded earthquake, propagated throughout the entire Pacific Ocean, affecting countries located far from the source with 142 fatalities in Japan almost a day later, 61 in Hawaii, and 32 in the Philippines (I garashi et al. 2011 ). It became obvious that tsunami investigation and effective tsunami warning is impossible without intensive international cooperation. Since 1960, the Tsunami Commission has held biannual International Tsunami Symposia and published special volumes of selected papers. Several such volumes have been published during the 10 years following the 2004 Sumatra tsunami, including S atake et al. ( 2007 , 2011a , b , 2013a , b ) and C ummins et al. ( 2008 , 2009 ). From this point of view, these volumes can be considered the frontiers of tsunami science and research, as well as a record of continuous progress in tsunami warning and hazard mitigation. Two recent catastrophic tsunamis, the 2010 Chile and 2011 Tohoku, as well as other events that occurred in 2011 and 2012, attracted much attention and revealed significant new information and data, which were published in an extra, inter-session volume (R abinovich et al. 2014 ).

This volume is mainly based on papers presented at the 26th International Tsunami Symposium that was held from 25 to 28 September 2013 in Göcek, Turkey and Rhodes, Greece. Altogether, the symposium comprised about 150 presentations. For the first time in history, two countries hosted the tsunami symposium. Also for the first time, two tsunami sessions, one mainly focusing on the tsunami physics and the other focusing on paleotsunami studies, were convened in parallel. At the business meeting of the Tsunami Commission, it was decided to publish selected papers presented at this symposium, as well as other papers on related topics. Volume I comprises the first half contributing 22 papers, which became ready for publication by December 2014. Approximately the same number of papers will be published forthcoming in Volume II.

2 Case Studies

Case studies are an important part of tsunami research that highlight the hazard for specific areas—often areas that have been overlooked for tsunamis. For example, H eidarzadeh and S atake ( 2015 ) re-evaluate the source for the 1945 Makran tsunami that struck Oman, Iran, Pakistan, and India. They find that earthquake rupture needs to extend into deep water to explain the tsunami observations. Also from the Indian Ocean, N entwig et al. ( 2015 ) study sedimentary deposits left by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in the Seychelles Islands and find that tsunami sediments caused a change of habitat in mangrove forests on the Islands. In the South Pacific Ocean, the great 2007 Solomon Islands earthquake ruptured across a triple junction leaving behind significant bio- and geo-markers of crust rupture and generated tsunami waves. W ei et al. ( 2015 ) developed tsunami inundation models for the Solomon Islands, highlighting the accuracy and efficiency of the tsunameter-derived tsunami source for near-field tsunami impact assessments along a complex archipelago. M urotani et al. ( 2015 ) examined forerunner tsunami waves generated immediately after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in the Sea of Japan; they found that these waves, recorded both on the west coast of Japan and on Primorye coast of Russia, were caused by the horizontal displacement of the seafloor slope.

The 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake was the second strongest instrumentally recorded earthquake in Canadian history and generated a sizable tsunami. F ine et al. ( 2015 ) use observations of this event, including those from Canada’s deep-ocean cabled observatory, to formulate a detailed source model for this event. The initial model results were used to specify sites of particular interest for post-tsunami field surveys on the coast of Moresby Island (Haida Gwaii), while the field survey observations (L eonard and B ednarski 2014 ) were used, in turn, to verify the numerical simulations. Deep-ocean measurements are also critical to the study by H eidarzadeh et al. ( 2015 ) who examine delays in the observed 2014 Chile tsunami compared to what was predicted. B orrero et al . ( 2015 ) systematically examine the tsunami hazard at New Zealand ports from Pacific Rim earthquakes and find that earthquakes off Central America present the largest hazard. Also, B orrero and G oring ( 2015 ) specifically examine the tsunamis originating from South American subduction zones, focusing on one harbor (Lyttelton, South Island) in New Zealand.

3 Forecast/Warning Studies

Numerical models that provide real-time forecasting of tsunami amplitudes have been developed, starting even before the 2004 Indian Ocean event. G ica et al. ( 2015 ) examine the sensitivity that different types of data collected in real time have on the accuracy of tsunami forecasts and find, intuitively, that direct observations of tsunami waveforms have the biggest impact. In the first of two companion papers, C lement and R eymond ( 2015 ) describe new tools to determine the seismic moment and focal mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquakes and to identify anomalous “tsunami earthquakes” for warning systems. In the second paper, J amelot and R eymond ( 2015 ) present two numerical tsunami modelling tools to forecast runup, inundation and flow velocities in French Polynesia. S chindele et al. ( 2015 ) describe the tools used by the French Tsunami Warning Center as part of the Northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean tsunami warning system. From both a scientific and an emergency management perspective, C assidy ( 2015 ) presents an informative comparison of the earthquake that generated the 2004 Indian Ocean event and potential earthquakes and tsunamis along the Cascadia subduction zone.

4 Benchmark and Analytical Studies

Given the critical use of numerical tsunami models to determine hazard and evacuation zones, much emphasis has been placed in recent years on benchmarking models against analytical solutions, laboratory experiments and case studies. Whereas most benchmarks relate to amplitude, runup, and inundation, the study by A rcos and L e V eque ( 2015 ) benchmarks the GeoClaw model with respect to current velocities, which have only recently become available in the field. More traditional benchmark exercises are presented by H orrillo et al. ( 2015 ) who describe validation of maximum surface amplitude and runup for a number of different tsunami models used to predict inundation for evacuation plans, under the auspices of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. It is important to determine accurately the tsunami response in bays of different configurations. Toward this end, H arris et al. ( 2015 ) analytically derive the 1D, nonlinear tsunami response in trapezoidal bays and compare the results with those calculated from a 2D numerical model.

5 Inundation and Structural Studies

New developments have been made in the last 10 years in preparing tsunami inundation maps. For example, D ilmen et al. ( 2015 ) use very high-resolution, near-shore bathymetry and topography from multispectral satellite imagery to prepare tsunami inundation maps for the region near Fethiye, Turkey. O zer et al. ( 2015 ) describe and calculate the “hydrodynamic demand” parameter in inundation zones that estimates damage to coastal structures from drag forces during tsunami runup. Within the last 10 years, probabilistic methods have been developed to assess tsunami hazards for engineering purposes. O mira et al. ( 2015 ) present a regional probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for coastlines along the northeast Atlantic Ocean, using in part Bayesian methods to incorporate catalog data. The unique hydrodynamic response of tsunamis as they propagate up into rivers is examined by T olkova et al . ( 2015 ). They find that different rivers for different tsunami events modulate the tsunami in very similar ways.

6 Source and Generation Studies

Volume I of “Tsunami Science: Ten Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami” wraps up with two papers that provide new examinations on the sources of tsunamis. H ossen et al . ( 2015 ) find that Time Reverse Imaging (TRI) used to reconstruct the initial sea-surface displacement for tsunamis obviates many of the assumptions used for traditional, forward modelling of tsunami sources. S tefanakis et al. ( 2015 ) examine the effect of uplifting a cylindrical sill during tsunami generation, analogous to the uplift of a seamount. They find that whereas the sill effect reduces wave heights in the far field, there is amplification of wave heights above the sill, owing to partial wave trapping.

A rcos , M.E.M., L e V eque , R.J. (2015), Validating velocities in the GeoClaw tsunami model using observations near Hawaii from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0980-y

B orrero , J.C., G oring , D.G. (2015), South American tsunamis in Lyttelton Harbor, New Zealand . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-10

B orrero , J.C., G oring , D.G., G reer , S.D., P ower , W.L. (2015), Far - field tsunami hazard in New Zealand ports . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0987-4

C assidy , J.F. (2015), The 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami: lessons learned in subduction zone science and emergency management for the Cascadia Subduction Zone . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-10

C lément , J., R eymond , D. (2015), New tsunami forecast tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System. Part I: moment tensor, slowness and seismic source inversion . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0888-6

C ummins , P.R., K ong , L.S.L., S atake , K. (2008), Tsunami Science Four Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Part I: Modelling and Hazard Assessment , Pure Appl. Geophys. 165 (11–12), Topical Issue.

C ummins , P.R., K ong , L.S.L., S atake , K. (2009), Tsunami Science Four Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Part II: Observation and data Analysis , Pure Appl. Geophys. 166 (1–2), Topical Issue.

D ilmen , D.I., K emec , S., Y alçiner , A.C., D üzgün , S., Z aytsev , A. (2015), Development of a tsunami inundation map in detecting tsunami risk in Gulf of Fethiye, Turkey . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0936-2

F ine , I. V., C herniawsky , J.Y., T homson , R.E., R abinovich , A.B., K rassovski M.V. (2015), Observations and numerical modeling of the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami off the coast of British Columbia. Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-1012-7

G ica , E., T itov , V.V., M oore , C., W ei , Y. (2015), Tsunami simulation using sources inferred from various measurement data: Implications for the model forecast . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0979-4

J amelot , A., R eymond , D. (2015), New tsunami forecast tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System. Part II: Numerical modelling and tsunami height estimation . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0997-2

H arris , M.W., N icolsky , D.J., P elinovsky , E.N., R ybkin , A.V. (2015), Runup of nonlinear long waves in trapezoidal bays: 1 - D analytical theory and 2 - D numerical computations . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-10

H eidarzadeh , M., S atake , K. (2015), New insights into the source of the Makran tsunami of 27 November 1945 from tsunami waveforms and coastal deformation data. Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0948-y

H eidarzadeh , M., S atake , K. M urotani , S., G usman , A.R., W atada , S. (2015), Deep - water characteristics of the trans - Pacific tsunami from the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2, Iquique, Chile earthquake . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0983-8

H orrillo , J., G rilli , S.T., N icolsky , D., V olker , R., Z hang , J. (2015), Performance benchmarking tsunami models for NTHMP’s inundation mapping activities . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0891-y

H ossen , M. J., C ummins , P.R., R oberts , S.G., A llgeyer , S. (2015), Time reverse imaging of the tsunami source. Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-10 .

I garashi , Y., K ong , L., Y amamoto , M., M c C reery , C.S. (2011), Anatomy of historical tsunamis: lessons learned for tsunami warning , Pure Appl. Geophys., 168 , 2043–2063; doi: 10.1007/s00024-011-0287-1 .

L eonard , L.J., B ednarski , J.M. (2014), Field survey following the 27 October 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami , Pure Appl. Geophys., 171 , 3467-3482; doi:10.1007/s00024-014-0792-0

M urotani , S., I wai , M., S atake , K., S hevchenko , G., L oskutov , A. (2015), Tsunami forerunner of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake observed in the Sea of Japan . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014

N entwig , V., B ahlburg , H., M onthy , D. (2015), Sedimentology of coastal deposits in the Seychelles Islands –– evidence of the Indian Ocean tsunami 2004 . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0990-9

O mira , R., B aptista , M.A., M atias , L. (2015), Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near - and far - field tectonic sources . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0949-x

O zer C.S., Y alçiner , A.C., Z aytsev , A. (2015), Investigation of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in inundation zone with different structural layout . Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0947-z

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S atake K., R abinovich , A.B., D ominey -H owes , D., B orrero , J.C. (2013a), Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World: Past, Present, and Future. Volume I : The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami . Pure Appl. Geophys., 170 (6–8), Topical Issue.

S atake K., R abinovich , A.B., D ominey -H owes , D., B orrero , J.C. (2013b), Historical and Recent Catastrophic Tsunamis in the World: Past, Present, and Future. Volume II : Tsunamis from 1755 to 2010 . Pure Appl. Geophys., 170 (9–10), Topical Issue.

S chindelé , F., G ailler , A., H ébert , H., L oevenbruck , A., G utierrez , E., M onnier , A., R oudil , P., R eymond , D., R ivera , L. (2015), Implementation and challenges of the Tsunami Warning System in the Western Mediterranean. Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-0950-4 .

S tefanakis , T.S., D ias , F., S ynolakis , C. (2015), Tsunami generation above a sill. Pure Appl. Geophys., 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-10

T olkova , E., T anaka , H., R oh , M. (2015), Tsunami observations in rivers from a perspective of tsunami interaction with tide and riverine flow. Pure Appl. Geophys. 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-09-10

W ei , Y., F ritz , H.M., T itov , V.V., U slu , B., C hamberlin , C., K alligeris , N. (2015), Source models and near - field impact of the 1 April 2007 Solomon Islands tsunami . Pure Appl. Geophys. 172 (3–4) (this issue), doi: 10.1007/s00024-014-09-10

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Dr. Renata Dmowska, the Editor-in-Chief for Topical Issues of PAGEOPH, for arranging and encouraging us to organize these topical volumes. We also thank Ms. Priyanka Ganesh at Journals Editorial Office of Springer for her timely editorial assistance. Finally, we would like to thank all the authors and reviewers who contributed to these topical volumes.

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Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Institute of Ocean Sciences, 9860 West Saanich Rd., Sidney, BC, V8L 4B2, Canada

Alexander B. Rabinovich

P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 36 Nakhimovsky Pr., Moscow, 117997, Russia

US Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd., MS 999, Menlo Park, CA, 94025, USA

Eric L. Geist

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA

Hermann M. Fritz

eCoast Ltd., Box 151, Raglan, 3225, New Zealand

Jose C. Borrero

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

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Rabinovich, A.B., Geist, E.L., Fritz, H.M. et al. Introduction to “Tsunami Science: Ten Years After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Volume I”. Pure Appl. Geophys. 172 , 615–619 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1038-5

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Received : 12 January 2015

Accepted : 13 January 2015

Published : 07 March 2015

Issue Date : March 2015

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1038-5

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• Tsunami investigation
• 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami
• 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami
• source parameters
• Pacific Ocean
• tsunami warning system
• tsunami records
• tsunami modelling
• spectral analysis
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• ADB, 2005, "An Initial Assessment of the Impact of the Earthquake and Tsunami of December 2004." Manila: Asian Development Bank
• Adger, N. et al, "Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters" Science 309, p.1036-1039, 2005
• Alexander, D, 2000, Confronting Catastrophe: New Perspectives on Natural Disasters. Herefordshire, UK: Terra Publications
• BAPPENAS, 2005, "Indonesia: Preliminary Damage and Loss Assessment" Government of Indonesia.
• FAO 2005, "Tsunami Assessment Reports" Available online at http://www.fao.org/
• Goldblatt, D. 1999, "Risk Society and the Environment" in M. Smith (ed), Thinking through the Environment. London: Routledge.
• ISDR 2002, Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development: Understanding the Links between Development, Environment and Natural Hazards Leading to Disasters. Background document for the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD). Geneva: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.
• ISDR,2005 "Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters: Hyogo Framework for action 2005-2015" adopted at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR) Kobe, Japan, 18-22 January 2005.
• IUCN 2005, "Rapid environmental and socio-economic assessment of tsunami-damage in terrestrial and marine coastal ecosystems of Ampara and Batticaloa districts of eastern Sri Lanka". Available online at http://www.iucn.org/tsunami/resources/iucn-reports.htm
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• Kelly, Charles (2001) Rapid Environmental Impact Assessment: A Framework for Best Practice in Emergency Response. Working Paper no. 3. London: Benfield Hazard Research Centre.
• OCHA (2003) " Tropical Depression Storm over Praslin and its Satellite Islands in Seychelles", Assessment Report, November 2003
• OCHA 2005, "Situation Reports" Virtual OSOCC website - http://www.ocha.unog.ch/virtual osocc/
• Research Group on The December 26, 2004 Earthquake Tsunami Disaster of Indian Ocean, Kyoto: Kyoto University
• UNEP, 2004, "Environmental Management and Disaster preparedness: Lessons Learnt from the Tokage Typhoon (Typhoon 23 of 2004) in Japan". Osaka: United Nations Environment Programme. Available online at - http://www.unep.or.jp/ietc/wcdr/unep-tokage-report.pdf
• UNEP 2005, "After the Tsunami: Rapid Environmental Assessment" Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme.
• UNEP 2005, "Report of the Workshop on Disaster Waste Management", Banda Aceh: Workshop organized by UNEP and BAPEDDALDA, July 2005.
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Session 1:  Science papers,  Background materials:    Guest:  Art Lerner-Lam,  Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Session 2:  Popular articles Session 3:  Guest:   E&ESJ student Mohi Kumar,  newly returned from reporting in tsunami-striken part of India.

Science Questions

What causes tsunamis?

What is the continental slope? What is the continental shelf? How wide and deep is the continental shelf?

What techniques are used to study earth processes on the continental shelf and slope?

What conditions favor slope failure on the continental slope?

What are gas hydrates, and where do they occur?

What do gas hydrates have to do with landslide hazard?

What do gas hydrates have to do with global warming?

• The background section of the reading book contains an article called “2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake”  from the Wikipedia.  What is the Wikipedia?  Of what use can it be to use as a journalist trying to come up to speed on a new topic? 

•  What value-added to on-line visualizations bring relative to static pictures in newpaper?

See http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/visualization/collections/tsunami.html

• We have a section in this reading book we haven’t had in other cases:  “Materials for Public Education & Preparedness.” This is a kind of science writing,  but different from most of what we have read this year.   What is different about these kinds of materials from most science writing?

• The Guardian,  January 2, 2005,  had a compilation of press clippings on the topic of “Nature is Cruel;  People are Kind.”  Do you agree that this has been a theme of the coverage?   If so, do you think the emergence of this message will help or hurt environmentalism, sustainability etc?

• Letter to the Science Times, 11 Jan 2005 fro Allan Lindh, former chief seismologist of USGS suggests that CNN is available all over the globe and is widely watched and trusted.  “Maybe it’s time for CNN to stop just reporting the news and start doing something about it.”  Do you think this is a good idea?

• NY Times  11 Jan 2005, Cornelia Dean re why people live near the sea even though it is dangerous.   “In rich countries, people live on the coast because they can….In poor countries,  people live in harm’s way because they must.”   Why do people in rich countries want to live by the coast?

•  People magazine,  17 Jan 2005 issue, spent many pages on the Indian Ocean disaster,  well written and extensively illustrated.  But there was no clue, in all that coverage,  about the cause of the disaster.   How, within the constraints of People’s format and goals,  could some clues about earth processes have been interwoven?

• How do east coast and European newspapers try to give this a local angle?

• Did you find any errors of fact?

• Which article(s) did a good job of explaining how a tsunami warning system works?

• What coverage  has there been of the potential impact on ecosystems?

• Which article(s) did a good job of making a connection between  tsunamis/earthquakes and the sweep of history?

• Religion and science were contrasted as alternative  ways of making sense out of the tsunami and earthquake.  Is this useful?  

• The reading book includes coverage from the Hindu, “India’s National Newspaper,”  and “Frontline,” “India’s National Magazine.”  How does this coverage,  in a country hit by the tsunami, differ from that in the US?

• What are the major themes that you saw repeated again and again in the coverage?

• Can you think of any science/technology/environment  angles that were not explored in any of the articles we read?

• Why is this particular disaster getting so much attention in the media?

2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, 2004.  Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia,  Printed 1/6/05, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake

NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, 2004. ASTER Image Gallery: Phuket, Thailand, Printed 1/9/05, http://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/gallery.htm?name=Phuket

McDaris, John (compiled webpage), 2004. Teaching Geoscience with Visualizations: Using images, Animations, and Models Effectively,  Printed 1/7/05, http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/visualization/collections/tsunami.html

Associated Press, 2004, Chronology: tsunamis. The Guardian, Sunday Dec. 26, 2004.

Torres, Luc, 2004, Ten biggest earthquakes: From Chile to Indonesia. The Guardian, Monday Dec. 27, 2004.

Sleep, N. and K. Fujita, 1997,  Section 9.4: The Earthquake Cycle and Earthquake Prediction, pgs. 435-440.  Principles of Geophysics, Blackwell Scientific, 586 pp. 

Thurman, H. V.,  1997, “ Waves” pgs. 232-248.  Introductory Oceanography, 8th edition, Prentice Hall,  544 pp.

Ward, Steven and Simon Day, 2001, Cumbre Vieja Volcano - Potential collapse and tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands. Geophysical Research Letters, 28(17), 3397-3400, 10.1029/2001GL013110.

Summarized by L. Kong (ITIC) from International Tsunami Symposium 2001 Proceedings,

E. N. Bernard, F.I. Gonzalez, C. Meinig, and H. B. Milburn, Early detection and real-time reporting of deep-ocean tsunamis, NTHMP Review Session, Paper R-6

M.C. Eble, S. E. Stalin and E. F. Burger, Acquisition and Quality assurance of DART data, Session 5, Paper 5-9.

Dart Buoys provide real-time reporting of tsunamis, Tsunami Newsletter, Vol XXXIV, No.2, pp4.

National Disaster Education Coalition: American red Cross, FEMA, IAEM,IBHS, NFPA, NWS, USDA/CSREES AND USGS, Tsunami.  Talking about disaster: Guide for standard messages, pp. 121-128.

Atwater, Brian, Marco Cisternas, Joanne Bourgeois, Walter Dudley, James Hendley II, and Peter Stauffer, 1999, Surviving a Tsumani – Lessons from Chile, Hawaii and Japan .  U. S. Geological Survey Circular 1187, Version 1.0 , 40 pp.

Washington Military Department: Emergency Management Division, How the Smart family survived a tsunami: Elementary edition K-6.

Popular Articles

Raj, N. Gopal, 2004,  Tsunami returns after 60 years. The Hindu, December 27, 2004. 

Adam, David, 2004, How gigantic quakes occur.  The Guardian, December 28, 2004.

Leitsinger, Miranda, 2004, Asia contemplates warning system.  Journal News (AP), December 28, 2004.

Johnson, Carolyn, Y., 2004, Huge quake resonates across oceans, continents.  Boston Globe, December 28, 2004.

Daley, Beth, 2004, N. E. is not immune, scientists warn.  Boston Globe, December 28, 2004.

Kayla, Michele and Matthew Wald, 2004, At warning center, alert for the quake, none for a tsunami.  New York Times, December 28, 2004.

Blakeslee, Sandra, 2004,  Mercilessly unpredictable quakes defy seismologists.  New York Times, Science Times (Tuesday), December 28, 2004.

Beg, Sulaiman, 2004,  Technology could have saved lives: Lamont scientist says system in use.  Journal News, December 28, 2004.

Verrengia, Jospeh B., 2004, ‘Megathrust’ bulldozed Sumatra.  Journal News (AP), December 28, 2004.

Lane, Alexander, 2004, Not even New Jersey’s shore is tsunami-proof.  The Star Ledger (Newark), December 29, 2004.

Batty, David and David Callaghan, 2004,  Tsunami health hazards.  Guardian Unlimited, December 29, 2004.

Smith, Craig, 2004, A tragedy in Asia affects all corners of a closer world, NY Times, December 29, 2004.

Srinivasan, S. 2004, Disease lurks as survivors surrounded by filth, bodies.  The Journal news (AP), December 29, 2004.

Staff, 2004, Sophisticated system to be installed to detect deep sea movements.  The Hindu, December 30, 2004.

Murphy, Dan, 2004, Ripple effects of Indonesia’s geological events.  Christian Science Monitor, December 30, 2004.

Dawkins, Richard, 2004, Science saves.  The Guardian, December 30, 2004.

Stoddard, Ed, 2004, Tsunami adds to belief in animals’ ‘sixth sense’.  Science-Reuters, December 30, 2004.

McGuire, Bill, 2004, We need a warning system too, The Guardian, December 30, 2004.

Hoge, Warren, 2004, U. N. urges expansion of tsunami warning system to Indian Ocean.  New York Times, December 30, 2004.

Altman, Lawrence, 2004, Water is key to averting epidemics along coast, New York Times, December 30, 2004.

Associated Press, 2004, West coast of U.S. ripe for disaster, Journal News, December 30, 2004.

Moore, Matt, 2004, Worried families pin hopes to Web, The Journal News, December 30, 2004.

Adam, David, 2004, Seabed sensors could stop scares, The Guardian, December 31,  2004.

Nelson, Sue, 2004, Did animals have quake warnings, BBC News UK Edition, December 31,  2004.

Bonnell, Keith, 2004, Asia’s tsunami spurs memories of tidal wave that shook Newfoundland in 1920s, MacCleans, December 31,  2004.

Revkin, Andrew, 2004, How scientists and victims watched helplessly, New York Times, December 31,  2004, Page A-1.

Anon., 2004, Earthquake ‘redraws the map’.  BBC News, December 31,  2004.

Anon, 2005,  Asia’s devastation, The Economist.   January 1st 2005, Page 1.

Anon, 2005, Run like the wind , The Economist.   January 1st 2005.

Ramachandran, R. 2005, The tsunami phenomenon, Frontline. 22 (1) 1-14, January 2005.

Anon, 2005, Web to the rescue.  The Guardian, January 1, 2005.

McNeil, Donald, 2005, How nature changes history.  New York Times: Week in Review, January 2, 2005.

Revkin, Andrew, 2005, The future of calamity (including graphic).  New York Times: Week in Review, January 2, 2005.

Robinson, James, 2005, How the world heard the grim news, Observer, January 2, 2005.

McKie, Robin, 2005, Warnings could save thousands, Observer, January 2, 2005.

Associated Press, 2005, Asia’s deadly tsunami: How much is too much when covering tragedy? MSNBC Entertainment , January 2, 2005.

Spotts, Peter, 2005, The next frontiers in tsunami science. Christian Science Monitor, January 3, 2005.

Riddell, Mary, 2005, Nature is vicious and people are kind. The Guardian, January 3, 2005.

Nadu, Tamil, 2005, The old man and the sea. The Hindu, January 3, 2005.

Dhar, Aarti, 2005, Immense damage to ecology feared in Andamans.  The Hindu, January 3, 2005.

Nadu, Tamil, 2005, Tsunami has not affected marine life.  The Hindu , January 3, 2005.

Consolidated Reporting, 2005, Tsunami. Time, January 10, 2005, pgs. 30-37.

Shute, Nancy, 2005, Now the second wave.  U.S. News & World Report, January 10, 2005, pgs. 20-22.

Murr, Andrew, Jennifer Ordonez and Fred Guterl, 2005, Death from the deep.  Newsweek, January 10, 2005, pgs. 38-44.

Anon, 2005,  New heroes, new hope.  People, January 17, 2005, pg. 97.

Chang, Kenneth, 2005, In past tsunamis, tantalizing clues to future ones, New York Times, Science Times, January 4, 2005.

Anon, 2005, Nature’s way.  The Guardian, January 4, 2005.

Wright, 2005, Political Cartoon, The Journal News, January 5, 2005.

Bhaumik, Subir, 2005, Andaman coral ‘hit by tsunami’. BBC, January 5, 2005.

Broder, David, 2005, Scientific response to catastrophe, The Journal News, January 6, 2005. 

Okrent, Daniel, 2005, No picture tells the truth: The best do better than that.  New York Times, January 9, 2005.

Lindh, Allan, 2005, Letters to Science Times.  New York Times, January 11, 2005.

Broad, William J., 2005, Deadly and yet necessary, quakes renew the planet.  New York Times, Science Times, January 11, 2005.

Dean, Cornelia, 2005, A modern peril: Living near the jaws of the sea.  New York Times, January 11, 2005. 

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Sea surface temperatures of Indian Ocean could help predict dengue outbreaks globally: Study

Abnormal trends in sea surface temperatures could help predict dengue epidemics

Abnormal trends in sea surface temperatures of the Indian Ocean could help predict trends in global dengue epidemics, including case numbers and how they might change with time, according to new research.

Scientists said that these observed abnormal temperatures, which are a 'climate indicator', could help enhance the forecasting and planning for outbreak responses.

Currently, precipitation and temperature are some of the climate indicators that are being used as early warning systems to forecast disease trends such as dengue, they said.

The team, including researchers from Beijing Normal University, China, explained that, for example, events associated with warmer sea surface temperatures, driven by El Nino, are known to influence how dengue is transmitted around the world by affecting mosquito breeding.

Being able to predict the risk of outbreaks and prepare for them can be crucial for many regions, especially those where the mosquito-borne disease is endemic, or constantly present.

However, the authors said there were gaps in our understanding of long-distance climate drivers of dengue outbreaks. Their findings are published in the journal Science.

In this study, the researchers used data on yearly dengue cases reported from across each of the 46 Southeast Asian and American countries from 1990-2019. Data of monthly cases from 24 of these countries reported from 2014-19 was also used for analysis.

Through modelling, the team drew associations between changes in climate patterns around the world and those in seasonal and yearly case numbers during dengue epidemics.

They found that dengue epidemics around the world were "closely" linked with abnormalities in sea surface temperatures of the tropical Indian Ocean.

"We identify a distinct indicator, the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index, as representing the regional average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. IOBW is closely associated with dengue epidemics for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres," the authors wrote.

In the three months before a dengue outbreak, the IOBW index was found to be a crucial factor in predicting the disease magnitude and timing of outbreaks per year in each hemisphere. The ability of IOBW to predict dengue incidence likely arises due to its effect on regional temperatures, the researchers said.

"These findings indicate that the IOBW index can potentially enhance the lead time for dengue forecasts, leading to better-planned and more impactful outbreak responses," the authors wrote.

They, however, cautioned that more assessments are needed to evaluate the performance of their model in predicting dengue epidemics.

"Although our model demonstrates its capability to capture observed patterns, making premature claims about its predictive ability without rigorous validation of future data would be unjustified," the authors wrote. 

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