thesis driven investment

Thematic vs Thesis Driven Investing

As the venture business has grown and matured, many firms have developed specific areas of focus. Our firm, Union Square Ventures , for example only invests in web services. I believe this is a good thing for both the investors in venture funds, called LPs, and the entrepreneurs.

But there are a number of ways that firms can execute their focus on a particular area. Two of the most popular are "thematic investing" and "thesis driven investing".

They are very different.

Thematic investing involves identifying big themes and going after them. Examples from the world of web services would be "social networking", "online video", "ad networks", "social media", "real time", "mobile". I know many VCs who go about it this way. They identify the themes and then get busy filling out their portfolio with companies that fit those themes.

Thesis driven investing involves drawing a picture of where your particular area of focus is going. I like to take a five to ten year view. And once you have mapped out that picture, it becomes your thesis. And you evaluate every investment you make in the context of that thesis.

The two venture firms I've been involved in founding are good examples of these two approaches. Flatiron Partners was largely a thematic oriented firm. We identified the web as a big theme and within it we identified content, commerce, and community. And we made big bets in those themes. It worked out pretty well but we didn't see the web changing at the end of the decade as much as we should have.

Union Square Ventures is a thesis driven firm. I owe that to my founding partner, Brad Burnham , who has the discipline to force everyone to do the work to develop our thesis and the discipline to make sure we put each and every investment through the thesis test.

Just last week, we were meeting with one of our LPs and I was talking about the mobile web in that meeting. Later that afternoon, Brad walked into my office and put our thesis on web vs mobile web on the table and we made sure we were seeing the mobile sector play out the same way. An important factor in thesis driven investing is everyone in the firm needs to buy into the thesis or it won't work.

Thematic investing is good for bigger firms. It allows each partner to pick a couple themes and go after them. Thesis driven investing is good for smaller firms. It requires a tight team that works to keep themselves on the same page executing after a singular vision.

I believe thesis driven investing produces the best returns when the thesis is directionally correct and probably also the worst returns when the thesis is wrong. I believe thematic investing works less well because it can lead to "bucket filling" where the firm just runs around filling the themes with deals without much thought to why and how they will work. It also leads to a lot of "me too" investing which is a scourge that the venture industry can't seem to figure out how to rid itself of.

But both thematic investing and thesis driven investing are better than a generalist approach because they both promote domain expertise which is critical to building a sustainable investment advantage. I think "generalist" or "opportunistic" investing is likely to underperform domain expert driven investing in all but the most turbulent markets.

It would be good to talk more about how one goes about building a five to ten year map of where an industry is headed. That's a longer conversation than I have time for this morning. But I'll leave you with the thought that this blog is a part of how I build mine.

Comments (Archived):

Very interesting post. One thing I learned from a smart VC friend who does thesis driven investing: if you have a thesis, you also need to have an anti-thesis. So for example list things in the mobile web that thematic mobile web investors would like but you don’t like. It’s a good discipline to make sure you are really taking a position and not just adopting a theme.

that’s a great point and it is exactly the conversation brad and i had in myoffice. i was talking up the mobile web to one of our LPs and he came in andsaid, “let’s talk about what we wouldn’t invest in the mobile web”

Alastair Mackintosh who taught me most of what I know about strategy in my first two years out of university used to say ‘a good strategy says as much about what you aren’t going to do as what you are’. Most of the funds I know would find thesis based investing tough to execute on precisely because most VC partners value opportunism and hate ruling things out in the way a good strategy/thesis demands. In general I would suspect that greater forethought and discipline must produce better results, provided the thesis is correct, as you say.

Best advice I ever got as a young person when talking to an old professor: Just narrow down your major by what you hate. It worked.It’s because you know what you love inside and you have to give yourself strong reasons for why you want to do it that way.

Nice point Chris. This will probably seem a bit abstract, but your test of authenticity reminds me of people at the Santa Fe Institute and some of the business ideas it gave rise to. They’d tell you, e.g., with reference to where resources should be directed for SFI programs, that things should run (at least partly) along complex systems and/or evolutionary lines, with selection pressure, fitness, etc. The analogous acid test is that in that case (most!) things should go extinct. If the guiding principal is not just something that sounds nice in theory (like “thesis” based investments), show us those things – or at least assure yourself that they exist. I hope that makes some sense 🙂

Funny how the thesis investment model maps into semantic algorithms. Recognizing negative associations is vital to producing meaningful results. Also in art the use of shadows and blank space, in audio the use of silence… the ying and the yang 😉

In an essay, I usually write the thesis last- mostly because I want to see the point/counterpoint. What do you think is best way to develop the thesis/antithesis is?

I think you are using the word “theme” where you really mean “trend” or “sector”. When I first started talking about “themes” in 2006, I don’t think I heard the word very much – I remember specifically searching for a word that was different than “sector” since I’d lived through the “big firm sector approach” at Mobius. Now that theme is “trendy”, I hear it all the time, which is kind of a meta-trend (to be a “theme-oriented VC”).Another differentiator – which you point out – is whether each partner (or groups of partners) work on different “themes” (sectors/trends) or if everyone works on the same stuff. The power of a small firm is that everyone can work on the same stuff – I’m always amazed when I run into small VC firms (five people or less) that have partners working on different things and subsequently don’t get the leverage of a small team.At the end of the day I know it’s just semantics since it’s all about the underlying strategy the VC firm has. And – as you know – I like yours a lot!

i used the word thematic because it’s been rattling around in my brain for afew daysbut sector bets or trend chasing is a better way to describe what i call”thematic”words matter so i take your pointand the small firm where everyone works on the same stuff is a powerfulmodel as you and I both know

“Thematic” investing is the exact phrase used by a lot of PMs in the public markets.

do you see your thesis as your magic sauce, is it your main competitive advantage?Or would you theoretically be happy it being made public on the basis that having a map doesnt neccessarily mean finding the treasure? (or some other similarly bad metaphor)

i try to make our thesis public every day on this blogthere’s no way i would ever try to keep it a secret since this communityhelps us develop it

I’m amazed each and every time I witness collaborative creation. AVC does it time and time again. Any business can learn from yours, and your firms work in this space.It is by far the most valuable meta-lesson I’ve picked up while reading here. The desire density to create and unleash value here is “the secret sauce”.

Have we shifted the thesis in some way far from the original points when it was developed. I mean., we sit around and play pundit, but the points we raise may push the thesis in interesting directions.I wonder this only because I’m doing my own thesis right now, and this is why they give us critiques and thesis advisers. They hope that the push will shape the thesis and push it left, right, and center, in order to make it stronger.So have we ever forced a major change that in the end made the thesis stronger.

it’s like successful film distributors who knows the genre, the audience for that genre , the market, the territories… and even when they will hurt the filmmaker (and their own reputation) by taking on the investment in a project they don’t understand. Question is …when do you turn from a focus or theme? and I wonder how many “new” vc’s do what “new” distributors do and just buy into everything trendy because they have to get a portfolio. I think you (and Brad) have a long history to discover a niche and that your theme/s were correct. “New” investors .. diversification is sometimes a mantra isn’t it? Just wondering…is that just my ridiculously simplified interpretation ? Didn’t your themes originally come from successes in a subjective (although be it small) array of investment? Like I say …just wondering

Its a good analogyWe like to evolve our thesis all the time and gradually instead of all at one

In essence thesis investing predicts a picture of the future landscape of an industry or market sector. Sounds dangerous, since in my recent evolutionary engineering readings, the only thing you can count on is the ingenuity of people to do something you never expected.If thesis is more concerned with a gradually unfocused estimate of the future about a direction then I can see the advantage.In system state prediction you can predict the near term slightly better if you knew everything (omniscient). But by recognizing attractors in future system states you can simplify the guessing game. Aka your conditional probability and estimate of states is better than a random guess, so investment will pay off.Very interesting Fred. Look forward to experiencing more investment based model prediction. Go Brad!

The thing is, people like producing in Waves. So people may act in random bits, but those random bits come together in huge chunks. It’s why we are all so wierded out by black swans. The past may not predict the future, but how far off is it? And what tell tale signs about ourselves in our past can tell us about our future. It’s horrible exciting and horribly stressfully and horribly wonderful.In some ways I’m jealous of Fred. I like developing the thesis. Seems like fun.

Really like the distinction between theme and thesis and agree that theses have the potential to out-perform themes.But some theses that you hear are so broad that it’s just a cover for opportunistic investing. When an investor’s thesis is exposing information to the web, he can invest in almost any web startup.By the way, if all investors published their theses as publicly as you do, it would save entrepreneurs plenty of time, making the whole process more efficient. There’s a giant pool of money on one side and all sorts of ideas on the other, and the two sides too often grope in the dark toward one another.

That’s the idea. Increase efficiency through transparency

It seems like the maturity of the technology or industry might be important as well. When VC’s were dumping money into semiconductor companies 20 years ago, thematic investing made sense because nobody knew exactly where the industry was going and there was perceived opportunity everywhere. If you want to invest in a semiconductor company now you better have a specific thesis and a good reason.Perhaps the thematic approach at Flatiron was prudent (though susceptible to following the crowd) because the web was a lot younger then. It would have been impossible to know exactly where it was going. But at this point you have a much stronger feel on where web apps and mobile and social media will be heading over the next few years. So you can have a specific thesis and execute on it.Just a thought…

I think you have a point about market maturity and the value of thematic investing within it

1. I think that’s a valid construct. As the market matures, greater specialization and industry knowledge is required to generate an edge – including a view that goes down the road a number of years.2. Can’t help but wonder where we are in that shift in Cleantech. Thematic is likely finished, since everyone and their brother wants a piece, but how much of that vision is required at this point?

I would call it rule based investing. Regardless if your rules are based on theme, thesis, predictions or guru-like feelings. If an investment passes all rules then then it’s a go.Perhaps this is over-generic but I think it is applicable at least in mind.

I agree more than 100%. Rules for ourselves are the most important rules we can ever enact — self discipline.

How do you develop the rules though…really.

I think making your thesis public in this blog helps set the expectations of the entrepreneurs who read it. I’ve only been reading for a couple of months but I already have a great sense of what UVC is looking for in terms of companies, entrepreneurs & deal-making. All those elements to the firm are clearly informed by the UVC thesis which, in turn, is informed by the AVC. It’s a virtuous circle.

i think you are leaving out an important discussion point– the venture capital asset class.how do the returns differ between a top thematic based fund and a top theme based fund? although i am a thesis based investor myself, when it comes to vc, i would argue that a top theme based fund has a much higher statistical expectancy than a second tier thesis based fund.id like to think that even theme based funds have some sort of thesis within each theme. as an lp, i would be pretty nervous if i was invested in a fund that “just runs around filling the themes with deals without much thought to why and how they will work”

I’ve never seen data on this. I’m not even sure its possible to compile it since firms don’t talk about themselves in this way very often

I agree– I’m just speculating. I imagine there has to be a fairly strongcorrelation with the asset class. At the end of the day, if you can’t createa good deal flow, your returns will be sub par no matter what strategy youhave.

I imagine in your thesis driven approach that it would be valuable to revisit that thesis on a periodic basis with a critical eye to see if the environment has changed in a way that would impact your thesis, especially with the speeding up of change in the Internet.

Fred, does USV map the different potential outcomes for its thesis and assign probabilities of success or do you guys decide on a path and revise every so often?

We are not particularly analytical but we do revisit our theses often

What happens if your thesis changes so significantly that some of your portfolio companies become a lot less attractive? Is such a radical shift in the thesis even possible?

It happens. But once we make an investment we try to stick with it as long as it is working

I wish I had answers for this myself.I’m hedging that from what I read here, parts of this thesis can be very radicalizing depending on the company in play. Some of those companies haven’t been developed yet. We’re using fluffy terms to make it sound happy-However, I seriously wonder only because I just scared* a friend of mine based off some ideas that developed from my participation here with an art project I’m running off of Facebook. It implies a lot about the institutions underpinning websites, and what all it means about having an identity here, among other things. If these spaces change, does the thesis change? All sorts of questions I wonder about a little too much…*Sometimes scaring people in art is a good thing. See Jenny Holzer if you don’t believe me.

I would love to hear more about how you map out your thesis and what factors are considered in predicting how things evolve 5-10 years down the road.

i think investors of all kinds will need to be more cognizant of global markets and how they are correlated, and what could change those correlations.

It really is a good thing to establish a certain area of interest, that is of course if you have a particular interest. For those that are interested in raising venture capital you can check out http://www.vcgate.com and you get the largest database of all that you can sort by interest, geographical location or stage investment. You can have a pretty accurate search according to your own preferences and you can save your time and that of the investors’ by contacting only those that are really interested in your activity field.

I think the key here is: static vs. dynamic.1) Theme: Snapshot at a point in time, across a wide spectrum2) Thesis: Some specific target longitudinally over time.The Theme approach fails when it’s not updated to reflect a changing marketplace and the Thesis approach fails if it doesn’t have the right target.

I think that’s right

Absolute believer that thesis driven investing results in superior results. First, you have superior understanding of the historical and competitive landscapes when evaluating new investments. Second, you are part of the ecosystem and can help make valuable connections for your entrepreneurs. That is what we do at Metamorphic Ventures.

Theme or sector driven investing are probably based on more specific domains of expertise that the VC’s have and can deliberately capitalize on. The thesis model drives on more of a conceptual/futurist style of thinking that intuitively identifies where things are heading and why. Its a more artistic approach. Like they say in NYC real estate…follow the artists!

Bohemian Capitalism! ’twas ever thus …. 😉

Bill Gates I believe said once : ” … people over estimate what can be achieved in a year, and underestimate what can be achieved in ten.”support thesis.

There is a distinction too, I think, between being an investor and an operator. While USV aren’t operators per se, you surely are pretty connected your teams and make an impact on their thinking, and vice versa. While I realize that the other VC shops tend to their teams as well, the big difference, to me, between thesis based and thematic based approaches is that thesis based teams aren’t passively noticing and investing in a macro level event (Internet growth, distressed real estate, etc.). Rather, you are aware of that context and are actively trying to execute good solutions within it. Both approaches obviously can and do work and there is a lot to be said for a shotgun approach to anything. Yet I can’t help but feel that the investors that really add value aren’t just investing in macro level events — they are picking spots, even small ones, and making them better and bigger and hopefully more valuable. Thesis types are putting themselves on the line more — THEY have a strategy — and it isn’t just investing in an emerging macro level concept. To me, even if the strategy is wrong from time to time, actively executing a thesis makes the LP’s, VC’s, and the firms all stronger and more valuable over the long haul.

We can over-(pseudo)-intellectualize.Let’s not forget good old simple SWOT analysis.

Agree completely. Never let the guy who lists the Ss to list the Ws. The Os, the Ts.Back in the LBO days when acquirers were trying to find the equilibrium level of top management to decapitate, there used to be an exercise which I called the “oh shit” exercise.A person would come into the room indicating that a particular member of the acquired enterprises senior management had gone missing until the entire room said — you guessed, it — “oh shit!”Everybody above the “oh shit” level got canned.

Lol, emotions – the great leveler in life – along with David’s underpants 😉

Damn I could have interviewed for LBO week.

One side bit of irony on this topic is that I reached out to a somewhat big-name VC on the topic of thesis-driven investing, and he chimed back that he felt that the secret to their success was that they specifically AREN’T thesis driven.While there are obviously multiple ways to reach a desired outcome, his response struck me as akin to the debate in stock investing – is better to have a macro thesis on the market, who wins, who loses and why…or, simply play the momentum game.

I suspect that there are many ways of organizing one’s thinking — planning — which are not mutually exclusive as it relates to results. As long as you do not take timing into consideration.For all those who worship at Buffet/Munger/Berkshire Hathaway’s altar (cound me amongst them, please), their slide on the way down was just a bad as everybody elses’. A flop sweat kind of hard landing.In a rising market, all boats float. In a falling market, all boats are grounded. It’s that damn ebb tide which is where the outcome is a bit uncertain.In life, timing is everything.

Good point. There is a tendency for any of these approaches to be subject to the tyranny of the ALL or NONE (i.e., I am theme based OR I am thesis based) since binary logic is easier for people to get their heads around than managing nuance and paradox. So much is timing and luck bound, but having a good, coherent plan, and metrics that frame whether than plan is working or not remains key.

As I was reading the post and the comments, I was reminded of the famous Fidelity fund manager Peter Lynch, who by coincidence JLM also mentioned here a few days ago.Lynch was famous for holding many more stocks than his peers. The running joke was that it was quicker to ask him which ones he didn’t like. He used to take small positions just to remind himself to keep an eye on certain companies – the way most other people would use post-its.The funny thing is that he didn’t really have a thesis (he was very bottom-up). People analyzed his portfolio, and how it changed over time, and provided him with a variety of ex-post sector and macro based thesi(?).Oddly, he agreed with them, and used them as the chapter headings for his most famous book.I’m not sure how any of this adds to the conversation, but I quite enjoyed writing it.

“I’m not sure how any of this adds to the conversation, but I quite enjoyed writing it.”Hahahahaha, the pleasure seeking musings of a true thinker, a sybarite, a voluptary, a bon vivant, a true hedonist! A man unafraid to walk around in his intellectual underwear! LOLThe world needs more people like you, my friend! I aspire to be such a man myself. LOL

After a quick rendezvous with a dictionary, I can only say I’m humbled by your words – but alas, much as I would like to believe them – who wouldn’t? – they describe a better man than I.Fred is right, JLM, you’re the real deal.

Don’t be so modest, David – however, as a fellow Brit’ I realise it’s a problem with us chaps – I am sure your underpants are up to the accolades!

Hahahaha! All the more so if they are just a bit disreputable.Years ago I used to go to Board meetings at Lower Slaughter in the Cotswolds (coinciding w/ the races at Cheltenham) to an inn whose every room was named after the owner’s misstresses. There were a fair number of rooms at this inn and one had to admire the vigor, to say nothing of the generosity, of the owner.This is the type of genuine sensualist the truth unleashes in every man sufficiently courageous to simply mouth the truth. The first truth which comes into ones mind. Not the pasteurized, homogenized politically correct truth which enslaves our most natural instincts.It’s something I have always admired about the British. Of course, America got all of the real adventurers and quite a few of the criminals.

you know it! always gotta drop the truth.

Class anecdote!The biggest problems facing us in business, life, society … a lack of character, honesty, courage, pride, trust, guts … watching ‘Into the Storm’ re: WInston Churchill just now brings that home more than ever.There are too many weak, selfish, corrupt and pretentious people in government, life, business, the media. We need change – and fast.The March of the Underpants!

I have said before that one of the very best presents I have ever received is a set of Winston Churchill’s speeches. The quality of them is not universally good which serves to increase the sense of authenticity. They are simply awe inspiring. I love them.I listen to them enroute to my lake house which takes 55 minutes to reach — the time of one or two of WC’s best speeches. This is because they sit in a dirty, nasty pick up truck which my wife allows me only to drive to and from the lakehouse, the dump and our house (arriving after dark preferably).Invariably whatever chore I am doing when I arrive, I attack it with some considerably increased vigor while still under Winston’s spell.I have a wonderful black lab — who I like generally more than most people I know for her trustworthiness alone though she is an unrepentant deer chaser — who sits perfectly straight on the seat next to me very, very respectfully while Mr Churchill is speaking and barks immediately whenever the speech ends.I cannot tell whether it is applause, agreement or impatience to hear another.On a very serious note, I often wonder if we are producing any more George Marshalls, DD Eisenhowers or Winston Churchills? They were all that kept evil at bay in the world during their time.Churchill literally talked Hitler out of invading England at the instant of the highest probability of success for the Germans.

well if all the englishmen are comparing underpants here are minehttp://www.2wheels.org.uk/r…

Oh God, *blush*

Tying in a few threads, was is not Churchill who said (of Atlee, I think) “He’s a modest man with much to be modest about” – that’s me alright.That said, I would never have anticipated my petticoats had the potential to inspire such heated debate 🙂

I’m gonna meet JLM this month. Super excited about that

And rightly so. You two are going to have a whale of time!

David, I don’t always agree with you, but you sure are witty, and I’ve learned a lot by reading your stuff/

Thanks Shana, very kind.

is it really “web vs the mobile web”? really like web AND the mobile web, where a venture has web focus with extreme mobile outreach. i believe mobile will be the biggest gateway to the whole web.

Another fabulous topic and a wonderful discussion.I suspect that venture capitalists know more about strategy than most business folks and with very few exceptions are the least disciplined strategic executives. VCs simply change the plan. They are, many times, just deal junkies. Not that being a deal junkie with great instincts is going to get in the way of making a ton of money, mind you.I am convinced that the most underappreciated element of business planning today is truly strategic THINKING — not some cook book SWOT MBA exercise designed to reduce real THINKING to a single index card but truly visionary no holds barred THINKING. The kind of thinking that tempts your colleagues to review the laws pertaining to involuntary commitment on psychiatric grounds.Any plan is better than no plan. Any amount of thinking is better than no thinking. The fact that the brilliant folks who people this blog stumble over the meaning of words — which is a good thing because it is prima facie evidence of thinking shows how important it is. Words mean something.Real strategic thinking about investing is to planning what gelato is to ice cream.

JLM, why don’t you blog on that subject. Seriously. About how to really think. I wish I had time to go back to product analysis. It made me happy. You seem to really believe in the subject, and we love your comments. I would read it.

If I might add….as long as one is committed to thinking, it’s probably best to THINK BIG.

One of many reasons I blog is it requires that I think

Both “thematic investing” and “thesis driven investing” are overly abstracted strategies. Any effort spent analyzing overarching worldviews is detracting from tactics and execution on the ground.

One of investors I met early in my career used to day ‘get the strategy right and execution is easy’

Enlightening! I had been aware of many of the differences but hadn’t thought of it so clearly.Does geopolitical scenario planning factor into thesis driven firms?Not that the Iranian election situation could have been predicted, but surely a scenario that includes political upheaval in a media-restricted state might suggest the role mobile micro-blogging would play.

It doesn’t come into play much in our investing but I sure hope it does within the halls of our government

From an LP’s point of view and in my experience, the main difference between thematic and thesis driven strategies is that thematic investing can do quite well at exploiting cycles and cyclical growth while thesis driven investment exploits growth that is more persistent through the cycle be it economic or technology. The counterpoint is that thematic investing can easily fall victim to cycles that are shorter than the life of an investment. It is also vulnerable to crowding out, where too much capital chasing a theme undermines returns. On the whole, I prefer thesis driven investment strategies.

great discussion, as always. some additional questions/topics to think about:– are they mutually exclusive? don’t theses usually exist within specific themes? or often across themes?– how many theses should one investor/firm pursue simultaneously?– what’s the best way to mine a thesis for investment opportunities?much to chew on…

Great questions MoIf you are truly thesis driven, you start with one big macros thesis and then let the sub-theses flow from thatI suppose you could create theses for each theme but I don’t like to do it that wayMy answer to the last question is broadcast your theses and be flypaper

Both approaches have their merits.It’s ego-driven investing that worries me.

Good point Carl.Proper investment requires total intellectual honesty – perhaps not by coincidence, another Lynch quote.

Good stuff both in the post and comments. My immediate reaction was to compare it to financial markets where you have so many various strategies being employed. Many of them work, and it just depends on the goals, timeframes, risk tolerances etc of the manager and investors as to which one you pursue. But the overriding commonality between the comparison is you do what works best for you and what you’re comfortable with.Thematic vs Thesis seems most comparable to Global Macro (secular theme) versus Bottom-up Fundamental (Thesis or company specific) if you were going to shift it to publicly traded companies. Interesting to see these differences drawn across different types of investment (public vs private) though certainly.

It’s tough to argue with a well written and thought-out post like this one. At the end of the day, VCs have a list of things they do, and things they don’t do; and in my recent experience speaking with a number of them, these lists go beyond the boundaries of themes and thesis. Any investment has to align with their beliefs- whether these beliefs are right or wrong is subjective, because it’s all based on assumptions.

Twitter Should Go For A Netscape-Like IPO http://nxy.in/tjhq1 http://technbiz.blogspot.co …

Fred, what are your thoughts on Growth Equity which is typically more thesis driven? What are the most successful theme focused VC’s and do any ever remain successful in the long run?

I think themes work better in growth equity. I don’t really know who is the best at that game

Well anyone can do Thesis driven investment and/or other thesis driven developments; the question I would like to ask is what makes you good at it; maybe it’s not possible to answer but following what you are writing about and comparing it to other sources I would probably lean towards a Thematic knowledge approach; get as many buckets you can and fill them with information for later filtering and remixing ending up with thesis thinking to work with? Like filling the white spots on a map lets you get to know the art of map making and then you would know which map makers are good or not..Well, just another comment in the bucket :-

the top funds, regardless of investment style have a higher statistical expectancy for a number of reasons. leveraging past successes can help increase unsolicited deal flow (the best deals chase the best funds) and even lower the price of deals which will boost returns. a top tier theme based fund will have a higher long run statistical expectancy than a second or third tier thesis based fund.

I don’t think you understand the point I am making.I am talking about venture capital as an asset class.I am sure that there are many excellent second tier firms. They still don’thave the highest statistical expectancy (it is possible that over time theyare able to move into the top tier).

Already do. I’ve seen the numbers. The good guys win. Add Foundry to your list

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What Is an Investment Thesis?

• Understanding the Thesis

Special Considerations

• What's Included?

The Bottom Line

• Portfolio Management

Investment Thesis: An Argument in Support of Investing Decisions

Charlene Rhinehart is a CPA , CFE, chair of an Illinois CPA Society committee, and has a degree in accounting and finance from DePaul University.

The term investment thesis refers to a reasoned argument for a particular investment strategy, backed up by research and analysis. Investment theses are commonly prepared by (and for) individual investors and businesses. These formal written documents may be prepared by analysts or other financial professionals for presentation to their clients.

Key Takeaways

• An investment thesis is a written document that recommends a new investment, based on research and analysis of its potential for profit.
• Individual investors can use this technique to investigate and select investments that meet their goals.
• Financial professionals use the investment thesis to pitch their ideas.

Understanding the Investment Thesis

As noted above, an investment thesis is a written document that provides information about a potential investment. It is a research- and analysis-based proposal that is usually drafted by an investment or financial professional to provide insight into investments and to pitch investment ideas. In some cases, the investor will draft their own investment thesis, as is the case with venture capitalists and private equity firms.

This thesis can be used as a strategic decision-making tool. Investors and companies can use a thesis to decide whether or not to pursue a particular investment, such as a stock or acquiring another company. Or it can be used as a way to look back and analyze why a particular decision was made in the first place—and whether it was the right one. Putting things in writing can have a huge impact on the direction of a potential investment.

Let's say an investor purchases a stock based on the investment thesis that the stock is undervalued . The thesis states that the investor plans to hold the stock for three years, during which its price will rise to reflect its true worth. At that point, the stock will be sold at a profit. A year later, the stock market crashes, and the investor's pick crashes with it. The investor recalls the investment thesis, relies on the integrity of its conclusions, and continues to hold the stock.

That is a sound strategy unless some event that is totally unexpected and entirely absent from the investment thesis occurs. Examples of these might include the 2007-2008 financial crisis or the Brexit vote that forced the United Kingdom out of the European Union (EU) in 2016. These were highly unexpected events, and they might affect someone's investment thesis.

If you think your investment thesis holds up, stick with it through thick and thin.

An investment thesis is generally formally documented, but there are no universal standards for the contents. Some require fast action and are not elaborate compositions. When a thesis concerns a big trend, such as a global macro perspective, the investment thesis may be well documented and might even include a fair amount of promotional materials for presentation to potential investing partners.

Portfolio management is now a science-based discipline, not unlike engineering or medicine. As in those fields, breakthroughs in basic theory, technology, and market structures continuously translate into improvements in products and in professional practices. The investment thesis has been strengthened with qualitative and quantitative methods that are now widely accepted.

As with any thesis, an idea may surface but it is methodical research that takes it from an abstract concept to a recommendation for action. In the world of investments, the thesis serves as a game plan.

What's Included in an Investment Thesis?

Although there's no industry standard, there are usually some common components to this document. Remember, an investment thesis is generally a proposal that is based on research and analysis. As such, it is meant to be a guide about the viability of a particular investment.

Most investment theses include (but aren't limited to) the following information:

• The investment in question
• The investment goal(s)
• Viability of the investment, including any trends that support the investment
• Potential downsides and risks that may be associated with the investment
• Costs and potential returns as well as any losses that may result

Some theses also try to answer some key questions, including:

• Does the investment align with the intended goal(s)?
• What could go wrong?
• What do the financial statements say?
• What is the growth potential of this investment?

Putting everything in writing can help investors make more informed decisions. For instance, a company's management team can use a thesis to decide whether or not to pursue the acquisition of a rival. The thesis may highlight whether the target's vision aligns with the acquirer or it may identify opportunities for growth in the market.

Keep in mind that the complexity of an investment thesis depends on the type of investor involved and the nature of the investment. So the investment thesis for a corporation looking to acquire a rival may be more in-depth and complicated compared to that of an individual investor who wants to develop an investment portfolio.

Examples of an Investment Thesis

Portfolio managers and investment companies often post information about their investment theses on their websites. The following are just two examples.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley ( MS ) is one of the world's leading financial services firms. It offers investment management services, investment banking, securities, and wealth management services. According to the company, it has five steps that make up its investment process, including idea generation, quality assessment, valuation, risk management , and portfolio construction.

When it comes to developing its investment thesis, the company tries to answer three questions as part of its quality assessment step:

• "Is the company a disruptor or is it insulated from disruptive change? 
• Does the company demonstrate financial strength with high returns on invested capital, high margins, strong cash conversion, low capital intensity and low leverage? 
• Are there environmental or social externalities not borne by the company, or governance and accounting risks that may alter the investment thesis?"

Connetic Ventures

Connetic Adventures is a venture capital firm that invests in early-stage companies. The company uses data to develop its investment thesis, which is made up of three pillars. According to its blog, there were three pillars or principles that contributed to Connetic's venture capital investment strategy. These included diversification, value, and follow-on—each of which comes with a pro and con.

Why Is an Investment Thesis Important?

An investment thesis is a written proposal or research-based analysis of why investors or companies should pursue an investment. In some cases, it may also serve as a historical guide as to whether the investment was a good move or not. Whatever the reason, an investment thesis allows investors to make better, more informed decisions about whether to put their money into a specific investment. This written document provides insight into what the investment is, the goals of the investment, any associated costs, the potential for returns, as well as any possible risks and losses that may result.

Who Should Have an Investment Thesis?

An investment thesis is important for anyone who wants to invest their money. Individual investors can use a thesis to decide whether to purchase stock in a particular company and what strategy they should use, whether it's a buy-and-hold strategy or one where they only have the stock for a short period of time. A company can craft its own investment thesis to help weigh out whether an acquisition or growth strategy is worthwhile.

How Do You Create an Investment Thesis?

It's important to put your investment thesis in writing. Seeing your proposal in print can help you make a better decision. When you're writing your investment thesis, be sure to be clear and concise. Make sure you do your research and include any facts and figures that can help you make your decision. Be sure to include your goals, the potential for upside, and any risks that you may come across. Try to ask and answer some key questions, including whether the investment meets your investment goals and what could go wrong if you go ahead with the deal.

It's always important to have a plan, especially when it comes to investing. After all, you are putting your money at risk. Having an investment thesis can help you make more informed decisions about whether a potential investment is worth your while. Make sure you put your thesis in writing and answer some key questions about your goals, costs, and potential outcomes. Having a concrete proposal in place can spell the difference between earning returns and losing all your money. And that's if your thesis supports the investment in the first place.

Harvard Business School. " Writing a Credible Investment Thesis ."

Lanturn. " What is an Investment Thesis and 3 Tips to Make One ."

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Medium. " The Data That Built Our Fund's Investment Thesis ."

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Writing a Credible Investment Thesis

Only a third of acquiring executives actually write down the reasons for doing a deal.

By David Harding and Sam Rovit

• November 15, 2004

Every deal your company proposes to do—big or small, strategic or tactical—should start with a clear statement how that particular deal would create value for your company. We call this the investment thesis. The investment thesis is no more or less than a definitive statement, based on a clear understanding of how money is made in your business, that outlines how adding this particular business to your portfolio will make your company more valuable. Many of the best acquirers write out their investment theses in black and white. Joe Trustey, managing partner of private equity and venture capital firm Summit Partners, describes the tool in one short sentence: "It tells me why I would want to own this business."

Perhaps you're rolling your eyes and saying to yourself, "Well, of course our company uses an investment thesis!" But unless you're in the private equity business—which in our experience is more disciplined in crafting investment theses than are corporate buyers—the odds aren't with you. For example, our survey of 250 senior executives across all industries revealed that only 29% of acquiring executives started out with an investment thesis (defined in that survey as a "sound reason for buying a company") that stood the test of time. More than 40% had no investment thesis whatsoever (!). Of those who did, fully half discovered within three years of closing the deal that their thesis was wrong.

Studies conducted by other firms support the conclusion that most companies are terrifyingly unclear about why they spend their shareholders' capital on acquisitions. A 2002 Accenture study, for example, found that 83% of executives surveyed admitted they were unable to distinguish between the value levers of M&A deals. In Booz Allen Hamilton's 1999 review of thirty-four frequent acquirers, which focused chiefly on integration, unsuccessful acquirers admitted that they fished in uncharted waters. They ranked "learning about new (and potentially related) business areas" as a top reason for making an acquisition. (Surely companies should know whether a business area is related to their core before they decide to buy into it!) Successful acquirers, by contrast, were more likely to cite "leading or responding to industry restructuring" as a reason for making an acquisition, suggesting that these companies had at least thought through the strategic implications of their moves.

Not that tipping one's hat to strategy is a cure-all. In our work with companies that are thinking about doing a deal, we often hear that the acquisition is intended for "strategic" reasons. That's simply not good enough. A credible investment thesis should describe a concrete benefit, rather than a vaguely stated strategic value.

A credible investment thesis should describe a concrete benefit, rather than a vaguely stated strategic value. This point needs underscoring. Justifying a deal as being "strategic" ex post facto is, in most cases, an invitation to inferior returns. Given how frequently we have heard weak "strategic" justifications after a deal has closed, it's worth passing along a warning from Craig Tall, vice chair of corporate development and strategic planning at Washington Mutual. In recent years, Tall's bank has made acquisitions a key part of a stunningly successful growth record. "When I see an expensive deal," Tall told us, "and they say it was a 'strategic' deal, it's a code for me that somebody paid too much."

And although sometimes the best offense is a good defense, this axiom does not really stand in for a valid investment thesis. On more than a few occasions, we have been witness to deals that were initiated because an investment banker uttered the Eight Magic Words: If you don't buy it, your competitors will.

Well, so be it. If a potential acquisition is not compelling to you on its own merits, let it go. Let your competitors put their good money down, and prove that their investment theses are strong.

Let's look at a case in point: [Clear Channel Communications' leaders Lowry, Mark and Randall] Mayses' decision to move from radios into outdoor advertising (billboards, to most of us). Based on our conversations with Randall Mays, we summarize their investment thesis for buying into the billboard business as follows:

Clear Channel's expansion into outdoor advertising leverages the company's core competencies in two ways: First, the local market sales force that is already in place to sell radio ads can now sell outdoor ads to many of the same buyers, and Clear Channel is uniquely positioned to sell both local and national advertisements. Second, similar to the radio industry twenty years ago, the outdoor advertising industry is fragmented and undercapitalized. Clear Channel has the capital needed to "roll up" a significant fraction of this industry, as well as the cash flow and management systems needed to reduce operating expenses across a consolidated business.

Note that in Clear Channel's investment thesis (at least as we've stated it), the benefits would be derived from three sources:

• Leveraging an existing sales force more extensively
• Using the balance sheet to roll up and fund an undercapitalized business
• Applying operating skills learned in the radio trade

Note also the emphasis on tangible and quantifiable results, which can be easily communicated and tested. All stakeholders, including investors, employees, debtors and vendors, should understand why a deal will make their company stronger. Does the investment thesis make sense only to those who know the company best? If so, that's probably a bad sign. Is senior management arguing that a deal's inherent genius is too complex to be understood by all stakeholders, or simply asserting that the deal is "strategic"? These, too, are probably bad signs.

Most of the best acquirers we've studied try to get the thesis down on paper as soon as possible. Getting it down in black and white—wrapping specific words around the ideas—allows them to circulate the thesis internally and to generate reactions early and often.

The perils of the "transformational" deal. Some readers may be wondering whether there isn't a less tangible, but equally credible, rationale for an investment thesis: the transformational deal. Such transactions, which became popular in the exuberant '90s, aim to turn companies (and sometimes even whole industries) on their head and "transform" them. In effect, they change a company's basis of competition through a dramatic redeployment of assets.

The roster of companies that have favored transformational deals includes Vivendi Universal, AOL Time Warner (which changed its name back to Time Warner in October 2003), Enron, Williams, and others. Perhaps that list alone is enough to turn our readers off the concept of the transformational deal. (We admit it: We keep wanting to put that word transformational in quotes.) But let's dig a little deeper.

Sometimes what looks like a successful transformational deal is really a case of mistaken identity. In search of effective transformations, people sometimes cite the examples of DuPont—which after World War I used M&A to transform itself from a maker of explosives into a broad-based leader in the chemicals industry—and General Motors, which, through the consolidation of several car companies, transformed the auto industry. But when you actually dissect the moves of such industry winners, you find that they worked their way down the same learning curve as the best-practice companies in our global study. GM never attempted the transformational deal; instead, it rolled up smaller car companies until it had the scale to take on a Ford—and win. DuPont was similarly patient; it broadened its product scope into a range of chemistry-based industries, acquisition by acquisition.

In a more recent example, Rexam PLC has transformed itself from a broad-based conglomerate into a global leader in packaging by actively managing its portfolio and growing its core business. Beginning in the late '90s, Rexam shed diverse businesses in cyclical industries and grew scale in cans. First it acquired Europe's largest beverage—can manufacturer, Sweden's PLM, in 1999. Then it bought U.S.-based packager American National Can in 2000, making itself the largest beverage-can maker in the world. In other words, Rexam acquired with a clear investment thesis in mind: to grow scale in can making or broaden geographic scope. The collective impact of these many small steps was transformation. 14

But what of the literal transformational deal? You saw the preceding list of companies. Our advice is unequivocal: Stay out of this high-stakes game. Recent efforts to transform companies via the megadeal have failed or faltered. The glamour is blinding, which only makes the route more treacherous and the destination less clear. If you go this route, you are very likely to destroy value for your shareholders.

By definition, the transformational deal can't have a clear investment thesis, and evidence from the movement of stock prices immediately following deal announcements suggests that the market prefers deals that have a clear investment thesis. In "Deals That Create Value," for example, McKinsey scrutinized stock price movements before and after 231 corporate transactions over a five-year period. The study concluded that the market prefers "expansionist" deals, in which a company "seeks to boost its market share by consolidating, by moving into new geographic regions, or by adding new distribution channels for existing products and services."

On average, McKinsey reported, deals of the "expansionist" variety earned a stock market premium in the days following their announcement. By contrast, "transformative" deals—whereby companies threw themselves bodily into a new line of business—destroyed an average of 5.3% of market value immediately after the deal's announcement. Translating these findings into our own terminology:

• Expansionist deals are more likely to have a clear investment thesis, while "transformative" deals often have no credible rationale.
• The market is likely to reward the former and punish the latter.
• The dilution/accretion debate. One more side discussion that comes to bear on the investment thesis: Deal making is often driven by what we'll call the dilution/accretion debate. We will argue that this debate must be taken into account as you develop your investment thesis, but your thesis making should not be driven by this debate.

Sometimes what looks like a successful transformational deal is really a case of mistaken identity. Simply put, a deal is dilutive if it causes the acquiring company to have lower earnings per share (EPS) than it had before the transaction. As they teach in Finance 101, this happens when the asset return on the purchased business is less than the cost of the debt or equity (e.g., through the issuance of new shares) needed to pay for the deal. Dilution can also occur when an asset is sold, because the earnings power of the business being sold is greater than the return on the alternative use of the proceeds (e.g., paying down debt, redeeming shares or buying something else). An accretive deal, of course, has the opposite outcomes.

But that's only the first of two shoes that may drop. The second shoe is, How will Wall Street respond? Will investors punish the company (or reward it) for its dilutive ways?

Aware of this two-shoes-dropping phenomenon, many CEOs and CFOs use the litmus test of earnings accretion/dilution as the first hurdle that should be put in front of every proposed deal. One of these skilled acquirers is Citigroup's [former] CFO Todd Thomson, who told us:

It's an incredibly powerful discipline to put in place a rule of thumb that deals have to be accretive within some [specific] period of time. At Citigroup, my rule of thumb is it has to be accretive within the first twelve months, in terms of EPS, and it has to reach our capital rate of return, which is over 20% return within three to four years. And it has to make sense both financially and strategically, which means it has to have at least as fast a growth rate as we expect from our businesses in general, which is 10 to 15% a year.

Now, not all of our deals meet that hurdle. But if I set that up to begin with, then if [a deal is] not going to meet that hurdle, people know they better make a heck of a compelling argument about why it doesn't have to be accretive in year one, or why it may take year four or five or six to be able to hit that return level.

Unfortunately, dilution is a problem that has to be wrestled with on a regular basis. As Mike Bertasso, the head of H. J. Heinz's Asia-Pacific businesses, told us, "If a business is accretive, it is probably low-growth and cheap for a reason. If it is dilutive, it's probably high-growth and attractive, and we can't afford it." Even if you can't afford them, steering clear of dilutive deals seems sensible enough, on the face of it. Why would a company's leaders ever knowingly take steps that would decrease their EPS?

The answer, of course, is to invest for the future. As part of the research leading up to this book, Bain looked at a hundred deals that involved EPS accretion and dilution. All the deals were large enough and public enough to have had an effect on the buyer's stock price. The result was surprising: First-year accretion and dilution did not matter to shareholders. In other words, there was no statistical correlation between future stock performance and whether the company did an accretive or dilutive deal. If anything, the dilutive deals slightly outperformed. Why? Because dilutive deals are almost always involved in buying higher-growth assets, and therefore by their nature pass Thomson's test of a "heck of a compelling argument."

As a rule, investors like to see their companies investing in growth. We believe that investors in the stock market do, in fact, look past reported EPS numbers in an effort to understand how the investment thesis will improve the business they already own. If the investment thesis holds up to this kind of scrutiny, then some short-term dilution is probably acceptable.

Reprinted with permission of Harvard Business School Press. Mastering the Merger: Four Critical Decisions That Make or Break the Deal , by David Harding and Sam Rovit. Copyright 2004 Bain & Company; All Rights Reserved.

David Harding (HBS MBA '84) is a director in Bain & Company's Boston office and is an expert in corporate strategy and organizational effectiveness.

Sam Rovit (HBS MBA '89) is a director in the Chicago office and leader of Bain & Company's Global Mergers and Acquisitions Practice.                                              

10. Joe Trustey, telephone interview by David Harding, Bain & Company. Boston: 13 May 2003. Subsequent comments by Trustey are also from this interview.

11. Accenture, "Accenture Survey Shows Executives Are Cautiously Optimistic Regarding Future Mergers and Acquisitions," Accenture Press Release, 30 May 2002.

12. John R. Harbison, Albert J. Viscio, and Amy T. Asin, "Making Acquisitions Work: Capturing Value After the Deal," Booz Allen & Hamilton Series of View-points on Alliances, 1999.

13. Craig Tall, telephone interview by Catherine Lemire, Bain & Company. Toronto: 1 October 2002.

14. Rolf Börjesson, interview by Tom Shannon, Bain & Company. London: 2001.

15. Hans Bieshaar, Jeremy Knight, and Alexander van Wassenaer, "Deals That Create Value," McKinsey Quarterly 1 (2001).

16. Todd Thomson, speaking on "Strategic M&A in an Opportunistic Environment." (Presentation at Bain & Company's Getting Back to Offense conference, New York City, 20 June 2002.)

17. Mike Bertasso, correspondence with David Harding, 15 December 2003.

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How To Make An Investment Thesis: Ultimate Guide To Best Investment Decision

An Introduction to Investment Thesis

An investment thesis forms the basis of an investor's strategy and serves as a framework to direct investment choices as well as articulate the reasoning behind targeting assets or markets. A robust investment thesis clearly outlines the factors that will drive returns while minimizing risks. Developing a thought-out investment thesis is crucial for achieving success in investments.

This guide will take you through the components of creating a compelling investment thesis from beginning to end. We will discuss how to identify promising investment opportunities, analyze target companies, perform valuation modeling, build a portfolio, present the fund's thesis to potential investors, implement the thesis in investment activities, and adapt it as market conditions evolve. By adhering to a disciplined investment thesis, investors can consistently make informed decisions and make choices to outperform the market.

Identifying Investment Opportunities

The initial step in developing an investment thesis involves pinpointing areas of focus that will shape your investment decisions. This entails determining sectors, asset classes, geographical regions, or other frameworks on which you wish to concentrate your research and analysis.

When determining the area you want to focus on, there are four key questions and factors to consider;

• Your expertise and knowledge - It is best to concentrate on areas where you have experience or can gain expertise without stretching yourself
• Macroeconomic trends - Look out for trends that can have an impact. These trends could include shifts, advancements, policy changes, and more. Identify sectors, regions, or asset classes that are likely to benefit from these long-term shifts
• Market inefficiencies - Keep an eye out for market inefficiencies. Opportunities often arise in markets that are fragmented, complex, or experiencing changes
• Investment horizons - Consider the investment horizon required for investment theses. Some ideas may require a time frame to materialize their potential returns while others may offer shorter-term gains

Once you have determined your area of focus, it is crucial to conduct in-depth research on the macro trends shaping that market. Look for trends that will drive growth over the years rather than focusing solely on quarterly fluctuations mentioned in market reports. The objective is to identify factors that can positively impact revenues, margins, and valuations of well-positioned companies.

With an understanding of the landscape established through research, you can then search for companies positioned to take advantage of the identified trends. Look for firms, with products/services/customers/geographical reach or innovative strategies that give them an edge when it comes to capitalizing on these opportunities.

Analyzing the Company

For an investment thesis, it is crucial to assess the company you are considering for investment. This assessment should include an evaluation of the company's drivers of growth, its management team and strategy as well as potential risks and challenges.

Growth Drivers

When analyzing the market value of a company, you'll want to closely examine the products, customers, and competitive positioning that are fueling its growth.

• Products: Look at the company's current product portfolio and pipeline. Do they have innovative products that are gaining market share? How large is their total addressable market and how much of it have they penetrated so far?
• Customers: Evaluate who their key customers are and how loyal they are. Look at metrics like net dollar retention rate to understand how loyal their customers are
• Competition: Analyze the competitive landscape and the company's positioning. Do they have a durable competitive advantage? How do they compare to rivals on factors like pricing, product features, and customer experience?
• Scalability: Do margins get larger or smaller as a customer increases its size? In some cases, unprofitable companies become highly profitable with growth - in other cases, costs increase in line with revenues. 

Management and Strategy

The strategy and execution capabilities of management are critical to a company's success.

• Management Team: Research the background and track record of key executives. Do they have relevant industry experience and a history of generating returns?
• Strategy: Assess management's strategic priorities and plans to drive growth. Do they have a coherent plan to expand their market opportunity?
• Culture & Incentives: Assess how they attract and retain talent. Are employees actively involved and motivated to excel?

Assessing the management will help ascertain whether the company has the leadership to seize the upcoming opportunity.

Risks and Challenges

When conducting an analysis it's important to consider factors;

• Technology Shifts: Take into account innovations that could affect the company's market.
• Regulation: Consider possible changes in regulations that may impact the business model and financial aspects.
• Macro Trends: Look at shifts in the wider economic environment that could influence customer demand.

Thoroughly examining the company across these dimensions provides the information and perspective to build confidence in your investment thesis. It helps you understand the business model, growth trajectory, management capabilities, risks involved, and valuation potential.

Conducting Valuation

Whilst a company's valuation is largely based purely on how much an investor or acquirer is willing to pay, there are a number of methodologies that help to guide valuations:

Choosing the Appropriate Valuation Method

DCF valuation is typically preferred when assessing situations where reliable projections can be made. However, for early-stage or volatile companies, it may be more appropriate to consider comparable multiples based on similar industry peers.

Making Projections and Assumptions

When making projections and assumptions it is essential to conduct research to establish credible forecasts.

Projections should encompass metrics such as revenue growth, margins, capital expenditure requirements, and working capital needs. Additionally, explicit assumptions should be made regarding elements like market size, market share, pricing strategies, and costs among others. Conducting sensitivity analysis can help stress test these assumptions.

Ensuring Upside to Current Valuation

Once you have determined the value of a company you can compare this value against its market capitalization. Look for the ultimate goal of valuation is to support your thesis that the company is undervalued. If the current market price exceeds your estimate of value it may be prudent to reassess your assumptions and analysis. The greater the upside potential identified within your analysis the stronger your conviction becomes in considering an investment opportunity.

Constructing Your Portfolio

When constructing your portfolio based on your investment thesis, you should diversify your holdings and size your positions appropriately based on conviction and risk tolerance.

Diversification

Your investment thesis should guide how you diversify your portfolio. For example, if your thesis focuses on emerging market consumer stocks, you would want exposure across multiple countries and consumer product categories. Diversifying appropriately helps manage overall portfolio risk. You want to avoid overexposure to any single company, sector, or country.

Position Sizing

When determining position sizes within your portfolio, larger positions should be allocated to your highest conviction ideas based on your investment thesis. However, position size should also be constrained based on your risk tolerance. Larger positions will drive portfolio performance but also increase volatility. 

Rebalancing

As market conditions change, rebalancing your portfolio involves  realigning holdings in line with your investment thesis. If certain positions have increased significantly in size, trimming them down and reallocating to underweight areas can improve diversification and risk-adjusted returns. Revisiting your thesis and rebalancing at regular intervals instills discipline in sticking to your core investment tenets.

Presenting to Investors

When presenting your investment thesis to investors it's crucial to communicate and address important information right from the start. Your objective is to explain your insights and build confidence in your ability to generate returns.

To begin - guide investors through your thesis, research process, and valuation methodology. Elaborate on the trends you've identified and analyze the company's growth drivers and competitive position. Share how you arrived at your valuation.

Next, emphasize your "edge”. The expertise, relationships, or analytical skills that give you an advantage in assessing this opportunity. Provide examples of investments you've made in the past by leveraging an edge to establish credibility

Lastly, demonstrate your risk management abilities by addressing challenges and risks. Outline the assumptions underlying your thesis and discuss scenarios where they may not hold true. Describe how you plan to monitor and mitigate risks related to regulations, supply chains, customer demand, or management execution. 

Implementing the Thesis

Once you have developed an investment thesis the next step is executing trades to construct a portfolio that aligns with your thesis. It is crucial to approach this process with strategic planning in order to achieve results.

When making investments it is important to allocate positions based on your level of confidence in each holding while also ensuring diversification. Generally speculative or higher risk assets should be given allocations that don’t jeopardize the portfolio as a whole.

Ongoing portfolio management necessitates actively monitoring performance against the expectations outlined in your investment thesis. By keeping track of metrics, business drivers, and macroeconomic factors you can gauge whether your thesis remains valid.

As new data emerges over time adjustments and rebalancing of your portfolio will likely be required. This involves reducing exposure to holdings where the original thesis has weakened or deteriorated while increasing exposure to emerging opportunities. 

Continuously refining your portfolio ensures that it remains closely aligned with your investment thesis as market conditions evolve. Successful investors remain adaptable. Adjust their allocations while keeping their long-term perspectives intact.

Updating the Investment Thesis

As time progresses it is crucial to revisit and update your investment thesis accordingly.

Markets are constantly changing and it is crucial to stay updated with information that emerges. Your initial assumptions may not always hold true which can lead to poor investment decisions if you stick to an investment thesis.

To ensure the relevance of your investment thesis periodically reassess all your assumptions and projections. Take a look at your growth estimates, address any emerging threats, and analyze how market sentiment has shifted. If there have been changes in the investment narrative it's essential to update your thesis

Incorporate insights from sources such as earnings reports, industry conferences, macroeconomic data, and more. I. Objectively evaluate if adjustments need to be made based on the information at hand.

The key here is flexibility; being able to adapt to information sets good investors apart from the average ones. 

Common Mistakes to Avoid When Developing an Investment Thesis

To ensure the success of your investment thesis it's important to steer clear of pitfalls. Here are a few common ones;

Lack of Diversification

Having an overconcentration in a sector, geography, or asset type can leave a portfolio vulnerable. For example, an investment thesis focused solely on fast-growing US tech companies could miss opportunities in emerging markets. 

Biased Assumptions

It's easy to fall into the trap of making projections that confirm your existing bias about a company's growth potential. Avoid exaggerated assumptions that are not grounded in facts, and remember that “hope” has historically been a bad investment strategy 

Ignoring New Information

Markets and companies are dynamic, so no investment thesis holds true forever. Do not blindly stick to your original assumptions if new data suggests your thesis is no longer valid. Be ready to change course if your investment case deteriorates. Failing to adapt can turn gains into losses.

To summarize this guide - here are the most important factors in an investment thesis ;

• Identifying economic trends and sector-specific opportunities to focus on when making investments.
• Conducting a thorough analysis of potential companies, for your portfolio including their products, customers, competitors, and management.
• Using valuation models such as discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to determine a target value based on your projections.
• Creating a diverse portfolio by considering your confidence level and risk tolerance for each position.
• Clearly presenting your investment strategy and unique advantage to inspire confidence in investors.
• Consistently implementing your investment strategy when making buy or sell decisions.
• Monitoring your portfolio and assumptions, updating the thesis as needed based on new data.

Creating a thoughtful investment thesis takes rigorous research and ongoing discipline. However, it also establishes a framework to capitalize on the upside potential of emerging trends. Investors who take the time to develop a compelling thesis are more apt to outperform the market. With the right blend of macro perspective and individual security analysis, your investment thesis can unlock substantial value creation.

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How to Create an Investment Thesis

What it is, why you want one, and how to create it.

One of the essential elements in a venture capital firm is the investment thesis. The thesis can come in many varieties, from broad and loosely defined focuses to a specific vertical and company stage. On the other hand, some investors choose to allocate capital without a core thesis driving their decisions and see success in this strategy. This post will define an investment thesis, why investors decide to develop one, and some tips on creating one.

What is an investment thesis?

Simply put, the investment thesis is an assumption made about a market, vertical, or trend that will drive the strategy for a particular firm or fund. Just as a startup will assume a problem or market need and build a product around solving that problem, an investor will consider various markets and trends and develop an investment strategy focused on that assumption.

Why develop an investment thesis?

The thesis is the driving force behind what a firm chooses to focus on to generate returns. It will be a fundamental part of how VCs decide what to look for in specific markets, source deals, and where they ultimately decide to invest their capital. The thesis helps keep a firm focused, allowing investors to work within particular parameters when they go about their business.

There are a couple of advantages to having a thesis-driven approach as a venture capital firm. It will drive relationships that the firm pursues. This relationship driver applies to how firms source deals from an investment standpoint and choose their limited partners. These relationships with experts in a particular vertical will help portfolio companies with mentorship, independent board seats, and talent sourcing.

A thesis compels VCs to be experts within their particular field. If a firm bases its thesis around FinTech, it will most likely have some expertise in that field. This knowledge will help them understand the marketplace, specific problems a startup is trying to solve and judge founder talent. The firm will also be a thought leader in the space by releasing analysis and reporting trends in the industry. Lastly, the firm's partners will be a better value-add to the companies within their portfolio, paving a quicker path for a startup's growth and success.

Example of a thesis

A16Z , a prominent Silicon Valley firm, has several different areas they invest in, from FinTech to Growth to Consumer focused startups. Below is their investment thesis for their FinTech portfolio:

"Fintech companies are innovating across broad categories — in banking, lending, insurance, real estate, and investing — both on the customer-facing side and in core infrastructure. We believe the combination of mobile, digital money, machine learning, and new data sources offers startups a unique opportunity to leapfrog outdated infrastructure and compete with incumbent financial institutions to reimagine the way we manage our finances." Source

We understand that the firm focuses on startups that use mobile and machine learning to innovate on financial management through this statement. This thesis has helped drive the firm's investments in Stripe (now valued at $36B) and Carta (currently valued at $3.3B).

For an awesome hub of investment thesis examples, check out this link !

How to build an investment thesis

When developing a thesis, there are vital things to keep in mind:

Markets : Start with market sizing to make sure that a particular industry is worth pursuing. We will discuss market sizing strategies in a future post.

Trends: Understand macro trends impacting the markets and industries that you determine are big enough to pursue.

Companies : Break down each company within a market that has upside potential. Look at recent companies that have seen success within your specific industry focus.

Exits : Make sure there is an exciting exit environment for companies in that particular segment. You want your investments to see a return through going public or M&A activity.

Tips on the above:

Things to think about defining in a thesis would be company stage, geography, vertical, or market.

People tend to want a fully-formed thesis right off the bat, but it's an iterative process. The scrum process might be three months, but the full process can take a year before talking about a thesis publicly.

Have a hunch on something that isn't fully formed and then test it out:

Go out and talk to entrepreneurs.

Talk to buyers of the technology.

Form relationships with ecosystem partners.

Incrementally improve your thesis based on feedback and results.

For some more tips and strategies on creating a thesis, check out this informative Medium post .

Final thoughts

The thesis can help you stay focused and is your north star. For startups, it will help them target your firm. For LPs, it will help them judge your conviction and investment strategy. When developing a thesis, think about taking on big problems and big ideas. There are so many significant issues to be solved globally, and we have a golden opportunity to help solve them. Think big, and don't limit yourself only to ideas on making returns for investors, but how to impact the world.

This story is from Sutton Capital contributor Zeb Hastings. For more information on Zeb’s work, please visit his  website .

Ready for more?

Does your VC have an investment thesis or a hypothesis?

David Teten

More posts from david teten.

• How to find a job as a scout for a VC firm
• The investment manager of the future

Venture capitalists love to talk investment theses: on Twitter, Medium, Clubhouse, at conferences. And yet, when you take a closer look, theses are often meaningless and/or misleading.

OpenVC is a new, open-source initiative to collect and analyze all publicly available VC theses to help founders more efficiently find the right investors — and vice-versa. For the first time, we are sharing here our initial conclusions. We hope you’ll upload your own thesis to benchmark yourself. We’ve identified six common patterns of how VCs articulate their theses and some best practices in doing so.

Our analysis is based on two complementary datasets:

• 125 theses so far submitted by investors into the OpenVC database.
• 36 theses pulled directly from U.S. VC websites by David Teten and Sam Sabin , co-founder of Hireblue .

Our four primary conclusions:

• Public theses are often inconsistent with how firms actually deploy capital.
• VC theses are often so vague that they’re meaningless.
• We found seven categories of VC theses, plus an eighth: the non-thesis.
• Investment theses are just hypotheses; the portfolio shows how accurate the hypothesis was.

For the sake of simplicity, we will consider “investment thesis” and “investment criteria” as equivalent terms moving forward, although we argue that the thesis leads to the investment criteria. We summarize how they interrelate in the table below.

1. Public theses are often inconsistent with how firms actually deploy capital

A typical VC thesis: “We invest in tech startups in Europe at an early stage.” However, our experience shows that in many cases “Europe” means a handful of countries, for instance, France, U.K. and Germany; and “tech” means B2B SaaS/fintech or consumer apps.

Thirty-four VC firms in OpenVC call themselves “early stage.” Yet 30% of those don’t actually invest in pre-revenue startups. The phrase is quite ambiguous; we suggest quantifying check size so that your investment preference is clearer.

Almost every VC says that they invest in the “best” founders. However, according to PitchBook Data, since the beginning of 2016, companies with women founders have received only 4.4% of venture capital deals. Those companies have garnered only about 2% of all capital invested. This is despite the fact that the data show you’re better off investing in women .

This lack of transparency results in confused founders who chase the wrong investors. In turn, investors are overwhelmed with poorly qualified opportunities.

2. VC theses are often so vague that they’re meaningless

Christoph Janz from Point Nine Capital wrote on Twitter:

The modal VC thesis is: “We invest in great teams addressing large markets with disruptive solutions.” Who invests in lousy teams addressing tiny markets with outdated solutions? Theses also tend to use the same words across many firms, e.g., “daring” and “bold.”

In particular, in our second dataset, we found a disproportionate number of theses focused on “technical” companies (vaguely defined) and focused on companies attacking “problems of the future rather than the present,” in various permutations of that language.

Why are the investment criteria so imprecise on the VC websites? We have three theories, in descending order of importance:

• Option value. Investors don’t want to be too restrictive and miss out on a deal. However, we’d argue that for most smaller managers who are not brand names, it’s better to be highly identified in your niche than being a generalist. Most limited partners we speak with agree.
• A desire to look “sexy” and politically correct as opposed to being honest. This is probably a major reason. For example, saying publicly, “We invest mostly in white/Asian men who went to Stanford like us” accurately describes numerous VCs, but doesn’t sound very politically correct.
• VCs are afraid to give out their secret sauce. We think this doesn’t make much sense; you can share your criteria without telling the whole logic behind them. Many top-tier VCs share detailed public theses.

3. We found seven categories of VC theses, plus an eighth: the non-thesis

What makes an excellent — or at least clear — investment thesis?

4 essential truths about venture investing

Typically, investors either have a very loose nonrestrictive strategy to investing or maintain a strict focus on a few particular areas. As two extremes:

• Founder Collective describes itself as “deliberately anti-thematic. Visionary founders have shown us that the weird use cases of today can become the hot themes of tomorrow.”
• Check Size: $50,000 to $200,000. Vast majority $100,000 to $150,000.
• Total Round Size: $50,000-$500,000. (Occasional exceptions to $1 million.)
• Valuation: $1 million-$3 million. (Rare exceptions to $6 million with extreme traction.)
• Traction/progress: Almost always $5,000 to $30,000/month in gross profit. No ideas or prototypes.
• Sector: Anything in tech. But you must be doing real engineering of some kind.
• Headcount: Usually at least two full-time founders. Often a few full- or part-time workers.

We take from this that there is little consensus on whether VC investing should be thesis-driven or not. And even the “thesis-driven” VC firms often make investments outside of their stated thesis.

Of the firms that articulate a thesis, most fall into one of, or a combination of, the following seven buckets:

(1) Industry funds . Warren Buffett famously said that “diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.” In venture capital, the industry- or sector-focused funds specifically disavow diversification:

• Andreessen Horowitz, which is a generalist as a whole, has launched dedicated funds across crypto , bio  and fintech .
• AgFunder , focused on the food and agricultural sectors, aims to solve challenges brought by climate change, failing soils and population growth .
• Foundry Group, investing primarily in “ software and internet ,” follows six major themes, e.g., human-computer interaction (HCI) or distribution.
• USV invests in companies that increase “ access to knowledge, capital and well-being by leveraging networks, platforms and protocols .”

Data from OpenVC showed that VCs typically focus on two technology classes. Software is by far the most sought-after class, with 94% of VCs investing in it. Deep tech follows as a distant second with 57%. Hardware and therapeutics lag well behind.

Out of 125 funds in the database, 33 state they invest in one type of technology (e.g., “software”); 43 invest in two types of technology (e.g., “software” and “deep tech”), and so on.

(2) Business-model-defined funds . These firms also sometimes target startups that serve a specific kind of customer (e.g., B2B versus B2C) within the business model preference. For example, Point Nine Capital focuses on B2B SaaS and marketplaces at the seed stage across many industries.

(3) Geography-defined funds . Apart from the usual country-specialist investors and foreign offices of U.S.-based VCs, we see three dynamics at play:

• VCs investing in specific geographies. Avataar Ventures invests exclusively in companies that fit these criteria: $15 million with annual recurring revenues; tech-led B2B and SaaS Companies; core operations in India/Southeast Asia; and open to active partnering. In 2019, according to the CVCA , Real Ventures invested in 42 rounds, with the total value of those rounds equal to that of the next three most active private VC firms combined. Real sees 80% of all seed deals in Canada.
• VCs investing abroad or in binational companies, typically with technology based in a second- or third-tier market, and sales/marketing in a first-tier market. Data from OpenVC suggests that 75% of funds invest in more than one country. These results are consistent for both U.S.- and Europe-based VC firms. Explore why venture capitalists are investing in international startups and why international startups love New York, and vice versa .

(4) Entrepreneur-defined funds . This is most commonly seen in funds that focus on underrepresented founders, but we’ve seen other focused communities as well.

• Female Founders Fund , AmplifyHer Ventures , Halogen Ventures and many others invest exclusively in women-founded businesses.
• a16z’s Cultural Leadership Fund aims to “enable more young African Americans to enter the technology industry.”
• J-Angels “is a community and a VC fund of top American investors (Jewish American and Israeli-born) in Silicon Valley and San Francisco.”
• Diaspora Ventures is a “pre-seed fund … looking to back the next generation of French entrepreneurs building tech companies in the U.S.”

A special subset of this is investors that focus on mission-driven founders and typically have explicit ESG criteria. For example, City Light VC only invests in “companies where there is a direct relationship between financial outcomes and measurable social impact.”

(5) Structure-defined funds . Versatile Venture Capital , Indie.VC  and other revenue-based finance and flexible VC investors state they focus on companies with a short-term focus on profitability. These firms typically invest using a nontraditional “flexible VC” structure, which allows founders to pay back their financial obligation to the fund through a combination of revenue-sharing and/or equity payback.

(6)   Situation-defined funds . Some firms optimize around certain aspects of the investment situation. Alpha Partners and Proof provide capital when their partner VCs don’t have pro rata and share the economics on the investments. Correlation Ventures invests in under two weeks when there is “at least one other venture capital firm also making their first investment into the company.”

(7) Stage-defined funds. These funds tend to focus their investments in startups at a specific stage or seeking a certain check size. First Round Capital invests in rounds up to Series A and is often the “first money in,” backing entrepreneurs at the first stages of the company they’re creating.

4. Investment theses are just hypotheses; the portfolio shows how accurate the hypothesis was

We cannot formally prove a priori whether one thesis is better than another. They exist as heuristics, but at the end of the day, deal flow trumps everything. If a fantastic opportunity shows up, most VCs would invest, regardless of their thesis.

Investment theses are marketing assets toward LPs and startups. As such, there are three stakeholders when building a thesis: the investing partners, the LPs and the founders.

We can see in the example above how the thesis is not “pure” from the GP point of view. It incorporates influences from the LP and, more and more, from the founders.

Faced with the daily deal flow, the investment thesis feels like nothing but “a set of strict rules, loosely applied.” Does it mean the investment thesis is just an irrelevant practice that should be ignored or abused? We think not.

In the battle for deal flow, the thesis is at the core of a fund’s value proposition. It’s part of a VC brand and identity. It’s what makes it unique and distinctive.

We’d argue that for most smaller firms, it’s better to be highly identified in your niche than being a generalist. A fund should aim to be identified as “the” specialist in one or a combination of the seven buckets listed above. “Even at a later stage, it’s better to be talked about [as] something than nothing at all,” startup mentor Alexander Jarvis said. “You can always mention you do other things later, as they reach out knowing you are awesome at something.”

Most important, show your data: the number of checks written at each stage; the number of checks in each size level ($500,000-$1 million, $1 million-$5 million and so on); follow-on ratio; etc. Almost every investor is glad to share the winners in their portfolio, but only a few will share detailed analytics. Some worthwhile examples are First Round Capital’s 10 Year Project and FJ Labs’ 2020 Year in Review .

“VCs bury their dead quietly; they write Medium posts when things went well,” Jarvis observed. We hope more firms over time will feel comfortable sharing the real data as to how their data lines up relative to their investment thesis … and their investment hypotheses.

David Teten has advised Real Ventures and Right Side Capital. Thanks to Paulina Symala and Prabhat Gusain for research and analytical help, and to Alexander Jarvis for detailed and thoughtful comments.

11 words and phrases to cut from your VC pitch deck

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Venture Fluent Updates

What's a vc investment thesis anyway 🤔, join us online this wednesday, november 9 at 1pm est to learn more..

What does it mean when a venture investor says she’s “thesis-driven?”

And how does that differ, if at all, from an investor who says they deploy capital “across a number of investment themes?”

Fred Wilson wrote the best post I’ve seen that differentiates between thematic and thesis-driven investing in venture capital . I assign it as part of my VC seminar at Yale, and it’s part of the syllabus for Venture Fluent, my live, online VC course .

The post holds up well over a decade after Fred published it, and it’s worth reading along with the comments, which are like taking a walk down memory lane if you were a regular AVC reader back in the day.

If you want to take a deeper dive on this topic, join me and other students of VC online this Wednesday, November 9 from 1PM - 2PM EST for the Beta Cohort Launch Party . 🎉

I’m giving a mini lesson on thesis-driven investing, and you’ll meet two of my VC colleagues, Lorine Pendleton and Jordan Weitz , who will share their personal perspectives on how to start investing at any stage of your career.

Register for the Launch Party!!

And if you’re interested in taking an even deeper dive on thesis-driven investing and much more, you’re in luck!

There’s still space in the Beta cohort, which will start meeting on November 22. Head on over to the course landing page to learn more and to apply.

Apply now!!

I’ll see you at the Launch Party!

Ready for more?

Avalon Ventures

Avalon blog, predicting the future through thesis-driven investing.

Note: The full article on this topic first appeared on VentureBeat. You can read it here .  

At Avalon Ventures, we’re committed to our three-pronged investment strategy , which has led to repeated success year after year. While some may define this success as prescience , our approach is actually much more sophisticated and interesting than looking into a crystal ball. What it all boils down to is pattern recognition.

We are able to observe emerging trends in the technology and life sciences markets in which we invest by seeing hundreds of businesses every quarter. We are able to narrow down these trends into patterns that turn into investing theses. These theses guide our investment decision processes, allowing us to determine which companies will be successful and which will not.  

Based on experience, these are the three reasons thesis-driven investing helps predict the future of a successful investment:

• We know which companies will be successful even before they do

Once we develop a thesis about a particular market, we look for companies whose unique problem-solving strategies align with our underlying assumptions about the direction of a given market. Many times we end up finding those companies before they even come to us.

Take Skycatch as a good example here. My friends and fellow investors knew that the UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) space was on my radar. After they told me about Skycatch, I called founder Christian Sanz and we quickly realized that we were a mutual fit. His positioning and beliefs on drones as a data business, combined with the drone’s autonomy, aligns with our thesis about the space and growth of real-time imagine beyond human capabilities.  

• We know what makes for a successful partnership

People matter. That is one of the most steadfast investment rules across all types of investments, public or private. When you invest long-term in a company, you’ll be sharing part of your life with them, which is why it’s very important to us to find a founder who shares the same underlying assumptions about a market. Many times it can be like finding an old friend. Sharing these assumptions aligns confidence in our partnership and becomes a powerful ally when times get tough (because they will). This also provides a place for common ground and understanding. Because of our different roles, investors and founders can find themselves at odds if they don’t share the same beliefs about the company’s purpose and future.

Thesis-driven investing allows for a successful partnership that endures throughout the company’s entire evolution.

• We can successfully move very fast

The fact of the matter is that your idea is not nearly as important as your ability to execute. When you have the right talent, tools and resources in place, you can move with incredible speed using your roadmap to navigate through difficulties ahead.

Having a common ground among investors and founders creates room for a fast pace of execution.

Why thesis-driven investing enables fast execution:

• You can confidently let the founder own decision making
• You can advise at strategic points and not at every opportunity
• When problems arise, we can tackle it from a common place

What’s Ahead

By following this successful strategy year over year, we have enjoyed backing many incredible founders and ideas with successful results. We’re committed to our approach of thesis-driven investing and are always to looking for key patterns and identifying exciting waves of innovation that are large and timely.

This entry was posted in Early Stage Investing and tagged in Investing , Partnership , Patterns , Thesis , Thesis-Driven Investing .

Writing a Credible Investment Thesis

by David Harding and Sam Rovit

Every deal your company proposes to do—big or small, strategic or tactical—should start with a clear statement how that particular deal would create value for your company. We call this the investment thesis . The investment thesis is no more or less than a definitive statement, based on a clear understanding of how money is made in your business, that outlines how adding this particular business to your portfolio will make your company more valuable. Many of the best acquirers write out their investment theses in black and white. Joe Trustey, managing partner of private equity and venture capital firm Summit Partners, describes the tool in one short sentence: "It tells me why I would want to own this business." 10

Perhaps you're rolling your eyes and saying to yourself, "Well, of course our company uses an investment thesis!" But unless you're in the private equity business—which in our experience is more disciplined in crafting investment theses than are corporate buyers—the odds aren't with you. For example, our survey of 250 senior executives across all industries revealed that only 29 percent of acquiring executives started out with an investment thesis (defined in that survey as a "sound reason for buying a company") that stood the test of time. More than 40 percent had no investment thesis whatsoever (!). Of those who did, fully half discovered within three years of closing the deal that their thesis was wrong.

Studies conducted by other firms support the conclusion that most companies are terrifyingly unclear about why they spend their shareholders' capital on acquisitions. A 2002 Accenture study, for example, found that 83 percent of executives surveyed admitted they were unable to distinguish between the value levers of M&A deals. 11 In Booz Allen Hamilton's 1999 review of thirty-four frequent acquirers, which focused chiefly on integration, unsuccessful acquirers admitted that they fished in uncharted waters. 12 They ranked "learning about new (and potentially related) business areas" as a top reason for making an acquisition. (Surely companies should know whether a business area is related to their core before they decide to buy into it!) Successful acquirers, by contrast, were more likely to cite "leading or responding to industry restructuring" as a reason for making an acquisition, suggesting that these companies had at least thought through the strategic implications of their moves.

Not that tipping one's hat to strategy is a cure-all. In our work with companies that are thinking about doing a deal, we often hear that the acquisition is intended for "strategic" reasons. That's simply not good enough. A credible investment thesis should describe a concrete benefit, rather than a vaguely stated strategic value.

This point needs underscoring. Justifying a deal as being "strategic" ex post facto is, in most cases, an invitation to inferior returns. Given how frequently we have heard weak "strategic" justifications after a deal has closed, it's worth passing along a warning from Craig Tall, vice chair of corporate development and strategic planning at Washington Mutual. In recent years, Tall's bank has made acquisitions a key part of a stunningly successful growth record. "When I see an expensive deal," Tall told us, "and they say it was a 'strategic' deal, it's a code for me that somebody paid too much." 13

And although sometimes the best offense is a good defense, this axiom does not really stand in for a valid investment thesis. On more than a few occasions, we have been witness to deals that were initiated because an investment banker uttered the Eight Magic Words: If you don't buy it, your competitors will.

Well, so be it. If a potential acquisition is not compelling to you on its own merits, let it go. Let your competitors put their good money down, and prove that their investment theses are strong.

Let's look at a case in point: [Clear Channel Communications' leaders Lowry, Mark, and Randall] Mayses' decision to move from radios into outdoor advertising (billboards, to most of us). Based on our conversations with Randall Mays, we summarize their investment thesis for buying into the billboard business as follows:

Clear Channel's expansion into outdoor advertising leverages the company's core competencies in two ways: First, the local market sales force that is already in place to sell radio ads can now sell outdoor ads to many of the same buyers, and Clear Channel is uniquely positioned to sell both local and national advertisements. Second, similar to the radio industry twenty years ago, the outdoor advertising industry is fragmented and undercapitalized. Clear Channel has the capital needed to "roll up" a significant fraction of this industry, as well as the cash flow and management systems needed to reduce operating expenses across a consolidated business.

Note that in Clear Channel's investment thesis (at least as we've stated it), the benefits would be derived from three sources:

• Leveraging an existing sales force more extensively
• Using the balance sheet to roll up and fund an undercapitalized business
• Applying operating skills learned in the radio trade

Note also the emphasis on tangible and quantifiable results, which can be easily communicated and tested. All stakeholders, including investors, employees, debtors, and vendors, should understand why a deal will make their company stronger. Does the investment thesis make sense only to those who know the company best? If so, that's probably a bad sign. Is senior management arguing that a deal's inherent genius is too complex to be understood by all stakeholders, or simply asserting that the deal is "strategic"? These, too, are probably bad signs.

Most of the best acquirers we've studied try to get the thesis down on paper as soon as possible. Getting it down in black and white—wrapping specific words around the ideas—allows them to circulate the thesis internally and to generate reactions early and often.

The perils of the "transformational" deal . Some readers may be wondering whether there isn't a less tangible, but equally credible, rationale for an investment thesis: the transformational deal. Such transactions, which became popular in the exuberant '90s, aim to turn companies (and sometimes even whole industries) on their head and "transform" them. In effect, they change a company's basis of competition through a dramatic redeployment of assets.

The roster of companies that have favored transformational deals includes Vivendi Universal, AOL Time Warner (which changed its name back to Time Warner in October 2003), Enron, Williams, and others. Perhaps that list alone is enough to turn our readers off the concept of the transformational deal. (We admit it: We keep wanting to put that word transformational in quotes.) But let's dig a little deeper.

Sometimes what looks like a successful transformational deal is really a case of mistaken identity. In search of effective transformations, people sometimes cite the examples of DuPont—which after World War I used M&A to transform itself from a maker of explosives into a broad-based leader in the chemicals industry—and General Motors, which, through the consolidation of several car companies, transformed the auto industry. But when you actually dissect the moves of such industry winners, you find that they worked their way down the same learning curve as the best-practice companies in our global study. GM never attempted the transformational deal; instead, it rolled up smaller car companies until it had the scale to take on a Ford—and win. DuPont was similarly patient; it broadened its product scope into a range of chemistry-based industries, acquisition by acquisition.

In a more recent example, Rexam PLC has transformed itself from a broad-based conglomerate into a global leader in packaging by actively managing its portfolio and growing its core business. Beginning in the late '90s, Rexam shed diverse businesses in cyclical industries and grew scale in cans. First it acquired Europe's largest beverage-can manufacturer, Sweden's PLM, in 1999. Then it bought U.S.–based packager American National Can in 2000, making itself the largest beverage-can maker in the world. In other words, Rexam acquired with a clear investment thesis in mind: to grow scale in can making or broaden geographic scope. The collective impact of these many small steps was transformation. 14

But what of the literal transformational deal? You saw the preceding list of companies. Our advice is unequivocal: Stay out of this high-stakes game. Recent efforts to transform companies via the megadeal have failed or faltered. The glamour is blinding, which only makes the route more treacherous and the destination less clear. If you go this route, you are very likely to destroy value for your shareholders.

By definition, the transformational deal can't have a clear investment thesis, and evidence from the movement of stock prices immediately following deal announcements suggests that the market prefers deals that have a clear investment thesis. In "Deals That Create Value," for example, McKinsey scrutinized stock price movements before and after 231 corporate transactions over a five-year period. 15 The study concluded that the market prefers "expansionist" deals, in which a company "seeks to boost its market share by consolidating, by moving into new geographic regions, or by adding new distribution channels for existing products and services."

On average, McKinsey reported, deals of the "expansionist" variety earned a stock market premium in the days following their announcement. By contrast, "transformative" deals—whereby companies threw themselves bodily into a new line of business—destroyed an average of 5.3 percent of market value immediately after the deal's announcement. Translating these findings into our own terminology:

• Expansionist deals are more likely to have a clear investment thesis, while "transformative" deals often have no credible rationale.
• The market is likely to reward the former and punish the latter.

The dilution/accretion debate . One more side discussion that comes to bear on the investment thesis: Deal making is often driven by what we'll call the dilution/accretion debate . We will argue that this debate must be taken into account as you develop your investment thesis, but your thesis making should not be driven by this debate.

Simply put, a deal is dilutive if it causes the acquiring company to have lower earnings per share (EPS) than it had before the transaction. As they teach in Finance 101, this happens when the asset return on the purchased business is less than the cost of the debt or equity (e.g., through the issuance of new shares) needed to pay for the deal. Dilution can also occur when an asset is sold, because the earnings power of the business being sold is greater than the return on the alternative use of the proceeds (e.g., paying down debt, redeeming shares, or buying something else). An accretive deal, of course, has the opposite outcomes.

But that's only the first of two shoes that may drop. The second shoe is, How will Wall Street respond? Will investors punish the company (or reward it) for its dilutive ways?

Aware of this two-shoes-dropping phenomenon, many CEOs and CFOs use the litmus test of earnings accretion/dilution as the first hurdle that should be put in front of every proposed deal. One of these skilled acquirers is Citigroup's [former] CFO Todd Thomson, who told us:

It's an incredibly powerful discipline to put in place a rule of thumb that deals have to be accretive within some [specific] period of time. At Citigroup, my rule of thumb is it has to be accretive within the first twelve months, in terms of EPS, and it has to reach our capital rate of return, which is over 20 percent return within three to four years. And it has to make sense both financially and strategically, which means it has to have at least as fast a growth rate as we expect from our businesses in general, which is 10 to 15 percent a year. Now, not all of our deals meet that hurdle. But if I set that up to begin with, then if [a deal is] not going to meet that hurdle, people know they better make a heck of a compelling argument about why it doesn't have to be accretive in year one, or why it may take year four or five or six to be able to hit that return level. 16

Unfortunately, dilution is a problem that has to be wrestled with on a regular basis. As Mike Bertasso, the head of H. J. Heinz's Asia-Pacific businesses, told us, "If a business is accretive, it is probably low-growth and cheap for a reason. If it is dilutive, it's probably high-growth and attractive, and we can't afford it." 17 Even if you can't afford them, steering clear of dilutive deals seems sensible enough, on the face of it. Why would a company's leaders ever knowingly take steps that would decrease their EPS?

The answer, of course, is to invest for the future. As part of the research leading up to this book, Bain looked at a hundred deals that involved EPS accretion and dilution. All the deals were large enough and public enough to have had an effect on the buyer's stock price. The result was surprising: First-year accretion and dilution did not matter to shareholders. In other words, there was no statistical correlation between future stock performance and whether the company did an accretive or dilutive deal. If anything, the dilutive deals slightly outperformed. Why? Because dilutive deals are almost always involved in buying higher-growth assets, and therefore by their nature pass Thomson's test of a "heck of a compelling argument."

Reprinted with permission of Harvard Business School Press. Mastering the Merger: Four Critical Decisions That Make or Break the Deal , by David Harding and Sam Rovit. Copyright 2004 Bain & Company; All Rights Reserved.

[ Buy this book ]

David Harding (HBS MBA '84) is a director in Bain & Company's Boston office and is an expert in corporate strategy and organizational effectiveness.

Sam Rovit (HBS MBA '89) is a director in the Chicago office and leader of Bain & Company's Global Mergers and Acquisitions Practice.

10. Joe Trustey, telephone interview by David Harding, Bain & Company. Boston: 13 May 2003. Subsequent comments by Trustey are also from this interview.

11. Accenture, "Accenture Survey Shows Executives Are Cautiously Optimistic Regarding Future Mergers and Acquisitions," Accenture Press Release, 30 May 2002.

12. John R. Harbison, Albert J. Viscio, and Amy T. Asin, "Making Acquisitions Work: Capturing Value After the Deal," Booz Allen & Hamilton Series of View-points on Alliances, 1999.

13. Craig Tall, telephone interview by Catherine Lemire, Bain & Company. Toronto: 1 October 2002.

14. Rolf Börjesson, interview by Tom Shannon, Bain & Company. London: 2001.

15. Hans Bieshaar, Jeremy Knight, and Alexander van Wassenaer, "Deals That Create Value," McKinsey Quarterly 1 (2001).

16. Todd Thomson, speaking on "Strategic M&A in an Opportunistic Environment." (Presentation at Bain & Company's Getting Back to Offense conference, New York City, 20 June 2002.)

17. Mike Bertasso, correspondence with David Harding, 15 December 2003.

Investment Thesis: The Roadmap for Successful Investing

6 min Read June 18, 2024 at 12:47 PM UTC

An investment thesis provides a structured framework to guide the decision-making process of investors, whether individual or institutional.

An investment thesis is a well-reasoned argument that serves as the foundation for making investment decisions.

It is a written document that outlines an investor’s goals, market analysis, risk tolerance, and the specific criteria they will use to evaluate potential investment opportunities.

Essentially, an investment thesis provides a structured framework to guide an investor’s decision-making process.

Why Every Investor Needs an Investment Thesis

An investment thesis is crucial because it helps investors avoid impulsive or emotionally driven investment choices that may not align with their overall objectives.

By establishing clear principles and guidelines, an investment thesis mitigates the risks associated with poorly informed or hasty investment decisions.

Developing a robust investment thesis encourages investors to thoroughly research and analyze the market, industry, and company-specific factors that could impact an investment’s potential for success.

This due diligence process can reveal potential risks or issues that might otherwise be overlooked, ultimately protecting the investor’s capital.

Also Read: Becoming an Investor: Do it Yourself or via a Venture Fund?

Components of an Investment Thesis

While the specific components of an investment thesis may vary depending on the investor’s strategy and preferences, most comprehensive theses include the following elements:

• Investment Goals: Clearly defined objectives that the investor aims to achieve through their investments, such as capital appreciation, income generation, or a combination of both.
• Risk Tolerance: An assessment of the level of risk the investor is willing to take, which can range from conservative to aggressive.
• Market Analysis: A thorough evaluation of the market conditions, trends, and potential opportunities that could impact the investment’s performance.
• Industry Analysis: An examination of the specific industry or sector in which the investment opportunity exists, including competitive landscape, regulatory environment, and growth prospects.
• Company Analysis: A detailed assessment of the company’s financials, management team, competitive advantage, and growth prospects.
• Exit Strategy: A plan for how and when the investor intends to exit the investment, whether through an initial public offering (IPO), acquisition, or other means.

At Daba, we work alongside institutional and individual investors to help develop or refine their Africa-focused investment thesis, providing in-depth market analysis, industry insights, and company-specific assessments. Click here to learn more.

Types of Investment Theses

Investment theses can be categorized into different types, each with its own set of criteria and principles. Some common types include:

• Value Investing: This strategy focuses on identifying undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, with the expectation that the market will eventually recognize their true value, resulting in share price appreciation.
• Growth Investing: Growth investors seek companies with exceptional growth potential, often in emerging or rapidly expanding industries, to capitalize on their future earnings and revenue growth.
• Income Investing: This strategy prioritizes investments that generate consistent income streams, such as dividend-paying stocks, bonds, or real estate investment trusts (REITs).
• Socially Responsible Investing: Investors with a socially responsible investment thesis prioritize companies that demonstrate strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, aligning their investments with their ethical and moral values.

Evolving the Investment Thesis

An investment thesis should not be set in stone; it should be a living document that evolves over time as market conditions, industry trends, and the investor’s goals change.

Regular reviews and updates to the investment thesis are necessary to ensure that it remains relevant and effective.

Developing Investment Theses for Africa

Investing in Africa presents unique opportunities and challenges that require a deep understanding of the continent’s diverse markets, cultures, and regulatory environments.

At Daba, we specialize in helping investors navigate these complexities and develop robust investment theses tailored to the African context.

Our team combines on-the-ground knowledge with rigorous data analysis to provide comprehensive market insights, industry assessments, and company evaluations.

By leveraging our expertise, investors can make informed decisions and build investment theses that are well-aligned with their goals and risk tolerance for African markets.

At Daba, we work with investors to continuously monitor and assess the validity of their investment thesis for African markets. Click here to discover how our analysis and updates can help you make informed investment decisions.

Examples of Investment Thesis

Orange Cote d’ivoire (BRVM: ORAC)

Mobile money is transforming financial inclusion across West Africa. The BRVM-listed company Orange CI is at the forefront of this mobile money revolution through its subsidiary Orange Money.

While traditional banking struggles to reach rural areas, Orange Money’s mobile money services provide easy access to financial tools like payments, transfers, and savings via basic mobile phones. It is a major player in the mobile money market in Africa, operating in 18 countries as of 2020, and is the leader in multiple WAEMU markets.

Orange’s strong brand reputation, widespread mobile network coverage, and strategic partnerships with banks position it well to capitalize on the booming demand for mobile financial services across the region. The company has a stable balance sheet and consistent revenue growth from its core telecom business.

Given this pioneering role in mobile money, powerful market position, and solid financials, the company can deliver attractive returns by riding the mobile money wave sweeping West Africa. Any near-term stock price dips would present an opportune entry point. An investment thesis is not limited to stocks .

Xty Developments (Fictional)

Urbanization is rapidly accelerating across the African continent, creating massive demand for affordable housing solutions, especially in fast-growing cities. Xty Developments is an innovative property company focused on addressing this urban housing crunch.

By using modern construction techniques and embracing a scale model, Xty can construct high-quality yet affordable apartment complexes quickly and cost-effectively. Their standardized designs optimize for efficient building and operational costs.

While new property companies face execution risks, Xty’s founder has over 15 years of proven experience delivering successful projects across multiple African markets. Their current pipeline already includes lucrative developments underway in three major cities.

With rapid urbanization an unstoppable megatrend, Xty’s compelling value proposition, and the founder’s seasoned track record, we have high conviction this venture can generate outsized returns for early investors backing its expansion across key African urban centers.

Also Read: Building a Winning Fund: Portfolio Strategies and Tips

Getting Your Investment Thesis Right

An investment thesis is a critical tool for investors seeking to make well-informed and disciplined investment decisions.

By establishing clear objectives, conducting thorough research and analysis, and defining specific criteria for evaluating opportunities, an investment thesis helps mitigate risks and increase the likelihood of achieving desired returns.

Whether you are an institutional investor, fund manager, or individual investor, partnering with Daba can help you develop or refine your investment thesis for the African market, positioning you for success in this dynamic and rapidly evolving region.

This material has been presented for informational and educational purposes only. The views expressed in the articles above are generalized and may not be appropriate for all investors. The information contained in this article should not be construed as, and may not be used in connection with, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or hold, an interest in any security or investment product. There is no guarantee that past performance will recur or result in a positive outcome. Carefully consider your financial situation, including investment objective, time horizon, risk tolerance, and fees prior to making any investment decisions. No level of diversification or asset allocation can ensure profits or guarantee against losses. Articles do not reflect the views of DABA ADVISORS LLC and do not provide investment advice to Daba’s clients. Daba is not engaged in rendering tax, legal or accounting advice. Please consult a qualified professional for this type of service.

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Investment Thesis: What It Is, How To Write One & Examples

An investment thesis formulates the characteristics and criteria that define a potentially profitable investment. It outlines the reasons behind the investment decision, including various criteria, financial outcomes, and strategies to manage risks. Essentially, it serves as a detailed plan for investors.  

What is an Investment Thesis?

An investment thesis serves as a strategic blueprint for investors, guiding their decisions and actions by providing the rationale behind their investment choices. Typically crafted by financial analysts, portfolio managers, or investment professionals, the process begins with a thorough assessment of market potential. This involves scrutinizing trends, growth forecasts, and demand dynamics to identify opportunities. The investment thesis validates the significance of these opportunities by highlighting unmet needs or areas of dissatisfaction within the market.

Furthermore, it quantifies potential gains through meticulous financial scrutiny, including revenue forecasts and return on investment assessments. Beyond identifying opportunities, the investment thesis also plays a crucial role in managing risks by employing risk management tactics such as diversification and contingency plans, helping investors navigate market fluctuations and operational hurdles effectively.

Key Takeaways

• An investment thesis defines the criteria for profitable investments, providing a detailed plan and rationale for investors.
• An investment thesis serves as a guiding framework for investment decisions, enhancing comprehension and facilitating well-informed choices.
• Key components of an investment thesis include identifying the investment opportunity, clarifying goals, evaluating viability and risks, and assessing growth potential.

Understanding the Investment Thesis

An investment thesis is akin to a detailed plan for potential investments, often formulated by finance experts. It entails extensive research and analysis to articulate investment ideas effectively. While typically authored by professionals such as venture capitalists or private equity firms, individuals may also develop their own. This document holds significant importance in facilitating well-informed investment decisions, aiding both investors and companies in evaluating opportunities such as stocks or acquisitions.

By elucidating the reasons for investment, the thesis serves as a guiding framework for investors’ decisions. It streamlines decision-making processes, enhances comprehension of underlying rationales, and provides a means for investors to gauge the performance of their investments. Moreover, an investment thesis functions as a roadmap, charting the course toward successful investments.

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How to write an Investment Thesis

Crafting an investment thesis is essential for all investors, whether individuals or professionals. An investment thesis serves as a guide for making choices, explaining the reasoning behind decisions, and providing a framework for assessing investment opportunities. Here is a simple guide with the most important steps for crafting a good investment thesis:

Examples of an Investment Thesis

Portfolio managers and investment companies frequently share their investment strategies on their websites. Here are three examples from prominent investors:

Andreessen Horowitz

Andreessen Horowitz, often referred to as a16z, is a prominent venture capital firm established in 2009 by Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz. Active in the private markets, the firm invests in various sectors including AI, healthcare, consumer goods, cryptocurrency, enterprise solutions, fintech, and gaming.

Their investment strategy revolves around observing consumer trends and investing where AI intersects with consumer products. They stress the importance of developing the right AI applications to attract funding, particularly in areas like productivity enhancement and specialized tasks.

In this example, the firm explores how Moore’s Law contrasts with Eroom's Law in healthcare costs. They propose leveraging AI to cut costs and enhance outcomes by gradually integrating it into workflows. Combining AI with life sciences advancements offers transformative opportunities, advocating for a gradual transition to revolutionize healthcare and life sciences. [1]

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs is a global financial powerhouse operating in major financial hubs worldwide, offering services in investment banking, IPO underwriting, securities trading, wealth, and asset management.

The bank’s investment thesis has resulted in a $1 billion investment in companies led by diverse individuals through the “Launch With GS” program aimed at supporting diverse leadership. [2] Goldman Sach collaborates with clients to invest in diverse General Partners across various strategies and offers the Entrepreneur Cohort for growth, reflecting their commitment to diversity and inclusion for achieving strong investment returns and driving industry innovation. [3]

ARK Invest provides  ETFs focused on disruptive innovation like AI and blockchain. The firm remains committed to long-term growth, leveraging innovative strategies and deep research across various sectors, including cryptocurrencies.

The Ark Invest thesis revolves around disruptive innovation, targeting transformative technologies nearing tipping points. They focus on five innovation platforms: AI, Robotics, Energy Storage, DNA Sequencing, and Blockchain. Ark Invest’s approach blends top-down and bottom-up research for early innovation capture and long-term value creation. Emphasizing high-conviction bets, long-term investment, and industry focus, Ark Invest anticipates exponential growth to benefit from technological disruptions. [4]

What should be in an investment thesis?

As an important document, an investment thesis explains why an investment opportunity is expected to be profitable. It should include key components to thoroughly analyze and guide decision-making effectively. These 7 pieces of information are indispensable:

• The Investment in Question: Identify the reason and the investment opportunity under consideration.
• Investment Goal(s): Clarify the investment's aims and aspirations by defining its objectives and goals.
• Viability of the Investment: Evaluate the investment's potential, considering any favorable trends or factors.
• Potential Downsides and Risks: Address and analyze the risks associated with the investment, highlighting any potential challenges or drawbacks.
• Costs and Potential Returns: Evaluate the financial aspects of the investment, including costs, expected returns, and potential losses.
• Alignment with Intended Goals: Ensure that the investment aligns with the overall investment objectives and strategies.
• Growth Potential: Assess the growth prospects of the investment opportunity.

What is the difference between investment thesis and investment mandate?

An investment thesis is the reasoning behind an investment strategy, based on research and analysis, helping investors make informed decisions. Conversely, an investment mandate is a set of instructions given by an investor to a manager, guiding how to manage funds according to the investor’s goals, risk tolerance, and desired outcomes. Here are the key differences:

What is a trade thesis?

A trading thesis is essentially an idea or argument made by a trader or investor about a particular financial instrument, market or asset. This process explains the reasoning behind a trading decision, considering things like market trends, economic indicators, and technical or fundamental analysis. This thesis acts as a plan for understanding the reasons behind a trade and what factors are likely to influence its outcome, aiding in making informed decisions in financial markets. Having a clear trading thesis helps traders and investors clarify their strategy and evaluate the possible risks and rewards of a trade.

Article Source

• Andreessen Horowitz: “ AI at the Intersection: The a16z Investment Thesis on AI in Bio + Health ”
• Goldman Sachs: “ Launch With GS ”
• Goldman Sachs: “ Goldman Sachs Research ”
• Ark Invest: “ Big Ideas 2022 ”  

Investment Thesis

An investment thesis refers to a set of criteria and principles that investors use to guide their decision-making process when evaluating potential investment opportunities. It serves as a framework that helps investors determine whether an investment aligns with their goals and risk tolerance.

1. Why is an investment thesis important?

An investment thesis is important because it provides a structured approach to evaluating investment opportunities. It helps investors make informed decisions based on their objectives, risk appetite, and market conditions.

2. What are the components of an investment thesis?

An investment thesis typically includes the following components:

• Investment goals : Clearly defined objectives that an investor aims to achieve through their investments.
• Risk tolerance : An assessment of the level of risk an investor is willing to take.
• Market analysis : A thorough evaluation of the market conditions, trends, and potential opportunities.
• Industry analysis : An examination of the specific industry or sector in which the investment opportunity exists.
• Company analysis : A detailed assessment of the company's financials, management team, competitive advantage, and growth prospects.
• Exit strategy : A plan for how and when the investor intends to exit the investment.

3. How does an investment thesis help mitigate risks?

By establishing clear criteria and principles, an investment thesis helps investors avoid impulsive or emotionally-driven investment decisions. It ensures that investments are aligned with the investor's goals and risk tolerance, reducing the likelihood of making poor investment choices.

4. Can an investment thesis change over time?

Yes, an investment thesis can evolve over time. As market conditions, industry trends, and an investor's goals change, it may be necessary to adjust the investment thesis accordingly. Regular reviews and updates to the investment thesis help ensure that it remains relevant and effective.

5. Are there different types of investment theses?

Yes, there can be various types of investment theses depending on the investor's strategy and preferences. Some common types include value investing, growth investing, income investing, and socially responsible investing. Each type focuses on different criteria and principles to guide investment decisions.

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An Investment Thesis: The Key To Making More Money Long Term

In general, the longer you stay invested, the greater your chance of making money. To help you maintain a long-term investment approach, it's imperative to develop an investment thesis.

Drawing from my experience in investing since 1995, it's sometimes easy to get shaken out of a particular investment. Or it’s easier for some people to just keep their money sitting in cash out of fear of financial loss. I get it. I’ve lost plenty of money before because there are no guarantees when you take risk.

I observed panic selling during the 2000 dot bomb and 2008 global financial crisis, affecting both stock and real estate sellers. More recently, I witnessed panic selling at the beginning of the global pandemic in 2020. The events lead me to try and allay fears with the post, “ How to Predict the Stock Market Bottom like Nostradamus .”

Having a solid investment thesis, as long as it remains intact, will provide you with the courage and confidence to hold on for the long term.

The Importance Of Developing An Investment Thesis When Investing

Let me go through some examples of how having an investment thesis has helped me hold long-term and make more money overtime. Coming up with an investment thesis also helped me make a significant decision on a recent dilemma. At the end of this post, I'll also share what makes a good investment thesis.

If you are just starting out and are fearful of investing your hard-earned money, developing an investment thesis will help you take action. To beat inflation , you must continuously invest over the long term. If you don’t overcome your fear of investing, then you will likely fall way behind over time.

Please know that you don't have to be a great investor to make money. You just need to be a good-enough investor to significantly outperform a large part of the population that does not save and invest aggressively.

1) Heartland Real Estate Investment Thesis

In 2016, I published my post titled “ Focus on Trends: Why I'm Investing in the Heartland of America .” My investment thesis was based on the anticipation that more people would relocate to lower-cost areas of the country due to advancements in technology and the increasing ability to work from home. Additionally, I believed that Trump's victory would contribute to increased interest, funding, and expansion in red states.

Given the uncertainty of which specific real estate investment deal to pursue, I opted to invest in a couple of funds that focused on acquiring real estate in the heartland of America. Now, eight years and $954,000 later, I have generally witnessed positive returns on my investments. Texas properties, in particular, have performed quite well since 2016. However, as I shared in my post on private real estate investing after eight years , there have also been some duds as well.

Investing for such an extended period has been relatively straightforward. In the realm of private funds , the expected distributions typically span between 5-10 years.

Based on my investment thesis of a demographic shift to the heartland, I logically looked for real estate investment firms that had the same investment thesis. And I found one in 2016 in Fundrise. Fundrise predominantly invests in the Sunbelt region where valuations tend to be lower and rental yields tend to be higher.

2) San Francisco Real Estate Investment Thesis

When I arrived in San Francisco in 2001, I was amazed by the affordability of real estate compared to New York City. Properties were priced 20 to 30% lower, offering more space for the same cost or a similar property for less.

At that time, compensation in the finance industry was comparable between the two cities at my level. My investment thesis was that prices in SF would catch up to prices in Manhattan due to a better quality of life and the growth of technology.

Didn’t Want To Miss Out On The Tech Boom

My firm played a role in taking Facebook and Google public in the early 2000s. As a result, I anticipated a resurgence in Web 2.0. Lacking the skills or connections to enter the tech industry, I opted to invest in tech stocks and acquire rental properties instead.

Overall, San Francisco property prices have shown positive performance. The excitement of living in a big city attracts billions of people. However, the city's reputation suffered post-pandemic due to hesitancy by officials to address criminal activities and remove drug dealers downtown.

Thankfully, to stay in power, politicians must address corruption, tackle crime, clean up the city, and provide tax incentives for businesses to thrive. Citizens discontented with criminal activities are likely to vote out ideological politicians and judges who harm the community. Consequently, there is potential for the city's image to be restored post 2024 election, leading to a recovery in real estate prices.

Deja Vu With Artificial Intelligence

Since 2023 there has been an extraordinary surge in tech stock prices. Fueled by substantial bonuses and robust portfolios, I anticipate that a portion of this wealth will flow back into San Francisco Bay Area real estate. Redfin reports that luxury home prices are reaching all-time highs , attracting a significant number of all-cash buyers .

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is evoking a sense of déjà vu, reminiscent of 25 years ago when the internet promised to revolutionize the world. Today, it is equally apparent that AI will shape the world in the next two decades.

Despite the likelihood that most of us won't secure lucrative AI jobs due to intense competition, there's an opportunity for ordinary individuals to invest in AI companies. Beyond public companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook, private investments can be made through open-ended venture capital funds like the one offered by Fundrise.

Fundrise launched its venture capital product at the end of 2022, which was great timing given private company valuations had corrected. The investment minimum is only $10, so everybody can participate. You can see the holdings, and the fees are much lower than closed-end venture capital funds.

I am personally adopting this approach by investing in both public and private AI-related companies. My goal is to allocate $500,000 to these companies over the next five years. This strategy not only positions me for potential gains but also serves as a hedge against the challenges AI might pose for our children in terms of job opportunities.

AI Facilitated My Property Decision

In my previous post, “ Rent out, sell, or create a wellness center, ” I detailed my dilemma regarding what to do with my old house. At 46 years old, with two young children and already managing four rental properties, the prospect of overseeing another rental didn't appeal to me.

Being a landlord can be burdensome, particularly when dealing with challenging tenants or constant maintenance issues. Such responsibilities take away time that could be better spent on more enjoyable activities, like playing tennis or spending quality moments with my kids.

After reading through the comments on my post, which provided diverse opinions on the course of action, I weighed the options and arrived at a decision to rent out the house and hold it for the long term. The deciding factor was the formulation of an investment thesis.

Why Renting Out Is Better For Now

My investment thesis revolves around the belief that owning a single-family home on the west side of San Francisco is a sound decision. Local economic catalysts, including the opening of a large school in the fall of 2024 and the $4 billion renovation of the UCSF Parnassus Hospital by 2030 (expected to create 1400 new jobs), indicate a positive trajectory for real estate on the west side.

Remote work is here to stay. In addition, there is a demographic transition from downtown on the east side to the west side. The final catalyst for my decision to rent out is the anticipated wealth generated by Artificial Intelligence (AI) for employees and investors. As a result, I will suck it up as a landlord for the next 3-5 years and then reevaluate. The earliest I'd relocate to Honolulu, Hawaii is in 2030.

I spoke to Ben Miller, CEO of Fundrise , and he believes we're past the real estate market as do I. As a result, holding onto my property and renting it out makes even more sense.

3) The Vision Pro Investment Thesis For Apple

I've owned Apple stock since 2012 and it has done well. With the S&P 500 surpassing 4,900, I've faced increasing challenges in finding compelling stock investments. However, when the Vision Pro was unveiled on February 2, 2024, my interest was piqued.

At that time, Apple had just reported somewhat soft quarterly results, causing a dip in the stock. I contemplated whether this could be the opportunity to further invest in the company. After dedicating several hours to researching the Vision Pro, I concluded that the answer was affirmative.

Apple's new Vision Pro is a significant accessibility tool for the visually impaired . Approximately 2.2 billion people worldwide experience some form of visual impairment. While an estimated 237 million face moderate to severe impairment. Among them, 40 million are considered legally blind or completely blind. This figure is expected to rise to 115 million by 2050.

Consequently, I believe the Vision Pro holds the promise of greatly assisting a substantial portion of the global population in enhancing their vision and interaction capabilities. Considering the critical importance of sight, the demand for this product should be relatively inelastic for the visually impaired. Furthermore, Apple is likely to enhance the product over time and reduce its retail cost. I can’t wait for version 2 and 3.

An Example Of How The Vision Pro Can Help The Visually Impaired

If you have regular sight or can correct your myopia or hyperopia with glasses or contact lenses, then you might take for granted your vision. Seeing a small screen on your phone or the 10-point font size on a menu is usually not a problem. For for those with visual impairments, it can be.

This Vision Pro commercial succinctly captures one of its many benefits for the visually impaired.

Apple is already an outstanding company with intelligent employees and an impressive product line. Further, it is cash flow positive with substantial cash reserves and a dividend payout. My confidence in investing in Apple stock aligns with my confidence in the S&P 500. However, I anticipate additional upside potential, particularly with the introduction of the Vision Pro and how Apple with integrate artificial intelligence with all its products.

Note: The definition of legally blind means the inability to correct your visual accuity to at least 20/200 with corrective lenses. Most people can correct their visual acuity to 20/20 to 20/40 with glasses or contacts. Legally blind usually does not mean complete blindness, as many people who are legally blind still have some vision.

America The Great: The Ultimate Investment Thesis

I harbor a home country bias as an American patriot. I've resided in this country since 1991 and have payed six figures in taxes annually since 2003. My children were born on American soil. In addition, I've crafted over 2300 personal finance posts aimed primarily at aiding Americans in achieving financial freedom sooner. These experiences have fostered my deep connection and commitment to this nation.

I envision my final days in America, leaving behind a positive legacy . Consequently, my long-term outlook is bullish and biased on owning American assets.

The greatness of America, in my belief, stems from:

• Entrepreneurial spirit
• Strong work ethic
• A stable democratic government
• A robust legal system safeguarding intellectual property and individual rights
• A formidable defense industry ensuring citizens' protection
• A stable world currency
• Generally thoughtful and kind people aspiring to assist others globally in attaining freedom
• A history of unity during times of crisis, exemplified by events like 9/11 and the pandemic

While acknowledging America's challenges—crime, poverty, socioeconomic injustices—I consider it unwise to bet against its long-term excellence. The collective willpower of our nation, I believe, will drive ongoing positive improvements.

I advocate that everyone, globally, should find a way to own a piece of America . You can do so by buying the S&P 500 or U.S. physical real estate or private real estate.

In 50 years, when our grandchildren become adults, they will appreciate our foresight in investing in America today. Despite inevitable economic fluctuations, with a well-defined investment thesis, we stand to accumulate wealth beyond our current imagination.

What Makes A Good Investment Thesis

A good investment thesis is a well-researched and articulated rationale behind an investment decision. It serves as a comprehensive guide that outlines the reasons and expectations for choosing a particular investment. Here are key characteristics of a good investment thesis:

• Clear and Concise: The thesis should be easily understandable and to the point.
• Supported by Research: Ground your thesis in thorough research, including fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and an understanding of relevant economic and market trends.
• Alignment with Goals: Clearly state how the investment aligns with your overall financial goals and objectives. Whether it's capital appreciation, passive income generation , or risk mitigation, the thesis should reflect your goals.
• Identifies Investment Opportunity: Specify the investment opportunity or opportunities you have identified. This could involve a specific asset class, industry, sector, or individual securities.
• Analysis of Risks: Acknowledge and assess the risks, challenges, and uncertainties associated with the investment.
• Time Horizon: Clearly define your time horizon for the investment. Specify whether it's a short-term trade, a long-term hold, or something in between.
• Competitive Advantage: Understand what sets it apart from competitors and how it plans to sustain or enhance that advantage.
• Financial Metrics: Include relevant financial metrics supporting your investment decision. This may include valuation ratios, growth rates, profitability, and other key financial indicators.
• Scenario Analysis: Consider different scenarios and outcomes. A well-thought-out thesis anticipates how the investment might perform under various circumstances.
• Adaptable and Dynamic: Recognize that market conditions can change. A good investment thesis is adaptable and allows for adjustments based on new information or changing circumstances.
• Exit Strategy: Clearly outline your exit strategy. Know under what conditions you would sell or reduce your position.
• Communication: Share your thesis with others to find any blind spots, like I am with this post. Others should be able to understand your rationale and analysis.

Keeping updating your investment thesis over time

Having a good investment thesis won't guarantee success, but it's like a roadmap for your investments. Keep updating it based on what's happening in the market, and make sure you invest for the long term.

For example, after the failed assassination attempt on July 15, 2024, Trump will likely become the 47th president of the United States. As a result, there may be further upside with your investments in 2025 and beyond. Here's a detailed article on what Trump's presidency means for your money .

Investment theses can vary in quality, and sometimes you might get the investment right with the wrong thesis. The main thing is to have a good reason why you're investing, so you stick with it over time.

In 10 years, you'll probably end up with more money who keeps investing for the long haul, compared to someone who doesn't invest or tries to time the market. Decide which situation you want to have in the future.

Invest In Private Growth Companies

If you believe artificial intelligence will be an important economic driver, check out Fundrise . Fundrise invests in the following five sectors:

• Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning
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• Development Operations (DevOps)
• Financial Technology (FinTech)
• Real Estate & Property Technology (PropTech)

Roughly 90% of Fundrise's venture capital product has exposure to artificial intelligence. In 20 years, I don't want my kids wondering why I didn't invest in AI or work in AI.

The investment minimum is also only $10. Most venture capital funds have a $250,000+ minimum. You can see what Fundrise is holding before deciding to invest and how much. Traditional venture capital funds require capital commitment first and then hope the general partners will find great investments.

Fundrise is a long-term sponsor of Financial Samurai and Financial Samurai is an investor in Fundrise.

About The Author

Financial Samurai

35 thoughts on “an investment thesis: the key to making more money long term”.

Folks investing should have an Investment Policy Statement (IPS).

Scope & Purpose: “The investment policy statement (IPS) will govern how the financial assets of ____________ are to be invested.”

RESPONSIBILITIES:

“__________ is responsible for coordinating updates to the IPS and responsible for monitoring the application of the IPS and shall notify ETFguide of the need for updates to the IPS and/or violations of the IPS implementation. _________ shall be responsible for approving the IPS and all subsequent revisions of it.

Changes in life circumstances including the birth of a child, retirement, disability, divorce, or family death will impact all future adjustments and responsibilities to this document.”

Research the subject and find a Financial Advisor (RIA) firm that prepares such IPS reports and go over your situation with them. Ron Delegge at ETFguide can prepare an IPS for you for a reasonable fee. You can find his firm online.

your quote sums up our last 40+ years of heavy real estate investing vs investing in equities.

“Since 1996, I’ve discovered that having a well-defined investment thesis increases the likelihood of consistently investing and holding onto investments during challenging periods. As the old saying goes, ‘time in the market is more important than timing the market.’ This lesson came to me the hard way during the first 10 years of my investing career.”

We were told many times that we would lose it all, go bankrupt, have to grovel to return to work & suffer the never ending torment of bad tenants & damages. We could write a book on it all, as it definitely was not easy, but since 1998 (& retired) we have been free & clear on every property since, have no debt since & live comfortably between three homes during the year after selling our 4th, a FL home of 31 years, just before H. Ian hit. love your articles & financial insight.

My California real estate thesis is this:

Despite numerous rent control efforts and the State’s (and most coastal counties’) hostility towards landlords, I think California residential real estate will be very lucrative for landlords assuming they have sufficient cash on hand to withstand vacancies, evictions, cash for keys, etc.

This is because rent control decreases landlord and developer participation in providing housing and thus leads to fewer units on the market. Fewer units on the market will increase rental prices.

Hi, like you I own and manage a few rental properties in the city, which is our primary income. Although the rental market here isn’t great, at least it’s stabilized. It’s like survive until 2025 and hopefully things will turn around in SF. These upcoming city elections, with a swell of moderate candidates will hopefully make a tangible difference in quality of life issues, which of course have hurt SF’s reputation worldwide.

I’m also bullish on the potential for the AI industry. But work from home is pervasive and I think downtown and soma are going to be challenged for several years. Also tech firms are less concentrated in the Bay Area now and getting more distributed in 2nd tier cities. The saving grace for SF is that many local neighborhoods are now more cleaned up and also have thriving foot traffic, if it’s the mission, inner sunset, etc. So I feel good about the future of good and established SF neighborhoods, which is where I own properties.

SF has roughly doubled in value every 10years, which is amazing. The first chart in this report is a good visual, https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-a-baby The main thing I need to wrap my head around is that I think the next 5-10 years will not have the amazing appreciation that we’ve had since the mid-late 90’s when I started investing. I honestly got used to that phenomenal rate growth, but I’m trying to set more modest expectations going forward.

How bullish are you on future SF appreciation? Do you think it will be anything like the last 30 years?

The market may simmer this year. But I think it’ll eventually go up again by a rate of 3.5 to 5% a year. If you look at the historical cycles, there’s generally about 4 to 5 years of flat lining.

Given we’re already at a high base, the growth rate of appreciation won’t be as high as in the past. That said, I think there’s gonna be another renaissance of Wealth being created over the next 10 to 20 years with new tech / AI.

What the cost of building materials, labor, and restrictive building should help push real estate prices higher.

Yeah 3.5-4.5% SF real estate returns over the next 5-10 years is probably realistic. 7% is unlikely, which is what we’ve gotten used to :) Without that outsized 7% equity return, and holding my properties debt free (no leverage), keeping them long term vs selling and going into the stock market becomes a much closer call.

My cash on cash on my RE is 3.5-4%, plus 3.5-4.5% expected appreciation totals 7-8.5% total returns, which is roughly in line with s&p 500 long term returns. Tax treatment favors RE, but then again with stocks you don’t need to deal with tenants and repairs. But of course the main issue is transferring my RE equity into stocks is bloody expensive, with sales expenses and capital gains of about 37%. So I’m still better off holding the RE. My only issue is that I’m heavily RE weighed, with only a small stocks portfolio. My plan has been to dollar cost average excess RE profits into stocks to better balance my portfolio.

I’ll just have to see what transpires over the next 2-3 years to our fair city, plus evaluate the macro economic picture. I guess this “sell RE, buy stocks” dilemma isn’t such a bad problem to have. But nevertheless it’s nice to have a “safe space” (sic) such as this blog where wealthy people can freely cry about their problems…IRW anytime I bring this up to people it’s like, “wait, let me get the worlds smallest violin to play for you” :)

Innovation Fund vs going after AI public companies like the following that are already established and surging YTD. Thinking the latter might be more attractive and with less risk.

Nividia TSMC Arm SoundHound

I don’t have thesis, only several points: -Only buy S&P 500 index with lowest fee. -No trading, hold for LONG time. – Maximize all tax deferred accounts. – No investment in a single company since I have no control over management. I bought and didn’t look at my account for years . I just recently checked and saw that it has 13% compounding interest making me millionaire.

Well done. Don’t forget to capitalize on your investments by selling on occasion to buy things you want and improve the quality of your life. Otherwise, there’s really no point to investing in stocks.

Is there a fundrise equivalent for non-US citizens? Thanks in advance. Dave

Hi Dave, I’m not aware of one. You can just invest in a public real estate ETF like VNQ or one of the publicly-traded REITs like O. Just know they are more volatile.

Just to clarify, Innovation Fund is not currently open to new investors but has a “waitlist.”

Also what is happening with publically traded companies in the AI thesis seems to me to mean that not really necessary to take on added risk of start-ups. just look at recent performance of ARM SMCi and NVDA. and that is just a few. i will continue inverting in a broad 10-12 public stocks and sure to gain solid and not massive returns. i look at it this way, if a start up here or there will do 10x and some will bust, leaving you with overall 3-4 times return, then i am likely to better with the established companies in a sector where the revolution has just begun. smci is up 3x in just a month.

That’s weird. I just checked with Fundrise and the Innovation Fund is open to investors.

“The Innovation Fund is OPEN to new investors. It is possible this person is unable to make a direct investment into the fund if they are an existing investor who is not a Pro member. This is something we’re working on.

But to reiterate the fund is open to new investors.

If you select the Venture Capital investment plan during signup you can invest in the Innovation Fund.”

I’m an existing investor and don’t believe I’m a pro member. I’m able to invest in the Innovation Fund.

i’m an existing investor but not a pro member and i am not able to invest in Innovation fund so must fall into that segment. it is not provided as an option when i select “browse investments” in my account. i then read a review of the fund from late 2023, i will try to post, and it did say that it wasn’t open to all yet. it did said all you needed was $10 to start.

You should reach out to them and let them know.

ASH01 – What are the 10-12 AI public companies you are targeting besides Nividia, smci and ARM? Thoughts on TSMC & SoundHound? I tend to agree with your thesis. Why take on the private risk when the public companies should still be in their infancy in terms of AI growth.

As discussed earlier, here is my investment thesis which could be quite controversial:

1. A portfolio of 50/50 real estate vs. stock. The stock portion should not be lower but could be much higher. Holding real estate is mostly for pleasure/need and rent. Rental properties are all places i would want to live. Once pleasure part of real estate is no longer needed, should graduate to stocks or to rental units.

2. Stocks is a mix of SP500 and Tech i.e. Nasdaq 100, XLK, VOOG and also exposure to single high performing stock. No international stock. No bonds. Mostly automated invested to cost average. Real estate rental income is the security in case stock market crashes.

3. Flexible and nimble approach. Whenever the market is down, try investing more and don’t withdraw funds.

4. No investment in private funds, real estate funds, bitcoin and other cryptos which i dont understand and have no transparency. No need to complicate.

Sounds good. What’s your investment thesis though for your tech stocks?

It’s a good mantra to not invest in what you don’t understand.

I really enjoy investing private funds (VC, VD, real estate) as it forces me to invest for the long term ~10 years. The capital calls also keep me investing even when I might not want to.

I am excited about building out, my artificial intelligence exposure, and I have one from the invested in Ripple, which has turned out to be maybe a 20-40X return. Maybe I can cash out just in time to buy a new car in 2027, when my current car is 12 years old.

Here’s an example of an AI company one of my private funds (Kleiner) is investing in. I’m pumped! https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/06/ambience-healthcare-raises-70m-for-its-ai-assistant-led-by-openai-and-kleiner-perkins/

I’m also excited about the AI investments in the Fundrise Innovation Fund , like Databricks.

Sounds good. As for tech, i have a single stock exposure due to my employment which is doing better than market and is a great company that does good work. So thesis for that is don’t fix what is working. As for the rest, my strategy is similar to most here – i Invest in 15-20% of stock portfolio in QQQ and lesser to XLK and VOOG which are Apple, Microsoft heavy – i believe i get enough AI and other exposure through these since i dont know what the next big thing will be.

One last point. I am very bullish about US Stocks for the following reasons:

1. European markets are not performing. On surface, it appears cheap to buy however not a single tech company in the top 100 European companies. 2. China stock market is not performing. Significant decline and volatility. Could be the beginning of a Japan like deflation and decline. 3. US is the center of AI and innovation. 4. Stock ownership, although at historical highs is still low among Americans being at approx 56%.

In couple years, i think everyone will want a piece of the US companies. Already evidenced by the fact that Shiller CAPE after 80s is much higher than historically has been. Could this lead to a bubble? Definitely – but it could well last 10-20 years and the fundamentals could also catch up in the meanwhile either due to AI generated earnings or something else and optimism pays when investing!

My best thesis was investing in semiconductor stocks. Roughly 5 years ago I noticed how almost everything needed a chip. My thesis proved itself out during the pandemic. You couldn’t get a car, dishwasher or any smart device because chips weren’t available. I bought AMD, NVDA, and Intel. 2 of them worked out pretty good. I was banking on the cloud and data centers to boom. That part worked out okay. I didn’t see any of the AI craze coming which has been hugely beneficial. Decent thesis and a ton of luck!

Nice! But what about the future?

Take a little profit and hold the rest for another 5 years. I realize we’re right in the middle of AI mania but everything I read and watch tells me we’re still in the early days of AI.

No matter what happens we’re still going to need more chips to power all our future ambitions

so interesting how almost nobody but nvda saw the AI craze coming. that one earnings report by them set this whole thing off about a year ago. such an interesting phenomenon. AI has been talked about for many years but then suddenly companies decide to try to make a product of it in a massive scale. nvda explosion in earning was because companies suddenly ordered their chips.

Yup, I spend hours a day watching cnbc, reading blogs and doing research and I truly didn’t know what AI could do or how much money companies could make off it. Luck is definitely a factor.

VTI + VXUS + long haul = chill

Agree, but it’s hard to retire earlier by just investing in the total stock market. There are two levels of wealth , the top-tier wealth did not get there by investing in ETFs or index funds.

100% agree with you on that front! BUT I do personally believe that 95% of people will accumulate more wealth through regular and automated index investing over time vs. active investment strategies such as picking 1:1 stocks. I would guess you also have a sizable audience base that loves the content but also leans toward simple investing strategies over the long haul and not constantly stressing about achieving the top tier of wealth. The content here can sometimes make you feel behind, overly stressed that you’ll never have enough, and stuck stressing about the future. I personally have to step back and remember it’s really about regular investing (in your strategies of choice) + time in the market and not timing the market. Which I personally think is a sound investment thesis! Love the content though to be clear. It’s really helped me think about allocation percentages and mortgage payoff strategies.

Yes, good points. For most people, buying a primary residence and regularly investing in an S&P 500 index fund is a great long-term strategy.

Personally, I like to always be challenged bc it’s fun. Even if I fail, I will likely have accumulated more than if I hadn’t pushed myself.

From my coaching days, the players who advance the most are pushed the hardest.

But good reminder to press the easy button once in a while for readers who may be burning out or feeling behind.

I love your clear and specific convictions in your investment thesis. That’s something I need to work on. Very cool on the Apple Vision Pro. I don’t have anything specific in my own investments. Although I do believe in long term real estate, stock, and tech exposure. Thanks for the list of steps on creating an investment thesis.

I’ve been investing since the mid-1980s. Every time I’ve evaluated my portfolio against a portfolio of index funds using backtesting of 5 years and more, the index funds (with expenses deducted) have beaten my portfolio’s performance over a 5+ year time horizon. I’ve finally realized that I have a lot more money today if I’d purchase a mix of three low-cost, passively managed index funds. My latest lesson occurred during the latest 5 year period in which my portfolio performed well. It did what it was designed to do (mitigate losses during down markets like 2022). I was only down 2% that year. Unfortunately, if I had invested in a mix of SCHD (50%), SCHG (25%), and SWPPX (25%), that portfolio would have crushed my performance by a wide margin. Yes, it lost more money in 2022 (around 14.75%) but dramatically exceeded its performance in the other four years. I’m done trying to be smart. I’m buying a mix of passive ETFs and accepting the market risk.

Thanks for posting that. You basically stated my “investment thesis”:

1. My assets must grow in order for me to keep up with long term inflation 2. Over the long haul it’s very difficult for me to outperform the market 3. Figuring out my my risk tolerance and indexing accordingly is probably my best bet

No different than you, it’s taken since the mid 1980’s for this reality to really set in…

Those are great points Vaughn. Keep the focus and stay invested for the long term!

Active funds underperform their benchmark passive index >95% of the time after 10 years. With retail investors its over 99% with average underperformance by 4% *annually*. The 1% that crush due to lucky pick with concentration are the reason people still do it, but I’d rather have a 99x higher chance to have a +4% CAGR *and* barely think about it.

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Who is Still Investing in Real Estate Tech? 1H 2024 Edition

Our updated list of firms actively investing in real estate technology companies.

Earlier this week, we shared the high-level results of Thesis Driven’s biannual real estate tech investor survey . Today’s letter will dig into the specific investors tackling each sector and Thesis Driven’s estimates of who is still actively investing in proptech companies.

Broadly, investors expect a rebound in 2024 from the past year’s lows, with almost 2/3 of real estate tech investors expecting a higher volume of venture dollars deployed this year. But capital is unlikely to be evenly distributed across categories. Some sectors—data and AI and construction tech, for example—draw tremendous interest, while others such as brick-and-mortar and consumer business are left out in the cold.

Today’s letter will dive into firm-by-firm data. For most firms, we were able to gather:

Whether or not they “lead” rounds and are still making investments;

Stages at which they invest;

Sectors of real estate tech of most interest;

Whether they invest in “ PropCo ” structures as well;

An example recent investment.

Read on for the full list. If any investors not on this list would like to be included, please reach out to me at [email protected] for a link to the poll.

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Lemniscap Raises $70 Million For New Fund to Back Emergent Web3 Trends and Pioneering Founders

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Aug 28, 2024, 10:30 ET

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GEORGE TOWN , Cayman Islands , Aug. 28, 2024 /PRNewswire/ --  Lemniscap , a global thesis-driven investment firm backing early-stage Web3 founders, has raised a $70 million fund to provide financial backing and strategic guidance to help nascent Web3 startups scale at pace.

The generalist $70 million fund will focus on a broad range of opportunities across the blockchain ecosystem, with some of the key areas of interest including Zero Knowledge Infrastructure, Consumer Applications, emerging Bitcoin Ecosystem, Security, Phygital and Decentralised Physical Infrastructure (DePin). The fund is anchored by Accolade Partners , one of the largest Fund of Funds in the US, specialising in early-stage VC, growth equity and blockchain fund investments.

Lemniscap was founded in 2017 by Roderik van der Graaf , whose strong financial background includes tenure at some of the world's most renowned financial institutions such as Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Rabobank and Bear Stearns. Having provided strategic advisory to early-stage blockchain companies since 2014, Roderik was uniquely positioned to launch an institutional grade investment firm tailored to the then niche space. He set about assembling a cohesive team of crypto -native veterans with synergetic experience combining Finance, Economics, Computer Science, and Entrepreneurship. Since the firm's inception, the core team has remained intact, firmly aligned on a long-term mission to power a decentralised and transparent future.

Roderik van der Graaf , Founder and Managing Partner of Lemniscap, said : "In the seven years since we launched, reputation has become one of our strongest brands among founders, who we genuinely treat as partners. They represent our strongest edge when it comes to sourcing rich intelligence, building lasting partnerships, and honing in on early-stage, high-potential opportunities. This new fund will give us significant financial firepower to support the next generation of ambitious industry pioneers."

Having developed, launched and managed multiple funds to date, significantly outperforming industry benchmarks and market peers, Lemniscap has established impeccable credentials among Web3 founders across the industry spectrum. Its first fund was launched at the tail end of 2017, right before the sharp market decline of 2018. Throughout the downturn, Lemniscap continued sourcing quality projects, and the bets the firm placed in 2018 have yielded substantial gains. Lemniscap's foundational market thesis and investment rationale have remained intact throughout periods of market volatility and regulatory uncertainty.

To date, Lemniscap has made over 130 investments, growing from a follow-on investor to one of the Web3 industry's most prominent lead investors and high conviction allocators. The Lemniscap portfolio has expanded to include top protocols and some of the most critical infrastructural solutions powering the Web3 industry, with flagship investments including Avalanche , The Graph , Axelar , StepN , Paragraph , LN Markets as well as Aligned Layer , Axelar , Eigen Layer , Puffer , Monad , and Anoma .

Marcos Veremis , Partner of Accolade Partners said : "Having already launched multiple successful funds underpinned by methodical, battle-tested investment theses, the Lemniscap team has proven adept at sourcing exceptional founders and projects at the cutting edge of Web3 innovation. We are supremely confident in the fund's strategy and management team, and look forward to a prosperous and collaborative working relationship."

The Lemniscap team's multidisciplinary experience and deep-level Web3 expertise have helped them develop a nuanced understanding of the needs of founders operating in today's frenetic and regulatory-sensitive industry. Lemniscap's holistic approach to portfolio management prioritises long-term success rather than short-term gains, ensuring that each investment is nurtured comprehensively. Through ongoing, extensive market analysis, the team has their fingers on the pulse of impending technological advancements and future investment opportunities therein, giving them a distinct edge in the competitive market.

Shaishav Todi , General Partner at Lemniscap, said : "At Lemniscap, we believe that fostering innovation at the grassroots level is essential for building a robust and resilient decentralised ecosystem. Lemniscap takes great pride in being able to identify and help define emerging verticals – underpinned by scalable solutions with well-defined product roadmaps. Today's announcement is another step in that journey, and we're excited to continue working with founders who share our vision of a decentralised, transparent, and equitable digital future."

About Lemniscap

Lemniscap is an investment firm specialising in investments in emerging crypto assets and blockchain startups. Since its founding in 2017, Lemniscap has funded multiple investments in the crypto blockchain space, on the core belief that blockchain technology will upend traditional business models, resulting in profound changes in the world economy. The Lemniscap team consists of talented people with backgrounds in financial markets, Venture Capital, technology and entrepreneurship. For more information, visit   https://lemniscap.com/ .

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