research climate change in new zealand

New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute

Find out how the New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute got started and how it works.

Prestigious ranking recognises thought leadership

The New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute has been identified as globally influential by the Global Go To Think Tank Index Report. Published by the University of Pennsylvania in the United States, this prestigious report is a closely watched annual survey of the work of over 6,000 international think tanks.

The latest report ranked the Institute as one of the world’s top 50 environment policy think tanks—a result attained consistently over the last decade.

This shows that the research and policy advice being generated at the University is among the best anywhere, and is of particular relevance to the Asia–Pacific region.

Our beginnings

The New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute (NZCCRI) was established in 2008 by Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington to develop interdisciplinary research into all aspects of climate change. The Institute is a founding member of the New Zealand Climate Change Centre .

How we work

We are a small team of researchers and policy thinkers who work at the interface between climate change science and the decisions people have to make about climate change.

We do high-quality academic research into climate change issues, and we aim to choose research topics of real interest to decision-makers in New Zealand and elsewhere. We work with world-class researchers to better understand and inform the decisions people are facing regarding climate change.

Bridging natural and social science

We develop, disseminate, and discuss interdisciplinary climate change research, with a particular emphasis on work that spans the natural and social sciences. To do this, we draw on the skills and experience of researchers in New Zealand and abroad to produce collaborative research that is of international scholarly significance and that has relevance to domestic and international policy.

Helping to guide policy

We work closely with New Zealand’s Crown Research Institutes, universities, and other research organisations to help people govern, anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to climate change.

Our aim is to produce high-quality, decision-relevant research on climate change, and to deliver this to private and public sector decision makers.

Climate change scenarios for New Zealand

Projections of how climate change is likely to affect New Zealand.

On this page

What is a climate change scenario?

• Downscaling to New Zealand

New Zealand regional climate change scenarios

Changes in extremes.

This material is based on the IPCC 6 th Assessment report.

For a summary of likely impacts based on the IPCC 6 th Assessment report, see Aotearoa New Zealand climate change projections guidance .

See  Climate Change Projections for New Zealand  for the detailed 2016 NIWA report to Ministry for the Environment on New Zealand climate change projections based on the IPCC 5 th Assessment.

Predicting human-induced ("anthropogenic") changes in climate, over the next 100 years, for a particular part of New Zealand requires:

• A prediction of global greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions for the next century
• A global carbon cycle model to convert these emissions into changes in carbon dioxide concentrations (and similar models for calculating concentrations of other greenhouse gases and aerosols)
• A coupled atmosphere-ocean global circulation model (AOGCM) which uses the greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration information to predict climate variations forward in time.
• Downscaling of the AOGCM results through a procedure which takes account of the influence of New Zealand’s topography on local climate. This can be done either statistically or with a high resolution regional climate model.

Given our current knowledge and modelling technology, there are uncertainties in each of these steps. For example, emission predictions depend on the difficult task of predicting human behaviour, such as changes in population, economic growth, technology, energy availability and national and international policies, including predicting the results of international negotiations on constraining greenhouse gas emissions. Our understanding of the carbon cycle and of sources and sinks of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases is still incomplete. As discussed in NIWA’s climate modelling web page, there are significant uncertainties in current global climate model predictions—particularly at the regional level.

The climate change scenario approach recognises these uncertainties. A scenario is a scientifically-based projection of one plausible future climate for a region. For guidance on regional impacts of climate change, a range of scenarios is desirable. These can span credible estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions, and the uncertainty range in climate model predictions.

IPCC 6 th assessment scenarios

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) ( O’Neill et al., 2017 ) . The SSP scenarios start in 2015, and are abbreviated as SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, in the order of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The SSPs represent the outcomes of a range of twenty-first century climate policies. The following definition of each SSP is adapted from IPCC (2021):

• SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 are scenarios with very low and low greenhouse gas emissions, with CO 2 emissions declining to net zero around or after 2050, followed by varying levels of net negative CO 2 emissions.
• SSP2-4.5 is an intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, with CO 2 emissions remaining around current levels until the middle of the century.
• SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are high and very high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, with CO 2 emissions that roughly double from current levels by 2100 and 2050, respectively.

Downscaling to New Zealand  

Six GCMs were selected for ‘dynamical’ downscaling, and some results are presented below. For this downscaling approach, six models were used to drive a global atmopsheric model with higher resolution over New Zealand.

The six models were chosen to validate well on present climate. Daily output data were further downscaled to a 5-kilometre grid for the following climate variables: 

Table: Summary details of the various climate indicators provided through a web portal hosted by the Ministry for the Environment . A cross indicates whether the indicator is provided in annual and seasonal formats.

Figure 2 shows temperature projections over New Zealand to the year 2120 from the 24 climate simulations carried out by NIWA (6 models by 4 SSPs).

Mean temperature

Figure 3 below shows the regional model projections of New Zealand mean temperature at the end of the century (2081-2090 average, relative to 1986-2005) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. Temperature increases everywhere, and the increases tend to be larger in summer, and in the North Island, and at higher altitude.

Precipitation

Figure 4 below shows the regional model projections of New Zealand mean precipitation at the end of the century (2081-2090 average, relative to 1986-2005), under RCP8.5. In summer, precipitation generally either decreases or shows little change for most of the country, except for the West Coast of the South Island, and parts of Canterbury. In winter, precipitation changes show a pattern of increases in the west and south, and decreases in the east and north of the country, reflecting an increase in prevailing westerly quarter winds. Small changes in precipitation are usually a consequence of lack of consensus between the different climate models in the seasonal changes in circulation.

The greatest impact of climate change is likely to be experienced first by changes in extremes rather than by changes in mean conditions.

High and low temperature extremes

Increasing temperatures result in more “hot days” and fewer frosts. Figure 5 quantifies these changes by the end of the century. New Zealand, with its maritime climate, does not experience the extreme high temperatures that occur in many other parts of the world. A daily maximum temperature threshold of 25°C has therefore been chosen to mark a “hot day” in Figure 5. This threshold has a practical application for New Zealand agriculture—beef and dairy cattle tend to start experiencing heat stress at temperatures above this threshold.

Hot days increase much more in already warmer regions of the country (like the north of the North Island), whereas cold (frosty) nights will show much larger decreases in occurrence in colder regions. For example, very little change in frost frequency occurs in warmer coastal parts of the North Island.

Heavy rainfall and dry days

A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and so the potential for more intense rainfall events is increased. Cycling of water through the atmosphere (i.e., evaporating from the surface, transportation by winds, and ultimately precipitating out) accelerates under global warming by about 3% per degree of warming, which is not as fast as the rate of increase in moisture holding capacity (about 7-8% per degree of warming). Thus, recharge of atmospheric moisture takes a bit longer and results in more dry days in many locations. Thus for rainfall, as opposed to temperatures, extremes increase at both ends of the spectrum: more heavy rainfall and more dry days.

Figure 6 illustrates this pattern of extremes. Almost the entire country shows some increase in heavy rainfall, with increase above 30% in much of Otago and Southland. “Heavy” or “extreme” rainfall is defined here as the 99 th percentile of the daily rainfall distribution over 1986-2005 (at every 5 km pixel on the map). For places where it rains, on average, every 3 or 4 days, this corresponds approximately to the average annual maximum. More extreme rainfall, such as 1 in 100 year events, are expected to show even larger increases.

The number of dry days (daily precipitation of less than 1mm) increases over most of New Zealand. The banded pattern over the Southern Alps is thought to be due, at least in part, to more precipitation falling as rain which falls out more quickly in the west, compared to snow which falls more slowly and gets carried further across the mountains.

Strong winds

Figure 7 shows projected changes in strong winds. As with rainfall, the 99 th percentile threshold is determined (for both present and future climate) by ranking daily values over a 20-year period (1986-2005 and 2081-2100). The figure maps the percentage change in the 99 th percentile threshold.

The largest increases in extreme daily wind speed occur in coastal Canterbury and central Otago, with increases in excess of 10%, by the end of the century. It is likely that these increases are associated with stronger foehn winds in the lee of the Southern Alps, occurring in winter and spring with stronger prevailing westerlies.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.

Ministry for the Environment, 2016. Climate Change Projections for New Zealand: Atmospheric Projections based on Simulations undertaken for the IPCC Fifth Assessment . Prepared by A.B. Mullan, A. Sood, and S. Stuart. NIWA Client Report WLG2015-31. June 2016.

van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque JF, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith S, Rose SK. 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview . Climatic Change 109: 5–31.

New report highlights pressures on Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate  

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are changing Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate, impacting the environment, communities, and the economy, according to a new report.  

Last updated: 11 October 2023

• Climate change

On this page

• Read the report
• Latest atmosphere and climate indicators [Stats NZ website]
• Four story maps look at the impacts our changing climate is having on the plants and animals that call Aotearoa New Zealand home.  

The Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ have released the latest, three-yearly update about the state of Aotearoa’s atmosphere and climate.

Further evidence that emissions from human activities are putting pressure on our climate

Our atmosphere and climate 2023 provides further evidence that emissions from human activities are putting pressure on our climate, which is adversely impacting the environment, communities, Māori interests, infrastructure, and the economy.

The Ministry’s Deputy Secretary – Joint Evidence, Data and Insights Group, Natasha Lewis, says eight of the ten warmest years recorded in Aotearoa up to 2022 have been in the last decade.

“Even minor changes in our climate can have big effects on our environment. Rising temperatures have a significant effect on agriculture, energy demand, ecosystems, and recreation,” she says.

Variations in rainfall, more frequent droughts and ocean warming to record levels

Aotearoa is also experiencing variations in rainfall, more frequent droughts and ocean warming to record levels. Glaciers are in retreat and sea levels around parts of the country rose twice as fast in the last 60 years as they did in the previous 60 years. The frequency of extreme temperature events in Aotearoa has doubled due to human activities.

“This has consequences for the things we value most, our safety and security, the places we live, our livelihoods and economy and our wellbeing.”

About 750,000 New Zealanders and 500,000 buildings worth more than $145 billion are near rivers and in coastal areas already exposed to extreme flooding. Major urban centres, sites of cultural significance, taonga (treasured) species, and food security are also at risk in these areas.

“Many sectors of our economy rely on natural resources such as water, which depend heavily on rainfall and temperature or are in areas that are prone to flooding. The cost of responding to extreme weather events is likely to increase.”

Impact on biodiversity and ecosystems

A key theme of the report is the impact that climate change is having on biodiversity and ecosystems. This natural infrastructure acts as a buffer against the worst effects of climate change. For example, restored wetlands can absorb the shock of storm surges and help to protect communities against sea level rise. Native forests and restored floodplains reconnected to wetlands can slow and retain water during storms, helping to reduce flooding.

“Human activities are driving biodiversity losses. It is now a question of how close we are to tipping points, beyond which large and, in some cases, irreversible changes will be unavoidable.”

Looking ahead

Building on Our atmosphere and climate 2020, this report also includes a series of evidence-based assessments about the outlook for atmosphere and climate.  

“Looking ahead, as well as behind, represents an important shift in our approach to environmental reporting. We hope that this information helps people and organisations to understand climate change better and plan for the future.”

What’s in the Our atmosphere and climate 2023 report?

The report brings together recently updated Stats NZ indicator data and insights from research literature to highlight pressures on the atmosphere and climate. These can cause, or contribute to, changes in the state of the environment, which have various impacts. Key insights from the report include:

• Emissions from human activities put the most pressure on our atmosphere and climate.
• Our gross greenhouse gas emissions increased between 1990 and 2021, though they have remained relatively stable since 2006, despite increases in population and economic activity.
• In 2021, gross emissions further declined by 0.7 percent compared to 2020, largely due to decreases in emissions across the agriculture sector.
• The two largest contributors to our gross emissions in 2021 were the agriculture sector at 49 percent, and the energy sector (including transport) at 41 percent.
• Methane and nitrous oxide, largely from agricultural sources, made up over half of our gross emissions (43 and 10 percent respectively).
• The remaining emissions consisted mostly of carbon dioxide (45 percent), largely from Energy and the Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sectors.
• Our net emissions (total emissions plus any emissions added or removed by land use, land-use change, and forestry sector) increased by 25 percent between 1990 and 2021, due to the underlying increase in gross emissions.
• Annual average temperature in Aotearoa increased by 1.26 (± 0.27) degrees Celsius between 1909 and 2022 (114 years), with eight of the 10 warmest years on record in the last decade.
• Agriculture and horticulture growing seasons are lengthening, and frost days are declining in most places in Aotearoa.
• Annual rainfall during the last 60 years has changed in most places in Aotearoa, with the south becoming wetter and the north and east becoming drier. Extreme rainfall is also changing in most places.
• The frequency of medium-term (agricultural) drought is increasing in many places in Aotearoa.
• Extreme winds are decreasing at most sites in Aotearoa, which may be due to a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) phase.
• Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense. The frequency of extreme temperature events in Aotearoa has doubled due to human influence.
• Annual mean coastal sea levels rose faster (relative to land) between 1961 and 2020 than between 1901 and 1960 at all four longer-term monitoring sites around Aotearoa.
• Changing ocean currents and rising sea levels have led to a loss of nesting sites for various shorebirds and declining populations of tītī (sooty shearwater or mutton-bird).
• The air-marine heatwaves in 2017/18 and 2021/22 caused bleaching and necrosis of sponges, mass mortality of kororā (little penguin) in Bay of Plenty and widespread loss of rimurapa (southern bull kelp).
• Spatial mapping shows that sites which are of significance to Māori in Taranaki, Auckland, the Coromandel, northern Hawkes Bay, Tasman, and parts of Canterbury and Otago are at risk of coastal erosion.
• The Māori economy is particularly vulnerable to climate change because 50 percent of Aotearoa’s fishing quota, 40 percent of forestry, 30 percent of lamb production, 30 percent of sheep and beef production, 10 percent of dairy production and 10 percent of kiwifruit production is in Māori ownership.
• About 750,000 people and 500,000 buildings, worth more than $145 billion, are near rivers and in coastal areas already exposed to extreme flooding.
• Treasury estimates that the cost of repairing damage caused by Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland floods in 2023 to be between $9-$14.5 billion.
• It is highly likely the world will not meet Paris Agreement long-term goals of limiting global temperature increase during the 21st century to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
• It is highly likely that Aotearoa will experience increased temperature and changing rainfall patterns until 2050 and that extreme weather events will become increasingly frequent and severe.
• It is almost certain that climate change will continue to increase risk to Aotearoa’s native and endemic species.
• It is highly likely that climate change will continue to adversely impact our infrastructure and communities, threatening our wellbeing, connection to place and livelihoods.
• It is highly likely that health and wellbeing outcomes will deteriorate because of climate change and biodiversity loss, including the introduction of infectious diseases and food insecurity.
• It is highly likely that climate-related impacts will displace Māori in some places, disrupting the transmission of location-specific mātauranga Māori and tikanga practices.

Education resources

Alongside the Our atmosphere and climate 2023 report, the Ministry has also used the digital storytelling platform ArcGIS StoryMaps to look at the impacts our changing climate is having on the plants and animals that call Aotearoa New Zealand home.  

 Four stories , which include, photos, maps, videos, graphics and interactive features, show how climate change is causing:     

• our glaciers to disappear and our snowlines to retreat, impacting biodiversity 
• trees in our forests to produce more seeds, increasing the number of pests that predate on birds 
• our oceans to warm, rise and become more acidic, which is impacting marine species 
• stronger cyclones, hotter heatwaves and more frequent droughts and wildfires that result in losses and damages for nature and people.   

Waikato University’s Science Learning Hub has also produced resources for teachers and students to complement the official report.  

Media enquiries

For further information and requests for comments about the report, contact the Ministry for the Environment media team:

• 027 231 6930 
• [email protected]

For technical information about the environment indicators, contact the Stats NZ media team: 

• 021 285 9191
• [email protected]

About environmental reporting

The Environmental Reporting Act 2015 requires the Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ to publish environmental domain reports independently of Ministers of the Crown.   

The Act also sets the publication cycles for reports and these cannot be changed. Our last two reports on atmosphere and climate were published in October 2017 and October 2020. Our atmosphere and climate 2023 updates these reports and continues the three-yearly reporting cycle.    

For more information see Environmental-reporting